Weather Forecasting

Weather ForecastingEportfolio assignment 2 met 1010-044 Jayelle HegewaldThe forecastI gathered the first map on Sunday evening, September 30 at 2300, with an effective time of 1200 on Tuesday, October 2 at KSDF, the airport code for Louisville, KY.

The resultConditions at:KSDF (LOUISVILLE , KY, US) observed 1156 UTC 02 October 2012 Temperature:17.2C (63F) Dewpoint:15.0C (59F) [RH = 87%] Pressure (altimeter):29.67 inches Hg (1004.8 mb)[Sea-level pressure: 1004.6 mb] Winds:from the SSE (160 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s) Visibility:10 or more miles (16+ km) Ceiling:1500 feet AGL Clouds:overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL Weather:no significant weather observed at this timeThe result When I checked back in 48 hours, it appeared that there were no significant weather disturbances during the time frame forecasted on the map (Tuesday 1200) that I collected on Sunday evening. The resultThe available Doppler and infrared data that I found were past the effective time of noon, and were into the next day, universal time. However, according to the data I collected, there was observable weather and precipitation, but it happened about 15-17 hours after the forecasted weather. The Doppler and Infrared data show that a small amount of measurable precipitation was actually calculated at about 5 AM on October 3, while the 48 hour forecast had forecasted the precipitation for noon the previous day.

Forecasting toolsDoppler radarinfrared

reflectionReflection:As a result of completing this assignment, I have learned how to read a few of the tools that meteorologists use on a daily basis. Watching the news reports on TV has a whole new meaning now, and it is a little easier to give the meteorologists a break when they are wrong. It is a hard job to be able to determine when and where weather will hit based on the information that is available. There are many factors which can influence the outcome of a weather system, and from this exercise, I feel that I understand those factors more fully.