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7/31/2019 Wages Update Chartpack
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Wage Price
IndexChart pack updating the latestgranular information onAustralia wages.
2012 Q1
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National overview
Public sector wage inflation has moderated significantlybut consistent with a softer, but not collapsing, labourmarket private sector wage inflation has been morerobust. The annual pace for private wages has eased from4% in 2011Q1 to 3.6% in Q3, Q4 and now 2012Q1.
2
ages pressures are u ng n t e m n ng states, an nthe mining sector more broadly, but wage inflationcontinues to moderate in the south-east of the country.
Even including bonuses, wage inflation is still subdued.
Westpac expects the pace of wage inflation to easefurther to 3.2%yr by end 2012 as the unemployment ratecontinues to drift higher.
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Wage inflation continues to moderate
2
3
3
4
5%qtr%yr
WPI qtr (rhs)
WPI annual (lhs)
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
average annual rate since
series be an 1998
0
1
0
1
2
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
3
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Private vs. public sector wages
3
4
5
3
4
5%qtr%yr
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
Private sector
average since 1998
0
1
2
0
1
2
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
private qtr (rhs) public qtr (rhs) private yr (lhs) public yr (lhs)
4
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Including bonuses, no sign of a wage breakout
4
5
4
5
%yr%yr
Private sector WPI (ex bonuses)
Private sector WPI including bonuses, nsa
2
3
2
3
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
5
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1.9
2.1
2.3
1
2
3% chg, 2qtrs% chg, 2qtrs
Soft jobs momentum, wage outcomes moderate
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
.
-2
-1
0
Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-12
Trend full-time employ (lhs)
WPI (rhs) Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
6
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Labour market has eased significantly
10
20
30
40
50
3.5
4.0
4.5Net bal. %WPI %yr
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
labour hard to find
-50
-40
-30
-20
-100
2.0
2.5
3.0
Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11
Westpac-ACCI labour easy/hard - adv 3 qtrs (rhs)Private WPI %yr (lhs)
labour easyto find
7
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Industries with the fastest wages growth
Mining is the sector with the fastest wages growthnationally but in Qld and WA, construction wage
inflation is now running around 6%yr vs. mining 4%yr.
Wholesale wage inflation was running at 4%yr but haseased back as wages in that sector moderate in NSW.
8
Wage inflation in the professional & technical sectors areaccelerating in the mining states (6.1%yr Qld).
However, professional wage inflation is now under 4% inthe large south-eastern states.
Construction wages are accelerating in the mining statesbut are running at a slower than the state averages in thesouth-east.
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Wage inflation by industry & state
9
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Sectors with strongest wages inflation
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7%yr%yr
original data
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
construction
wholesale trade
professional & tech
miningSources: ABS, Westpac Economics
10
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Mining: Qld converging with WA
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
WA
Qld
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsnsa
11
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Construction: the mining states leading the way
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsnsa
12
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Wholesale: NSW has fallen back to the average
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic
NSW
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
Qld
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
13
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Professionals: south-east is dipping away
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
nsa
14
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Industries with modest wages growth
Retail wage inflation remains very modest despite signs ofan uptick in WA.
Health & social assistances wage inflation continues to bevery mild; again WA is the exception.
Public admin wa es startin to lift in WA ld wa es have
15
been more robust since late last year. Admin & services wages accelerating in WA while NSW is
surprisingly middling.
Surprising strength in NSW accom. & food services wages.
The almost 5% pace in NSW manufacturing wages (1.1pptabove national average & 1.3ppt above the state average)is very hard to explain on fundamentals.
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Sectors with softest wage inflation
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7%yr%yr
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsoriginal data
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
retailhealth care & social assistance
public admin & safetyadmin & support
16
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Retail: converging on 3%yr but WA lifting
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsnsa
17
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Health: WA the only state above 4%
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
18
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Public admin: WA lifting rest moderating
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
19
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Admin: Vic below 3%, WA soars, NSW middling
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
20
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Industries with soft WPI growth
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7%yr%yr
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsoriginal data
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
acc & food servicestransport, postal & warehousinginformation & mediautilities
21
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Acc & food: NSW & Vic ease, WA accelerates
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
22
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Transport: Contained around 3%yr
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
23
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Information & media: pressure easing
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
24
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Utilities: holding around or under 4%yr
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
Vic
NSW
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
25
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Industries with soft WPI growth
4
56
7
4
56
7%yr%yr
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsoriginal data
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
educationarts & recreational services
other servicesmanufacturing
26
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Manufact. NSW wage inflation still robust
4
5
6
4
5
6% ann% ann
Vic
WA
NSW
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
1
2
3
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Qld
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsnsa
27
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Education: NSW & Vic behind the drag
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
nsa*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Vic WA
NSW QldSources: ABS, Westpac Economics
28
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Wages by state: WA is starting to kick again
WA wage inflation is clearly kicking higher. Not onlyis the stage average 4.6%yr for private wages vs.
national average 3.7%yr, but 8 of the 10 sectorsmeasured by the ABS in WA have wages runningabove the national average for that sector.
29
In Qld of the 13 sectors measured have wageinflation above the national average for that sector.
In Vic & NSW only 4 of the 14 sectors have wageinflation running above the national average.
Wage pressures are clearly increasing in WA, andstarting to build in Qld, but to date these pressure arenot spreading to the south-east.
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Private WPI; WA on the rise again
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
Vic WA
NSW Qld
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economicsnsa
30
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WA: 8 of 10 sectors > national average
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
man.construct.miningretailaccom. & foodtrans.professionsadmin.
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics *Total hourly rate ex bonuses
31
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Qld: 6 of 13 sectors > national average
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
man.construct.miningretailaccom. & foodtrans.professionsadmin.
Sources: ABS,Westpac Economics
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
32
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NSW: 4 of 14 sectors > national average
5
6
7
5
6
7% ann% ann
utilitiesconst.
man.wholesaleretailaccom & foodtrans.
Sources: ABS,Westpac Economics
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
33
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Vic: 4 of 14 sectors > national average
5
6
7
8
5
6
7
8% ann% ann
utilitiesconst.man.
wholesaleretailaccom & foodtrans.
Sources: ABS,Westpac Economics
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
*Total hourly rate ex bonuses
34
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DisclaimerDisclaimer
Westpac Institutional Bank is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. Informationcurrent as at date above. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial
situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness,
having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Westpacs financial services guide can be obtained
by calling 132 032, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may containmaterial provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts
no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpacintends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without noticeand Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become
apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number
35
.
company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services
Authority. Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally chartered branch, regulated by theOffice of the Controller of the Currency and is not affiliated with either: (i) a broker dealer registered with the USSecurities Exchange Commission; or (ii) a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US Commodity
Futures Trading Commission. If you wish to be removed from our e-mail, fax or mailing list please send an e-mailto [email protected] or fax us on +61 2 8254 6934 or write to Westpac Economics at Level 2, 275Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000. Please state your full name, telephone/fax number and company details on all
correspondence. 2012 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of futureperformance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken
to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affectedby incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differsubstantially from these forecasts.
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