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V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya
10 September 2012Łódź, Poland
Joint AMO and PDO manifestations in the winter wheat yield in Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Aim to study how Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) influence on low-frequency variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine
Data sets Regional winter wheat yield (1945–2008) in
different agroclimatic zones of Ukraine: woodland, forest steppe, steppe
Monthly AMO and PDO indices (1990–2008)
Long-term series of monthly in-situ precipitation & temperature (1990–2008)
Frequency and depth of cyclones and anticyclones (1948–2006) over Ukraine obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets
Agroclimatic zones of Ukraine
Winter wheat yield in 1945-2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
45
19
48
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
Yie
ld, c
entn
ers/
ha
Woodland
Forest-steppe
Steppe
Ukraine
Regional factors
tair and p are mean values for the
vegetation period of winter wheat
92,0;15,023,1 2 RptY airWL
82,0;28,004,2 2 RptY airFS
89,0;48,084,0 2 RptY airS
89,0;6,804,0 2 RaсY fdUkrcd – depth of cyclonesaf – frequency of anticyclones
AIR TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION
SINOPTIC SYSTEMS (CYCLONES & ANTICYCLONES)
Global factors
[http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/]
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation
[http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/]
Winter wheat yield (average for Ukraine)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
aWinter wheat yield - WOODLAND
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
a
Winter wheat yield - FOREST-STEPPE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
aWinter wheat yield - STEPPE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
a
1970
1965-1970
1965
Climate shift in XX century
The climate shift in 1965–75 was found in the variability of winter wheat yield
0
10
20
30
40
Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe
Yie
ld, c
en
tne
r/h
a
AMO+
AMO-
Association with
AMO
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
An
om
aly,
sig
ma
Detrended winter wheat yield
AMO index
R=-0,6
Average long-term differences
Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level
0
10
20
30
40
Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe
Yie
ld, c
en
tne
r/h
a
PDO-
PDO+
Association with
PDO
Average long-term differences
-2
-1
0
1
2
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Res
idu
als,
sig
ma
-1
0
1
PD
O in
dex
PDO index
Standardized residuals
R=0,4
Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level
What are the joint AMO and PDO manifestations?
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
An
om
aly
,sig
ma
Precipitation (Woodland)
PDO-AMO index
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
An
om
aly
, sig
ma
Air temperature (Sevastopol)
PDO-AMO index
PDO-AMO index as an indicator of joint influence
Joint AMO & PDO manifestations
-2
-1
0
1
2
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
An
om
aly,
sig
ma
Winter wheat yield
PDO-AMO index
R=-0,57
3,0;785,0 2 RIY AMOPDOUkr
Conclusions
The climatic shift in 1965–75 associated with multidecadal processes in the ocean-atmosphere system was found in the variability winter wheat yield in Ukraine
During AMO+ or PDO- phases the winter wheat yield is 10–15 centners/ha higher than during AMO- or PDO+ phase
The joint influence of AMO and PDO determines about 30% of the variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!