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Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews December 14, 2011 Laura Weintraub

Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

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Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews. December 14, 2011 Laura Weintraub. Review of Model Update Approach. Goal: develop best possible tools given reasonable time, information, and funding - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient

WQS and TMDL Reviews

December 14, 2011

Laura Weintraub

Page 2: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Review of Model Update Approach• Goal: develop best possible tools given reasonable time,

information, and funding• Due diligence to ensure models work well for recent time period• Model update steps:

– Extend models to run through 12/2008– Document changes to models and databases, results of model confirmation

• Disseminate information to the focus stakeholder group– Original calibration reports (Systech 2007, LimnoTech 2008)– Model update report (LimnoTech November 28, 2011)

2

Page 3: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Model Linkage – Observed Conditions

WatershedModel

WaterQuantity

Water QualityModel

Land Use

ClimateSoil Types

Management Practices

Reservoir Releases

WaterQuality

Pollutant Loads

WWTPs

WARMF TRHSPF

3

Page 4: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

WARMF Updates4

Page 5: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Recent WARMF Enhancements (post-calibration)

• Model Version Update (October, 2008)– Received from Systech – Finer spatial resolution, general database update and

recalibration• Temperature improvements (Systech)

– Bedrock heat transfer, river ice formation, warming from river friction

5

Page 6: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

WARMF Database Updates through 2008

6

Data Type Data Source Updates Made to:

Climate NCDC, SNOTEL Precipitation, temperature, wind, cloud cover, dew pt., air pressure

Air Quality CASTNET, NADP Wet / dry air deposition

Diversions FWM, TROA Information System, Flows for all active diversions within watershed

Point sources TMWRF, NDEP TMWRF plus 4 minor sources

Reservoir releases USGS Releases from managed reservoirs

Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) NLCD, Washoe County Representative of 2006 LULC for entire watershed

Observed Hydrology USGS, TRIG All USGS gages within watershed

Observed Water Quality TMWRF, TRIGReal-time and grab water quality samples at stations throughout watershed

Page 7: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Limited WARMF Model Changes• Adjusted initial soil moisture reflects start of new

time period• Set breakpoint for updated land use / land cover

– Pre-2002 simulations: old GIS layer circa late 1990’s– Post-2002: updated GIS layer circa 2006

• Adjusted organic carbon and nutrient soil concentrations post-2002– Rapid land use change; model does not completely capture impacts

with just surface loading changes– Consistent with findings of Chalk Creek study (JBR, 2010)

• Directly specified reservoir releases (historical data) rather than modeling reservoir operations

7

Page 8: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Flow at Reno/Sparks

80

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Flow

(cfs

)

Date

Flow at Reno/Sparks

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Flow

(cfs

)

Water Year

Truckee River at Reno/SparksAverage Flow Rate

Model Observed

Page 9: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Flow at North Truckee Drain

9

02468

101214161820

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Flow

(cfs

)

Water Year

North Truckee DrainAverage Flow Rate

Model Observed

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Flow

(cfs

)

Date

Flow at North Truckee Drain

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

Page 10: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Flow at Steamboat Creek

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Flow

(cfs

)

Date

Flow at Steamboat Creek

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Flow

(cfs

)

Water Year

Steamboat CreekAverage Flow Rate

Model Observed

Page 11: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

11

Total Nitrogen at Reno/Sparks

00.1

0.2

0.30.4

0.5

0.60.7

0.8

0.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

Truckee River at Reno/SparksAverage Total Nitrogen

Model Observed

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Nitrogen at Reno/Sparks

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

Page 12: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

12

Total Nitrogen at North Truckee Drain

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Nitrogen at North Truckee Drain

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

North Truckee DrainAverage Total Nitrogen

Model Observed

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 13: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

13

Total Nitrogen at Steamboat Creek

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Nitrogen at Steamboat Creek

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

Steamboat CreekAverage Total Nitrogen

Model Observed

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 14: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Total Phosphorus at Reno/Sparks

140

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Phosphorus at Reno/Sparks

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

Truckee River at Reno/SparksAverage Total Phosphorus

Model

Observed averages are not shown because 76% of values are less than the practical quantification limit of 0.04 mg/L.

