Walt_International Relations_One World, Many Theories

8/10/2019 Walt_International Relations_One World, Many Theories

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International

Relations:

One W orld,

M any Theories

by Stephen M W alt

W

y s h o u l d p o l i c y m a k e r s a n d p r a c t i t i o n e r s

c a r e a b o u t t h e s c h o l a r l y s t u d y o f i n t e r n a -

t io n a l a f fa ir s? T h o s e w h o c o n d u c t f o r e ig n

p o l i c y o f t e n d i s m i ss a c a d e m i c t h e o r is ts f r eq u e n t ly ,

o n e m u s t a d m i t , w i t h g o o d r e a s o n ) , b u t t h e r e i s a n i n e s c a p a b l e l i n k

b e t w e e n t h e a b s tr a c t w o r m o f t h e o r y a n d t h e r e a l w o r m o f p o li cy . W e

n e e d t h e o r i e s t o m a k e s e n s e o f t h e b l i z z a r d o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t b o m -

b a rd s us d a il y. E v e n p o l i c y m a k e r s w h o a r e c o n t e m p t u o u s o f t h e o r y

m u s t r e l y o n t h e i r o w n ( o f t e n u n s t a t e d ) i d e a s a b o u t h o w t h e w o r l d

w o r k s i n o r d e r t o d e c i d e w h a t t o d o . I t i s h a r d t o m a k e g o o d p o l i c y i f

o n e ' s b a s i c o r g a n i z in g p r in c ip l e s a r e f l a w e d , j u s t a s i t is h a r d t o c o n s t r u c t

g o o d t h e o r i e s w i t h o u t k n o w i n g a l o t a b o u t t h e r e a l w o r l d . E v e r y o n e u se s

t h e o r i e s - - w h e t h e r h e o r sh e k n o w s i t o r n o t - - a n d d i sa g re e m e n ts ab o u t

p o l i c y u s u a l ly r e s t o n m o r e f u n d a m e n t a l d i s a g re e m e n t s a b o u t t h e b a s i c

f o r c e s t h a t s h a p e i n t e r n a t i o n a l o u t c o m e s .

T a k e , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e c u r r e n t d e b a t e o n h o w t o r e sp o n d t o C h i n a .

F r o m o n e p e r s p e c ti v e, C h i n a s a s c e n t is t h e l at e st e x a m p l e o f t h e t e n -

S T E P H E N M . W A L T i s profes sor of pol it ica l s c ience an d m as ter of the social s c ience coll e-

giate divis ion at the Univers ity of Chicago. He is a m em ber of FOR EIGN POLICY'seditorial board.

S P R I N G 1 9 9 8 29


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nternational Relations

den cy for rising powers to a l ter the global ba lance o f pow er in poten-

t ia lly dangerous ways , especia l ly as the ir grow ing inf luence m akes the m

more ambit ious . From another perspect ive , the key to China ' s future

co nd uc t is w he the r i ts behavio r wi l l be m odif ied by i ts in tegra t ion into

wo r ld markets and by th e ( inevitable?) spread of dem ocrat ic principles .

F rom ye t ano ther v iew poin t , r e la t ions be tween C hin a and th e r est o f

the wo r ld wil l be shap ed by issues of cul ture and ident ity: W il l C hi na

see i tsel f (and be seen by others) as a norm al me m ber of the wo r ld com -

m un ity or a s ingular society th at deserves special trea tm ent?

In the same w ay, the debate over NA 'rO expansion looks dif ferent

dep end ing on w hic h theo ry on e employs . From a rea list perspective ,

NATO expans ion is an e ffort to ex tend W es te rn in f lue nce - -we l l beyond

the t radi t ional sphere of U .S . vi ta l in teres ts - -du r ing a per iod of Russ-

Jan weakness and is l ikely to provoke a harsh response from Moscow.

From a l ibera l perspect ive , however , expansion wil l re inforce the

nasc ent dem ocracies of C en tra l Europe an d exte nd NATO's conf l ic t -

management mechanisms to a po ten t ia l ly tu rbu len t r eg ion . A th i rd

v iew m ight s tress the va lue of incorpora t ing the Czech Republ ic, Hu n-

gary , and Poland w i th in th e W es te rn securi ty commun i ty , whose m em -

bers sha re a com m on iden t i ty tha t has m ade w ar la rgely un th inkab le .

N o s ing le a pp r oa c h c a n c a p tu r e a ll t he c om ple x i ty o f c on t e m por a r y

wo r ld pol i t ics . Therefo re , we a re bet te r of f w i th a diverse array of com -

pe t ing ideas r a the r t ha n a sing le theore t ica l o r thodoxy . C om pe t i t ion

be tween theor ies he lps r evea l the i r s t r engths and weaknesses and

spurs subsequent r e f inem ents , whi le r evea l ing flaws in c on ven t ion a l

w i s dom . A l though w e s hou ld t a ke c a r e t o e m pha s i z e i nve n t ive ne s s

ove r i nve c t ive , w e s hou ld w e lc om e a nd e nc our a ge the he t e r oge ne i ty

of con tem pora ry schola r sh ip .

W H E n E A n E W E C O M IN G F n O M

T h e study of internatio nal affairs is best understood as a protracted com -

pe tition b etw een th e realist, liberal, and radical traditions. R ealism e m ph a-

sizes th e end uring propensity for conflict betw ee n state s; liberalism

identifies several w ay s to mitigate these conflictive tendencies; an d th e

radical trad ition describes ho w th e entire system of state relations m igh t be

transformed. Th e boundaries b etw een these traditions are som ew hat fuzzy

and a nu mb er of impo r tant works do no t f it neat ly into any o f them , but

debates w ithin a nd am ong th em hav e largely defm ed the discipline.

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alt

Re a / / s m

Rea l ism was the do m inan t theore t ica l t rad i tion th rougho ut the C old

W ar. I t depicts in tern ation al affairs as a s truggle for powe r am on g self-

intereste d states an d is general ly pessimist ic abo ut th e prospects for

e l imina t ing conf l ic t and w ar. Rea li sm do m ina ted in the C old W ar years

because i t p rov ided sim ple but powerful e xp lanation s for war, all iances,

imperia li sm, obs tac les to coopera t ion, and oth er in ternat ion al ph en om -

ena, an d because i ts emph as is on com pet i t io n was cons is tent w i th th e

centra l fea tures of t he A m erican -So vie t r iva lry.

Rea lism is n o t a s ingle theory, of course, and real is t th ou gh t evolv ed

considerably thro ug ho ut th e Co ld W ar. Classical real is ts such as H ans

M orge n tha u a nd Re i nh o l d N i e buhr be l i e ved tha t sta te s, l ike hum a n

beings, had an inna te desire to do m ina te o the rs , whic h l ed the m to f igh t

wars. Morgenthau also stressed the virtues of the classical, multipolat;

balance-of-pow er system a nd saw th e bipolar r iva lry betw een th e U ni t -

ed Sta tes a nd the Sov ie t U n io n as especia lly dangerous .

By contras t, the neoreal is t theory adv ance d by K en ne th W altz

ignored hu m an na ture and focused o n the e ffects o f the in te rna t iona l

system. For Wal tz , th e internat ion al sys tem con s isted of a n um be r of

great powers, each seeking to survive. B ecause the system is anarch ic

( i.e., th ere is no centra l au thor i ty to protec t s tates f rom on e a noth er) ,

each s ta te has to survive o n i ts own. Waltz argued th at this con di t io n

would lead weaker s ta tes to balance agains t , ra ther than bandwagon

with, more powerful r iva ls . And contrary to Morgenthau, he c la imed

th at bipolarity was m or e stable th an mu ltipolarity.

