Wealth Accounts IWR 2014 - UN ESCAP · 2015. 1. 30. · 11.10.2013 1 Wealth Accounts in the IWR 2014 1 IWR 2012: Twenty countries which represented 72% of the GDP and 56 % of the

11.10.2013

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Wealth Accounts in the IWR 20144

1

IWR 2012: Twenty countries which represented 72% of the GDP and 56 % of the Population

2

11.10.2013

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140 countries: 99% of the GDP and 96 % of the Population

3

Change in Inclusive Wealth per capita for the year 2010 (base year = 1990)

4

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3


Tha

iland

IWI 30%

5

T

GDP 95%


Tha

iland

IWI 30%

6

T

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4

100

120

Change in IWI with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nta

ge

30% Change in IWI

7

(40)

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index

100

120


(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Produced Capital

8

(40)

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10


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5

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

‐

10

20

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Perce

ntage

Investment growth rates

100

120

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nta

ge

9

(40)

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10


100

120


(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Produced Capital

IWI

Human Capital

10

(40)

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10


Natural Capital

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6

100

120


(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Produced Capital

IWI Human Capital: Edu: 5.5 yr to 7.5 yr

11

(40)

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10


Natural Capital

Change in Natural Capital with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)

-

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

Pee

rcen

tag

e

12

(70)

( )

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Agricultural Land Forest Fisheries

Fossil Fuels Minerals Natural Capital Index

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Composition of Wealth(average 1990-2010, in %)

32

14

45

32

0

Percentage Composition of Natural Capital(average 1990‐2010, in %)

13

53

Produced Capital Human CapitalNatural Capital

23

‐

Agricultural Land Total Forest Fisheries Fossil Fuels Minerals

Thank you

14

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+ +

Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries

+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc

Minerals

Bauxite Nickel Index

Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital

Bauxite Nickel

+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries

Forest resources + Timber

Non‐timber forest resources

Adjusted

Inclusive Wealth

Index

Inclusive W

ealth

15

Agricultural Land + Cropland

Pastureland

Factors that

affect IW

I (1) Carbon Damages

(2) Oil capital Gains

(3) Total Factor Productivity

O i IWR 2012Overview on IWR 2012: Methods and datasets

Pablo Muñoz

UNU IHDPUNU‐IHDP

Paris | April 2013

11.10.2013

9

+ + Produced Capital

Inclusive Wealth Index

Human CapitalNatural Capital

=

17

+ +

Fossil fuels Education Equipments

Produced Capital


Human CapitalNatural Capital

=



MineralsBauxite Nickel

+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

18

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

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10

+ +

F il f l Ed ti E i t



=




+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

19

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

+ +



=




+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

20

Iron Tin

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

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Fossil Fuels and Minerals

Rental Price


Fossil Fuels

Rental Price

Fossil FuelsOilNatural GasCoal

MineralsBauxiteCopperGoldGoldIronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc

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Fossil Fuels

Rental Price


MineralsBauxiteCopperGold

Physical stock estimates were based on reserves and production data:Gold

IronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc

production data:Stock t-1 = Stock t + Production t


Sectoral rentalFossil Fuels

Rental Price

Sectoral rental rates (%)

Avg. International market prices of resource i.


MineralsBauxiteCopperGold

Physical stock estimates were based on reserves and production data:Gold

IronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc

production data:Stock t-1 = Stock t + Production t

Data Sources: United States Energy Information Administration (EIA); British Geological Survey; United States Geological Survey (USGS); World Bank; BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Narayanan and Walmsley (2008).

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Sectoral Rental R

Fisheries

Rates.

Prices per tonnefrom the total landing value and quantity of the Sea Around Us Project.

Proxi: Weighted (by quantity) price of those species reported by the Sea Around Us Project.

* Available stock of fisheries within countries’ fishing areas from the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database.* The total biomass is expressed in tonnes.

Data sources: Sea Around Us Project (2011); Sumaila et al. (2005); Narayanan and Walmsley (2008), RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database - Richard et al. (2012).

