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WEBINAR
Developing a Comprehensive Response to
Climate Change for EU Farming SystemsClimate Change Vulnerability and
Sustainable Adaptation Strategies
Monday, 16th March 2020
AgriAdapt – Brussels 2
Our agenda today
AgriAdapt – Brussels 3
Our webinar instructions
1. All presentations will be available after the webinar.
We’ll send you a download link.
2. Microphones will be muted during presentations.
You can ask questions by chat function.
3. You can ask questions by microphone after the last presentation by unmuting
your microphone.
Please ask questions! Please do not give a co-presentation!
AgriAdapt – Brussels 4
LIFE AgriAdapt
Principle Project Ideas
Demonstrate that the 3 main farming systems (livestock, arable and
permanent crops) can be more climate resilient by implementing
sustainable adaptation measures and strategies.
Show how climate change can be an important and powerful driver
for the necessary shift towards a more sustainable agriculture
AgriAdapt – Brussels 5
LIFE AgriAdapt
TO IMPROVE THE KNOWLEDGE BASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT, ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AT FARM-LEVEL
TO TEST SUSTAINABLE MEASURES AND
MANAGEMENT APPROACHES ON 120 PILOT
FARMS.
TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION
MEASURES BY DEMONSTRATING AND
DISSEMINATING ACTIONS
TO RAISE AWARENESS AND KNOW-HOW OF
CURRENT FARMERS AND FUTURE FARMERS FOR
SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION OPTIONS
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF EU, NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
AgriAdapt – Brussels 6
LIFE AgriAdapt
4 PROJECT PARTNERS
IN 4 EU CLIMATE RISK
AREAS
44 MONTHS
09/2016 – 04/2020
OVERALL BUDGET
2.150.000 EURO
AgriAdapt – Brussels 7
LIFE AgriAdapt
AgriAdapt – Brussels 8
Final vulnerability assessment
of 120 pilot farms across Europe
AgriAdapt – Brussels 9
ADAPTATION & CLIMATE POLICIES
Mitigation
effect
No mitigation
effect
For the near future (time horizon 2050), few differences exist within the different
RCPs scenarios which makes adaptation a necessity for farmers.
REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAY SCENARIOS
RCPS FROM IPPC AR5.
AgriAdapt – Brussels 10
KEY CLIMATIC PARAMETERS FOR CROPS
From a physiological point of view, a crop needs for its development and
growth: radiation, CO2, an accumulation of high temperatures, an accumulation
of low temperatures (for some of them) and water.
Water deficit
Excess water
High temperatures
Low temperatures
4 MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS DEGREE DAYS: ENGINE OF PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
AgriAdapt – Brussels 11
YIELD COMPILATIONSoft wheat - Marne (France)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
19941995
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000
20012002 2003
2004 200520062007
20082009 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
01
-05
to
30-
06
Nb days >25°C. 01-05 to 30-06
Hydric and thermic stress (observations)
Solagro from Agri4Cast
Yields 2000 - 2017
86,0
84,0
87,0
74,0
94,0
82,0
79,0
80,0
77,0
89,0
87,0
84,4
79,6
88,1
93,8
95,9
56,1
81,0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
AgriAdapt – Brussels 12
FROM VULNERABILITY TO ADAPTATION:
A LEARNING PROCESS FOR FARMERS
Vulnerability unknown
Awareness of Vulnerability, but
no solutions identified
Awareness of Vulnerability,
solutions identified but no idea of their
efficiency
Awareness of Vulnerability, solutions
identified and their efficiency (advantages and disadvantages) is
quantified
2020
2017
CLIMATIC HAZARDS...… AND CLIMATE TRAJECTORIES
Hail
Intense
frost
ErosionDrought
Flooding
Heat
wave
AGRIADAPT ROADMAP FOR
ADAPTATION
AgriAdapt – Brussels 13
AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Exposure Impact
Vu
lne
rab
ility
EXPOSURE Frequency of climate
stress
(i.e., key climatic
parameters)
The vulnerability level (or risk level) combine the probability of occurrence of
climate stress (exposure) and the extent of the consequences (crop impact).
IMPACT OR
SENSITIVITY% of crop yield reduction
experienced
VULNERABILITY = EXPOSURE X IMPACT
AgriAdapt – Brussels 14
AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
The assessment helps to prioritize the level of vulnerability.
No scientific unit to measure a risk. To assess the levels of Exposure and
Sensitivity, qualitative evaluation through rating scale is required.
