1

The Global Context: Lessons

And Update From The US And

Abroad

October 30, 2012

Michael P. Walsh

International Consultant

Founding Chairman, International Council on Clean Transportation

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Million Metric Tons

MC

HDT

MDGT

MDT

LDDV

LDGV

Particulate Emissions By Road Vehicle Type

Base Case

Health effects of fine particles

(PM2.5) • Breathing fine particles (PM2.5) causes adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems

• Ambient (outdoor) PM2.5 exposures are linked to

– Premature death – Heart attacks – Strokes – Hospital and emergency room

visits – Acute and chronic bronchitis – Asthma-related effects – PM2.5 may also be associated

with infant mortality, low birth weight, and cancer

5

BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution

• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture

known as particulate matter (PM)

– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM

– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and

biomass, and is a major component of “soot”

– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most

strongly linked to adverse health effects

6

Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal

Candidates for Black Carbon Control

• Very high ratio of Black

Carbon to Organic

Carbon

• Ubiquitous

• Control Technology

Exists

• Substantial Health Co-

Benefits

Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles

U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine

Transient Cycle Emission Standards

3.5

0

2.0

0

0.4

0

1.5

0

0.6

5

0.2

6

3.0

3.0

1.0 1

.3

1.3

1.3

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010

(max

NOx)

U.S. 2010

(std.)

Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100

2005 2008 2013

g/kWh

Euro VI includes particle number limit

Forecast: Transportation Will Continue To Be A Major

Energy Consumer Going Forward Without Strong Action

Data from:

US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011.

[Report number DOE/EIA-0484(2011)]. – Reference Case

Available online: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/

• The transportation sector consumes the majority of liquid fuels

• The transportation sector is expected to grow in its consumption of liquid

fuels, as well as its share of total consumption

Improving Fuel Efficiency/GHG

Emissions

Slide 11

Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics

Reduce

rolling

resistance

Improve

drivetrain

efficiency

Reduce

auxiliary

loads

Improve

engine

efficiency

Reduce

vehicle

weight

Optimize

driver

behavior

US Technology Assessment

Slide 12

National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50%

improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe

National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for

Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus

(Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the

combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where

%FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.

Global Regulatory Landscape For Heavy Duty

Fuel Economy/GHG Controls

13

Country/R

egion

Regulation

Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Japan Fuel

economy

Regulation implemented starting MY

2015

United

States

GHG/Fuel

efficiency

Standard

proposal Final rule

Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (

mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)

Canada GHG/Fuel

efficiency

Standard

proposal Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014

China Fuel

consumption

Test

procedure

finalized

Industry

standard

proposal

Standard

proposal Final rule

Regulation implemented starting MY

2015

European

Union GHG Technical studies

Test

procedure

finalized

Mandatory efficiency reporting and

regulatory development

California

End-user

purchase

requirements

Requirements for tractors and

trailers (MY 2011+)

Additional reqs. for existing tractors

and trailers (<MY 2010)

Additional reqs. for

existing trailers and

reefers (<MY 2010)

Total Heavy-duty Vehicle CO2

Emissions

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt

CO

2e

Japan, Canada, EU Adopted

US 2014-2018 HDV

China Phase I HDV

China Phase II HDV

Mexico 2015-2018 HDV

Vehicle Potential (3.5% APR)

Activity Potential

Global HDV Emissions

Advanced

Technologies

Critical

in the Longer Term

US Fuel Cell Bus Projects

Source: http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_fc_bus_eval.html

BC Transit: Fuel Cell Bus Fleet Fleet of 20 hydrogen fuel cell buses in Whistler,

BC.

Application: Buses

Transit Agencies in CA Operating ZBuses

SF Muni: ~330 electric trolley buses in service

AC Transit: 3 fuel cell buses in service since March 2006, will lead Zero Emission Bay Area (ZEBA) demonstration of 12 next-generation fuel cell buses

Santa Clara VTA and Samtrans: 3 fuel cell buses operated between February 2005 and December 2009

Burbank Bus: recently put a plug-in fuel cell bus into service

SunLine Transit: H2 buses in service since 2005. 3 ZBuses operating

Foothill Transit: battery elec. Ecoliner

The HyRoad: AC Transit’s Hydrogen Fuel Cell Program

2nd largest transit agency in the Bay Area

940 km2 service area

69 million riders annually

Has been developing fuel cell demonstration program since 2000

3 buses phased into service starting in March 2006

On-site maintenance, 2 fueling stations online

Ongoing outside evaluation by National Renewable Energy Lab

Public education and community outreach

Educational curriculum for middle and high schools

FC buses designed to be Mobile Learning Centers

The HyRoad: Program Details

3 Van Hool buses, UTC fuel cell, ISE hybrid-electric drive system

Model year 2005

Fuel storage: 50 kg of hydrogen 400-480 km range

Cumulative mileage: more than 395,000 km

More than 623,000 passengers served

65% better fuel economy than diesels (8,200 lb handicap)

Chevron hydrogen fueling station opened in November 2005

Natural gas steam reformer generates 150 kg/day

Two new stations

Zero-emission Freight Technologies: Summary Of Ongoing Ce-delft/DLR Project

21

• Technologies with potential for zero on-road emissions

– Example projects:

• Hytruck (NL); Smith (UK); Gemco e-truck; Zerotruck; eHighway

(Siemens); Daimler; in-road charging, etc

– Concepts:

• Hybrid electric delivery trucks

• Battery electric technology for trucks

• On-road charging technologies

• Hydrogen fuel cell technology

– Key questions:

• Feasibility

• Cost

• Infrastructure

Questions?

22

Questions?