Weather Modification - 1966

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ICAS Report No. 10a

November 1966

A Recommended National Program

In Weather Modification

A Report to the

Interdepartmental Committee forAtmospheric Sciences

Homer E. Newell

bY

Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application

National Aeronautics Si Space Administration

Washington, D.C.

Interdepartmental Committee

for

Atmospheric Sciences

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DONALD F. HORWIG, ChairmanSpecial Assistant t o the President for Science and Technology

Jowl S. PW!Wt, JR.

Department of Defense

J. HERBERT H O L U X W

Department of Camerce

G-T. SEABORGA t d c Energy Camlssion

LELAND J. HAwOR!CERational Science Foundation

PH LI P Re LEE JAMES E. WEBBDepartment of Health, Education, and National Aeronautics and SpaceWelfare Administration

THCWS F. BATESDepartment of the Interior

EEIWAt? POLLACK (Observer)Department of State

WILLLAM F. McKEE (Observer)Federal Aviation Agency

JACK W. CARISOH (Observer)Council of Ekonolpic Advisers

GEORGEL. MEHRWDepartment of Agriculture

W I L L I A M D. CAREX (Observer)Bureau of the B u d g e t

HERBFST SCOVIIU, JR. (Observer)Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

S. DILLON RI pLey (Observer)Smithsonian Insti tution

CHARtES V. KIDDExecutive Secretary

J. HEREERT H O L L W N I chsim

Federal Council for Science and Technology

UZUND J. HAWORTH, Vice ChairmanNational Science Foundation

RO[BERTM. WHITEDepartment of Camnerce

RICHARD A. PRINDUDepartment of Health, Education, and

JOSHUA Z. HaLIdl4D (Acting)

Atamic Energy Cammission

Welfare

HERMAN mucicDepartment of State

LEE m m mFederal Commrnicatlons Caannission

SAMUEL A. IAWREEE (Observer)Bureau of the B u d g e t

CLAY'IQR E. JWSEN (Observer)Office of the Federal Coordinator for

hieteo-ogicd. Services and S u ~ ~ o r t i n gResearch

THMlDoRE C. B m YDepartment of Agriculture

DONALD M. MCARTMmDepartment of Defense

HaMERE.National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

THaMAs F. BATES

De-n of the Interior

JOSEWD. BLATTFederal Aviation Agency

DAvlD Z. ROBINSON (Observer)Office of Science and Technology

JOHN R. SIEVERS (Observer)National Academy of Sciences

smmmw. BETllsExecutive Secretary



FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 2 0 2 3 0

I CAS Repor t No. 10a

November 7, 1966

MEMORANDUM FOR DR. DONALD F. HORNI G

Subj ect: Weat her Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr am

At i t s meet i ng of March 29, 1966 t he Fe ~dr 61 ouncil askel I CASt o pr epar e a r epor t out l i ni ng "who i s doi ng what i n weat hermodi f i cat i on, t he f ut ur e pl ans of t he agenci es ( par t i cul ar l yCommerce and I nt er i or ) and t hei r i nt er r el at i onshi ps, and t heconsi der at i ons t hat shoul d af f ect deci si ons on t he di vi si on ofr esponsi bi l i t i es f or r esear ch i n weat her modi f i cat i on. "

For warded herewi t h i s a Repor t pr epar ed f or I CAS by 3r . Homer E.Newel l , t he NASA member of I CAS. I t has been t hor oughl y con-si der ed by our Comm t t ee and i s endorsed as t he I CAS r esponse

t o t he Counci l ' s r equest above.

J . Herbert Hol l omonChai r man



A Recommended National Program

In Weather Modification

A Report to the

Interdepartmental Committee for

Atmospheric Sciences

bY

Homer E. Newel1

Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications

lVational Aero nadc s A Space Administration

Washington, D.C.'

1 October 1966



A RECOMMENDED NATI ONAL PROGRAM I N WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON

I NTRODUCTI ON

The ear t h' sJ eat her has a prof ound i nf l uence on

agr i cul t ur e, f or est r y, wat er r esources, i ndust r y, com

mer ce, t r anspor t at i on, const r uct i on, f i el d oper at i ons,

commer ci al f i shi ng, and many ot her human act i vi t i es.

Adver se ef f ect s of weat her on man' s act i vi t i es and theear t h' s r esour ces are ext remel y cost l y, amount i ng t o

bi l l i ons of dol l ar s per year , somet i mes causi ng

i r r eparabl e damage as when human l i ves are l ost i n

severe st orms. Ther e i s, t her ef or e, gr eat mot i vat i on

t o devel op ef f ect i ve count ermeasures agai nst t he

dest r uct i ve ef f ect s of weat her , and, conver sel y, t oenhance t he benef i ci al aspects. The f i nanci al and

ot her benef i t s t o human wel f are of bei ng abl e t o

modi f y weat her t o augment wat er suppl i es, r educe

l i ght ni ng, suppr ess hai l , mt i gat e t or nados, and

i nhi bi t t he f ul l devel opment of hur r i canes woul d be

very great .

Over t he past t went y year s exper i ment s have beenconducted on weat her modi f i cat i on, par t i cul ar l y on t he

ef f ect s of seedi nq cl ouds w t h such mat er i al s as

si l ver i odi de crystal s. The resul t s are l i mt ed.

Under sui t abl e ci r cumst ances i t has been possi bl e toaugment pr eci pi t at i on by t en t o t went y per cent , and t o

r educe t he f r equency of f i r e- produci ng l i ght ni ng

st rokes. Ef f ect s on hai l product i on have been not ed,

somet i mes suppressi on and somet i mes augment at i on.

These r esul t s probabl y woul d be of onl y passi ng i nt erest

wer e i t not f or the pot ent i al i mpor t ance t o manki ndof f ur t her pr ogr ess i n t hi s f i el d. Per haps t he mostsi gni f i cant r esul t of t he exper i ment s t o dat e has been

t o br i ng about a change i n at t i t ude f r omone ofskept i ci 9mt o one of caut i ous opt i msm The l i mt ed

success t o dat e i s encour agi ng, and under scores t he



2

i mpor t ance of pressi ng f orward w t h the necessary researcht o underst and t he dynamcs of weat her syst ems that w l l

have t o be deal t w t h i n any ef f or t s at weat her modi f i ca-t i on.

The gradual l y accumul at i ng evi dence of posi t i ve

resul t s f romef f or t s at weat her modi f i cat i on l ed t he

Commt t ee on At mospheri c Sci ences of t he Nat i onalAcademy of Sci ences, i n November 1963, t o appoi nt a

Panel on Weat her and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on " t o undert akea del i berat e and t hought f ul r evi ew of t he present st at us

and act i vi t i es i n t hi s f i el dq and of i t s pot ent i al and

l i mt at i ons f or the f uture. " The Panel made i t s r epor tat the begi nni ng of t hi s cal endar year (Ref . 1). The

composi t i on of t he NAS Panel i s gi ven i n App. I , t oget herw t h a l i s t of t he Panel ' s recommendat i ons. El abor at i on

and di scussi on of t hese r ecommendat i ons may be f ound

i n Ref . 1.

On J une 16, 1964, t he Di r ect or of t he Nat i onalSci ence Foundat i on announced the appoi ntment of aSpeci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on.

i n i t s r evi ew of t he f i el d, t he Comm ssi on act i vat edseven subgroups t o st udy the physi cal , bi ol ogi cal ,st at i sti cal , soci al , i nt ernat i onal , l egal and l egi s-

l at i ve, and adm ni st r at i on and f undi ng aspect s ofweat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on. The membershi p oft he Commssi on and a l i s t of t he pr i nci pal r ecommen-dat i ons of t he Comm ssi on are at t ached (App. 11) .Fdr t her el aborat i on and di scussi ons of t hose recommendati ons may be f ound i n the Comm ssi on' s r eport and

t he repor t of t he subgr oups (Ref s. 2 and 3).

To assi st

* Fi nal Repor t of t he Panel on Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi -f i cat i on t o the Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences, Nat i onal

Academy of qci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ; "Weat her

and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on, " Vol ume I - Summary and Recommenda-

t i ons, Publ i cat i on No. 1350, 1966, pg vi i



3

Wt h the gr ow ng convi ct i on of posi t i ve and pot en-

t i al resul t s, a number of government agenci es have been

devel opi ng pl ans f or r esearch and ul t i mat el y oper at i onalprograms i n weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on. Some of

t hese pl ans st em f romt he desi r e to use weat her modi f i -cat i on t o meet speci f i c m ssi on responsi bi l i t i es such

as devel opment of wat er r esour ces, prot ect i on of cr ops,pr ot ecti on agai nst f orest f i r es, ecc: Ot her pl ans st em

- m di re= responsi bi l i t y f or f ur t her i ng our under -

st andi ng of weat her and i t s uses. A summary repor t ,"Pr esent and Fut ur e Pl ans of Federal Agenci es i n

Weat her - Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, " dat ed J une 20, 1966, wasprepared f or t he I nt erdepar t ment al Comm t t ee f orAt nospher i c Sci ences (ICAS) by a Sel ect Panel on Weat her

Modi f i cat i on (App. 111). - Whereas t he ICAS Sel ect Panelr epor t r ef l ect ed a desi r abl e vi gor i n pressi ng f orward

i n t hi s i mpor t ant f i el d, never t hel ess, i t r ai sed a

number of quest i ons as t o the soundness and adequacy of

pr oposed pl ans, t he val i di t y of cost est i mat es, t he

avai l sbi l i t y of t rai ned peopl e to meet t he schedul es

pr oposed, over l appi ng of r esearch act i vi t i es, dupl i cat i onof pr oposed f aci l i t i es, r esponsi bi l i t y f or coor di nat i on

and repor t i ng, and responsi bi l i t y f or r egul at i on and

cont rol .

_ _ _ _

To di schar ge i t s responsi bi l i t i es, ICAS must pr ovi de

answer s t o these quest i ons and make appropr i ate r ecommen-

dat i ons. T o t hi s end, t he Chai rman of ICAS, Dr. Her ber tHol l omon, asked me t o revi ew the proposed pl ans and t o

subm t r ecommendat i ons that mght be adopt ed by ICAS f ora r epor t t o Dr . Donal d F. Hor ni g, Di r ector of t he Of f i ce

of Sci ence and Technol ogy, Execut i ve Of f i ce of t he Presi dent .

TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THIS STUDY

The t erns of r ef er ence f or t hi s study are set f or t h

i n t he memorandumf romDr . Hol l omon t o me (App. I V) ,

speci f i cal l y request i ng me t o f ormul at e a Nat i onal Weat her



4

M o d i fi c at io n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e

r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather Modi f ica t ion .

APPROACH

I h a v e t a k e n th e ICAS S e l e c t P an el Repo rt (App. 111)

a s my s t a r t i n g p o i n t , and have u se d t h e NAS P a n e l a nd NSF

S pe ci a l Commission Repor ts (Refs . 1, 2, 3 ) a s s o u rc e s o f

e x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t e

i n s u f f i c i e n t d e pt h i n t o t h e p ro blem s in v o lv e d , I p u t

t o g e t h e r a p a n e l of NASA e x p e r k s , th e c o n s t i t u t i o n ofwhich i s g iv e n i n App. V . W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t h

r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e D ep artm en t of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h eE n vi ro nm e nt al S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E S S A) , t h e

In t e r i o r De p a r tm e n t ' s Burea u of Re c la m a tio n, a nd th e

Nat io na l S c ie nce Founda t ion (NSF), t o h ea r b r i e f i n g s on

program plans and budgets , t o d i s c u s s pr op o se d s c h e d u l e s ,

s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t io n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t o

r e vi e w i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t es t imates .W e r e c e iv e d f ro m th e s e a g e n c ie s a c o n s id e ra b le volum e of

sup por t ing documenta t ion . Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s achronology of P ane l me et in gs , and a l i s t o f m a t e r i a l

rev iewed by the Pane l .

I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above

f o u r ag e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r pro gra ms , a s s e t f o r t h i n

t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a ne l R e p o rt , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of

t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weath er m o d i fi c a t i on a c t i v i t y i n

1970 . Because th e programs of t h e Depar tment of Defense ,

t h e Fe d e ra l Av ia t io n Agency, and t h e Na t io n a l Ae ro n a u t i c s

and Space Ad mi n is t ra t ion w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t of t h e

t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t r eview ed i n d e t a i l .

I n a s s es s in g t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t e s t i m a t e s , I

sough t t o d e te rm in e r e a l i s t i c a n d r e a so n a b le orde r s of

m ag nitud e. P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g

* Hencefo r th the NASA Pa n e l w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o s imply

a s " t h e P a n el ."



5

t h e r e a l i s m of t h e es t imates of manpower resources and

a v a i l a b i l i t y , and t h e i r im pact on p o s s i b l e r a t e s of growth.

I a l s o s o ug ht t o s e p a r a t e t ho se a r e as m e r i t i ng e a r l y

a t t e n t i o n from t h o s e o f a l o n g e r r an ge n a t u r e t h a t c o ul dbe approached m o r e s lowly .

The obs er va ti on s and recommendations co nt ai ne d i n

t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s a r e b a se d on t h e P a n e l re v ie w s

a n d d e l i b e r a t i o n s . It shou ld be emphas ized t h a t t h e

recommendations d e a l w i th t h e major problems, on . the

a s su m p t io n t h a t i f t h e m ajo r problem s a r e r e s o l v e d t h e

r e m a i n i n g p i e c e s c an be f i t t e d i n t o p l a c e .

RECOMMENDED PRINCIPLES

C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which u nd er l i ethe program recommendations. It i s recommended t h a t

these p r i n c i p l e s be a c c e p te d i n the development of th e

National Weather Modif ica t ion Program. It i s i n t e n d e d

t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a pp ly t o a l l a ge nc ie s in vo lv ed i n

w ea th er m o d if ic a t io n a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h os e

whose programs a re d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t ,

The p r i n c i p l e s a r e :

1.

2.

3 .

There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l p ay of f i n d i c a t e d

b y t h e r e s u l t s of p a s t r es e a rc h t o j u s t i f y

c o n t i n u in g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n th e

area of wea the r modi f ica t ion .

The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s av in gs i n l e s se n i ng th e

d e s t r u c t i v e e f f e c t s of weathe r , and the po ten -

t i a l g a i n s i n enhancing th e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s ,

a r e so g r e a t t h a t e x p en d i tu r e s of a p p r e c ia b l e

d o l l a r s on w e at he r m o d i f i ca t i o n r e s e a r c h a nd

a p p l i c a t i o n c a n be j u s t i f i e d .

There i s a need for a s i n g le a ge nc y t o assume

r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t a k in g th e l e a d i n d e v e lo p in g

a wel l -rounded na t i on al program of r e se a rc h o n



6

w e at he r m o d i f i c at i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o

wea the r obs e rv a t io n and wea the r re se a rc h . (Such

a le ad agency would, however , n o t have au th o r i ty

t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n t en t of other agency programs.)

4. It is of v a l u e a n d d e s i r a b l e t o m a i n t a i n m u l t i p l e

a g en c y a p pro ac h t o wea th e r m o d i f i c a t io n r e se a rc h

and a p p l i c a t i o n , w i t h i n d e pe n d en t f u n d i ng f o r

t h e d i f f e r e n t a g en ci es .

5. An a ge nc y th a t h a s a m a jo r m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

r e q u i r in g we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n , f o r e xa mp le ,

augment ing wa te r re sources or m i n i m i z i n g f o r e s t

f i r e s , must be an a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h et o t a l w e at he r m o d i f i c a t i o n pro gram , b u t w i t h

th e a g e n c y ' s m i s s io n fo c u s in g a n d b ro a d ly

d e f i n i n g i t s a c t i v i t y .

6. To a c h ie v e th e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t io n of

w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n t o i t s m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s ,

a m iss io n a g en cy m ust u n d e r s t a n d th e b a s i c

problems, and hence must be i n v o lv e d s i g n i f i -

c a n t l y i n r e l a t e d r e s e a rc h . T hu s, w h i le t h e

a g e n c y ' s m i s s io n sh o u ld fo c u s i t s p a r t i c i p a t i o ni n th e weather m o d i f i c a t io n prog ra m, t h e m i s s i o n

shou ld n o t t o o n a rr ow ly c o n f in e t h a t p a r t i c i p a -

t i o n .

7. The v a r i o u s a g e n ci e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e

weather modif ica t ion program must suppor t each

o t h e r w i t h t h e i r e x pe r ie n ce and c a p a b i l i t i e s .

I n a r ea s where s e v e r a l f e d e r a l a g e nc i es h ave

needs f o r l a b o r a t o r i e s and l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t

use shou ld be made of such f a c i l i t i e s . S i m il a r ly ,e x i s t i n g c om petence s h o u ld , i n g e n e r a l , be used by

o t h e r a g e n c i e s r a t h e r t h a n d u p l i c a t e d . I n

p a r t i c u l a r , t h e c e n t r a l agency h av in g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

f o r fo c u s in g th e n a t i o n a l p rog ram i n t o a p r o p e r l y

b a la n c ed an d i n t e g r a t e d t o t a l must n o t a t t e m p t t o



7

d o e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r ev er yb od y: r a t h e r , it

s h ou ld b u i l d j u d i c i o u sl y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s ,

c a p a b i l i t i e s , a nd 'm is si on r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of

t h e v a r i o u s p a r t i c i p a t i n g a g en c ie s .

8. A formal proced ure must be developed t o a c h i e v e

c o n t i n u in g v i s i b i l i t y and c o o r d i n a ti o n of t h e

t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t io n program.

9: There must be r e g u l a t i o n a n d c o n t r o l of weather

m o d if ic a t io n a c t i v i t i e s , e s p e c i a l l y a s t h o se

a c t i v i t i e s i n cr ea se i n magni tude and f requency

and become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n sc op e. This i s

r e q u i r e d e s p e c i a l l y t o p ro vi de a mechanism f o rp r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t h ar mf ul c on se qu en ce s of

weather m o di fi ca ti on a c t i v i t y b u t a l s e te

p e r m i t v a l i d e x p er i m en t at io n .

OBSERVATIONS

I found t h a t th e b ud ge t f i g u r e s i n t h e I C A S s e l e c t

Pa n e l Re p o r t d i d n o t r e f l e c t t he c u r r e n t s t a t u s of

agency p rogram a n a ly s i s and p lann ing .

of growth i n t h e s e l e c t P a n e l Report w e r e u n r e a l i s t i c a l l yh i g h , i n s o m e cases b y a f a c to r of t w o o r more.

I n d i c a t e d r a t e s



8

A s w e l l as I c o u ld d e t e rm in e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s

a r e c o u n t i n g i n la rg e measure on us in g the same peoplea t v ar io us c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y

out the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a rs t o hav e t h e

k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s o f p e op le r e q u i r e d t o mount a

vigorous program i n we athe r m o d i f i c a t io n r e s e a r c h , b u tt h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t an yt hi ng l i k et h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t he se peo ple

can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n ed from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .

I n g e ne r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y b etw een p r o j e c t e d

manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s an d r e q u i r e m e n t s . Th i s s e r v e s t o

emphas ize t h a t p roposed r a t e s o f p rogram growth a r e

i nd ee d t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a v ig o ro u s e f f o r t s ho ul d

b e made t o i n c r e a se t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l c om peten ce i n t h e

wea the r modi f ica t ion f i e l d .

There a r e a f e w a r e a s of s u f f i c i e n t im m ed ia te p ro m ise

t o warran t moving ahead on ex per im en ta l op e r a t io na l pro-

grams. One i s t h e s e e d in g o f o ro g ra p h ic c lo u d s i n wes te rn

a r e a s t o augment wa te r p r e c i p i t a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s i n g w at er

supply. Another i s t h e s e e d in g of d ry , sh a l lo w s to rm s

i n t h e Rocky Mounta in re g i on s fo r su ppr ess i on of the

k i n d of l i gh t n i n g t h a t c au se s f o r e s t f i r e s . I n o th er

a r e a s it a pp ea rs t o o e a r l y a t t h e p r e s e n t t im e t o un de r-

t a k e o p e r a t i o n a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f w ea th er m o d i f i c a t i o n .

What is needed a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e and fo r the immediatef u t u r e i s a p rogram of re s ea rch , in c l ud ing some f i e l d

programs , d i r ec te d toward unders ta nd ing the p hys ics and

dynamics o f weather systems t o p rov ide a s c i e n t i f i c

b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e x p e ri m e n t a ti o n i n w e at he r m o d i f i c a t i o n .



9

I n g e n e r a l , t h e p ro p os e d program c o n t e n t f o r all

f o u r ag e n c i e s ap p ea r s so u nd , b e i n g b ased on as se s sm en t s of

p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , o r o n a r eco g n i t i o n of t h eneed f o r r e s e a r c h . E xc ep t f o r q u e s t i o n s o f u n d e s i r a b l e

d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t con-

t e n t o f p ro po se d p ro gra ms , b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f

p rogram phas ing , p roposed r a t e s of growth, and t h ev a l i d i t y of d o l l a r es t ima tes .