PQL = 0.04 mg/L

Page 15: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Total Phosphorus at North Truckee Drain

15

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

North Truckee DrainAverage Total Phosphorus

Model Observed

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Phosphorus at North Truckee Drain

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

Page 16: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Total Phosphorus at Steamboat Creek

16

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Date

Total Phosphorus at Steamboat Creek

Modeled (WARMF) Observed

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Conc

entr

ation

(mg/

L)

Water Year

Steamboat CreekAverage Total Phosphorus

Model Observed

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 17: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Summary of WARMF Results• Flow

– Strong model performance at Truckee River at Sparks (upstream boundary for TRHPSF): r2 = 0.87

– Moderate performance at North Truckee Drain and Steamboat Creek• Day to day variability is small compared to Truckee River• Although variability not captured well, model accurately describes

average flows

• Nutrients– Model predictions fall within range of uncertainty of

observed data for large majority of years– Results consistent with previous calibration

17

Page 18: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Known Limitations in WARMF Performance

• Snow melt peaks under-predicted during wettest years– Does not impact critical low flow periods

• Summer residential irrigation not captured (potable / reuse water)– Little impact to summer flows in Truckee River downstream of

confluence with Steamboat Creek and NTD• Remaining underprediction of spring streamflow

temperatures– Sensitivity analysis showed only minor changes to DO with higher

temperatures during this non-critical late winter / early spring period

18

Above limitations do not preclude the use of the model for intended need

Page 19: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Updates19

Page 20: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Recent TRHSPF Enhancements (post-calibration)

• Organic labile nutrient representation– New state variables for org. labile nitrogen and organic labile

phosphorus– No longer derived indirectly from BOD and phytoplankton

stoichiometry– Directly accounts for settling and decay

• TRHSPF linkage with WARMF– Upstream and tributary boundary conditions from WARMF– Provides capability to evaluate Truckee River response to changes in

watershed activity

• Implemented discrete segment for Gilpin Spill bypass– Model accounts for potentially “depleted” segment between Derby

Dam and Gilpin Spill return20

Page 21: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Database Updates through 2008

21

Data Type Data Source Updates Made to:

Climate (Hourly) NCDC, WRCCAir Temperature, Dew Point, Wind, Cloud Cover, Solar Radiation (by reach)

Diversions FWM, TROA Information System Flow for 10 diversions

Point Sources TMWRF WQ input updated for 16 parameters

Observed Streamflow USGS Flow for 6 locations

Observed Water Quality TMWRF (YSI & Grab)

WQ (YSI) updated for 3 parameters at 9 locations.

WQ (Grab) for 18 parameters at 9 locations.

Groundwater Repeat of time series based on Nowlin (1987) / Brock (1992) / Pohll (2001)

WQ input updated for 13 parameters

Page 22: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Limited TRSHPF Model Changes• Flow balance corrections

– Truckee Canal and Gilpin Spill flow based on USGS gages– Known limitations in gage accuracy– Truckee Canal flows adjusted to prevent negative Truckee River flows

for periods of obvious mismatch – “error” sent down the canal

• Addressed occasional model instability when model segment flow dropped to “zero”– Applied minimal “floor” segment volume (100 ft3)– Holds back minimal flow in segment during unstable timestep– Result: adjustment to flow out of segment < 0.05 cfs

22

Page 23: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Flow Results

23

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Stre

amflo

w (c

fs)

Calendar Year

Average Annual StreamflowVista

Model Data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Stre

amflo

w (c

fs)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Streamflow"Near" Tracy

Model Data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Stre

amflo

w (c

fs)

Calendar Year

Average Annual StreamflowBelow Derby Dam

Model Data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Stre

amflo

w (c

fs)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Streamflow"Near" Nixon

Model Data

Page 24: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Flow Results

24

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Fl

ow (c

fs)

Flow at VistaModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (USGS)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Flow

(cfs

)

Flow below Derby DamModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (USGS)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Flow

(cfs

)

Flow near NixonModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (USGS)

Page 25: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Total Nitrogen Results

25

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total NitrogenLockwood

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total NitrogenTracy/Clark

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total NitrogenPainted Rock

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total NitrogenWadsworth

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 26: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Total Nitrogen Results

