Visions of Europe in the world

Workshop 2THE “CENTRE-PERIPHERY” VISION: towards a dissymmetrical Euro-Mediterranean pattern

WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.Share in the World population & GDP, 1952-1998

WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.Synthesis

WORLD EVIDENCES - Bilateral international trade flows (1996-2000, EU25 aggregated)

VISIONS - The vision of world division by the ESPON members (Survey)

VISIONS- Official development assistance to the neighbourhood and the EU share (members and Commission, ann. average 2001-04)

VISIONS - Destination of German Foreign Direct Investmentin the neighbourhood (stock, 2003)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

VISIONS – Share of the neighbourhood in FDI (out stocks)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

4 Dragons (HK, Sing., Korea, Taiw an)

China

other S-E Asia & Pacif ic

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Mexico

Caribbean & central America (Mexico excluded)

South America

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1992

2003 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1992

2003

France Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

Germany Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Spain Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI

USA Japan

REGIONAL EVIDENCES – The center-periphery delimitation varies in the time (e.g. GDP / inhab.)

REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Egypt tourism (origins of tourists to Egypt, ann. average 2001-2003)

REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Demographic and markets opportunity Population in 2030 Demographic development

1955-2045

Territorial assets of the North-South Vision

• 1- A deeper Euro mediterranean integration, despite being asymmetrical (2010 free trade zone)

• 2- Mediterranean European territories will boost their development

• 3- Europe improves catching up with Asian and American counterparts (although not on the high-tech base of the Lisbon strategy)

Shortcomings of the North-South Vision

• 1- The relocation of the environmental burden on the southern shore of the Mediterranean is not sustainable

• 2- No de-pollution of the Mediterranean• 3- No change in the migration mix: mainly low educated

migrants toward Mediterranean Europe• 4- Southern brain drain is not stopped• 5- North Africa as gatekeeper against sub-Saharan African

migrants

Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion

Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion

Global cities

Global gateway

National capitals or other major cities

Rural regions

Touristic regions

Old industrial regions

High tech regions