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Wedgewood Partners Fourth Quarter 2017 Client Letter The Great Bull Market of 2009-2018: The Greatest I am the Greatest of All Time…I’m fast…I can’t possibly be beat…I’m pretty…I shook up the World! Muhammad Ali Review and Outlook Our Composite (net-of-fees) i gained +20.4% during 2017. The benchmark Russell 1000 Growth Index gained a stunning +30.2%. The S&P 500 Index gained 21.8% during 2017. Top 2017 performance detractors include Schlumberger, Celgene, Core Labs, Kraft Heinz and T.J. Maxx. Top 2017 performance contributors include PayPal, Apple, Visa, Berkshire Hathaway and Priceline.

Wedgewood Partners Fourth Quarter 2017 Client Letter The ...€¦ · Back in 2016, we spent a goodly portion of our client letters putting this incredible bull market into historical

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Page 1: Wedgewood Partners Fourth Quarter 2017 Client Letter The ...€¦ · Back in 2016, we spent a goodly portion of our client letters putting this incredible bull market into historical

WedgewoodPartnersFourthQuarter2017ClientLetter

TheGreatBullMarketof2009-2018:TheGreatest

IamtheGreatestofAllTime…I’mfast…Ican’tpossiblybebeat…I’mpretty…IshookuptheWorld!

MuhammadAli

ReviewandOutlookOur Composite (net-of-fees)i gained +20.4% during 2017. The benchmark Russell 1000GrowthIndexgainedastunning+30.2%.TheS&P500Indexgained21.8%during2017.Top2017performancedetractorsincludeSchlumberger,Celgene,CoreLabs,KraftHeinzandT.J. Maxx. Top 2017 performance contributors include PayPal, Apple, Visa, BerkshireHathawayandPriceline.

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Our Composite (net-of-fees) gained +8.5% during the fourth quarter of 2017. Thebenchmark Russell 1000 Growth Index gained +7.9%. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.6%duringthequarter.

1

1Portfoliocontributioncalculatedgrossoffees.Theholdingsidentifieddonotrepresentallofthesecuritiespurchased, sold, or recommended. Returns are presented net of fees and include the reinvestment of allincome.“Net(Actual)”returnsarecalculatedusingactualmanagementfeesandarereducedbyallfeesandtransaction costs incurred. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Additional calculationinformationisavailableuponrequest.

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Top fourth quarter performance detractors include Celgene, Priceline, Schlumberger,Cognizant Technology and Kraft Heinz. Top fourth quarter performance contributorsincludeQualcomm,Fastenal,RossStores,TractorSupplyandPayPal.Duringthefourthquarter,weincreasedourpositionsinCelgeneandEdwardsLifesciences.WetrimmedPayPal.In an investing environmentwhere everymajor index (and asset class) is at an all-time,nearly9-yearhighs,we are still able – becauseof our focus – to construct aportfolio ofgrowthcompanieswithmuchbettergrowthandprofitabilityprofilesbutatquitefavorablevaluations. Specifically,ourportfolio’sfutureannualEPSgrowthrate(IBESconsensus)isprojectedtobeapproximately15%.(Ourinternalgrowthrateishigherstill.)Theforward12-monthP/Eis22X.Ourprospectivegrowthrateis+29%higherthanourbenchmarkand+51% higher than the S&P 500. Our forward 12-month P/E is -4% lower than ourbenchmarkandatparityversustheS&P500.

TheGreatestBack in 2016,we spent a goodly portion of our client letters putting this incredible bullmarket intohistoricalcontext.2017wasmoreofthesame,whether itwasthecontinuedlengthofthebullmarketorthenear-historicgains(settoeclipsetherecord+302%gainsofthe1990s).Inaddition,wehavechronicledhistoricallyhighvaluationsthatcontinuetogetpushedintoriskyterritory,aswellastheincrediblemoniesallocatedtopassiveinvestingfromactivemanagers,thehistoricallylowvolatility,etc.Aswenowlookbackupon2017,weadmitthatwearerunningoutofsuperlatives. Thisincrediblebullmarketisnowjusttwoshortmonthsshyofitsninthanniversary.

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Thefourthquartercontinuedwhatbeganduringthethirdquarter,inthatmorethanafewofournon-techportfolioholdingsfinallystartedto“catchabid.”Thehitparadeduringmuchofthisbullmarkethasbeendominatedbytechnologystocks–particularlythelargestcap-weighted technology stocks. Indeed, the five largest stocks in our benchmark (Apple,Alphabet,Microsoft,AmazonandFacebook)nowmakeupanastonishing24%oftheRussell1000GrowthIndex.Further, the benchmark’s tech stockweighting (using S&P GICS,which doesnot includeAmazon)isnearly+38%andnowabovewhereitpeakedbackinthoseheadytechstockdaysinMarchof2000.Eveninourfocusedportfolio,westruggletofindthatmuchcompellingopportunitywithoutsignificantlycompromisingfuturereturns.Technology’scurrentweightingcontrastswiththefinancialandenergysectors, the lattertwoofwhichcollectivelyrepresentlessthan5%oftheentireRussell1000GrowthIndex.Ourbottom-upinvestmentprocessmakesushardlya“bull”onanyindustry,butaprospective“equal-weight” inaroughly20-stockportfolio isabout5%,soasingleholdingcaneasilyskewourindustryweightings,giventhatthefinefolksatRussellseemtobeOKwithcarryingsub-1%weightingsinverylargesectorsoftheU.S.economy.Sufficeittosaythatwefindenoughcompellinggrowthintheunderrepresentedindustriestowarrantinclusionofafewholdingsinourportfolio.Peeringacrossthestylisticgrid,itisnosecretthattheRussell1000ValueIndexmustalsobeparticularlylop-sided–indeed,witha26%weightinginfinancialsand11%weightinginenergy,itisalsonotsurprisingthatGrowthhasdramaticallyoutperformedValuein2017,nottomentionmostofthedurationofthisbullmarket(moreonthislater).