10

PROGRAM THRUST, ASSESSMENT, AN D RECOMMENDATIONS

Major T hr us t of P roqra m

I t i s recommended t h a t t h e major t h r u s t o f th e

Na t io na l Program i n Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e

immedia te fu tu re be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f u nde r-

s t a n d in g th e p h y s i c s a n d d y n a m ic s of wea the r

s ys te m s t o p r o v i de a sound b a s i s f o r e x pe r im e n ta -

t i o n i n and a p p l i c a t i o n o f w e at he r m o d i fi c a t io n .

T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e prog ram s o f f i e l d e x pe rim e nta -

t i o n t o ex te nd and a p p l y t h e r e s u l t s o f l a b o r a t o r y

a n d t h e o r e t i c a l r e sea rch .

Budqet

1 . I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i -p a t i n g i n t h e weather modif ica t ion p rogram

g i ve e a r l y a t t e n t i o n t o t h e development of

v a l i d b ud ge t f i g u r e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n -

t i o n t o r e a l i s t i c r a t e s of growth , a n d v a l i d

e s t i m a t e s of m a n p o we r a v a i l a b i l i t y .

2 . While I recommend a v igorous Na t iona l Program

of Weather Modif ica t ion , I f e e l t h a t t h e s i z e

p r o j e c t e d f o r F Y 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g m aj or

f a c i l i t i e s , m ight r ea so na bl y be l i t t l e more

t h an h a l f of t h a t g i ve n i n t h e ICAS Select

Panel Repor t .

Because th e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s w e r e u na bl e t o p r o v id e

f i rm b u dg e t e s t i m a t e s , I w a s i n no p o s i t i o n t o d e v e lo p

a d e f i n i t i v e b u d g e t . I have , however , p lo t ted s o m e

t r en d s i n F ig . 2 of App. V I w h i c h q u a n t i t a t e i n a roughway my recommenda tions r e l a t i v e t o th e s p e c i f i c agency

programs. The number3 used w e r e a r r i v e d a t f rom d is -

c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e agenc i es and among our se lv es . The

numbers may w e l l h a v e to be c h a n g e d a f t e r t h e a g e n c i e s

have completed t h e i r a n a l y s e s of a c t u a l r e q u i r e m e n t s :



11

i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my

judgment a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .

D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e P r o q r a m

I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f

a b o u t $600K i n FY 1967' gr ow ing t o $7M i n FY 19 7 0 i s

j u s t i f i a b l e . About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 97 0 f i g u r e i s f o r

f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r ch as e a n d o p e r a t i o n o f s m a l l

a i r c r a f t a n d a much n e e de d r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y .

r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d program

i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1970 f i g u r e

c o u l d be l a r g e r .

I f

T he D e p ar t me n t of A g r i c u l t u r e program, pro jec ted

t h ro ug h FY 1970 , c a n be c o n s i de r e d i n t e r m s cf two n a j c r

ca t eg o r i e s :

1. D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather

2. E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t in g research

T h e s e r e l a t e i n th e main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c

h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, and a s t u d y o f

t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n u pon f a rm a n d f o r e s tc ro p s an d o n l a n d man ag emen t i n g e n e r a l .

The d i r e c t w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f th e

program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n expa nded l i g h t n i n g s u pp r es -

s i o n e f f o r t a nd a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o wa rd h a i l su p -

p r e s s i o n , t h e D ep ar tm en t s t a t e s : " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of

t h e U . S . F o r e s t Serv ice i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e r e sea rch

program a i med a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s

some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

Af i e l d e x p e r im e n t i s t e s t i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f v e r y h e av ys e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e on l i g h t n i n g s to rms . The

r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d -

t o -g r ou n d l i g h t n i n g f ro m s e e de d s t o r m s . A s p e c i a l l y

i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g t h r e e r a d a r s an d a

n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u se d f o r th e



12

cl oud seedi ng exper i ment s and f or st udi es of l i ght ni ngcharacter i st i cs. The t ype of l i ght ni ng di scharge most

l i kel y t o i gni t e f orest f i r es has been i dent i f i ed.Hi gh out put ai rborne and ground based si l ver i odi degenerat or s have been devel oped. Ut i l i zi ng data f romthe exper i mental area and a net work of l i ght ni ng surveyst at i ons, physi cal and mat hemat i cal model s of mount ai n

t hunderst orms are bei ng devel oped. I *

Pr oj ect Skyf i r e i s provi di ng t he basi s f or achi ev-

i ng a si gni f i cant r educt i on i n l i ght ni ng damage i n t hef orest areas of t he west ern Uni t ed St at es, whi ch i s ofappreci abl e benef i t t o t he count ry. The obj ect i ves of

Skyf i re cl ear l y f al l w t hi n t he mssi on responsi bi l i t i esof the U . S . Forest Ser vi ce, whi ch shoul d cont i nue to beresponsi bl e f or t he proj ect.

The present programhas been underway f or overt en years. From the dat a presented t o t he Panel , i t

appears t hat t hi s ef f or t has been under f unded i n r el a-t i on t o i t s pot ent i al val ue to the agency' s m ssi on,

and to t he Nat i on. I r ecommend, and r egard as m ni mal ,t he f ol l ow ng ef f or t proposed by Agr i cul t ure:

1. Expanded l i ght ni ng i nvest i gat i ons at t he

M ssoul a Exper i ment al si t e and at t he Nor t hernForest Fi r e Laboratory.

2. Per f ormance of l arger scal e seedi ng exper i -

ment s i n t wo wel l i nst rument ed experi ment alar eas i n the Nat i onal Forest s of t he Nor t her n

Rocki es. A capabi l i t y shoul d be devel oped,by st r engt heni ng r esearch r esources al ready

avai l abl e, to oper at e these exper i ment alar eas ei t her separat el y or si mul t aneousl y.

* Uni ted St ates Depart ment of Agr i cul t ur e, Summary ofWeather Modi f i cat i on Resear ch Programpresented onJ une 28 , 1966.



13

3 .

4 .

5.

The concent r at i on of r esearch on det er m ni ng

t he seedi ng ef f ect s on l i ght ni ng di scharges

havi ng l ong cont i nued cur rent por t i ons.

Evi dence now avai l abl e i ndi cat es t hat t hese

hybr i d di scharges are of maj or i mpor t ance i n

i gni t i ng f orest f uel s.

Cont i nued research i n t he devel opment of hi gh

out put si l ver i odi de smoke gener at or s and i n

the devel opment of seedi ng syst ems f or use i n

f orest prot ect i on.

Cont i nued research i n t he devel opment of a

l i ght ni ng f i re i ntel l i gence syst emi ncl udi ngst ormt racki ng, di scharge measurement s, and

l i ght ni ng r i sk eval uat i on i n t he fc?rest f i r e

danger r at i ng program

Most of t he Agr i cul t ure budget i s t o suppor t t he

above pr ogr am and i ncl udes al l necessary f aci l i t i essuch as observat i onal net works, operat i on and acqui si -

t i on of r esear ch ai r craf t , cl oud seedi ng equi pment ,

r adar , and a speci al l aborat ory f or l i ght ni ng studi es.

These f aci l i t i es and the i ncreased ef f or t s they suppor tr epresent , i n my opi ni on, real i st i c growt h.

There i s at t he present no subst ant i al Depar t ment

of Agr i cul t ur e ef f or t i n hai l suppressi on. The Depar t -ment st at es: "The Depar t ment of Agr i cul t ure research

program i n hai l suppressi on i s i n an embr yo stage. The

mai n act i vi t y i s prel i mnary pl anni ng of a l ong r ange

r esear ch program I *

The Depar t ment of Agr i cul t ure' s mss i on responsi -bi l i t i es f or cr op prot ect i on were wel l document ed and

def i ned to t he Panel , and are the basi s f or an act i ve

*Uni t ed States Depart ment of Agr i cul t ure, Summary ofWeat her Modi f i cat i on Research Programpresent ed on

J une 28, 1966.



14

i n t e r e s t i n h a i l su p p re s s io n .

w e r e submit ted , however , t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a la rge-s c a l e p rogram a t t h i s t i m e .

a re inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l yh a i l s u p p r e ss i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o s uc h a p p l i c a t i o n s asc r o p p r o t e c ti o n .

N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s

S c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o d a t e

I recommend against th e expans ion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s

h a i l su p p re s s io n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h e

t i m e b e i n g . I recommend t h a t th e Environmental S c ien ce

S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a ti o n , i n c lose c o o p e ra t io n w i t h the

D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take the lead i n t h e d ev el op -

ment and conduct of a program t o u n d e r s t a n d th e bas ic

phys ics o f ha i l -p roduc ing s to rms , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o nmechanisms. I recommend t h a t , as t h e n ec es sa ry s c i e n t i f i c

r a t i o n a l e i s developed, t h e Depar tment of A g r i c u l t u r e t aket h e l e ad i n c o n du ct in g large-scale f i e l d e x p e r im e n t s i n

h a i l su pp re ss io n, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e w es te rn p l a i n s areaw h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t severe . Shou ld

t h i s become a c h ie v a b le i n t h e 1970 t i m e pe r i od , th e t o t a lDepartment of A g r i c u l t u r e w e a th er m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o r

FY 1970 would have t o be l a rger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e de a r l i e r.

The e c o l o g i c a l and s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n of

t h e program includes three areas : b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e s

t o weathe r m od i f ic a t i on , boundary - laye r ene rgy exchange ,

a n d rem ote s e n s in g i n su p p o r t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .A t p r e s e n t , there i s l i t t l e w o r k under way i n t h e f i r s t

a r e a , and o n l y modest, e a r l y e f f o r t s e x i s t i n t h e l a s tt w o .

I f e e l t h a t A g r i c u l t u r e ' s e x p e r i en c e a nd i n- ho us ec a p a b i l i t i e s i n su ch areas a s eco logy , boundary - laye r

energy exchange, and bas ic research i n s u pp o rt of t h e i re x c e l l e n t l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n p rogram r e q u i r e augm enta-

t i o n . T h e s e e f f o r t s a re p e r t i n e n t t o a program of weatherm o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h a n d a p p l i c a t i o n , a n d a re otherwisep a r t of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e m i s si o n. I n some r e g a r d s , however,

I do have concern . F i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o changes



15

i n s p e c i e s b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u gh weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r

e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e cons i de rab l e u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o

t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . It i s v e r yi m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f ore , t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y

b a s e l i n e d a t a f o r l a t e r c o m p ar i so n s a n d a n a l y s e s .

S i m i l a r l y , a prog ra m i n b ou nd ar y l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d

t h r o u g h w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n m ust d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s

of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e -a n d- e f f e c t r e l a t i o n -

s h i p .

I c o nc l ud e t h a t th e b u d g e t s u b m i s s i on b y A g r i c u l -

t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a nd s u p p o r t i n g research

p o r t i o n s of the program i s i n e x c e s s of th e presen tc a p a b i l i t y .

these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a nd s h o u l d be

s u p p o r t e d .

N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n

D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r Proqram

I recommend a D ep ar tm en t of I n t e r i o r b ud g e t f o r

w ea th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967

g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 97 0, i n c l u d i n g n e ed e d

f a c i l i t i e s an d o p e r a t i o n . The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s

p r o g r am i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u gm e nt a ti on .

The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b ee n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l

w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a nd t h u s a n

e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a nd u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e rr e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e

n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t .

The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c

Water R e s o u r c e s P r o g r a m has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i -

c a l a n d econ om ic f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g th e w a t e rs u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e cl am a t i on p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h

w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w

s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p ro gra m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d

t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goa l of t h e " e f f ec t i ve ,



16

b e n ef i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s a tm o sp he ri c

w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . ' I *

T h e program t o g a t e h a s i nc l ud e d, a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,c l o u d - s e e d i n g e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g th e a c q u i s i -

t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l th e e x p e r im e n ta l a r eas , and

c l ima to logy .

I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number of

f i e l d e x p er im e nt s i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a tt h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t ud y of capclo ud s ha s produced amounts of w a t e r which appear to

o f f e r promise o f economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s

Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u dp h ys i cs t o a c t u a l m o d if i c a ti o n o p e r a t i o n s , and i n c l u d e s

t h e d ev elop me nt of i n s t ru m e n ta t io n a n d d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n

sys tems.

The Southe rn S i e r r a p ro gram h a s s t u d ie d t h e e f f e c -

t i v e n e s s o f c l o u d s e e d in g i n t h a t s p ec i a l i ze d a r e a .The P a c i f i c Nor thwest p rogram has inc luded exper imen ts

on s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from a r e a s of s u r p l u s t oa r e a s o f d e f i c i t .

I n Washington and Oregon th e windward slopes of

c o a s t a l m ou ntains r e c e iv e l a r g e amounts of p r e c i p i t a -

t i o n , t h e run -o ff o f w h i c h r e t u r n s t o t h e ocean unused.

F a r t h e r i n la n d , t h e r e a r e a r e a s where t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n

i s l e s s t h a n on e t e n t h a s g r e a t . I f it w e r e p o s s i b l e

t o s h i f t some of t h e l o s t p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e economic

b e n e f i t wo u ld be g r e a t .

The r e s e a r c h p rogram s u b m i tt e d b y I n t e r i o r t o ICAS

r e f l e c t s q u i t e w e l l a l l a r e a s o f s tu d y t h a t w i l l be

r e q u i r e d t o s u p po r t pr op os ed i n t e n s i v e f i e l d e x pe r im e n ts

* Plan s fo r t h e Dep artm ent o f I n t e r i o r ' s A tm o sp he ri c

Water Resources Program, pr es en te d t o ICAS on May 1 3 ,

1966.



17

i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n s u c h as those ment ioned

above. I conc lude tha t the p rogram i s so u n d ly b a se d ,

is b e i n g c o m pe t en t ly c a r r i e d o u t , i s of b e n e f i t t o t h e

coun t ry , and shou ld be c o n t in u e d . I f e e l t h a t t h e

p r o p o s e d r a t e s of g ro wth e xc ee d I n t e r i o r ' s in -h ou se

and p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a c t o r c a p a b i l i t y and I recommend t h e

l o w e r r a t e of growth for t h i s r e s e a r c h area cor respond-

i n g t o t h e b u dg e t f i g u r e s g iv e n above.

The s u p p o r t i n g b ud g et m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h e

P a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establ ishment of f i e l d l a b o ra t o ri e s

w hich w ould i n c l u d e t h e f o l lo w i n g n e c e ss a r y f a c i l i t i e s :

r a d a r and raw in so nd e i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n

s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o ps , a i r p o r t s , t em po ra ry h ou si ng ,

e t c . I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t of a n e x t e n s iv e

~ets-mrk f such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y

and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished with in t h e Depar t -

ment of I n t e r i o r ' s mi ss io n. I est imate t h a t n o t more t h a n

t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w ith t h e apparen t po ten -

t i a l i t i e s o f t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r th rough t h e

F Y 1 9 7 0 t i m e per iod . The c o s t pe r f i e l d s i t e a s deduced

f ro m th e m a te r i a l p ro v id e d b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p ro x im a te ly

2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g s uch e qu ip me nt i t e m s a s

we a th e r r a d a r , r a w in so n d e s , t e l e m e t ry s e t s , t r a c e rd i s p e n s e r s , a n d a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g in e a i r -c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d s i t e s . This equipment i s

r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e p ro po se d s i t e implementa t ion s e t

f o r t h i n t h e m a t e r i a l s u p p l i e d b y I n t e r i o r .

I recommend t h a t I n t e r io r c o l l a b o ra t e w i t h ESSA i n

a cc om pl is hi ng I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augment ing pr ec ip i t a -

t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t he a s t er n s e c t o r o f the c o u n t ry .

I b e l ie v e t h a t t h e r e a re s i g n i f i c a n t a d va nt ag es t o

I n t e r i o r ' s d ev el op in g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d ag ree men tw i t h ESSA t o a cc om plis h t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Such

an arrangem ent would sp read th e base of the government ' s

e x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . It would permit ESSA t o

i n t e g r a t e t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n a c t i v i t y w i t h

a b ro ade r p rogram of re se a r ch on t h e p h y s i c s a nd



18

dynamics of weather mo di f i c a t io n and wi t h wea ther

r e s e a r c h i n g en e r a l . A l so , it would p r o v id e I n t e r i o r

w i t h v a l u a b l e a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s i m p o r t an t w a t e r 'resources program. I f such a c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h ESSA

i s a r r an g ed , E S S A ' s a s s i s t a n c e may p e r m i t a c c e l e r a t i o n

of the p r e c i p i t a t i o n au gm en ta ti o n p ro gram, which i n

t u r n would r e q u i r e e a r l i e r i n c re a s e s i n t h e I n t e r i o rbudget t h a n a r e i n d i c a t ed i n the curve of App. V I .

The c o ll a b o ra t i o n recommended above i s one example

of how t w o ag en c i e s may p r o f i t a b l y work t o g e t h e r t oa ch ie ve t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e g o a ls . It may be e x p e c t e d t h a t

many s u c h o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l a r i s e i n t h e w e a t h e r

m o d i f i ca t i o n p ro gram, and f u l l ad van t ag e sh o u ld be t ak en

of thos e op po r tu ni t i es . The development and o p e r a t i o n o f

a l a r g e - s c a l e weather s im u la t i on f a c i l i t y w i l l b e n e f i t

f r o m m u l t i ag en cy co l l ab o r a t i o n i n i t s des ign and u s e .

Although I recommend below t h a t ESSA be the pr ime mover

i n th e a r e a of s e v e r e s t o r m m o d i f i c a t i o n , it i s r eco g n i zed

t h a t I n t e r i o r and A g r i c u l t u r e h av e a n u l t im a te i n t e r e s t

here, and one can fo resee t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of c o l l a b o r a t i v e

e f f o r t s among ESSA, I n t e r i o r , and A g ri c ul tu r e.

Like t h e Depar tment of Agr icul ture , t h e Department ofI n t e r i o r h a s an i n t e r e s t i n and concern w i t h t h e e c o l o g i c a l

e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I n plann ing f o r p rograms

i n a tm o s ph e ri c w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e Depa rtm en t i s i n c l u d -

i n g p r o v is i o n f o r a p p r o p r ia t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a .

E S S A Proqram

I recommend a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o r ESSA

of abou t $1.5M i n F Y 1967, r i s i n g t o a b ou t $25M i n

FY 1970. I s u p p o r t t h e pro gram c o n t e n t , b u t q u e s t i o nt h e p r o p osed r a t e of growth t o $20M i n F Y 1968. While

ESSA d e m on s tr at e d t h e n e c e s s a r y d i v e r s i t y of in-houset a l e n t , I a m u n ab le t o j ud g e wh et he r ESSA i s a b l e t o

r e a s s i g n a l l t h e need ed p e r so n n e l f ro m o t h e r a r e a s t o

t h e w ea th er m o d i f ic a t io n e f f o r t .



19

The proposed E S S A program i s a broad r esearch and

devel opment ef f or t of si gni f i cant magni t ude and content .

I t cover s t he many areas t hat must be underst ood t o

at t ack and sol ve t he probl em of at t ai ni ng benef i ci alweat her cont rol . The f ol l ow ng t echni cal ar eas, f rom

a l i st provi ded by ESSA, i l l ust rat e t he breadt h of t he

proposed ef f or t : cl oud physi cs; atmospher i c el ect r i ci t y;

st at i st i cal desi gn and eval uat i on; hur r i cane st ructure

and modi f i cat i on; severe l ocal st or mst r uct ur e; at mos-

pher i c cont am nat i on; i nadver tent modi f i cat i on; comput er

model i ng; gl obal cl oud anal ysi s, pr i mar i l y sat el l i t e

work; drought and cl i mat i c var i at i ons: at mosphere

r adi at i on and heat bal ance; sea/ ai r i nt er act i on;

t r anspor t and di f f usi on pl ume t r aci ng; speci al i zedi nst r ument devel opment : hydromet eorol ogy; soci o-

economcs ; and ecol ogy.

I bel i eve that a broad research and devel opment

ef f or t of t he general cont ent of t he proposed E S S A

program i s essent i al t o a si gni f i cant nat i onal weat her

modi f i cat i on ef f or t . I r ecommend t hat E S S A have t he

r esponsi bi l i t y f or t he research and devel opment t hat

i s essent i al t o a vi abl e nat i onal weat her modi f i cat i on

pr ogr am suppl ement i ng and i nt egrat i ng t he researchpr ogr ams of t he mssi on- or i ented agenci es. But , Ir ecommend t hat E S S A not dupl i cate the programs of the

m ssi on- or i ent ed agenci es di scussed above, and the

basi c r esearch programs of NSF di scussed bel ow Ist r ongl y suppor t t he E S S A mssi on responsi bi l i t y i n

ar eas such as severe stormsuppr essi on, hur r i cane

modi f i cat i on, and l arge- scal e l ong- range at mospher i c

model i ng.

The f ol l ow ng areas are consi dered essent i al f orest abl i shi ng t he broad base of r esear ch necessary f or

t he nat i onal weat her modi f i cat i on ef f or t .

t i ons gi ven bel ow were ext racted f r omt he mat er i al

pr ovi ded by E S S A . The recommended f undi ng permt s

i ncl usi on of t hese act i vi t i es i n t he E S S A program

The descr i p-



20

1. Mo d i f i c a t io n of Winte r Lake Storms: These

s torms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n t i n e n t a l

c o l d a i r b l o w s a c r o s s th e u n f r o ze n l a k e s , p i c k i n g up

mo is tu re f rom t h e warm wa ter su rfa ce . The l o c a lc h a r a c t e r of t h e s torm would pe rm it over-se eding and

r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of th e p r e c i p i t a t i o n .