26

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Total Nitrogen at LockwoodModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Total Nitrogen at Tracy/ClarkModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(mg/

L)

Total Nitrogen at Painted RockModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

Page 27: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Total Phosphorus Results

27

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus (

mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total PhosphorusLockwood

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus (

mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total PhosphorusTracy/Clark

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus (

mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total PhosphorusPainted Rock

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus (

mg/

L)

Calendar Year

Average Annual Total PhosphorusWadsworth

Model Data

Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 28: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Total Phosphorus Results

28

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus

(mg/

L)

Total Phosphorus at LockwoodModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus

(mg/

L)

Total Phosphorus at Tracy/ClarkModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus

(mg/

L)

Total Phosphorus at Painted RockModeled (TRHSPF) Observed (TMWRF) Observed (CMP)

Page 29: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

29

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2000 5/1/2000 8/30/2000 12/29/2000 4/29/2001 8/28/2001 12/27/2001 4/27/2002 8/26/2002 12/25/2002

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Lockwood(2000-2002)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2003 5/2/2003 8/31/2003 12/30/2003 4/29/2004 8/28/2004 12/27/2004 4/27/2005 8/26/2005 12/25/2005

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Lockwood(2003-2005)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2006 5/2/2006 8/31/2006 12/30/2006 4/30/2007 8/29/2007 12/28/2007 4/27/2008 8/26/2008 12/25/2008

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Lockwood(2006-2008)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

Page 30: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2000 5/1/2000 8/30/2000 12/29/2000 4/29/2001 8/28/2001 12/27/2001 4/27/2002 8/26/2002 12/25/2002

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark(2000-2002)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2003 5/2/2003 8/31/2003 12/30/2003 4/29/2004 8/28/2004 12/27/2004 4/27/2005 8/26/2005 12/25/2005

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark(2003-2005)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2006 5/2/2006 8/31/2006 12/30/2006 4/30/2007 8/29/2007 12/28/2007 4/27/2008 8/26/2008 12/25/2008

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark(2006-2008)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

Page 31: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

31

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2000 5/1/2000 8/30/2000 12/29/2000 4/29/2001 8/28/2001 12/27/2001 4/27/2002 8/26/2002 12/25/2002

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Painted Rock(2000-2002)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2003 5/2/2003 8/31/2003 12/30/2003 4/29/2004 8/28/2004 12/27/2004 4/27/2005 8/26/2005 12/25/2005

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Painted Rock(2003-2005)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2006 5/2/2006 8/31/2006 12/30/2006 4/30/2007 8/29/2007 12/28/2007 4/27/2008 8/26/2008 12/25/2008

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Painted Rock(2006-2008)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

Page 32: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

32

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2000 5/1/2000 8/30/2000 12/29/2000 4/29/2001 8/28/2001 12/27/2001 4/27/2002 8/26/2002 12/25/2002

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Wadsworth(2000-2002)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2003 5/2/2003 8/31/2003 12/30/2003 4/29/2004 8/28/2004 12/27/2004 4/27/2005 8/26/2005 12/25/2005

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Wadsworth(2003-2005)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2006 5/2/2006 8/31/2006 12/30/2006 4/30/2007 8/29/2007 12/28/2007 4/27/2008 8/26/2008 12/25/2008

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Wadsworth(2006-2008)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

Page 33: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2000 5/1/2000 8/30/2000 12/29/2000 4/29/2001 8/28/2001 12/27/2001 4/27/2002 8/26/2002 12/25/2002

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam(2000-2002)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2003 5/2/2003 8/31/2003 12/30/2003 4/29/2004 8/28/2004 12/27/2004 4/27/2005 8/26/2005 12/25/2005

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam(2003-2005)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/1/2006 5/2/2006 8/31/2006 12/30/2006 4/30/2007 8/29/2007 12/28/2007 4/27/2008 8/26/2008 12/25/2008

Diss

olve

d Ox

ygen

(mg/

L)

Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam(2006-2008)

Observed (YSI) Modeled Range (TRHSPF)

Page 34: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Prediction of Annual Nutrient Loads

• Noted limitations in WARMF-predicted snow melt peaks

• Important to adequately predict total annual loads from Truckee River to downstream water bodies

• Compared with load estimations from data– Results within range of

uncertainty of LOADEST results for majority of years 34

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Nitr

ogen

(lb/yr

)

Calendar Year

Total NitrogenAnnual Load Above Derby Dam

Model (TRHSPF) Data (LOADEST)

Error bars represent the 95% confidence interval of the mean.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus (

lb/yr

)

Calendar Year

Total PhosphorusAnnual Load Above Derby Dam

Model (TRHSPF) Data (LOADEST)

Error bars represent the 95% confidence interval of the mean.