+ +



=




+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

26

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

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. 5 . . . . dt

Human Capital Framework in the IWR

• Human capital (HC) is defined as:

0

• Term I: HC is a function of educational attainment (“Edu”) and the additional compensation over time of this training, ρ.

Term I

Where average years of total schooling is used as a proxi of Educational attainment and obteained from Barro and Lee (2010) database.

Education: percentage change (1990‐2008) in the average years of total Schooling

41

44

47

66

China

India

Germany

Brazil

16

16

17

18

19

23

24

24

29

33

37

38

C d

Norway

United Kingdom

Russian Federation

Chile

Nigeria

Colombia

South Africa

Kenya

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

France

Saudi Arabia

28

4

6

11

15

16

‐ 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Australia

United States of America

Ecuador

Japan

Canada

Percentage in Avg. Years of Total Schooling

Average years of total Schooling: BRA=7.4 USA=13.02

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15

. 5 . . . . dt



0

• Term II: Population of the country who reach the years of total education, “P”.

Term I Term II

Source:United Nations PopulationSource:United Nations Population Division (2011);

. 5 . . . . dt



0

• Term III is obtained by computing the present value of the average labor compensation per unit of human capital, “r”, received by workers over an entire life’s working period, T.

Term I Term II Term III

Where:

r: Conference Board (2012);United Nations Statistics Division (2011a); OECD; National Stadistics Agencies.

T: United Nations Population Division (2011); World Health Organization; (2012); International Labour Organization (2011)

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Expected number of working years remaining for the average adult, T

14

14

14

d

Saudi Arabia

France

Germany

20

19

19

18

17

17

17

16

16

16

16

15

15

15

B il

Nigeria

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Chile

United States of America

Colombia

Norway

Canada

India

Australia

Japan

United Kingdom

South Africa

Russian Federation

“T” is obtained by using the following demographic inputs by ‘age group’ and ‘gender’: population, mortality rates, and participation in the labor force.

29

23

21

20

‐ 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Kenya

Ecuador

China

Brazil

Expected number of working years remaining, T, for the average adult in Japan

17.5

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

32

13

13.5

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

11.10.2013

17

. 5 . . . . dt



0

. 5 . .

0

. . dt

Term I Term II Term III

0

Break Down of the changes in Human Capital(HC) for Brazil

60

20

30

40

50

ange

with Respect to 1990

Term I: Change in HC per Adult

Term II: Change in Relative Population

Change in HC per capita

34

0

10

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

% cha Population

Term III: Change in NPV

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Break Down of the changes in Human Capital(HC) for Japan

15Term I: Change in HC per

0

5

10

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

ange

with Respect to 1990

g pAdult

Term II: Change in Relative Population

Change in HC per capita

35

‐10

‐5

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

% cha

Term III: Change in NPV

+ +



=




+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

36

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

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19

We based our calculations on the perpetual inventory method (PIM) by setting an initial capital estimate.

Produced Capital (PC)

PC1 = Initial capital estimate(K0) + Invesment1 ‐ Ko Depreciation

0 1 11

Produced

Capital

Investment

37Time

Ko

*Changes in Inv*Depreciation

0/

Depreciation rate

30

40

Venezuela

-20

-10

0

10

20

Pe

rce

nta

ge

38

-40

-30

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital IWI

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20

9060 000

Investment in Venezuela

VENEZUELA

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

l Pri

ces

(us$

200

0/b

erre

l)

Mill

ion

s o

f U

SD

39

-

10

20

-

10,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Oil

+ +

F il f l Ed ti E i t



=




+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

40

Lead Zinc

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

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21

+ +

Fossil fuels Education Equipments Longevity


Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital Health Capital

=

Fossil fuels Education Equipments LongevityOil Machinaries



+ Copper Phosphate

Gold Silver

Iron Tin

Lead Zinc

41

+ Fisheries




Pastureland

42

11.10.2013

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Thank you!

43

e-mail: [email protected]

Documents

Wealth Accounts IWR 2014 - UN ESCAP · 2015. 1. 30. · 11.10.2013 1 Wealth Accounts in the IWR 2014 1 IWR 2012: Twenty countries which represented 72% of the GDP and 56 % of the