Vulnerability Impact Assessment (VIA) in Panchase, Nepal By:
Madhav Karki, Ph.D. For ISET-Nepal EBA project team
GON/MFSC-UNDP/UNEP-IUCN Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Project,
Nepal
Slide 2
Outline Brief Introduction of Panchase Purpose and Process of
VIA Adapting to the UNEP/WCMC Guide - Conceptual Framework:
Integrating EBA and CBA Tools -EBA Strategy Methodology Preliminary
Results Implications to the ongoing Work
Slide 3
Panchase Conservation Area (VDC Boundaries)
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Panchase Conservation Area (Watershed boundaries)
Slide 5
Panchase Ecosystems: unique and challenging Climatic conditions
(e.g. sub-tropical-temperate); Geophysical conditions (e.g.
mountainous); Dominant land use by humans (e.g. agriculture and
forestry ecosystem); Land cover mainly forest, grassland, fresh
water, and agriculture; Species composition (e.g.
Oak-Castanopsis-Quercus forests); Resource management systems and
institutions (e.g. protected and community managed forests, open
grazing, mixed farming system).
Slide 6
Population Growth/Decline in Project Districts Source: CBS,
2011 DistrictGeograp hic area (skm) 1991 Census data 2001 Census
data 2011 Census data Rate of Pop. Growth (2001-2011)
Kaski2017292945380527490429 +29% or +2.9%/anum
Parbat494143547157826147076 -6.8% or - 0.68%/anum
Syangja1164293526317320288040 -9.23% or - 0.923%/anum
Slide 7
Population data by VDC (2011)
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Slide 9
Purpose and Use of VIA To assess impacts of CC not only on
society but also on the ecosystem and the links between the two, To
define the objectives and focus of adaptation using ecosystem
services in the centre. To develop a knowledge base for developing
human centred adaptation strategy for ecosystem management to
develop adaptation strategies that reduce climate sensitive risks
and enhance resilience of community & ecosystem
VIA of the Society & Ecosystem (Source: UNEP/WCMC
Guidelines)
Slide 12
General Process for VIA and EBA strategy development (UNEP/WCMC
Guidelines)
Slide 13
Climate Impacts on Fragile Systems and Marginal Agents (Source:
ISET)
Slide 14
Coupled Human-Environmental System (CHES) ( Adapted from
Locatelli, et al (2008)
Slide 15
Conception of System as gateways
Slide 16
Integration of EBA & CBA Tool Both CBA & EBA are
human-centred Ecosystem goods and services are critical resources
for people-centred adaptation Both aim to scale up and make
community-driven CBA reduce peoples vulnerability; EBA enhances
resilience Both recognize the relevance of local specificities CBA
empowers people; EBA strengthen community- based approaches
Integrated approaches better address shortcomings of both
Slide 17
EBA strategy Capitalize on natural resilience of human and
eco-systems to a certain threshold level of changes; Build on these
social and bio-physical system strengths ecosystem services are
available for adaptation now and in future; Develop knowledge
through traditional and scientific sources and processes Develop
adaptation strategies that reduce climate sensitive risks and
builds system resilience
Slide 18
Sustainable Management of Ecosystem Biodiversity Conservation
Restoration of Ecosystem People and ecosystem EbA Strategic
Framework Socio-economic Change Land use Land cover Change Climate
Change
Slide 19
Different Interpretation of Vulnerability (Source: OBrian et
al, 2007) Note: In the EBA context, Contextual Vulnerability is
appropriate as the impacts are due to surrounding changes and
existing conditions:
Slide 20
Landscape-based Vulnerability Assessment (adapted from
Klausmeyer et al 2011) Vulnerability Habitat Fragmentation Habitat
Loss Geo- graphy Hydro- logy Topo- graphy Historical Climate
Variability Climate Change indicators Exposure Buffering Features
Sensitivity Exposure Landscape ExposureClimate Stress Adaptive
Constraints Impacts
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1. Assess Vulnerability 2. Assess Impacts 3. Assess Adaptive
Constraints Community of practices 6 Resource maps 4. Assess
changed sensitivity and exposure 5. New vulnerability due to
Climate Stress Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) envelop Adapted VIA
Process for Panchase: 7. Adaptation planning & options Review
of methods 8.Prioritized for implementation Knowledge &
Information Base Monitoring and Evaluation Enhanced Risk &
Threats
Slide 22
Steps for Localized System-based Vulnerability Assessment (VIA
Tools for Panchase) 1.Participatory Resource Mapping 2.Adaptation
Capacity/Constraint Assessment 3.Vulnerability Trend Assessment
4.Current Climate Vulnerability Mapping 5.Landscape Level
Vulnerability Mapping 6.Community-level Climate Change Perception
7.Participatory Scenario Building 8.Adaptation Planning and
Visioning (Shared Learning Dialogue) 9.Adaptation Strategy
Development
Slide 23
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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Panchase Conservation Area (Land Use Land Cover Map, 1993)
Slide 25
Panchase Conservation Area (Land Use Land Cover 2010) (Source:
ICIMOD)
Temperature Trend Kaski (804)* * The number in the bracket is
the DHM Station Number
Slide 33
Temperature Trend Kaski (804)
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Temperature Trend, Syangja (805)
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Temperature Trend, Syangja 805
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Temperature Trend, Parbat 614
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Slide 38
Preliminary Results (Climate Stress) Cs+ Exposure +Sensitivity
Based on the increasing trend both in historical and predicted
Temperature data as well as high regional variability, the
temperature related exposure and sensitivity are Moderate to High;
Since Rainfall indicates no trend with higher frequency of extreme
events observed and predicted, moisture stress in the month of May
is expected to be Moderate.