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Aslong-term,multiyearinvestorsinhighlyprofitable,growing,large-capbusinesses,suchbusinesses accumulate significant amounts of retained earnings. As shareholders, theseretained earnings, that capital, is “ours.” As long-term shareholders, we typically don’tdemandthatsuchretainedcapitalbereturnedtoshareholdersintheformofstockbuybacksorviadividends(wedon’tcaretoownbondproxies).Ineffect,ourattitudeisthatwe,asshareholders (partners, really), are effectively providing capital to management to bereinvestedbackintoourcompanies.Thus,weheartilyencourageandexpectourcompaniestoreinvestlargeenoughamountsinretainedcapitaltocreateenoughvaluebygeneratingfurtherhigh returnson a growing capital base. This compounding effect is the financialmother’smilktothen,inturn,drivefuturedouble-digitearningsgrowth.Today,ourdouble-digitreturnhurdlerelativetothemarkethasrarelyseemedhigher,asweobserve marginally-profitable, large businesses able to borrow at interest rates thatarenegative.2We thinkourdemand fordouble-digit returns lookspositively quaint (punintended)inthisnarrowlight.Butifdebtandequityaresubstitutes,itbegstowonderwhataguaranteedlossofprinciplelookslikeintheequityrealm.Weimaginetheequityanaloglookssomethinglikealargecompanythatregularlylosesmoney,butregularlyissuesstock.Wehaveseenseverallargetechnologycompaniesthatissue5to10%oftheirstockeveryyear,foryearsonend.Theinfluxofcapitaltofundthosenumerous,andregularofferingshas been truly remarkable, but also completely undemanding from a profitabilityperspective.Asacompetingsourceoffinance,wethinkindexationhasrisentoprominenceon a kernel of truth, and amountain of indiscriminate return requirements, as over $10trillionincapitalhasbeeninjectedintopublicmarketsoverthepastdecade,courtesyofthethreelargestcentralbanksontheplanet.Alas,wecannearlyalwayscomplainaboutmonetarystimulus, ifonlybecause ithasruncompletely counter to our philosophy as investors. On a brighter note, we expectrecentfiscalstimulustobenefitourgreatbusinessesthatdogeneratepre-taxprofits,intheformoflowercorporatetaxrates.Afterall,fewifanygrowthcompaniescaninvest100%(ormore)oftheirexcesscapital,yearinandyearout,andgetareturnoneverysingledollar(or even a majority of those dollars) – we think even the shrewdest, most successfulbusinesses andmanagement teams are right 60-70%of the time. So,we aremore thanforgivingwhenourcompaniesgeneratecopiousamountsofpre-taxprofitability.Assuch,manyofourinternally-fundedbusinesses–particularlythosefocusedontheU.S.market–should reapawindfallof cost-less (at themargin) capital, andput themonamoreevenplayingfieldrelativetothosebusinessesthatregularlyaccessnegativecostcapital.

2https://www.veolia.com/sites/g/files/dvc181/f/assets/documents/2017/11/CP_Callisto_161117_EN.pdf

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Howgoodisthestockmarketrightnow??Freezetime.Thisisasgoodasitgetsforthestockmarket!

• ThegainfromtheMarchlowsof2009is+310%whichequalstheincrediblebullmarketgainofthe1990’s–butsomanymorestocksandsectorshavesoaredrelativetothetech/telecom1990’sbullmarket.

• Up20outpast21quarters.

• Uppast14monthsinarow.

• 2017–the8thyear,mindyou,ofthisGreatBullMarket–wasup+20%andupEVERY

monthduringtheyear!

• Thecurrentmomentumisliterallyoffthecharts.TheDowJonesIndustrialAverage’sRelativeStrengthIndexisat90!That’sthehighestsince1959!TheS&P500Index’sRSIisalmost97!That’sthehighestsince1929!!!

This moment in time is Wayne Gretsky scoring 92 goals in a single season. This is JoeDiMaggiohittingsafelyin72outof73games;WiltChamberlainscoring100pointsinasinglegamefortheoldPhiladelphiaWarriors.ThisisTedWilliamsbatting.406.ThisisSecretariatattheBelmont.Goodgrief,thisisSpinalTapgoingto11!

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Incredibly, theGreatBullMarketof2009-2017momentumactually increasedduring thefourthquarter.Downsidevolatilityinthestockmarketsimplyappearstobeathingofthepast(thoughwearedubious.)2017setnumerousrecordsforhistoricallylowvolatilityinboththestockandbondmarkets.Thefourthquarterrepresentedthe20thpositivequarteroverthepast21.The last negative quarter was two years agowhen the stockmarket “suffered” a -6.6%“collapse”duringthethirdquarterof2015.Infact,ifthecurrentbulladvanceswithoutatleasta-5%correctionbythethirdweekinJanuary,itwillbethelongestsuchstreaksince1928.Further,thestockmarkethasnotsufferedevena-3%drawdowninover13months,byfarthelongestinhistory.In2017alonethestockmarketwasupeverymonth(acalendaryearrecord)andhasnowbeenup14monthsinarow(arecord).95%ofthetradingdaysduring2017hadanintradayswingoflessthan1%–anotherhistoricrecord.TheDowJonesIndustrialAverageset71new highs in 2017 – themost since 1910. The secondmost new-highs figure (65)wasrecordedback in1925. The lastnotabledouble-digit “correction”wassixyearsago,waybackin2011.Thestockmarkethasrecordedpositivegains9consecutiveyearsandin14outofthepast15years.Evenvolatilityhighsduring2017werethelowestonrecord.WeneedtorepeatwhatwewroteinourlastLetter;volatilityisadearfriendoftheactive,patient,value-sensitiveinvestor.Wemissitterribly.

Ifhistoryhastaughtusanything,itisthatatmarketextremesthemostlogical(butoftenthemostdifficult)decisionistodotheexactoppositeofthemajorityofinvestors.Ourdefense-first,conservativeinvestmentstrategyisnotidealatall,giventheeuphoricenvironmentofthepast3-4years.Again,webelievethatthenextfewyearswilllikelylookverydifferent

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thanthepastfew.Intimespast,whenextremelyhighvaluationsweremetwithextremesinlowvolatility,theensuinginvestingenvironmenttypicallyrewardeddefense-firststrategiesonceagain.