A n imp ortant ref inem ent to rea lism was the add i t ion of offense-

defense theory, as laid out by Robert Jervis , George Quester, and

Stephen Van Evem. These scholars argued that war was more l ike ly

w he n s ta tes co uld con que r each oth er easily. W h e n defense was eas ier

th an offense, however , secur ity was mo re plent iful , incent ives to exp and

dec l ined , and coopera t ion could b lossom. A n d i f de fense had the

advantage , an d s ta tes could dis t inguish be twe en offensive an d defens ive

weapons , th en s ta tes could acquire th e m eans to defen d them selves

w ithou t threate nin g others , thereby dam pe nin g th e effec ts of anarchy.

For the se defensive realists, states m erely sou gh t to survive an d great

powers could gu arantee the ir securi ty by forming balancin g all iances an d

ch oo sing defens ive military p ostures (such as retaliatory nu clear forces).

N o t surpris ingly, W altz an d m ost oth er neorealists bel iev ed th at th e

U ni t ed Sta tes was extremely secure for most of the C old W ar. Th eir

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principle fear was th at i t m igh t squande r i ts favorable posit ion by adopt-

ing a n over ly aggress ive fore ign policy. Thus , by th e end of the C old War ,

realism had mo ved away from M orgenthau 's da rk brooding about hu m an

natu re an d taken on a s lightly mo re opt imis t ic tone .

iberalism

T he pr inc ipa l cha l len ge to r ea li sm cam e f rom a broad f ami ly of liber-

a l theor ies . O ne s t rand o f l ibe ral thoug ht a rgued tha t eco no m ic in te r -

dependence would d i scourage s ta tes f rom us ing force aga ins t each

oth er because warfare w ould thr ea ten ea ch s ide 's prosperi ty . A seco nd

s t r and , o f ten assoc ia ted wi th P res iden t Woodrow Wilson , saw the

spread of dem ocracy as the key to w or ld peace , based on the c la im tha t

democra t ic s ta tes were inheren t ly more peacefu l than au thor i ta r ian

s t a t e s . A th i r d , m or e r e c e n t t he o r y a r gue d tha t i n t e r na t i ona l

ins t itu t ions such as the In te rna t iona l Energy A gen cy and the In te r-

na t io na l M one ta ry Fund c ould he lp overco m e selfish s ta te behavior,

m ain ly by enco urag ing s ta tes to forego im m edia te gains for the grea te r

benef it s o f endur in g coope ra t ion .

A ltho ug h some l ibera ls fl ir ted w ith th e idea that new t ransnat ional

ac tor s , e spec ia l ly the mul t ina t iona l corpora t ion , were gradua l ly

en croa chin g on th e pow er of s tates , l iberalism generally saw states as th e

cen tral players in intern ation al affairs. A ll l iberal the ories imp lied that

coop era t ion was more pervasive tha n ev en the defensive vers ion of rea l-

ism allowed, bu t ea ch view offered a different recipe for prom oting i t.

R a d / c d A p ~ o a c h e s

U nt i l the 1980s, marx ism was the m ain a l te rna tive to the mains t r eam

realis t and l iberal tradit ions. Where realism and l iberalism took the

state system for granted, marxism offered both a different explanation

for internat io nal co nf l ic t an d a bluepr int for fund am enta l ly transform-

ing the exis ting intern at iona l order.

O r tho do x marxis t theory saw capi ta lism as the centra l cause of in ter -

na t ion al conf l ic t . Capi ta l ist s ta tes bat t led e ach o ther as a con sequ ence

o f th eir ince ssan t struggle for profits an d b attle d socialist states b ecau se

they saw in them the seeds of the i r own des t ruc t ion . Neomarx is t

depen dency theory , by cont r as t , f ocused on r e la t ions be tw een

adv ance d capita l is t powers an d less develop ed states and argued that the

form er - - a ided by an unh oly a l l iance wi th the ru ling classes o f the

developing wo rld had grow n r ich by exploi t ing the lat ter. T he solu-

3 F O R E I G N P O L I C Y


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International Relations

t io n was to ov erthro w the se parasit ic 61ites an d install a revolu tiona ry

gove r nm e n t c om m i t t e d to a u tonom ous de ve lopm e n t .

B oth o f these theo r ies w ere largely discredi ted before the C old W ar

e ve n e nde d . T h e e x t e nsive h is to r y o f e c on om ic a nd m i l it a ry c ooper a -

t ion am ong the advan ced indus t ria l powers show ed tha t cap i ta l ism d id

not inev i tab ly lead to conf l ic t . The b i t t e r sch isms tha t d iv ided the

com m unis t wor ld show ed tha t soc ia lism d id no t a lways prom ote ha r -

mony. Dependency theory suf fered s imilar empir ica l se tbacks as i t

bec am e increas ingly c lear tha t , f irs t, ac t ive par t ic ipat ion in th e w or ld

economy was a bet ter route to prosper i ty than autonomous socia l is t

deve lopment ; and , second , many deve lop ing count r ie s p roved them-

selves qu i te cap able o f bargaining successfully w ith m ult in at ion al cor -

pora t ions and o the r capi ta lis t ins t i tu tions .

As marxism succumbed to i ts var ious fa i l ings , i t s mant le was

assumed by a g roup of theor is t s wh o bor row ed heavi ly f rom th e wave

of pos tmodem wr i t ings in l i t e r a ry c r i t i c i sm and soc ia l theory . This

decon s t ruc t ion is t approac h was open ly skep t ica l o f the e ffort to

devise genera l or universa l theor ies such as rea l ism or l ibera l ism.

Indeed , i t s p roponents emphas ized the impor tance of l anguage and

discourse in shap ing socia l outcom es . How ever , because the se scholars

focused in i t ia l ly on c r it ic iz ing the m ains t r eam parad igms bu t d id n o t

of fer pos i t ive a l ternat ives to them, they remained a se l f -conscious ly

d is s iden t m inor i ty for mo s t o f the 1980s.

o m e s t i c P o l it ic s

N ot a l l Co ld W ar schola rsh ip on in te rna t iona l a ffa irs f it nea t ly in to the

realist , l iberal, or m arxist paradigms. In par t icular , a nu m be r of im por-

tan t w orks focused on th e character ist ics of s ta tes, go vern m enta l orga-

nizat ions , or ind ividual leaders . T h e dem ocra t ic s t rand o f l ibera l theory

f its und er this h eading , as do the effor ts of scholars such as G rah am

A ll i son and Joh n S te inbrun er to use organizat ion theory and bu reau-

cra t ic pol i t ics to exp la in fore ign pol icy behavior , an d those of Jervis,

I rving Janis, and others , wh ich ap pl ied socia l an d c og ni t ive psycholo-

gy. For the m ost par t, these ef forts did no t seek to prov ide a ge nera l the-

ory of in te rna t iona l beh avior bu t to iden ti fy o th e r f ac tor s tha t m ight

lead s ta tes to be hav e con trary to th e p redic t ions of th e rea lis t or l iber-

a l approaches . Thus , much of th is l i te ra ture should be regarded as a

complement to the th ree main pa rad igms r a the r than as a r iva l

app roach for analysis of the intern at ion al sys tem as a wh ole .

