Population problems and solutions –

Specific examples

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I. Purpose of using these specific examples in this module

This module aims at enabling students:1. to identify the causes and characteristics of the major population problems, including

overpopulation, under-population and ageing population.

2. to understand the measures adopted by different countries in dealing with the problems.

II. Curriculum tailoring for students of different abilities 1. For the more able students, teachers can consider asking them to conduct a more in-depth

study of the population problems in one of the specific examples. Alternatively, they can conduct a comparison study of the population policy of China with that of another country.

2. For the brightest students, teachers can further extend the study, pending the availability of time and the interest of their students, to examine population movement in China or in a Western European country like Germany.

III. How to make use of the information provided in this folder? 1. A brief overview of the world population and data of specific examples have been provided as

a general introduction to this topic.

2. Each specific example includes a description of the population problems faced by specific country and measures adopted to tackle the problem.

3. Teachers need not cover all the information provided in this folder. Instead it is advisable for them to select appropriate example(s) and refine the materials based on the ability and interest of their students.

4. Teachers can make use of the materials as: Background information for students to understand the kinds of population problems and

how those problems are being tackled by different countries; Information for comparing the population policy of China with that of another country; Information for examining population movement in a Western European country like

Germany; Materials for self-study.

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The world population has reached 7.3 billion in 2014. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the world population has increased rapidly. The world population reached one billion in around 1800. It took only another 130 years to reach the second billion in 1930. It grew faster in later years, reaching the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974) and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). It reached 7.3 billion in October 2015.

Figure 1 World Total Population: 1950-2050

Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base, June 2012 Update.

Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14% annually. Annual growth rate has reached its peak in 1963 which was about 2.19%. Recently, the annual growth rate was declining and was projected to decline in the coming years. In 2010, it was estimated that the growth rate will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.

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Figure 2 World population growth rate 1950-2010

Table 1 The top ten largest countries by population (live) as at 14 October 2015.Rank Name of country No. of population

(in millions)Percentage of world population

1 China 1404 19.12 India 1287 17.53 USA 326 4.44 Indonesia 257 3.55 Brazil 204 2.86 Pakistan 189 2.67 Nigeria 185 2.58 Bangladesh 161 2.29 Russia 142 1.910 Japan 127 1.7

Reference:You can browse the following website to know the current world population.

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World meters – real-time world statisticshttp://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#total

Table 2 Total population (in million) of various countries of the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

CountryYear

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013China 651 716 820 917 985 1058 1148 1216 1263 1298 1330 1350Germany

72.5 75.6 77.8 78.7 78.3 77.7 79.4 81.7 82.2 82.4 81.6 81.1

India 445 495 554 619 685 760 838 921 1006 1091 1173 1221Japan 94 99 104 112 117 121 124 125 127 128 128 127Nigeria 42 48 56 64 75 85 97 110 124 142 162 175Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

Table 3 Crude birth rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

CountryYear

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013China 40 38 31 22 18 21 21 17 13 12 12 12Germany

18 16 11 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 8

India 41 40 37 36 35 34 31 28 26 23 21 20Japan* 17 19 19 17 14 12 10 10 10 9 9 8Nigeria 49 49 49 49 48 46 45 44 44 42 40 39Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; *Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;

UN data (numbers in bold and italic)

Table 4 Crude death rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

CountryYear

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013China 21 11 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7Germany

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11

India 24 21 18 15 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7

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Japan* 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9Nigeria 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 16 14 13Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; *Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;

UN data (numbers in bold and italic)

Table 5 Life expectancy at birth of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

CountryYear

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013China 44 59 65 66 67 68 68 69 71 74 75 75Germany

70 71 71 72 73 74 75 76 78 79 80 80

India 43 47 51 54 55 57 58 60 62 65 66 67Japan 69 71 73 75 76 78 79 80 81 82 83 84Nigeria 43 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 49 51 52Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; UN data (numbers in bold and italic)

References:1. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan

http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english

2. The World Bank – datahttp://data.worldbank.org

3. United States Census Bureau - International data basehttp://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

4. UN Datahttp://data.un.org

5. Video on “Population Problems in India” – duration: 9:01”http://cncworld.tv/news/v_show/16483_Population_problem_in_India.shtml

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I. Aging population in Japan

Japan’s total population in 2014 was 127 million. This ranked tenth in the world and made up 1.8% of the world’s total. Japan’s population increased rapidly after the Meiji Restoration in 1868 but has been decreasing sharply from 1960s. Table 6 shows the birth rates, death rates and natural increase rates in Japan from 1950 to 2013. The natural increase rate has been decreasing sharply from 1980 and the country experienced a negative growth rate from 2005. It was because the birth rate was lower than the death rate. Fewer babies were born in these few years. In addition, there was a strict immigration law which limited the incoming of immigrants. If these conditions do not change, the population projection will expect a negative population growth up to 2050. So the population is shrinking in Japan.