Source:EuroPacificCapital

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Source:TheLeutholdGroup

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Activemanagershavehadtheirhandsfullduringmostofthisbullmarket.Ourclients(aswellasallofusatWedgewood)havefeltthefullstingofunderperformanceoverthepastfew years. We have never had a calendar year ofmistake-free investing. We deploy adefense-firstphilosophytoavoidwhatwebelievetobetheultimatemistakewecouldmake,andthatisapermanentlossofcapitalonindividualportfolioholdings.

Source:GoldmanSachs

Such conservatism has served us well over full market cycles and since our strategy’sfoundingbackin1992.Sincethen,wehavecometobelievethatwehaveseen“everything”thatinvestinginthestockmarketcanthrowataninvestor–layinvestororprofessional.Well, the last few years have been certainly new territory for us. In the never-endingperformancerace,it’salwaysamarathon,butsometimesit’sasprint,andthedefinitionofa“mistake”seemedtotakeonnewmeaningoverthepastfewyears.

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Heretofore,“mistakes”attheindividualstocklevelwerethoseofpermanentlossofcapital.Giventhenonstopadvancementofthestockmarketsincetheendof2012(up20quartersofthepast21),“mistakes”arenowdefinedasdegreesofhowmuchastocklagsitsrespectivestylebenchmark.Even“winners”havebeenredefinedasmistakes.Forexample,considerthe5-yeargaininCognizantTechnology–aseeminglyterrificgainof+14.1%.However,comparedtothestaggering5-yearannualgaininthebenchmark(Russell1000GrowthIndex)of+17.1%,ourinvestmentinCognizantis,well,amistake.Again,intermsof“degreesofmistakes,”the5-yearannualgaininBerkshireHathaway–withthesame+17.1%as the benchmark – has been, to a degree, a mistake too, since the stock has notoutperformed. The performance derby has been a demandingmistress over the recentcycle.Butaswithallcycles,thepastisnotprologue.Vanguardauthoredaninterestingstudyin2015ofmutual fundsthatoutperformedtheirrespectivebenchmarksovera15-yearperiod.Theydeemedsuchfunds“successful”intheirstudy.Theupshotoftheirstudyisthatthevastmajorityoftheverybestactiveinvestmentmanagerssufferthroughmeaningfulperiods,evenconsecutiveyears,ofunderperformance.Theperformancederbycanbeutterlyhumbling.Wecontinuetolearnfromourmistakes–andoursuccesses.Ourlearningprocessmustnotstop.WeatWedgewoodremainsteadfastinadheringtoourtime-testedinvestmentphilosophyandinvestmentstrategy.

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Anaside:OurCompositeperformance(net)forthe15-yearperiodendingDecember31,2014,wasagainof+6.37%perannum(gross:+7.26%),versusthebenchmarkperannumgainof2.21%.The15-yearperiodfromtheendof1999throughtheendof2014isaratherinteresting,ifnotinstructive,periodinwhichtoanalyzetheperformanceofactivemanagers,asittakesintoaccounttwooftheworstbearmarketsinstockmarkethistory.

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CompanyCommentariesApple“YouhavetogobacktoRockefellerandStandardOiltofindacompanysodominantinabusinesssolarge,”saysDavidRolfe,chiefinvestmentofficeratWedgewoodPartners,whichmanages$5billion.“Othercompaniessettle

forunitsalesorrevenues,butinmanyquarters,Applecollectsmorethan80%ofgrossprofitacrossthesmartphoneindustry.”

Barron’s

December23,2017

Appleenjoyedastellar2017onboththeproductfrontandonthefinancialfront.Revenuegrowthacceleratedallfourquartersin2017.TheCompany’sfiscalyear-end(September)endedonahighnoteofrecordrevenueacrossallproductcategories,plusnotableproductmomentumandmarketsharegainsinmostproductsandinmostgeographiesaroundtheglobe.Chinawasnotable,withmarketsharegainsforiPhone,iPadandtheMac.Specifically,ApplepostedrecordrevenueinChinaforitsservicesbusinessandtheMac.TheCompany’sfiscal fourth quarter posted record year-over-year September revenue of $52.6 billion(+12%)andrecordearningspershareof$2.07(+24%).GiventhesizeoftheCompany’siPhonefranchise,theresultsinanygivenquarterorcalendaryeararedominatedbythefortunes(orlackthereof)oftheiPhone.TheiPhonereallyisthestraw that stirs theAppledrink. The iPhonecelebrated its10-yearanniversary in2017.SincethelaunchofthefirstiPhone,Applehassold1,250,432,000iPhones.Thesesaleshavegeneratednearly$800billion.Itisestimatedthat800millionoftheseiPhonesremainactive.Overthepast10years,theaveragesellingpriceoftheiPhonehas,tothesurpriseofmany,beenremarkablysteadyforatechnologyhardwareproduct.Overtheyears,thesellingpricehasaveragedabout$638.Nodoubtcarrier-subsidizedcostovermanyofthepast10yearshasbeenpartandparcelofASPstability. Inrecentyears, theacceptanceofsmartphoneusersthattheirverypersonalizedphoneshavebecomeindispensableintheirdailylivessomuchsothatmillionsofusersnowallocateasmuchmonthlybudgetfortheirsmartphonesastheydoforhousing/rental,transportation,cableandelectricbills.Dareweincludefoodtoo?Remarkably,theutilityandfunctionalityofmodernsmartphones,withtheirmyriadofApps and capabilities (communication, social networking, entertainment, financialmanagement,shopping,healthtracking)arenothingshortofdailyhumansubsistence.

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ThesurpriseoverthenextcoupleofyearsmightbeaspikeiniPhoneASPs.Applecouldwellsell250millioniPhoneseachyearoverthenextthreeyears. Astheuserbase(plusnewusers)upgradestotheiPhone8andtheiPhoneX,ASPscouldeasilyexceed$700–andevenapproach$750.TheCompanynowofferssixiPhoneconfigurationsbetween$650and$850–iPhone7and8.TheiPhoneX(currently$1,000to$1,150)reallygetsintoASPsnextyear.Infiscal2017theCompanysoldnearly217millioniPhones,againofjust+2%over2016–andlessthanthe231millioniPhonessoldin2015.Asseenbelow,theapexofiPhonesaleswasrecordedbackinlate2015duringtheincrediblesuccessofthenew,largeriPhone6era.Pent-updemandforthelargeriPhone6(particularlyinChina)droveiPhoneunitgrowthof+22%andrevenuegrowthof+36%infiscal2015.Sincethetoughcomparisonfrom2015,plustherealitiesofreplacementdemandfornewiPhonesdrivingunitsales,withnewiPhoneusergrowthlosingitsformingtailwind,unitgrowthwaswelcomedbackin2017.ChinawaskeytotherenewalofconsistentiPhonegrowthduring2017.KantarreportsthatiPhonemarket share fell from25.3% inNovemberof2015 to19.9%. ByMarchof2017iPhonemarketshare inChinahad tumbled to just12.4%. Thatwouldmark thenadirofiPhonemarketshare.Fastforwardtotoday,andiPhonemarketsharehassteadilyimprovedbacktoapproximately20%.

