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February 26, 2016 CHART OF THE WEEK STAT OF THE WEEK At this week’s Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, the event’s producer, GSMA, revealed that the mobile industry contributed 4.2% of global GDP, or $3.1 trillion, in 2015. GSMA estimates that the mobile industry will add $3.7 trillion to the global economy by 2020. Sterling Falls to SevenYear Low Against the US Dollar on Brexit Fears 4.2% DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 This week, members of the FBIC Global Retail & Technology team attended the Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2016 in Barcelona, where presentations focused on “the mobile revolution,” the Internet of Things (IoT), mobile security, the value of the mobile economy and the boom in mobile video. A second annual study by Facebook estimates that 3.2 billion people were online as of the end of 2015, up from 3 billion in 2014. The increase was partly attributable to more affordable data and rising global incomes. Over the past 10 years, connectivity has increased by approximately 200 to 300 million people per year. About 35% of global online sales happened on mobile phones in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to Criteo. Japan, the UK and South Korea are the three countries where smartphones account for the highest percentage of mobile transactions. Sony has announced that it will build a centralized platform for educational assessment and testing scores, and it plans to take advantage of blockchain, the technology that underpins the bitcoin cryptocurrency, in order to do so. Blockchain will be used to house educational data that can be securely shared with other services and third parties. February 26, 2016 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016

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Page 1: Weekly Insights Feb 26 - fbicgroup...!4 February 26, 2016 DEBORAH(WEINSWIG,(EXECUTIVE(DIRECTOR–HEAD(OF(GLOBAL(RETAIL(&(TECHNOLOGY(DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM((US:(917.655.6790((HK:(852.6119.1779((CN

       

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

                                           

 

 

 

 

   

   +5.4%  CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 • At  this  week’s  Mobile  World  Congress  in  Barcelona,  the  

event’s  producer,  GSMA,  revealed  that  the  mobile  industry  contributed  4.2%  of  global  GDP,  or  $3.1  trillion,  in  2015.  

• GSMA  estimates  that  the  mobile  industry  will  add  $3.7  trillion  to  the  global  economy  by  2020.  

 

Sterling  Falls  to  Seven-­‐Year  Low    Against  the  US  Dollar  on  Brexit  Fears  4.2%  

 

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology

Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected]

US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

• This  week,  members  of  the  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  team  attended  the  Mobile  World  Congress  (MWC)  2016  in  Barcelona,  where  presentations  focused  on  “the  mobile  revolution,”  the  Internet  of  Things  (IoT),  mobile  security,  the  value  of  the  mobile  economy  and  the  boom  in  mobile  video.  

• A  second  annual  study  by  Facebook  estimates  that  3.2  billion  people  were  online  as  of  the  end  of  2015,  up  from  3  billion  in  2014.  The  increase  was  partly  attributable  to  more  affordable  data  and  rising  global  incomes.  Over  the  past  10  years,  connectivity  has  increased  by  approximately  200  to  300  million  people  per  year.  

• About  35%  of  global  online  sales  happened  on  mobile  phones  in  the  fourth  quarter  of  2015,  according  to  Criteo.  Japan,  the  UK  and  South  Korea  are  the  three  countries  where  smartphones  account  for  the  highest  percentage  of  mobile  transactions.  

• Sony  has  announced  that  it  will  build  a  centralized  platform  for  educational  assessment  and  testing  scores,  and  it  plans  to  take  advantage  of  blockchain,  the  technology  that  underpins  the  bitcoin  cryptocurrency,  in  order  to  do  so.  Blockchain  will  be  used  to  house  educational  data  that  can  be  securely  shared  with  other  services  and  third  parties.  

February 26, 2016

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Page 2: Weekly Insights Feb 26 - fbicgroup...!4 February 26, 2016 DEBORAH(WEINSWIG,(EXECUTIVE(DIRECTOR–HEAD(OF(GLOBAL(RETAIL(&(TECHNOLOGY(DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM((US:(917.655.6790((HK:(852.6119.1779((CN

       

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

MOBILE  WORLD  CONGRESS  2016  This  week,  members   of   the   FBIC  Global   Retail  &   Technology   team  attended   the   Mobile   World   Congress   (MWC)   2016   in   Barcelona.  Several   presentations   focused   on   “the   mobile   revolution,”   and  discussion   topics   ranged   from   the   Internet   of   Things   (IoT)   in  consumer   and   industrial   applications,   to   mobile   security   and   the  risks   the   IoT  presents,   to   the  value  of   the  mobile  economy,   to   the  boom   in  mobile   video.   Here,   we   summarize   a   few   of   our   favorite  presentations.  

