Wealden Economy Study Update 2013- 2028 · 1.1 Regeneris Consulting was commissioned by Wealden District Council to undertake a review of the Economy Study delivered in December 2016

Wealden Economy Study Update 2013-

2028

A Final Report by Regeneris Consulting

March 2018

Wealden District Council

Wealden Economy Study Update 2013-

2028

March 2018

www.regeneris.co.uk

Wealden Economy Study Update 2013-2028

Contents Page

1. Wealden Economy Study 2013-2028 4

2. Evolving Wealden Context 6

3. Future Growth Scenarios 3

4. Conclusions 16

Appendix A - Method for Translating Jobs Growth to Employment Land Need


4

1. Wealden Economy Study 2013-2028

1.1 Regeneris Consulting was commissioned by Wealden District Council to undertake a

review of the Economy Study delivered in December 2016. The key difference between

the 2016 study and this one is the proposed Local Plan period. Whilst the previous

study looked at a Plan period from 2013 to 2037, this update looks at a shortened

period from 2013 to 2028.

1.2 The reasons for a shorter Plan period are discussed in more detail below, however

environmental constraints to delivery are identified as the primary reason. Following

a review of the key proposals for the district and wider sub-region, it was suggested

that a number of critical developments could not be delivered before 2028. This meant

that Wealden District Council has had to review the targets set out in the Issues,

Options and Recommendations Consultation paper1, and a decision was taken to

progress with a shorter Plan period.

1.3 In addition to looking at a shorter Plan period, this paper also provides an update to

the employment land needs identified in the previous study, to reflect changes in the

overall economic context at the local, regional and national levels. Please note that

this report has not been subject to duty to cooperate consultations, and therefore

remains in draft format.

1.4 Regeneris Consulting Ltd. is a specialist economic development and regeneration

consultancy providing high quality economic research to both public and private

sector clients in the South East and the United Kingdom.

1 Wealden District Council, ‘Wealden Local Plan: Issues, Options and Recommendations Consultation’, October

2015.


5

Structure of the Report

1.5 The remainder of the report is structured as follows:

• Section 2 looks at the evolving Wealden context and includes a brief

description of the district’s functional economic market area (FEMA), an

overview of the key policy developments influencing this study, and a brief look

at the district’s socio-economic context.

• Section 3 draws on the evidence presented in the previous section, and the

latest economic and population forecasts to provide a series of growth

scenarios for the district between 2013 and 2028.

• Section 4 sets out a series of recommendations for employment land

requirements in the Wealden District for the period to 2028.


6

2. Evolving Wealden Context

2.1 This section of the report provides an overview of the current social and economic

context within the Wealden District, and focusses particularly on changes occurring

since the December 2016 study was finished.

Functional Economic Market Area

2.2 The December 2016 study highlighted that there is no standard approach to defining

a place’s FEMA, and identified several factors that could be considered, including

travel to work areas; housing market area; the flow of goods; services and information

within the local economy; administrative areas; catchment areas for facilities providing

cultural and social well-being; and the local transport network. A review of a number

of key indicators shows the following:

• The district continues to have strong commuting flows with Eastbourne to the

south, and Tunbridge Wells to the north, in addition to Westminster and the

City of London, Lewes, Crawley, Mid Sussex, as well as Brighton and Hove.

• The district’s housing market has a very strong connection with many of its

surrounding districts, including Mid Sussex, Lewes, Eastbourne, Tunbridge

Wells and Rother.

• Similarly, house prices in the district are in line with those for the surrounding

areas, and are characterised by a north-south divide, with areas in the northern

half (eg. Uckfield, Mayfield and Crowborough) having higher median prices,

than areas in the south (eg. Heathfield, Hailsham, Polegate and Willingdon).

• In addition, the district’s housing market also supports the concept of the

London commuter belt housing market, showing lower median house prices

than in London, but relatively high commuting flow to the capital.

• Although now somewhat dated, the 2011 Census of Population indicates that

the district’s housing market is relatively self-contained (defined as at least

70% containment), and identifies strong migration (both in and/ or out of the

district) between Wealden and other local authorities within its housing market

area.


7

• Wealden District is located within the administrative boundary of East Sussex

County Council, and forms part of the South East Local Enterprise Partnership

(SE LEP). In its Strategic Economic Plan2 (SEP) the LEP identifies several growth

corridors, and locates the district as forming part of the A22/ A27 Eastbourne-

South Wealden growth area which includes Eastbourne, Lewes, Hailsham and

Uckfield.

2.3 Taking all the evidence above, and that highlighted in the December 2016 study, we

are of the view that the District’s FEMA remains the same as that identified in the

previous study. This was defined as consisting of Wealden, Tunbridge Wells,

Eastbourne, Lewes, Mid Sussex and Rother. Strong ties with Crawley and Brighton

and Hove were also identified (especially in terms of travel to work and migration

flows), however these were not as strong as the linkages with the districts identified

above.

Evolving Policy Context

2.4 This section looks at the evolving policy context, primarily changes in the local and

sub-regional context which have occurred since the December 2016 study was

completed.

