Columbia, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

5/16/2018 10:37 AM

Weather Briefing

Central South Carolina and the Central

Savannah River Area of Georgia

Columbia, SC Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

5/16/2018 7:24 AM

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is time sensitive.

Always refer to our website at weather.gov/cae for the latest information.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Moisture will be high through early next week. A southerly flow from the tropics will be directed into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered well off the East Coast.

There will be numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical moisture may help support thunderstorms with heavy rain and localized flooding. There may also be river flooding late this week through early next week.

There may be enough instability during the afternoons for a few thunderstorms with damaging wind.

Highlights

WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY

Lightning

Severe Thunderstorms

Heavy Rain/ Flooding

Strong Winds

Heat

Fire Weather

Snow

Hazards Outlook

Limited Elevated Significant Extreme None

This morning’s weather map showed high pressure centered well off the East Coast. A trough extended from the southern Appalachians into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The flow of air into the forecast area originated in the Caribbean Sea. The moisture combined with heating will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Current Conditions

H

Little change in the pattern will occur Thursday and Friday with a moist south flow continuing.

Thursday, May 17th Friday, May 18th

Saturday, May 19th Monday, May 21st Sunday, May 20th Tuesday, May 22nd

We are forecast to remain in a moist south flow from the tropics through early next week. Expect continued elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms.

The convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center noted diminished chances of significant coverage of severe thunderstorms through Friday. Widespread showers should help limit instability but there will likely be a few areas with significant breaks in the cloudiness allowing greater instability. A few locations may have a thunderstorm with damaging wind.

General Rainfall Forecast Ending 800 AM Saturday, May 19th.

We are forecasting general rain totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches over the next 3 days. Greatest amounts will likely be in the north closer to a surface trough. We have not posted a flash flood watch for now thinking flooding will be too localized. Storm movement and the recent dry period should help prevent a more widespread and significant event. Also, the more likely heaviest amounts may remain north of the area focused near a surface trough.

General Rainfall Forecast Valid 800 AM Saturday, 5/19/18 to 800 AM Monday, 5/21/18

General rainfall over the

weekend into Monday is

forecast to be around 0.75 of

an inch. The band of deepest

tropical moisture may be

shifted just east of the area.

Based on the forecast of

rainfall in the headwaters of

the river basins, we believe

any river flooding would be in

the minor category.

Summary

A Wet Pattern Through Early Next Week.

Will need to watch out for possible localized flooding because

of tropical moisture in the area. River flooding may also be a

concern late this week through early next week.

There may be enough heating to help cause moderate

instability. A few afternoon thunderstorms with damaging

wind will be possible through early next week.

Web:

http://weather.gov/cae

Phone (public):

(803) 822-8135

E-mail:

NWS.Columbia@noaa.gov

Facebook:

NWSColumbia

Twitter:

@NWSColumbia

Briefing Available At: http://weather.gov/media/cae/LatestBriefing.pdf

Briefing Webpage: http://weather.gov/cae/briefing.html