First,  to  provide  an  idea  of  the  size  of  the  global  mobile  economy,  here  are  some  figures  supplied  by  the  GSMA,  the   organization   that   produces   the   MWC   each   year:   some   7   billion   devices   are   currently   connected   to   the  Internet,  and  that  figure  is  estimated  to  grow  by  another  1  billion  by  2020;  the  mobile  economy  was  worth  $3.1  trillion   in   2015,   equivalent   to   4.2%   of   global   GDP;   and   the   mobile   economy   employs   roughly   30–32   million  people.  COMPANIES  OLD  AND  NEW  ADAPT  TO  A  MOBILE  WORLD  On  day  one  of  the  MWC,  we  heard  from  the  CEOs  of  Ford  and  PayPal.  One  is  an  “old”  company  with  a  heritage  spanning  more  than  a  century,  while  the  other  is  a  company  that  developed  with  the  Internet;  both  are  evolving  in   response   to  mobile   technology.  Mark  Fields,  President  and  CEO  of  Ford,   talked  about  how  Ford  has   tapped  into   the   connected-­‐devices   revolution   and   the   changes   we   have   seen   in   the   way   consumers   live   and   use  transportation.   In   response   to   these  changes,   Ford   is  moving   into   the   transportation   services  market,  he   said,  such  as  with  its  GoDrive  car  rental  service  in  London.  It   is  also  conducting  research  into  self-­‐driving  cars;  Fields  said  Ford  has  the  largest  autonomous  test  fleet  among  all  the  automakers.  The  company  is  investing  in  data  and  analytics,  too.  At  the  MWC,  it  unveiled  its  mobile  wallet  and  membership  service,  Ford  Pass,  which  aims  “to  do  for  the  automotive  industry  what  iTunes  did  for  music.”  Dan  Schulman,  President  and  CEO  of  PayPal,  then  discussed  how  his  company  is  evolving  into  a  mobile  payments  company.   Schulman   observes   two   major   trends   in   mobile:   it   is   redefining   retail   and   commerce   and   it   is  democratizing  money  by  making  financial  services  easier,  faster  and  less  expensive.  PayPal  is  expanding  options,  both  in  terms  of  how  users  can  pay  (no  longer  simply  by  credit  or  debit  card)  and  where  and  how  they  can  use  PayPal   (from   in-­‐store   mobile   payments   to   in-­‐app   transactions).   Still,   millions   of   people   remain   outside   the  financial   system,   Schulman   said.   For   them,   innovative   firms   such   as   PayPal   can   drive   down   costs   and   make  financial  services  more  accessible  via  a  mobile-­‐first  proposition.  THE  MOBILE  CENTURY?  On   day   two,   Laura   Desmond,   CRO   of   Publicis   and   CEO   of   Starcom  Mediavest   Group,   asked   attendees   if   they  thought   the   21st   century  will   be   “the  mobile   century.”   It  may  well   be,   she   concluded,   given   that   “mobile”   is  rapidly   being   redefined;   the   term   now   encompasses   video,   virtual   reality   and   augmented   reality,   and   it   will  continue  to  evolve,  she  said.  Desmond’s  compelling  presentation  was  predicated  on  this  being  a  century  of  “more”  for  mobile,  and  she   laid  out  four  areas  where  this  applies.  First,  more  devices:  there  are  already  3.7  billion  mobile  phones  in  use,  and  the  number  is  projected  to  rise  to  6.5  billion  in  2020,  with  no  plateau  in  sight  and  with  uptake  not  confined  to  certain  types  of  consumers,  regions  or  economies.  Second,  more  attention:  people  are  spending  more  time  on  mobile,  seven   hours   per   day   on   average.   Third,  more   commerce:   global  m-­‐commerce   is   expected   to   rise   by   200%  by  2018.   Fourth,   more   global:   4G   coverage   continues   to   expand   in   developing   markets,   meaning   more   mobile  consumers  are  coming  on-­‐stream.  All  this  adds  up  to  people  having  “connected  freedom,”  Desmond  said.  This  changes  how  they  behave  and  what  they  expect—for  instance,  consumers  expect  more  immediacy  and  greater  personalization.  In  Desmond’s  world  of  advertising,  this  poses  particular  challenges,  and  she  recommended  that  agencies,  publishers  and  brands  work  together   to  offer  mobile   content   that   is   valued  by  millennials—namely,   content  based  on   storytelling,   sharing  and  participating.  THE  PACE  OF  CHANGE  IS  UNLIKELY  TO  LET  UP  A  key  takeaway  from  the  MWC  is  that  mobile  is  rapidly  changing  how  consumers  behave  and  what  they  expect.  It   is   not   simply   about  more   consumers   joining   the  mobile   cohort;   it   is   also   about   existing  mobile   consumers  changing  their  behaviors  and  activities.  Several  speakers,   including  Facebook  CEO  Mark  Zuckerberg,  noted  that  video  on  mobile  devices  has  boomed  very  recently,  and  many  predict  that  mobile  virtual  reality   is  on  the  way.  Other  changes  are  sure  to  follow.  “Mobile  Is  Everything”  was  the  theme  of  this  year’s  MWC,  and  it  appears  that  every  area  of  commerce  will  be  affected  by  the  mobile  revolution.  Companies  will  need  to  adapt,  fast,  in  order  to  cater  to  empowered,  mobile-­‐enabled  consumers.  