Wealden District Council

2.5 Since publication of the December 2016 study, there have been several developments

within the local policy context, including changes to the proposed Local Plan to cover

a shorter period from 2013-28; this change was primarily the result of a number of

environmental constraints.

2.6 The table below highlights the key changes influencing housing policy, demand for

employment land, sector focus and infrastructure developments in the district as a

result of the changes to the proposed Plan period. Of key note, the table highlights

increased demand for additional housing in the district, but a decline in overall

employment land need, when compared with the Council’s 2015 Issues, Options and

Recommendations Consultation1 paper from October 2015.

2 The SE LEP’s Strategic Economic Plan is currently being reviewed.


8

Table 2.1 Key changes to the local policy context for Wealden District

Issues, Options and Recommendations

Consultation paper, 2015 Draft Local Plan, 2017 Key Points

Housing

• OAN for Wealden District is identified as

ranging from 660-736 dpa. (or 15,840-

17,664 total dwellings) for 2013-2037 period

• The requirement for testing for around

19,970 dwellings (or 832 dpa.) is also

identified

• Preferred option for testing is housing in

South Wealden along with improvements to

the strategic road network

• OAN for district is anticipated to be 11,456

dwellings (or 764 dpa) for shorter (2013-28)

Plan period.

• OAN for the district is identified as 14,250

dwellings.

• Considering delivery to date and

permissions granted, a target of 800 dpa. is

identified from 2016/ 17 onwards.

• Plans to concentrate growth within and

around urban areas in South Wealden,

especially Hailsham, Hellingly, Polegate/

Willingdon and Stone Cross.

• Housing numbers are impacted by several

constraints incl. waste water discharge issues

at Hailsham, Herstmonceux and Ninfield, the

need for transport improvements and

nitrogen deposition on the Ashdown Forest

• Decrease in the housing requirement for the

district

• Completions since 2013 and permissions

granted indicate delivery target of up to 800

dpa. for 2016/ 17 onwards.

• Strategic locations for housing growth

remain unchanged.

• Challenges as a result of environmental

constraints.

Employment

Land

• Employment land additions taken from the

Core Strategy in the 2013 Local Plan add up

to 40,000 sq. metres, incl. 13,000 sq. metres

in Uckfield, 9,000 sq. metres in Hailsham and

Hellingly, and 17,000 sq. metres in Polegate

and Willingdon.

• A total of 38,600 net additional sq. metres of

employment floorspace along the A22

corridor in Hailsham (30,000 sq. metres) and

Polegate and Willingdon (8,600 sq. metres)

is identified.

• Previous supply of employment land has

outstripped economic forecasts and

population growth resulting in a slight

reduction in overall employment land need.

• This results in a lower need for employment

land.


9

• However, strategic focus on the A22 corridor

is maintained.

Sectors

• Heavy reliance on the public sector, however

emerging opportunities within key

engineering sectors and health care are also

identified.

• Issues, Options and Recommendations

paper also promotes flexibility in the

Council’s approach to encourage emerging

sectors.

• Wholesale and retail, accommodation and

food, as well as human health and social

work are highlighted as key employment

sectors locally.

• It is acknowledged that tourism and

professional, scientific and technical sectors

are expected to be key drivers of growth

over a shorter Plan period.

• Draft Local Plan encourages diversification

within the economy to reduce reliance on

public sector employment and support

clusters in tourism, the manufacturing of

ultra-precision instruments, photonics and

optics.

• Consistency across strategies to encourage

flexibility and diversification within the local

economy.

• Focus on successful engineering and other

emerging sectors in addition to key

strengths within East Sussex.

Infrastructure

• Focus on public transport provision and

dedicated transport corridors such as

Eastbourne to Hailsham Sustainable

Transport Route to support development in

the South Wealden Growth Area.

• Proposals to set up an infrastructure fund to

assist in funding infrastructure.

• Key infrastructure requirements include

education provision, environmental

mitigation, and strategic transport measures.

• Significant investment in new infrastructure

to support wider developments within the

South Wealden Growth Area especially

improvements to the A27 and A22.

• Proposals for a new Infrastructure Fund.

• Consistency in focus on strategic transport

infrastructure

• Continued focus on A22 corridor, and the

need for dualling of the A27.


Appendix A - 1

East Sussex County Council

2.7 The East Sussex Growth Strategy3 has not been updated since the December 2016 study

was completed, and therefore the key messages remain the same:

• a vision for a more innovative, productive and faster growing economy by 2020;

• a focus on a number of growth corridors including the Eastbourne-Polegate-

Uckfield-Crowborough corridor (A22/ A26/ A27);

• key challenges resulting in overall low productivity for the County, including lower

than average wages, slower employment growth, and pockets of higher relative

deprivation;

• aspirations for the economy include unlocking key employment floorspace

allocated in Local Plans, increasing County-wide GVA per capita (by 20% by 2020),

and maintaining East Sussex’s higher than average employment rate; and

• enable business growth and capitalise on opportunities for growth in current and

emerging sectors and support business start-ups.

South East Local Enterprise Partnership

2.8 The South East Local Enterprise Partnership (SE LEP) is in the process of refreshing its

Strategic Economic Plan (SEP), and to support this it has produced an updated evidence

base4 for consultation.