AGRIADAPT VULNERABILITY MATRIX
AgriAdapt – Brussels 15
COMMON DECISION TOOL: RELEVANT POINTS
AgriAdapt – Brussels 16
CLIMATE DATA
AUTOMATIC CALCULATION OF MORE
THAN 75 ACI
- Generic indicators: rainfall, , temperatures, etc.
- Fodder indicators: date for grass regrowth, date
for 1st grazing , etc.
- Cereal crops indicators: end of cycle thermal
and hydric stress, etc.
- Summer crops indicators: temperatures >
32°C, summer hydric deficit, etc.
- Rapeseed crops indicators: drought at sowing,
etc.
- Vineyards and orchards indicators: date of late
frost, Huglin index, etc.
- Animal indicators: temperature-humidity index,
etc.
AgriAdapt – Brussels 17
AgriAdapt pilot farms
AgriAdapt – Brussels 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Cereal crops Tomatoes Orchards Vineyards Dairy milk Beef Pork Sheep
Nu
mb
er
of
pilo
t fa
rms
Estonia Germany France Spain
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
26 2623 22
68
7 8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Spain France Germany Estonia
Nu
mb
er
of
pilo
t fa
rms
Conventionnal Organic
Pilot farms characteristics
Farm size (ha UAA) Minimum Average Maximum
Spain 1 235 1 715
France 48 164 380
Germany 6 113 322
Estonia 10 725 3 770
• Farming systems, farm size, farming practices
AgriAdapt – Brussels 19
Cereal crop pilot farms
Farm size(ha UAA)
Minimum Average Maximum
Estonia (n = 13) 65 1 026 3 770
Germany (n = 12) 31 185 527
France (n = 26) 76 160 380
Spain (n = 6) 11 146 400
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
SPAINn = 6
FRANCEn = 26
GERMANYn = 12
ESTONIAn = 13
Cro
p d
ive
rsit
y in
dic
ato
r
Quartile 1
MIN
Median
MAX
Quartile 3
0
50
100
150
200
250
SPAINn = 6
FRANCEn = 26
GERMANYn = 12
ESTONIAn = 13
Ge
net
ic d
ive
rsit
y (h
a p
er
vari
ety
)
Quartile 1
MIN
Median
MAX
Quartile 3
AgriAdapt – Brussels 20
Dairy milk pilot farms
Number of dairy cows Minimum Average Maximum
Spain (n = 6) 87 156 230
France (n = 7) 32 94 240
Germany (n = 8) 74 117 250
Estonia (n = 9) 65 448 1 819
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
SPAIN
n = 6
FRANCE
n = 7
GERMANY
n = 8
ESTONIA
n = 9
Milk
pro
du
ctio
n p
er c
ow
(lit
res/
year
)
Quartile 1
MIN
Median
MAX
Quartile 3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
SPAIN
n = 6
FRANCE
n = 7
GERMANY
n = 8
ESTONIA
n = 9
% M
ilk r
edu
ctio
n d
ue
to h
eat
wav
e(f
arm
er s
elf
eval
uat
ion
)
Quartile 1
MIN
Median
MAX
Quartile 3
AgriAdapt – Brussels 21
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Climate projections
AgriAdapt – Brussels 22
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Climate projections - Cereals
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
RP NF RP NF RP NF RP NF RP NF RP NF
CASTILE AND LEON(Medina del Campo)
OCCITANIE(Labège, Haute-Garonne)
GRAND EST(Anglure, Marne)
BADEN WÜRTTEMBERG(Konstanz)
BADEN WÜRTTEMBERG(Ortenaukreis)
TARTUMAA
SPAIN* FRANCE* GERMANY* ESTONIA*
ACI - C1 - Heat stress - Cereals(Tx > 25°C 15/04 to 15/07)
Quartile 1
MIN
Median
MAX
Quartile 3
AgriAdapt – Brussels 23
Dairy milk pilot farms
AgriAdapt – Brussels 24
Pilot farms SWOT analysis (1)
AgriAdapt – Brussels 25
Pilot farms SWOT analysis (2)
AgriAdapt – Brussels 33
Sustainable Adaptation:
General proposal per Farming System
AgriAdapt – Brussels 34
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Adaptation issues
Inter-annual
variability
Trends
Extrem
events
Cli
ma
te
va
ria
ble
Time
Adaptation is :
• 1 - Adapting to a trend
• 2 - Reduce inter-annual vulnerability
• 3 - Face extrem events
AgriAdapt – Brussels 35
Arable farms
Soil & farming practices Market
Crop system
Varieties
Water dependency
Insurance
Farm vulnerability components
/ Farm level
AgriAdapt – Brussels 36
Dairy farms
Animal Welfare Market
Fodder system & concentrates
Herd management
Water dependency
Insurance
Farm vulnerability components
/ Farm level
AgriAdapt – Brussels 37
Permanent crop farms
Soil & farming practices Market
Winemaking
Varieties
Water dependency
Insurance
Farm vulnerability components
/ Farm level
AgriAdapt – Brussels 38
Adaptation measures / 3 levels
Examples:
Re-conception of rotation
(new crops) Create a new
economic activity on the
farm.
