Virginia Government Finance Officers’ Associationvgfoa.asp.radford.edu/2006 Fall Conference/chumra... · 2007-01-09 · US Data through August 2006. Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics

1

Virginia Government Finance Officers’ Association

Economic Update With Application Toward Local

Revenues

The National and Regional Economies—

National growth has slowed but remains strongProductivity growth very important to long-term growthFed is at the end of the tightening cycleRisks: housing, oil prices, dollar

State growth has slowed but remains positiveVaries around the stateHousing activity is slowing

Slower price appreciation impacts revenues from assessmentsSlower housing sales impacts recordation taxes

Slower retail sales impacts growth of local 1%Counties and cities see revenue growth but not as much as last yearEducation is important for regional growth

2

Real GDP Slows in Second Quarter

Data through 2nd Quarter 2006.Recessions are shaded.

Quarterly Annualized Percent Change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

The Fed’s Goal: 3.0% - 3.5% Real GDP Growth?

Disinflation

Inflation Pressures

Unemployment FallsCapacity Utilization RisesSlower Deliveries

3.0% - 3.5%NoninflationaryEconomic Growth

3

How Fast Can the Economy Grow?

Source: CBO, January 2006.

1.7

2.51.6

1.2 1.20.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1951-1973 1974-1981 1982-1990 1991-1995 1995-2005 2006-2016

Labor Force

ForecastAnnual Growth Rate

How Fast Can the Economy Grow?

Source: CBO, January 2006.

1.7

2.1

2.5

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.5

1.2

2.1

0.7

2.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1951-1973 1974-1981 1982-1990 1991-1995 1996-2005 2006-2016

3.8

3.23.0

2.7

3.3

2.8

ForecastAnnual Growth RateProductivity +Labor Force =Potential GDP

4

Bernanke, April 27, 2006 Comments Joint Economic Committee, US Congress

• ``Even if in the committee's judgment the risks to its objectives are not entirely balanced, at some point in the future the committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook,''

• ``A decision to take no action at a particular meeting does not preclude actions at subsequent meetings. .”

• Future policy actions will be increasingly dependent on the evolution of the economic outlook, as reflected in the incoming data. Specifically, policy will respond to arriving information that affects the Committee's assessment of the medium-term risks to its objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. Focusing on the medium-term forecast horizon is necessary because of the lags with which monetary policy affects the economy.

St. Louis Fed President William Poole, Week of September 25, 2006

• “If inflation pressures are easing, even if only gradually, and there is a genuine prospect that inflation will return to the comfort zone, then I see no reason to accelerate the decline in inflation by maintaining a restrictive policy in the face of declining employment,”

• “If it appears that the economy is falling below the baseline forecast path, then my bias will be in the direction of wanting to be sure that the data paint a consistent picture before I advocate a policy easing. But if the picture is consistent, and inflation risk is receding, then I will not hesitate to advocate policy easing.”

• Poole will become a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next year and could take a voting slot at the next meeting if the Atlanta Federal Reserve does not have a new president in place.

5

Pace of Consumer Spending is Still Strong

Retail data through August 2006.Recessions are shaded.

Retail Sales and Inventory Growth% Change From Year Ago

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Inventories

Retail Sales

Businesses are Confident But Hiring is Off (Payroll Average Monthly Gain of 145,000 Over 12 Months)

Data through August 2006.Recessions are shaded.

Monthly Change in ThousandsEmployment Growth

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06

6

Factory Usage is Rising


Capacity Utilization Rate

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06

Computers, Communication Equipment, and Semiconductors

Total




55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95


Total

7




55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95


Computers, Communication Equipment, and Semiconductors

Total

Consumer Price Index (CPI)Consumer Price Index

% Change From Year Ago


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


Total

ExcludingFood & Energy

8

Looking Ahead:Real Gross Domestic Product

3.22.8

3.43.3

3.2

3.9

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

2007 mst.2007 alt.

2006 mst.2006 alt.

2005

2004

Real GDP Annual Percentage Growth Rate

U.S. Forecast

9

U.S. Forecast

What is the neutral fed funds rate?

Risk to the Forecast: Foreign Investment

Data through 4th Quarter 2005.

Net Foreign Flow of Dollars into US Treasuries and Agencies, Millions of Dollars

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Treasuries

Agencies

10




-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Treasuries

Agencies




-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Treasuries

Agencies

11

Summary: National Economy

• Housing will slow further (Risk—faster-than-expected)

• Consumer spending continues at a slower but moderate pace– Employment gains– Wage increases

• Businesses continue to invest• Short-term rate hikes end• Risk: Oil price rises again

Employment Growth By State, July 2006

Nevada 5.3%Utah 4.7%

Michigan -0.1%Louisiana -9.0%

Percentage Change From a Year Ago

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

#26 Virginia, 1.4%

#12 SC, 2.5% #16 NC, 2.1% #27 DE, 1.3%

#36 MD, 1.0%#30 TN, 1.2%

12

Virginia Continues to Grow Faster than the National Average

Employment GrowthPercentage Change From a Year Ago

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Apr-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05

United States

Virginia

Benchmark

Data through August 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and Virginia Employment Commission.

Employment Growth By Sector


0.9

-0.8-0.2

1.5 0.7

-3.2

2.91.41.1

-0.7

4.45.1

2.8

0.60.21.61.3

2.22.9 2.7

0.11.61.3

-0.2

2.2

-0.7

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Tota

l

Con

st

Mfg

TWU

Who

lesa

le

Ret

ail

Info

FIR

E

PBS

Educ

/Hea

lth

Leis

ure

Oth

erS

ervi

ces

Gov

t

VirginiaUS


13

Employment Growth By Sector


0.9

-0.8-0.2

1.5 0.7

-3.2

2.91.41.1

-0.7

4.45.1

2.8

0.60.21.61.3

2.22.9 2.7

0.11.61.3

-0.2

2.2

-0.7

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0To

tal

Con

st

Mfg

TWU

Who

lesa

le

Ret

ail

Info

FIR

E

PBS

Educ

/Hea

lth

Leis

ure

Oth

erS

ervi

ces

Gov

t

VirginiaUS


Claims Rising Slightly Point Toward Slower Job Growth

Data through July 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and Virginia Employment Commission.