Table 6 Birth rates, death rates and natural increase rates in Japan

YearRates per 1000 population

Live births Deaths Natural increase1950 28.1 10.9 17.21955 19.4 7.8 11.61960 17.2 7.6 9.61965 18.6 7.1 11.41970 18.8 6.9 11.81975 17.1 6.3 10.81980 13.6 6.2 7.31985 11.9 6.3 5.61990 10.0 6.7 3.31995 9.6 7.4 2.12000 9.5 7.7 1.82005 8.4 8.6 -0.22010 8.5 9.5 -1.02013 8.2 10.1 -1.9

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan

Besides, the proportion of elderly was increasing in recent years. Table 7 shows the percentage of population in different age groups in Japan. It can be seen that aged population (65 years and over) constituted 25.9% of the total population in 2014 which was the highest in the world.

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Table 7 Percentage of population in different age groups in Japan

Age groupYear

1950 2014 2050 (Projection)0-14 35.4 12.8 9.715-64 59.6 61.3 51.5

65 and over 4.9 25.9 38.8Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,

Japan

The growth of aged population in Japan was faster than that of many western European countries or the USA. In 1970, aged population in Japan was only 7.1% and it took 24 years to double to 14.1% in 1994. Comparing with other countries, it took Germany 40 years, the United Kingdom 47 years and Italy 61 years for the percentage of the elderly to double from 7 to 14%. The reason why Japan was aging faster than other countries was because the life expectancy of the population in Japan was much longer than that of other countries. Table 8 shows the life expectancy of both male and female in Japan. In 1950, the life expectancy in Japan was 59.57 for males and 62.97 for females. In 1970, the figures increased to 69.31 for males and 74.66 for females. On the other hand, for this same period in Germany, the average life expectancy for males and female increased only 3.5 years of age, in France it was 5.9 years of age, in the US it was 2.8 years of age and in the UK it was only 2.3 years of age. Table 8 Life expectancy of male and female at birth in Japan from 1950 to 2013

YearLife expectancy at birth (years)

Males Females1950 59.57 62.971955 63.60 67.751960 65.32 70.191965 67.74 72.921970 69.31 74.661975 71.73 76.891980 73.35 78.761985 74.78 80.481990 75.92 81.901995 76.38 82.852000 77.72 84.602005 78.56 85.522010 79.55 86.302013 80.21 86.61

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,

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Japan

After the Second World War, Japan experienced the postwar “economic miracle”. Rapid economic growth raised personal incomes, enabling people to have better living standards and diets. Economic prosperity also supported better medical services. Therefore, people could live longer than in the past. However, the birth rates kept on decreasing because people got married at a later age as more women started to work and became economically independent. There was also a powerful and deep-rooted practice of birth control which cannot be changed suddenly. Families also tended to have fewer children as the cost of raising a child increased. Therefore, fewer new-born babies have to support an increasing number of aged people. Many problems associated with aging population has arisen.

II. Problems associated with aging population in Japan

Increase in aging population and decrease in birth rates implies a decrease in the number of workforce. It has been projected that the national workforce of people from the ages of 15-65 will shrink to half of the total population between 2012 and 2060. So fewer people can be engaged in production.

As Japan has a well-established pension system, an increasing number of the aged would mean more people getting the pensions after their retirement. With a decreasing working population in recent years mentioned in the previous paragraph, the amount of contribution to the pension system is likely to be shrunk, unable to meeting the increasing draw-out by the rising number of elderly people. This will leave a big burden to the society in the future.

An increasing number of elderly people also imply an increasing demand for medical and social services. This increasing demand creates a heavy financial burden on the government.

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1 Dependency ratio is the ratio between the dependent population, ie. people under the age of 15 and over 64 to the

working population. High dependency ratio means that fewer working population has to support the elder population.

