Naseer Ahmad GillaniNaseer Ahmad GillaniFIEFIE

Climate Change

Water SharingIssues

Increasing Water Deficit

Siltation In

Mega dams

Water Pollution

Glaciers Depletion

Threats

5

ARABIAN SEA

Chenab R

iver

DISPUTED

TERRITORY

INDUS

RIVERKABUL RIVER

Ravi Rive

r

Jhelu

m R

iver

Sutlej River

LEGENDMOUNTAINS

DESERTS

AREA UNDERIRRIGATION

AREA THATCAN BE BROUGHTUNDER IRRIGATION

SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 2007-08

20.1ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE

47.0AREA UNDER IRRIGATION(BY ALL SOURCES)

54.5CULTIVATED AREA(IRRIGATED + BARANI)

74.6AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE196.7GEOGRAPHICAL AREA

AREA (MA)CATEGORY

Indus

Riv

er

Sindh 3.4 MA

Punjab 3.8 MA

KPK 3.0 MA

Baloch. 9.9 MA

TOTAL 20.1 MA

(Barren land available if water can be conserved)

6

Water Availability (Avg 1976-2009) 138.70 MAF Water Requirement for the Country with reference to Accord 1991

(117 MAF)

ProvinceWater Accord Allocation

Water Availability or used

{Avg (1976 -2009)}Shortage /

Excess

Kharif Rabi Total Kharif Rabi Total Value %age

Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 34.16 18.66 52.82 -3.12 -5.6

Sindh 33.94 14.82 48.76 28.95 13.84 42.79 -5.97 -12.2

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

3.48+1.80

5.28

2.30

+ 1.20

3.50

5.78 +3.00 (Civil Canal)

8.78

4.09 2.51

6.60

- 3.00

3.60

-2.18 -24.8

Balochistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 1.23 0.80 2.03 -1.84 -47.5

Total 77.34 37.01 117.35 68.42 35.81 104.23 -13.12 -11.18

Average Water Availability 2000 – 2010 105 MAF(Currently Pakistan is suffering from water shortage cycle)

7

RESERVOIR ORIGINAL PRESENTLOSS DUE TO

SEDIMENTATION

TARBELA9.69

(1976)6.77

2.92 30%

MANGLA5.34

(1968)4.54 0.80

15%

CHASHMA0.72

(1971)0.26 0.46

63%

TOTAL 15.75 11.574.1827%

RESERVOIR CAPACITIES (MAF)

(Nearly a fourth of the Reservoirs silted; need to construct Diamer Basha Dam to augment lost storage)

8

NEW STORAGES CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED

UNDER IMPLEMENTATION/READY FOR EXECUTION (MAF)

MANGLA DAM RAISING – AJK (Substantially Completed; to be test filled in 2010)

2.88

SATPARA DAM (Completion in Dec-2010)

0.05

GOMAL ZAM – FATA(Completion in Dec-2010)

0.89

KURRAM TANGI – FATA (To be started 2011) 0.90

DIAMER-BHASHA – GB/KPK(To be started in 2011)

6.40

SMALL/MEDIUM DAMS (Phase-I&II) 4.90

Total: 13.62

Stand aloneIntegratedStatePublicSocietylocal

ConflictDisturbanceLaw & Order Institutional CollapseRevolutionWar

Scarcity Prestige Independence Sovereignty Economics Development Poverty Hunger Survival

SurvivalMDGsPRSPlife

Equity

Sovereignty

sustainability

water for All

97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining 1%, 20% cannot be captured – inaccessible.

Remaining fresh water globally available is only 0.8% and is finite.

This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in abundance.

43,659 BCM ÷ 6.5 billion people = 6,716 m3/person

Problem: Variability in space and time – rain forest on one hand and desert on other.

South East Asia

Total water availability is 6,698

BCM i.e. 15.3% of the world water

resources against 8.6% of world

population (516 million).

Per capita water availability is

12,980 m3.

Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective

South West Asia

90% of population lives under water stress

conditions – uses 10% more water than fresh

water available. Massive desalinization.

Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…

North East Asia

Total water availability is 3,351 BCM i.e. 7.7% of

world water against 25% of world population. Per

capita water availability is 2,221 m3. Country

wise water availability, Mongolia 138,400

m3/capita; Japan 3,125 m3/capita; R. Korea 2,389

m3/capita and China 2,152 m3/capita.

Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…

South Asia

Total water availability 3,900 BCM/year i.e. only 9% of

world water against 25% of world population. Per

capita water availability is 2,600 m3/person. India has

1/6th of world population and 1/25th water resources i.e.

1,746 BCM with average of 1,740 m3/person but the

variability is extensive. In Brahmaputra – Barak Basin

per capita water availability is 13,400 m3 to about only

300 m3 in the Sabarmati Basin in western part of India.

Regional PerspectiveRegional Perspective cont…cont…

Average rainfall

Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid

countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less

than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than

125 mm. The population and economy are

heavily dependent on an annual influx into

Indus River System of about 154.88 MAF of

water mostly derived from snow and glacier

melt.

