PRESIDENTIAL CONSIDERATION RESULTS

METHODOLOGY

SURVEY INFORMATION §  1008 autodial phone interviews

conducted among likely Republican primary voters in the early states of New Hampshire (21%), Iowa (21%), and South Carolina (59%).

§  Conducted May 19-20, 2015 §  Margin of error is +/- 3.1%

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND CONSIDERATION

94

93

89

88

88

88

87

87

86

80

79

73

67

61

7

7

11

12

12

13

14

14

14

21

22

27

33

39

JEB BUSH

MIKE HUCKABEE

CHRIS CHRISTIE

RAND PAUL

MARCO RUBIO

RICK SANTORUM

TED CRUZ

LINDSEY GRAHAM

RICK PERRY

BEN CARSON

SCOTT WALKER

BOBBY JINDAL

CARLY FIORINA

JOHN KASICH

1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware

Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is

unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a

candidate were considered ‘Aware,’ while those who selected 9 were considered ‘Not Aware.’

CANDIDATE AWARENESS

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate.

Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you don’t know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.

15

21

19

13

15

11

8

7

6

6

5

6

10

4

41

31

29

33

28

31

33

33

28

24

25

23

18

12

25

33

33

22

29

22

26

30

30

26

43

48

28

56

10

8

10

15

15

16

18

18

19

20

15

12

17

13

9

8

10

17

14

20

15

13

18

26

12

12

28

15

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

BEN CARSON

MIKE HUCKABEE

TED CRUZ

JEB BUSH

RAND PAUL

RICK PERRY

RICK SANTORUM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

BOBBY JINDAL

CARLY FIORINA

LINDSEY GRAHAM

JOHN KASICH

2-3 Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider 5-6 Not Consider 4+9 Neutral 1 Certainly Consider Mean Scores

3.28

3.12

3.41

3.82

3.73

4.03

3.97

4.21

4.55

4.05

4.03

4.33

3.99

4.51

52

47

45

42

42

RUBIO

WALKER

BUSH

PAUL

CARSON

Iowa New Hampshire

CANDIDATE PREFERENCE BY STATE

64

57

57

54

48

WALKER

RUBIO

HUCKABEE

CARSON

CRUZ

57

49

48

47

42

RUBIO

WALKER

CARSON

HUCKABEE

CRUZ

South Carolina

We compared the total consideration scores for the candidates in each state and listed the top 5.

10

9

8

7

7

6

6

6

4

2

2

2

30

SCOTT WALKER

BEN CARSON

MARCO RUBIO

JEB BUSH

MIKE HUCKABEE

RAND PAUL

TED CRUZ

LINDSEY GRAHAM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

RICK SANTORUM

RICK PERRY

CARLY FIORINA

JOHN KASICH

BOBBY JINDAL

UNDECIDED

Derived ballot is based on candidate rank order among the individual respondent candidate ratings.  If a respondent had a clear candidate preference (they ranked that candidate more positively than all others) that candidate received one vote.  Respondents’ preferences were split proportionally if they rated 2 or 3 candidates most highly. If a voter was split among more than 3 candidates or they did not rank any candidates positively, they were labeled undecided.

DERIVED BALLOT

We looked at each candidate’s total consideration score (1-3) and subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of

each candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.

Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth

8

10

7

9

2

6

7

6

4

2

1

2

6

1

48 42

39 39

38 37

35 35

34 32

29 27

22 15

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

MIKE HUCKABEE

BEN CARSON

RICK PERRY

TED CRUZ

JEB BUSH

RAND PAUL

CHRIS CHRISTIE

RICK SANTORUM

BOBBY JINDAL

CARLY FIORINA

LINDSEY GRAHAM

JOHN KASICH

POTENTIAL GROWTH

LESS VIABLE

Kasich Fiorina

Christie

Santorum

Jindal

Perry

Cruz

Carson

Huckabee Bush

Walker

Rubio

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Paul Graham

Total Consideration 1-3 %

Tota

l Der

ived

Bal

lot %

CONVERSION RATE

*Conversion rate was calculated by dividing the total derived ballot by the total consideration (1-3) score.

TOP CHOICES

HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. BALLOT

Graham 21% Carson 19% Walker 19% Bush 17% Huckabee 15% Paul 15% Rubio 14% Cruz 14% Christie 11% Fiorina 7% Kasich 6% Santorum 6% Perry 5% Jindal 3%

IDEOLOGIES & ISSUE PREFERENCES

55 45

Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find reasonable compromises to get things done, or should they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not

compromise, even if things don’t get done in the short-run?

Stand by principles Get Things

Done

26

25

17

16

9

7

Mainstream

Social Conservative

Tea Party

Could Support Any

Unsure

Libertarian

Generally speaking what type of

candidate do you prefer nominating?

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES

37

29

23

9

3

45

33

17

3 2

Very Conservative

Somewhat Conservative

Moderate Somewhat Liberal

Very Liberal

SOC

IAL

FISC

AL

How would you describe your views in the area of (social/fiscal) issues?

•  28% of Republican primary voters are both very socially and very fiscally conservative.

•  61% are both socially conservative and fiscally conservative.

•  17% are socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative.

ISSUE PREFERENCES

PERCEPTION OF IRAQ INVASION

26

33

19

14

8

Definitely Probably Probably Not Definitely Not Unsure

Looking back now, and regardless of what you thought at the time, do you think it was the right

decision for the United States to invade Iraq in 2003?

59-8-33

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION

29 31

19

2

7

13

Evangelical Protestant

Mainline Protestant

Roman Catholic

Non- Christian

Agnostic/ Atheist/

Non-Religious

Unsure/ Prefer Not

to Say

Which of the following best describe your religious affiliation?

WWW.POPPOLLING.COM