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ThatfirstiPhonewastrulyrevolutionary.HereiswhatwewroteontheiPhonelaunchbackinAprilof2007:

ThehypeandhyperboleovertheiPhonehasbeensuchthataskepticmightsuspectthatexpectationsaresohighonthisso-called“revolutionary”devicethatitisdoomedtodisappointallbutthemostdie-hardApplefans.Perhaps.Butwedon’tthinkso.Infact,despitetheearlyglowingreviewsthusfar,andthegee-whizads(seeforyourself:

http://www.apple.com/iphone/usingiphone/guidedtour.htmlandherehttp://www.apple.com/iphone/ads/ad1/),webelievetheiPhonewillbeinfactaquantum

leapintheever-evolvingdescriptionandmaturationofthe“smartphone”market.

TheiPhoneraisesthebaracrossallapplications.Ittrulyisarevolutionarycellphone;Apple’sbestiPodto-dateandthefirsttrulyusefulwebbrowserdevice.Howdidthey

accomplishsomuchinasingledevice?Simpleanswer;buthardforcompetitorstocopy:cutting-edgesoftware,deliveredonverypowerfulhardware(threemicroprocessors

withintheiPhone).AttheiPhones’corerunsafullversionofMacOS–withfirst-in-classintegrationofiPodsoftwareandSafari(webbrowser)software.Elementsofthe

operatingsoftwareintheBlackBerryPearl,LGPrada,MotorolaQ9,NokiaN95,SonyEricssonW810iandTreo750arecertainlyrobust,butthemeanstobothnext-generationapplicationintegrationanduser-experiencesuperiorityresidesinbest-in-classoperatingsystemswhichistheMacOS.WewouldnotdiscountwhatJobssaid,theiPhonecould

wellbeyearsaheadofitsrespectivecompetitors.

Tomarkthe10-yearanniversary,Applepulledoutalltheskunk-worksstopsindesigningthe iPhone X. Heretofore, every new iteration of the iPhonewas certainly evolutionary,ratherthanrevolutionary.EverynewgenerationoftheiPhoneboastedthelatestcutting-edgehardwareandsoftwaremarquefeaturesfromApple.“S”generationiPhoneshaven’tgarneredtheenthusiasmfromtheuserbase,newcustomersorthepresstoo,buttheynodoubtpushedenoughelementsoftheCompany’stechnologicalprowess.NewgenerationsofiPhonesthatpromisednewdesignaestheticsandnewformsizeshavebeenseminalnewproductannouncements.Theall-glassiPhone4andthelargeriPhone6cometomindonthisscore.TheintroductionoftheAppStoreinthesummerof2008withaninitial500AppsfundamentallyturnedtheiPhoneintowhatwouldbecomeauniquelypersonalcomputingdevice.TheAppStoreofferingscontinuetofundamentallychangethewaywecommunicateviasocialmedia,changeourshoppinghabits,howwebank–andmuchmore.

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TheiPhoneXisnot,inourview,atrulyrevolutionaryproductinthesamesenseasthefirstiPhone,butwedothinkofitasmuchmorethananevolutionaryimprovement.ComparetheiPhone 8 to the iPhone 7 and the evolutionary cadence is clear. The iPhone X is a newdirection,aninflectionpoint,asitwere,towardadifferentiPhonefuture.ThetwodesignchangesoftheiPhoneXthatstandoutversustheiPhone8areFaceIDandtheeliminationofthefront-facinghomebutton.Removalofthehomebuttonnotonlyfreesupmorespace,butisanew,moreintuitivegatewayintotheiPhone’ssoftwareviaaswipe.FaceIDisApple’sentryintobiometricauthentication.FromourexperienceusingFaceID,wehappilyreportthatitworkswell–andit’sveryfast.ApplereportsthatthetypicaliPhoneisunlocked80timesperday.JustintermsofunlockinganiPhone,comparedtotheearlyyearsof4and6–digit PIN numbers, to Touch ID and now to Face ID, the daily time savings is apparentimmediatelytonewiPhoneXusers.Again, the iPhone Xmay not be revolutionary, but it does represent a paradigm shift insoftware interaction and presents the pathway for the development by both Apple andoutsidedevelopersinthenew,newworldofaugmentedreality.Relatedly,lastSeptemberAppleannouncedtheirlatestprocessor,theneuralengineA11Bionicchip.This4.3billiontransistor, 6-core chip is notablenot only for its power (exceeding thepowerof currentlaptopPCs),butalsotheinclusionoftheCompany’sfirst-designedGPUsolution.Followingthisprocessorroadmap,2018couldbringtheannouncementofasystemonachip(SOC)thatoffershardwareaccelerationforartificialintelligence(AI)processing.Rounding out the other products and services thatmakeup theCompany’s best-in-classecosystem,wefindmoregoodnewstoreport.TheiPadwasawakenedfromitsmultiyearslumberin2017.Amixofthelarger,10.5-inchiPadPro,plusmoreattractivepricepointsforthe9.7-inchiPadreignitedgrowth.Inall,iPadsaleswereup+15%infiscal2017andtheiPadglobalmarketsharereboundedto4-yearhighs.NPDreportsthatiPadmarketshareinthe U.S. jumped to 54% from 47% over fiscal 2017. Revenues in the all-important U.S.educationmarketgained+32%duringthefourthquarter.Unitsaleswereup+25%inChinaand+39%inIndia.