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III. Solutions to ageing problem in Japan

1. Reforming the pension system

Japan is famous for its well-established public pension system for the elderly. People retired usually got a lot of benefits. However, this system put a heavy financial burden to the government if the dependency ratio1 of the elderly is too high. Reform to this pension system has already been introduced by the Japanese Government: The rights to access to a pension have been postponed from

60 to 65 years of age. Personal contribution to the pension system will be raised

from 15% of the salary in 2009 to 30% in 2018. In 2009, the Treasury’s contribution to the basic pension has

been cut by half. The benefits given to the elderly have been diminished. For

example, starting from 2006, Japanese who are 70 and above and have a yearly income over ￥ 5.2 million have to personally pay for 30% of their medical costs instead of the previous 20%.

Workers are encouraged to subscribe to private pension plans instead of relying on the public system alone.

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2. Increasing labour supply This can be done by importing labour from foreign countries. There

is especially a need to fill in the lower-paid and manual jobs, mostly in the manufacturing industry. A move in that direction was the release of the Immigration Control Law in the early 1990s which enabled many South Americans to move into Japan. In addition, Japanese companies have also started recruiting international students from both foreign and Japanese universities. However the infusion of immigrants into the Japanese society was difficult owing to the strong rejection of foreigners deep-rooted in the Japanese culture. So cultural and perception changes are necessary for the country to attract more new immigrants.

In order to increase labour force, policies should be made to promote and encourage more women to enter the labour force, including reducing discrimination and inequality against female workers in accessing permanent jobs and stable salaries. More help should also be given to working mothers so that their children can be taken care of.

Extension of the age of retirement is another possible way of increasing labour force. In fact, the Japanese Government has already extended the retirement age from 60 to 65 so that existing workers can work longer. The participation rate for men aged 60-64 has been increased from 71% in 2006 to 77% in 2009.

3. Us e of technology Being an advanced country in technology, Japan has started to

introduce the use of robots to substitute man labour. In 2005, there were over 370,000 robots working in factories across Japan. This accounts for about 40% of the global total. There are 32 robots for every 1000 Japanese manufacturing employees. There are also projects to explore the possibility of using robot to look after the elderly.

References:

1. Matsutani Akihiko. (2006) Shrinking – Population Economics – Lessons from Japan. International House of Japan: Japan.

2. Immigration to Japan as a solution to the ageing of the populationhttps://iepweb.sciencespo-rennes.fr/bibli_doc/download/265

3. Japan: Aging population needs more than short-term solutionshttp://www.ipsnews.net/2009/12/japan-aging-population-needs-more-than-short-term-solutions

4. Japan looks to new technology to cater ageing populationhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/hapan-looks-to-new/731982.html

5. Japan’s population problemhttp://www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population-ageing-business-oxford-analytical.html

6. Japan’s population suffers biggest fall in historyhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9999591/Japans-popuulation-suffers-biggest-fall-in-history.html

7. Population - Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, Director-General for Policy Planning (Statistical standards) and statistical research and training institutehttp://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c0117.htm#c02

8. Working paper series – Population aging: facts, challenges and responses, Program on the global demography of aginghttp://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_71.pdf

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I. Overpopulation in India

By January 2015, the total population of India was 1.3 billion, an increase of 1.34% per year. India homes 17.5% of the world population but it occupies only 2.4% of the world’s land area. It is estimated that by 2025, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation with a population of 1.4 billion.

Before the independence of the country in 1947, India’s population growth was mainly checked by famines and diseases. The death rate was high. So the population growth was not too rapid even though the birth rate was high. However, after its independence, India experienced significant improvement in medical services and the hygienic environment, with the major diseases came under control. Its death rate decreased and reached a low level by the 70s. On the other hand, the birth rate remained high, mainly due to cultural factor. Most of the Indians have a strong desire to have a son in the family. Married couples will continue to have children until they give birth to a son. In addition, many Indian girls got marry at an early age. In 2011, 43% of adolescent girls in India were married before the age of 18. This was because many families wanted to save the money in raising daughters. Moreover, although birth control had been introduced in India as early as in the 1950s, many people, especially those living in the rural areas, didn’t get access to the methods. Therefore, population was growing at a high rate. The following table shows the crude birth and death rate and the natural increase rate of India from 1960 to 2013.