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alt

N W W R I N K L E S IN O L D P R D I G M S

Scho larship o n inte m at io na l affa irs has divers if ied s ignif icantly s ince

the e nd o f the Co ld Wa r . N on- A m e r i c a n vo ic e s a r e m ore p rom ine n t , a

wider range of method s an d theor ies a re seen as l eg it ima te , and new

issues such as e th n ic conf l ic t , the env i ronm ent , and the fu ture o f the

s ta te have bee n p laced on the agenda of schola rs everywhere .

Yet th e sense of d~j~ vu is equally striking. In stead o f resolving t he strug-

gle betw een com pet ing theore t ica l t radit ions, the end of the Co ld W ar has

m erely launc hed a ne w series of debates . Ironically, ev en as m any societies

em brace s imilar ideals of democracy, free markets, an d hu m an rights, th e

scholars wh o study these developm ents are mo re divided th an ever.

R e a / /s m R e d u x

A l t h o u g h t h e e n d o f th e C o l d W a r l e d a f ew w r it er s t o d e c l ar e th a t

rea li sm was des t ined for the academ ic sc rapheap , rumors of i ts dem ise

hav e be en la rge ly exaggera ted .

A rece nt contr ibu t ion of rea lis t theory is i ts a t tent io n to the p roblem

of relat ive and absolute gains. Re spo ndin g to the inst itutionalis ts ' c laim

tha t in ternat ion al ins t i tu t ions would enable s ta tes to forego short - term

advan tages for the sake of greater long -term gains, realists such as Joseph

Grieco and S tephen Krasner po in t ou t tha t anarchy forces s ta tes to

worry abou t both th e absolute gains f rom coopera t ion and th e w ay tha t

gains are distributed am on g participants. T h e logic is straightforward: If

one s tate reaps larger gains than i ts partners , i t wil l gradually become

stronger , a nd i ts par tners w i ll eventual ly beco m e m ore v ulnerable .

Realists ha ve also be en qu ick to explore a variety of ne w issues. Barry

Posen offers a rea l is t explanat ion for e thnic confl ic t , not ing that the

breakup o f m ul t ie thn ic states cou ld place riva l e th nic groups in an anar-

ch ic se tt ing, thereb y t riggering intense fears an d tem pt ing e ac h group to

use force to improv e i ts re la t ive pos i tion. Th is p roblem w ould be par-

t icularly severe w he n e ach group 's te rr i tory conta ine d enclaves inhab i t -

ed by the i r e th n ic r iva l s - -as in the former Yugos lavia because each

s ide wo uld be tem pted to c leanse (preempt ive ly) these a l i en minor i -

t ie s and ex pand to incorpora te any o the rs from the i r e th n ic g roup tha t

lay outside their borders . Realis ts have also cautioned that N^TO,

absent a c lear enemy, would l ike ly face increas ing s t ra ins and that

exp and ing i ts presen ce eas tward w ould jeopardize re la t ions w i th Russia.

F inal ly , scholars such as Michael Mastanduno have argued that U.S .

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W a it in g fo r M r X

T he po s t -C o ld W ar wor ld s ti ll awa i ts it s X a r ti c le . A l th oug h man y

hav e t r i ed , no on e has m anaged to p en the so r t o f com pel l ing analysis

t h a t G e o r g e K e n n a n p r o v i d e d f o r a n e a r li e r e r a, w h e n h e a r ti c u la t e d t h e

theory o f con ta inm en t . In s tead o f a s ingle new v i sion , the m os t impor -

t an t de ve lo pm en t in pos t -C o ld W ar wr it ings on wor ld a ff ai rs is the con -

t inu ing c lash be tw een those wh o b e l i eve wor ld po li ti c s has be en (o r is

b e i n g ) f u n d a m e n t a l l y tr a n sf o r m e d a n d t h o s e w h o b e l ie v e t h a t t h e f u tu r e

will look a lo t l ike the past.

Scho la r s wh o see the end o f the Co ld W ar as a wa te r shed fa l l in to

two dis t inc t groups. M an y exper ts st il l see the s ta te as the m ain acto r

bu t be l i eve tha t the agenda o f st a te s i s sh i ft ing f rom m i l it a ry com pet i -

t ion to e con om ic com pet i t ivenes s , dom es t i c we lf are , and e nv i ro nm en-

ta l p ro tec t ion . Thus , P res iden t B i l l C l in ton has embraced the v iew

tha t en l igh ten ed s e l f- in te res t [ and] sha red v a l u es . . , w i ll com pe l us to

coop era te in m ore cons t ruc t ive ways . Som e wr it e rs a t tr ibu te th is

chan ge to the sp read o f democracy , o the r s to the nuc lea r s t a lemate ,

and s ti ll o the r s to changes in in te rna t iona l no rms .

A n eve n mo re rad ica l pe r spec t ive ques tions wh e the r the s t a te i s

s ti ll t he m os t im por tan t in te rna t iona l ac to r. J es sica M athews be l ieves

th at the absolu tes of the W es tph al ian sys tem [of ] ter r i tor ia l ly f ixed

s t a t e s . . , a r e a l l d is so lv ing , and Joh n Rugg ie a rgues tha t we do no t

ev en h ave a vocabu la ry tha t c an adequa te ly desc ribe the new fo rces

tha t (he be l i eves ) a r e t r ans fo rming con tempora ry wor ld po l i t i c s .

A l thou gh the re is s ti ll n o consensus on the causes o f th i s t r end , the

view that s ta tes are of decreas ing re levance is surpr is ingly common

am on g academ ics , journal is ts , an d po l icy wonks .

P rom inen t r eali sts such as Chr i s topher Layne and K en ne th W al tz

con t inue to g ive the s t a te p r ide o f p lace and p red ic t a r e tu rn to f ami li a r

pa t t e rns o f g rea t powe r comp et i t ion . S imi la rly , R ober t K eoha ne and

ot he r ins t itu t ionalis ts also emphas ize the cen tra l ro le of the s ta te and

argue tha t in s ti tu tions such as the E uropean U nio n and NATO are

imp or tan t p rec is e ly because they p rov ide con t inu i ty in the mids t o f d ra-

ma t ic po l it ica l sh ift s. Th ese au thor s a ll r ega rd the end o f the Co ld W ar

as a far - reaching sh i f t in th e g lobal balanc e of pow er but do no t see i t as

a qu al i ta t ive t ransform at ion in the basic nature of wor ld poli tics .

W h o is r ig h t ? T o o s o o n t o t e l l, b u t t h e d e b a t e b e a r s w a t c h i n g

i n t h e y e a rs t o c o m e .

- - S . W .

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Wak

foreign policy is gen erally con sisten t w ith realis t pr inciples, insofar as i ts

ac t ions are st il l des igned to preserve U .S . pred om inan ce and to shap e a

postwar order tha t advan ces A m er ic an interes ts .