Efficiency
• The objective is to optimize the current agricultural process, the changes concerned are therefore quite limited
Substitution
• The objective is to substitute componentsof the system without changing the orientation. The changes are more important and therefore more complex to implement
Re design
• The objective is to rethink the overall farm process more suited to climatic constraints.
Examples:
Adjustment of the cultivated
variety (more resistant to heat
or water stress). Sell animals
following a fodder deficit.
Examples:
Substitution of crops
such as corn with sorghum
Diversify forage
components
AgriAdapt – Brussels 39
Arable Farms
Soil and farmingpractices
VarietiesCrop system
Water dependency Advanced
modifications
Wide and diverse crop
rotation
Organic farming
Direct seedingwith cover
Max. soil coverImprove organic
matter contentReduce soil tillage
Select suitable varieties
Limit area sown by variety
Set up a mix of varieties at field
scale
Increase irrigation efficiency
Crop substitution
Improvement of resource
managementComplex mix of
varieties
Adapted sowing date
Crop diversification
Mixed cropping
Key adaptation
measures
AgriAdapt – Brussels 40
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Crop diversificat
ion
Mixed cropping
Limit area sown by variety
Set up a mix of
varieties at field scale
Soil cover Reduced soil tillage
Improvement of
resource managem
ent
Crop substitutio
n
Long and diverse crop rotation
Complex mix of varieties Direct seeding under cover
crop
Optimize growth
regulator and -
stimulators
Introduce of catch- & cover crops and diversification of crop rotation
Select varieties
more suitable for local
conditions
Invest into stabile
varieties that
provide the yield in the local climate
Site specific
agrotechnology,
transition to
precision agriculture
Optimize technologi
cal field capacity;
Invest into improving
the soil fertility
Restore the soil amelioration systems
Operate for land reclamation consortia to manage landscape scale water systems
Adaptation of new varieties, technologies and methods
to follow the dynamic progression of the research
and development
Cultivation of diverse catch crop mixtures
Cultivation of new crops
Cultivating different varieties of one crop
Using varieties
more drought/heat tolerant
Crop residues
remain on the field
Reduced soil tillage
Soil cover throughout the year
Efficient watering systems
Good soil structure by optimized fertilization, diverse crop rotation with adapted crops, soil cover throughout the year, organic fertilisation and a careful soil tillage
Changes in sowing
dates
Crops diversificat
ion
Prove different varieties (different cycles)
Set up a mix of
varieties at field scale
Soil cover More
Organic matter
Crop substitutio
n
Deficit irrigation
Long and diverse crop rotation
Complex mix of varieties Test different combinations of phenology, sowing dates,
and varieties.
