WATER TRANSFORMED: SUSTAINABLE WATER SOLUTIONS FOR

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MODULE A

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE This online textbook provides free access to a comprehensive education and training package that brings together the knowledge of how countries, specifically Australia, can adapt to climate change. This resource has been developed formally as part of the Federal Government’s Department of Climate Change’s Climate Change Adaptation Professional Skills program.

CHAPTER 1: UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

LECTURE 1.1: RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA.

© The Natural Edge Project (‘TNEP’), 2009

Copyright in this material (Work) is owned by The Natural Edge Project, hosted by Griffith University and the Australian National University.

The material contained in this document is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. According to the License, this document may be copied, distributed, transmitted and adapted by others, providing the work is properly attributed as: ‘Smith, M., Hargroves, K., Stasinopoulos, P., Desha, C., Reeves, A. and Hargroves, S.’ (2009) Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions for Climate Change Adaptation, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Australia.’

Document is available electronically at http://www.naturaledgeproject.net/Sustainable_Water_Solutions_Portfolio.aspx.

AcknowledgementsThe Work was produced by The Natural Edge Project funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Climate Change Adaptation Skills for Professionals Program, with in-kind hosting provided by Griffith University and the Australian National University. The development of this publication has been supported by the contribution of non-salary on-costs and administrative support by the Science, Engineering, Environment and Technology Division (SEET) of Griffith University, under the supervision of Professor Brendan Gleeson, and both the Fenner School of Environment and Society and the Engineering Department at the Australian National University, under the supervision of Professor Stephen Dovers.

Project Leader: Mr Karlson ‘Charlie’ Hargroves, TNEP DirectorPrinciple Researchers: Mr Michael Smith, TNEP Research Coordinator and Mr Peter Stasinopoulos, TNEP Technical SpecialistTNEP Researchers: Ms Cheryl Desha, TNEP Education Coordinator and Miss Angie Reeves, TNEP Research Officer.Copy Editor: Mrs Stacey Hargroves, TNEP Professional Editor.

Peer ReviewPrincipal reviewers for this lecture: Geoff McAlpine (Formerly CSIRO) - Geoff worked in several Commonwealth Departments, for two Ministers, spent three and a half years in Australia's permanent delegation to the OECD and fifteen years with CSIRO in policy-related areas, particularly dealing with environment and wider sustainability issues. For much of the 15 years with CSIRO Geoff worked closely with Dr Graeme Pearman on CSIRO’s climate change work.

Dr Barry Newell (ANU) - Barry is lead investigator for the ANU-UTS Climate-Energy-Water Links project. Barry is a physicist who has a background in system dynamics, mathematics and science education, operations research, and management. For the last seven years he has focused his research on the dynamics and management of human-environment complexes.

Disclaimer

While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the parties involved in the development of this document do not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents. Information, recommendations and opinions expressed herein are not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual or entity and should not be relied upon for personal, legal, financial or other decisions. The user must make its own assessment of the suitability for its use of the information or material contained herein. To the extent permitted by law, the parties involved in the development of this document exclude all liability to any other party for expenses, losses, damages and costs (whether losses were foreseen, foreseeable, known or otherwise) arising directly or indirectly from using this document.

This document is produced for general information only and does not represent a statement of the policy of the Commonwealth of Australia. The Commonwealth of Australia and all persons acting for the Commonwealth preparing this report accept no liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this publication, or for any action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on this material.

Enquires should be directed to:

Mr Karlson ‘Charlie’ HargrovesCo-Founder and Director The Natural Edge Project charlie@naturaledgeproject.net www.naturaledgeproject.net

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The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) is an independent non-profit Sustainability Think-Tank based in Australia. TNEP operates as a partnership for education, research and policy development on innovation for sustainable development. TNEP's mission is to contribute to, and succinctly communicate, leading research, case studies, tools, policies and strategies for achieving sustainable development across government, business and civil society. Driven by a team of early career Australians, the Project receives mentoring and support from a range of experts and leading organisations in Australia and internationally, through a generational exchange model.

Module A: Adapting to Climate Change

Chapter 1: Understanding the Risks and Adapting to Climate Change

Lecture 1.1: Risks and Vulnerabilities from Climate Change in Australia

Lecture 1.2: Reducing Risks to the Built Environment & Infrastructure – from Cyclones and Hailstorms

Lecture 1.3: Reducing Risks to the Built Environment & Infrastructure – from Bushfires

Lecture 1.4: Adapting to Sea Level Rises - Coasts and the Built Environment.