' 2. M o d i fi c at io n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n

at tempt would be made t o s ee d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c lo u d s

w i t h c on d e ns a ti o n n u c l e i i n o r d e r t o i n c re a se t h e i r

c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p re ve nt r a i n . T hi s a c t i v i t y

may en te r a sem i-opera t iona l s t a t e d u r i n g F Y 1972.

3 . A q I Dif fu s io n : T h i s p r o j e c t s u p p l e m e n t s the

r e se a rc h u n d e r i t e m 1 above. It i s b e l i e v ed t h a t t h e

v e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI c an be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n te r

i n t h e G r e at Lakes Region dur in g pre sen ce of ex tended

su p e rc o o le d c lo u d l a y e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e ra t e d i n

g r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r f a c e . The a n a l y s i s of

i t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o ud de ck w i l l be done by radar .

4. Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t

Storm Fury. It i n v o lv e s the con t in ued s t ud y of cumulus

dynamics by means of the re lease of hea t of fus ion

th ro ug h s e e d in g w i th p y ro t e c h n ic s . A two-year cy cl e ofr an do mize d f i e l d e x p e r im e n ta t io n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e

Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , wh ic h p e rm i t s s tu d y o f b o th

m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o ud s .

5. H a i l Suppress ion : Se ver a l approaches a re

contempla ted: ( a ) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s tu dy h a i l s to n e

s t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d th e h a i l s t o n e

o r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t o

a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f m o th er cl ou d and

a n v i l i n t h e h a i l p ro c e s s , a n d ( c ) r a d a r s t u d i e s t oa n a ly z e fu r t h e r t h e "a na tom y" of t h e h a i l s t o r m .

A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;

Bou lde r, Co lorado : and F l a g s t a f f , Ar izona.



2 1

6. I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a ti o n : I n a d v e r t e n t m o d i fi c a-

t i o n of th e wea the r occu rs because o f po l l u t i o n of t h e

atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l g as eo us and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u -e n t s , and c ha ng es i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r a nd a l b e d o d ue t c ?

a g r i c u l t u r e a nd c o n s t r u c t i o n . The e f f e c t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n

become ap pa re nt i n three a r e a s :

o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which a re s t u d i e d i n t h i s

program.

a t mospher i c chemi s t ry ,

(a ) Benchmark Proqram: The c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f

a tm o s ph e ri c c o n s t i t u e n t s , n a t u r a l l y and a r t i f i c i a l l y

g e n e r a t e d , w i l l be measured a t va r i ous l oca t i on s . The

Mauna L o a O b s e r v a t o r y an d t h e B ou ld er s t a t i o n s w i l lt ak e p a r t i n t h e f u l l program . O th e r s t a t i o n s may be

s e l ec t ed i n t h e Eas t e rn U . S . and i n t h e n o r t h e r n and

southern hemispheres .

mon i t o r i ng 0 3 and C02 conten t s . The f i r s t phase w i l l

co n ce r n i t s e l f with the development of a CO2 moni t o r i ng

method. Even t ua l l y , t he concen t ra t i ons of su l ph a t e s ,

n i t r a t e s , c h l o r i d e s , and b i o l o g i c a l c o n t a m i n a n t s w i l l

a l s o be moni tored.

The program w i l l b e g i n by

(b) Albedo, t u r b i d i t y , r a d i a t i o n , a e r o s o l s :It i s p la n ne d t o s t a r t on a sys t ema t i c r e sea rch p rog ram

t o s t u d y t h e s e p ar am e te rs .

(c ) A t m o s p h e r i c e l e c t r i c parameters: It i s

p la nn ed t o s t u d y t h e e l e c t r i c a l p ar am ete rs ( p o t e n t i a l

g r a d i e n t , c o n d u c t i v i t y , a i r - e a r t h c u r r e n t ) of t h e un-

d i s t u r b e d weather us i ng rad i osondes a l ready deve l oped .

These pa ram ete rs may prove t o be a powerful t o o l f o r

m o ni to ri ng n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l a i r p o l l u t i o n .

7. Study of Rain and Snow P r e c ip i t a t i o n : The

impor tance of t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n

p a r t i c l e s f o r e f f e c t i v e r a i n ou t must be s t u d i e d . It

i s p l an n e d t o c on d uc t f i e l d e x pe ri me n ts u s in g r a d a r , a nd

r a i n d r o p s p e c tr o m e te r s , and t o d ev elo p t h e o r e t i c a l

p r e c i p i t a t i o n m odels.

Research under t h i s p r o j ec t w i 11 p r o b ab l y r e q u i r e

many years.



2 2

8. L a b o r a t o r y S t u d i e s : A number of in-house s t u d i e s

a re planned:

( a ) C o n s t r u c t i o n o f a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s tu d y

of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o to r n a d ic s to rm s.

(b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned

t o l ea rn more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o di d e a s a

f r e e z i n g o r a s a sub l i ma t i on nuc l eus , and abou t i t s

a g in g u nd er i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e su n.

s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s o t h e r n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , s uc h a s l e a d

o x i d e , w i l l be i nv es t i g a t e d . Th i s may lead t o t h e d is co v er y

of l e ss expens i ve ma t e r i a l s w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u iv a le n tt o A g I, and u s a b l e i n p y r o te c h n ic d i s p e n s e r s .

I n a d d i t i o n t o these

9. Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of the

w a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms.E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , a nd b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e rs to rage o c cu r s i n s u c h storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e c h a n c e s

of r a i n a ug m en ta ti on e x i s t .

however are mi ss i ng . The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c ti v e

s torms.

a n a n a l y s i s e x i s t (by Bra ha m) , w h i l e th e w a t e r b u d g e to f h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s of

t h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o t hese storms gave values of more

tha n 100 cu bic k i l o m e t e r s i n one minute .

Analyses by Bradbury ,

S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s

O nly f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s t hunde rs t o rms does

P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d ap pro ac h. I n t h e

i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d

u s i n g a n e t w o r k o f e x i s t i n g U . S . wea t he r i n s t rumen t s .

T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d es ig ne d t o f u r n i s h th e i n f l u x of

vapor ac ross t h e s h o r e s o f th e Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n

w ea th er s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e G ulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o ri n s ta n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i od of the summer monsoon

which i s s o imp or tan t t o Ar izona . The second phase

c a l l s f o r a m e te o ro l og ic a n a l y t i c s t u dy of t h e w a t e rbudget of s t o r m s , s up ple me nte d b y a i r c r a f t a nd r a d i o s o nd e

n e t w o r k d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .



23

10. Fai r weather Cumul us St udi es: There has been

consi derabl e progress i n comput er model i ng of cumul us

convect i on. Fur t her pr ogr ess requi res t he i nput ofdata measured i nsi de cumul us cl ouds. I t i s i nt ended t o

i ni t i at e a program of i n- cl oud measurement s usi ng novel

i nst r ument at i on, Temperature w l l be measured usi ng

r emot e I R t echni ques f r omt he penet rat i ng ai r craf t : ot her

par amet er s, e.g. updraf t and l i qui d cont ent , w l l be

measur ed as i nst rument at i on i s devel oped.

11. At mospher i c Chemst ry: Thi s proj ect i s geared

t o the appl i cat i on of chemcal anal ysi s met hods t o at mos-

pher i c physi cs. I t i s i nt ended to measure, r ecord, andanal yze the chem cal const i t uent s of cl ouds, r ai n, and

ot her preci pi t at i on. I on conduct i vi t y, pH val ue, and i oni dent i t y, are some of t he paramet ers whi ch w l l be recor ded

at mount ai n stat i ons as wel l as on ai rcraf t .

12. I nst r ument Devel opment : I nst rument s must be

devel oped to per f orm over t he whol e range of at mospher i cpar amet er s f or use i n ai r craf t as wel l as on t he ground.

Ot her equal l y i mpor t ant areas of i nvest i gat i on w l l

ar i se as the ent i re program get s movi ng. I bel i eve t hat

pr oj ect s i n t he above areas of basi c research can now

be i mpl ement ed and are w t hi n the t echni cal capabi l i t y

of ESSA.

An i mport ant recommendat i on of t he Nat i onal Academy

of Sci ences was "t he ear l y est abl i shment of sever al car e-

f ul l y desi gned, r andom zed, seedi ng exper i ment s, pl annedi n such a way as t o per m t assessment of t he seedabi l i t y

of a var i et y of st ormt ypes. "* One of t hese shoul d be i nt he east er n sector of t he U . S . A s noted above under t he

*Fi nal Repor t of the Panel on Weat her and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on t o the Commt t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences,Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ;

"Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, Probl ems and Prospect s,

vol ume I - SUI mary and Recommendat i ons, Publ i cat i on No. 13508

1966, pg 23.



24

s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I p ro po se t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e

w i t h ESSA on a l a rg e - sc a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n

a ug m en ta ti on i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n

keep ing wi th th e c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o rh a s m is si on r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n wate r re sources enhancement

wh i l e E S S A shou ld conduc t a b road p rogram of exp lo ra to ry

r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r

we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n . A v e r y i m p o rt a n t r e as o n t h a t E S S A

under take t h i s work w ith I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of

u n d e r s t a n d in g i s so t h a t E S S A may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y

w i t h t h e i r b r o a d er program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s a nd

dynamics of weather,

The ESSA o n g o i n g e f f o r t s i n se v e re s to rm s andh u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h , a nd th e development and use of the

Norman, O k l a h o m a , f a c i l i t y , sh ou ld be augmented a t a b o u t

t h e r a t e proposed by ESSA.

The Na t io n a l Se v e re S torm s La b o ra to ry (NSSL) h a s ac om pr eh en siv e o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y u se d t o d e f i n e

b e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h e

l o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s w h i c h a re th e s to rm, and t h e a s s o c i a t e d

budge ts of w a t e r subs ta nce and energy , Dur ing t h e

o b s e r v a t i o n a l per iod Apri l -June 1966, t h i s i n c lu d e dc a l i b r a t e d Do pp le r an d c o n v e n t io n a l r a d a r s , n etworks o f

56 su r face weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o -

sonde s t a t i o n s pr ov id ed b y t h e U. S. A i r Force and the

U. S. Army, and a 1600- foo t in s t rum ented t e l e v i s i o n

tower , c loud cameras, and s e v e r a l i n st ru m e nt ed a i r c r a f t

of ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g s ys te m i s under

developm en t a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energy

of storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h to rnado development

and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e ve a le d b y r ad a r .

E S S A f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e

storms can be o b ta in e d b y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f th e obse rva -

t i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s

c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s io n ,



25

I n a d d i t io n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i es and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,

some i m p or t an t p r e s e n t a nd p la nn ed e f f o r t s a r e :

Round-the-clock ra da r su rv e i l l a nc e and

d a t a rec ord ing . Th is should pro vid e means

f o r de t e rmi n i ng a s so c i a t i on s among seve res t o rm occur rences and topography, t i m e of

day , season , and synop t i c me t eo ro l og i ca l

pa rame t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of con-

t r o l d a t a f o r th e be t t e r e v a l u a t i o n o f

a t t e m p t s b y NSSL a nd o th e r a g e n c i e s t o

.modify Oklahoma storms.

Continued development of computer programs

fo r proc ess i n g t h e voluminous radar and mesonet-

work d a t a .

I n s t a l l a t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork surface

s t a t i o n s b etw ee n e x i s t i n g o n es now loca ted 10

t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s a reneeded t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e sca les of motion

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f severe s t o r m s .

Cons t ruc t i on o f a l0cm-Doppler r ad a r f o r

im proved v e l o c i t y m ea su rin g c a p a b i l i t y a t

l onge r r ange .

Development of improved means f o r d i r e c t d i g i t a l

record ing and process ing of convent iona l and

Dopp l e r r ada r da t a .

S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N at io na l Hurr i c ane Research Labora-

t o r y , M i a m i , Fl o r i d a , and coope ra t i ng g roups a re s t udy i ngt h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s env ironmen t, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l

c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t

t h e development of one. The f o ll o w in g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d

b y ESSA g i v es t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e hu r r ic a n e research

program.



W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of am a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n g r e a t d e t a i l and c a n even

es t imate p ro ba bl e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e s t r u c t u r ew i t h t i m e i n th e same h u r r i c a n e or between

h u r r i c a n e s . O u r knowledge of t h e s t r u c t u r e

of d e ve l op i ng and d i s s i p a t i n g t r o p i c a l

c y c lo n e s i s less c o m p le te , b u t e ve n i n

t hese c a s e s many d a t a h a ve b ee n c o l l e c t e d

and analyzed .

G r e a t advances have been made i n r e c e n t

y e a r s i n dev elop ing mathe mat ica l models of

h u r r i c a n e s . The most advanced of these

models i s now b e i n g u s ed f o r p a r t i a l l y

e v a l u a t i n g s i m p l e m o d i f i c a t i o n h y p o t h e s e s .

I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o gr es s t h a t ha s been

made i n h u r r i c an e r e s e a rc h i n r e c e n t y e a r s ,

much nee ds t o be done b e f o r e w e can (1) g a i n

an adequate unders tanding of many d e t a i l s oft h e e n er g y p r o c e ss e s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s -

f a c t o r i l y e x p la i n o r p r e d i c t t h e f or ma ti onand i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f t r o p i c a l c yc lo ne s, o r

( 3 ) d e v e lo p r e a l i s t i c and accura te dynamica lnum er ica l mode ls of h u r r i c a n e s .

When w e c a n s im u la t e a h u r r i c a n e w i t h a good

numerical model w e w i l l have accomplished a

m ajor b re ak th ro ug h i n t h e e f f o r t s t o f i n d at e c h n iq u e f o r m od i fy ing these s to rms . Two

of th e ma jo r d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e h u r r ic a n e

models c u r r e n t l y b e in g t e s t e d are t h e

m a th e m a t i c a l f o rm u la t io n s b o th fo r th e

f r i c t i o n l ay e r an d f o r the t r a n s f e r ofe n e rg y be tween t h e e a r t h and th e atmosphere

a n d t h ro ug h th e l ower l a y e r s of t h e atmos-

phere .

of these p r o c e s s e s i s g re a t ly im p ro v e d , it

i s d o u b t f u l i f w e w i l l be a b l e t o s im u la te

a h u r r i c a n e w i t h a t r u l y s a t i s f a c t o r y

numerical model.

U n t i l our knowledge and und ers t and ing



We would have a b e t t e r chance of deve l op i ng

good mathemat ica l formula t ions for the

h u r r ic a n e f r i c t i o n l ay er and f o r t h e t r a n s f e rof energy i f w e had t h e r i g h t k i n d of d a t a

f o r t e s t i n g t h e f o r m ul a ti o ns t h a t a r e pr op os ed ,

We need t o know th e r a t e and means of th e

t r a n s f e r of momentum, se ns ib le h e a t , and water

vapor wi th i t s l a t e n t h e a t. We s h ou ld be a b l e

t o d et er m in e t h e s e t h i n g s i f we had good

measurements of t h e ve r t i c a l and ho r i z on t a l

wind components , tempe rature , and hum idi ty a ta number of l e v e l s from sea l e ve l up th rough

t h e f i r s t few thousand f e e t of a tmosphere .These da ta a r e needed f o r t h e t u r b u l e n t a s w e l l

a s th e l a r g e r s c a l e s of motion.

E f f o r t s t o a c q ui re a be t t e r unders tanding of

t h e g e n e s i s p r o c e s s , and t o d ev e lo p t e c h n i q u e s

f o r p r e d i c t i n g h u r r i c a n e f or m at io n and f u r t h e r

i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n a r e l ik e w is e ha nd ic ap pe d b y

l ack o f da t a . Th i s i s due t o t he f a c t t h a t

t h e f av o re d g e n e s is a r e a s a r e o u t s i d e t h e

co nv en tio na l d a ta networks, Some of the needed

d a t a c an b e o b t a i n e d by r e s e a r c h a i r c r a f t .

C o l l e c t i o n of t h e s e d a t a c o u ld b e g r e a t l y

acc e l e ra t e d , however, w it h more a i r c r a f t o f

g r ea t e r r ange . The improved weat he r s a t e l l i t e s

a r e a l r e a d y h e l pi n g t h i s d a t a c o l l e c t io n e f f o r t

and t h e s yn ch ro no us s a t e l l i t e s h o ul d b e o f

g r e a t a s s i s t a n c e .

exper iment and the improved da ta co l l ec t ion

e f f o r t s proposed f o r the World Weather Watch

w i l l a l s o be u s e f u l .

I t i s hoped t h a t t h e t r o p i c a l

Along w i t h t h e in cr ea se d e f f o r t s a t s p e c ia l iz e d

c o l l e c t i o n , t h e r e sh ould b e more t h e o r e t i c a l

i n v e s t i g a t i o n s .

t h e s t u d y of t h e h u r r i c a n e b u t a l s o t h e o t h e r

c i r c u l a t i o n s i n t h e t r o p i c s . It i s u n l i k e l y t h a t

w e w i l l e v e r f u l l y u nd er sta nd t h e h u r r i c a n e

u n t i l we have a b e t t e r unde rstand ing of i t s

environment .

These should include n o t on l y



28

A s a n o te o f c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s ho ul d be made

on the complex i ty of t h e p roposed res ea r ch . A s i l l u s t r a t e d

b y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t s t o r m F u ry , t h e p ro b a-b i l i t y o f a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n purp0se.c

a t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e s t o r m s e v e r y t w o

y e ar s. I nd ee d, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s have y e t t o a c q u i r e t h c

f i r s t such s to rm w e l l i n t o t h e s ec on d y e a r of o p e r a t i o n .For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p en s iv e

f a c i l i t i e s such a s f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t a re r e q u i r e d

on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s , w i t h t h e u n d er st an d in g t h a t n a t u r a l

v a ri an c e i n t h e d e s i r e d w ea th er p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s a

p r e d i c t i o n of how l ong such re se ar ch must be c o n t in u e d

b e f or e m e a ni ng fu l r e s u l t s c an be expected.

I recommend t h a t t h e p r o po se d e f f o r t by ESSA i n t h e

a r e a s of s e v e r e s t or m a nd h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h be su p p o r t e d

and p u r s u e d v ig o ro u s ly .

N S F Proqram

I recommend an in c re a se i n t h e Na t io n a l Sc i e n c e

Foundation ( N S F ) we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n b u d g e t t o a b o u t $ 5 M

i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n F Y 1970. The F Y 1 9 7 0 f ig u rei n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e s im u la -

t i o n f a c i l i t y f o r bas i c r e s e a r c h i n c l ou d p h y si c s t o be

erected a nd o p e ra t e d b y t h e Na t io n a l Ce n te r f o r A tm osph er ic

Research J N C A R ) , I f p la nn in g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,

some of t h e $10M migh t be needed e a r l i e r t h a n F Y 1970.

The Na t io n a l Sc i e n c e Fo u n da t io n p ro p o se s t o i n c r e a se

t h e su p p o r t o f b a s i c and c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h

which i s a p p ro p r i a t e a nd fu nd a m e nta l t o a n y p ro gram o f

w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t io n . Th e N S F program should be d i r e c t e dtow ard t h r e e i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s : (1) t h e e s ta b l is h m e n t

o f a sound s c i e n t i f i c f o u nd a t io n f o r an i n t e n s i f i e d prog ram

o f we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n , (2 ) t h e s u b s t a n t i a l i n v o l v e m e n t of

u n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h i s area o f r e s e a r c h , a n d ( 3 ) t h e p ro d u c -

t i o n o f s u b s t a n t i a l numbers o f new h i g h l y t r a i n e d p e o p l e f o r

t h i s work. N S F d oe s n o t p l a n t o a nd " w i l l n o t d u p l i c a t e



29

research performed by miss io n age nc ies , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t

r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d is c i p li n e areas which w i l lsu pp le m e nt o r e x t e n d o th e r we a th er m o d i f i c a t io n r e s e a rc h

already underway and w i l l d ev el op t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o ur c e s

of knowledge and manpower i n new and im ag in at iv e a re as ." "

The N S F re sea rch p rogram t o be c o n d u c te d p r im a r i ly

a t u n i v e r s i t i e s a nd NCAR w i l l i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g areasof r esea rch :

1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t in u e d

on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r

growth o r decay produced by th e re lease o r a b so rp t io n o f

t h e h e a t of con dens at io n and he at of fus ion which may be

produced o r i n d u c e d b y n a tu ra l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t im ulu s .These s t u L i e s w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l o b s e r v a -

t i o n s of c l ou d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l e nv ir on me nt, i n s i m c l a -

t i o n chambers i n th e l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l m odels

us ing h igh speed compute rs .