T h e mo s t in te res ting conceptua l deve lop m ent w i th in the r ea l is t par-

ad igm has been the emerg ing sp li t be tw een the de fens ive and offen-

sive strands of th ou gh t. De fensiv e realists suc h as W altz, V an Ever-a,

and Jack Sn yde r assumed th at s ta tes h ad l i tt le in t r ins ic interes t in m ili -

tary conques t and argued that the cos ts of expansion genera l ly out-

we igh ed the benefi ts . Accord ing ly , they m ain ta ined tha t g rea t pow er

wars occu rred largely becau se dom estic groups fostered exaggerated per-

cept ions o f threat and an excess ive fa i th in th e eff icacy of mil i tary force .

Th is view is no w being chal len ged a long severa l fronts . F ir st , as Ran -

dal l Sch w el ler notes , th e n eoreal is t assump tion tha t s tates m erely seek

to survive s tacked the d eck in favor of the s tatus quo because i t pre-

c lude d the threa t of predatory revisionis t s ta tes nat ion s such as A do lf

Hi t le r 's G erm any or N apo leon Bonaparte 's F rance tha t va lue w ha t

they co ve t fa r m ore tha n w ha t they possess and a re w i l l ing to r isk anni -

h i la t ion to ach ieve the i r a ims . Second , Pe te r L iberman, in h i s book

Does C onquest Pay? uses a num ber o f h i s to r ica l cases - - such as the N az i

oc c upa t ion o f W e s t e r n E ur ope a nd S ov ie t he ge m ony ove r E a s t e r n

Eu rop e- - to show tha t the benefi ts o f conques t o f ten exceed the cos ts ,

the reby cas ting dou bt o n the c la im tha t mi l i ta ry expans ion i s no longer

cos t-ef fec t ive . Third, of fens ive rea l is ts such as Er ic Labs , John

Mearsheimer , and Fareed Zakar ia argue that anarchy encourages a l l

s ta tes to t ry to max imize their re la t ive s t rength s imply because no s ta te

can ever be sure w he n a t ru ly r ev ision is t pow er might emerge .

T he se differences he lp exp lain w hy realis ts disagree o ver issues such

as the future of Europe. For defensive realists su ch as Va n Evem , war is

rarely profitable an d usually results f rom m ili tar ism, hype rnatio nalism ,

or som e o the r dis tor t ing dom est ic fac tor. Because Va n E vera bel ieves

such forces are largely absent in p os t-C old W ar Europe, he conc ludes

tha t the region is pr imed for peace . By contras t , M earsheim er and

oth er offensive realists believ e th at an arc hy forces great powers to c om -

pete i r respect ive of the ir in terna l characteris tics an d tha t secur ity com -

pe t i t ion wil l re turn to Eu rope as soon as the U .S . pacif ier is w i thdraw n.

N e w L / re f o r L /he r d / s in

T he de fea t o f com m unism sparked a rou nd o f se lf -congra tu la tion in th e

W est , bes t exem plif ied by Francis Fukuyama's infamou s c la im th at

SPRING 99 8 37


9/17


COMPETING

P R DIGMS

S s v a f -J ~ e r l~ l g d l a t u s C n lI c g rn o r p o w e r S 1 n t a o h a v i e c h a p e d

c o m p e t e o ~ f u r o v e r rid d e n y e c o n o m ic , b y 6 1 ~ b ~ e f s ,

p o w e r o r s e c u ~ p a l i t i c d m m i d e r n t i o n s c d l e c l iv e n o r m s ,

( d e s i /e u r ~ ' e c p w J l y , a n d s ~ j n l i d m ~ d l i e c

c o m m i lm o n t o

l i b e r a l v a l u e s )

S t a t e s S 1 o t u s I n d i v i d u a l s

( e c p e c i a i y~ J i t u s )

E c o n o m i c n d V a r i e s i n t e r n a t i o n a l I d e a s a n d

e s p e ( ' m l l ym i li t a r y in s t i tu l i e n s ,e c o n o m i c d i s c o u r s e

p o w e r a x d m n g e , p r o m n t i o n

o f d e m o c r a cy )

H a n s M a r g e n t h o n , M i c h a e l D o y l e , A l e x a n d e rW e n c h ,

K e n n e t h W a lt z R o b e d K e o h o n a J o h n R O w e

M a in T h e c ; i ~ ~

P r ~ o s i t l o n

M a b U e i ts o f A n a l y s b

M a b I n s tr u m n t s

M o d e r n T h e o r i s ts

R e p r e s e n t a t i v e

M o d e m W o r k s

W a l l~ T /m o r y f

~ e r n a t / o n a / P o / / # c E

M a a r s b e im e r , B a c k o i

t h e F u t u re : m t a b i l ~ ly

i n E u r o p e f te r

t h e C o l d W a r

( l ~ r n a t / a n a / S e a ~ r / r y ,

1 9 9 0 )

K e o h a o n ,

A f t e r H q ~ n a n y

F u k u y a m a , t h e [ n d

o f

f l i s t ~ ? ( # m ' / o o n /

/ n t e a ~ , 1 9 8 9 )

W e n d l', A o n r d ~ I s

W h m S t a te s M a k e o f H

( I . ~ r ~ / o n a /

O r S a n ~ , a ~ 1 9 9 2 ) ;

R o s l o ~ &

K r m e c ln d , U n d e r -

s ta n d in g O m o g m n

I n t u m u ~ a l P o l it ic s

[ n t u r n a l i o n d

1 9 9 4 )

P o s t - C o l d W a r R e s u rg e n ce f In c re a s e d o ~ e r a f i m A g o n s lic b e c a m e i

P r e d l d i m o v e r t g r e a t p o w e r a s i b ~ a l v a lu e s , r e e c a n n o tp r n d i a I b e

c o m p e l il io n m a r k e t s , a n d i n t e m a - c o n t e n t o F d e a s

f io n a l n ~ n t i e n s ~ o n l

M a b L k n i t a t i o n D a e sn o t a c c o u n t o r T e n d s o

i g n o r t h o

B e l i e r a t d e s c r i b in g h e

i n t e m m i e n a l h a n g e r o l e o f p o w e r p a s t l m n a n t i c ip a l in g

t h e f u t u re

3 8 F O R E I G N P O L I C Y


10/17

alt

h u m a n k i n d h a d n o w r e a c h e d t h e e n d o f h is to ry . H i s t o r y h a s p a i d l it -

t le a t t e n t i o n t o t h i s b o as t, b u t t h e t r i u m p h o f t h e W e s t d i d g i ve a

n o t a b l e b o o s t t o a l l t h r e e s w a n d s o f li b e ra l th o u g h t .

B y f ar t h e m o s t i n t e re s t in g a n d i m p o r t a n t d e v e l o p m e n t h a s b e e n t h e

l iv e ly d e b a te o n t h e d e m o c r a t ic p e a c e. A l t h o u g h t h e m o s t r e c e n t

p h a s e o f t h is d e b a t e h a d b e g u n e v e n b e f or e th e S o v i e t U n i o n c o ll ap s e d,

i t b e c a m e m o r e i n f l u e n t ia l a s t h e n u m b e r o f d e m o c r a c ie s b e g a n t o

i n c re a s e a n d a s e v i d e n c e o f th i s r e l a ti o n s h i p b e g a n t o a c c u m u l a t e .