Module B: Adapting to Changes in Water Availability - Industry & Commercial

Chapter 2: Getting Started: The Fundamentals of Monitoring/Measuring Water Usage & Identifying Water Efficiency, Recycling & Water Collection/Storage Opportunities

Lecture 2.1: The Business case for Water Saving Initiatives and Addressing Organisational Barriers

Lecture 2.2: Getting Started: Benchmarking, Water Audits, Metering and Monitoring

Lecture 2.3: Identifying & Implementing Water Efficiency & Recycling Opportunities in the Agricultural Sector

Lecture 2.4: Identifying & Implementing Water Efficiency & Recycling Opportunities in the Built Environment

Chapter 3: Identifying & Implementing Water Efficiency & Recycling Opportunities - by Sector

Lecture 3.1: The Manufacturing Sector

Lecture 3.2: Food Processing & Beverage Sector

Lecture 3.3: The Mining Sector

Chapter 4: Water Efficiency Opportunities in Light Industry/Commercial Sectors

Lecture 4.1: Tourism, Hotel & Hospitality

Lecture 4.2: Health Sector – Water Savings in Hospitals

Lecture 4.3: Education Sector - Water Savings in Universities

Module C: Best Practice Integrated Urban and Coastal Water Resource Management

Chapter 5: Integrated Water Resource Management – A Whole Systems Approach

Lecture 5.1: A Whole Systems Approach to Water Supply and Treatment

Lecture 5.2: Holistic Water Planning - Protecting and Generating Potable Supply

Lecture 5.3: Holistic Water Planning – To Protect Potable Supply from Storm Surges and Rising Sea Levels.

Chapter 6: Water Sensitive Design, Recycling and Distributed Supply and Treatment Opportunities

Lecture 6.1: Water Sensitive Urban Design

Lecture 6.2: Urban Stormwater - Recycling Options

Lecture 6.3: Urban Treated and Industrial Water – Recycling and Treatment Options

Lecture 6.4: Micro Storage Options – Residential and Commercial Options

Chapter 7: Integrated Water Resource Management

Lecture 7.1: Integrated Water Resource Management – In the Built Environment

Lecture 7.2: Onsite Distributed Water Treatment Options – Residential & Commercial

Lecture 7.3: Integrated Water Resource Management – Rural

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Adapting to Climate Change

Lecture 1.1: Risks and Vulnerabilities from Climate Change in Australia

Educational AimThis lecture will overview and outline the rationale for this online education and training package. This lecture will outline the main risks and vulnerabilities from climate change to explain the importance of climate change adaptation and mitigation. This lecture will also outline why climate change, if not mitigated globally, is likely to result in more intense hailstorms and cyclones, more frequent heat waves and higher risks of bushfires, rising sea levels, and reduced water availability in Southern and Eastern Australia and South West Australia. An overview of the likely impacts of climate change will also be provided, with reference to the literature on these topics.

Learning Points:The early impacts of climate change have already appeared and scientists believe that further impacts are inevitable, no matter what happens to future global greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the decisions we make today about infrastructure, health, water management, agriculture, biodiversity and housing will have lasting consequences. It is therefore important to begin planning now for the impacts of climate change in the future.

Department of Climate Change, Adapting to Climate Change Program.1

1. Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the earth’s atmosphere. The main natural greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and water (H2O). These gases absorb and re-radiate the sun’s heat, providing a temperature range that is suitable for life as we know it. Without greenhouse gases, the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere would be approximately 34 degrees lower than it is today.

2. The natural greenhouse effect occurs as follows: The Sun powers the Earth’s climate, radiating energy at very short wavelengths, mainly in the visible or ultraviolet part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The top of the Earth’s atmosphere reflects roughly a third of the solar energy which reaches the earth. Most of the remaining two-thirds is absorbed by the Earth’s surface but some is re-radiated back into the atmosphere as thermal radiation in the infra-red spectrum. The natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and re-emit thermal radiation in the infra-red spectrum, half of which is re-emitted back towards the earth’s surface.

3. Over at least the last 400,000 years natural greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere (CO2 and CH4) have oscillated in a natural cycle which has correlated with temperature changes. CO2

levels in the atmosphere, for instance, have oscillated between approximately 180 and 300 parts per million. However, over the last two centuries, the concentration of such greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been increasing above this natural range due to industrial activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), agricultural activities and land clearing. Increased concentrations in the atmosphere of anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been shown by the IPCC to result in global warming, which has the potential to significantly alter

1 Department of Climate Change – Climate Change Adaptation Program - at http://www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/index.html Accessed 2 March 2009

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the Earth’s climate long term. The main anthropogenic greenhouse gases being added to the atmosphere are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

4. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere now significantly exceed levels experienced naturally for at least the last 400,000 years. In fact, data based on isotope ratios in marine micro fossils suggests strongly that CO2 levels have not in fact been above, or much above, 400 parts per million for about 23 million years.2 Also, it is important to note that humanity, through the use of fossil fuels, deforestation and land-clearing especially is adding greenhouse gases to a peaking of the natural cycle of CO2. The IPCC 4th Assessment showed that, in 2007, the concentration of CO2 was 379ppm and the combined effect of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 455 CO2-equivalent and rising.3 Thus CO2 equivalent levels are already well above that which has been experienced naturally for millions of years. The effects of global warming can already been seen in events such the 1998 bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

5. The IPCC 4th Assessment also effectively ended the debate concerning key aspects of the science of climate change, providing an ‘unequivocal’ link between climate change and greenhouse gas emission rises. The IPCC 4th assessment found that ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level..... The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level rise.’4

6. The IPCC 4th Assessment has also effectively ended the debate concerning the link between climate change and current human activities, especially burning fossil fuels, deforestation and land clearing, the use of synthetic greenhouse gases, and decomposition of wastes from landfill. The assessment found that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the Third Assessment’s conclusion that ‘most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations’. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.” 5

7. Australia and the Asia Pacific Region are vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Some events are already giving Australians a tangible sense of risks and vulnerabilities from climate change such the the 2003 Sydney Hailstorms, 2006 Cyclone Larry (which hit Innisfail and surrounding areas in Far North Queensland), and the 2009 Victorian bushfires.

