VT Law Eco-EconJune 17, 2005

Gary Flomenhofthttp://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/VTLAW-EcoEcon//

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For those who would institute change have enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and they have only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order.”

Nicolo Machiavelli, 1490

Climate ChangeSummary of Facts

2 Billion Years of Temperature History

300 Million yrs of CO2

60 Million yrs of CO2

Summary of Units

K=Kilo=thousand=103

M=Mega=million=106

G=Giga=Billion=109

T=Tera=Trillion=1012

Quad=Quadrillion=1015

Exa=1018

Relevant units: BTU= Unit of energy needed to raise one pound of water by one degree fahrenheit=1005J=778ft-lb=252cal

Joule=. 0.001 BTU

Watts=VxA=1 Joule/second

Watt-hour=one Watt for one hour

Quad=Quadrillion (1015) BTU

The Carbon Question

963

726

484

8 7 5 4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Coal Gas Wind SolarThermal

Oil Nuclear PV

Met

ric

ton

s p

er G

Wh

e

World GDP and CO2

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

1000

0

25

50

75

100

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Use

wood

animal feed

coal

oil

gas

electricity

Per

cen

t o

f to

tal

ener

gy

use

CO2 vs WORLD GDP

270

290

310

330

350

370

$1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000

WORLD GDP Billions of 1990 Intl $$ Log scale (source: De Long)

ATM

CO

2 C

ON

CEN

TR

ATIO

N p

art

s p

er

million

(ppm

)

GDP 1825: ~$200 BILLION

2000: $41,000 B ILLION OR $41 TRILLION

=205X 1825 level.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950

Fuel

DomesticatedAnimals

Labor

Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970

750650550450 ppmv

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

Ann

ual E

mis

sion

s (G

tC)

Stabilization Targets

Greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.

How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?

8.0

5.8

7.6

6.4

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bill

ion

tons

of

carb

on

Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996

7,415

8,504

11,651

15,715

4,235

4,054

2,331

1,361

96650,795

1,557

2,080

2,118

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

United States

Indonesia

Korea, Rep.

Brazil

Australia

Mexico

South Africa

Canada

India

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

China

Million tons of carbon

Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Per capita emissions of carbon from industrial sources, 1996

1.88

2.10

2.46

2.54

2.59

2.87

2.91

4.63

0.33

0.29

5.37

0.46

0.76

1.02

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

United States

India

Indonesia

Brazil

China

Mexico

South Africa

Ukraine

Korea, Rep.

Japan

United Kingdom

Germany

Russian Federation

Australia

Thousand tons of carbon

SINK-CLIMATE CHANGEArctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs

CLIMATE DAMAGE

CLIMATE DAMAGE

CLIMATE DAMAGE

CLIMATE DAMAGE

Europe in August 2003

COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS

France 14,802Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.

Germany 7000High temperatures of up to 105.4 degreesFahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average.

Spain 4230High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold.

Italy 4175Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.

UK 2045The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London.

Neth 1400Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.

Portugal 1316Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country.

Belgium 150Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.

TOTAL 35,118

Ocean Conveyor Belt-(Thermohaline)

Methane-hydrates

"Kyoto and its policies are inconsistent with freedom, prosperity and environmental policy progress," said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. "I’m becoming more and more convinced, as time goes by and we look at the research, that global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people and the world."

MSNBC News Link 12/10/03

Flo’s Eco-Illogical Cycle

A) Adversariali) Direct actionii) Legaliii) Boycotts

B) Transformationali) Lobbyingii) Educationiii) Legal

C) Exemplary/Personal: individual vs collective actioni) Boycott/buycottii) SR investingiii) Whistleblowingiv) Eco-villages

Types of strategies/tactics: advocacy vs. service: Case Studies