2.9 The updated evidence base continues to promote rebalancing of the economy across the

South East region in favour of supporting higher value-added jobs (including the

knowledge economy, manufacturing and services). The evidence base also shows that there

is less reliance on the public sector than previously stated.

2.10 Overall, the LEP continues to support infrastructure improvements in the region, including

investment in the A22/ A27 growth corridor.

3 East Sussex County Council, ‘East Sussex Growth Strategy’, December 2014.

4 South East LEP, ‘SE LEP Strategic Economic Plan: Evidence Base’, September 2017.


Appendix A - 2

The Wealden Context

2.11 Based on the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, it is estimated that the

district has c. 48,000 employees which represents just under a fifth of total employment

within its FEMA. Between 2010 and 2016, overall employment in the district has increased

by around 9%, which is comparable with employment growth across the wide FEMA (+8%).

2.12 The district is currently home to around 8,500 businesses, which represents around 1-in-4

businesses located within the FEMA. Overall, the district’s business base has increased by c.

13% between 2010 and 2017, an increase comparable with that of the FEMA (at +15%),

albeit at a slightly lower rate.

2.13 As highlighted in the emerging Local Plan, the key employment sectors within the district

include wholesale and retail trade, human health and social care, as well as accommodation

and food services. However, a look at overall employment change since 2010 indicates that

growth in the district’s economy has been largely driven by ICT, the professional, scientific

and technical sectors, as well as administrative and business support services.

2.14 Meanwhile, employment in public administration and agriculture have both experienced

considerable decline between 2010 and 2016. This reflects structural changes within the

wider economy, and signals a shift towards higher-skilled professional services as promoted

by the Draft Local Plan and the East Sussex Growth Strategy.

2.15 Overall, the district’s population is highly engaged within the labour market, with high

economic activity rates (82%) especially when compared with the FEMA (81%). Despite the

high engagement, unemployment in the district (4.3%) remains higher than the average

across the FEMA (3.4%), and is the highest for all local authorities.


Appendix A - 3

3. Future Growth Scenarios

3.1 This section sets out a series of growth scenarios for the Wealden District, and focusses on

B-class employment floorspace and land needs. The approach used to generate projections

of future need follows the method used in the December 2016 study, which was in turn

based on the methodology specified by the Planning Practice Guidance (Methodology:

Assessing Economic Development and Main Town Centre Uses). As per the earlier study,

three approaches have been considered in the assessment of future employment land

needs to 2028, and include:

• employment-led scenarios based on sectoral employment forecasts;

• a past completions scenario based on the delivery of employment floorspace over

the past five-year (2012/ 13 to 2016/ 17) and ten-year (2007/ 08 to 2016/ 17)

periods; and

• labour supply approach based on how the local labour force is affected by the

proposed housing delivery in the district to 2028.

3.2 Please note that the assumptions used to inform this review are the same as those used in

the December 2016 study. A short description of the method used to derive employment

land need based on the three scenarios is included in the Appendix of this report. More

detail is available in the December 2016 report. As such, it is recommended that this note

is read in conjunction with the earlier work prepared on behalf of Wealden District Council.

Employment-led Scenario

3.3 This section considers the potential scale of employment land need within the District over

the 2013-28 period based on employment forecasts. Employment forecasts show future

changes in the number of jobs in different sectors based on a range of evidence, including:

• past trends at the national, regional and local levels in terms of gross value added

(GVA) and employment change;

• the share of jobs in different sectors in an area compared with national and regional

averages as a measure of concentrations of employment. This serves as a proxy for

sector strengths in terms of current and past performance;


Appendix A - 4

• forecast growth rates nationally and regionally taking account of government

projections and other sources to understand how the UK economy is expected to

perform in the future; and

• data on an area’s current population and labour force, as well as projected changes.

Forecasting models generally factor in projected change in an area’s workforce

(resident and in-commuting) which represents a constraint on the level of jobs

growth it might sustain in the future.

3.4 Population inputs to forecasting models are also reflected in the employment growth

forecasts for some sectors, specifically those (such as retail) in which demand from an area’s

population are a key determinant to the jobs they sustain.

3.5 In identifying employment land need based on future employment change, the December

2016 study drew on three key forecasting datasets. Similarly, this update makes use of the

same three models used in the previous study, with a few minor differences:

• Experian UK Local Market Forecasts: provides data on projected economic,

demographic, housing, unemployment and sector productivity. This update uses the

latest-available Experian UK Local Market Forecasts from December 2017.

• East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM): developed by local authorities in the

East of England and Cambridge Econometrics, this model is a widely-used source of

data on both employment forecasts and their housing implications. As in the

December 2016 study, this update uses the Autumn 2014 version of the EEFM which

is the latest version where economic forecasts for Wealden District are included.

• East Sussex Economic Forecasting Model (ESEFM): based on Cambridge

Econometrics and IER Estimates forecasts, from September 2014. These are available

only for local authorities in East Sussex.

