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Vision 4: Our Resilient City
September 8, 2016
Made up of leading climate and social scientists
All projections subject to rigorous peer review
Focus on climate risks:
• Temperature • Precipitation • Changes in sea level • Extreme events
2
New York City Panel on Climate Change
By the 2050s:4.1oF to 5.7oF increase in average temperature 4% to 11% increase in average annual precipitationSea levels likely to rise 1‐2 ft.; maybe 2½ ft.
By 2100:High‐end projections may reach 6 ft.
By the 2050s:Number of days in NYC above 90⁰ could triple
Even today:100‐year floodplain expanded by 17 square miles (51%) citywide; 2.3 ft. average increase in 100‐year flood elevations; will increase with further sea level rise; now encompasses 71,500 structures
The NYC Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) projects increased chronic climate hazards…
…and increased impact from extreme weather events.
Climate Change / 21st Century Threats…And grapple with the impacts of climate change on our city.
FEMA 2007 Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs)
FEMA 2007 FIRMs 100‐year Floodplain
Source: FEMA
100‐year Floodplain*
1983FIRMs
Residents 218,000
Jobs 214,000
Buildings 36,000
1‐4 Family 26,000
Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 377M
FIRMs not significantly updated since 1983
City called on FEMA to initiate new maps in 2007
Climate Change / 21st Century ThreatsPrior to Sandy, FEMA’s Flood Insurance Rate Maps, initially produced in 1983, were the best indicator of flood risk in the five boroughs…
100‐year Floodplain*
2007FIRMs
2015 PFIRMs
Change (%)
Residents 218,000 400,000 83%
Jobs 214,000 290,800 35%
Buildings 36,000 71,500 99%
1‐4 Family 26,000 53,000 104%
Multifamily 3,200 5,300 66%
Units 138,500 183,000 32%
Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 377M 532M 42%
FEMA 2015 Preliminary FIRMs 100‐year Floodplain
FEMA 2007 FIRMs 100‐year Floodplain
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
FEMA 2007 FIRMs vs. Preliminary FIRMs
Source: FEMA
NYC Preliminary Floodplain Population
OneNYC: Our Resilient CityThis plan builds on prior efforts in both the current and prior administrations…
2007 & 2011 2013 2014
Task 1: Select a
statistically significant sample
Task 3: Evaluate economic impact of premium increases
Task 2: Gather structure
elevation and demographic
data
Task 4: Analyze
mitigation tools and
affordability programs
RAND 1‐4 Family Study Tasks
9
Multi‐Family Study Major takeaways
UNIVERSE OF BUILDINGS AT RISK: Multifamily and mixed use structures in the high‐risk floodplain contain 81% of housing units, with number of structures growing by 30% in 2013 PFIRM and 40% by 2020s.
1
COVERAGE AND COSTS: NFIP insures 42% of multifamily and mixed‐use structures in the high‐risk floodplain (20% of regulated units), but due to coverage limits many structures are unable to secure meaningful coverage.
2
PERCEPTIONS OF INSURANCE AND RISK: Owners and managers are not well‐informed about their flood insurance policies, and there is confusion within the brokerage industry. There is little to no incentive to mitigate to offset costs.
3
Developed by The Center for NYC Neighborhoods
Our Growing, Thriving City
Our Just and Equitable
City
Our Sustainable City
Our Resilient City
OneNYC: Our Four Visions
NeighborhoodsStrengthen community, social, and economic resiliency
BuildingsUpgrade buildings against changing climate impacts; increase take‐up of flood insurance
InfrastructureAdapt infrastructure systems to enable continued services
Coastal Defense Strengthen coastal defenses against flooding and sea level rise
OneNYC: Our Resilient City
Successful implementation requires intense federal, state, local private and non‐profit coordination; as well as incentives for individual action
• Simple, configurable• Focus on people and process• Clear ownership of initiatives• Interim targets and milestones
Implementation: Tracking Systems
Infrastructure
1‐4 Family Mitigation Challenges
Charleston, South Carolina—Zone VE Alexandria, Virginia – Zone AE
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania – Zone AE Tampa, Florida – Zone VE
Multifamily Mitigation Challenges