2. Ice Format ion i n Clouds: The r o l e of t h e

fo rm a t io n of ic e i n c lo ud s i n p ro d u c in g r a in d ro p fo rm a t io n

w i l l be i n t e n s i v e l y st ud ie d. The mechanism whereby

a t m os p he r ic n u c l e i , b o t h n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , become

e f f e c t i v e i n f r e e z i n g s u p e r c o o l e d d r o p l e t s w i l l be f u r t h e rs t u d i e d , a n d th e importance of t h i s p r o c es s i n c o m p e ti t io n

w i t h coa lescence and sub l ima t ion w i l l be assessed . The

means whereby i c e c r y s t a l s grow t o h a i l s to n e s i z e i n

se v e re s to rm s w i l l a l s o r ec e i ve a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y as

it r e l a t e s t o p o s s ib l e c o n t ro l m echanisms.

3 . Coalescence: The p ro c e s s wh e re b y c lo u d p a r t i c l e s

combine t o f o r m r a i n d r o p s i n w a r m c lo u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d .

T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p ro ce ss t o t h e q u a n t i t y a nd

e f f e c t i v e n e s s of n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l l y in tro du ce dc o n d e n s a t i o n n u c l e i w i l l be obse rved us ing a i rborne

* " C r i t i q u e b y Presen te r" e n c lo su re t o June 28 , 1966, N S F

l e t t e r t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l s i g n e d b y P.H. Wyckoff, Program

D i r e c t o r f o r Weather Modif ica t ion .



30

i n s t ru m e n t a t io n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c lo ud chambers o r c lo u d

t u n n e l s i n t h e l a bo r a t o ry , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l c o ns i d e r a t i o n s

u s in g m a th e m a ti c a l models. T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l

f o r c e s t o c o a le sc e n c e p ro c e s se s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .

4. C l o u d E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of charge

g e n e r a ti o n i n c l o ud s w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c lo u ds

c o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r su p e rc o o le d w a t e r o r i ce . T h e e f f e c t

o f f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on th e o r i e n t a t i o n a n d

l o c a t i o n of c h ar g e c e n t e r s w i l l be o b se rve d . The e f f e c t

o f c h a rge t r a n s f e r upon t h e s t r u c t u re a nd d yn am ic s of

t h e c l o u d before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o rm a ti on w i l l

be a s se s se d .

5 . Computer A na ly si s: Advances w i l l be made i n

computer technology i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t o

p e rm i t m o r e ac cu ra te ma themat ica l mode ling of t h e l a r g e

s c a l e m ot io ns o f t h e e a r t h ' s at mo sp he re l e a d in g t o the

e v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l t ec h n iq u es f o r a more

d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i st ur e b ea r i n g a i r massesover d rough t a rea s o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e xc es s.

The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r e

w i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d .

6. Socio-Economic, Le qal , and E co lo qi ca l Consequences

of Weather and Cl im a te Mo d i f i c a t io n : The recommendations

of the N S F S pe ci al Commission on Weather M od ifi ca tio n t o

assess t h e s o c i a l , econom ic, l e g a l and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t

of weathe r modi f ica t ion upon soc ie ty w i l l be t h e o b j e c t

o f i n t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h i n o rd e r t o i s o l a t e and e v a l u a t e

t ho s e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s which w i l l produce th e most

s i g n i f i c a n t im pa ct upon s o c i e t y due t o t h e s u c c e s s f u l

a p p l i c a t i o n of w e a th er and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u es

b y m is s io n a g e n c ie s .

The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c at i o n t o be

suppor ted by NSF p ro v id e s t h e primary mechanism f o r produc ing

t h e numbers of trained s c i e n t i s t s t h a t t he t o t a l program w i l l

r e q u i r e . Ex c e s s iv e fu n d in g f ro m NSF, however, would



31

monopolize a m ajor s o ur c e o f q u a l i f i e d p e rs o nn e l t h a t t h e

o t he r agency programs must r e l y on. I recommend, therefore,

a f u nd i ng l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f o fwhat NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a pa c it y o f t h e

academic community i n t h e area of we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n

i n a d d i t io n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR. T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o rt

would c l e a r l y pe r m i t NSF t o fund p rograms adequa te ly t h a t

a r e now being " s t r e t c h e d " and would p r o v id e t h e s t i m u l u s

needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e N SF program s ta ted above. I

recommend f u r t h e r , b e c a u s e of the fundamenta l importance ofa c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a tt h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d im me diat ely t o the l e v e l s

suggested above .

C a p i t a l F a c i l i t i e s

I s u p p o rt , i n g e n e r a l , th e agency p roposa ls

f o r e x te n si ve c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which a re n e c e s sa ry

t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a rc h and d e ve lo pm en t a s w e l l as

o p e r a t i o n a l m is si on s. Such f a c i l i t i e s i nc lu de a i r c r a f t ,

e x t e n si v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e te or ol og ic al

s e ns o r n etw ork s and d a t a an a l y s is f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e

l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s ( cl ou d cham bers, e t c . ) , and h igh-

s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l com puters f o r modeling ofa t m os p he r ic p r oc e ss e s. A l lo c at i on of f a c i l i t i e s s h ou l d

b e b as e d on t h e f o l l o w i ng p r i n c i p l e s :

1. If a m ajor f a c i l i t y se r ve s a s p e c i a l m i ss io n-

o r i e n t e d p u rp o se and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be

j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t pu rp os e, th e f a c i l i t y s ho u ld

be e s t a b l i s h e d and o pe r at e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c

e l e m e n t of the agency charged wi th t h a t miss ion .

For example: S m a l l a i r c r a f t and f i e l d s i t e sf u l l y u sed by the Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i n

t h e i r l i g h t n i n g s u pp r es s io n m i s si o n s ho ul d be

e s t a b l i s h e d a nd o p e ra t e d b y the Department of

A g r ic u l t u re a s p a r t of t h a t m i s s i o n . I n g e n e r a l ,



32

r a d io s o nd e b a l l o o n s , smal l - sca le l a b o r a t o r y a ndcomputing f a c i l i t i e s , an d i n d i v i d u a l a i r c r a f t

should be c o n t a in e d i n t h e s p e c i f i c mi ss i ons

where they a re needed.

These cons i de ra t i ons a re r e f l e c t e d i n my con-

cl u si o n s and recommendations s e t f o r t h i n th e

p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s ,

2. If a f a c i l i t y i s n o t u s e d f o r o n e s p e c i f i c

m i s s i on , b u t c a n be j u s t i f i e d on a f u l l - t i m e

use b a s i s f o r g e n e r a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o npurposes by one s in g le agency , t h a t agency

should e s t a b l i s h and ope ra t e t h e f a c i l i t y .

For example: I s u p p o r t t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t a nd

o p e r a t i o n of a p p r op r ia t e a i r c r a f t and f a c i l i t i e s

b y t h e Depar tmen t o f I n t e r i o r t o e x e c u t e t h e i r p r e c i p i -

t a t i o n a u gm e nt at io n m i s s io n , I a l s o s u p p o r t t h e u l t i -

mate e s t a b l i s hm ent by ESSA of a g e n e r a l p u rp o se f l e e t

of a i r c r a f t f o r u se i n t h a t a g e nc y 's d i v e r s i f i e d R&D

and mission programs.

3 . I f a f a c i l i t y i s f o r g e n e r a l - p u r p o s e u s e , b u t

i s s o e x t e n s iv e t h a t f u l l - t i m e u s e c an n ot be

j u s t i f i e d b y a s i n g l e agency , t hen t h e use of t h e

f a c i l i t y w i l l h av e t o be s h a r e d b y th e a g e n c i e s

and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t s e s t a b l i s h m e n t a nd

o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be ass i gned on a case-by-case

b a s i s .

S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , l a r ge c l oud

chambers, l a rge- sca le computers , and la rge-sca le

i n t e g r a t e d f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i s

c a t e g o r y.



33

I n assi gni ng r esponsi bi l i t y f or t hese f aci l i t i es

consi der at i on al so shoul d be gi ven t o thei r use

by i ndi vi dual agenci es f or purposes ot her t hanweat her modi f i cat i on.

I r ecommend that ESSA' s proposed program f or

f i el d f aci l i t i es, i n addi t i on to t he Nor man,

Okl ahoma f aci l i t y, be conducted w t h due r egar d

f or t he m ssi on needs of t he Depart ment of

I nt er i or. Speci f i cal l y, t he f i rst st ep i n t hi sexpansi on shoul d be a gener al purpose f i el d

f aci l i t y i n t he Nor t heast ern Uni t ed Stat es.

ESSA shoul d est abl i sh and operat e t he si t e notonl y f or ESSA's r esear ch, but al so i n col l abor at i onw t h t he Depar t ment of t he I nt er i or , and t he

f aci l i t y shoul d be shared bet ween at l east t hzse

t wo agenci es.

The devel opment of an under st andi ng of t he basi c

physi cs of cl oud f or mat i on, dynam cs, and

di ssi pat i on i s of pr i me i mpor t ance i n det er m ni ng

t he nechani sms t hat can be used t o modi f y cl ouds

and cl oud syst ems. As a weather si mul at i onf aci l i t y, t he ver y l ar ge cl oud chamber h o l d s

pr om se t o be a power f ul t ool f or such i nvest i ga-

t i ons. At t he same t i me, prudence di ct ates t hat some

exper i ence be obt ai ned w t h one. such chamber bef or e

any consi der at i on i s gi ven to the const r uct i on ofot hcrs. Because such a f aci l i t y bear s a ver y st r ong

r el at i onshi p t o uni ver si t y r esearch pr ogr ams and

t he t r ai ni ng of r esear ch t al ent , I r ecommend t hat

such a f aci l i t y be est abl i shed and operat ed by t he

Nat i onal Cent er f or At mospher i c Research underNSF sponsorshi p. On t he other hand, because of

t he i mport ance to ot her agenci es of t he r esear ch

t o be done w t h t he cl oud chamber, I r ecommend

t hat N S F associ at e t he ot her agenci es w t h NSF

i n t he pl anni ng and desi gn of the chamber , and

i n i t s use af t er const ruct i on.



34

The prese n t -da y op er a t io n i n mode ling techn iq ues

and n u m er ic a l f o r e c a s t i n g p r o ce d u re s i n d i c a t e s .t h a t a la r g e -s c a le , y e t t o be developed, computermay w e l l be r e q u i r e d . The p l a n n i n g o f i n d u s t r y

i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e c o m pu te rs ne ed s t o be known.

A l s o , t h e b a s i c research of t h e programs recom-mended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t s ho uld c l a r i f y

t h e r o l e of su ch com put ers, and may in de ed re-

move some of t h e need f o r t hem. H e r e a g a i n ,

however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n in g p h as e.

I a l s o recommend t h a t E S S A should e s t a b l i s h and

o p e ra t e l a r g e- s c a l e d i g i t a l c om pu te rs f o r t h e

purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e ri c c i r c u l a t i o n modelst o w ea th e r m o d i f i c a ti o n . It i s e x p e c t e d t h a t

e s t ab l i shmen t and ope ra t ion o f these computingf a c i l i t i e s cou ld be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y

by , an d sha red w i th , o t he r programs wi th i n E S S A .

While I f e e l t h a t a l a rg e m obile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r

bo th wea the r and wea the r mod i f i ca t ion r e sea rch i s

i m p o rt a nt t o t h e long range development o f th es e

f i e l d s , I a m un ab le t o d ete rm in e a t t h i s t i m e what

would be a r e a s o n a b le p ro gram f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n tof such a f a c i l i t y . I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o

fo l low a s t ep - b y- s te p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an

optinum l ar g e- sc a le f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which th e

development and use by i n d i v i d u a l a g en c ie s of t h e i rown neces sa ry smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would

be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g s t eps . I f e e l t h a t th e l a t t e rshould not be n e gl ec te d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g al ar ge -s ca le f a c i l i t y i n t o b ein g. I recommend

t h a t work tow ard t h e l a r g e -s c a le f l i g h t f a c i l i t y

rem ain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p la n n in g s t a g ef o r t h e t i m e be ing .



3 5

Coord ina t ion and Repor t inq

A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l an n in g , r e s e a r c h

and a p p l i c a t i o n s o f w e at h er m o d i fi c a t io n a r e br o ad and

v a r i e d i n scope, and have the i n t e r e s t of many agencies.Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d in a t io n i s im p e ra t iv e , and w i t h

th e p a s sa g e o f t im e c o o rd in a t io n w i l l become e v e r more

i m p o r t a nt t o s ound pl a n n i ng a nd e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n

of th e program. I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h a n d a p p l i c a -

t i o n s o f w ea th er m o di f ic a ti o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o

m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and su p p o r ti n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d ,

i t would b e an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t em p t t o s e p a r a t e them.

Hence, I recommend t h a t t he F ede ra l C oor din ato r , who

a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o rd i n at i on and r e p o r t i n g

i n t h i s a r e a o f m et e or o lo g y , un d e rt a ke c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h eNa tj .o na 1 We athe r Mo d i f i c a t io n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e

c o o r d i n at i o n o f n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n m et eo ro lo gy ;

B y " c o o r d i n a t i o n " I m e a n l a r g e l y " c o r r e l a t i o n ,

in c l ud in g document ing and tab u l a t in g i n one p lace , and

a n a l y z i n g e x i s t i n g g overnm ent program a c t i v i t y , p r o-

v i d in g f o r a l l concerned a c on ti nu in g v i s i b i l i t y o f t h e

w hole n a t i o n a l w ea th er m o d i f i ca t i o n e f f o r t . I t i s

i n te n d ed t o a s s i g n t h e same k i nd of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n

we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n t h a t t h e Fe d e ra l Co o rd in a to r nowhas f o r meteorology. Such a w e l l organized program of

c e n t r a l c o r r e l a t i o n o f p rogram a c t i v i t i e s may be e x p e c te d

t o lea d t o ag reements and a r rangements among th e a gen c ie s

on s u c h t h i n g s a s j o i n t p ur ch as e of m a t e r i a l s and e q u i p -

m en ts , common su p p o r t and u se of f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t f i e l d

o p e r a t i o n s , e l i m i n a t i o n of u n d e s i r a b l e d u p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e

e s t a b li s h m e n t o f o b s e rv i ng n e t s , e t c . It i s n o t i n t e n d e d

t o g i v e t h e F e d e r al C o o rd in at or r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r program

p la n n in g o r c o n t ro l . These would c o n t in u e t o b e t h e

r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o f t h e o p e r a ti n g a g e n c i e s and u nd er t h er e v ie w o f I C A S . The o v e r a l l r e s u l t w ould b e an e f f e c t i v e l y

coord ina ted p rogram.



3 6

I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e ra l C o o rd in at or f o r

Meteorology should be a s s ig n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g

and s u b m i t ti n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a th e r

m o d if ic a ti on a c t i v i t i e s . T h is r e p o r t i n g a ss ig nm e nt

i s a t p r e s e n t b y law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c eFoundat ion . I b e l ie v e t h a t it i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e

N S F of t h i s burden. For o n e t h in g , t h e p r i n c i p a l

f u t u r e of w e at he r m o d i f i c a ti o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d

tow ard a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h a nd o p e r a t i o n s , w hic h a r e n o t

and should not be i n the mains t r eam of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i -

b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c r e s e a r c h . S ec on dl y, a s h a s a l r e a d y

b ee n p o i n t e d o u t , w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h an d

o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y i nt er w ov e n w i t h m e te or o-

l o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t in g r e s e a r c h . R e q u i r i n g t h e

F e d e r a l C o o r d i n at o r f o r M e t eo ro lo gy t o r e p o r t on t h en a t i o n a l w e at he r m o d i f i c a ti o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p pe a rs

t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .

Req u l a t i o n an d Co n t r o l

A s brou ght ou t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S pe c i a l Commission

Repor ts ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n a n d

c o n t r o l i n w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n i s a complex and urgent

one. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a speci f ico r g an i z at i on t o b e as s ig n ed t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r

r e g u l a t i o n a n d c o n t r o l of w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n a c t i v i -

t i e s . I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations.

I f e e l v e ry s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s t

n o t be one o f t h e o p e r a t i n g ag e n c ie s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n

th e Nat io na l Weather M od if ic a t io n Program. T o a s s i g n

t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i ty t o one of t h e se ag en c i e s would

im m ed ia te ly g e n e r a t e c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h e

seed s of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o n

and c o n t r o l t o e n d le s s f r E s t r a t i o n .



37

I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o ul d n o t be t h e

I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e fo r Atmospher ic Sciences

(ICAS). I n my v iew , t h e r eg u l a t i o n and co n t r o l f u n c t i o nw i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k f o r a m o d es t s t a f f of p eo p l e ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l we ath er m o d if i c a ti o n e f f o r t

i n c r e a s e s a n d as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope.

I C A S i s i n n o p o s i t i o n t o u n d e rt a ke s u ch a f u l l - t i m e

ass ignment . Moreover, many o f the co nf l i c t -o f - in te re s t

p r o b l e m s t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n

t o o ne o f t h e o p e r a t in g a g e n ci e s would a l s o e x i s t i n

su ch an a s s i g n m en t t o I C A S .

were t h e O f f i c e o f t h e F e d e r a l C o o rd i n a t o r f o rMeteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a te from E S S A , and perhaps

even from t h e Department of Commerce, one might ass ign

t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l C o o rd i na t or .

s t r o n g l y , h ow ever, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s betw een

t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i na t or s o f f i c e a nd ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y

amb iva len t t o make t he ass ignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n

and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F ed e r a l Co o r d i n a t o r a nunwise s tep .

I f e e l v e r y

I n t e r n a t i o n a l I m p l i c a t i o n s

By app rox ima tely 1 9 7 2 , w h e n l a r g e - s c a l e weather

m o d i f i ca t i o n ex p e r im en t s may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y

may be e x p ec t ed t o have c o n s i d er a bl e i n t e r n a t i o n a l

impact . T h i s impact w i l l be twofo ld :

(1)g e o g r a p h i c a l l y more e x t e n s i v e , t h e r e w i l l be

a need f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g s u ch o p e r a t i o n s w i t h

n a t i o n s whose t e r r i t o r i e s a r e a f f e c t e d b y

those o p e r a t i o n s . I f e x p er im e n ts t a k e p l a c eo v e r o cean s t h e r e may be a c o n f l i c t w i t hwea t h e r m o d i f i ca t i o n ex p e r im en t s b y o t h e r

n a t i o n s . This i s e s s e n t i a l l y a q u e s t i o n

of r eg u l a t i o n an d co o r d i n a t i o n . It is n o t

ex p ec t ed t h a t a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y

body w i l l e x i s t b y t h a t t ime. Indeed, e f f o r t s

A s ex p e r i m en t s an d o p e r a t i o n s become



3 0

t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l a gency t o d e a l

w i t h wea the r mo d i f i c a t i on , wh i l e w e l l i n t e n d e d ,

a r e l i k e l y t o be of d u b io u s v a l u e an d t o c r e a t e

r a t h e r t ha n r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l p ro ble ms--if t h e

e x p e r i e n c e i n nuc l ea r ene rgy and sp ace i s any

guide.

A more p r a c t i c a l a nd c o n s t r u c t i v e a pp ro ac h t o t h e

in te r n a t i o n a l p roblem--and one which shou ld pave

r a t h e r t h a n b lo c k t h e way f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y

experimentat ion--would be th rough b i l a t e r a l o r

m u l t i l a t e r a l a rr an ge m en ts . I n t h e s e , t h e U . S .

would s e e k t o e s t a b l i s h t h e m u tu al i n t e r e s t of

n e i gh b o r in g c o u n t r i e s i n l a r g e - s c a l e e x pe r im e n ts

and t o engage them wi th us i n such exper iment s .

I n t h i s w a y , w e c o u l d e d u c a t e a growing number

o f c o u n t r i e s , e s t a b l i s h o ur good f a i t h , i n c r e a s e

t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e p rogram i n t h e e y e s

of t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , d e m on s tr a te v a l ue s

t r a n s c e n d i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , and w i n

s u p p o rt where r e q u i r e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l f orum s

which may address themselves on a p o l i t i c a l

b a s i s t o t h e p ro ble ms o f w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a ti o n .

The o f f i c e f o r r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l , d i s cu s s e d

i n t h e p r ec e di ng s e c t i o n , w i l l c e r t a i n l y have

t o bz i nv olv ed . N a t io n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w i l l

hav e t o b e c l a r i f i e d a nd d e f i n e d . T h i s , h ow ev er ,

i s 6 s u b j e c t ou t s id e th e scop e of my ass ignment .

( 2 ) B e n e f i t s and p o t e n t i a l p a y o f f s o f w e at he r

mod i f i ca t i on expe r i men t s on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e

have a l r eady been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n

t o t h i s r e p o r t . When a p p l i e d on a g l o b a l s c a l e

t h e se b e n e f i t s c o ul d i n c r e a s e g r e a t l y . For

example , m od i f i ca t i on and d i ve r s i o n of t r o p i c a l

s t o r m s o r typhoons i n t h e Weste rn P a c i f i c or



39

Indian Ocean would r e s u l t n ot o n ly i n t h e

p rev en t i o n o f p r op e r t y damage se ve ra l orders

of m a g n i t u d e g r e a t e r t h a n i n North America,

b u t a l s o , and m o r e i m p o rt a nt ly , i n t h e s a v in gof c o u n t l e s s numbers of human l i v e s . S i m i l a r

b e n e f i t s would occu r from p r ec i p i t a t i o n

a ug m en ta tio n b y r e l i e v i n g l a r g e areas from

t h e e f f e c t s of ex ten s iv e drought s . Thus,

v a l ua b le e x pe ri en c e g ai ne d i n i t i a l l y on as m a l l e r , n a t i o n a l sca le , may e v e n tu a l l y be

i m po r ta n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , p e r m i t t in g us t o

c o o p e r a t e w i t h and a s s i s t o th er c o u n tr i e s i n

t h e sav ing of human l i v e s and pro pe r ty , and

i n t h e enhancement of human w e l f a r e . T h i si s a n o t h e r of th e b e n e f i t s t h a t may r e s u l t from

a v i g o r o u s n a t i o n a l program s u ch a s t h a t d i s c u s s e d

i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s .