8. The main sources of vulnerability and risk to Australia, according to the IPCC 4 th Assessment,6

2 Pearson, P. and Palmer, M. (2000) ‘Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations over the Past 60 Million Years’, Nature, vol 406, pp695-698.3 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p67, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm, accessed 10 November 2008.4 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Summary for Policymakers’, pp5,9, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, accessed 28 Octonber 2008.5 Ibid.6 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.

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are:

Increased risk of more intense cyclones and hailstorms (addressed in Module A, Lecture 1.2)

- Risks of loss of life.

- Increased damage and disruptions to services, built environment and infrastructure.

- Risks of damage and losses in agriculture and forestry.

- Increased insurance costs for extreme weather events and higher accident rates.

Changes in intense rainfall events (addressed in Module C)

- Increases in rainfall may exceed the coping capacity of current stormwater, wastewater and sewerage systems.

- More intense rainfall may increase erosion, landslides and damage to infrastructure.

More Heat Waves and Higher Average Temperatures

- Higher risks of direct and indirect negative health effects on the elderly and the vulnerable.

- Increased risk of bushfires. (addressed in Module A, Lecture 1.3)

- Drier conditions associated with higher temperatures and less rainfall will lead to greater risk of dust storms.

- More vector-borne diseases from the tropics will spread south.

Altered rainfall patterns (addressed in Modules B and C)

- Decreases in rainfall for Southern and Eastern Australia.

- Decreases in rainfall will provide a constraint on the development of the farming community.

- Decreases in rainfall and higher temperatures will increase the risk of algal blooms in water storage dams.

- Higher water temperatures and reduced stream flows will reduce water quality in terms of dissolved oxygen, nutrient and pollution loads and salinity, as well as other water chemistry indicators.

- Decreases in rainfall and higher temperatures will increase urban water costs.

Sea level rise (addressed in Module A, Lecture 1.4 and Module C, Lectures 5.2 and 5.3)

- Increased chance of damage to coastal buildings, infrastructure and recreational facilities.

- Increased risk of high salinity in some coastal areas resulting in reduced productivity of land, as well as damage buildings and infrastructure.

- Increased risk of salination of surface and groundwater sources in coastal areas.

Disruption of Ocean and Marine Ecosystems

- Increased ocean acidification which will cause a serious loss of productivity from the world’s oceans, damaging Australia’s commercial and recreational fishing industries.7

- Sea surface temperature rise and coral bleaching.

Biodiversity Loss

7 Hobday, A., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E., Kunz, T. and Richardson, A. (2007) Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Water Resources, www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/marinelife-parta.pdf, accessed 13 February 2008.

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- By 2020, significant biodiversity losses are expected, particularly in the ecologically rich Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other significant biodiversity losses are expected where species cannot migrate easily, such as in south-west Western Australia,8

which has been listed as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots containing over 13,000 endemic species.

9. It is important that efforts are made to adapt to climate change across all these areas of risk and vulnerability, particularly in the area of water, as the Garnaut Review found,

For the next two decades or so, the impacts of climate change are likely to be dominated by stressed urban water supply and the effects of changes in temperature and water availability on agriculture. Already all major cities and many regional centres are feeling the strain of declining rainfall and runoff into streams. Some cities are commencing the development of high-cost infrastructure for alternative water sources. In a no-mitigation case, the development of this infrastructure is likely to be a necessity.9

10. Australia has a once in a generation opportunity to reform water use and infrastructure. All Australians have a part to play in ensuring that Australia achieves the necessary water reforms and leaves a positive legacy to future generations (see Module B and Module C). Improving water management to adapt to climate change will help position Australia well to be able to assist the wider Asia Pacific region as reduction of water availability will be one of the greatest challenges for many in the Asia Pacific. As the IPCC 4th Assessment report found,

If current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could shrink to 100,000 square kilometers by the 2030s from 500,000 square kilometers now. Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline in the course of the century, thus reducing water availability during warm and dry periods in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world’s population currently live.10

8 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.9 Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008) Garnaut Climate Change Review Final Report, Garnaut Climate Change Review, Australia.10 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

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Brief Background Information The Earth’s Climate and the Natural Greenhouse Effect

The Earth’s climate system is a complex interaction of components and processes. The changes in the state of the climate depend on the exchange of heat, water and gases between components (see Figure 1.1.1).

