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Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. CRFS November 14, 2012. Green River Basin. Upper Green. Dry everywhere Extreme dry conditions in Yampa, Duchesne. Yampa. Duchesne. Upper Green: Basin Conditions. 103%. 83%. 98%. FONTENELLE RESERVOIR. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Water Year 2012:Review of Water Supply Forecasts
in the Colorado River Basin
CRFS November 14, 2012
Green River BasinUpper Green
Duchesne Yampa
• Dry everywhere• Extreme dry conditions in
Yampa, Duchesne
Upper Green: Basin Conditions
Precipitation % of Average
October 120
November 115
December 48
January 130
February 112
March 48
April 64
May 43
June 5
July 104
Water Year 71
103%
98%83%
508 KAF 70%
ESP SWS NRCS COOR %
Jan 545 553 540 550 76
Feb 665 707 685 685 94
Mar 725 750 730 730 101
April 670 665 660 665 92
May 590 528 538 538 74
Jun 497 488 478 488 67
FONTENELLE RESERVOIR
2012 MAEJan : 42 KAFFeb: 177 KAFMar: 222 KAFApr: 157 KAFMay: 30 KAFJune: 20 KAF
570 KAF 58%
ESP SWS NRCS COOR %
Jan 650 753 760 760 78
Feb 860 932 880 880 90
Mar 940 1000 945 945 96
April 800870
898 795 810 83
May 698 719 620 630 64
Jun 574 616 550 560 57
FLAMING GORGE
2012 MAEJan : 190 KAFFeb: 310 KAFMar: 375 KAFApr: 240 KAFMay: 64 KAFJune: 11 KAF
FLAMING GORGE LOCAL: (Flaming Gorge Inflow-Fontenelle Inflow)
Observed Local 62 KAF/24% 4th Lowest
Obs Average %April 38.3 48 80%May 23.1 79 29%June -0.7 92 0%July 1.2 34 3%
ESP local too high….
Yampa: Basin Conditions
Precipitation 2012% of Average
2002% of Average
October 96 110
November 94 87
December 28 65
January 62 56
February 126 51
March 31 84
April 55 57
May 24 19
June 3 18
July 111 68
Water Year 60 67
66%
80%
52%
337 KAF 36%
Yampa nr MaybellESP SWS NRCS COOR %
Jan 700 693 700 700 75
Feb 660 636 635 635 68
Mar 730 713 715 715 76
April 540 520 485 500 53
May 410 418 398 398 43
Jun 365 395 368 368 39
#1 1977: 261 KAF#2 2002: 269 KAF#3 1934: 278 KAF#4 2012: 337 KAF
2012 MAEJan : 363 KAFFeb: 298 KAFMar: 378 KAFApr: 163 KAFMay: 61 KAFJune: 31 KAF
April-July Volume (KAF) Historical
Volume (KAF) % Average 2012 L-H Min (KAF) Min Year
Yampa abv Stagecoach 3.52 15% 2/23 1.46 2002
Yampa at Steamboat Springs 105 40% 4/105 82 2002
Elk near Milner 173 54% 3/43 135 2002
Elkhead Creek abv Long Gulch 20.3 28% 2/17 14.8 2002
Yampa at Maybell 337 36% 4/96 261 1977
Little Snake nr Slater 73 47% 4/65 51 1977
Little Snake nr Savery 90 26% 1/23 90 2012
Little Snake nr Lily 111 32% 4/90 59 1934
White near Meeker 111 39% 4/108 81 1977
White near Watson 98 35% 4/84 72 1977
All April-July Volumes are in bottom five of historical records!