Table 9 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of India between 1960 and 2013 *per 1000 population Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

Year Crude birth rate* Crude death rate* Natural increase rate*1960 41 24 171965 40 21 191970 37 18 191975 36 15 211980 35 12 231985 34 11 231990 31 11 201995 28 10 182000 26 9 172005 23 8 152010 21 8 13

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2013 20 7 13

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II. Problems associated with overpopulation in India Overpopulation has caused several problems in India:

1. Competition for resources As the amount of resources is rather limited, overpopulation means that resources are

shared by more people. Problems resulting from this include:

People need to struggle for clean water and food. According to an estimation done in 2013, about 53% of Indian population below the age of 5 was malnourished and 37% had no access to safe drinking water. Malnutrition made children prone to illness and retarded their physical and intellectual growth.

People needed to live in a crowded and poor environment. Slums were common in big cities where people tried to live near to city centre to find jobs.

There are insufficient medical and social services to satisfy the demand of the people.

2. Environmental problems Too many people created much waste. The present infrastructure may not be able to handle

such huge amount of waste. This caused many hygienic problems and diseases. Health of the people was affected.

3. Economic problems The economy of the country was affected in the following ways:

If population growth rate is faster than the economic growth rate, some people may not be able to find jobs. Therefore unemployment was common.

Increasing population meant that there was a need to provide more social and medical services. This put a heavy economic burden onto the government. Tax has to be raised in order to cover this increasing amount of expenses. Therefore, more taxpayers may suffer from this.

Video on “Population Problems in India” – duration: 9:01”http://cncworld.tv/news/v_show/16483_Population_problem_in_India.shtml

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III. Solutions to the problem

1. Family planning and birth control

Ever since the 1950s when the Indian government expected an increasing population, the First Five-Year Plan of the country has put forward a programme for ‘family limitation and population control’ which made it the first country to promote family planning and birth control. However, it was unsuccessful in the early years because of the traditional belief of the Indian and the availability of the contraceptive measures. Nowadays, family planning is promoted by: Providing incentives to encourage contraception. These incentives include both

community and cash incentives. Community incentives are to give priority to the construction of roads, schools and drinking water facilities for the community if birth control target can be met. Cash incentives are given to the individuals who have been sterilized.

Providing quality and readily available contraceptive information to women, especially those living in rural parts of India.

2. Education

Education can help to change the mind-set of the general public that a son is better than a daughter. So people may not give a lot of birth until they got a son. However, since such culture is so deep-rooted in people’s mind, it is difficult to change it in a short period of time.

2 It is a system for the bride’s family to bring money or property to her husband at marriage. In India, if the bride can

only afford a small amount of dowry, the whole family will feel ashamed.

References:

1. Dyson Tim, Cassen Robert and Visaria Leela (Eds.) (2004). Twenty first century India: Population, Economy, Human Development and the Environment. India: Oxford University Press.

2. Gender Empowerment is Key to India’s Overpopulation Challengehttp://mistoverthehimalayas.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/gender-empowerment-is-key-to-indias-overpopulation-challenge

3. India Populationhttp://countrymeters.info/en/India

4. India population: Is sterilization the answer?http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/india/100713/population-growth-sterilization-millennium-development-goals?page=0,0

5. Overpopulation could be people, planet problemhttp://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/Science/09/25/overpopulation.overview

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3. Laws and legislation

It has been proposed that there should be strict laws to abolish child marriages which will promote women to have babies at a very early age.

In addition, there are also proposals to introduce laws against the dowries system2 and supportive laws for women to inherit properties are needed so that the strong son-preference of Indian parents can be corrected.

However, all these laws have not yet been drafted.

6. Overpopulation of Indiahttp://www.kdehart.com/writings/overpopulation.htm

7. Overpopulation: The main cause of poverty in India?http://www.chakreview.com/social-issues/Overpopulaion-the-main-cause-of-poverty-in-India

8. Short notes on the problem of over population in Indiahttp://www.preservearticles.com/201105247038/short-notes-on-the-problem-of-over-population-in-india

9. The Wall Street Journal - India Journal: Overpopulation? I’ll buy thathttp://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/10/07/india-journal-overpopulation-i%E2%80%99ll-buy-that

10. World Population Awareness – Population Dynamics of Indiahttp://www.overpopulaiton.org/India.html

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I. Germany – a country experiencing a negative population growth

The population in Germany in 2015 was around 82.5 million. She was the 16 th most populous country in the world and was also the largest country in the European Union. However, its birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, staying at 8 per thousand since 2005. It is predicted that her population will continue to decrease in the years to come. Between 2000 and 2013, Germany’s birth rate has dropped by 11% compared to an increase of 4.3% in the UK, 3.6% in France, 12.8% in Spain and 8.9% in Ireland. In addition, in every year since 1970, the death rate of Germany has been greater than her birth rate. This situation will continue as the large birth cohorts in the past will move into old age. The population of Germany, as a result, is dropping. It is predicted that her population will fall by 19% to 66 million by 2060.