Pakistan PerspectivePakistan Perspective

2222

• Surface Water Surface Water 154.88 MAF154.88 MAF• Ground Water:Ground Water:

– Total AreaTotal Area 39.5 Million 39.5 Million AcresAcres

– SalineSaline 24.7 Million 24.7 Million AcresAcres

– Fresh WaterFresh Water 14.8 Million 14.8 Million AcresAcres

– Total Quantity AvailableTotal Quantity Available 59 MAF59 MAF– Present ExtractionPresent Extraction 50 MAF50 MAF– BalanceBalance 9 MAF 9 MAF

(economic limit)(economic limit)

2323

SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL SEASON-WISE & ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS HEAD WITHDRAWALS 1962-63 TO 2002-031962-63 TO 2002-03

SEASON

PRE-MANGLA(1962-67) AVERAGE

POST-MANGLA(1967-76) AVERAGE

POST TARBELA

(1976-2003)

AVERAGE

ADDITIONAL WATER AFTER

MANGLA & TARBELA

KHARIF 62.38 65.02 67.77 5.39 8.6%

RABI 28.0 30.78 36.80 8.80 31.4%

TOTAL 90.38 95.80 104.57 14.19 15.7%

(MAF)(MAF)

2424

98.6

23

0

22

0

21

0

20

0

19

0

18

0

17

0

16

0

15

0

14

0

13

0

12

0

11

0

10

0

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

01951 1961 1972 1981 1992 2002 2012 2020 2025

PER

CA

PIT

A A

VA

ILA

BIL

ITY

(M

) 3

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

CA

NA

L D

IVER

SIO

NS

(M

AF)

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

YEARS

23

0

22

0

21

0

20

0

19

0

18

0

17

0

16

0

15

0

14

0

13

0

12

0

11

0

10

0

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

AFTERTARBELA

INDEPENDENCE

AFTERMANGLA

104

106

PER

CAPITA

AVAILA

BILITY

1700 m3

1992

1350 m32002

1000 m32012

885 m32020

5650 m3(1951)

WATER SHORT

COUNTRY

216.8

178

138

POPULATIONGROWTH

225

550 m32025

BEFORE TREATY

AFTER TREAT

Y

2525

India 93% Pakistan 90% China 87% Egypt 85% Italy 59% Japan 50%

• KoreaKorea46%46%

• USAUSA42%42%

• GermanyGermany20%20%

• FranceFrance15%15%

• UKUK 3%3%

26

1,300,000 liters/person/year (i.e. 3356 liters/day which is 70 times more

than 50 liter/person/day for domestic purposes)

• Water requirement to produce one loaf - 550 liters (10 times more than 50/liters/person/day)

• Water required to produce 100 grams of beef - 7,000 liters(140 times more than 50/liters/person/day)

2727

Pakistan’s dependence on single river Pakistan’s dependence on single river

system is highly vulnerable and has little system is highly vulnerable and has little

flexibility as compared to most of the flexibility as compared to most of the

countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river

basins and diversity of water resources. If basins and diversity of water resources. If

the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus

Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it – and

unfortunately we are very close to it.unfortunately we are very close to it.

2828

There is no additional water to be injected

into the system and there is no feasible

intervention which would enable Pakistan

to mobilize appreciable more water that it

now uses. Pakistan uses more than 90% of

water for irrigation. Non-agricultural water

uses are going to increase manifold in

future.

2929

Without Mangla & Chashma

Kharif88%

Rabi12% Rabi Kharif

With Tarbela Dam

Kharif79%

Rabi21% Rabi Kharif

Present Position

Kharif81%

Rabi19% Rabi Kharif

With Mangla & Chashma

Kharif84%

Rabi16% Rabi Kharif

(INCREASE OF 6 MAF)

(DECREASE OF 3 MAF)

(INCREASE OF 13 MAF)

3030

Total brought into the System 33.0 M. Tons Total Salt deposited in Indus

Basin Irrigation System 24.0 M. Tons Wash out of System 9.0 M. Tons Salt deposited in Punjab 13.6 M. Tons Salt deposited in Sindh 10.4 M. Tons

3131

Canada 8.72 kg/ m3

USA 1.56 kg/ m3

China 0.82 kg/ m3

India 0.39 kg/ m3

Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m3

3232

France 7.60 T/ha Egypt 5.99 T/ha Saudi Arabia 5.36 T/ha Punjab (India) 4.80 T/ha Punjab (Pak) 2.30 T/ha Pakistan (Average) 2.24 T/ha

3333

World (Average) 8.60 US$ Developed Countries 30-40

US$ Malaysia 10 US$ Pakistan 0.34 US$

3434

America 6,150 m3/person Australia 5,000 m3/person Pakistan 132 m3/person

3535

Egypt (Aswan) 1,000 days (Niles) America 900 days (Colorado) Australia 600 days South Africa 500 days (Orange

River) India 120 to 220 days Pakistan 30 days

Upto April 2008, 1,017 MAF of water has gone to the sea unutilized over the last 30 years which is equivalent to 10 years of canal withdrawals. In monitory terms, the value of unutilized water is US$ 149 billion after deducting 300 MAF required for environmental purposes.

For better water management, 40% of total water availability is required for storage, Pakistan’s storage capacity is only about 7% of total available water.

Climate Change

Indus Waters Treaty

Transboundary pollution

Pakistan should demand minimum environmental flows for eastern rivers to protect biodiversity.

Kabul River contributes 21 MAF

Pakistan needs both software and hardware solutions for future water management.

Points for Urgent AttentionPoints for Urgent Attention

GOAL 1: Promote water as a key part of sustainable national development.

GOAL 2: Address critical development challenges.

GOAL 3: Reinforce knowledge sharing and communications.

GOAL 4: Build a more effective participation

4242

Total Completed Large Dams 4,291 Nos. Presently under Construction Dams 676 Nos. Total Existing Storage Capacity 323 BCM Additional Storage required by 2050 180 BCM Additional Dams to be constructed

by the year 2050 2,500 Nos. Total Hydro Power Developed 13,000 MW Total Potential Available 84,000 MW

China has constructed 84,000 dams since 1949 out of which 24,000 are large dams.