D e m o c r a t i c p e a c e t h e o r y i s a r e f i n e m e n t o f t h e e a r l i e r c l a i m t h a t

d e m o c r a c i e s w e r e i n h e r e n t l y m o r e p e a c e f u l t h a n a u t o c r a t i c s ta te s . I t r es ts

o n t h e b e l i e f t h a t a l t h o u g h d e m o c r a c i e s s e e m t o f i g h t w a rs as o f t e n a s

o th e r s t a t e s, t h e y r a re ly , f f e v e r , f i g h t o n e a n o th e r . S c h o l a r s s u c h a s

M i c h a e l D o y l e , J a m e s L e e R a y , a n d B r u c e R u s s et r h a v e o f fe r ed a n u m b e r

o f e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h i s te n d e n c y , t h e m o s t p o p u l a r b e i n g t h a t d e m o c r a -

c i es e m b r a c e n o r m s o f c o m p r o m i s e t h a t b a r t h e u s e o f f o rc e a g a in s t

g r o u p s e sp o u s in g sim i l a r p r i n c ip l e s. I t is h a r d t o t h i n k o f a m o r e i n f l u e n -

t ia l, r e c e n t a c a d e m i c d e b a t e , i n so f ar a s t h e b e l i e f t h a t d e m o c r a c i e s d o n ' t

f ig h t e a c h o t h e r h a s b e e n a n i m p o r t a n t j u st if ic a ti o n f or t h e C l i n t o n

a d m in i s t r a ti o n ' s e ff or ts t o e n l a r g e t h e s p h e r e o f d e m o c r a t i c r u l e .

I t is t h e r e f o r e i r o n i c t h a t f a i th in t h e d e m o c r a t i c p e a c e b e c a m e t h e

b as is f o r U . S . p o l i c y j u s t a s a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h w a s b e g in n in g t o i d e n t i f y

s e v e r a l q u a l i f i e r s t o t h i s t h e o r y . F i r s t , S n y d e r a n d Ed w a r d M a n s f i e ld

p o i n t e d o u t t h a t s ta te s m a y b e m o r e p r o n e t o w a r w h e n t h e y a re i n t h e

m i d s t o f a d e m o c r a t i c t r a n s it io n , w h i c h i m p l i e s t h a t e ffo rts t o e x p o r t

d e m o c r a c y m i g h t a c t u a ll y m a k e t h i n g s w o r s e . S e c o n d , c r i ti c s s u c h a s

J o a n n e G o w a a n d D a v i d S p i ro h a v e a r g u e d t h a t t h e a p p a r e n t a b s e n c e o f

w a r b e t w e e n d e m o c r a c i e s is d u e t o t h e w a y t h a t d e m o c r a c y h a s b e e n

d e f i n e d a n d t o t h e r e l a t iv e d e a r t h o f d e m o c r a t i c s ta t es ( e sp e c ia l ly b e f o r e

1 9 45 ). I n a d d i t io n , C h r i s to p h e r L a y n e h a s p o i n t e d o u t t h a t w h e n

d e m o c r a c i e s h a v e c o m e c lo s e to w a r i n t h e p a s t t h e i r d e c i s io n t o r e m a i n

a t p e a c e u k i m a t e l y h a d l it t le d o w i t h t h e i r s h a r e d d e m o c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r.

T h i r d , c l e a r c u t e v i d e n c e t h a t d e m o c r a c i e s d o n o t f i g ht e a c h o t h e r is c o n -

f i n e d t o t h e p o s t - 1 9 45 e r a, a n d , as G o w a h a s e m p h a s i z e d , t h e a b s e n c e o f

c o n f l ic t i n th i s p e ri o d m a y b e d u e m o r e t o t h e i r c o m m o n i n te r e st i n c o n -

m i n i n g t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t h a n t o s h a r e d d e m o c r a t i c p r in c ip l es .

L i b e ra l i n st it u ti o n a li s ts l ik e w i se h a v e c o n t i n u e d t o a d a p t t h e i r o w n

t h e o ri e s. O n t h e o n e h a n d , t h e c o r e c la i m s o f i n s ti tu t i o n a li s t th e o r y h a v e

b e c o m e m o r e m o d e s t o v e r t i m e . I n s t i t u t i o n s a r e n o w s a i d t o f a c i l i t a t e

c o o p e r a t i o n w h e n i t is i n e a c h s ta te 's i n t e r e s t t o d o s o, b u t i t is w id e ly

SPRING 99 8 39


11/17


a g r ee d t h a t t h e y c a n n o t f o rc e s ta te s t o b e h a v e i n w a y s t h a t a r e c o n t ra r y

to the s ta te s ' own se l f i sh in te re s t s . [Fo r fu r the r d i scuss ion , p lease see

Ro b e r t K e o h a n e ' s a r t i c l e . ] O n th e o th e r h a n d , i n s t i t u t i o n a l i s t s s u c h a s

J o h n D u f fi el d a n d R o b e r t M c C a l l a h a v e e x t e n d e d t h e t h e o r y i n to n e w

subs tan t ive a reas, m os t no tab ly the s tudy o f NAaXg. For th ese scho la r s ,

N ATO'S h ig h ly i n s t it u t io n a l i z e d c h a r a c t e r h e lp s e x p l a in w h y i t h a s b e e n

ab le to su rv ive an d adap t , desp i te the d i sapp ea ran ce o f it s m a i n adve rsary .

T h e e c o n o m ic s t r a n d o f l i b e ra l t h e o r y is s t il l i n f lu e n t i a l a s w e l l . I n p a r -

t ic u l a r, a n u m b e r o f s c h o l a rs h a v e r e c e n t l y s u g g e s te d t h a t t h e g lo b al iz a-

t i o n o f w o r l d m a r k e t s, t h e r is e o f t r a n s n a t i o n a l n e t w o r k s a n d

n o n g o v e r n m e n t a l o r ga n iz a ti o n s, a n d t h e r a p i d s pr e ad o f g l o b al c o m m u -

n i c a t i o n s t e c h n o l o g y a r e u n d e r m i n i n g t h e p o w e r o f s ta t es a n d s h i ft in g

a t t e n t i o n a w a y f r o m m i li t a ry s e cu r it y to w a r d e c o n o m i c s a n d s o c ia l w e l -

f a r e . Th e d e t a i l s a r e n o v e l b u t t h e b a s i c l o g i c i s f a m i l i a r : A s s o c i e t i e s

a r o u n d t h e g l ob e b e c o m e e n m e s h e d i n a w e b o f e c o n o m i c a n d s o c ia l

c o n n e c t i o n s , t h e c o s ts o f d i s r u p t i n g t h e s e t ie s w i l l e f f e c ti v e ly p r e c lu d e

u n i l a t e r a l s t a te a c t i o n s , e s p e c i a l ly t h e u s e o f fo r c e .

T h i s p e r s p e c t i v e i m p l i e s t h a t w a r w i l l r e m a i n a r e m o t e p o s s i b i l i t y

a m o n g t h e a d v a n c e d i n d u s t ri a l d e m o c r a c i e s . It a ls o su gg ests t h a t b r in g -

i n g C h i n a a n d R u s s i a i n t o t h e r e l e n t l e s s e m b r a c e o f w o r l d c a p i t a li s m i s

t h e b e s t w a y t o p r o m o t e b o t h p r o s p e ri ty a n d p e a c e , p a r t ic u l a r l y if t h i s

p r o c e s s c r e a t e s a s t r o n g m id d l e c la s s i n t h e s e s t a t e s a n d r e in f o r c e s p r es -

s u re s t o d e m o c r a t iz e . G e t t h e s e s o c i et ie s h o o k e d o n p r o s p e ri ty a n d c o m -

p e t i t i o n w i ll b e c o n f i n e d t o t h e e c o n o m i c re a lm .