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2017was a significant year for AppleWatch. The AppleWatchwas first introduced inSeptemberof2014andbecameavailableforsaleinAprilof2015.Today,andinveryshortorder, Apple can boast that they have become the world’s largest watchmaker. Rolex,foundedafewyearsagoin1905,cededits#1rankingtoApplelastquarter.ApplereportsthattheirWearables(Watch,AirPodsandBeatsheadphones)businessinunitswasup+75%year-over-yearinthefourthquarteroffiscal2017–andwasnowthesizeofaFortune400business. AppleWatchendedthefiscalyearhavinggrownat+50%forthreeconsecutivequarters. As2018rolls in,AppleWatch’srevenuerun-rate looks tobeapproaching$5.5billion – driven by the launch of the LTE cellular-enabled Series 3 Watch, as well asrepositioningtheWatchasabest-in-classcardiovascularwearable.Alltold,theCompanysold18millionwatchesin2017–andhassold33millionsinceitsinitiallaunch.TheWatchstorycouldwellbeintheveryearlyinningsofgrowth,astheadoptionoftheWatchwithintheiPhoneuserbaseisjust5%.Even theMachad itsbest-ever revenueyear in2017, reaching$25.8billion. During theSeptemberquarter,Macrevenuesgrew+25%,andgrew+10%forfiscal2017.TheseresultssparkleevenmoreagainstthebackdropofapunkindustryenvironmentthatIDCreportsshrankby -1%onaglobalbasis. Apple’s long-heldposition in thepremiumPCsegmentcontinuestoservethemwell.NotethestabilityandtheASPofMacsinthefirstgraphic.TherecentlyintroducediMacProisawonderofdesktophorsepower–awellreceivedadditiontotheMaclineupafterthelacklusterlaunchofthelatestMacBookProinlate2016.Apple’sServicesbusinessmayhavebeenthebrightspotduring2017.Longinthemaking,ServicesistheglueofApple’sincredibleecosystem.KeyelementsoftheServicesbusiness–AppStore,iCloud,AppleCare,ApplePay,AppleMusic,plusaddinAppleMapsandSiri–aretheconnectivetissuebetweentheCompany’sconnectedhardwaretoenhancethecustomerexperience.Today,Apple’secosystemhasgrowntoover900millioncustomersandover800millionactivedevicesandover300milliondevicessoldperyear.Thisecosystemisnodoubtgiant,aswellasglobalinsize,scale,andscope.WhileAppleoutsourcesthemanufacturingofitshardwareproducts,theCompanyhaslongownedastaggeringamountofequipmentlocatedintheirmanufacturingpartners’plants-$54billionofmachinery,equipmentandinternal-usesoftwareonApple’sbalancesheetcertainlyatteststotheenormityofthescaleandfinancialresourcesittakestomanufactureandsell+300milliongadgetsperyear.Onthisscore,Appleisunmatched.

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Forexample,Appleisthebest-sellingwesternbrandinChina.GreaterChina(including mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) revenueseclipsed$10billionin2011andsoaredto$59billionin2015.Aftertwoyearsofdecline,theCompany’srecentGreaterChinarevenueaccelerationmaychallengethe2015high-watermarkin2018. TheCompany’snonstopeffortstoimprovetheirecosystemdelivers,prospectively,stickiercustomers, halo effects, and annuity-like revenues. Like most technology companyecosystemefforts (thinkSoftwareasaServiceand thesort), theCompany’sServices isabastionofstellarrevenuegrowth,butunlikemost,aprofitmachine.

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Servicesrevenuereachedanall-timequarterlyrecordof$8.5billionlastquarter(+34%)–reaching a $30 billion annual run-rate. The business is now the size of a Fortune 100business.AcrossalloftheCompany’sServicesofferings,thenumberofpaidsubscriptionshasreached210million.PaidsubscriptionsforAppleMusichavereached30millioninjust27months–ittookSpotify74monthstoreachthatmark.Overthecourseof2017,ApplePayusershavedoubledandannualtransactionswentup+330%.TheAppStoresetanewrecord in 2017 and enters 2018 as the Company’s fastest-growing and highest-marginbusiness.TheCompany’sAppStoregrossmarginisashighas90%onNetAppspurchases.

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In fact,asof thiswriting, theCompany just reported that theAppStore’sNewYear’sDaypurchases of $300 million set a new record. In addition, during the week starting onChristmasEve,arecordnumberofcustomersbothpurchasedanddownloadedappsfromtheAppStore,tothetuneof$890millionduringthosesevendays.Lastly,onapppurchasesduring2017, theCompany reports that theypaidout$26.5billion to iOSdevelopers– a+30%increase.

Latein2017broughtthesignificantnewsthatthecashproblemofthe1stNationalBankofCupertinowasfixedwhenPresidentTrumpsignedthe"TaxCutsandJobsAct"intolawonDecember 22. Under the current U.S. tax system, Apple owes 35% tax to the federalgovernment on all revenue earned - both in theU.S. and abroad. The new law enacts adeemedrepatriationofoverseasprofitsatarateofjust15.5%forcashandequivalentsand8%forreinvestedearnings.GoldmanSachsestimatesthatU.S.companieshold$3.1trillionofoverseasprofits.AsofSeptember30,Applealoneholds$252billionintax-deferredforeignearnings,94%ofits total cash and marketable securities. This is most welcome news for shareholders.Heretofore, Apple has needed to borrow heavily to fund capex, buy back stock and paydividends.TheirU.S.-onlyoperatingcashgenerationwasn’tfootingthebill.

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Now, before you think Apple wants for cash, a little perspective is in order. We havechronicledApple’sprodigiouscashgenerationforoveradecadenow,solet’sgetcaughtup:Overthepasttenyears,Applehasgenerated$450billioninoperatingcashflowand$373billion infreecashflow. Overjustthepastfiveyears,theyhavegenerated$324billion inoperatingcashflowand$267billioninfreecashflow.Infiscal2017alone,Applegeneratednearly$64billionofoperatingcashflow,aboutasmuchasthatofAlphabet,AmazonandFacebookcombined.Onafreecashflowbasis,whichisameasure of howmuch cash is generated after taking into account such items as capitalexpendituresandotherexpensesassociatedwithrunningtheCompany,Apple's$51billionoffreecashflowwas$2billiongreaterthanfreecashproducedbyAlphabet,AmazonandFacebookcombined.In2013and2014,Applebegantakingonbothlong-termandshort-termdebttooffsettheirinternationalearnings.TodaytheCompanyhas$113billionindebt,nettingouttheircashandliquiditytoapproximately$150billion.Afterrepatriation,Applewillbesittingonacool+$213billioninU.S.cash.Netofdebt,theCompanywillhaveabout$100billion.