Page 3: Weekly Insights Feb 26 - fbicgroup...!4 February 26, 2016 DEBORAH(WEINSWIG,(EXECUTIVE(DIRECTOR–HEAD(OF(GLOBAL(RETAIL(&(TECHNOLOGY(DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM((US:(917.655.6790((HK:(852.6119.1779((CN

       

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

 

             

 

         

 

Sterling  Falls  to  Seven-­‐Year  Low  Against  the  US  Dollar  on  Brexit  Fears  Figure  1.  GBP  vs.  USD  Daily  Exchange  Rate:  January  1,  2009–February  23,  2016  

Source:  OANDA    • The  announcement  of  a  public  vote  in  June  on  whether  Britain  should  leave  the  European  Union  

(EU)  has  has  resulted  in  the  pound  sterling  dropping  to  a  seven-­‐year  low  against  the  US  dollar.  

• UK  Prime  Minister  David  Cameron  supports   the  UK  staying   in   the  EU.  However,  London  Mayor  Boris  Johnson  this  week  became  one  of  the  biggest  names  to  back  the  campaign  to  leave  the  EU,  which  has  added  pressure  to  financial  markets.  

• According  to  the  Financial  Times,  if  the  sterling  falls  by  15%–20%,  UK  inflation  could  rise  by  up  to  five  percentage  points.  

   

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FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING  

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

• This  week,  the  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  team  is  attending  Mobile  World  Congress  2016  in  Barcelona,  Spain.    

• At  this  week’s  Mobile  World  Congress  in  Barcelona,  the  event’s  producer,  GSMA,  revealed  that  the  mobile  industry  contributed  4.2%,  or  $3.1  trillion,  of  global  GDP  in  2015.  

• GSMA  estimates  the  mobile  industry  will  add  $3.7  trillion  to  the  global  economy  by  2020.  

4.2%  Source:  GSMA  

 CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

US  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change  YoY   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  ($  Mil.)  Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014    

Gap   4QE  Jan.      4,385      4,708      (6.9)   32.8   35.2   (238)    214     319      (32.9)   3,721     3,709    

Carter's   4QE  Jan.      866      869      (0.3)   41.9   41.0   95    73     69      5.8     594     855    

Chico's   4QE  Jan.      627      657      (4.6)   50.7   49.9   79    (21)   (32)    34.4     1,547     1,518    

Dillard's   4QE  Jan.      2,074      2,136      (2.9)   29.7   32.9   (316)    84     131      (35.9)   297     297    

Gildan  Activewear  

4QE  Jan.      544      391      39.1     26.7   11.0   1566    68     (41)   NM   NM   NM  

Home  Depot   4QE  Jan.      20,980      19,162      9.5     34.1   34.3   (24)    1,471     1,379      6.7     2,274     2,269    

Kohl's   4QE  Jan.      6,387      6,337      0.8     33.1   33.9   (81)    296     369      (19.8)   1,164     1,162    

L  Brands   4QE  Jan.      4,395      4,068      8.0     45.6   45.1   47    636     565      12.6     650     738    

Lowe's   4QE  Jan.      13,236      12,540      5.6     34.7   34.7   1    11     450      (97.6)   1,857     1,793    

Macy's   4QE  Jan.      8,869      9,364      (5.3)   37.4   40.3   (288)    543     793      (31.5)   870     823    