Table 10 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Germany from 1960 - 2013

Year Crude birth rate* Crude death rate* Natural increase rate*1960 18 12 61965 16 12 41970 11 12 -11975 10 12 -21980 11 12 -11985 11 12 -11990 11 12 -11995 9 11 -22000 9 10 -12005 8 10 -22010 8 11 -32013 8 11 -3

*per 1000 population

Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

The crude birth rate remained low because of women’s easier access to education. More women worked in the labour market and they had little time to take care of their children. There were not enough facilities provided for working mothers to look after their children, such as day care and after-school programs. In addition, the birth rate is expected to be even lower due to the

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country’s high unemployment rates and dim employment prospects in recent years. The government has tried to encourage more baby birth by granting “parents’ allowance” which

was about 65% of their salary per month up to 14 months after the birth of the baby. In addition, the government guaranteed every child over the age of one a childcare place. However, these measures are not effective in changing the mind-set of people to have more babies.

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II. Immigration in Germany

A declining population means that there is less labour force to work in production. This may hinder the economic development of a country. In order to fill up the gap of the declining population, immigration can be a way to solve the problem. In 2013, among the 27 European Union States, Germany has the highest percentage of immigrants in its population. About 12% of the German population living in Germany was born outside Germany. Most immigrants came from other European countries, particularly from Turkey, Russia, Poland and Italy.

Ever since 1950s, Germany has tried to encourage immigrants to enter the country as “guest workers”. This was because the post-war economic boom has created many jobs in the industrial sector. Therefore, immigrants were attracted to work in factories by giving cash bonuses and welcome gift. In the early years, there were also immigrants for the reason of asylum seeking and reunification. However, after the Oil Crisis in 1973, the demand for foreign workers decreased. So there was a strict control over immigration the year after.

In 2005, the new Immigration Law was enforced which attracted medium-skilled and highly-skilled labour into Germany because there was an increasing demand for workers due to the shrinking population. The details of the Law are as follows:

It allowed highly qualified non-EU workers such as scientists or top-level managers to obtain a residence permit of unlimited duration.

Companies could hire non-EU workers if there were no Germans available for the job.

References:

1. Facts about Germany: Immigration and integrationhttp://www.tatsachen-ueber-deutschland.de/en/society/main-content-08/immigration-and-integration.html

2. Germany’s birthrate is the lowest in Europe – and falling fasthttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/21/germany-birthrate-low-falling

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Immigration of those who planned to establish a business was welcomed. They were required to invest at least a million euros in their project and added at least 10 new jobs.

Foreign students were allowed to stay in Germany for a year after finishing their studies to look for a job.

The new Immigration Law seemed to be quite effective in increasing the number of workforce. One million people have been relocated to Germany in 2012. Among these immigrants, over 80% came from countries like Poland, Romania, Greece, Spain and Italy. 43% of them were between the ages of 15 and 65 with a master certification, university degree or a degree from a technical school. In contrast, only 26% of German born citizens had comparable qualifications. Although foreigners were attracted, they may not stay long if the economy of their mother country became better. Therefore, the German government proposed the following policies to help the new migrants integrate into the society so that they will make Germany their permanent home:

Set up language courses for new migrants Help people get their qualifications recognized Recruit foreigners to study at Germany universities and help them to find jobs Promote integration between immigrants and local residents.

3. Germany fights population drophttp://ww.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/world/europe/germany-fights-population-drop.html?_r=0

4. Germany learning to open arms to immigrantshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/21/us-germany-immigration-idUSBRE96K02B20130721

5. German immigration increases at record speedhttp://euobserver.com/justice/121852

6. Germany: Immigration in Transitionhttp://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=235

7. Germany’s population by 2060: Results of the 12th coordinated population projectionhttp://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Population/GermanyPopulation2060.pdf?_blob=publicationFile

8. Mail Online: German population shrinks as QUARTER of men say ‘no’ to kidshttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398796/German-population-shrinks-QUARTER-men-say-kids.html

