IYF

Head Trader Market Watchlist: 8th - 12th July 2019

Good Morning Trader’s,

Hope you’ve all had a great weekend?

We saw a flurry of Dollar strength to end what was a very slow week following from a higher than expected print for NFP. We do have another light week regarding fundamentals this week and I would always remain cautious trading on a Monday straight after NFP and a major holiday.

A few things to keep an eye on are the multiple CPI reports (inflation) which can affect monetary policy and also on the production/output data points as talk of global slowdown takes hold…..

Let’s see if the SNB (Swiss National Bank) prepare to weaken their currency as that has been the ongoing plan, however against most pairs that has failed so far.

Regarding the Dollar, was Friday's NFP results really enough to hold off rate cuts? In my opinion I highly doubt it, but the markets are likely to take the opportunity to catch more USD buying opportunities before dropping if and when rates are cut by the FED.

It’s important to not marry a bias and remain as fluid as possible within these markets.

Let’s take a look at some of my favourite set up’s below and the overall direction of the pairs on my watchlist.

Please take a look at the ‘Forex Factory’ economic calendar below with fundamentals to watch out for including;

Tuesday: FED Powell Speaking

Wednesday: GBP GDP/Manufacturing Production, CAD Monetary Policy Report & Rate Statement, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday: USD CPI & Core CPI

Friday: USD PPI

IYFDXY (Dollar Index)

Weekly - We saw price failing to break below 96.00 followed by a bullish reversal and close back above 97.00. Notice the morning star candlestick formation - I am expecting a push higher for the USD this week.

Daily - I am expecting some form of a retest of 97.00 followed by a drive higher into the Golden Pocket and psychological level of 98.00. We can then monitor how price reacts around this level.

IYFGOLD

Daily - As we now see Gold is still very much corrective however we did see that Friday ‘sell-off’ following from NFP but price did close back above 1400.00. I think its more likely we will see further downside for Gold with the level of 1350.00 acting as nice area of confluence but just be cautious as any hint of continued trade-war negotiations could spark a further upside rally.

GOLD

4 Hour - The level of 1380.00-1385.00 is holding up well - if we saw a solid rejection off the trend line and close below 1400.00 this could provide us with a nice short term selling opportunity down to 1350.00. Be wary of any breaks above the counter trend line.

IYFEURUSD

Daily - We have now seen a solid breakout below the counter trend line with Friday’s candle printing a bearish engulfing - this is a great example of identifying the resume of overall trend (down trend) on the higher time frame and not marrying a bias. Selling opportunities are looking favourable upon a retest of the highlighted zone.

EURUSD

4 Hour - Shorts can be taken following from a pullback into the highlighted zone which is a nice area of confluence.

IYFEURNZD

Daily - Price is rejecting the level of 1.6975 - 1.6950 and is suggesting that we may not see that ‘deeper’ correction after all. I will be looking to sell this pair going into the week.

EURNZD

4 Hour - A potential double top has been formed at intra-day resistance, I am looking for the counter trend line to be broken with conviction to initiate shorts.

IYFEURAUD

Daily - We can see price stalling around this level of liquidity and there is every possibility that we continue falling from here. However if manage to break above this resistance I can see us creating a new lower high which is where we can look for selling opportunities.

EURAUD

4 Hour - If we do see price break above 1.6100 then I would expect some form of a correction into the area of 1.6150 which is where we need to be on high alert for selling opportunities as mentioned above.

IYFEURGBP

Daily - The level of 0.8975 is still acting as strong resistance for this pair and we can see price really decelerating around this area. If we see a solid Daily bearish close below the trend line this will be our first confirmation. Then, we remain patience and wait for price to interact with an area of value before selling. Is this set-up all too obvious for retail traders? Be wary that we may see a potential ‘stop hunt’ before rolling over?

EURGBP

4 Hour - Waiting for a retest (which is our confirmation) would be the safest way to approach this trade.

IYFUSDJPY

Daily - We have seen the Weekly candle close back above 108.00 and an inverse head & shoulders forming which in turn has changed my thoughts on UJ. This pair does like to magnetise towards key level to key level so 110.00 could be our next upside target? We are faced with some intra-day resistance which could be used as an entry upon a breakout retest and continuation. Ideally we want to see a Daily candle close above the highlighted zone.

USDJPY

4 Hour - As mentioned above I would recommend waiting on a breakout and retest to take this pair into the Golden Pocket and potentially 110.00.

IYFUSDCAD

Daily - Price has struggled to break above 1.3150 and now with the Weekly close below the key level of 1.3100 it does look probable that we could continue falling from here. However, with the possibility of a stronger USD this week it would be best to remain patience with this pair as we may see a push higher back into 1.3150 which could act as a nice area to sell from.

USDCAD

4 Hour - If we do see that initial push back into the highlighted zone this is where we may be presented with a nice selling opportunity.

IYF

USDCHF

Daily - Price is stalling in our favoured Golden Pocket region and at present has failed to break above the descending trend line and resistance. Shorts are still looking good from here but we need more confirmation.

USDCHF

8 Hour - A breakout below the counter trend line will confirm shorts. A breakout above the descending trend line and resistance will confirm longs. Simple.

IYFAUDUSD

Daily - Since rejecting 0.7050 selling opportunities are looking good for this pair providing we are presented with the confirmation. We do have a fairly strong level of intra-day support to break which if broken will take us into the Golden Pocket and down into 0.6875.

AUDUSD

4 Hour - I’ll be looking for a retest of the trend line confirming a new lower high. Risk entry’s can be taken from here, alternatively a break and retest of the intra-day support for the more conservative trader.

IYFNZDUSD

Daily - I would like to see some Kiwi strength but we could see a rejection from the highlighted resistance and a possible break of the ascending trend line for a new leg lower.

NZDUSD

4 Hour - A rejection of the resistance and golden pocket would confirm a new lower high for a short entry - do take into consideration we have the ascending trend line to break acting as dynamic support.