T h i s v i e w h a s b e e n c h a l l e n g e d b y sc h o la r s w h o a r g ue t h a t t h e a c tu -

a l s c o p e o f g l o b a li z a ti o n is m o d e s t a n d t h a t t h e s e v a r io u s t r a n s a c ti o n s

s ti ll ta k e p l a c e i n e n v i r o n m e n t s t h a t a r e sh a p e d a n d r e g u l a t e d b y s ta te s .

N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e b e l i e f t h a t e c o n o m i c fo r c es a re s u p e r se d i n g t r a d i ti o n -

a l g r e a t p o w e r p o l i t i c s e n j o y s w i d e s p r e a d a c c e p t a n c e a m o n g s c h o l a r s ,

p u n d i t s , a n d p o l i c y m a k e r s , a n d t h e r o l e o f t h e s t a te is l ik e l y t o b e a n

i m p o r t a n t t o p i c f o r f u t u re a c a d e m i c i nq u ir y .

o n s t ru c t ia ~ s t T h eo r i e s

W h e r e a s r e a l is m a n d l i b e r a li s m t e n d t o f o c us o n m a t e r i a l f a c to r s s u c h a s

p o w e r o r t ra d e , c o n s t r u c t i v i s t a p p r o a c h e s e m p h a s i ze t h e i m p a c t o f id e a s.

I n s t e a d o f t a k i n g t h e s t a te f o r g r a n t e d a n d a s s u m i n g t h a t i t s i m p l y s e ek s

to s u r v iv e , c o n s t r u c t i v i s t s r e g a r d t h e i n t e r e s ts a n d i d e n t i t i e s o f s t a te s a s

a h i g h l y m a l l e a b l e p r o d u c t o f s p e c i f i c h i s t o r i c a l p r o c e s s e s . T h e y p a y

c lo s e a t t e n t i o n t o t h e p r e v a i l i n g d i s c o u r s e ( s ) i n s o c i e ty b e c a u s e d i s -

4 FOREIGN

P O L I Y


12/17

Wdt

cou rse reflects an d shapes beliefs an d interests, an d establishes ac ce pte d

norm s o f behavior . Con sequen t ly , cons t ruct ivism is especia lly a t ten t ive

to th e sources of change , and this approa ch has largely replaced marx-

ism as the pre em ine nt radica l perspect ive on intern at ion al affai rs .

T h e e nd o f t he C o ld W a r p la ye d a n im po r t a n t ro l e i n le g i tim a t ing

cons t ruc t iv i s t theor ies because rea li sm an d l ibe ra li sm both fa il ed to

a n t i c ipa te t h is e ve n t a nd ha d s om e t roub le e xp l a in ing it . Cons t ruc -

t ivis ts had an e xp lana t ion: Specif ica lly, for m er pres id ent M ikh ai l

G orba c h e v r e vo lu ti on i z e d S ov i e t fo re ign po l ic y be c a us e he e m b ra c e d

ne w ideas such as co m m on secur ity .

M ore ove r, g ive n t ha t we l i ve i n a n e r a whe re o ld no rm s a re be ing

cha l leng ed, onc e c lea r bou nda ries are dissolving, and issues of ident i -

ty are be co m ing m ore sa l ient , i t is hard ly surprising th at scholars ha ve

been d /awn to approaches tha t p lace these i s sues f ron t and cen te r .

From a cons truct ivis t perspect ive , in fac t , the centra l i ssue in the

po s t -C old W ar wo r ld is ho w d i f fe ren t g roups c onc e ive the i r iden t i t ie s

and in te res t s . Al though power i s no t i r re levant , cons t ruc t iv i sm

emphas izes ho w ideas and iden t i ti e s a re c rea ted , ho w the y evolve , and

ho w th ey shape th e w ay s ta tes unders tan d an d respond to the i r s itua-

t ion . The re fore , i t ma t te rs w he the r Europeans de f ine themse lves pri-

m a r il y in n a t i o n a l o r c o n t i n e n t a l t er m s; w h e t h e r G e r m a n y a n d J a p a n

redef ine the i r pas ts in ways tha t enc ourage the i r ad opt ing m ore ac t ive

in t e rna t i ona l role s; a nd w he th e r t he U n i t e d S t a te s e m bra c e s o r r e je c t s

i ts ide nt i ty as global po l icem an .

Co ns t ruc t iv i s t theor ies a re qu i te d ive rse and do no t o f fe r a un i f ied

se t o f p red ic t ions o n any o f these is sues . A t a pure ly conce ptua l l eve l ,

A le xa nd e r W e n d t ha s a rgue d t ha t t he r ea li st c on c e p t i on o f ana rc hy

does no t adequa te ly expla in w hy conf l i c t occurs be tw een s ta tes. T h e

rea l is sue is ho w anarch y is un de rs to od - - in W endt ' s words, A narc hy

is w ha t s ta tes make o f i t. A no th er s t rand of cons truc t iv i s t theory has

focused on the future of the terr i tor ia l s ta te , sugges t ing that t ransna-

t i ona l c om m unic a t i on a nd s ha re d c iv i c value s a re un de rm in ing t ra d i-

t iona l na t io na l loyal t ies and creat ing radica l ly ne w forms o f pol i t ica l

associa t ion. Other cons t ruct ivis ts focus on the role of norms, arguing

tha t i n t e rna t iona l l a w a nd o the r n o rm a t ive p r inc ip l es ha ve e rode d e a r-

l ier not ions of sovere ignty and a l tered the legi t imate purposes for

w h i c h s ta te p o w e r m a y b e e m p lo y ed . T h e c o m m o n t h e m e i n e a c h o f

these s t rands is th e capaci ty of discourse to shape ho w p ol i t ica l ac tors

def ine them selves and thei r in teres ts , an d thu s mo dify thei r behavior .

Sr aINO 19 98 41


13/17


omestic Politics

Re c ons /de r e d

As in th e C old W ar, scholars con t inu e to explore the imp act of domes-

tic poli t ics on the behavior of s tates . Domestic poli t ics are obviously

centra l to the debate on the democrat ic peace , and scholars such as

Snyder , Jeffrey F rieden , and H e le n M i lner have exam ined ho w domes-

t ic in teres t groups can d is tor t th e fo rmat ion of s ta te preferences and lead

to subopt imal in te rna t iona l behavior . George Downs , David Rocke ,

an d o thers hav e a lso explored how dom est ic ins t i tu t ions ca n help s ta tes

dea l w i th the pe rennia l p rob lem of uncer ta in ty , whi le s tudents o f psy-

chology have applied prospec t theory and o the r new too ls to expla in

w hy dec ision makers fail to a ct in a ra tion al fashion. [For fur the r dis-

cuss ion ab out fore ign pol icy decis ion m aking, please see the ar t ic le by

M a rga re t H e r m a nn a nd J oe H a ga n.]