9. Many immigrants leave Germany within a yearhttp://www.spiegel.de/international/germnay/oecd-study-finds-large-numbers-of-immigrants-leave-germany-a-905583.html

10. Opinion: How to boost the German birth ratehttp://www.dw.de/opinion-how-to-boost-the-german-birth-rate/a-1935744

11. Population movement in Germanyhttp://laboureconomics.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/population-movement-in-germany/

12. World Population Review: Germany Populationhttp://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/germany-population/

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I. Overpopulation problems in Nigeria

The total population of Nigeria was 178.5 million by July 2014, which has increased by 268% during the last 50 years (Figure 3). In 2014, the population of Nigeria represented 2.46% of the world’s total population, ranking 7 in the world’s population. The birth rate remained high with 39 per 1000 in 2012, i.e. every woman gives birth to at least 5.38 children. By looking at Table 11, the natural increase rate stayed high at about 26/1000 people, i.e. the population grew continuously. It was expected to surpass that of US by 2050. By 2100, Nigeria’s population is expected to be 730 million, just slightly lowered than that of India and China.

Figure 3 Total population in Nigeria: 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

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40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

n)

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Year

Table 11 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Nigeria between 1960 and 2013

Year Crude birth rate* Crude death rate* Natural increase rate*1960 49 21 281965 49 21 281970 49 20 291975 49 20 291980 48 20 281985 46 19 271990 45 19 261995 44 19 252000 44 18 262005 42 16 262010 40 14 262013 39 13 26

*per 1000 population

Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

A large population posed many problems to Nigeria. There is a need for resources to support the people. Much money has to be spent on importing food or providing basic facilities for the people. Therefore, the economic development will be hindered. People, especially those living in big cities, need to live in a crowded environment. Infrastructure is insufficient to support the people. There are not enough job opportunities and unemployment rate is high, nearly 50% for people in urban areas aged 15-24. Poor living conditions together with high unemployment rate create much discontent among the people in Nigeria.

People in Nigeria tended to born more babies mainly because of cultural factor. In African cultures, large families signal prosperity and importance. Besides, polygamy is widespread. So families are usually large in size. Nigeria is a religious country with the majority of her people being Roman Catholics and Muslims, who are opposed to contraception. Fewer than 20% Nigerians practiced contraceptive measures. So birth control is not popular in Nigeria. In addition, with high infant mortality rate, people incline to give more birth to secure their family size. The problem will be worsened if no further action is taken. It is because in 2011, about 28% of the population was female with the age of 12-24years. This proportion is expected to reach about 30% in 2020. Most girls in Nigeria will get married at an early age. In 2008, 23% of the teenage girls were already mothers or likely to be pregnant and half of the women were already married at age 18, while 1 in 5 are married at age 15. This means that more women are at their peak reproductive age and the population will continue to increase.

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II. Measures adopted to control population growth

A. Work done by international organizations and foreign countries

1. Family Planning Summit – London, July 2012

The problem of continuous population growth in many less developed countries has posed an alarm to the world. Since these countries may not be able to help themselves, the United Kingdom Government, with the support of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and several national governments have held the captioned Summit to discuss ways to help the less developed countries, including Nigeria to ease their population problems. The targets of the Summit are to: provide affordable, life-saving contraceptive information, services and supplies to an

additional 120 million women and girls in less developed countries by 2020 as well as prevent over 200,000 women dying in pregnancy and childbirth. It is hoped that the contraceptive prevalence rate can be raised to 36% by 2018; and

enhance maternal and child survival. People in less developed countries tended to have more children because there was a high infant mortality rate. People are afraid that their children cannot grow up. Therefore, more input will be put into the health care system to reduce maternal and infant mortality rate.

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In order to achieve these targets, partner countries of the Summit would help the less developed countries to devise the following policies to:

mobilize financial and health system resources for contraceptives and service delivery at the country level, and increase those resource contributions over time; and

ensure women’s access to preferred contraceptive methods.

However, all these targets and objectives were still in the planning stage. The Nigerian government needed to take a more active response to the help of the partner countries of the Summit.

2. Work done by US Agency for International Development (USAID) （美國國際開發署）

Ever since the mid-eighties, officials of the US Department of State and USAID have tried to build a network of “family planning” services in Nigeria to control its population growth. However, little has been achieved. The main problem is that the majority of Nigerians are Muslims or Catholics who oppose artificial contraception.

