Welcome to Comm 305!
Commerce 341 Operations ManagementLearning Curves
Fall 2015Geoff PondLearning CurvesHow to plot themHow to call
themTheoretical CurvesClass ExperimentEmpirical CurvesLearning
Curve AlgebraLearning Curves in PracticeHomework
AgendaTypically plotted using cumulative averages
Example
Plotting Learning CurvesIntroduction and OverviewUnit
#Production Time (hr)Cumulative Average
(hr)1120120.02110115.0395108.347299.356091.465585.3105380.7205277.1305274.3100517211050.57012050.568.4Linear-Linear
GraphPlotting Learning CurvesIntroduction and OverviewLinear-Linear
GraphLog-Log GraphCurves are named for the efficiency improvement
at every DOUBLING of production volume.
ExampleUnit 1: 4,000 hoursUnit 2: 3,000 hours (25%
reduction)Unit 4:2,250 hours(25% reduction)Unit 8:1,687.5 hours(25%
reduction)
This is a 75% learning curve (at every doubling of production, a
25% reduction in effort required is realized).Naming Learning
CurvesIntroduction and OverviewLog-Log ScalesLearning Curves
Learning curves are typically plotted in log-log space.Stanford
CurveLearning Curves
Stanford Curve: CUMULATIVE AVERAGE time/unit is linear in
log-log spaceCrawford CurveLearning Curves
Crawford Curve: time/unit is linear in log-log spaceWhich of
these better reflects reality?Learning Curves
Stanford CurveCrawford CurveReal LifeLearning Curves
Task dependentUser dependentEnvironment dependent
meaning?
Labour Intensive Operations80% Learning Curve
Machine Intensive Operations95% Learning Curve
Specific curves by applicationLearning Curves
Cochran, E.B., Planning Production Costs: Using the Improvement
Curve, San Francisco: Chandler Publishing, 1968.Historical
Empirical CurvesLearning Curves
Cochran, E.B., Planning Production Costs: Using the Improvement
Curve, San Francisco: Chandler Publishing, 1968.Historical
Empirical CurvesLearning Curves
Cochran, E.B., Planning Production Costs: Using the Improvement
Curve, San Francisco: Chandler Publishing, 1968.Learning Curve
AlgebraLearning CurvesSince these are logarithmic curves, they can
be expressed using the power law:ExampleLearning CurvesCompletion
of a task on the first attempt required 1200 hours of total effort.
Management anticipates an improvement of 11% based on historical
performance for similar projects. Determine the projected effort
over the first 50 units and the subsequent 100 units. SOLUTION but
we dont know n yet!Example (continued)Learning CurvesCompletion of
a task on the first attempt required 1200 hours of total effort.
Management anticipates an improvement of 11% based on historical
performance for similar projects. Determine the projected effort
over the first 50 units and the subsequent 100 units.
SOLUTIONExample (continued)Learning CurvesCompletion of a task on
the first attempt required 1200 hours of total effort. Management
anticipates an improvement of 11% based on historical performance
for similar projects. Determine the projected effort over the first
50 units and the subsequent 100 units. SOLUTIONTake a few minutes
to try and solve for the second part of the problem on your own.In
ExcelLearning Curves
In ExcelIntroduction and Overview
1) Right-click on data-series2) Left-click on Add TrendlineIn
ExcelIntroduction and Overview
3) Select a Power trend4) Check this box to display the
trendlines equationIn ExcelIntroduction and OverviewThis is a 85%
learning curve.Estimating production costsManual labourEstimating
business costsSoftware proficiencyKnowledge of corporate
processesCapacity planningManufacturingHealth-services (surgical
team proficiency)
ImportanceLearning CurvesLearning - variabilityLearning
Curves
For this task, what accounts for variability early becomes
significantly less important as training progressesLearning one
dimension at a time!Learning Curves
For this task (a flight simulator), participant performance
improved as they focused on one dimension at a time (improvement in
position control declines in subsequent trials while improvements
in acceleration control increases over subsequent trials)Team
LearningLearning CurvesWhat makes one team learn a new process
faster than another?
managers must become leadersleaders must create a positive
learning environmentmust give up dictatorial authority (often
difficult for technical experts (surgeons, engineers))instead must
behave as team partners rather than managerspromote psychological
safetyleaders should be chosen based on leadership skills, NOT
technical authorityleaders must be active participants in training
& learning
Edmondson, A., Bohmer, R., and Pisano, G., Speeding up Team
Learning, Harvard Business Review, October 2001.Read the
supplemental chapter on Learning Curves posted to D2L. Let me know
if you have questions!!!Try the following problems from the end of
the supplemental chapter posted on D2L:
Problem 1Problem 9Problem 10Problem 19
Read Chapter 5 in preparation for next class.
Before next class.Introduction and Overview