Concludinq S t a t e m e n t

I t i s b e l ie v e d t h a t t h e p la n I recommend h e r e i nwould p erm i t t h e development of a National Weather

Modif icat ion Program wi th a s a t i s f a c t o r y fo rw ard t h r u s t

a t a r e a l i s t i c pace, would provide i n t e r e s t e d a g e n c i e sw i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l and s a t i s f y i n g in v ol ve m en t, w ould

make good u s e o f t h e e x p e r ie n c e and i n t e r e s t of t h e

v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h ass igned agency

r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , c an d e ve lo p i n t o a w e l l- c o o rd i n at e d

and i n t eGr a t ed n a t i o na l p rogram, and shou l d avo i d

p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t s .



REFERENCES

1.

2.

3.

Fi nal Repor t of the Panel on Weat her and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on t o t he Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences,

Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ;"Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, Probl ems and Pr ospect s, "Vol ume I- Summar y and Recommendat i ons, Vol ume II- Resear ch

and Devel opment , Publ i cat i on No. 1350, 1966

Report of the Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on; "Weather and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on, " Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-3, transmtted

t o NSF December 20, 1965

Repor t t o the Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on; "Weat her Modi f i cat i on Law,Cont r ol s, Oper at i ons, " Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-7 (no

date)



APPENDI CES

I Panel on Weat her and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on to t he

Comm t t ee on At mospheri c Sci ences, Nat i onal Academy

of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l : Member shi p

and Recommendat i ons

I1 Speci al Comm ssi on on Weather Modi f i cat i on, Nat i onal

Sci ence Foundat i on: Membershi p and Recommendat i ons

I11 Report prepared by t he I CAS Sel ect Panel on Weat herModi f i cat i on; "Pr esent and Fut ure Pl ans of Feder al

Agenci es i n Weat her - Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, " dat ed

J une 20, 1966

IV Memorandum f or Dr. Homer E. Newel 1 f r omJ . Herbert

Hol l omon, Chai r man, I CAS, Subj ect : Nat i onal Weat herModi f i cat i on Pr ogr am dated J une 21, 1966

V NASA Panel t o St udy Weat her Modi f i cat i on Act i vi t i es;

Membershi p, Chronol ogy of Meet i ngs, and a Compi l at i on

of Suppor t i ng Mat er i al used by t he Panel

VI Budget Recommendat i ons and Trends f or a Nat i onal

Weat her Modi f i cat i on Program



PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION

to the

Committee on Atmospheric Sciences

NAS-NRC

MEMBERSHIP

RECOMMENDATIONS

APPENDIX I

1-1



PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ON

t o t heComm t t ee on At mospheri c Sci ences, NAS- NRC

Gordon J . F. MacDonal d, Uni versi t y of Cal i f or ni a at Los Angel es,

Chai r man

J ul i an H Bi gel ow, I nst i t ut e f or Advanced St udy

J ul e G. Char ney, Massachuset t s I nst i t ut e of Technol ogy

Ral ph E. Huschke, The RAND Corporat i on

Fr anci s S . J ohnson, Sout hwest Center f or Advanced Studi es

Hei nz H. Let t au, Uni versi t y of Wisconsin

Edward N Lor enz, Massachuset t s I nst i t ut e of Technol ogy

J ames E. McDonal d, Uni versi t y of Ar i zona

*J oanne Si mpson, Envi r onment al Sci ence Ser vi ces Adm ni st r at i on

J oseph Smagori nsky, Envi r onment al Sci ence Ser vi cesAdm ni st r at i on

Verner E. Suom , Uni ver si t y of Wsconsi n

Edward Tel l er , Uni ver si t y of Cal i f orni a at Li ver mor e

H. K. Wei ckmann, Envi r onment al Sci ence Ser vi ces Adm ni st r at i on

E. J . Workman, Uni ver si t y of Hawai i

LI AI SON MEMBERS

Donal d L. Gi l man, Envi r onment al Sci ence Ser vi ces Adm ni st r at i on

Edward P. Todd, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on

*Thr ough 1964

1-2



PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ONt o t he

Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences

Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences - Nat i onal Resear ch Counci l

AREAS AND RECOMMENDATI ONS

Admni st r at i on and Fundi ng of Research and Devel opment i n

Weat her Modi f i cat i on

We r ecommend an i mmedi at e and t horough st udy of t headmni st r at i on and support of r esear ch and devel opment

i n weat her modi f i cat i on.

We r ecommend t hat i mmedi at e st eps be t aken by t heagenci es t o r ai se the suppor t f r omt he 1965 l evel of

$5 m l l i on t o at l east $30 ml l i on by 1970.

Proj ect s i n St i mul at i on of Pr eci pi t at i on

We recommend t he earl y est abl i shment of several car e-f ul l y desi gned, r andom zed, seedi ng exper i ment s, pl annedi n such a way as t o per m t assessment of t he seedabi l i t y

of a var i et y of st or mt ypes.

We r ecommend, t her ef ore, t hat means be f ound, at f ederal

expense i f necessar y, t o secur e much bet t er eval uat i ve

repor t s on oper at i onal pr ogr ams t han ar e cur r ent l yavai l abl e.

We r ecommend t hat at t ent i on be gi ven i mmedi atel y t o

caref ul moni t or i ng and regul at i on of oper at i onal pr ogr ams

f or weat her modi f i cat i on.

Re search Proper t i es

We recommend t hat pl anni ng be st art ed i mmedi atel y on al l

the f ol l ow ng maj or f i el d i nvest i gat i ons:

1- 3



a. A compr ehensi ve expl orat i on of hur r i cane

ener get i cs, l eadi ng to the devel opment of a

t heoret i cal hur r i cane model and, subsequent l y, to

hypot heses f or hur r i cane modi f i cat i on.

b. Measurement of t ropi cal convect i on and ot heraspect s of energy- exchange processes i n the t ropi cs.

c. A comprehensi ve i nvest i gat i on of hai l st orms.

d. A coordi nat ed set of proj ect s t o measure t hedynam cs and wat er budget s of a var i et y of pre-

ci pi t at i ng storm t ypes,

e.

pher i c sci ences wi l l cont r i but e t o t he goal s ofweat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on. Of t he r esearch

promsi ng t he most di rect cont r i but i ons, we r ecommendt hat hi ghest pr i or i t y be assi gned t o t he f ol l ow ng

studi es:

I t i s cl ear t hat research t hr oughout the at mos-

1.i ni t i al l y on vapor t ranspor t ovar t hose

por t i ons of t he Uni ted St ates where t he pot en-t i al of cl oud seedi ng i s i mpor t ant ,

St udi es of at mospher i c water budgets,

2. St udi es of boundary- l ayer energy- exchange

processes,

3 . Cont i nued devel opment of t heoret i calmodel s of condensat i on and pr eci pi t at i on mech-

ani sms, i ncl udi ng the ear l y i ncorpor at i on of

dynam cal and el ect r i cal i nf l uences and the

ef f ect s of changes i n concent rat i ons of con-densat i on and f reezi ng nucl ei .

4. New and comprehensi ve st udi es of t hemet eorol ogi cal ef f ects of at mospher i c pol -

l ut i on ( i ncl udi ng carbon di oxi de) and

urbani zat i on.

1-4



Maj or Research Faci l i t i es and Support Syst ems

We recommend that al l necessar y st eps be t aken t oencourage t he comput er i ndust r y to respond t o t heseprospect i ve r equi rement s.

We recommend f ul l U.S. suppor t and l eader shi p i nprompt l y est abl i shi ng an advanced gl obal - observat i onal

system

We recommend t hat the ci vi l r esearch ai r craf t f aci l i t i es

be enl arged to i ncl ude di ver si f i ed t ypes of ai r craf t

and suppor t i ng dat a- gat heri ng syst ems to meet t herequi rement s pl aced upon them

I nt ernal Aspects

We r ecommend that t he f ederal agency assi gned maj or

admni st rat i ve r esponsi bi l i t i es i n thi s f i el d al so be

empowered t o deal wi t h the compl ex i nt ernat i onali ssues ar i si ng f r omweat her - modi f i cat i on proj ects.

1-5



SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION

National Science Foundation

M E M B E R S H I P

RECOMMENDAT IONS

A P P E N D I X I1

11-1



SPECI AL COMM SSI ON ON WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON

Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on

A. R. Chamber l ai n, Chai r man, Vi ce Presi dent , Col orado St at e

Uni versi t y

J ohn Bardeen, Vi ce Chai r man, Depart ment s of Physi cs andEl ect r i cal Engi neer i ng, Uni ver si t y of I l l i noi s

W l l i amG. Col man, Execut i ve Di r ect or , Advi sory Comm ssi on onI nt ergovernment a1 Re a t i ons

J ohn C . Dr ei er , School of Advanced I nt er nat i onal St udi es,

The J ohns Hopki ns Uni ver si t y

Leoni d Hur w cz, Depar t ment of Econom cs, Uni ver si t y ofM nnesot a

Thomas F. Mal one, Second Vi ce Presi dent , Research Depar t ment ,Travel ers I nsurance Company

Arthur W Mur phy, Col umbi a Uni ver si t y School of Law

Sumner T. Pi ke, Lubec, Mai ne

Wl l i am S. von Ar x, Massachuset t s I nst i t ut e of Technol ogyand Woods Hol e Oceanographi c I nst i t ut i on

Gi l ber t F. Whi t e, Depar t ment of Geogr apny, Uni ver si t y ofChi cago

Karl M W l bur , Depar t ment of Zool ogy, Duke Uni ver si t y

11-2



SPECI AL COMM SSI ON ON WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON

Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on

CONCLUSI ONS AND RECOMMENDATI ONS

Progr ess and Prospecks i n Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on

The Comm ssi on concl udes that sound pr ogr ess t oward the

t echnol ogy of weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on must be

based on f our f undament al pursui t s:

a. Assessment and devel opment of an under st andi ng

of nat ur al cl i mat i c change.

b. Assessment of t he ext ent and devel opment of t he

under st andi ng of i nadver t ent modi f i cat i ons of weat her

and cl i mat e.

c. I mpr ovement of t he process of weat her pr edi ct i on

as a soci al benef i t and as pr oof of sci ent i f i c

under st andi ng of at mospher i c behavi or , and

d. Devel opment of means f or del i ber at e i nt er vent i on

i n at mospher i c pr ocesses f or weat her and cl i mate

cont r ol and eval uat i on of thei r consequences.

As st eps t oward t hese at t ai nment s t he Corra iss io i i r ecommends

t k a t the f ol l ow ng ent erpr i ses be f ostered:

i . Exam nat i on of the r out es, r at es, and reser voi r s

of water subst ance and energy exchanges i n al l aspects

of t he hydr ol ogi c cycl e.

2. I nvest i gat i on by numer i cal l aborat ory and f i el d

exper i ment s of t he dynam cs of cl i mat e as a basi cst udy f or weat her modi f i cat i on technol ogy.

11-3



3 . Advancement of w eather p re d ic t i o n a s a proof of

u n de r st a nd i ng , i n c l u di n g s u p p o rt of t h i s e f f o r t by

t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a g l o b a l we at he r o b s e r v a t i o nnetwork .

4 . Broadenins 0 - th e knowledge of c lo ud ph ys ics and

dynamics i n thc, l a b o r a to r y and f i e l d , w i t h a t t e n t i o n

t o wave phenomena and an e v a lu a ti o n of e l e c t r i c a l

i n f l u e n c e s .

5 . S tu dy of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e

m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numer ica l and la bo ra to ry models of

t h e o c ea n i c and a tm o s ph e ri c g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n ,and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n

of t h e land and sea .

6 . S tu dy of t he r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e

a tm o sp h e r i c c o m po s it io n and a l t e r a t i o n o f i t s t r a n s -

pa rency t h a t u rban g rowth and n e w forms o f i n d u s t ry ,

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o r l a n d u s e may evoke.

Bio log ica l Aspec ts o f Wea the r Modi f ica t ion

L i vi ng t h i n g s a r e a da pt ed t o t h e we at he r t h a t a c t u a l l y

p reva i l s , and any change i n t h a t w ea th er w i l l b e g e n e r a l l y

d e l e t e r i o u s t o them.

The l a r g e s t c r e d i t i te m f o r w e at he r m o d i f ic a t i on i s l i k e l y

t o he a n in c re a se i n pr imary p roduc t ion of t h e d r i e r

p a r t s ui ' I:he land sur fa ce through improvements i n r a i n f a l l .

Even t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l s ea so na l d i s t r i b u t i o n of

r a i n f a l l would l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t f ar mi ng o p e r a t i o n s .

R e a l i z a t i o n of t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o du c ti o n w ould

depend upon be in g a b l e t o modify t h e r a i n f a l l w it ho ut

m ajor p e s t o u tb re a k s a nd e x t i n c t i o n a nd d i s r u p t io n o f

na tu ra l communi t ie s . I t i s n o t c e r t a i n t h a t t h i s w ould

be p o s s i b l e .

11-4



The l ar gest weat her modi f i cat i on debi t i t emi s l i kel y

t o spr i ng f romt he decreased st abi l i t y of communi t i es,

whi ch woul d mani f est i t sel f i n an i ncrease i n pest s,weeds, and pat hogens. The i dent i t y of t he speci es i n-

vol ved i n t hese di sr upt i ons cannot be pr edi ct ed, norcan t hei r cost .

For t he pr esent , weat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on shoul dbe rest r i ct ed t o i ocal smal l - scal e operat i ons.

Larger scal e oper at i ons, such as an at t empt t o i ncrease

the rai nf al l of any subst ant i al par t of t hi s count r y,

shoul d not be under t aken, f r oma bi ol ogi cal poi nt ofvi ew, i n the pr esent st at e of know edge.

A l l weat her modi f i cat i on exper i ment s of a scal e l arge

enough t o have i mpor t ant bi ol ogi cal consequences, such

a t hose cur rent l y envi si oned f o r t he ' u' pper Col orado

Basi n, shoul d be pr eceded and accompani ed by car ef ul

ecol ogi cal moni t or i ng and comput er si mul at i on st udi es.

Mani pul at i ng t he weat her t o obt ai n a net benef i t wi l l

demand much bet t er underst andi ng of t he i nt er act i ons ofweat her , cl i mat e and or gani sms t han now avai l abl e.

Adequat e under st andi ng of t he i nt er r el at i onshi p ofweat ner , cl i mat e and ecol ogy w l l demand a ver y expensi ve

l ong- t er mr esear ch program Present r esour ces ofecol agi cal l y t r ai ned i nvest i gat or s ar e i nadequat e to

ccjpe wi t h t hese probl ems.

Tho Worki ng Gr oup of t he Ecol ogi cal Soci et y of Amer i ca,

whi ch pr i - vi ded backgr ound mat er i al f or t he Comm ssi on,

was concer ned pr i mar i l y wi t h modi f i cat i ons of weat hersyst ems rangi ng f roma si ngl e cl oud t o an ext r at r opi cal

cycl oni c st orm The Wor ki ng Group st at ed t hat shor t -t ermmodi f i cat i ons of weat her of a magni t ude si m l ar

t o t h e f l uctuat i ons i n nat ur e are l east l i kel y t o havedanqerous unf or eseen consequences. I f undesi r abl er esul t s appear , the modi f i cat i ons can be di scont i nued.

11-5



R ep eated o p e r a t i o n s on t h e s c a l e m e nt io ne d a r e l i k e l y ,

how ever, t o have f a r r e a c h i n g b i o l o g i c a l c on se qu en ce s

a s p o i n t e d o u t i n t h e p rev i ous se c t i o ns , and some o ft h e b i o l o g i c a l c ha ng es would n o t b e r e v e r s i b l e . T h i s

ad vis or y group recommended t h a t rep eat ed and long t e r m

m o d i f i c a t i o n s of weather : lot be a t te m p t e d w i t h o u t p r i o r

c a r e f u l a n d w e l l p lanned mon i t o r i ng o r compute r s i m u l a t i o ns t u d i e s o f t h e b i o l s g i c a l c on se qu en ce s of p a r t i c u l a r

k i nds of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n .

S t a t i s t i c a l A spec ts of Weather Modif icat ion

S t a t i s t i c a l t r a i n i n g f o r m et eo r ol o gi s t s s ho uld b epromoted i n academic p rograms . I n t e l l e c t u a l i n t e rchang e

between s c i e n t i s t s and s t a t i s t i c i a n s s ho ul d b e c o n ti n ue d

t h r o u g h p e r i o d i c s e m i n a r s .

S t a t i s t i c a l c o ns u l t an t s s h ou ld be made av a i l a b l e t o

s c i e n t i s t s i n t h i s f i e l d th rough t’ie suppo r t o f con fe r -

ences where n e w p r o j e c t s can be p r e s e n t e d , t h r o u g h u s e

of s t a t i s t i c i a n s a s e v a lu a to r s of prop osed work, and

t hr o ug h t h e s u p p o r t o f t a s k f o r c e s an d a d v i s o r y p a n e l s ,

w i t h s t a t i s t i c i a n members, f o r l a r g e p r o j e c t s . S t a t i s t i -

c i a n s s h ou ld a i d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of p r o p o s a l s f o r

government -suppor ted research .

Step? shou l d be t a k e n t o a s s u r e t h a t p la n s f o r g ov ern -m ent-supported r e se a rc h u t i l i z e s t a t i s t i c a l p r i n c i p l e s

111 de t e rmi na t i on o f de s i gn and s i z e .

Kewarch i n methodology should be promoted. Th is in -

clude;; L;,C development and va l ida t ion of s t a t i s t i c a l

models, u n it or m it y t r i a l s and o t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f

t h e s t a t i s t i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n

i n t h i s work.

I t i s urged t h a t any re gu l a t o r y agency t h a t m i gh t comei n to b ei ng sh ou ld have a s t a f f s t a t i s t i c i a n t o g ui de

e f f o r t s t o g a t h e r v a l i d e v i d e n c e on t h e m ag nitu de and

e f f e c t s of c l oud seed i ng .

11-6



A program of car ef ul l y pl anned pr eci pi t at i on- or i ent edf i el d exper i ment s shoul d be car r i ed out under compl et e

cont r ol of t he sci ent i st s, embodyi ng t he requi r ed

t echni cal know edge, possessi ng cont i nui t y over a per i od

needed f or concl usi veness, and on suf f i ci ent scal e t opermt geogr aphi c concl usi ons, as wel l as st at i st i calstr at i f i cat i on accordi ng to t he type of seedi ng agent ,

mode of i nj ect i on, cl oud t ype, et c.

The Human Ef f ects of Weat her and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on

St eps shoul d be t aken t o assure t hat wher ever f i el dexperi ment at i on or commerci al operat i ons are undert akeni n weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on arr angement s be

made t o st udy t he soci al consequences.

A speci al panel shoul d be establ i shed t o exchange andgi ve c r i t i c a l r evi ew t o the resul t s of such st udi es.

The method of assessi ng i mpacts of weat her modi f i cat i onshoul d be t he subj ect of research l ooki ng t o i t s r e-

f i nement and extensi on.

Freedomof f i el d exper i ment at i on shoul d be suppor t edby pr ovi di ng i ndemni f i cat i on of Feder al l y f i nanced

exper i ment ers agai nst damage cl ai ms.

Resear ch shoul d be encouraged on the basi c r el at i onshi psbet Leen weat her character i st i cs and human act i vi t y.

Deci si on r mki ng processes i n the f ace of uncer t ai nt y

as t o weat her modi f i cat i on and i t s ef f ect s shoul d besubj ected t o car ef ul i nvest i gat i on as a means of i ncreas-

i ng the gover nment ' s abi l i zy t o pr edi ct t he resul t s ofal t er nat i ve pol i ci es and met hods f or weat her modi f i cat i on.

I nt er di sci pl i nar y study of modi f i cat i ons whi ch man makesi nadver t ent l y shoul d be encouraged.

11-7



L eg a l an d L eg i s l a t i v e A s p e c t s

The Commission recommends t h a t th e F ed er al Government

by a p p ro p r ia t e l e g i s l a t i o n be empowered to :

1.

p r i v a t e -- i n a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t w it hwea ther and c l im ate mod i f i ca t ion programs o f t h e

F e d e r a l g ~ v e r n m e n t ,wh e th e r ca r r i e d on b y t h e

g o v e r n m e n t i t s e l f o r by i t s g r a n t e e s o r c o n t r a c t o r s ;

Delay o r h a l t a l l a c t i v i t i e s -- p u b l i c o r

2 . Immunize Fed era l age n t s , g r an te es , and con-

t r a c t o r s engaged i n wea t h e r and c l i m a t e m o d i f i -

c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s from S t a t e and l o c a l go vernm ent

i n t e r f e r e n c e ; a n d

3 . P ro v id e t o F e d e r a l g r a n t e e s and c o n t r a c t o r s

i n d em n i f i c at io n o r o t h e r p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t

l i a b i l i t y t o t h e p u b l i c f o r damages c au se d by

Federal programs of weather and c l i m a t e modi f i -

c a t i o n .



