Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties stand for Dr Stephen Sherlock Dr Greg Fealy

Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties system works and what the parties

stand forstand for

Dr Stephen SherlockDr Stephen SherlockDr Greg FealyDr Greg Fealy

Part IPart I

How the electoral system How the electoral system worksworks

Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy

Best functioning democracy in Southeast Asia (compare Thailand, Malaysia, Burma)

1999 – will the election be free & fair and without violence? Will the military withdraw from politics?

2004 – will direct presidential election succeed? 2009 – refining & developing the system Now in second stage of democratic governance

reform – eg. Anti-corruption Commission, Constitutional Court

2009 – Year of voting frequently

There will be 5 (possibly 6) elections in 2009. 9 April – Legislative elections

National Parliament (DPR) Regional Representative Council (DPD) Provincial “Parliaments” (DPRD-I) District “Parliaments” (DPRD-II)

8 July – Presidential elections (1st round) 8 September – Presidential elections (2nd round) Third parliamentary election (1999, 2004, 2009) Second direct presidential election (2004, 2009)

9 April Elections

DPRDPDDPRD – I DPRD – II

Election results2.5% threshold (seats)20% threshold (president)

Cow-trading (dagang sapi)

8 July 1st Round50% threshold20% in 66% provinces

8 Sept 2nd Round50% threshold

October

DPR & DPD inaugurated

October

MPR (DPR + DPD) inaugurates President & VP

2009 elections cycle: parliamentary & presidential – 5 year fixed term

2014

Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking

171,068,667 registered voters East Java 29,294,127 West Papua 509,580

33 provinces 489 districts (kabupaten/kota) 77 electoral districts (daerah pemilihan) 600,000 voting stations 11,868 candidates in DPR Administered by the independent General

Elections Commission (KPU)

4 April – DPR (House of Representatives)

560 Members (increased from 550) Elected by proportional representation (PR)

Multi-member electoral districts (3 to 10 seats per district)

Parties win seats in proportion to their vote Electoral districts cannot cross provincial

boundaries Large provinces have a number of districts – eg W.

Java 11 districts with 6 to 10 seats (total = 91 seats) Medium-sized provinces have fewer districts – eg Sth

Sulawesi 3 districts with 7 to 9 seats (total = 24 seats) Small provinces have 1 district – eg Maluku 1 district

with 3 seats (total = 3 seats)

"Big Seven" Parties Percentage of parliamentary seats

0

5

10

15

20

25

Golkar PDIP Democrat PPP PKB PAN PKS Others

Changes to the electoral system will have huge political effects

New regulations have changed the way the campaign is being fought

Will alter the composition of the DPR Affect the way coalitions are formed for

presidential candidates Constitutional Court decisions on the electoral

law have changed the rules of the game

From “closed list” to “open list” PR

Gradual reform since 1999 election In 1999 “closed list” system meant voters could only vote

for a party. Parties listed their candidates in strict order – ie those at

the top would be elected. Widely criticised for allowing domination by parties

MPs ignored their constituency Many candidates bought their position on the party ticket

In 2004, voters could also vote for a candidate – but only if they also voted for the party (ie. invalid if they only chose a individual) In 2004, only one seat was won through individual vote Even though 52% of voters supported an individual

2009 electoral law moved further towards “open list” system Voters could vote for candidate or party Candidates who received 30%+ of a quota in

personal votes would be put into a count for the allocation of seats

eg. if a party won 3 seats and had 2 candidates with 30%+, those 2 candidates would take up seats and the 3rd allocated to the candidate on No.1 on party list

Greatly increased the chances of election on personal votes, but still weighting for party list

But…

Constitutional Court ruled the law to be unconstitutional

Declared party list weighting to contrary to the Constitution

Candidates with the largest number of votes should be allocated seats

This system will greatly increase the no. of voters who vote for an individual

But it still leaves open the question of what to do with “party only” votes

Govt seems to be leaving to question to the KPU

Const. Court ruling – the political effects

Campaign strategies completely changed - shifted from party focus to candidate focus

Previously dominated by national leaders, now by local candidates candidates have demanded their money back from the

party – position on party list no longer a valuable commodity

Candidates of same party competing against each other reporting each other to election oversight body on

alleged campaign violations Govt. shifting decision-making responsibility to

KPU has created uncertainty

Electoral District of North Somewhere – District no II

Red Party

Symbol

Blue Party

Symbol

Green Party

Symbol

Yellow Party

Symbol

White Party

Symbol

Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1





Candidate 6 Candidate 6 Candidate 6 Candidate 6

Candidate 7 Candidate 7 Candidate 7

Candidate 8

Other changes: Threshold for winning parliamentary seats

Only parties that win 2.5% of the total vote nationally are allocated seats

A party may win more than 2.5% in several electoral districts but not win seats because below national threshold

This regulation would remove all but one of the minor parties in the current DPR Crescent Star Party (PBB) won 2.6% in 2004

Affirmative action for women candidates

New electoral law says party lists must contain 30% female candidates

The sanction for non-compliance is weak But all parties have complied

1 in 3 candidates in a list should be female – ie not all women in “unwinnable” districts – “zipper”

“Zipper” rule was expected to increase chances for women candidates by placing them high on the party list

But Const. Court ruling has eliminated the effect

Presidential election system

Candidates must be nominated by a political party or coalition of parties

Party or coalition must receive 20% of DPR seats or 25% of votes to nominate a candidate

Only Golkar & PDIP are likely to receive this level of support

Small parties will have to join with one of the 2 big parties or form a larger coalition

This will limit the number of candidates In 2004 there were 6 candidates In 2009 there could only be 4 candidates

Party D

(eg Dem)

Party E

Party B

Party F

Party A

(eg. GolkarPDIP)

Party C

Party G

(eg PKS)

Party H

Party J

Party KParty L

Party M

Party NParty OParty P

Coalition building for presidential candidates

20%threshold

1 2 3 4

Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building

Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg Golkar) needs a ticket with high profile candidate (2004 Wiranto poor result) PDIP may be tempted to think it has both

High profile candidate with small party (eg SBY) needs a ticket with a big party to meet 20% threshold

One of the two candidates must have strong financial backing (eg Kalla for SBY)

Balance of nationalist-Islam (eg SBY-Kalla, Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid)

Regional Representative Council (DPD)

Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral system.

DPD has advisory powers only. Can draft bills on regional matters to submit to the

DPR Can submit its opinions to the DPR on bills and on

government policy on regional matters But does not pass reject or amend bills

DPD an unusual combination of strong legitimacy from direct election but weak powers

DPD – how it is elected

128 seats 4 seats per province, regardless of size

W. Java – population 36 m (9m/member) N Maluku – population 1m (250,000/member)

DPD Members must be “individuals” – ie independents, not party representatives

“single non-transferable vote” (SNTV) system Voters vote for one candidate from provincial list

DPD – how it is elected (cont.)

Province of North Somewhere








Regional legislative elections (DPRD) Elections for provincial & district

legislatures also occur 9 April (ie. 4 votes) Elections for governors & district heads

(Pilkada) held separately (E. Java this month) Each province has assembly according to

population – 35 to 100 seats11m or more – 100 seats (E.W.C. Java) 9-11m – 85 seats (Banten)1m or less – 35 seats (W. Papua, N.Maluku)

Presidential election system cont..

Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice presidential joint ticket

Internationally, the pair will usually be from the same party, or close coalition

But all parties are small + threshold law So candidate pairing is the process by which

parties build coalitions But this cannot happen until after DPR election Result is speculation until close before election

Documents

Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties stand for Dr Stephen Sherlock Dr Greg Fealy