Figure 1.1.1: Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions

Source: IPCC (2007)11

One of the important characteristics of the Earth’s atmosphere and climate system is the natural greenhouse effect which enables life on earth to thrive. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes this natural greenhouse effect as follows:12

The Sun powers Earth’s climate, radiating energy at very short wavelengths, predominately in the visible or near-visible (e.g., ultraviolet) part of the spectrum. Roughly one-third of the solar energy that reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere is reflected directly back to space. The remaining two-thirds is absorbed by the surface and, to a lesser extent, by the atmosphere. To balance the absorbed incoming energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of the spectrum. Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to Earth. (This occurs because) the atmosphere contains several trace gases which absorb and emit infrared radiation. These so called greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface. They emit in turn

11 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Historical Overview of Climate Change’, p104, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, accessed 28 October 2008.12 IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

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infrared radiation in all directions including downward to the Earth’s surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the atmosphere. This mechanism is called the natural greenhouse effect. 13

Figure 1.1.2: The Greenhouse Effect

Source: IPCC (1996)14

What are the Main Greenhouse Gases?

The four main natural greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, water and nitrous oxide which contribute to the natural greenhouse gas effect. However, the concentration of such greenhouse gases is increasing due to industrial activities, especially burning fossil fuels (coal, oil

13 Le Treut, H., Somerville, R., Cubasch, U., Ding, Y., Mauritzen, C., Mokssit, A., Peterson T. and Prather, M. (2007) Historical Overview of Climate Change, in IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p115, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, accessed 28 October 2008.14 IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge cited at UNEP/GRID-Arendal website (undated) ‘Greenhouse Effect’, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/greenhouse-effect, accessed 29 October 2008.

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and natural gas), agricultural activities and land clearing.15 Increased concentrations have been shown to result in more heat being re-radiated back to the planet’s surface, resulting in global warming. There are five classes of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, other than CO2, recognised by the Kyoto Protocol as contributing to the enhanced greenhouse gas effect (see Table 1.1.1). All of these gases have significantly higher global warming potential than CO2. For instance, sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) has a global-warming potential 23,900 times higher than that of CO2. This means that one SF6 molecule has the same effect on warming the planet as 23,900 CO2 molecules. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases are also noteworthy for their very high global warming potentials and atmospheric lifetimes.

Table 1.1.1: The Six Major Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

Symbol Name Common sourcesAtmospheric lifetime (years)*

Global warming potential for 100 years

% of US emissions

CO2Carbon dioxide

Fossil fuel combustion, forest clearing, cement production, etc.

n/a 1 79.9

CH4 Methane

Landfills, production and distribution of natural gas and petroleum, fermentation from the digestive system of livestock, rice cultivation, fossil fuel combustion, etc.

12 25X 9.5

N2O Nitrous oxide

Fossil fuel combustion, fertilisers, nylon production, manure, etc.

114 298X 5.8

HFCs Hydrofluoro-carbons

Refrigeration gases, aluminium smelting, semiconductor manufacturing, etc.

270 Up to 14,800X

1.8PFCs Perfluoro-

carbons

Aluminium production, semiconductor industry, etc.

50,000 Up to 12,200X

SF6 Sulphur hexafluoride

Electrical transmission and distribution systems, circuit breakers, magnesium production, etc.

3,200 Up to 22,800X

*Standard industry classification

Source: Forster, P. et al (2007)16

15 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Historical Overview of Climate Change’, p104, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, accessed 28 October 2008.

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What are the Current Greenhouse Gas Levels and Surface Temperatures?

Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have significantly exceeded levels experienced naturally for at least 400,000 years. Today, humanity is actually adding greenhouse gases to a peaking of the natural cycle of CO2. To demonstrate, the left hand side of Figure 1.1.3, based on air extracted from ice cores drilled in the Antarctic ice cap, shows the natural cycle of CO 2

concentrations and temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950, and shows that the peaks were at about 280-300ppm. In fact, data based on isotope ratios in marine micro fossils strongly suggests that CO2 levels have not been above, or much above, 400 parts per million for about 23 million years.17 At a finer resolution, the right hand side of Figure 1.1.3 shows the CO2 concentrations from 1500AD-2007AD, and shows that the current CO2 concentrations are above recent peaks. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report explained that, in 2007, the concentration of CO2 was 379ppm and the combined effect of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 455 CO2-equivalent and rising.18

Figure 1.1.3. Plot of CO2 concentrations and temperature from 400,000 years ago to 2007

Source: UNEP (2007)19

16 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing’, pp212-213, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm, accessed 20 November 2008.17 Pearson, P. and Palmer, M. (2000) ‘Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations over the Past 60 Million Years’, Nature, vol 406, pp695-698.18 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p67, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm, accessed 10 November 2008.19 UNEP (2007) Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, UNEP cited at UNEP/GRID-Arendal website (2007) ‘Historical Trends in Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperature, on a Geological and Recent Time Scale’, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/historical-trends-in-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-and-temperature-on-a-geological-and-recent-time-scale, accessed 10 November 2008.