Weat her Modi f i cat i on and I nt ernat i onal Rel at i ons

The Comm ssi on bel i eves t hat i t woul d be hi ghl y desi r abl e

f or t he Gover nment of t he Uni t ed St at es, i n connect i on

wi t h t he expansi on of i t s programof weat her and cl i mat e

modi f i cat i on, t o i ssue a basi c st at ement as t o how i t

vi ews t he rel at i onshi p of t hi s new nat i onal ef f or t t o

the i nt er est s, hopes, and possi bl e appr ehensi ons of

t he r est of t he wor l d. The Comm ssi on f ur t her bel i eves

t hat emphasi s upon i nt ernat i onal cooper at i on i n the

devel opment of weat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on pr ogr ams

wi l l cont r i but e substant i al l y t o sci ent i f i c and t echni cal

progr ess and wi l l al so serve t he nat i onal purpose of

seeki ng t o bui l d a peacef ul wor l d order .

The Comm ssi on r ecommends t he ear l y enunci at i on of a

nat i onal pol i cy embodyi ng two mai n poi nt s: (1) t hat

i t i s t he pur pose of t he Uni t ed St at es, wi t h nor mal and

due regar d t o i t s own basi c i nt er est s, t o pur sue i t s

ef f or t s i n weat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on f or peacef ul

ends and f or t he const ruct i ve i mpr ovement of condi t i ons

of human l i f e t hr oughout t he wor l d: and (2) t hat t he

Uni t ed St at es, r ecogni zi ng the i nt er est s and concer ns

of ot her count r i es, wel comes and sol i ci t s t hei r cooper at i on,di r ect l y and t hr ough i nt ernat i onal ar r angement s, f or t he

achi evement of t hat obj ect i ve. Thi s cooper at i on shoul d

cover bot h r esear ch and oper at i onal pr ogr ams of i nt erest

t o ot her count r i es. I t shoui d be concer ned not onl y

wi t h del i ber at e but al so i nadver t ent human i nt ervent i ons

i n t he at mospher e t hat af f ect weat her and cl i mat e. Such

a pol i cy decl ar at i on coul d be i ssued by t he Pr esi dentor i ncorporat ed i n any basi c l egi sl at i on on t he subj ect

of weat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on whi ch the Congr ess

may enact .

11- 9



Fundi ng and Admni st rat i on Requi r ement s

The Commssi on has consi der ed car ef ul l y t he pr obl ems

at t endant upon t he assi gnment of r esponsi bi l i t y f orweat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on act i vi t i es w t hi n t he

Execut i ve Br anch of t he Federal Government .

There are no easy sol ut i ons t o t hese quest i ons. The

Commssi oi i bel i eves t he adopt i on of t he f ol l ow ng

recommendat i ons woul d si gni f i cant l y i mprove the ef f ect i ve-ness of t he Nat i on' s ef f or t s i n t hi s f i el d, and woul df aci i i t at e the achi evement of t he sci ent i f i c and ot her

obj ect i ves speci f i ed el sewher e i n t hi s repor t .

a. Responsi bi l i t y f or Resear ch, Devel opment , and

Oper at i ons

The Comm ssi on recommends: (1) t he assi gnment oft he m ssi on of devel opi ng and test i ng t echni ques

f or modi f yi ng weat her and cl i mat e t o a si ngl e agency

i n t he Execut i ve Br anch of t he Gover nment - f or

exampl e t o the Envi r onment al Sci ence Servi ces

Adm ni st r at i on of t he Depar t ment of Commer ce or t o a

compl etel y new agency organi zed f or t he pur pose; (2)t ne cont i nuance and expansi on of r esear ch i n t he

at mospher i c sci ences by t he Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,

i ncl udi ng i t s pr ogr amdi r ected at pr ovi di ng a sat i s-

t i ctory sci ent i f i c basi s f or weat her and cl i mat e

nx5f i cat i on and t he mai nt enance of t he Nat i onal

<t :!iiter f or At mospher i c Resear ch as a basi c r esear ch

f aci i l t y for t hi s pur pose; and ( 3 ) t he conduct or

suppor t , pur suant t o Execut i ve Order 10521, of such

basi c and appl i ed r esear ch by ot her Feder al agenci es

as i s requi red! f or t hei r var i ed m ssi ons as wel l as

t he conduct of oper at i onal act i vi t i es necessary f ort he accompl i shment of such m ssi ons (e. g. , pr eci pi t a-

t i on augment at i on f or t he r eser voi r systemof t heBureau of Recl amat i on; l i ght ni ng suppr essi on by t he

U . S . For est Ser vi ce; m l i t ary appl i cat i ons by t he

Depart ment of Def ense; etc. ).

11-10



The degr ee of t he Foundat i on' s speci al at t ent i on t ot hi s f i el d, i ncl udi nq ?he suppor t of r el at ed r esearchi n ot her af f ected di r : i pl i nes, shoul d be revi ewedf romt i me t o t i me ir: t he l i ght of t he progress oft he over al l nat i onal program The Foundat i on needs

t o cont i nue t he vi gor ous suppor t of basi c r esearchi n t he at mospheri c sci ences because f undament al

k: i ow edge so der i ved i s a necessary underpi nni ng t ot echnol ogi cal progress i n weat her and cl i mat e

mcdi f i cat i on.

The agency assi gned the mssi on of devel opi ng andt est i ng techni ques f or modi f yi ng weat her and cl i mat e,as a par t of i t s over al l m ssi on, shoul d have maj or

but not excl usi ve responsi bi l i t y i n col l aborat i on

w t h t he St at e Depar t ment f or f ormul at i ng and i mpl e-ment i ng weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on programs

i nvol vi ng i nt ernat i onal col l aborat i on wi t h thegovernment s of other n a t i o n s . T h e gover nment ' s

act i vi t i es i n i nt ernat i onal cooperat i on can be

substant i al l y assi sted by t he par t i ci pat i on of the

Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences.

Regul at i on

The Comm ssi on recommends t hat r esponsi bi l i t y f orappropr i at e Feder al r egul at i on of weat her and cl i mat exodi f i cat i on act i vi t i es t o a i d t he Federal Govern-

m<.nt's progr amof research and devel opment and to

- , ; otect t he gener al publ i c be kept separat ed f r om

K - ~.ealrch and devel opment act i vi t i es whi l e assur i ng

prompt and f ul l avai l abi l i t y t o such act i vi t i es ofdat a der i ved f r omt he regul at i on of commer ci al and

ot her operat i onal 2ct i vkt i es. Such a combi nat i onni ght be achi evc, d, f or exmpl e, by assi gni ng t he

regul at ory f unct i on to some par t of t he Depart mentcf Commerce not concerned w t h weat her and cl i mate

research and devel opment .

11-11



Ear l i er i n t hi s r epor t t here has been di scussed t henat ure of m ni mum r egul at or y act i on whi ch may berequi red on the part of t he nat i onal Gover nment t o

assure the i nt egr i t y of exper i ment s conduct ed by

Federal agenci es or t hei r gr ant ees and cont r act or s.I t shoul d be poi nt ed out i n thi s connect i on t hatFeder al agenci es and thei r cont r act or s and gr ant eest hemsel ves wi l l necessari l y be subj ect to some of

t he same t ypes of r egul at i on t hat appl y t o commer ci aloperat i ons. A Feder al agency f i el d exper i ment i n-vol vi ng l ar ge- scal e cl oud seedi ng f or exampl e, cancause the same i nt er f er ence wi t h other schedul edexperi ment s as can cl oud seedi ng conduct ed by a

commerci al operator.

Consequent l y, Feder al agenci es wi l l need t o besubj ect t o many of t he rul es and r egul at i ons i ssuedby the t ype of r egul atory uni t r ecommended above.I nsof ar as t he regul at i on i nvol ves requi r ement s of

not i ce of exper i ment s, l i censi ng of act i vi t i es andt he l i ke, t her e woul d seemt o be r eason why al lFederal agenci es shoul d be subj ect theret o. The

regul at i ng agency shoul d al so have t he power t oresol ve mnor conf l i ct s bet ween agenci es, such as

t he preci se t i m ng of par t i cul ar exper i ment s. Anymaj or di sagr eement s woul d i nvol ve pol i cy and adm ni s-t rat i ve coor di nat i on as di scussed bel ow

c. I nt er - Agency Coor di nat i on of Pol i ci es and Pr ogr amAct i vi t i es

The Comm ssi on r ecommends t hat t here be est abl i shed

w t hi n t h e Of f i ce of Sci ence and Technol ogy (OST) aspeci al mechani sm f or t he coor di nat i on of weat her and

cl i mat e modi f i cat i on programs and f or r ecommendi ngsuch st eps as may be appr opr i at e f or ef f ect i ng a

uni ty of gover nment al pol i cy i n t hi s f i el d.

11-12



I f t he gener al vi ssi on of devel opi ng t he technol ogyf or cl i mat e modi f i cat i on i s assi gned t o a si ngl e

agency, pr esent over l ap and l ack of concer t ed ef f or tamong the var i ous agenci es w l l be r emedi ed t o a

consi der abl e extent . Due t o t he gr eat i mpor t anceof t he f i el d, however , and because of t he necessi t y

of mai nt ai ni ng an i nt er di sci pl i nary and i nt er nat i onalappr oach t o weat her act i vi t i es, i t i s bel i eved t hat

cont i nui ng at t ent i on must be f or t hcom ng f r omt he

Execut i ve Of f i ce of t he Presi dent . Consequent l y,

some mechani smconcerned sol el y wi t h weat her andcl i mat e modi f i cat i on, w t h emphasi s on t he devel op-

ment and oper at i onal si de, needs t o be est abl i shed

wi t hi n t he OST. The OST' s concern shoul d embrace

f undi ng, basi c r esear ch, appl i ed resear ch, devel op-ment , t est i ng and eval uat i on. Such a mechani sm coul d

t ake over f rom I CAS t he weat her and cl i mate modi f i ca-

t i on component s. I CAS coul d cont i nue t o be concerned

wi t h atmospher i c research.

d. An Advi sory Comm t t ee

The Comm ssi on al so recommends t he ut i l i zat i on of t he

Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences and the Nat i onal Academy

of Engi neer i ng f or cont i nui ng r evi ew and advi cer egar di ng the nat i onal program of weat her and cl i mat emodi f i cat i on.

Both t he Presi dent ' s Sci ence Advi sory Comm t t ee and

t he Congr ess need t o be abl e t o obt ai n sci ent i f i c andpubl i c pol i cy advi ce f roma group of know edgeabl e

peopl e f romout si de t he Government . Thi s need coul dperhaps be met by t he appoi nt ment of a st andi ng

comm t t ee i n t he Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences i n

cooper at i on wi t h the Nat i onal Academy of Engi neer i ng.Such a comm t t ee i ncl udes persons wi t h exper i encei n t he physi cal sci ences, engi neer i ng, t he bi ol ogi cal

sci ences and the soci al sci ences.

11-13



Report to the

Interdepartmental Committee on Atmospheric Sciences

----PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS

OF FEDERAL AGENCIES IN

W EATHER-CLIMATE MODIFICATION

June 20, 1966

Prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather Modification

APPENDIX 111111-



FOREWORD

This report w a s prepare d by t h e ICAS Se le ct Pan el on Weather

bdi f i ca t ion for cons idera t ion by the In te rdepar - t anenta l

Committee on Atmospheric Sciences as requested by the

Chairman a t t h e k y 13, 1966, meeting.

summary of th e goals, program approach and f a c i l i t i e s of

th e Fed eral Departments and Agencies engaged i n weather andc l imate modi f i ca t ion ac t iv i t i e s f o r FY 1967 and FY 1970. A

b r i e f summary sta tem en t by each Department o r Agency i s a l s o

included t o supplement the budgetary material.

It present s a budget

Attention i s i nv i t e d t o t he fo ll ow ing po i n t s o f i n t e r e s t

i l l u s t r a t e d b y t h e matrix presenta t ion .

1. The primary emphasis of t h e Fed eral goa ls i n

weather mod if ica t ion appears t o be i n the

category of precipi ta t ion modif ica t ion.

FY 1967FY 1970

$4.70 mil l ion out o f $9.33 m i l l i o n t o t a l'$99.60 mi l l i on ou t o f $146.83 m i l l i o n t o t a l

2. The la rg es t percentage and ove r-al l incr ease s

from FY 1967 t o FY 1970 i n weather mo difi cati on

are planned by ESSA and the Bureair of Reclamation.

ESSA - $1.55 mi l l i on in 1967 t o $59.70 mi l l i on

Bureau of Reclamation - $3.00 million i n 1967

i n 1970

60 $70.00 mi l l i on i n 1970

3. The .Department of Agriculture i s planning t o

support a reas ona bly broad-based weather

mod if ic at io n program by FY 1970 (from '$0.5 mi l l i on

t o $9.35 mil l ion ) expanding in t o h a i l suppression,

biological aspects , and boundary layer exchange.

4. The Department of Defense i s holding level and w i l lnot expand s ig n i f i ca n t ly un les s a mission break-

through i s imminent.

5. Field experiments show as one would expect--veryexpensive.

/--c&..A.j 9 ~ ( / L + - - +* 4-L-Earl G . Droess ler

Chairman, ICAS S e le c t Panel

on Weather Modification .

June 20, 1966111-2



Agency

AGRIC .

ESSA

D O D

BUR.

I i E C .NSF

NASA

FAA

TOTAL

- - 0.015 0.140 -- - 1.700 1.000 -

0.100 0.300 0.140 0.180 0.660

0.400 27.100 5.200 4.900 12. 200

0.930 - - 0.0% 0.210

1.030 - - 0.110 0.240

- 3 OOO

- 70.000

0;200 1.400 o 700 0.200 0.200

0.500 2.500 1.650 0.500 0.750

1.430 4.700 0.855 0.610 1.070

3.030 99.600 8.550 6.510 13,190

0.115 0.495 -3.250 9.350 -

- 1.380 0.170

0.700 57.600 2.100

- 1.230 0.056

- 1.380 0.060

01

-

-

3.000

- 70.000

100 3.000 0.2141.000 7.400 0.500

- 0.070 -- 0.150 0.020

0.020 0.150 -- 0.950 -

0.235 9.325 0.434

4.950 1.46.830 2.680

i nc l udes boundary layer studies and remote sensing.

# i nc l udes cl imate modif ica t ion s tu dies and cumulus modif ica t ion.

111-3



Agency

A G R I C .

ESSA

D OD

BUR.

mc .

NSF

NASA

FAA

T O T A L

h Jl3 AT HE R P D D I F I C A T I O N P R OG R A M A PP R O A C H -- (mi l l ions1970

0..275 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.0453.910 0.450 0.185 0.500 0.695

0.830 0.150 0.035 0.100 0.18039.350 11.450 1.050 4.950 1.050

0.730 0.180 0.030 0.170 0.1200.810 0.200 0.040 0.190 0.140

2.009 0. 102 0.186 0.090 0.365

45.000 4, 500 7.000 1.500 9.000

1.500 0.700 0.050 0.575 0.0754.000 1.000 0.200 0.800 0.400

0.005 0.030 - 0.030 0.0050.070 0.030 - 0.010 0.040

5.349 1.182 0.321 0.935 0.92093.140 17.630 8.475 7.950 11.325

-I-'

dm a ,

- P om d

5 %

qa

-0.360

0 . I551.150

--

0.213

2, 000

--

--

-0.950

0.3684.460

W

0.115 0.4953- 250 9.350

0.100 1.5500.700 59.700

- 1.230- 1.380

0.035 3.000

1.000 70.000

0.100 3.0001.000 7.400

- 0.070- 0.150

0.020 0.150

- 0.950

0.370 9.4955.950 148.930

111-4



Agency

AGRIG .

ESSA

DOD

BUR.R E G .

NSF

NASA

FAA

TOTAL

1967

1970ACILITIES FOR WEATIER MIDIFICATION --

n .

- 0.060 0.070 0.040 0.030 0.035 0.005 0, 010 - 0.250

- 0.220 0.350 0.950 0.300 1.880 0.100 0.200 - 4.000

0.050 0.020 0.200 0.050 - 0.075 0.050 - 0.010 0.455

8.000 13.100 .91.300 4.400. 2.600 2.000 0.800 - - 42.200

0.040 0.060 ?$o.300 0.020 0.010 o . i io 0.050 - - 0.590

0.050 0.070 3t0.330 0.020 0.010 0.130 0.060 - - 0.670

- 0.250 0.015 0.500 0.015 0.020 0.060 - - 0.8601.250 6.000 0.500 2.000 3.000 0.750 1.000 1.500 - 16.000

0.200 0.080 0.045 0.165 0.070 0.080 0.012 0.085 - 0.737

0.500 0.250 0.100 0.300 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.200 - 1.600

- 0.010- - - 0.010 - -- - - - - 0.015 - - - 0.015

- 0.015- 0.090- - 0.010 0.005 - - - -- - 0.040 0.050 - - - -

0.290 0.470 0.640 0.780 0.125 0.330 0.177 0.095 0.010 2.9179.800 19.640 12.620 7.720 6.010 4.875 2.010 1.900 - 64.575

i nc lude s r e s ea r c h a i r c r a f t o n l y .

111-5



DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

WEATHER MIDIFICATION PFUIGRAM FOR FY 1967

The Department of Agriculture i s performing o r planning weather

modi fi ca t ion research i n f iv e majo r f i e l ds :

(1) Lightning suppression(2) H a i l suppression

( 3 )( 4 ) Boundary layer energy exchange

(5 )

Biological responses t o weather modif icat ion

Remote se nsing i n suppo rt of weather modifi catio n

Present Program.

(1) Liphtning Suppression. Pr oj ec t Skyfire of the U. S. Forest

Service i s performing an ac ti ve res ea rch program aimed a t suppression

of l igh tni ng. Fi el d experiments are t e s t i n g t h e e f f e c t s of v e ry

heavy seeding with s i l ve r iod ide on l ig htn ing storms.

t o da te show th a t seeded clouds produced 1/3 fewer cloud-groundst ro ke s than non-seeded clouds.

m o s t .l i ke l y t o i g n i t e f o r e s t f i r e s ha s a l s o been i d e n t i f i e d .

Physical and mathematical models of mountain thunderstorms arebeing developed.

The resul ts

The type of l ightning discharge

*

(2) 'Hail Suppression. The main ac t iv i ty i s prel iminary planning ofa lon g range re se arc h program.

of h a i l damage to a gr ic ul tu ra l crops and re la te d resources .

S ta t i s t i c a l s tud ies a re be ing made

( 3 ) Biological Responses t o Weather Modification . The Fo re st Serv ice

and Agricul tural Research Service a re engaged i n ecolog ical st ud ie sgiv ing considerat ion t o indiv idua l spec ies under a l imited range of

cl imatic parameters.

both fores t and farm b io log ica l communities i n r e l a t io n t o sp ec i f i cfeatures of weather and climate.

These s tu di es a re developing information on

( 4 ) Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The Department of Agr ic ult ure

has had long and productive rese arch re la te d t o boundary-layerenergy exchange. These st u d ie s concern th e energy response of

evapotranspirat ion.

re la t ions hips under spe ci f i c a tmospheric s i tu at i ons .

(5 ) Remote Sensing i n Support of Weather F bd if ic at io n. The Fores tService and Agri cu ltu ral Research Service a re performing res ea rc h

f o r development of knowledge and techn ology i n remote s en sin g asapplied t o ag r i cu l tu ra l and fo re s t ry programs.

support development of t h e weather mod ific ati on r es ea rc h program.

Airborne infrared scanners are being used t o provide information on

f i r e s , vegetat ion, topographic features and background thermal radiat ion.

Advanced photograph ic tech niqu es ar e bein g developed. Plan ning i s

underway f o r an expanded research program f o r remote sensing of biomasschanges on ag r i cu l tu ra l and fo re s t l ands and dete ct ion of c r i t i c a l

Limited s tu di e s a r e underway of energy exchange

P a r t of t he a c t i v i t i e s

changes i n boundary-layer energy exchange re la ti o ns .

111-6



DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L m

WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970

(1) Lightning Suppression. On the foundat ion of the resul tsstemming from Pr oj ec t Skyfir e, the Fore st Ser vice i s planning a

strengthened research program including :

( a )of a la rg er area, in ten sif ica t io n of measurement of l i gh t n i ng

discharges, and del ive ry of l a rge r qua n t i t i e s of s i lver- iodide

t o storms sel ect ed f o r t reatment. Research w i l l be stepped

up on the development of higher output s i l v e r iodide g enera tors

f o r use on a i r c r a f t and a t ground stations.c a p a b i l i t i e s will be increased t o permit simultaneous seeding

of two o r more cloud systems i n i n s t m e n t e d t e s t areas.