Page 35: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Summary of TRHSPF Results• Flow

– R2 ranges between 0.85 to 0.88 for all stations– Rating of “very good”

• Nutrients– Model predictions fall within range of uncertainty of

observed data for large majority of years– Observed error statistics consistent with original

calibration• Dissolved Oxygen

– Time series plots and observed error statistics consistent with original calibration

35

Page 36: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Summary of Model Update• Confirmation of WARMF and TRHSPF for 2000-2008

period – Model updated to reflect rapid regional growth through

2006• Both models are ready for use to support the third-

party WQS and TMDL review efforts• Third-parties welcome comments and questions

from Focus Stakeholder group

36

Page 37: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Next Technical Steps in WQS Review Process

• Solicit feedback from stakeholder group on modeling tools – Submit comments by January 4, 2012

• Construct / run a set of scenario runs– Establish representative low flow– Link flow management model with WQ models– Vary N and P concentrations DO response

• Document any recommendations for revised WQS

• Submit report to NDEP for WQS Review 37

Page 38: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Questions?

38

Page 39: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

EXTRA SLIDES

39

Page 40: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Model Database Updates: WARMF Land Use / Land Cover

• Old Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) data reflective of late 1990’s

• Rapid growth and development through 2006• New LULC reflective of recent growth• Combination of several datasets

– 2006 National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) – underlying base layer– 2010 Washoe County / Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency –

developed parcel data supersedes NLCD data– Site-specific additions based on “parks” layer /Google Earth: ski

resorts, golf courses, parks, animal feeding operation

40

Page 41: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

41

Page 42: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

42

Late 1990’s currently in WARMF

Page 43: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

43

New 2006/2007 layer for import to WARMF(increased development)

Page 44: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

TRHSPF Modifications for Gilpin Spill• Truckee Canal return flow 7.5

miles downstream of Derby Dam• Allows for fine tuning of TCID

diversions and safety control to return water to river quickly

44

Page 45: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Gilpin Spill in TRHPSF• Return flow at Gilpin Spill is ungaged

– Typically 40-50 cfs is returned, capacity of 2700 cfs • 7.5 Mile Reach between Derby Dam and Gilpin Spill

– Historically as low as 3 cfs– Recent USGS flows higher flow conditions

• TRHSPF previously only diverted “Net” Truckee Canal diversion flow (no bypass from Gilpin Spill)– No additional depletion in stretch just below Derby

• Need to accommodate possible depleted conditions in WQS/TMDL analysis

45

Page 46: Water Quality Model Updates to Support Truckee River Nutrient WQS and TMDL Reviews

Gilpin Spill in TRHSPF “Improved”• Model Gilpin Spill explicitly• Calculate diversion and return based on USGS flows• Add a model segment to represent Gilpin Spill “bypass”• Assume water quality in the return is the same as Derby

Dam

46

301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330

-USGS Gage

Notes:

"Total" Truckee Canal = TR near Tracy – TR below Derby Dam "Net" Truckee Canal = Truckee Canal Near Wadsworth Gilpin Spill = “Total” Truckee Canal Flow Diversion – “Net” Truckee Canal Flow DiversionTR at Wadsworth = TR Below Derby Dam + Gilpin Spill – Ag Diversions + Ag Returns

Truckee River

Truckee Canal

Gilpin Spill

Vista(010350000)

Below Derby Dam(010351600)

Wadsworth(010351650)

Truckee Canal Truckee Canal near Wadsworth

Painted Rock

Near Tracy(010350340)

Lockwood

TCIDtot = TR near Tracy – TR below DerbyTCIDnet = Truckee Canal near WadworthGilpin Spill = TCIDtot - TCIDnet