TheCompanybeganreturningcapitaltoshareholdersbackin2012,firstasadividend.Sharebuybacksstartedin2013.Todate,theCompanyhasreturned$234billionoftheircurrent$300billioncapitalreturnprogram.WhilethesharesarestillreasonablyvaluedwewouldprefertheCompanytocontinuetobuybackstock.TheCompanyhasbeenbuyingbackstockto the tuneof$6billion to$10billionperquarter (dividendsarealmost$3.5billionperquarter).Perhapsa$50billionto$75billionDutchAuctionstockbuybackisinorder.Insum,wehopetoconveythattheStateofAppleisquitehealthy–andgrowing.RecallthattheCompany’srecent financialpeakwas fiscal2015whentheCompanygenerated$81.3

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billioninoperatingcashflow.Weexpectthatleveltobebreachedinthenextcoupleofyears.Capital spending has clocked in around $13 billion over the past few years. Even if theCompanyspends$45billionincapexoverthenextthreeyears,theCompanywillgeneratemanybillionsmorethantheyneedtokeepthelightson.iCashindeed!CelgeneCelgenewasatopdetractortoperformanceduetoacouplenegativenewseventsreleasedduringthequarter. ThecompanyannouncedtheywoulddiscontinueaphaseIII trial fortheir drug GED-0301 in Crohn's disease (CD) and an extension trial, following arecommendationoftheDataMonitoringCommittee.TheyalsodecidedthatanotherphaseIIItrialforCrohn'sdiseasewouldnotbeinitiated.WhileaphaseIItrialwithGED-0301inulcerative colitis is still ongoing, the Company is currently awaiting review of data todeterminetheirnextstepsforthisindication.IntheabsenceofanyinformationonwhetherthetrialfailurewasduetosomethingspecifictoCDorthedrugitself,itiscurrentlyassumedto be a high-risk program for that indication. This studywas deemed a high risk/low-probabilitystudy,especiallywhencomparedtootherIBDdrugs.However,itssuccesscouldhavebeenablockbusterInflammation&Immunology(I&I)assetforthecompany,makingitsfailureadisappointingloss.Inaddition to these trial failures,during the thirdquarterearnings release,managementbroughtdown2020guidance,partiallyduetothediscontinuationofGED-0301programinCD.Whilesaleswereonlymodestintheir2020model,managementdidforecastmultibilliondollarpeaksalespotentialforthedrug.Thelargestimpactto2020guidance,however,wasweak performance of their existing drug Otezla, which experienced headwinds due toslowinggrowthandincreasedcompetitioninthepsoriaticarthritisandpsoriasismarkets.TheupdatedguidancetakesintoaccountGED-0301,themarketdynamicsimpactingOtezla,aswellas reassesses theopportunitiesandrisksassociatedwith theremainingphase IIIstudiesexpectedtoreadoutbytheendof2018.Webelievemanagementtookaconservativestancewith theirupdateandyet theresultingguidemaintainsmore than+14%revenuegrowthandnearly+20%earningsgrowthonacompoundedannualbasisthrough2020.WerealizetherewillbephaseIIIfailures;andwitheachfailurecomesthepotentialformoreriskandlessgrowth.WereiteratethattheCompanyhasaverybroadpipeline,with12phaseIIIstudiessettoreadoutbetweennowandtheendofthisyear,makingsetbackslikethesemoremanageableinthelongerterm.CelgenehassubstantiallymorephaseIIIassetsthananyotherbiotech company. Several of thesepipeline assets arenot incorporated in thecurrent2020guidance,astheyreadoutatadatewhenanysalespotentialwillcontributeatfuturedates.Withnearly+20%compoundedannualearningsgrowththrough2020andfreecash flowgenerationof$100billionover thenext tenyears,Celgenecontinuestoofferacompellinggrowthopportunity.

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KraftHeinzKraft Heinz underperformed during the past quarter and throughout the year as toughconditionsinthetraditionalbrandedfoodindustry–primarilynegativevolumegrowth,aswellaspricingpressurefromretailcustomersintentongivingawaytheirprofitstochasemarketshare–weighedonthecompany’sresults.Furthermore,investorshavebeenitchingfortheCompanytoexecuteanothermajoracquisition,andthisfailedtomaterializein2017,althoughtheCompanydidmakeanultimatelyabandonedapproachforUnileverearlyintheyear. Wehavebeenimpressed,duringourownershipofKraftHeinz,withmanagement’sabilitytocutcostsandtoimprovemarginsatthebusinessesithasintegrated,but,withover$1.5billionofcostsavingsalreadybehindus,andwithvolumegrowthnowheretobeseen,webelieveweneedtoseeamajoracquisitiontodrivethestockmeaningfullyhigher.Webelievethecompanyremainsactiveinitspursuitofacquisitions,andthiswouldseemtobe an ideal environment for buying, between still-low interest rates, relatively lowervaluations across the Consumer Staples sector, and nearly limitless available liquiditybetween Kraft Heinz and its co-sponsors, 3G and Berkshire Hathaway. We believeacquisitionintegrationandoperationalandfinancialimprovementarecorestrengthsoftheorganization,andwewouldbepositivelybiasedtowardanyacquisition.Withallofthisinmind,wedidtrimourpositioninthestockthroughouttheyear,particularlyaswesawthestockbouncingoffofall-timehighswhilethefundamentalperformanceofthecompany,intermsof volume/revenue/profit growth,was struggling. In themost recent quarter,wewererelievedtoseeunderlyingorganicperformanceimprovesomewhat,butwecontinuetobelievethegrowthwerequirewillonlycomefromacontinuingacquisitionstrategy,andwearemonitoringthissituationclosely.PricelinePriceline’s sharesunderperformed thebenchmarkafter reporting+18%growth in travelbookings,+19%roomnightgrowthand+18%growthinadjustedEBITDA.Despitethosestrongresults,wethinkmostoftheweaknessisattributedtotheCompany’sguidanceofahigh-single-digitgrowthrateinbookings.Further,growthamongPriceline’slargestpeersintheonlinetravelagencyindustryhasslowedoverthepastfewquarters,leadingmanytothink the industry is slowing. Thoughwe trimmed our position earlier in the year, wecontinue to think the OTA industry remains underpenetrated, particularly internationalmarkets,wherelodgingsupplyismorefragmented.WealsothinksomeoftheCompany’speers,particularlyin“meta-search,”havefailedtoinnovateandhaveresortedtocompetingdirectlywiththeirOTAcustomers-includingPriceline’sproperties–anditrepresentsanunsustainablestrategy.Assuch,Pricelineisintheprocessofshiftingadvertisingspend–acriticalcomponentofdemandgeneration–awayfrommetasearchprovidersandtowardsalternativemarketingchannels,inordertodrivebetterprofitabilityfrombookingsgrowth.Whilethismightbehavinganear-termeffectonPriceline’sbookinggrowth,wealsothinktheCompany’syear-agocomparableofover+30%representsatemporary“optical”hurdle.However,wecontinuetoseePricelineascapableofreacceleratingtoadouble-digitgrowthrateinanindustrythat,overall,istakingshareoftravelspending.