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Annual average temperatures have increased in virtually all regions except for Antarctica (see Figure 1.1.4). The northern hemisphere, especially the northern polar regions, has experienced the most significant temperature increases, while Australia has experienced a temperature increase of 0.6°C (daily maximum) and 1.2°C (daily minimum) between 1910 and 2004,20 mostly since 1950.21

Figure 1.1.4. Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004 Source: IPCC (2007)22

While it is true that climate change has occurred naturally before, the risks and vulnerabilities from climate change today are very different. Firstly, today anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are being added to a natural peak at a rate and scale not experienced before by the planet. Secondly, when climate change occurred naturally in the past there weren’t over 6 billion people living on the

20 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, p510, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.21 Karoly and Braganza (2005) cited in IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, p510, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.22 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Summary for Policymakers’, p10, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 28 October 2008.

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Earth - as climate changes and with it water availability and sea levels rise, millions of people will need to move. Thirdly, when abrupt climate change occurred naturally before the industrial revolution, it was during a time where much of the world’s natural ecosystems were connected and highly resilient to climate shocks. However, many of the world’s ecosystems have been degraded in the past 150 years in most parts of the world,23 so the impacts of climate change on the world’s ecosystem’s resilience will be more severe than it was 10,000s of years ago. During the last period of significant climate change, ecosystems, plants and animals could easily migrate north and south when climate change occurred. Today, many ‘wilderness’ areas are largely disconnected and even isolated, so ecosystem migration will be impeded or impossible.24 For these ecosystems which cannot easily migrate north or south, the ultimate result may be collapse. Thus the risks from climate change are significant and there is a clear need to establish strategies to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow and eventually reverse their concentrations in the atmosphere (see The Natural Edge Project’s Energy Transformed online textbook25).

However, even if rapid action to mitigate climate change occurs globally over the coming decades, the natural inertias built into the earth’s complex climate system means that there is a clear need to simultaneously establish strategies to also adapt to climate change (see Module A, Module B and Module C). MIT Professors Sterman and Sweeney26 in their seminal paper ‘Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change’ outline some of these inertias. For instance, even if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions is reduced significantly, the overall concentration of the gases will continue to increase for at least several decades because greenhouse gas emissions are currently occurring at roughly double the ‘removal rate’ – that is, the net rate of greenhouse gas removal by natural processes such as biomass, absorption into the ocean, and other sinks.27 So even when humanity succeeds in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise until emissions fall to the removal rate. To ensure global atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions fall, greenhouse gas emissions must drop below the removal rate.28

Another important and significant inertia arises because of how the chemical equilibrium between CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and CO2 concentrations in the ocean is affected by rising and falling CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. As CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased, the oceans, to-date, have absorbed roughly a third of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases, in order to maintain chemical equilibrium. Once humanity succeeds in starting to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions then this will shift the chemical equilibrium between greenhouse gases in the ocean and in the air back the other way. Instead of the oceans absorbing more CO2, oceans will become net emitters of CO2. With significantly less CO2 in the air, the oceans will start degassing CO2 to restore the chemical equilibrium. So as CO2 atmospheric levels start to come down, the rate at which this happens will be slowed by a release of CO 2 from the oceans to keep the ocean-air CO2 chemical equilibrium in balance.

23 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, Island Press, Washington, DC, pp1-24, www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx, accessed 28 October 2008.24 Bright, C. (2000) State of the World Report, Anticipating Environmental Surprise, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC.25 Smith, M., Hargroves, K., Stasinopoulos, P., Stephens, R., Desha, C. and Hargroves, S. (2007) Energy Transformed: Sustainable Energy Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Australia.26 Sterman, J. and Sweeney, L. (2007) ‘Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter’, Climatic Change, vol 80, pp213–23827 IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.28 Sterman, J. and Sweeney, L. (2007) ‘Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter’, Climatic Change, vol 80, pp213–238.

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What are the Main Risks and Vulnerabilities for Australia?

The first step in developing effective adaptation strategies is to identify where the main risks and vulnerabilities exist from climate change for Australia. The IPCC29 and CSIRO30 in particular have done significant work to identify these vulnerabilities to help inform Australia’s climate change adaptation strategies. Their studies show that Australia is particularly vulnerable to potential negative impacts from climate change and is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These impacts are evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and increased intensities of extreme weather events. Potential negative impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without established strategies for adaptation. The main sources of vulnerability and risk to Australia, according to the IPCC 4th Assessment are as follows:31

Increased risk of more intense cyclones and hailstorms (addressed in Module A, Lecture 1.2)

- Risks of loss of life: Cyclone Tracy, Darwin, 25 December 1974, killed 71 people, 16 out at sea, followed by 49 on land and, in 2005, final 6 were declared ‘perished at sea’.32 Cyclone Mahina, Bathurst, Queensland, March 1899, was Australia’s deadliest cyclone and killed over 400 people, including the crews of an estimated 100 sea vessels and an estimated 100 local aborigines.33 As climate changes, scientists forecast increase likelihood of more intense cyclones this century which could cause even greater damage. 34

- Increased damage and disruptions to services, built environment and infrastructure: By 2030, the impacts of extreme events are very likely to exceed the design requirements of services, built environment and infrastructure more frequently. Risks of these events include failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage/sewerage, increased storm and fire damage, and more heatwaves – all of which can cause blackouts and loss of lives.