Sears   4QE  Jan.      7,303      8,099      (9.8)   21.8   24.4   (258)    (580)   (159)    NM     1,672     1,725    

Steven  Madden   4QE  Dec.      344      343      0.3     36.0   34.4   164    26     21      23.8     169     160    

Target   4QE  Dec.      21,626      21,751      (0.6)   27.9   28.4   (56)    1,426     (2,640)    154.0     169     160    

TJX   4QE  Dec.      8,388      8,304      1.0     23.8   28.2   (440)    666     648      2.8     3,614     3,395    

Source:  Company  reports  

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  State  of  Connectivity  2015:  A  Report  on  Global  Internet  Access  (February  21)  Facebook  

• Facebook  published   its  second  annual  report,  entitled  State  of  Connectivity  2015:  A  Report  on  Global   Internet  Access,   in  which   the  company  takes  a  close   look  at   the  current   state  of  global   Internet   connectivity,  how   it  has   changed   since  2014  and  how  we  can  use   the  data  identified  to  generate  new  insights.  

• At  the  end  of  2015,  an  estimated  3.2  billion  people  were  online,  up  from  3  billion   in  2014.  The  increase  is  partly  attributable  to  more  affordable  data  and  rising  global  incomes  in  2015.  Over   the   past   10   years,   connectivity   has   increased   by   approximately   200   to   300   million  people  per  year.  While  this  is  positive  news  in  terms  of  growth,  it  also  means  that  4.1  billion  people  still  did  not  have  Internet  access  in  2015.  

Foursquare  Will  Tell  Businesses  When  Their  Ads  Bring  You  into  an  Actual  Store  (February  23)  TechCrunch  

• Foursquare   announced   a   new   product   that   should   help   brick-­‐and-­‐mortar   advertisers  measure  the  effectiveness  of  their  campaigns.  

• With   Attribution   Powered   by   Foursquare,   the   company   is   making   its   data   available   to  advertisers  even  if  they  do  not  run  campaigns  in  the  Foursquare  or  Swarm  apps.  Naturally,  that  data  is  focused  on  location,  and  that  may  be  Foursquare’s  big  advantage  over  Facebook  and  Twitter,  which  have  also  been  working  to  expand  their  ad  capabilities  beyond  their  own  properties.  

Adidas’  $600-­‐a-­‐Year  Subscription  for  Workout  Clothes  Is  Testing  the  Limits  of  a  Big  Shopping  Trend  (February  18)  The  Washington  Post  

• Adidas  has  joined  the  subscription-­‐box  game  in  a  move  to  appeal  to  female  shoppers  and  so  grab  back  market  share  from  rivals  Nike  and  Under  Armour.  

• Subscribers   to   the   Avenue   A   service   will   receive   a   quarterly   delivery   of   a   curated   box   of  sneakers,  apparel  and  other  workout  gear.  The  mix  and  style  of   the   items  will  always  be  a  surprise,   but   seasonally   appropriate.   Some   items   will   be   exclusive   or   limited   edition   and  others  will  be  widely  sold  retail  fare.  

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Luxury  Retail  Just  Found  a  New  Way  to  Save  Itself:  Logos  Are  Back  (February  22)  Business  Insider  

• Luxury   retail   has  been   faltering   as   young  people   gravitate   toward  practical   purchases.   But  the   luxury   retail   industry  might   have   a   solution,   as   consumers  who   have   been   eschewing  bold  logos  in  favor  of  more  simple  designs  are  once  again  showing  an  interest  in  logos.    

 EUROPE  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  ($  Mil.)  Change  in  $  

Change  in  Reporting  Currency   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change  

Net  Income    ($  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)       2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014    

Kering   FYE  Dec.  31,  2015                            12,862    

                                           13,337    

                                                             (3.6)                  15.4     61.1     62.7    

                         (165.5)   755.2     1,366.0    

                                       (44.7)  

                 1,264    

                         1,186    

DIA   FYE  Dec.  31,  2015                                  9,910    

                                           10,644    

                                                             (6.9)                  11.4     22.4     22.0    

                                   33.5     332.2     437.4    

                                       (24.1)  

                 7,718    

                         7,306    

Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPE  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Grocery  Giants  Refuse  to  Sign  Letter  Calling  for  Britain  to  Remain  in  the  EU  (February  23)  Retail-­‐week.com  

• Tesco,  Morrisons   and   Sainsbury’s   have   refused   to   sign   a   letter   from  business   leaders   that  campaigns  for  the  UK  to  remain  in  the  EU.  Signatories  from  198  British  businesses  are  part  of  the  anti-­‐Brexit  campaign,  and  36  of  them  are  chairmen  or  CEOs  of  FTSE  100  companies.  