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Schlumberger/CoreLabsOurtwooilservicestocksdetractedfromperformancefortheyearandweremixedduringthemostrecentquarter–arguablyourbiggestsurpriseanddisappointmentintheportfoliolastyear.WhenwelastwroteonourenergynamesinthesecondquarterLetter,wenotedthe low correlations between our energy service names and the underlying commodityperformance.Asareminder,wefoundthatlessthanathirdofSchlumberger’slonger-termstockperformance variation canbe explainedby theperformance of oil. These findingsplayedoutfurtherduringtheremainderoftheyear,unfortunatelynotinourfavor–intheextreme.WesawoilpricesreboundinthesecondhalfoftheyearasbothBrentCrudeandWTIpricesreturned+30%,whileourenergynamesreturneddismallow-to-mid-single-digitreturnrates.Fortheyearwesawthisperformancedivergenceevenmoreexaggerated,asoilfinishedtheyearinthegreen,withWTIreturningapproximately+12%whileSchlumbergerwasdownnearly-20%andCoreLabs-9%.Ascanbeseeninthegraphicbelow,divergenceswerequiteextremesincetheFallof2016.

Whilewegoto lengthstoexplainthatbothSchlumbergerandCoreLabscreatevalue farbeyond that of owning the underlying commodity,we alsomust askwhy they have notbenefitedfromtheapparentreboundoftheenergymarketfollowingoneoftheworstoilmarket crashes in recent history. The answer likely lies in the uncertainty around theproductionestimatesforunconventionalshalenumbers.

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Take,forexample,thedifferenceinconventionalversusunconventionaloilproduction.Aconventionaloilwelltypicallyoperatesonextremelylongcycles.Theamountofcrudeoilproducedusuallydeclines just2-5%peryear,andawellcankeeppumpingfor20years,withsomewellspumpingfarbeyondthat. So, theinvestmentofbillionsofdollars intoaconventional oil field to produce for several years, if not several decades, canwithstandvolatileoilpricesaslongasthepriceofoilexceedsthevariablecosttoextracttheoilyearafteryear.Ittypicallydoesnotpaytostopproductionofaconventionaloilfield.Unlikeconventionalprojects,unconventionalshalewellshavearathershortlife,andmostofashalewell’sproductioncomesduringitsfirstyearaftercompletion.TaketheBakkenfieldsforexample.AwellintheBakkenwillexperienceaproductiondeclineof-72%afterthefirstyear.Morethanhalfofthereservesofthatwellwillbedepletedbythebeginningofyearthreeandannualproductionwillfalldramatically.Togenerateconstantorincreasingrevenue,producersneedtoconstantlydrillnewwells.Inaddition,workonanewshalewellcanbepostponedafterthedrillingphase,andbeforethefracturingoftheshalestructure,soproductioncanbetakenonandoffratherquicklyinresponsetopriceswingsinoil.As oil prices rose into the $100 range following the Great Recession, discovery anddevelopmentofshalefieldsandproductionratesgrewrapidly.Uponthesubsequentcrashinoilprices,shaleproductionnearlystalledwhenpricesfelltothelow$30s(andforashortperiod,below).Asoilpriceshaveonceagainbeguntorisetoward$60perbarrel,we’veseencapital spending rebound sharply in North American production. And yet international(unconventional) capital spending commitments remain hesitant, with some estimatesindicatingonlymodestgrowthfortheyearahead,althoughthiswouldbethefirstyear-over-yearincreaseincapexspendinginfouryears.ItisthislimitedinvestmentininternationalE&Pspendingthathaslikelycontributedtothesluggishturnaroundofouroilservicecompaniesrelativetothecommodity.International,conventionalfieldproductionhousesthehigher-margin,biggerpay-offprojects.Anystallincommittingcapitaltothisgroupwillflowthroughtothecompaniesthatservicethatwork.Schlumbergergenerateslessthanonequarterofthecompany’stotalrevenuefromtheNorthAmericanregion.Themajorityofrevenueisgeneratedinservicingtheinternationalplays.So, what gives us confidence that capital commitment toward international fields willincreasebeyondthemodestratesprojectedfor2018?Itisthebroadbeliefthat2018asawholeshouldoperateasacloselybalancedmarketandthatsupplyanddemandwillcomeintobalanceatsomepointintheyear–thisisasaresultofOPECandnon-OPECmembers’continuedcompliancewithanagreementreachedoverayearago,whichtookmorethan1millionbarrelsperday(bpd)outofproduction.Inaddition,globaldemandgrowthremainsabove1millionbpd.Thisisoffset,however,bytheU.S.oilproductionincreaseof800,000bpdprojected for20183. AndwhileNAMproductiongrowth isrobust, theEIAcurrentlyforecastsamoderationofU.S.productiongrowthtoamorereasonable200,000bpdbytheendofthedecade.43https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/us_oil.php4Schlumbergermanagementpresentation,Cowen&Company12/4/2017