- Risks of damage and losses in agriculture, forestry, housing and infrastructure: Tropical cyclone Larry, 20 March 2006, did AUD$364 million of damage to crops and state forests, houses and infrastructure in Australia.35

- Increased insurance costs for extreme weather events and higher accident rates: In Australia, around 87 per cent of economic damage due to natural disasters (storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, fires and landslides) is caused by weather-related events.36 From 1967 to 1999,

29 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 200830 Hobday, A., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E., Kunz, T. and Richardson, A. (2007) Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Water Resources, www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/marinelife-parta.pdf, accessed 13 February 200831 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.32 Emergency Management Australia (2006) ‘EMA Disasters Database: Cyclone Tracy’, www.ema.gov.au/ema/emadisasters.nsf/6a1bf6b4b60f6f05ca256d1200179a5b/a70de9a08d7c7fc3ca256d3300057bb5?OpenDocument, accessed 10 November 2008; Morgan, A. (2005) ‘NT Coroner Hands Down Finding on Cyclone Tracy Deaths’, ABC, www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1326359.htm, accessed 10 November 2008.33 Emergency Management Australia (1997) Disasters and Survival: A booklet for Students and the Community, Emergency Management Australia, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, Chapter 7: Cyclone Hazards and Disasters in Hazards,,www.csu.edu.au/faculty/arts/sslib/aemf/HDS/contents.htm, accessed 10 November 2008. 34 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 200835 Bureau of Meteorology (2007) ‘Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry’, www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/, accessed 10 November 2008. 36 Bureau of Transport Economics (2001) Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia, Bureau of Transport Economics Report 103, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, www.btre.gov.au/info.aspx?ResourceId=199&NodeId=58, accessed 3 November 2008.

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these costs averaged AUD$1.13 billion/year, mostly due to floods, severe storms and tropical cyclones. According to the Insurance Disaster Response Organisation database, from 1967 to 2003, 34 per cent of the total Australian economic losses from natural disasters (the largest portion) were a result of hail. Hail damage was involved in 10 of the top 20 insurance losses since 1967. The Sydney hailstorm, 14 April 1999, did AUD$2.67 billion of damage (AUD$2.04 billion was insured), making it the most expensive storm-related natural disaster in Australian history.37

Changes in intense rainfall events (addressed in Module C)

- Increases in rainfall may exceed the coping capacity of current stormwater, wastewater and sewerage systems.

- More intense rainfall may increase flooding, erosion, landslides and damage to infrastructure. Flood ‘disasters’ (with a total cost of AUD$10 million or more) had a greater cumulative cost to Australia between 1967 and 1999 than any other type of natural disaster.38

More Heat Waves and Higher Average Temperatures

- Higher risks of direct and indirect negative health effects on the elderly and the vulnerable: Annual average temperatures over most of Australia are likely to increase by 0.4-2.0°C by 2030 and by 1.0-6.0°C by 2070. There may be slightly less warming in some coastal areas and Tasmania and greater warming in the north-west. By 2050, heat-related deaths are likely to climb by 3,200-5,200 deaths/year.

- Increased risk of bushfires (addressed in Module A, Lecture 1.3): Increased fire danger in Australia is likely to be associated with reduced interval between fires, increased fire intensity, a decrease in fire extinguishments and faster fire spread.39 In the south-east, the frequency of ‘very high’ and ‘extreme’ fire danger days is likely to rise by 4-25 per cent by 2020 and by 15-75 per cent by 2050.40 Modelling41 suggests that ‘fire frequency’ is the variable most affected by climate change, with the average inter-fire interval halved under a scenario of doubled carbon dioxide. Under this scenario, fires would be more likely to spread and less likely to be extinguished.

- Increased risk of dust storms: Drier conditions associated with higher temperatures and less rainfall will lead to greater risk of dust storms. A dust storm in the Canberra metropolitan area on 20 March 2003, recorded 7 times the maximum standard concentration of fine airborne particles of diameter less than 10 micron (PM10).42 The dust not only reduced air quality but also coated much of Canberra.