Short term Mid term Long term
AgriAdapt – Brussels 41
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Livestock farms
Fodder & concentrates
Animal welfare
Waterdependency
Herd management
Advancedmodificatios
Adapt calving
period
Mineral feed
Feeding
distribution
period
Passive barn
cooling
Increase stocks
Increase nb of
fodder components
Legumes in
grasslandRotational
grazing
Native seeds
Increase irrigation efficiency materials
Reduction of corn silage
Sufficient drinking troughs
Ventilation systems & sprinkling
Natural shade
New barn adapted to heat waves
Extensification
Fodder system / at least 4
components
Key adaptation
measures
AgriAdapt – Brussels 42
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
AgriAdapt – Brussels 43
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
Permanent crops
Field
Farm
Soil & farmingpractices
Waterdependency
Advancedmodifications
Leaf and grape
management
Adapt pruning
High quality vs
high yield
Focus on traditional
varieties
New varieties from
warmer cllimates
Adapt wine making techniques
Max. soil cover
Improve organic matter content
Increase irrigation efficiency materials
Supplementary irrigation
Improvement of resource management
Vine format
New locations (cooler areas)
Modification of PDO
specifications
Vine orientation
Key adaptation
measures
AgriAdapt – Brussels 44
A g r i A d a p t - E C C A 2 0 1 7
AgriAdapt – Brussels 45
• Cultivation aspects
– cultivation of alfalfa with less cuttings
– tall fescue (drought tolerant) – difficult to sow into the grass
– drip irrigation – not efficient for cooling the potato-ridges
– late pruning (vineyards) risks are higher than possible benefits
– reduced soil management: less effective herb management, higher disease pressure
– Permanent cover crops or green covers (in Southern Region, due to water deficit)
• Financial and social efforts
rotational grazing, outlet - wider crop rotation
changing feeding times - investment in pressure regulator (tyres)
introducing agroforestry - high quality vs high yields (permanent crops)
hail nets (low cost/efficiency) - New locations for permanent crops
investments in drainage systems or any other long term measure, because of high share of rented land
REASONS NOT TO IMPLEMENT MEASURES
AgriAdapt – Brussels 46
• External regulations
– requirements from clients for certain varieties
– uncovered outlet
– shading trees ( fellling permits)
– licensing procedures difficult and expensive for watering (e.g. for frost protection)
• Uncertainties in weather
– changing seeding times
– watering (not enough water in surface water)
– undersowing
• No „benefit“ for farm
• introducing legumes (except for Southern region)
• cultivation of meslins, clover-grass, legumes
REASONS NOT TO IMPLEMENT MEASURES
4 Key measures
« No regret adaptation »
Diversification
ExtensificationSoil
conservation
Livestock buildings
AgriAdapt – Brussels 48
The Adaptation Training Pack &
AgriAdapt Webtool for Adaptation
(AWA)
AgriAdapt – Brussels 49
Farming Adaptation Training Pack
CONTENTS
A. The project
B. European Agrarian Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change
• 1 European Context
• 2 Atlantic Climate Zone
• 3 Continental Climate Zone
• 4 Southern Climate Zone
• 5 Northern Climate Zone
C. Project Methodology
D. Sustainable Adaptation Measures
E. The relationship between: adaptation to climate change and farm
competitiveness, environmental synergies, regulations compliance &
market opportunities. Communication tools
F. Study cases on pilot farms (Short videos and documents)
G. Posters for training
AgriAdapt – Brussels 50
Is this training pack useful for you?
TARGET PUBLIC:– Agrarian Structures: cooperatives, unions,
associations
– Training entities, Capacity building
– Agrarian Insurance companies
– AgriFood Labels and Standards
AgriAdapt – Brussels 51
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0
International License. To view a copy of this license, visit
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative
Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA.
• Creative Commons (CC)
• Attribution (BY)
• Share-alike (SA) License
TRAINING PACK FORMAT
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Conclusion
Key Components for Sustainable AdaptationSoil Management
• Living Soils with a high amount of organic matter can absorb and store water.
Nutrient Management
• Combine organic matter, nutritional needs, soil biota/structure to an integrated nutrition management.
Water Management
• Combination of techniques to reduce water needs, improve water retention/storage in soils, and higher
water use efficiency.
Pest Management
• Stronger focus on IPM, reduce chemical pesticides (resistances and decrease of beneficial fauna).
Income and Profit
• Almost every adaptation measure will result in better yields and better profit.
Risks
• Farming adaptation strategies can be supported by an insurance
Animal Welfare
• Adaptation measures to reduce thermal stress in livestock reduce risk of lower production.
Biodiversity
• Biodiversity is an important cross-section element for all other elements above.
AgriAdapt – Brussels 71
Closing Remarks
www.agriadapt.euAgriAdapt Manual
AgriAdapt Webtool
AgriAdapt Training Pack
AgriAdapt Videos
AgriAdapt News
AgriAdapt Newsletter
AgriAdapt – Brussels 72
Closing Remarks
AgriAdapt Manual AgriAdapt Training Pack
AgriAdapt – Brussels 73
Closing Remarks
AgriAdapt Webtool awa.agriadapt.eu (release: end of March 2020)
AgriAdapt – Brussels 74
Closing Remarks
AgriAdapt Videos
AgriAdapt – Brussels 75
Closing Remarks
AgriAdapt News
AgriAdapt – Brussels 76