• Executives  of  Marks  &  Spencer,  Kingfisher  and  Dixons  Carphone  are  among  those  who  have  signed   the   letter,  which   states   that   a   Brexit  would   deter   investment   in   the  UK.   The   three  grocers,  who  refuse  to  sign,  feel  the  decision  to  remain  in  the  EU  should  be  “a  matter  for  the  British  people”  to  consider.  

Over  a  Third  of  Global  E-­‐Commerce  Sales  Are  Made  Through  Mobile  (February  22)  Criteo.com  

• About  35%  of  global  online  sales  happened  on  mobile  phones  in  the  fourth  quarter  of  2015,  according   to   digital   ad   agency   Criteo’s   report   on   mobile   commerce.   Some   3,300   global  companies  and  1.7  billion  transactions  were  studied  in  the  report.  

• Japan,  the  UK  and  South  Korea  are  the  three  countries  where  smartphones  account  for  the  highest   percentage   of   mobile   transactions.   The   report   also   found   that   the   majority   of  purchases   are   not   done   on   a   single   device   but   on   multiple   devices.   This   means   that   a  customer   could   have   viewed   a   product   on   one   device   but   completed   the   transaction   on  another.  

Etsy  Sellers  to  Get  Retail  Space  in  Parisian  Department  Stores  (February  22)  Retaildetail.eu  

• Department  stores  in  Paris,  such  as  Galeries  Lafayette  and  BHV  Marais,  will  soon  offer  floor  space  to  sellers  from  Etsy’s  online  marketplace.  French  designers  from  the  e-­‐commerce  site  will  first  showcase  their  products  at  BHV  Marais  from  April  13  to  May  7,  and  then  at  Galeries  Lafayette’s  store  from  June  6  until  the  end  of  December.  

• The  department  stores  decided  to  collaborate  with  Etsy  after  over  200  of  its  French  designers  had   a   successful   run   with   pop-­‐up   stores   that   catered   to   over   35,000   visitors.   The   online  marketplace  has  a  customer  base  of  54  million  and  1.5  million  active  sellers.  

Amazon  Begins  Supply  of  Fresh  Produce  in  Milan  (February  18)  Retailanalysis.igd.com  

• Since   February   15,   2015,   Amazon  has   been   offering   fresh   produce   through   its   Prime  Now  service  in  Milan.  The  same-­‐day  delivery  service  for  Prime  members  already  offers  its  Italian  

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

customers  frozen  food,  cold  food  and  bakery  items.  It  has  now  added  30  types  of  fruits  and  vegetables  to  the  20,000  plus  products  available.  

• The  addition  of  fresh  food  to  its  Italian  Prime  Now  service  is  a  significant  move  for  Amazon  in  Europe.  Fresh  food  was  previously  available  only  through  Amazon  Fresh  in  New  York  and  on  the  West  Coast  in  the  US.  The  company  has  not  announced  plans  to  launch  Amazon  Fresh  in  the  UK  yet,  but  it  is  widely  speculated  to  do  so  in  2016.  

ASDA  Reports  5.5%  Decline  in  Fourth  Quarter  Comps,  4.7%  Decline  in  Full  Year  Comps  (February  18)  Reuters.com  

• Walmart-­‐owned  British  supermarket  chain  ASDA  reported  a  5.5%  decline   in   its  comparable  sales,  excluding  fuel,  and  a  4.4%  decline   in  net  sales,   in   its  fiscal  fourth  quarter.   Its  full  year  comparable   sales  were   down   4.7%.  ASDA  CEO  Andy   Clarke   told   reporters   that   he   forecast  only  a  marginal  increase  in  sales  for  the  following  year,  but  he  was  confident  that  the  grocer  would  maintain  profitability.  

• When  asked  about  the  ongoing  price  war  among  the  big  four  British  grocers,  Clarke  said  that  ASDA   is  determined   to  win   it.  He  added   that  although  market   share   is   important,   financial  control  and  stability  are  more  important,  and  will  enable  ASDA  to  win  the  price  war.  

ASIA  TECH  HEADLINES  Mobile  P2P  Marketplace  Swapit  Raises  New  Funding  (February  22)  TechinAsia  

• Swapit   is   a   mobile   hyper-­‐local   marketplace   from   Hong   Kong   that   allows   people   who   live  close   to   one   another   to   trade,   sell   and   buy   secondhand   items.   The   startup   announced  additional  funding  from  private  equity  investors,  without  disclosing  either  the  amount  or  the  identity  of  the  funds.  