The following are the work done by USAID in Nigeria:

In order to remove the religious obstacle to contraception, USAID launched the “Islam and Population Policy” project which aims to disseminate correct concepts on Islam and family planning. It is hoped that through education, population policy can be implemented more easily. The project also aims to convince leaders in poor countries to formulate and implement national policies to reduce birth rate.

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“The Days of Dialogue” are organised to involve religious leaders and faith-based organizations in consultations and trainings to discuss health, marriage and education for young girls.

Radio shows are produced to encourage young girls to stay in school and delay marriage.

However, the effectiveness of this policy is still very low. This is because the Nigerians have a very strong cultural belief and tradition. They thought that children are their pride, power and wealth. Average Nigerian women are likely to give birth to 6-7 children during her reproductive lifetime. In addition, the policy failed because it is initiated by a foreign country and agency. Nigerians thought that this is a form of foreign intervention. So they refused to accept family planning policy.

B. Work done by local government

The National Population Commission of Nigeria has formulated the “National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development 2004” which outlined the strategies to face the challenges posed by rapid population growth. The Policy targets to:

achieve a reduction of national population growth rate to 2% or lower by 2015. achieve a reduction in total fertility rate at least 0.6 children every 5 years. increase the modern contraceptive prevalence rate by at least 2% per year. reduce the infant, child and maternal mortality rate. eliminate illiteracy and improve education especially for girls.

References:

1. Counselling and population control in Nigeriahttp://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/JHE/JHE-22-0-000-000-2007-Web/JHE-22-2-000-000-2007-Abstract-PDF/JHE-22-2-101-07-1432-Omohan-M-E/JHE-22-2-101-07-1432-Omohan-M-E-Tt.pdf

2. Family planning summit – London, July 2012http://www.who.int/pmnch/about/steering_committee/b12-12-item5_fp_summit.pdf

3. Worldometers - Nigeria population29

The following are measures devised to meet the above targets:

educate every Nigerian child of full secondary school education. For example, in Northwest Nigeria, there was a plan to set up 100 schools each year for the next 4 years starting from 2012.

promote to married couples the use of modern and natural family planning methods. Health facilities are improved to enable people, especially young adolescents, to get access to reproductive health services.

increase coverage of population and family life education programmes. support reproductive and sexual health programmes in the formal and non-formal

education system. increase opportunities for women to participate in national development activities. increase youth employment.

Although this policy has been given a national priority, the success depends on the commitment, co-operation, collaboration and support of all stakeholders. The government also needs to face great opposition from cultural and religious groups.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/

4. National Population Commission of Nigeriahttp://www.commonwealthgovernance.org/partners/national-population-commission-of-nigeria

5. Nigeria demographics profile 2013http://www.indexmundi.com/nigeria/demographics_profile.html

6. Nigeria expected to have larger population than US by 2050http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-US-2050

7. Nigeria populationhttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/population

8. Nigerian president’s call for birth control sparks debatehttp://www.voanews.com/content/nigeria-birth-control-debate/1275536.html

9. Nigeria tested by rapid rise in populationhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/in-nigeria-a-preview-of-an-overcrowded-planet.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

10. Nigeria’s troubling population policyhttp://www.punchng.com/opinion/nigerias-troubling-population-policy/?print=1

11. Out of Africa: The case of Nigeriahttp://www.pop.org/content/case-nigeria-818

12. Population Council – Nigeriahttp://www.popcouncil.org/countries/nigeria.asp

13. Population – size and growth rateshttp://www.onlinenigeria.com/population/?blurb=132

14. Statement by Jamin Dora Zubema Directo-General National Population Commission on 30

adolescents and youths at the 45th session of the United Nations Commission on Population and Development (UNCP&D)http://www.un.org/esa/population/cpd/cpd2012/Agenda%20item%20item%204/Country%20statements/Nigeria_Item4.pdf

15. The integration of the National Population Policy into regional planning process for sustainable development in Nigeriahttp://www.google.com.hk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CHUQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecolabconsult.com%2Fcomponent%2Fsimpledownload%2F%3Ftask%3Ddownload%26fileid%3D%252Fdownload%252FNIPPSS%2BLECTURE.doc&ei=SBoMU-SVKsnIiAeN8oGQDg&usg=AFQjCNF4OvhUA-bqZheNYsjVxQN_5L9ODg&sig2=uxt6SDL3KUsnEZRA3VN3UA

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