37 Schuster, S.S., Blong, R.J, Leigh, R.J. and McAneney, K.J. (2005) ‘Characteristics of the 14 April 1999 Sydney hailstorm based on ground observations, weather radar, insurance data and emergency calls’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol 5, no. 5, pp613-620, www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_issues.html, accessed 11 November 2008.38 Bureau of Transport Economics (2001) Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia, Bureau of Transport Economics Report 103, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, p34, www.btre.gov.au/info.aspx?ResourceId=199&NodeId=58, accessed 3 November 2008.39 Cary, G.J. (2002) ‘Importance of changing climate for fire regimes in Australia’, in Bradstock R.A., Williams J.E. and Gill A.M. (eds) Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of A Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp26-46; Tapper, N. (2000) ‘Atmospheric issues for fire management in Eastern Indonesia and northern Australia’, in Russell-Smith, J., Hill, G., Djoeroemana S. and Myers, B. (eds) ‘Fire and Sustainable Agricultural and Forestry Development in Eastern Indonesia and Northern Australia’, Proceedings of an international workshop held at Northern Territory University, Darwin, 13–15 April 1999, pp21-30, www.aciar.gov.au/publication/PR091, accessed 11 November 2008; Williams, A.A., Karoly, D.J. and Tapper, N. (2001) ‘The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change’, Climatic Change, vol 49, pp171-191.40 Hennessy, K., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R. and Ricketts, J. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Fire-Weather in South-East Australia, CSIRO.41 Cary, G.J. (2002) ‘Importance of changing climate for fire regimes in Australia’, in Bradstock R.A., Williams J.E. and Gill A.M. (eds) Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of A Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp26-46.42 ACT Commissioner for Sustainability and the Environment (2003) 2003 State of the Environment Report, Indicator: Outdoor Air Quality, Australian Capital Territory, www.environmentcommissioner.act.gov.au/soe/2003actreport/indicators03/outdoorairquality03, accessed 10 November 2008.

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- More vector-borne diseases from the tropics will spread south: By 2050, the number of people exposed to dengue fever is likely to climb by 0.6-1.4 million.43

- A dramatic rise in the number of summer days over 35°C: By 2050, a dramatic rise in the number of summer days over 35°C is expected. These warmer days will reduce the productivity of outdoor workers, such as construction workers, since they will take off half or all of the day. These warmer days will also increase peak electricity demand due to increased use of air-conditioners during the day. The electricity generation industry will struggle to meet this demand due to lack of water, especially in south-eastern Australia,44 in which the Snowy Mountain Scheme and many coal-fired power plants are located.

Altered rainfall patterns (addressed in Modules B and C)

- Decreases in rainfall for southern and eastern Australia: In Perth, inflows into reservoirs have decreased by 50 per cent since the mid twentieth century while domestic water demand has increased. In the south-eastern states, near-record lows in reservoir water levels were recorded in 2002-2003 due to low rainfall and high temperatures.45 The most recent five year inflow into the Murray River was the lowest ever on record.46

- Decreases in rainfall will provide a constraint on the development of the farming community and significantly decrease production in the Murray Darling food bowl of Australia. Without a mitigation strategy, economic production will fall by 12 per cent by 2030, 49 per cent by 2050 and by 92 per cent by 2100.

- Decreases in rainfall and higher temperatures will increase the risk of algal blooms in water storage dams.

- Higher water temperatures and reduced stream flows will reduce water quality in terms of dissolved oxygen, nutrient and pollution loads and salinity, as well as other water chemistry indicators.

- Decreases in rainfall and higher temperatures will increase urban water costs.

Sea level rise

- Increased chance of damage to coastal buildings, infrastructure and recreational facilities.

- Increased risk of high salinity in some coastal areas resulting in reduced land productivity, as well as damage to buildings and infrastructure.

- Increased risk of salination of surface and groundwater sources in coastal areas.

Disruption of Ocean and Marine Ecosystems

- Increased ocean acidification will cause substantial productivity loss from the world’s oceans, which will damage Australia’s commercial and recreational fishing industries.47

43 Hennessy, K., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R.and Ricketts, J. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Fire-Weather in South-East Australia, CSIRO, www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf, accessed 11 November 2008.44 ABC News Online (2007) ‘CSIRO Warns Vic on Global Warming Impact’, ABC News Online, www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1924167.htm, accessed 13 February 2008.45 Pittock, B. (ed) (2003) Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts, Commonwealth of Australia, pp1-3, www.climatechange.gov.au/science/guide/, accessed 11 November 2008. 46 Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J.P. (eds) (2008) Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, p119, www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session28/doc13.pdf, accessed 11 November 2008.47 Hobday, A., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E., Kunz, T. and Richardson, A. (2007) Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Water Resources, www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/marinelife-parta.pdf, accessed 13 February 2008.

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- Increased sea surface temperature and coral bleaching.

Biodiversity Loss

- Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity: The rate of climate change is very likely to exceed the rates of evolutionary adaptation in many species. The alternative – migration – is very likely to be limited by habitat loss and fragmentation.48 By 2020, significant biodiversity losses are expected, particularly in the ecologically rich Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. For example, over 30 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef has already suffered coral bleaching and it will be entirely lost to bleaching within two decades.49 Damage is also expected to occur to vulnerable ecosystems such as those in the south-west, the Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and alpine areas – many of which are world heritage sites and tourist destinations. For example, in the south-west of Western Australia, native species will migrate south with increasing temperatures but they cannot migrate far before reaching the Southern Ocean.