3.6 The EEFM and ESEFM both date from the second half of 2014, which means that they were

generated under different economic conditions than those currently affecting the national

and regional economies. The earlier forecasts were prepared pre-Brexit at a time when

economic prospects looked more promising. Nevertheless, we believe that their inclusion

will provide continuity with the December 2016 study as well as additional context of

employment land need in the Wealden District to 2028.


Appendix A - 5

Comparison of Forecasts

3.7 This section provides a quick overview of past and future employment change according

to the three economic forecasts used. As well as modelling future change, the forecasts also

show the historic data on which the projections are based. The diagram below indicates

that overall, the Experian model forecasts lower employment numbers to 2028, and a lower

employment change from 2013 onwards, when compared with EEFM and ESEFM.

Figure 3.1 Comparison of past and future trends in economic forecasts, 2003-13 and

2013-28

Source: Experian, UK Local Market Forecasts, December 2017; Cambridge Econometrics, East of England Forecasting

Model, Autumn 2014; Cambridge Econometrics/ IER Estimates, East Sussex Economic Forecasting Model, September 2014

3.8 All three forecasts show an increase in total employment figures from 2003 onwards,

however they do not agree on the rate at which employment grew in the ten years to 2013.

Whilst EEFM and ESEFM both have an average annual growth rate higher than 1% (of +1.2%

and 1.4% respectively), the Experian model suggests a much slower growth rate (of +0.6%).

3.9 The three forecasts do not agree with regards to when employment in the district fell and/

or increased in the lead up to 2013. However, all forecasts agree that annual employment

change in the five years to 2013 was considerably slower than the ten-year average, with

the December 2017 Experian forecasts suggesting that between 2008 and 2013, only 200

jobs were created (or 40 jobs each year).


Appendix A - 6

3.10 Despite the disparity about how the economy of the district performed in the ten years to

2013, all three models agree that employment between 2013 and 2028 is expected to

increase by around 1% each year. The key difference between the three models is the

number of jobs added to the district’s economy each year. Whilst Experian indicates that c.

600 jobs are created each year, EEFM and ESEFM suggest a figure closer to 700 new jobs

each year (or +695 and +685 jobs per annum respectively).

Table 3.1 Total employment in Wealden District, 2003-13 and 2013-28

Total employment (000s)

Change

2003-13

Change

2008-13

Change

2013-28

'03 '08 '13 '28 pa. CAGR pa. CAGR pa. CAGR

Experian 54.0 57.3 57.5 66.5 +350 +0.6% +40 +0.1% +600 +1.0%

EEFM 52.7 59.5 61.5 72.0 +885 +1.2% +395 +0.7% +695 +1.1%

ESEFM 54.1 61.9 64.5 74.7 +1040 +1.4% +515 +0.8% +685 +1.0%

Source: Experian, UK Local Market Forecasts, December 2017; Cambridge Econometrics, East of England Forecasting Model,

2014; Cambridge Econometrics/ IER Estimates, East Sussex Economic Forecasting Model, September 2014.

Please note: annual employment figures are rounded to the nearest multiple of 5.

3.11 Figure 3.2 below provides an overview of how overall employment in the district is expected

to change between 2013 and 2028. It shows that the district’s economy is expected to be

driven by service-based sectors, including food and accommodation (+1,770 jobs) and

professional services (+1,040 jobs). The district is also expected to see an increase in public-

sector jobs, especially health and care services (+840 jobs) and education (+530 jobs).

Additional key sectors include construction (+550 jobs) and real estate (+420 jobs).

3.12 On the other hand, between 2013 and 2028, the district is expected to see a decline in

manufacturing (incl. -200 jobs in general manufacturing, and -90 jobs in food

manufacturing), business services (-250 jobs), and agriculture (-90 jobs).

3.13 When looking specifically at B-class jobs, growth in the district is expected to be driven

primarily by professional services, IT services (270 jobs), publishing and broadcasting (140

jobs) and electronics (90 jobs).


Appendix A - 7

Figure 3.2 Forecast jobs growth by sector, 2013 to 2028

Source: Experian, UK Local Market Forecasts, December 2017

3.14 Please note that all economic forecasts are subject to a large degree of uncertainty,

especially when dealing with local and sub-regional economies. Whilst we can take

reassurance from the fact that all three forecasts point towards a similar level of growth it

is important to note key differences, especially the economic conditions under which each

forecast was developed. The challenge is therefore to identify which forecast represents the

most plausible view of future prospects for the district.


Appendix A - 8

Estimating Employment Land Need

3.15 The table below indicates that overall employment in the Wealden District is expected to

increase by between 9,000 and 10,400 jobs between 2013 and 2028. As discussed above

employment in the district is expected to be driven, in part, by an increase in B-class

employment (incl. professional services, IT services, publishing and broadcasting and

electronics). This is evidenced by growth in the number of B-class full-time equivalent5 (FTE)

jobs in the district which is expected to range between 1,095 - 1,170 jobs.

Table 3.2 Total jobs and FTEs requiring B-class floorspace in Wealden District, 2013-28

2013 2028 Change

2013-28

B-class

FTEs

Experian 57,500 66,500 +9,000

(+16%) +1,130

East of England Forecasting Model 61,500 72,000 +10,400

(+17%) +1,170

East Sussex Economic Forecasting Model 64,500 74,700 +10,200

(+16%) +1,095

Source: Calculations by Regeneris Consulting Ltd, 2018.