Expanded field experiments will permit instrumentat ion

Experimental

(b) More inten s ive inve s t igat i on of the a l ready id en t i f ie d

l i gh t n i ng s t roke most l i ke l y t o i gn i t e f i r e s and of thephys ical processes for i t s modification i s planned.

lab ora tor y experiments w i l l acce le ra te inves t iga t ions of t h e

modi fi cat ion of the e lec t r i c a l s t ruc ture of simulated clouds

wi th f reez ing nuc le i .

Strengthened

(2) Hail Suppression. A resea rch program con sist ing of fo ur major

a c t i v i t i e s i s proposed: (1) The Forest Service, ut i l izing technologyalready developed by Pro jec t Skyfi re , would i n i t i a t e b as ic s tudie s of

hai lsto rm phenomena and f i e l d experiments i n th e seeding of hailst orms ;(2) Ag ric ul tu ra l Research Service would undertake stu di es of t he

relat ionships between hails torms and the 'production and quali ty ofagr icu l tura l c rops ; ( 3 ) Economic Research Service would examine

t h e socio-economic a sp ec ts of hailstorms; and ( 4 ) Cooperative StateResearch Serv ice would e st ab li sh a grant program f or h a i l r es ea rc h

wi th un ivers i t i e s .

( 3 ) Bio lo gic al Responses. The research program proposed wouldprovide a cen t ra l ly coord inated e f f or t d i rec ted a t meeting the

gla r in g def ic ie nci es i n ecological knowledge.

weather i s t o be modified, n at u ra l communities would be s el ec te df o r stu dy and permanent p lo t s estab lish ed i n them. Communities

would be chosen t o represent th e f u l l range of environments and

major community types i n the area and espec ia l ly i n extremeenvironments.

and a f t e r a period of weather modification t o determine specie s

changes.and observed i n natu ra l areas unaffected by weather modification or

by other of m a n ' s a c t i v i t i e s .

t o cer ta in ins ec t pes ts , weed species , species near the limits oft h e i r r ange , and t o s o i l fauna and flora.

be sought.

In an area i n which

Detailed observations would be made before, during,

S imi la r p lo t s i n similar si tuat ions would be established

Par t ic ula r a t te nt io n would be given

Ind ica tor spe cie s would

111-



I

2

The proposed program would include computer simulation studies.

The research plan woilld include a continuing comprehensive .analysis

of prec ip i t a t ion da ta t o determine i f a measurable heneficial o r

detrimental effect occurred anywhere within the system.t h e r e woul d be comprehensive control led ecological s tudies on the

ef fe ct on vegeta t ion of di f fe re nt amounts and pat ter ns of pre cip i ta t io n.

Concurrently,

( 4 ) Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The e f f e c t of changing t h e

amount of advected energy through weather modification upon the

p roce ss es a t t he l e a f - a i r i n t e r f a c e w i l l be evaluated and proceduresdeveloped t o minimize th e e f f e c t of spreading droughts, o r t o t ak e

advantage of be ne f i t s from weather modification.

Microclimate co nt ro l measures W i l l be developed t o reduce evapo-

t ransp i ra t ion , t o conserve s o i l mois ture rese rves , and t o assureadequate photo synthetic ac t i v i t y of cropped and fo re ste d are as.

The effects of weather modif ica t ion on di f fus ion and eddy’t ransfer

processes th a t ar e respons ible f o r the exchange o f carbon dioxide,

water vapor, and he at between le a f su rfa ce s and th e atmosphere w i l l

be c!.arif ied .

( 5 ) Remote Sensing . Research w i l l be conducted to:

(a ) Develop technology t o determine ecologic changes of p a s t

20 yea rs re la te d t o ina dve rten t weather modif icat ion. Modernseqi lent ial a e r i a l photography compared with e a r ly photography

can provid e some pre-weather mo di fic ati on base s fo r measuring

czlrrent and future trends.

(b)mu lti sca le remoie sensing which s t a r t s a t t he mil a cre p l o t

and scal es upwards t o sa te l l i t e- sc al e high resolu t ion remote

sensing.

Develop scaling laws and change detecting systems by

(c)i n biomass and i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t r e n d s i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

s ig ni f ic an t t o energy-balance.

Develop technology o f detect ing and measuring trends

111-8



ESSA'S PLANNED INEATHER M3DIFICATION RFSEARCH PROGRAM FOR FY 1967

Research planned by the Department of Commerce Environmental ScienceServices Administration during f i s c a l year 1967 w i l l be d i rec t ed

t o an expanded " i n house" and con tra ctu al program of instrument

and equipment development, f i e l d measurements and~exp eriments , labo rato ryinve st iga t ions , the ore t ic al modeling o f cloud physics processes,

and establishment of a bench mark program of d at a c ol le ct io n re la te d

t o inadvertent weather modif icat ion. An expanded exploration of the

st ru ct ur e and dynamics of hur ric an es through experiments designed t o

i nq u ir e i n t o t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of storm mod ifica tion by susta ined and

massive se edin g technique s i s programmed i n co lla bor ati on with th e

U. S. Navy ( P r o j ec t STORIQLJRY).

The conceptual foundat ions fo r h a i l suppression or modif icat ion

will be exaiiined through use of a newly c onstm cted mobile ha i l

laboratory operated by the ESSA Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry

Laboratory recent ly es tabl i shed a t Boulder, Colorado. A s e r i e sof surface and ai rb or ne measurements and experimen tg will be car r i ed

ou t nea r Fl ag st af f, Arizona, during July and August 1966 i n coopera t ion

wi th the U. S. Army lig ht ni ng suppression re se arc h proj ec t.

experiments incorpo rate chaff seeding techniques and the ef fe ct s of

t h i s on cumulus c l o u d e l ec t r i f i ca t i o n wl l be assessed on th e ba si s

of ground le ve l and ai r c r a f t survei l lanc e of a tmospher i c e l ec t r i ca l

parametcrs. Instrument and equipment development w i l l include a

rain drop spectrom eter, a irbo rne humidity and temperature sensing

devices, and th e construct ion o f an a i r c r a f t mounted system f o r

rele as in g lar ge quan t i t i es of hydrophi lic substances f o r a l t e r i n g

th e na tu ra l population of condensation nuclei .

A se r i e s o f f i e ld exper imen ts i nt ended to c r i t i c a l l y st il dy the

precipi tat ion augmentat ion and redist r ibut ion problem i s being

planned wi th par t icu lar reference to the Northeastern U. S. and

Great Lakes region as a follow-on research program recommended by

the National Academy of Sciences, Panel on Weather and ClimateModification.

t o c l a r i f y t h e v e r t i ca l and h or i zo n t a l d i f f u s i o n of s i l v e r i o di d e

released from ground generatmrs.and laboratory researeh will heavily emphasize cloud nucleation problems

and th e r o l e of pr ec ip i ta t i on formation and growth mechanisms i n al te r i n gcloud dynamics o r processes i n i t i a l l y under t ro pi ca l convect ive regimes.

Problems of inadvertent weather modification w i l l be approached by

es t ab l i sh i n g a sustained standardized carbon dioxide monitoring program

i n i t i a l l y a t the remote h igh al t i tude &una Loa Observatory i n H a w a i it o p rov ide .a bench mark series o f data .

The

The program w i l l include f ield experiments designed

Theoretical modeling experiments

111-9



ESSA’S P L m D hTATHER MIDIFICATION ElESEELRCH PROGRAM FOR FY 70

F i s c a l ye ar 1970 i s the middle year of the proposed ESSA five-year

weather modification program.

reaching fu l l operat in g s trengt h, and th e expenditures f o r heavy

capital equipment w i l l reach a peak dur ing t h i s year.phase of t h e e f f o r t w i l l have been under way for the previous two

years , and i t i s t o be hoped t h a t experimental ap pli cat io n of ‘modificat ion techniques could begin i n most are as.

The major f i e l d pro jec ts w i l l be

“he exploratory

Documentation of the c loud and pr eci pi t a t i on s t r uc tur e dur ing

both winter and summer months w i l l have been achieved over mostof th e experimental s i t e s , and experimental seeding operat ion swill be under way prim ari ly by a i r c r a f t , f o r est ab lis hin g optknum

techniques f o r pr ec ip it at io n co ntr ol . Ground-based randomized

seeding a t s e ve r al s i t e s w i l l be continued. Explora tion of severe

storms--hurricanes, tornadoes, hailstorm s--will continue, di re ct eda t th e establishm ent of mo difi catio n hypotheses. Experimentaltreatments w i l l be employed as app rop riate . The kackground res ear ch

e f f o r t will continue, with emphasis on la bo ra to ry stu die s, computer

simulat ion, and field observations and experiments .dynamic modeling w i l l represent an expanding effor t , wi th the creat ion

of more sophisticated models as computer ca pa bi l i t i es increase .

Instrment development will continue a t an acce lera t ing pace, wi th

emphasis on radar , a i r c r a f t equipment, and th e concept and development

of e n t i r e l y new approaches t o cloud and atmo spheric measurements.

Studies of future operat ional system concepts will b e i n i t i a t e d .

Large-scale

The major out lay i n new fa c i l i t i e s would continue t o be i n the

purchase of a i r c r a f t .

program tw o a dd i t i ona l P-3 (E l e c t r a ), wo add i t i on al execut ive

type, and one heavily s tressed m i l i t a r y a t t a c k a i r c r a f t , a r e s chedule d

f o r 1970.cons t ruct ion of a t l e a s t tw o la rg e- sc al e cloud chambers wollld be gi n

dur ing t h i s ye a r. Also, i f the des i rab i l i ty of a new na t iona ll abora tory wer e e s ta b l is he d , c ons truc ti on of t h i s f a c i l i t y would

a l s o be undertaken. Fi el d s i t e instrumentation would be continued,

p r i ma ri l y t o f i l l ou t planned complements, and t o i n s t a l l new typeso f equipment which had been developed during the f i r s t tw o years of

the program.

According t o th e proposed ESSA fiv e-y ear

With completion of d esi gn st u di es, t , i s planned that ’

111-10



DEPARTIBNT OF DEFE;NSE WEATHER M3DIFICATION PRI)GRAM FOR FY 1967

DOD's i n t e r e s t i n weather modification i s no t a general across the

board in te re s t i n weather modif ica t ion as a science o r even i n the

broad improvement i n technology.

par t i cu la r sc ie n t i f i c and technologica l a reas th a t have d i r ec t

app lica t io n t o th e improvement o f D O D ' s c a pa b i l i t y f o r c ar ry i ngout i t s mission.

It i s r a th e r an i n t e r e s t i n those

The main thrus t of the DOD e f f o r t i n weather modificat ion can be

divided in to four m a j o r problem areas. These are:

WARM FOG

The problem of warm fog and stratus receives the m a j o r emphasisi n th e DOD weather modi fic ati on program due t o i t s widespreadoccurrence and i t s adverse e ff ec t on so many mi l i ta ry operat ions.

Although a number of approachs have been made i n atte mp tin g t od i s s i pa t e warm fogs and one technique involving the applicat ion

of vast quanti t ies of heat has demonstrated a measure of successthe re i s a t prese nt no economically and ope rat ion ally f ea si bl e

method av ai la bl e f o r gerleral use. The major po rt io n o f the DODe f fo r t s i n t h i s a r e a a r e t he re fo re d i r ec t ed toward ga in ing a

be t te r understanding of the l i f e cyc le of warm f q gs i n terms of

physical parameters the knowledge of which w i l l be necessary t o

develop feas ible diss ipat ion techniques .

SEVERE STORM I B D I F I C A T I O N

The need f o r fin din g a way t o moderate the in te n si ty of t h e most

v i o l e n t forms of nature i s obvious. The m o s t ambit ious at tack on

this problem i n which WD i s involved i s k h e j o i n t DOD-DOC programfor experiments on hurricane modification known as P ro j e c t STORMFURY.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

The two a re as of i n t e r e s t jus t discussed account for 80% of the

funds devoted by DO D t o weather modificat ion.

i n t e r e s t i s th e broad t op ic of convective clouds.

in te re s t n ot only because of i t s associat ion with severe stormsbut also because i t i s the dominant type o f a c t i v i t y i n t r o p ic a lregions where much of D O D ' s area of operations i s centered.

Another area o f

This i s of major

C O L D FOG

This ac t i v i ty accounts f o r only 5% of the research ef fo r t mainly

because i t has moved in to op era tio nal use i n DOD. Research i s

continuing, however, on more ef f i c i en t modif ica tion techniques

such as t h e use of propane gas or t he t r a ns por ta t i on o f d ry i c e

by small balloons.

111- 1



2

Associated with these problem area s and necessary t o t h e i r ev entual

solut ion i s th e work being car rie d ou t i n cloud physics and

instrumentat ion development i n re po rt o f more general problems

i n th e a tmospheric sc iences .

D E P ~ T M E N TOF DEFENSE WEATHER MIDIFIGATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970

The DOD weather modification program i s funded under a le ve l ef f o r t

concept and unless a major t echnol ogi cal . br eakthr ough i s achieved

o r a c r i t i c a l unforeseen need ar is e s th e program should remain a tits present l eve l .

severa l yea rs due t o the genera l inc rease i n co s t of l iving which

a t t h i s time amounts t o between 3-4% per year but no major expansion

of the program i s planned a t present .

Dol lar amounts may increase over the next

111- 2



BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER M3DIFICATION PROGFUM FOR FY 1967

Fie ld experiments comprise the la rg es t port io n of th e Bureau's

e f fo r t s , both\ i n t h e and money.regimes w i l l cont ime i n South h k o t a and Arizona.

precip i ta t ion regimes w i l l cbntinue t o be s tud ied i n Cal i fo rn ia ,Washington, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,and Wyoming, with equipment and instrument installations continuing

i n some a reas .

Studies of summer precipitationWinter

Laboratory experiments, while n ot large i n terms of t h e and money,re pr es en t an important p a r t of our program. Programs are underway

t o s tudy the behavior of a r t i f i c i a l nuc le i when int roduced in to the

cloud base; t o f ind be t t er ways t o detec t see2 ing mater i a l i n

p r ec i p i t a t i o n as an aid i n evaluating seeding ef fect iveness ; and

t o continue th e development and refinement of telem eteri ng pr ec ip it at io n

gages

.Tn eo re t ica l and s t a t i s t i c a l s t u d i e s w i l l continue t o be supported a tthe South Dakota School of Mines, 'U nive rs ity of Nevada, Aerometric

Research, nc. , T a f t College, Fresno State College Foundation , Colorado

S ta te University, Naval Ordnance Test Stati on, U. S. Fores t Serv ice ,

U. S. Weather Sureau, and W . E . H o w e l l Associates.

inclviie mathematical modeling of cloud and precipitation processes,

ev al ua tio n techniques, new seeding agents and dev ice s, and cloud and

storm climatology.

These studies

Development of technology i s a n a t u r a l outgrowth of the research

e f f o r t s . The Bureau w i l l continue i n FY 67 t o develop seedingtechnology for cap clouds, summer cumulus and winter orographiccloud systems, and emphasis w i l l be exe rt ed t o ex p l o i t t h e cap a b i l i t i e s

of cu rr en t instru men tation and equipment (rad ar, f o r example).

Systems developnent w i l l become an inc rea sin gly important p a r t of

the program.of Reclamation wl l conti nue work i n t h i s area, with valuable as s i s t an ce

from co ntr ac tor s on th e de t a i l s of t h e components.

e f f o r t s w i l l be directed towards increasing knowledge of data

gat her ing and processing during FY 67.

During FY 67 the Denver Office staff of th e Bureau

I n p a r t i cu l a r ,

111- 3



BUREAU OF RECLAMATI ON WEATHER M DI FI CATI ON PROGRAM FOR FY 1970

I n FY 70 f i el d exper i ment s will cont i nue t o be the ar ea of gr eat estef f ort , and i t i s ant i ci pat ed t hat r esear ch acti vi t i es w l l haveexpanded to i ncl ude t he ent i r e nat i on.

t hat some areas, per haps one i n t he East and one i n t he West , w l lhave pi l ot pl ant oper at i onal pr ograms.w i l l be cont i nued st udi es of the f eas i bi l i ty of redi str i but i ngpr eci pi t at i on as par t of t he tot al wat er r esour ces devel opment oft he nat i on.at hi gher l evel s of ef f or t . However , a f ew may be t er m nat ed asanswer s t o speci f i c pr obl ems are f ound. I t i s ant i ci pat ed t hatmaj or st eps f or war d w l l be t aken i n gr ound- t o- gr ound and ai r - t o- groundt el emet r y oper at i ons and al so i n est abl i shi ng a nat i onw de weat herr adar sur vei l l ance net wor k t o ai d i n det ect i ng seedi ng oppor t uni t i esand eval uat i ng r esul t s.

By FY 70 i t i s expect ed

Among the maj or i nvest i gat i ons

Most of t he f i el d exper i ment s of FY 66wi l l be cont i nued

W t h the avai l abi l i t y t o t he progr am of maj or cl oud chamber f aci l i t i esacqui red i n pr i or year s, i t i s ant i ci pat ed t hat many of t he unanswer edquest i ons of cl oud and pr eci pi t at i on pr ocesses can be i nvest i gat ed.Ot her probl ems di scover ed as a resul t of previ ous work w i l l cont i nuet o r ecei ve at t ent i on i n FY 70.to cl oud seedi ng, i ndi r ect i nf l uences, such as soci o- econom c andbi ol oTi cal f actor s, w i l l be examned.

I n addi t i on t o st udi es di re, ctl y r el at ed

Devel opment of t echnol ogy w l l be pr oceedi ng at a hi gh pace i n vi ewof t he expandi ng progr amwill be made t oward devel opi ng an "oper at i onal manual " f or sever alar eas of t he nat i on.

I t i s expected t hat consi der abl e pr ogr ess

Syst ems devel opment wi l l col i t i nue t o recei ve maj or at t ent i on dur i ngFY 70.will r ecei ve i ncr easi ng suppor t as t he pr ogr am i n atmospheri c waterr esour ces progresses.

Studi es i n pr oper management of r esearch and operat i onal progr ams

111- 4



N A T I O N A L SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATIONPROGRAM FOR FY 1967

I n FY 1967, e f f o r t s will be made t o build on th e pre se nt competence

ava i l ab le i n un ive rs i t i e s and o ther appropr ia te in s t i tu t io ns and t oencourage cooperat ive ef fo rt s between smaller groups t o pool t h e i r

ta lents and provide mutual support i n which combined e f f o r t s can bemade t o y ie ld much gr ea te r impact. The Hailswath P r o j e c t i n which

22 separa te research groups are pool ing th e i r e f fo r t s toward t he

common goa l of hai l suppress ion research a t a s p e c i f i c l o c a t io n i s

an example of t h i s type of cooperative research.

Cooperative arrangements on a smaller scale between the s t a f f s of

d i f fe r en t un ive rs i t i e s t o supplement t a l en t s are also beingencouraged by the National Science Foundation.

ve n t u re s a r e t he t e s t i ng of new nucleating materials developed a tLehigh Universit y by th e University of Chicago f i e l d pr oj ec t Whitetop,

the t es t i ng of ul t rapu re s i lv er iodide produced by the Univers i tyo f Arizona i n t he c a l i b r a t i on f a c i l i t y of the Colorado State

Universi ty, and the operat ion of a r a d a r f a c i l i t y a t Chadron StateCollege by the research team from the South Dakota School of K n e s .

The ro le of the National Science Foundation i n bringing toget her

diverse research ta lents into cooperat ive research teams i s v i t a li n developing t h e t al en te d manpower resou rces needed f o r the future ,

and w i l l i n s u r e t h a t a c r i t i c a l size of e f fo r t can be a t t a i ne d t obe e f f e c t i ve .

Typical cooperative

Incre asing em ph asi s 'is being made t o supplement th e op era tio nal"know-how" of th e f i e l d re se arch o r operat ional pr oje ct with the

t e c hn i c a l and t he o re t i c a l s k i l l o f t he t r a i ne d un i ve r s i t y s c i e n t i s t .

The recent grant t o th e North Dakota St at e College t o as s i s t and

ev al uat e - th e Bowman-Slope Hail Associa t ion effor ts on hai l suppress ion

i s an example where both groups w i l l be ne f i t by t h e i r mutual h t e r f q c e .

Wherever p os si bl e, commercial op era tor s a r e being encouraged t o incorporate

research aspe cts i n to t h e i r commercially sponsored seeding pro jec ts .Recent contracts with Wallace E. Howell Associates t o sc ie nt i f ic a l ly

evaluate the s a l t seeding of warm clouds over t h e Vir gin Is la nd s and

with Atmospherics, Inc . t o eva luate the e f fec t iveness of t h e i r s eed ing

program i n t he Kings River drainage basin i n Ca lifor nia a re examples

o f t h i s e f f o r t .

The i n i t i a t i o n of in te re s t i n weather modifica tion i n u n i v e r s i t i e s

where competence may grow i s a l s o a goal of t h e National ScienceFoundation program. In FY 1966, e f fo r t s were i n i t i a t e d a t Chadron

St a te College, i n Nebraska, North Dakota S t a t e College i n North Dakota,and a t th e Univers ity of Washington, i n Se at tl e, t o germinate new sources

of competence which w i l l produce th e t a len t f o r the f u ture .