Slide 39
Preliminary Results (Landscape Exposure) LE= topography+
hydrology+ geography (t+h+g) As the series of Maps indicate, the
Landscape is characterized by mountainous/hilly topography with
moderate to high slope gradients dominated by Southern &
Western facing aspects (that are generally dry), as well as the
hydrology is characterized by extreme events; the Landscape
Exposure is considered Moderate.
Slide 40
VDCs Perceptional Current Vulnerability Ranking (Very low=1,
Low=2, Moderate=3, High=4, Very high=5) SYSTEMS Drinking water
Forest Agriculture Irrigation Transportation (Roads/Trails)
indicative endangered species Electricity Other Energy
Communication Grazing area Land and Ecosystem Parbat Khaulalakuri
555544 Ramja deurali 445551441 Chitre 4245 Tilahar 5544 Arthar
Dandakharka 35245443 Pakuwa 555535 Kaski Chapakot 2235221
Pumdibhumdi 43543532 Kaskokot 513352 Sarangkot 323531 Dhikurpokhari
3242431 Bhadaure Tamagi 3242413 Salyan 5444 Syangja Bhatkhola 5424
Bangephadke 425452 Arukharka 4135 Bangsingh Deurali 544445
Slide 41
First order ward level vulnerability ranking ( based on field
survey & gateway system )
Slide 42
Preliminary Results: Priority Themes for EBA EBA Thematic
AreasPriority Counts Remarks Water related adaptation
project/programme: 12 Rehab. Of Drinking Water Sources and
Irrigation Structures Agriculture related adaptation project/
programme: 9 Diversifications and Water Availability Road related
adaptation project/ programme: 3 Road Stabilization and Resilient
Construction Energy related adaptation project/ programme: 2
Renewable and Clean Local Energy Solutions Forest related
adaptation project/ programme: 2 Forest and Wildlife Management to
Improve Livelihoods and Reduce People- WL conflict Land management
from landslide 1 Landslides/Erosion Prevention and Rehab.
Slide 43
Adaptation decision (sample) B: Project name: Wildlife and
Forest Conservation 1.Activity Options: a)Increase tourism
b)Improve conservation of forest resources c)Protect and conserve
water resources d)Conserve wildlife, grassland and habitat
e)Conserve biodiversity 2.Objectives: a)Enhance tourism b)Publicize
and promote Panchase conservation area widely c)Manage wildlife by
protecting/improving habitats d)Stop deforestation and forest fire
e)Identify and manage important medicinal herbs to increase income
source 3. Operations (Activities): a)Local people should be made
aware and concerned about the value of conservation b)Conservation
with the help of helping/supportive local organizations c)Create
fire lines to avoid forest fire d)Completely avoid/stop illegal
hunting e)Carry out afforestation in barren land to conserve
habitat f)Improve Public awareness through knowledge sharing g)Give
special importance to endangered special for their conservation
Resources necessary: Technicians service and technical knowhow;
Financial support Improve human resources by building capacity,
transfer skills, and conduct training
Slide 44
4 VDC clusters were formed local communities were engaged in
listing possible adaptation activities based on the Vulnerability
scenario discussed This shared learning methods helped identify 7
thematic activities Out of these 2 to 3 options were prioritized
one of which is on Forest and Biodiversity Conservation a
Adaptation Scenario Building Process