Please note: Total jobs growth and B-class employment change listed in this table are not directly comparable as the former

refers to total jobs (ie. employees and self-employed) irrespective of whether jobs are full-time and/ or part-time, whilst the

latter refer to FTE employment.

3.16 Using typical floorspace per FTE employee estimates provided by the Homes and

Communities Agency6 (now Homes England), it is possible to estimate the level of

floorspace required to forecast (B-class FTE) employment change in the district between

2013 and 2028.

3.17 Table 3.3 below shows that all forecasts agree that demand for floorspace will be driven by

office-based sectors (B1a and B1b uses), resulting in the need for between 36,700-39,200

sq. metres of additional floorspace between 2013 and 2028 (or between 2,440-2,620 sq.

metres per annum). There is however less agreement about the need for manufacturing

(B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) space.

5 Full-time equivalent (FTE) is a unit that indicates the workload of an employed person. An FTE of 1.0 is equivalent to 1

full-time employee, whilst an employee working half the hours a full-time employee does, would be recorded as 0.5

FTE.

6 Homes and Communities Agency (now Homes England), ‘Employment Density Guide’, 2015.


Appendix A - 9

3.18 Whilst all forecasts agree that employment in manufacturing (B1c and B2) uses is expected

to decline (or remain unchanged), Experian and EEFM shows that between 2013-28, there

will be an overall increase of between 900-3,500 sq. metres (or between 60-230 sq. metres

each years). This is the result of a shift from industrial and manufacturing (ie. B2) to light

industrial (ie. B1c) uses, which despite some job losses will result in increased demand for

employment land7. On the other hand, ESEFM indicates that demand for manufacturing-

type space is expected to decline by c. 3,500 sq. metres over the same period.

3.19 Similarly, there is little agreement with regards to the need for distribution (ie. B8)

floorspace between 2013-28, with overall demand for B8 floorspace expected to range from

the loss of 4,800 sq. metres to an increase of 7,900 sq. metres (or the loss of 320 sq. metres

to increased demand for 520 sq. metres each year) between 2013-28.

Table 3.3 Floorspace requirement based on economic forecasts, 2013-28 (sq. metres)

FTEs Floorspace (sq. metres)

total pa. total pa.

Experian

Office (B1a & B1b) +1,140 +75 +39,200 +2,620

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) -60 -5 +900 +60

Distribution (B8) +50 +5 +5,000 +340

EEFM

Office (B1a & B1b) +1,230 +80 +36,700 +2,440

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 0 0 +3,500 +230

Distribution (B8) -60 -5 -4,800 -320

ESEFM

Office (B1a & B1b) +1,210 +80 +38,900 +2,590

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) -200 -15 -3,500 -230

Distribution (B8) +80 +5 +7,900 +520


Please note: Total FTE job numbers are rounded to the nearest multiple of 10, whilst annual FTE job numbers are rounded

to the nearest multiple of 5.

7 The Experian forecasts see overall manufacturing employment declining by 60 FTE jobs. However, this figure hides an

internal shift within our definition of manufacturing (defined as B1c and B2 uses) where the loss of c. 155 industrial

and manufacturing jobs (B2) are replaced by 95 light industrial jobs (B1c). The HCA’s employment density guide

assigns a higher floorspace requirement (of 47 sq. metres per FTE) to B1c uses when compared with B2 uses (of 36 sq.

metres per FTE). This explains why there is an increase in floorspace required despite no increase in jobs.


Appendix A - 10

3.20 The next step in identifying employment land need for 2013-28 is to translate the demand

for floorspace into overall land requirements. This is determined by the nature of

employment land development in the district in addition to the type of floorspace

delivered. This is based on typical plot ratios (ie. ratios looking at the relationship between

gross floorspace and total site area) for each B-class, land-use type. More detail on the plot

ratios used is included in the Appendix below.

3.21 The land requirements for each of the three economic forecasts in terms of office (B1a and

B1b), manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) uses are shown in the table below.

Whilst all forecasts agree on the need for additional land for office developments, there is

a slight disagreement on the quantum of land required, with a range of 3.67-3.92 hectares

identified.

3.22 Once more, there is a disagreement between forecasts with regards to the need for land

used for manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) uses. Whilst both Experian and

EEFM identify the need for 0.87 hectares of manufacturing land, the EFESM identifies that

c. 0.87 hectares of employment land will become surplus between 2013 and 2028. On the

other hand, both Experian and ESEFM identify the need for additional land for distribution

(B8) uses (ranging from 1.01-1.57 hectares), whilst EEFM indicates that overall demand is

expected to fall.

3.23 It is worth being reminded that EEFM and ESEFM are earlier forecasts (2014) and therefore

caution should be shown when referring to these. Focussing solely on the Experian forecasts

from December 2017, the need for c. 5.80 hectares of employment land is identified for the

district between 2013-28 (or 0.39 hectares each year over a 15-year period).