'

111- 5



2

The growing i n t e r e s t i n the so ci al , economic, le ga l , bio log ica l and

ecological impacts of weather modif icat ion created by the recent

r e p o r t o f th e Nation al Science Foundation Spe c i a 1 Commission on

Weather Modification i s being fostered by the formation o f the Task

Group on Human Dimensions f o r Weather b bd if ic at io n a t the Nat ionalCenter f o r Atmospheric Research and by a grant wi th the Univers i ty of

Missouri t o study the socio-economic impact of weather and climate

modification.

emphasis by th e Nat ional Science Foundation i n the futu re.

This i s a f i e ld of research which w i l l receive increas ing

111-16



N A T I O N A L SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAMFOR FY 1970

I n FY 1970, i t i s ant ic ipate d t h a t many of t h e s m a l l u n i v e r s i t y

research groups w i l l f i n d i t advantageous t o combine t h e i r e ff o rt s

i n t o l a r g e r r e se a rc h teams i n o rd er t o approach the study of the

atmosphere i n s i t u r a the r t han i n the l abora tory .increased capab i l i t y f o r mo b i li t y i n f i e l d o p er a ti on s i n o r de r t oachieve th e i r resea rch goals. This may well be provided by at t ac hin g

research teams t o ex i s t i ng f i e l d weather mod if i cat ion opera t iona l

p r o j ec t s a l r ead y i n ex i s t ence , o r by a povl ing of a i rcraf t , vehicle ,

radar and ground network equipment by a number of u n iv e rs it y groups.

This w i l l requi re

I t i s an t i c i p a ted t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a few l a r ge - s cal e f a c i l i t i e s

funded fo r t he t es t ing of modification schemes.

might be th e susp ension of a s pr ay nozzle over a va l le y betweentwo mountain peaks t o produce cloud-sized dr op le ts i n t o which

e l e c t r ic a l charges can be introduced i n e i t h e r pol ar i ty , contamban%s,

can be introduced, and the drop size spectrum can be adjustec! t oany reasonable di st r ib ut io n. Under NSF sponsorship, a la rg e a i r c r a f t

or blimp hanger may a l s o be converted i n t o a fog chamber f o r te s t i ng

w a r n fog d iss ipat ion techniques .

Typical schemes

Research w l l s t i l l con tinue i n univer s i ty l abo ra to r i es on bas i c

problems re le va nt t o understanding atmospheric processe s, and

"small science" hopeful ly wl l continue t o be supported along with

th e e f f o r ts of "b ig science." Emphasis w i l l be increased on the

mathematical modeling of the atmospheric processes and on the

techniques f o r sim ulatin g modification processes on th e computer

before tes t ing them i n the atmosphere.

Increas ing a t t en t io n ' wi l l be pa id t o the problem of making measurements.

i n the atmosphere.

for th e design of standardized instrumentat ion and cal ib ra t io n

techniques which w i l l be made available to the scientific community.

NSF w i l l support s tudies by qual i f i ed engineer s

By FY 1970, th e approach t o t h e problem of th e soc ia l , economic,le ga l , bi ol og ic al and eco logic al aspects of weather modif icat ion should

become su ff ic ie nt ly c le ar so t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t r e se a rc h e f f o r t s i n

these areas can be fostered and expanded,

will be equ a l ly d i f f i c u l t as t hose f aced by the phys ica l sc i e n t i s t i nweather mod ifica tion, b ut models and procedures w i l l evolve which w i l lre qu ir e major support of fi e l d evaluation st ud ie s and high-speed computers.

These w i l l be approached with in th e uni ve rs it y community and by l a r g e r

study groups withcap ab i l i t i e s .

t he mi l l i o n d o l l a r l eve l , of support .

The so lu ti on of t he se problems

commensurate r es ou rc es i n manpower and computer

By FY 1970, i t i s planned t h a t t h i s e f f o r t w i l l approach

111- 7



2

In general , by FY 1970 it i s v i sua l ized t h a t t h e t r a n s i t i o n of

weather modifi catio n from I' small science" t o "big science" w i l l

be w e l l on the way.

support of the un ive rs i ty researcher and h i s graduate s tudents

i n the f i e ld of bas ic a tmospher ic research i n weather modi f lcation .The matrix f i g u r e s f o r NSF i n FY 1970 are an es t imate of the needs

of th e non-government s c i e n t i f i c community.

NSF will continue to provide the major



N A T I O N A L AERONAUTICS & SPACE ADMINISTRATIONWEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGFLAM FOR FY 1967

NASA' s program i n weather m odi fic ati on i.n FY 1967 w i l l be pr imari ly

a continuation of th e e f f o r t being scpported under contr act with the

Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories , Inc . on the inv es t iga t ion o f warm

fog pro pe rt ie s and fog modification concepts.

This project t o da te has emphasized a na ly ti ca l and experimental

work on st ud ie s of th e micro and macroscopic pr op er ti es of warm fogs,

techniques f o r observing fog parameters, t he simulation of fog

conditions, the experimental modification of fog, and th e formulation

of mathematical fog models.

During FY 1967 laboratory inves t igat ions of fog dis per sa l by

e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n p r i n c i p l e s w i l l be continued. Proposed id ea s f o rproducing condensation nuclei w i l l be fur ther inves t igated and

laboratory experiments w i l l be conducted t o evaluate the concept

f o r prevent ing dense rad ia t ion fog. Nuclei measurements w l l becontinued on a d a i l y b a s is , and will be c or re la te d wi th measurements

taken on previous years.

111- 9



N A T I O N A L AERONAUTICS & SPACE ADMINISTRATION

WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970

I n FY 1970, i t i s planned t o continue the work a t the Cornel l

Aeronaut ical Laboratories i n war m fog research which will provide

the bas i s fo r d i s s ipa t ion t echn iques .

In the conduct of weather modif icat ion experiments, an i n s t m e n t e d

s a t e l l i t e v iewing th e a rea from above w i l l be extremely usef u l t o the

analys is o f t he modif i cat ion e f fo r t s .

would be able t o perform th i s support ac t i v i ty with even g rea t e r s k i l l .

Thus, observations f r o m space can be very he lpf ul i n conduct ing

experiments i n weather m odific ation .

A manned o bser ver i n space

Space launch vehicles pour out a tremendous volume of exhaust, gases

dur ing thei r act ive burning s tage.by severa l orde rs of magnitude th e q ua nt i t i es normally found i n the

atmosphere a t t hese l eve l s .

continuous study i n order t o i n su r e t h a t fu ture programs for launchingspace f l ig h t vehicles , both i n th i s country and by o ther count r ies ,w i l l not have a significant effect on the composition and motion of

the atmosphere.

exp lo re th i s a rea fu r thk r .

In quan t i ty, th e gases exceed

This si tu at io n must be ke pt under

NASA would be ple ased t o j o i n a s tu dy e f f o r t t o

NASA's ro le i n aeronaut ics and pa rt ic ul ar ly i n t h k development of

the supersonic t ranspor t natural ly involves i t i n th e over-a11 program

of severe storm predict ion and posstble modif icat ion and dissipat ion

of severe s to rms a r t i f i c i a l l y .

encourage th e ac ti ve programs t h a t would lea d t o an eventual cont ro l

of s t o r m s or other condi t ions af fect ing a i r c r a f t f l i g h t .

From this point of view, NASA would

111-20



FEDERAL AVIATION AGENCY WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1967

Although th e FAA maintains an in t e r e s t i n a l l aspects of weather

modification which may be applied t o fu r t he r i nc re a s i ng t he s a f e t y

of a vi at io n and/or t o prov iding more e f f e c t i v e movement of a i rcommerce, t h e p re se nt re se ar ch and development pla ns and programs

are focused on methods t o disperse fog f rom ai rpor ts .begins with a defini t ion of requirements , obta ining pre l iminary cos t

information regarding the economics of a system t o modify fo g a ta i rpo r t s , and de te rmining c r i t e r i a fo r the ex ten t of the appl ica t ion

of the system.

The program

The heat technique appears m o s t promising f o r f i e l d experimentat ion.

A preliminary economic.analysis i s scheduled t o begin i n l a t e FY 1966o r e ar ly FY 1967, with st ud ie s of t e s t design and system eff ect ive nes s

c r i t e r i a be in g c a r ri e d o u t i n FY 1967.

FEDERAL A V I A T I O N AGENCY WEATHER KIDIFICATION PRQGRAM FOR FY 1970

Studies o f system effect ive ness and tes t ' des ign carr i ed out i n FY 1967will r e s u l t i n th e procurement of experimental devices and the t es t i ngof these devices t o re f ine and ver i f y the c apa bi l i t i e s and l imi ta t ions

of a fog-dispersa l sys tem.

t o begin i n FY 1968, and reaching peak e f f o r t i n FY 1969 and FY 1970.Following t h i s period of i g t en s e f i e l d a c t i v i t y , t h e re w i l l be a decrease

i n resea rch and development ac t i vi ty as the engineering and operat ional

phases of th e program become more importa nt and arrangements a r e made

fo r ope ra t i ona l a pp l i c a t i ons t o proceed as planned.

Present plans c a l l f o r - f i e ld exper imenta tion



FE D E R A L COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE A N D TECHNOLOGY

INTERDEPA RTMENTA L COMMITTEB FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 2 0 2 3 0

J une 21, 1966

MEMORANDUM FOR DR. HOMER

Subj ect : Nat i onal WeatheT odi f i cat i on Pr ogr am

At i t s Si xt y- f our t h Meet i ng on J une 20, 1966 I CAS agreedto proceed w t h the deve1opm:nt of a Nat i onal WeatherModi f i cat i on Pr ogr amal ong t he l i nes del i neat ed i n therepor t of i t s Sel ect Panel on Weat her Modi f i cat i on of

the same date.

You are request ed to f ormul at e t hi s programw t h suchassi st ance as you may r equest f romany or al l I CASmembers. You are speci f i cal l y provi ded the assi st anceof a qual i f i ed weat her modi f i cat i on sci ent i st f r omeachof the f ol l ow ng agenci es: ESSA, Bureau of Recl amat i on,NSF, Depart ment of Agr i cul t ure.YOU are request ed to provi de at l east t hese t hr ee el ement si n the Program

1. Anal ysi s of a maj or program of weat her modi f i cat i onf or t he needed expansi on of act i vi t y t oward t he goal s off og and cl oud di ssi pat i on, preci pi t at i on modi f i cat i on,et c. as del i neat ed i n t he Sel ect Panel Repor t and towardsuch ot her goal s as you may want t o speci f y.

2.i ng act i vi t i es as comput er s, mobi l e f aci l i t i es, etc.

Anal ysi s of the techni ques t o be used and such support -

3 . Def i ni t i on of what agenci es shoul d car ry out t he

act i vi t i es recommended, f i r st as to r esponsi bi l i t y f or t heprogram (budget support ) , and second as t o actual l y con-duct i ng the act i vi t y. I f you ar e unabl e t o recommendspeci f i c al l ocat i on of responsi bi l i t y your recommendat i onsf or t he sol ut i on of t he probl em shoul d be i ncl uded.

IV-1

APPENDIX IV



2

I believe the following documents provide substantivebackground information that would assist you. Copies

are enclosed.

ICAS Memo to Dr. Hornig dated March 11,. 1 9 6 6S. 2 9 1 6 as amended May 12, 1 9 6 6BOB Circular A - 6 2 dated November 13 , 1 9 6 3The Federal Plan f o r Met orological Services

and Supporting Researc FY 1 9 6 7f

IV-2



NASA P A N EL T O S TU D Y W EA TH ER M O D I F I C A T I O N A C T I V I T I E S

M E M B E R S H I P

CHRONOLOGY O F M E E T I N G S

C O M P I L A T I O N O F S U P P O R T I N G

M A T E R I A L U S E D B Y T H E P A N E L

A P P E N D I X V

V - l



PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES

Membership

Homer E. Newell, Associate Administrator for Space Science

and Applications, NASA Headquarters, Chairman

J Allen Crocker, Deputy Director, Program Review and

Resources Management, OSSA, NASA Headquarters

Leonard Jaffe, Director of Applications, OSSA, NASA

Headquarters

Ernest A . Neil, Senior Staff Assistant, Project Directorate,Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)

William Nordberg, Assistant Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheric

and Biological Sciences, GSFC

Nelson W. Spencer, Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheric and

Biological Sciences, GSFC

William C. Spreen, Meteorology and Soundings Program Chief,Space Applications Programs, OSSA, NASA Headquarters

Morris Tepper, Director of Meteorology, Space Applications

Programs, OSSA, NASA Headquarters

v-2



PANEL T O STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES

Chaired by H o m e r E. N e w e l l

Asso c ia t e Ad m in i s t r a to r f o r Space Science & A p p l i c a t i o n sNASA H eadquar te r s

Chronology of Meetings

2 1 Ju ne 1966, NASA H e a d q u a rt er s

Rece i p t of Hollomon m e m o d a t e d 2 1 June 1966 g iv ing

ass ignment t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l , and th e o r g a n i z a t i o n

o f a P a ne l t o a s s i s t N e w e l l

27,28 June 1966, NASA H q s

P a n e l b r i e f i n g s b y De pa rt me nt o f I n t e r i o r , Depar t -

ment of Commerce, Dep ar tm en t o f Ag r i c u l tu r e , Na t io n a l

Sc ienc e Foun dat ion , Bureau of t h e Budge t, and O ff ic e

of Science and Technology

2 8 June 196 6, NASA H q s

Execu t ive P a n e l s e s s i o n

1 J u l y 196 6, NASA H q sP a n e l b r i e f i n g by D r . E a r l Droessler

26 Ju ly 1966, NASA Hqs

Pane 1 s t a f f m e e t i n g

15-18,25 August 1966, GSFC

P a n e l s e s s i o n s w i t h A g r i c u l t u r e , I n t e r i o r , ESSA, NSF

6 Se ptem ber 19 66 , NASA H q s

Pane1 meet ing

7 September 1966, GSFC

Ad h o c s e s s i o n

V-3



9 September 1966, OST

Report t o Hornig, OST

2 1 , 2 6 September 1966 , NASA H q s

A d hoc s e s s i o n s

28 September 1 96 6, NASA H q s

Panel meeting

v-4



Panel t o St udy Weat her Modi f i cat i on Act i vi t i es

Chai r ed by H E. Newel l

Suppor t i ng Mat er i al Used by t he Panel

OVERALL

1.

2.

3 .

4.

Memorandumf or Dr. Homer E. Newel l f r omJ . Herber t

Hol l omon, Chai r man, I CAS, Subj ect : Nat i onal Weat her

Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr am dat ed J une 21, 1966

Report prepared by t he I CAS Sel ect Panel on Weat her

Modi f i cat i on PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS OF FEDERAL

AGENCI ES I N WEATHER- CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ON, dat ed

J une 20, 1966

Fi nal Repor t of t he Panel on Weat her and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on t o t he Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences,

Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l

WEATHER AND CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ON, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS,

Vol ume I - SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATI ONS, Vol ume I T- RESEARCH

AND DEVELOPMENT, Publ i cat i on No, 1350, 1966

U.S. Senat e Bi l l ( S. 2916 - 89t h Congr ess) t o be pr oposed

by Magnuson, t o pr ovi de f or a weat her modi f i cat i on pr ogr amto be car r i ed out by t he Secretary of Commer ce, May 12,

1966, Ref er r ed t o t he Comm t t ee on Commerce

DEPARTMENT OF AGRI CULTURE

5.

6.

7.

U . S . Depar t ment of Agr i cul t ur e present at i on t o Newel lon J une 28, 1966

Weat her Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr amAnal ysi s

Summary of Weat her Modi f i cat i on Research Pr ogr am

Statement of T. C. Byer l y, Adm ni st r at or , Cooperat i ve

St at e Resear ch Ser vi ce, Uni t ed St at es Depar t ment of Agr i -

cul t ur e, on S. 2916 bef or e t he Comm t t ee on Commer ce,

U . S . Senat e, on March 7, 1966

V- 5



8. U. S . Dept. of Agr i cul t ur e Forest Servi ce A SUMMARY OFPROJ ECT SKYFI RE dated Sept ember 1, 1966, transmtted byl et t er t o Cr ocker f r omJ . S. Bar r ows, Di r ect or , For est

Fi r e Research, dat ed Sept ember 6 , 1966

DEPARTMENT OF I NTERI OR

9. WATER RESOURCES I N THE S K Y , St ewart L. Udal l , Bul l et i n

Amer i can Met eor ol ogi cal Soci et y, Vol 47, No. 4 , Apr i l1966, pg 275-278 ( Speech present ed at t he 46th AnnualMeet i ng of t he AMs, Eveni ng Banquet , 26 J anuar y 1966,

Denver , Col or ado)

10. Present at i on t o I CAS on May 13, 1966, PLANS FOR THE DEPART-MENT OF THE I NTERI OR' S ATMOSPHERI C WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM

11. Dept. of I nt er i or, Manpower Requi rement s and Cost Est i -mates ( f r omSept 1966 Pl an Repor t )

12. Est i mat es of Faci l i t i es and Maj or Equi pment and Ser vi cesi n suppor t of t he Dept , of I nter i or ' s Pr ogr amrecei ved

16 August 1966

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

13.

14 .

1 5.

Dr af t SUMMARY OF I NFORMATZON RELATED TO MR . CROCKER FROM

FERGUSON HALL dated August 26, 1966, r egardi ng ESSA man-power requi r ement s rel at ed to Weather Modi f i cat i on

ESSA Weather Modi f i cat i on Progr amRevi ew f or Newel 1 onJ une 2 8 , 1966

Out l i ne of A PROPOSED FI VE- YEAR PLAN I N WEATHER MODI -

FI CATI ON, U S. Depar t ment of Commer ce, Envi r onmental

Sci ence Ser vi ces Adm ni st rat i on, Apr i l 1966; w t h

ATTACHMENT: FI SCAL AND MANPOWER REQUI REMENTS w t hAddendumFI SCAL AND MANPOWER DATA FOR 1966 AND 1967

ESSA Weat her Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr amSchedul e, Fi scal

Years 1967-1970

V-6



16 .

17 .

18.

Present at i on by t he Deput y Feder al Coordi nat orf or Met eorol ogi cal Ser vi ces & Support i ng Research( Moore)

THE FEDERAL PLAN FOR METEOROLOGI CAL SERVI CES ANDSUPPORTI NG RESEARCH, FI SCAL YEAR 1967, U.S.

Depart ment of Commerce, Envi r onment al Sci enceSer vi ces Adm ni st r at i on, Of f i ce of FederalCoordi nat or f or Met eor ol ogi cal Servi ces andSupport i ng Research

Summary papers of ESSA present at i ons at t he WeatherModi f i cat i on Revi ew meet i ng, GSFC, August 17, 1966

NATI ONAL SCI ENCE FOUNDATI ON

19 . Report of t he Speci al Comm ssi on on Weather Modi f i ca-

t i on, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on, WEATHER AND CLI MATE

MODI FI CATI ON, Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-3, t ransmt t ed t oNSF December 20, 1965

20. Repor t t o t he Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,

Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on, WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON LAWCONTROLS, OPERATI ONS, Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-7 (no date)

21. Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on Act of 1950 ( PL 507-81st

Congress) As Amended Through August 15, 1963 , and asModi f i ed by Reorgani zat i on Pl an No. 2 of 1962, Ef f ec-t i ve J une 8 , 1962

22. Fi r st Annual Repor t , 1959, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,

WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 60-24

23. Second Annual Repor t , 1960, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,


24. Thi rd Annual Report , 1961, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,


v -7



25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

3 3 .

Four t h Annual Report , 1962, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,


Fi f t h Annual Repor t , 1963, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,


Si xt h Annual Repor t , 1964, Nat i onal Sci ence FouI . , ~+U,,


Sevent h Annual Repor t , 1965, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,


Proceedi ngs of THE SEVENTH I NTERAGENCY CONFERENCE ONWEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, Sept ember 30 - Oct ober 1, 1965,

Bi g Meadows Lodge, Skyl i ne Dr i ve, Shenandoah Nat i onalPar k, Vi r gi ni a

Repor t of t he FI RST NATI ONAL SYMPOSI UMON HAIL SUPPRES-

SI ON. Di l l on, Col or ado, October 14-15, 1965

HUMAN DI MENSI ONS OF WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, W R. Der r i ckSewel l ( Ed) , U of Chi cago, Dept of Geogr aphy, Res Paper

No. 105, 1966 ( Papers prepared i n connect i on wi t h aSymposi umon t he Economc and Soci al Aspect s of WeatherModi f i cat i on whi ch was hel d at NCAR i n Boul der , Col or ado,

f romJ ul y 1-3, 1965, under NSF sponsorshi p)

PRESENT PROGRAMAND FUTURE PLANS OF THE NATI ONAL SCI ENCE

FOUNDATI ON I N WEATHER A N D CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ON RESEARCH,

Revi sed J une 27, 1966

Let t er t o Dr . Newel 1 f romP. H Wq’ ckof f , dat ed J une 28,

1966, r egardi ng t he NSF Weat her Modi f i cat i on Progr amwi t h encl osur e, “Cr i t i que by Pr esent er ”

V-8



BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS AND TRENDS

for a

National Weather Modification Program

APPENDIX VI

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