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Of importantnote is the fact thatU.S. oil production contributes a small fractionof totalworldwideproduction.Globalexplorationexpenditureshavedecreasedyear-over-yearforthreeconsecutiveyears,fallingbyover-60%from2014-2017,withonlymodestincreasesestimatedfor2018.Ifthingsstayatstatusquo–whereglobaldemandgrowthcontinuesatitssteadypace,theOPECproduction-cutagreementremainsinplace,andinvestmentlevelsintheproductionbaseoutsideNAMlandremainatlowlevels–wecouldseeamedium-termglobal supply challenge. We believe the need for higher investment in internationalproductionisimminent.CharlesSchwabCharlesSchwabcontinuestoexecuteontheirdifferentiatedstrategyofprovidinglow-costfinancial services to mass affluent customers and advisors in the U.S. The Companycontinuedtogenerateexcellentandexpandingpre-taxprofitmargins,relativetoitslargecaptiveand independentcompetitors,despiteaggressively lowering tradingcommissionsearlierintheyear,andlaunchinglow-costindexmutualfundsinthemostrecentquarter.AsSchwab attracts more assets to its banking and brokerage platforms, the Company’soverhead expense as a percentage of platform assets continues declining to what wecalculatetoberoughly15basispointsperdollarofassets(trailingfourquartersthroughtheendofSeptember).Thisoverheadexpensecomparestothenearly150basispointsofnetinterestmarginavailabletotheCompanyonalmost$70billionofclientassetsthattheyplanontransferringfrommoneymarketstothebankingsubsidiaryoverthenextthreeyears.Combinedwithadramaticallylowertaxratefortheforeseeablefuture,wethinkSchwabhasauniqueopportunitytosubstantiallygrowitsearningsbaseoverthenextseveralyears.Visa

Visaisamarvel–anincrediblecash-generatingmachine.Visawasoneofourtopperformersinthefourthquarterandforthefullyear. Themultiyeartailwindoftheglobaltransitionaway from cash transactions continues unabated, driving solid double-digit growth inpaymentvolumes,transactions,revenuesandearningsthroughouttheyear.AsoftheendoftheSeptemberquarter,Visaestimatesthatafteralloftheseyearsonlyroughly10%ofglobalpaymentvolumesarepaidby card;with cash, check, andACHstillmakingup theoverwhelmingmajorityoftransactions.WecontinuetoexpectVisatobenefitaselectronicpayments takeshare throughout theworldand increase theirpenetration inall formsoftransactions, fromPersonal Consumption (where cards have a relatively higher, but stillsmall,sharethaninotherformsofpayment)tothesignificantlyunderpenetratedareasofBusiness-to-Business,Person-to-Person,andBusiness-to-Consumer.

TheCompanyisnotrestingonitslaurelswiththeirsuccessintheU.S.BackinJune2016,Visa purchased Visa Europe for awhopping $23 billion – adding over $15 billion on itsbalancesheettofinancethedeal.TheacquisitionwillrecombinetheglobalVisabrandaftereightyearsasseparateentities.

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TheCompanyhaslargeambitionsoutsideofEurope,too.TheU.S.paymentprocessorshavetheircollectiveeyesonthegiantChinesemarket.The$8trillionyuanbankcardnetworkiscurrently dominated by state-backed China UnionPay. We expect the Company (if theyhaven’talready)tobeginpreparingtorequestlicensestooperateinChina.

Aswithmuchofourportfolio,particularlyinourtech-relatedholdings,wearenotconcernedabout the company’s growth prospects or long-term competitive position, but we arekeepinganeyeonvaluation.Visa’scompetitivepositionandcompetitiveadvantageisnearlyunmatched.TheCompanygeneratesbucketsoffreecashflow(FCF)tomatchitscompetitiveposition.Visa’s5-yearaverageFCFperrevenuesisanamazing40%.But,likemostofthemarket,Visaistradingatahealthyvaluationonanabsoluteandrelativehistoricalbasis,butwefeelthatthecompany’ssteadyandhighlyvisiblelonger-termgrowthpotentialinvolume,revenue,earnings,andcashflowsestablishesVisaasanattractivevalueinrelationtoourinvestmentuniverse.

January2018DavidA.Rolfe,CFAMichaelX.Quigley,CFAChiefInvestmentOfficerSeniorPortfolioManagerMorganL.Koenig,CFAChristopherT.Jersan,CFAPortfolioManagerResearchAnalyst

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The information and statistical data contained herein have been obtained fromsources,whichwebelievetobereliable,butinnowayarewarrantedbyustoaccuracyorcompleteness.Wedonotundertaketoadviseyouastoanychangeinfiguresorourviews.Thisisnotasolicitationofanyordertobuyorsell.We,ouraffiliatesandanyofficer,directororstockholderoranymemberoftheirfamilies,mayhaveapositioninandmayfromtimetotimepurchaseorsellanyoftheabovementionedorrelatedsecurities.Pastresultsarenoguaranteeoffutureresults.This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investmentstrategies,individualsecurities,andeconomicandmarketconditions;however,thereisnoguaranteethatthesestatements,opinionsorforecastswillprovetobecorrect.Thesecommentsmayalsoincludetheexpressionofopinionsthatarespeculativeinnatureandshouldnotbereliedonasstatementsoffact.WedgewoodPartnersiscommittedtocommunicatingwithourinvestmentpartnersascandidlyaspossiblebecausewebelieveourinvestorsbenefitfromunderstandingour investment philosophy, investment process, stock selection methodology andinvestortemperament.Ourviewsandopinionsinclude“forward-lookingstatements”whichmayormaynotbeaccurateoverthelongterm.Forward-lookingstatementscan be identified bywords like “believe,” “think,” “expect,” “anticipate,” or similarexpressions. You shouldnot placeundue reliance on forward-looking statements,whicharecurrentasofthedateofthisreport.Wedisclaimanyobligationtoupdateor alter any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,future events or otherwise. Whilewe believewe have a reasonable basis for ourappraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differmateriallyfromthoseweanticipate. The information provided in this material should not be considered arecommendationtobuy,sellorholdanyparticularsecurity.

iReturnsarepresentednetoffeesandincludethereinvestmentofallincome.“Net(Actual)”returnsarecalculatedusingactualmanagementfeesandarereducedbyallfeesandtransactioncostsincurred.