Table 3.4 Employment land requirements in Wealden 2013-28., hectares

Office

(B1a & B1b)

Manufacturing

(B1c & B2)

Distribution

(B8)

2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa.

Experian +3.92 +0.26 +0.87 +0.06 +1.01 +0.07

EEFM +3.67 +0.24 +0.87 +0.06 -0.96 -0.06

ESEFM +3.89 +0.26 -0.87 -0.06 +1.57 +0.10

Source: Calculations by Regeneris Consulting Ltd, 2018


Appendix A - 11

Past Completions Scenario

3.24 Past trends in the completion rates of employment floorspace offer an alternative view of

how the demand for employment space might change in the future. Over a long enough

period, these scenarios can be a useful means to identify future trends in demand as they

reflect actual development patterns on the ground.

3.25 Table 3.5 below presents values for (net) average annual completions for office (B1a and

B1b), manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) floorspace over the last five and ten-

years leading to the 2016/17 financial year (ie. 2012/13 to 2016/17 and 2007/08 to 2016/17

respectively).

Table 3.5 Average annual (net) completions in Wealden over the short-term and long-

term periods

Average annual short-

term completions

(2012/13 - 2016/17)

Average annual long-

term completions

(2007/18 - 2016/17)

Office (B1a & B1b) 700 sq. metres 1,500 sq. metres

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 2,000 sq. metres 2,100 sq. metres

Distribution (B8) 1,200 sq. metres 1,400 sq. metres

Source: Based on monitoring data about net completions for 2007-17 made available by Wealden District Council.

3.26 Using average (net) completions for the past five years (ie. 2012/13 to 2016/17), and

projecting this over the proposed Plan period, it is estimated that between 2013 and 2028

the district could see the delivery of c. 10,500 sq. metres of office (B1a and B1b) floorspace;

29,400 sq. metres of manufacturing (B1c and B2) floorspace; and 17,700 sq. metres of

distribution (B8) floorspace.

3.27 An alternative scenario would be to consider delivery over a longer timescale, normally a

ten-year period. As such, using average (net) completions from 2007 onwards it is estimated

that the district could see the delivery of 22,300 sq. metres of office (B1a and B1b)

floorspace, 32,100 sq. metres of manufacturing (B1c and B2) floorspace and 21,500 sq.

metres of distribution (B8) floorspace.


Appendix A - 12

Table 3.6 Floorspace requirement based on 5-year and 10-year delivery

Floorspace

total pa.

5-year

average

Office (B1a & B1b) +10,500 +700

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) +29,400 +1,960

Distribution (B8) +17,700 +1,180

10-year

average

Office (B1a & B1b) +22,300 +1,490

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) +32,100 +2,140

Distribution (B8) +21,500 +1,440


3.28 Using the same assumptions on plot ratios as those used when assessing economic

forecasts, the floorspace requirements identified in the table above can be converted into

employment land requirements in the district for the period 2013-28. Table 3.7 below shows

that based on the 5-year average completions rate, the demand for land between 2013-28

is expected to be 1.05 hectares for office (B1a and B1b) uses, 7.34 hectares for (B1c and B2)

manufacturing uses, and 3.54 hectares for distribution (B8) uses.

3.29 On the other hand, based on the average (net) completions over a ten-year period would

result in the demand for 2.23 hectares of land for office (B1a and B1b) uses, 8.03 hectares

for manufacturing (B1c and B2) uses, and 4.31 hectares for distribution (B8) uses.


Office

(B1a & B1b)

Manufacturing

(B1c & B2)

Distribution

(B8)

2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa.

5-year average +1.05 +0.07 +7.34 +0.49 +3.54 +0.24

10-year average +2.23 +0.15 +8.03 +0.54 +4.31 +0.29



Appendix A - 13

Labour Supply Scenario

3.30 The labour supply scenario takes projected population changes in the district (based on

housing delivery each year over the Plan period) to derive the implied size of the workforce

as well as the number of jobs that this could support. The approach used to calculate

employment land need based on changes to the labour force, is similar to that used in the

assessment of the district’s Objectively Assessed Housing Need (OAN), and makes use of

the POPGROUP model8. Once the size of the labour force is determined, current and future

sectoral make-up of the district’s economy are applied to the labour force, and the demand

for employment land need is calculated.

3.31 To ensure consistency with the assessment of future housing need in the district, this

scenario has drawn on the Council’s Draft Plan9 to deliver 11,456 dwellings between 2013

and 2028.

3.32 As a starting point, the Council’s emerging plans are compared with the latest demographic

projections, the 2014-based Sub-National Population Projections. This is done to provide

additional context to the labour force-based forecasts. The ONS’s latest projections indicate

that by 2028, Wealden’s population is expected to grow to 176,500 people, an increase of

23,900 people (or +16%) over 2013 figures. This is higher than the overall population

growth expected to result from the Council’s emerging plans (an increase of +18,900

addition people, or +12% over 2013 figures).