Duchesne: Basin Conditions
67 % 53%
72%Precipitation % of Average
October 146
November 84
December 39
January 72
February 92
March 62
April 60
May 16
June 2
July 174
Water Year 76
31 KAF 42%
31KAF 47%
Neola and Lake Fork
-Over forecast issues (~20-30% over forecast in May)-Same pattern at all points on the south slope of the Uintas
2012 MAEJan : 25 KAFFeb: 21 KAFMar: 21 KAFApr: 19 KAFMay: 13 KAFJune: 5 KAF
Upper Colorado Basin
Mainstem
GunnisonDolores
• Extreme dry
Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions
April Forecast
900 KAF38%
Colorado - CameoESP SWS
rawpref rtd
NRCS rawpref rtd
COOR %
Jan 1910 17551800p
16701700p
1750 74%
Feb 1950 18101830p
17301730p
1750 74%
Mar 1930 17251790p
17601760p
1760 75%
April 1435 6701300p
10301280p
1280 54%
May 1070 6001030p
9901030p
1030 44%
Jun 935 895930p
885930p
930 39%
Upper Colorado 2012 VolumesApril - July 2012 Historical
2011 H-L RankingVolume (kaf) % avg
2012 L-H Ranking Min (kaf) Year
Lake Granby 116 52% 3 / 85 88 2002 1Willow Creek Res 20 43% 6 / 93 9.5 2002 1Fraser - Winter Park 8.24 42% 2 / 76 8.21 2002 2Williams Fork Res 39 41% 2 / 53 30 2002 2Dillon Res 60 37% 2 / 53 54 2002 2Green Mountain Res 112 41% 2 / 75 93 2002 2Wolford Mountain Res 21 39% 3 / 31 10.1 2002 1Colorado - Kremmling 351 41% 2 / 50 246 2002 1Eagle - Gypsum 133 40% 3 / 66 119 2002 2Colorado - Dotsero 550 39% 2 / 72 416 2002 1Ruedi Res 56 41% 3 / 43 50 2002 2Roaring Fork - Glenwood 262 38% 3 / 43 203 1977 3Colorado -Glenwood 851 40% 3 / 46 664 2002 2Colorado - Cameo 900 38% 3 / 79 724 2002 2Platuea Ck - Cameo 30 24% 3 / 37 13.7 1977 8Colorado - Cisco 1503 34% 2 / 32 1057 2002 5Lake Powell 2063 29% 3 / 49 964 2002 3
Gunnison Basin Conditions
2012: 206 KAF (31% of average)
ESP SWS(route)
NRCSStatics
COOR %
Jan 439 460 455 450 67
Feb 467 458 465 450 67
Mar 462 447 440 450 67
April 384 340 275 330 49
May 253 227 234 230 34
Jun 201 186 238 196 29
2012: 120 KAF (41% of average)
ESP SWS(Route)
NRCSStatics
COOR %
Jan 222 230 220-245
235 80
Feb 241 225 230 225 76
Mar 225 243 250 240 81
April 196 142 184 150 51
May 149 127 170 138 47
Jun 121 115 115 115 39
San Juan Basin• Dry, but not quite as
extreme as further north
San JuanBasin Conditions
2012: 230 KAF (55 % of average)
ESP SWS NRCSStatics
COOR %
Jan 355 400 370 350 80
Feb 350 400 345 350 80
Mar 385 400 375 375 90
April 314 227 295 275 66
May 273 186 219-274 230 55
Jun 244 199 256 230 55
Forecast Evolution Plot
2012: 107 KAF (55 % of average)
Lake Powell
Lake Powell Basin Conditions
Monthly Precip-itation
Water Year Precipitation
Snow Water Equivalent
Monthly Inflow Forecast0
50
100
150Lake Powell Basin ConditionsPercent of 1981-2010 Average
As of Jan 1, 2012
As of Feb 1, 2012
As of Mar 1, 2012
As of Apr 1, 2012
As of May 1, 2012
As of Jun 1, 2012
As of Jul 1, 2012
As of Aug 1, 2012
505071%
350049%
236033%
2063 KAF29%
April Forecast
Lake PowellESP SWS raw
pref rtd NRCS rawpref rtd
COOR %
Jan 5140 60505000p
48905150p
5050 71%
Feb 5290 ---5100p
50205050p
5050 71%
Mar 5530 50005200p
52505300p
5300 74%
April 3940 15003500p
28703500p
3500 49%
May 2540 ---2360p
22602260p
2360 33%
Jun 2120 ---2010p
2010 28%
2063 KAF / 29%(#3 / 49)
1128 KAF / 38%(#4 / 108)
375 KAF / 34%(#6 / 89)
1503 KAF / 34%(#2 / 32)
2002 Obs (kaf)
% Avg Rank 2012-2002(kaf)
Green – Green River, UT 818 28% 3 310
Colorado – Cisco 1057 24% 1 446
San Juan – Bluff 0 0% 1 375
Lake Powell 964 13% 1 1099
Lower Colorado BasinVirgin:Snowpack far behind average by mid JanuarySnowpack melted out very early (order of weeks)April-June warmer than average and accelerated meltMay and June very dry (finally saw precip in July)
Salt-Verde:Generally dry for an extended period, particularly in VerdeLa Nina conditions – continued from last yearDry soil conditions entering the seasonEarly season snowpack fizzledWeighted ESP was better guidance
Phoenix dust storm
Virgin
28
WY12 Official ForecastsVirgin @ Virgin (VIRU1)
2012 AMJJ Observed = 26.5 KAF (46% AVG)
81-10 AMJJ Average = 58.1 KAF
VIRU1 Official Fcst (COORD) ErrorJan 1 45 18.5
Feb 1 32 5.5
Mar 1 32 5.5
Apr 1 28 1.5
May 1 26 -0.5
Jun 1 25 -1.5
SUMMARY:
Early months: overforecast (especially January).
As season progressed: Precip dried out; fcsts dropped.
Fcsts issued in Apr, May, June: were closest to the volume that was eventually observed.
Least Erroneous Official WY12 Fcst : May
SALT – ROOSEVELT: 2012 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTSProgressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May)
Volume in kAF
VERDE-HORSHOE: 2011 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTSProgressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May)
Volume in kAF