CSIRO highlight specific risks of inaction on climate change to the Australian tourism, water and primary industries, as well as the infrastructure and insurance industries, at various temperature increases (see Table 1.1.2).

48 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, see ‘Australia and New Zealand’, pp507-540, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.49 Dayton, L. (2007) ‘Reef Gone in 20 Years if Warming Continues’, The Australian, 7 April 2007, www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21516991-601,00.html, accessed 13 February 2008.

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Table 1.1.2: Summary of climate change impacts on Australia across selected industries

Source: CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research (2006)50

50 Preston, B.L. and Jones R.N. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, www.csiro.au/files/files/p6fy.pdf, accessed 13 February 2008.

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Key References Arnell, N.W. (1999) ‘Climate Change and Global Water Resources’, Global Environmental Change, vol 9, ppS31-S46.

Austroads (2004) Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure. Austroads Report AP-R243, www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/climate.change.pdf, accessed 17 September 2008.

Collins, D.A., Della-Marta, P.M., Plummer, N. and Trewin, B.C. (2000) Trends in annual frequencies of extreme temperature events in Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 49, pp277-292.

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research website (2001-02) ‘Current CSIRO Climate Projections’,, www.dar.csiro.au/impacts/future.html, accessed 17 September 2008.

Crimp, S.J., Flood N.R., Carter J.O., Conroy, J.P. and McKeon, G.M. (2002) Evaluation of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Pasture Production – Implications for Livestock Carrying Capacity, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra.

Hales, S., de Wet, N., Maindonald, J. and Woodward, A. (2002) ‘Potential Effect of Population and Climate Changes on Global Distribution of Dengue Fever: An Empirical Model’, The Lancet, vol 360, pp830-834.

Hennessy, K., McInnes, K., Abbs, D., Jones, R., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R., Ricketts, J., Rafter,T., Collins D. and Jones, D. (2004) Climate Change in New South Wales, Part 2: Projected changes in climate extremes, Consultancy report for the New South Wales Greenhouse Office by the Climate Impact Group of CSIRO Atmospheric Research and the National Climate Centre of the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.

Hennessy, K., Whetton, P., Smith, I., Bathols, J., Hutchinson, M. and Sharples, J. (2003) The Impact of Climate Change on Snow Conditions in Mainland Australia, CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999) ‘Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs’, Marine Freshwater Research, vol 50, pp839-66.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Hoegh-Guldberg, H. (2008) The Impact of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and Its Tourist Industry, Report commissioned by the Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, D.R., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A. and Hatziolos, M.E. (2007) ‘Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification’, Science, vol 318, pp1737-42.

Jones, R., Whetton, P., Walsh, K. and Page, C. (2001) Future Impact of Climate Variability, Climate Change and Land Use Change on Water Resources in the Murray-Darling Basin, Overview and Draft Program of Research, CSIRO.

Karoly, D., Risbey, J. and Reynolds, A. (2003) Global Warming Contributes to Australia’s Worst Drought, WWF Australia, www.wwf.org.au, accessed 17 September 2008.

National Research Council (2002) Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, National Academies: Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.

National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (2006) The Economic Significance of the Australian Alpine Resorts, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Victoria.

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IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm, accessed 2 November 2008.

Pittock, B. (ed) (2003) Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts, Commonwealth of Australia, pp1-3, www.climatechange.gov.au/science/guide/, accessed 11 November 2008.

Shneider, S. (2006) An Overview of The Climate Change Problem: An Introduction, Stanford University, http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Climate/ClimateFrameset.html, accessed 17 September 2008.

Stern, N. (2006) Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm, accessed 17 September 2008.

Woodruff, D., Hales, S., Butler, C. and McMichael, A. (2005) Climate Change Health Impacts in Australia: Effects of Dramatic CO2 Emissions Reductions, Australian Conservation Foundation and the Australian Medical Association, Australia.

Walsh, K., Hennessy, K., Jones, R., McInnes, K.L., Page, C. M., Pittock, A.B., Suppiah, R. and Whetton, P. (2001) Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions – Third Annual Report, 1999-2000, CSIRO consultancy report for the Queensland Government, Aspendale.

Whetton, P.H. (2001) Methods Used to Prepare the Ranges of Projected Future Change in Australian Region Temperature and Precipitation, CSIRO, www.dar.csiro.au/impacts/docs/how.pdf, accessed 17 September 2008.

Whetton, P.H., Suppiah, R., McInnes, K.L., Hennessy, K.J. and Jones, R.N. (2002) Climate Change in Victoria: High Resolution Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, CSIRO consultancy report for the Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Victoria.

World Health Organisation (2004) Heatwaves: Risks and Responses, World Health Organization, Geneva.

Other Useful Links

CSIRO website – ‘Climate Change Adaptation Flagship’, www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship.html, accessed 19 September 2008.

Department of Climate Change – ‘Adapting to Climate Change’, www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/index.html, accessed 10 November 2008.

Department of Climate Change – ‘Climate Change Science: Frequently Asked Questions’, www.climatechange.gov.au/science/faq/, accessed 28 October 2008.

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