3.33 Based on the Council’s emerging plans, it is expected that the district’s working age

population will increase by 300 people (or +0.4%) between 2013 and 2028. Despite the

relatively small increase in working age population, the number of economically active

residents is expected to increase by 4,400 people (or by +5.8%). This is the result of changes

in the national retirement age, and reflects an increasing trend where people stay in

employment for longer. As a result, the number of residents in employment is expected to

increase by an additional 4,500 people (+7.9%) between 2013 and 2028, or +300 people

each year.

8 Please see the Wealden OAN Update (from February 2017) for a more detailed description of the POPGROUP model.

9 Wealden District Council, ‘Wealden Local Plan: Draft Proposed Submission’, March 2017


Appendix A - 14

Table 3.8 Growth in workforce as part of labour supply scenario, 2013-28

SNPP 2014

Council’s emerging

plans for 11,456 homes

no. % no. %

Total population – 2028 176,500 - 171,500 -

Change

2013-28

Population +23,900 +15.7% +18,900 +12.4%

Working age population +3,700 +4.4% +300 +0.4%

Economic active residents +7,500 +9.8% +4,400 +5.8%

Residents in employment +6,800 +11.9% +4,500 +7.9%

Annual growth +455 +0.75% +300 +0.51%

Source: Based on ONS, Sub-National Population Projections, 2016 and Wealden District Council, Wealden Local Plan: Draft

Proposed Submission, March 2017; Calculations by Regeneris Consulting Ltd, 2018

3.34 Employment growth (+4,500 additional jobs between 2013-28) is then allocated to different

sectors based on the Experian forecasts. The steps used to convert the jobs resulting from

the Council’s emerging plans into floorspace and employment land need are outlined in

the Appendix below, and are similar to the method used to calculate employment land

need based on the economic forecasts.

3.35 The table below shows that under the labour-supply scenario, around 33,400 sq. metres of

office (B1a and B1b) floorspace will be required by 2028. The table also shows that over the

2013-28 period there will be 10,300 and 8,700 sq. metres of surplus floorspace for

manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) uses respectively by 2028.

Table 3.9 Floorspace requirement based on labour force forecasts, 2013-28 (sq. metres)

FTEs Floorspace (sq. metres)

total pa. total pa.

Office (B1a & B1b) +910 +60 +33,400 +2,230

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) -330 -20 -10,300 -690

Distribution (B8) -110 -5 -8,700 -580


Please note: Total FTE job numbers are rounded to the nearest multiple of 10, whilst annual FTE job numbers are rounded

to the nearest multiple of 5.


Appendix A - 15

3.36 The table below shows demand for employment land in the district once expected changes

in employment floorspace are converted into employment land need using plot ratios.

Table 3.10 highlights the need for 3.34 hectares of employment land for office

developments, whilst demand for manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8)

employment land is expected to decline by 2.57 and 1.74 hectares respectively.


Office

(B1a & B1b)

Manufacturing

(B1c & B2)

Distribution

(B8)

2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa. 2013-28 pa.

5-year average +3.34 0.22 -2.57 -0.17 -1.74 -0.12



Appendix A - 16

4. Conclusions

4.1 This section presents our emerging conclusions for the Wealden District based on the

assessment of employment land need in the district between 2013 and 2028.

Emerging Conclusions on Scenarios

4.2 An overall view of the assessment of employment land need in the district between 2013

and 2028 is presented in the table below. It shows a detailed breakdown for both total and

annual values for floorspace (in sq. metres) and employment land (in hectares) in terms of

office (B1a and B1b), manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) uses.

Table 4.1 Employment land need scenarios for Wealden, 2013-28

Floorspace

(sq. metres)

Employment land

requirements (ha)

total pa. total pa.

Economic Forecasts

Experian

Office (B1a & B1b) 39,200 2,620 3.92 0.26

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 900 60 0.87 0.06

Distribution (B8) 5,000 340 1.01 0.07

EEFM

Office (B1a & B1b) 36,700 2,440 3.67 0.24

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 3,500 230 0.87 0.06

Distribution (B8) -4,800 -320 -0.96 -0.06

ESEFM

Office (B1a & B1b) 38,900 2,590 3.89 0.26

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) -3,500 -230 -0.87 -0.06

Distribution (B8) 7,900 520 1.57 0.10

Past Completions

Short-term

completions

Office (B1a & B1b) 10,500 700 1.05 0.07

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 29,400 1,960 7.34 0.49

Distribution (B8) 17,700 1,180 3.54 0.24

Long-term

completions

Office (B1a & B1b) 22,300 1,490 2.23 0.15

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) 32,100 2,140 8.03 0.54

Distribution (B8) 21,500 1,440 4.31 0.29

Labour Supply

Labour

Market

Office (B1a & B1b) 33,500 2,230 3.34 0.22

Manufacturing (B1c & B2) -10,300 -690 -2.57 -0.17

Distribution (B8) -8,700 -580 -1.74 -0.12



Appendix A - 17

4.3 The assessment of employment land need in the district based on economic forecasts, past

completion trends and labour supply indicates the following:

• Employment land need in the district is expected to be driven by growth in the

professional, scientific and technical sectors, resulting in increased demand for

employment land dedicated to office (B1a and B1b) uses.