• Swapit  secured  seed  funding  in  December  2015.  The  latest  funds  will  be  used  to  bolster  its  position  in  Hong  Kong  and  to  build  up  its  technology.  The  startup  plans  to  expand  to  other  markets,  mainly  on  the  city  level  rather  than  on  the  country  level.  

Sony  Is  Building  an  Education  and  Testing  Platform  Powered  by  Blockchain  (February  22)  TechCrunch  

• Sony  has  announced  that  it  will  build  a  centralized  platform  for  educational  assessment  and  testing  scores,  and,  in  doing  so,  it  plans  to  take  advantage  of  blockchain,  the  technology  that  underpins  the  bitcoin  cryptocurrency.  

• Blockchain  will   be  used   to  house  educational   data   that   can  be   securely   shared  with  other  services  and  third  parties.  Sony  said  it  believes  it  could  “realize  an  entirely  new  infrastructure  system”  with  this  technology,  which  it  said  could  be  a  central  system  for  students  and  their  test  results.  

Step  Aside  China,  India  Is  the  Go-­‐To  Market  for  Mobile  Payments  (February  22)  e27.co  

• A  report  recently  released  by  MasterCard  found  that  India  was  the  country  most  receptive  to  using  mobile  payments:  76.4%  of  mobile  users  in  India  made  a  mobile  payment  transaction  between  October  and  December  2015.  The  figure  for  China  was  just  0.3%  lower,  while  South  Korea’s  figure  was  62.0%  and  Thailand’s  61.1%.  

• In  the  past  two  years,  mobile  payment  transactions  in  India  grew  by  29.3%.  In  Vietnam  and  Singapore,   transactions   grew   by   17.7%   and   17.1%,   respectively.   In   terms   of   digital   wallet  adoption,  China’s  45%  figure  was  far  higher  than  India’s  36.7%  and  Singapore’s  23.3%.  

   

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Sony  Touts  Al-­‐Powered  Xperia  Ear  and  Eye  (February  22)  ZDNet  

• Sony   is   hoping   to   move   beyond   smartphones   and   tablets   with   a   range   of   new   voice-­‐controlled  wearables   and   devices   for   the   home.   The   artificial   intelligence–powered   Xperia  Ear   is   Sony’s   latest   wearable,   which   functions   as   a   personal   assistant   companion   to   an  Android  smartphone.  

• Owners  can  use  voice  commands  to  initiate  a  call,  search  the  web,  dictate  a  message  or  get  directions.  It  is  meant  to  offer  a  nonintrusive  manner  of  interacting  with  a  smartphone.    

Samsung’s  Bid  for  Sharp  to  Rival  Foxconn:  Report  (February  22)  ZDNet  

• South  Korean  tech  conglomerate  Samsung  has  offered  to  buy  troubled  Japanese  electronics  giant   Sharp   “multiple   times,”   which   may   affect   the   final   takeover   decision,   Nikkei   has  reported.  

• In   December,   Samsung   reportedly   sent   a   notice   to   Sharp,   saying   that   it  was   interested   in  acquiring   Sharp’s   factory   in   Sakai   and   that   it  wanted   to   review   assets   early   this   year.   The  Sakai   factory   is   owned   by   both   Sharp   and   Hon   Hai   Precision,   each   holding   a   38%   stake.  Samsung  wanted  Sharp’s  stake,  the  report  says.  

LATAM  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Latin  American  Millennials  Have  a  Penchant  for  Shopping  Abroad  (February  23)  BNamericas  

• A   study   commissioned  by   PayPal   and   conducted  by   Ipsos   concluded   that  millennials   (ages  18–34)   in  Central  and  South  America  are  more  likely  to  shop  online,  both  domestically  and  cross-­‐border,  than  are  any  other  members  of  the  population.  

• Many   millennials   chose   to   shop   abroad   due   to   a   greater   selection   of   products,   secure  payment  methods  and  free  shipping,  although  there  are  continued  concerns  about  receiving  products,  additional  charges  such  as  custom  tax,  shipping  costs,  unfavorable  exchange  rates,  identity   theft   and   fraud.   The   majority   of   millennials   studied   made   their   transactions   on  desktop  or  laptop  computers,  despite  the  continued  growth  of  smartphones.  