The pas t decade has a lso witnessed an explos ion of in teres t in the

co nce pt of cul ture , a deve lop m ent tha t over laps w ith the cons truct ivis t

emphasis on the imp or tance of ideas and n orms. Thus , Th om as Berger

and Peter Katzens te in hav e used cul tura l variables to ex pla in wh y Ge r-

m any and Jap an hav e thus far eschew ed m ore sel f- re liant mil i tary poli-

cies; Elizabeth Kier has offered a c ultural in terp retatio n o f Brit ish and

Frenc h mi l i ta ry doc t r ines in th e in terwar pe riod ; an d la in John s ton has

traced con t inui t ies in C hine se fore ign pol icy to a deep ly rooted form of

cul tura l rea lism. Sam uel H un t ington 's di re warnings abou t an imm i-

n e n t clash of civilizations are sym ptom atic of this tren d as we ll , inso-

far as his argument rests on the claim that broad cultural aff init ies are

now supplant ing nat ional loyal t ies . Though these and other works

def ine cul ture in widely varying ways and have yet to provide a ful l

exp lanat io n o f ho w i t works or ho w end ur ing i ts effec ts mig ht be , cul-

tura l perspectives ha ve b een very m uc h in vogue dur ing the past f ive

years. This t rend is par t ly a ref lec t ion of the broader interes t in cul tura l

is sues in th e academic wor ld ( and w i th in the publ ic deba te as we l l) and

partly a response to th e upsurge in eth nic , nation alis t , and c ultural con -

f licts s ince the dem ise of the S ovie t U nio n.

T O M O R R O W ' S C O N C E P T U A L T O O L B O X

W hi le these debates reflect th e diversity of contem porary scholarship on

intern ation al affairs, the re are also obvious signs of conv ergen ce. M ost real-

ists recognize that nationalism, militarism, ethnicity, and other domestic

factors are important; liberals acknowledge th at pow er is cen tral to inter-

4 FOREIGN POLICY


14/17

Wak

national behavior; and some constructivis ts admit that ideas will have

greater im pact w h en backe d by powerful states a nd reinforced by en dur ing

m aterial forces. T h e boundaries of eac h paradigm are som ew hat perm e-

able, an d the re is amp le opp ortunity for intel lectual arbitrage.

W hi c h o f t he s e b roa d pe rs pec ti ves s heds t he m os t l i gh t on c on t e m -

pora ry in te rna t iona l a ffa irs , and w hic h should po l icymakers keep mo s t

f i rm ly i n m ind whe n c ha r t i ng ou r c ou r s e i n to t he ne x t c e n tu ry?

Al though m a ny a c a de m ic s ( a nd m ore t ha n a f e w po l i c ym a ke r s ) a r e

loa the to adm i t i t, r ea li sm remains th e m os t com pel l ing genera l f rame-

wo rk for und ers tanding in te rna t iona l re la t ions . S ta tes co n t in ue to pay

c lose a t t en t io n to th e ba lance of pow er and to worry about th e possi-

b i l ity o f ma jor conf li c t. Am on g o the r th ings, th i s endu r ing preoccupa-

t i on w i th powe r a n d s e cu r it y e xp la in s w hy m a ny As i a ns a n d E uropea ns

a re now e a ge r t o p re s e rve - - a nd pos s ib ly e xpa nd- - t he U . S . m i l i t a ry

presence in the i r reg ions . As Cz ech pres iden t V~ic lav H ave l has

wa rned , i f NATO fa ils to expan d , we m ight be he ad in g for a ne w g lob-

a l c a t a s t ro p h e . . . [wh ic h] c ou ld c os t u s a ll m uc h m ore tha n t he two

wo r ld wars . Th ese a re no t th e words of a ma n w ho be l ieves tha t g rea t

pow er r iva lry has be en ban ished forever .

As for the U ni t ed Sta tes, the pas t decade has show n ho w m uc h i t likes

be ing num ber one and how de te rmined i t is to rema in in a p redom inant

posit ion. T h e U ni te d States has take n adv antage of i ts curren t superiori-

ty to impose its preferences w he rev er possible, ev en at t h e risk of irritat-

ing m an y o f i ts long-standing allies . I t has forced a series of one-sided arms

control agreements on Russia, dom inated th e problemat ic peace effor t in

Bosnia, take n steps to exp and NATO into Russia 's backyard, an d b eco m e

increas ingly concemed about the r is ing power of China . I t has ca l led

repeatedly for greater rel iance on multi lateralism and a larger role for

international inst i tut ions, but has treated agencies such as the United

Nat ions and the W or ld Trade Organiza t ion w i th d isda in whe neve r the i r

actions did no t co nform to U .S. interests . I t refused to jo in the rest of the

world in o ut lawing the produ ct ion of landm ines and w as pol i te ly unco -

opera t ive a t th e K yoto env ironm enta l summit . A l tho ug h U.S. leaders are

adept a t c loaking thei r ac tions in the lofty rhetor ic of w orld order, nak ed

self- interest l ies beh ind m ost of them . Thus , the en d o f the C old W ar did

n ot bring th e en d o f pow er poli tics , an d realism is l ikely to rem ain the s in-

gle m ost useful instrum ent in o ur intel lectual toolbox.

Ye t rea l ism does no t exp la in e very th ing , and a wise l eader w ould

a l so keep ins igh ts f rom the r iva l pa rad igms in m ind . L ibera l theor ies

S P R I N G 9 9 8 43


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ident i fy the ins t ruments tha t s ta tes can use to achieve shared inter-

ests , h igh l igh t the pow erfu l econo m ic forces w i th w hich s ta tes and

soc ie t ie s mu s t now con tend , and he lp us unders tand w hy s ta tes may

differ in their basic preferences. Paradoxical ly, because U.S. protec-

t io n reduces the d ang er of regional r iva lr ies and re inforces the l iber-

a l peac e tha t em erge d af ter 1945, these fac tors may beco m e re la t ive ly

more impor tan t , a s long as the Uni ted S ta tes cont inues to provide

secur i ty and s tabil ity in m any par ts of the world.

M eanw hi le , cons t ruct ivist theor ies are bes t sui ted to the analys is of

how ident it ie s and in te res ts can chang e over t ime , the reby produc ing

subtle shifts in the behavior of states and occasionally triggering far-

reaching but unexpected shi f t s in internat ional affa i rs . I t mat ters i f

pol i t ica l iden t i ty in Europe co nt inu es to shi f t f rom the nat ion -s ta te to

m ore loca l regions o r to a broad er sense of European identi ty, just as i t

m atters i f na t ion alism is gradually supplan ted by th e sort of civi liza-

t ion al affinit ies emp hasized by H un ting ton . Realism has l i t t le to say

abo ut th ese prospects , an d policymakers co uld be bl ind-sid ed by

ch an ge if th ey igno re these possibilit ies entirely.

In short, eac h of these co m pe ting perspectives captures im po rtant

aspects of world poli t ics . Our understanding would be impoverished

were our th ink ing conf ined to on ly one of them . Th e comp lea t d ip lo-

m at of the future sho uld rem ain cognizant of rea li sm's emph as is on the

inescapable role of power, keep liberalism's awareness of dom estic forces

in m ind , an d occasionally reflect o n construct ivism's vis ion of chan ge.

W A N T T O K N O W M O R E ?

For a fair-m ind ed survey of th e realist , l iberal, an d marxist paradigms,

see Mic hae l Doyle 's W a y s o f W a r a n d P e a c e (New York, NY: N orton ,

1997). A guide to som e rece nt develo pm ents in internat ion al pol i tica l

thou ght i s Doyle & G. J oh n Ikenberry, eds ., N ew Th /nkin g

i n I n t e r .

na t iona l Re la t ions

Th eo ry (Boulder, C O : W estview, 1997).