• Despite this, there is little agreement on the quantum of employment land needed

for (B1a and B1b) office uses, with total demand between 2013 and 2028 expected

to range from 1.05 hectares (under the short-term completions scenario) to 3.92

hectares (under the employment-led forecasts based on the Experian model).

• There is little agreement amongst the scenarios used on the demand for land

devoted to manufacturing (B1c and B2) and distribution (B8) uses over the same

period. Whilst the labour supply scenario suggests that overall demand for these

uses will decline (by 2.57 hectares and 1.74 hectares respectively), our assessment

based on economic forecasts and past completions suggests otherwise.

• An assessment of manufacturing-related jobs in the district highlights an emerging

trend in employment land uses for manufacturing purposes; which includes a shift

from industrial and manufacturing (B2) uses to lower density light industrial uses

(B1c); ie. requiring more floorspace for the equivalent number of jobs. This means

that despite an overall decline (of c. 60 FTE jobs by 2028) in manufacturing (defined

as B1c and B2 uses), demand for floorspace is expected to increase.

• Demand for distribution (B8) space is also expected to increase, and is expected to

range from 1.01-4.31 hectares.

4.4 The assessment presented in this study outlines demand based on scenarios looking at how

the district’s economy is expected to change by 2028. It is important to note, that this study

has not considered the quality of the current stock. As discussed in the December 2016

study the quality of current stock (particularly that of manufacturing and distribution

floorspace) needs to be improved to support both current and future opportunities.


Appendix A - 18

4.5 Based on the assessment of demand for employment land in Wealden District, we are of

the view that the economic scenarios are more realistic, as they consider how the district’s

economy could be expected to change by 2028. In particular, we are of the view that

Experian-based estimates should be considered as these are the most recent forecasts

available to the study.

4.6 Overall, the Experian-based forecast identifies the need for 45,100 sq. metres of

employment floorspace which translates into a need for 5.80 hectares of employment

land. This is forecast to consist of 3.92 hectares for office uses, 0.87 hectares for

manufacturing and 1.01 hectares for distribution uses.

4.7 This represents a departure from the December 2016 study which identifies the labour

market scenario as the preferred scenario. This departure is based in part on the difference

between the updated labour market scenario (ie. 11,456 homes) and population projections

in the 2014-based SNPP. Whilst the labour force scenario in the December 2016 study

closely reflects the 2014-based SNPP (ie. 7,700 vs 7,800 working age residents respectively

between 2015-37), the labour force scenario in this study is expected to result in 2,300 fewer

Wealden residents in employment by 2028.

4.8 Furthermore, the employment land need outlined by the labour force scenario in this study

(despite reflecting trends in the equivalent scenario in the December 2016 study) represents

a major shift in employment land need when compared with economic forecasts for the

2013-28 period, and past completion trends (both short and long-term scenarios).


Appendix A - 19

Appendix A - Method for Translating Jobs

Growth to Employment Land

Need

A.1 This appendix describes our method for converting growth figures from the three economic

forecasts used to employment land need by 2028. This method is also used to convert

change in the number of residents in employment in the labour market scenario into

employment land need in Wealden to 2028. The method described in this section is the

same as the method used in the December 2016 study.

• Step 1: Subtract home workers from employment forecasts/ number of residents in

employment based on the proportion of people who work mainly at or from home

from the 2011 Census of Population.

• Step 2: Allocate employment use-classes to detailed four-digit SIC sectors (using

Regeneris’ in-house Employment Land Review model).

• Step 3: Estimate the proportion of employment from four-digit SIC for each of the

categories used in each respective economic forecast. For the labour force scenario,

the economic structure identified by the latest Experian Forecasts is used. This

exercise uses the latest available Business Register and Employment Survey data for

the Wealden District.

• Step 4: Apply proportions based on the total number of jobs that will require

different types of floorspace (ie. percentage of jobs in B1a, B1b, B1c, B2 and B8).

• Step 5: Convert employment numbers into full-time equivalent jobs at the broad

sector level. This is based on data from the Business Register and Employment

Survey for the Wealden District.


Appendix A - 20

• Step 6: Convert total FTE jobs for each use-class into floorspace requirements by

applying the following employment densities (based on the Homes and

Communities Agency’s (now Homes England) Employment Density Guide):

B1a - 15 sq. metres

B1b - 63 sq. metres

B1c - 59 sq. metres

B2 - 38 sq. metres

B8 - 77 sq. metres

• Step 7: An allowance of 10% safety margin for office space, and 5% for

manufacturing (B1c & B2) and distribution (B8). This safety margin is only applied

where demand for floorspace is growing.

• Step 8: An allowance of 10% is added to all floorspace requirements to reflect

normal levels of market vacancy in employment space. This allowance was only

added where demand for floorspace is growing.

• Step 9: The following plot ratios were used to convert floorspace into employment

land requirements:

Office (B1a and B1b) - 0.5

Manufacturing (B1c and B2) - 0.4

Storage (B8) - 0.5

• Step 10: Convert employment land requirements (in sq. metres) to hectares.

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Documents

Wealden Economy Study Update 2013- 2028 · 1.1 Regeneris Consulting was commissioned by Wealden District Council to undertake a review of the Economy Study delivered in December 2016