Seven  Brazilian  Banks  to  Offer  Samsung  Pay  This  Year  (February  22)  BNamericas    

• Samsung   closed   a   deal   with   seven   financial   institutions   in   order   to   offer   its   contactless  Samsung   Pay   mobile   wallet   in   Brazil.   Brazil   will   be   the   first   country   in   Latin   America   to  receive  the  service,  which  is  currently  available  only  in  South  Korea  and  the  US.  

• Samsung  Pay  will  support  credit  cards  from  over  70  major  and  regional  banks  in  Brazil,  and  will  be  available  to  users  of  the  Galaxy  S6,  S7,  Note  7,  and  some  A5  and  A6  models.  

Mexican  Textiles  Industry  Fears  TPP  Losses  (February  23)  WWD.com  

• The  Mexican   textiles   industry  may   see   a   sharp   decline   in   exports,   as   the   proposed   Trans-­‐Pacific   Partnership   (TPP)   would   increase   competition   from   Vietnam,   which   has   “an   unfair  sourcing   advantage”   due   to   the   Import   Allowance   Program   and   short-­‐supply   rules   that  enable  Vietnam  to   import   fabric   from  China   relative   to  how  much  cotton   it  buys   from  the  US.  

• Mexican  textile  companies  such  as  Canaintex  plan  to  lobby  Mexican  legislators  to  make  sure  their   interests  are  taken   into  consideration  when  the  TPP  debates  begin   (they  are   likely   to  begin  about  the  same  time  as  in  the  US,  sometime  next  year).  

   

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 Éxito  to  Bolster  Latin  American  Apparel  Business  (February  19)  WWD.com  

• Colombian  hypermarket  group  Éxito  says   it  will  account   for  10%  of  Latin  American  apparel  sales  by  2019,   following   its   acquisition  of   apparel   companies   in  both  Argentina  and  Brazil.    The  company  will  expand  its  apparel  franchise  outside  Colombia,  and  will  expand  its  private  labels.  

• While   Éxito’s  main   source   of   growth  will   be   its  multi-­‐channel   retail   sales,   it   also   plans   to  revamp   its   catalog   and   online   presence,   the   latter   of   which   could   grow   by   20%   by   2019,  according  to  company  officials.  

PayPal  Eyes  Growth  in  Alliance  with  America  Móvil  (February  22)  Bloomberg  

• PayPal  expanded  significantly   into  Latin  America  after  creating  a   relationship  with  America  Móvil   and   its   286  million   subscribers.   The   deal  will   create   digital  wallets   for   customers   in  both  Brazil  and  Mexico.  

• This   expansion  will   help  many   e-­‐commerce   companies   flourish   in   Latin   America,   including  Uber  and  Airbnb.  The  digital  wallets  will  also  help  users  send  money  abroad  more  efficiently  and  pay  for  items  by  scanning  them  with  their  smartphones.  

   

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  9

February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

• E  =  estimated  

   

EARNINGS  CALENDAR    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Sales  (Mil.)       EPS  

Currency  Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

 