Those in teres ted in rea lism should examine Th e Per / /s o f A narc hy :

Contem porary Re a l i sm and In t erna t iona l Secur i t y Cambr idge, M A :

MIT Press , 1995) by M icha el Brown, Se an Lynn-Jones, & Ste ve n M iller ,

e ds.; O f f e ns i ve Re a l is m a nd W hy S ta te s Expa nd The i r Wa r A i ms

Secu rity Studies, Sum m er 1997) by Eric Labs ; and D ue l in g Rea l i sms

International Org anization,Su m m er 1997) by S tep he n Brooks. For a lter-

FOR E IGN Po I ICY


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na t ive r ea l i s t a s ses sm ent s o f con tem pora ry wor ld po l i t i c s , s ee John

M e a r sh e im e r 's B a c k t o t h e F u t u r e : I n s t a b i l i ty i n E u r o p e a f t e r t h e

C o l d W a r

(International

Secur/ ty , Su m m er 1990) a nd R ob er t Jerv is '

T h e F u t u r e o f W o r l d P o l it ic s : W i ll I t R e s e m b l e t h e P a s t ? (Interna-

t /ona /Secur /ty, W in t e r 1991 -92) . A r ea l i st ex p lan a t ion o f e th n ic con -

f li c t is B a rry P o se n's T h e S e c u r i t y D i l e m m a a n d E t h n i c C o n f l i c t

(Survival,

Spr ing 1993); an u p- to -da te su rvey o f o f f ense .de fense theo ry

c a n b e f o u nd in T h e S e c u r i ty D i le m m a R e v i s i te d b y C h a r le s G l a se r

(World Poli t ics ,

O ctob e r 1997); a nd r ec en t U .S . fo re ign po l i cy is

e x p la i ne d i n M i c h a e l M a s ta n d u n o 's P r e s e r v i n g t h e U n i p o l a r

M o m e n t : R e a l i s t T h e o r i e s a n d U . S . G r a n d S t r a t e g y a f t e r t h e C o l d

W a r

(International

Secur/ ty, Sp ring 1997).

The l i be ra l approach to in t e rna t iona l a f f a i r s i s sum m ar ized in

A n d r e w M o ra vc sik 's T a k i n g P r e f e r e n c e s S e r i o u s l y : A L i b e r al T h e o -

r y o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s (International Organizat ion, A u t u m n

1 9 97 ). M a n y o f t h e l e a d in g c o n t ri b u t o r s t o t h e d e b a t e o n t h e d em o c ra -

t i c p e a c e c a n b e f o u n d i n B r o w n & L y n n - J o n e s , e d s . , D e b a t i n g t h e

D e m o c r a t i c P e a c e ( C a m b r id g e , M A : M IT P re ss , 1 9 96 ) a n d M i r ia m

E l m a n , e d., P a t h s t o P e a c e : I s D e m o c r a c y t h e A n s w e r ? ( C a m b r id g e ,

M A : M IT Pres s, 1997) . Th e con t r ibu t ions o f ins t i t u t iona l i s t t heory a nd

the deba te on r e l a t ive ga ins a re sum m arized in D av id B a ldwin , ed ., Neo-

r e a l i s m a n d N e o l i b e r a l i s m : T h e C o n t e m l x r r a~ D e b a t e ( N e w Y o rk ,

N Y : C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P re ss , 1 99 3 ). A n i m p o r t a n t c r i ti q u e o f t h e

i n s t it u t io n a l i s t l it e r at u r e is M e a r sh e i m e r 's T h e F a l s e P r o m i s e o f I n t e r -

n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t i o n s

(International

Secur/ ty , W in te r 1994--95) , bu t on e

shou ld a l so exa m ine th e r e sponses in the Su m m er 1995 i s sue . For appli -

ca t ions o f i ns t i t u t ion a l i s t t heo ry to NATO, see Jo hn Duf fie ld 's NA TO's

F u n c t i o n s a f t e r t h e C o l d W a r

(Poli t ical Science L~a rterly ,

W i n t e r

1 9 9 4 - 9 5 ) a n d R o b e r t M c C a U a 's N A T O 's P e r s i s t e n c e a f te r t h e C o l d

W a r ( In ternational Organization ,

S u m m e r 1 9 9 6 ).

A u t h o r s q u e s t i o n in g t h e r o le o f t h e s t a te i n c l u d e S u s a n S t r a n g e i n

T h e R e t r e a t of t h e

S ta te : T h e D / f ~ i o n o f P o w e r

i n t h e W o r ld E c o n .

om y (Cam br idge : Cam br idge U niv e r s i ty P res s, 1996); an d Je ss ica M ath -

ew s i n P o w e r S h i ft

(Foreign Affairs ,

January/February 1997) . T h e

e m e r g e n c e o f t h e s t a te i s a n a ly z e d b y H e n d r i k S p r u y t i n T h e S o v e r e ig n

S t a t e

an d I t s Com /m t /to rs (P r ince ton , N J : P r in ce to n U niv e r s i ty P res s,

1994), and i ts con t inue d im p or t ance is de fended in Qloba l/ z.a t/on in

Q u e s t i o n : T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m y a n d t h e P o s sib ilitie s o f C l ov er .

n a n c e ( C a m b r id g e : P o lity , 1 99 6 ) b y P a u l H i r s t a n d G r a h a m e T h o m p -

S P R I N G 9 9 8 45


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Internat ional f fairs

son, and

Governing the Global Economy: International Fina nce a nd

the State (Cambridge, MA : H arvard University P ress, 1994) by Ethan

Kapstein. A no the r defense (from a somew hat unlikely source) is T h e

World Economy: The Future of the Sta te The Economist, Septem-

ber 20, 1997 ), and a m or e academ ic discussion of these issues is Peter

Evans' T h e Eclipse of the State? Reflections on S tateness in an Er a

of Globalization W orld P olitics,October 1997).

Readers interested in constructivist approaches should begin with

Alexander Wendt's A narc hy Is W ha t S tates M ake of I t : Th e Socia l

Cons t ruc t ion of Power Pol i t i c s International O rganization, Spring

1992), while awaiting his So cial Th eory of International Polit ics

(Cambridge: Cambridge U nive rsity Press , forthcoming). A diverse

array of cultural an d constructivist approaches m ay also be found in

Peter Katzenstein, ed., Th e Cul ture o f Nat ional Secur i ty (New York,

NY: Columb ia Un iversity Press, 19 96 ) and Yosef Lapid & Friedrich

Kratochwil, eds. , T he R etu rn of Cul ture and Ident i ty in IR Theory

(Boulder: CO Lynne Rienner, 1996).

For links to relevant W eb sites, as w ell as a comprehen sive ind ex o f

related articles, access ww w.foreignpolicy.com.

h t tp : / / w w w . fo re ig n p o l ic y c o m

S e l e c t e d f u l l - t e x t a r t i c l e s f r o m t h e c u r r e n t i s s u e o f

F O R E I G N P O L I C Y A c c e s s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l d a t a a n d

r e s o u r c e s , O v e r 1 50 r e l a te d W e b s i t e l i n k s I n t e r a c t iv e

L e t te r s to t h e E d i t o r , D e b a t e s , 10 y e a r s o f a r c h iv a l

s u m m a r i e s a n d m o r e t o co m e . . .

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