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

Foot  Locker   4Q  15   Feb  26   2,007   1,911    

1.12   1.00   USD  

JCPenney   4Q  15   Feb  26   3,984   3,893    

0.21   (0.04)   USD  

Ascena  Retail  Group   2Q  16   Mar  1   1,881   1,269    

(0.01)   0.09   USD  

Dick’s  Sporting  Goods   4Q  15   Mar  1  (E)   2,284   2,160    

1.16   1.30   USD  

Dollar  Tree   4Q  15   Mar  1   5,408   2,476    

1.16   1.07   USD  

Kate  Spade   4Q  15   Mar  1   441   399    

0.32   1.01   USD  

Luxottica   2015   Mar  1   8,943   7,699    

1.78   1.35   EUR  

Ross  Stores   4Q  15   Mar  1   3,212   3,033    

0.65   0.60   USD  

Zalando   2015   Mar  1   2,968   2,214    

0.30   0.21   EUR  

Abercrombie  &  Fitch   4Q  15   Mar  2   1,103   1,120    

0.99   0.98   USD  

American  Eagle  Outfitters   4Q  15   Mar  2   1,117   1,072    

0.42   0.36   USD  

Children’s  Place   4Q  15   Mar  2  (E)   500   479    

1.11   1.04   USD  

Costco   2Q  16   Mar  2   28,637   27,454    

1.28   1.22   USD  

adidas   2015   Mar  3   16,780   14,534    

3.40   2.35   EUR  

Burlington   4Q  15   Mar  3   1,544   1,497    

1.46   1.34   USD  

Delhaize  Group   2015   Mar  3   24,319   21,361    

4.21   0.88   EUR  

Kroger     4Q  15   Mar  3   26,263   25,207    

0.54   0.52   USD  

Big  Lots   4Q  15   Mar  4  (E)   1,603   1,593    

1.98   1.76   USD  

Urban  Outfitters     4Q  15   Mar  7   1,017   1,011    

0.56   0.60   USD  

Vera  Bradley   4Q  15   Mar  9   153   153    

0.41   0.40   USD  

Groupe  Casino   2015   Mar  9   46,525   48,493    

2.60   2.04   EUR  

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)   FBIC  Presenting  

Milan  Fashion  Week   Milan,  Italy   February  24–March  1    

The  NGA  Show     Las  Vegas,  NV   February  28–March  2    

Retail  Supply  Chain  Conference  2016   Dallas,  TX   February  28–March  2    

RSA  2016  –  Israeli  Cyber  Security  Showcase   San  Francisco,  CA   February  29–March  3    

Innovation  Enterprise  Smart  Cities  Innovation  Summit   Singapore   March  2–3    

Paris  Fashion  Week   Paris,  France   March  2–9    

Planalytics  Spring  Preview  with  FBIC:  What  to  Expect   Webinar   March  3   Deborah  Weinswig  

Target  Financial  Community  Meeting   New  York,  NY   March  3    

AdThink  2016:  The  Brightest  in  Brand/Tech   New  York,  NY   March  3    

International  Home  +  Housewares  Show   Chicago,  IL   March  5–8    

Brand  Innovators  Mega-­‐Trends   Dallas,  TX   March  7    

Cal-­‐Israel  Innovation  Expo   San  Diego,  CA   March  7–9    Connected  Shoppers:  Customer  Engagement  and  Retail  Analytics   Webinar   March  8   Deborah  Weinswig  

Brand  Innovators  Future  of  Consumer  Experience   Dallas,  TX   March  8    

Brand  Innovators  Luxury  Brands   Dallas,  TX   March  9    

ICSC  2016  New  England  Retail  Connection   Hartford,  CT   March  9    

Retail  Business  Technology  Expo  2016   London,  UK   March  9–10    

Retail  Design  Expo   London,  UK   March  9–10    

Retail  Marketing  Society  Luncheon  Meeting   New  York,  NY   March  10    

Innovation  Enterprise  Women  in  Strategy  Summit   New  York,  NY   March  10–11    Innovation  Enterprise  Digital  Marketing  Innovation  Summit   New  York,  NY   March  10–11    Innovation  Enterprise  Digital  Strategy  Innovation  Summit   New  York,  NY   March  10–11    

Innovation  Enterprise  Mobile  Innovation  Summit   New  York,  NY   March  10–11    

Brand  Innovators  Mega-­‐Trends   Austin,  TX   March  11    

SXSW  Interactive  &  Film  Conference   Austin,  TX   March  11–20    

Digital  Retail  Forum   Las  Vegas,  NV   March  15    

Wearable  Technology  Show  2016   London,  UK   March  15–16    Bank  of  America  Merrill  Lynch  Consumer  &  Retail  Tech  Conference   New  York,  NY   March  15–16    

Shopper  Marketing  Summit   New  York,  NY   March  15–17    

Retail  Week  Live   London,  UK   March  16–17    

2016  AAFA  Executive  Summit   Washington,  DC   March  16–17    

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February 26, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

   Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  852.6119.1779  China:  86.186.1420.3016  [email protected]    Filippo  Battaini  [email protected]  

Chim  Sau  Wai  [email protected]  

Rachael  Dimit  [email protected]  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]  

John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]  

Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]  

John  Mercer  [email protected]  

Shoshana  Pollack  [email protected]  

Kiril  Popov  [email protected]  

Freda  Wan  [email protected]  

Jing  Wang    [email protected]  

Steven  Winnick  [email protected]  

 HONG  KONG:  10th  Floor,  LiFung  Tower  888  Cheung  Sha  Wan  Road,  Kowloon  Hong  Kong  Tel:  852  2300  2470  

LONDON:  242-­‐246  Marylebone  Road  London,  NW1  6JQ  United  Kingdom  Tel:    44  (0)20  7616  8988    

NEW  YORK:  1359  Broadway,  9th  Floor  New  York,  NY  10018  Tel:  646  839  7017    

 

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