Virginia: Initial Unemployment Claims6-Month Moving Average

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jun-92 Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06

14

Slower Retail Sales Point to Slower Growth in Sales Tax Receipts

Data through July 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and Virginia Department of Taxation.

Virginia: Retail SalesPercentage Change From a Year Ago, 6-Month Moving Average

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Auto Registrations Back Near Record Levels

Data through August 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and Virginia Department of Taxation.

Virginia: Auto RegistrationsPercentage Change From a Year Ago, 6-Month Moving Average

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000


15

The Housing Market is Slowing

Data through August 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and U.S. Census.

Virginia: Single-Family Building Permits6-Month Moving Average

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


The Housing Market is Slowing

Data through August 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and U.S. Census.

Virginia: Single-Family Building Permits6-Month Moving Average

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


16

Housing Permit Drop Varies Greatly By Region

Data through August 2006.Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics and U.S. Census

Richmond: Single-Family Building Permits6-Month Moving Average

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


Housing Permits in NVA are Back to 1996 Levels

Data through August 2006.

Northern Virginia: Single-Family Permits6-Month Moving Average

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800


17

A Sign that Investors are Pulling out of the Market in the Washington MSA

Washington Metro Area Home Sales vs. Inventory

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06

Homes Sales

Active Inventory

Why? Home Price Appreciation

GWR Home Price Index and Affordability

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Recession

Appreciation

Appreciation

U.S.

GWR

18

…Impacts AffordabilityGWR Home Price Index and Affordability

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Recession

U.S.

Affordability

Appreciation

AffordabilityAppreciation

GWR

U.S.

GWR

Affordability - % of households that can afford a median-priced home.

Home Price Appreciation Has Reached Double Digit Levels

Richmond Home Price Index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Recession

Appreciation

Appreciation

U.S.

Richmond

19

Affordability is Still HighRichmond Home Price Index and Affordability

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Recession

U.S.

Affordability

Appreciation

AffordabilityAppreciation

Richmond

U.S.

Richmond

Home Affordability in Virginia’s Metropolitan Areas, 2006 Qtr 2

Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics

20

Housing BubblesHouse Price Appreciation

Percent Change From A Year Ago

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Home Price Index

Washington DC MSA

Los Angeles/Long Beach MSA

San Francisco/Oakland MSA

367-28.4-173437.2610.2New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner366-18.5-21.494115.4Gulfport-Biloxi365-2.9-1.239.941.1Danville363-2.5-1.559.360.8Jackson363-2.5-3.2127130.2Cedar Rapids2990059.759.7Harrisonburg1931.42.3161.7159.4Roanoke1841.59.2624.2615Richmond1651.713778.2765.2Hampton Roads1282.21.25755.8Winchester1022.573.43,007.12,933.7Washington-Arlington-Alexandria

732.93106.4103.4Lynchburg732.9271.769.7Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford593.12.996.393.4Charlottesville56.8463.259.2Prescott47.213.4200.8187.4McAllen-Edinburg-Mission37.44.261.156.9Morgantown27.73.751.948.2Yuma19.34.451.747.3St. George

Ranking Virginia’s Metropolitan Areas in the Nation, Employment Growth Rate

Number of Jobs in Thousands

RankPercentNumberJul-06Jul-05

21

Significant Variation in Employment By County/City

Data through 1st Quarter 2006.

Nonfarm Employment: Northern Virginia vs. the State

Change From a Year Ago, In Thousands

Since 1993848,400 Net Gain in VA451,300 Net Gain in NVA


-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200


Northern Virginia

Rest of State

22

Nonfarm Employment: Nonmetropolitan Areas vs. the State

Since 1993848,400 Net Gain in Metro VA13,700 Net LOSS in Rural Areas


-100

-50

0

50

100

150


Rural

Metropolitan Areas

Employment Growth in the Manufacturing Sector


Employment Growth - Manufacturing SectorPercentage Change From a Year Ago

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Apr-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05

Virginia

United States

23

West Piedmont Workforce Area (Danville, Henry, Martinsville, Patrick, and Pittsylvania) Skewed

Toward Mfg

24

Reasons for Longer-Term Shifts in Growth

• Infrastructure– Highways– Internet– Quality of life

• Education

Overview: The Knowledge Economy

• Broad trends – muscles vs. knowledge• Individuals clearly benefit from more

education• Does a more educated population

contribute to faster economic growth with Virginia?

25

Cheap Labor in Foreign Countries Drove Trends

Source: Department of Labor.

Percentage of Employment in Goods vs. Service, United States

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Service Producing

Goods Producing

Cheap Labor in Foreign Countries is Driving Trends

21.33

18.83

9.167.27

5.83 5.41

2.57 2.38

0

5

10

15

20

25

UNITEDSTATES

JAPAN KOREA SINGAPORE HONGKONG

TAIWAN BRAZIL MEXICO

Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

Hourly Compensation for Production Workers in US Dollars, 2002

26

Cheap Labor in Foreign Countries and and Better Education inBetter Education in US Drove Trends

4.0 4.95.9 6.4

9.2 9.4

4.1 5.1

6.77.2

6.07.1

5.4 6.1

11.7 12.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Brazil China Hong Kong,China

India Mexico Singapore South Africa

United States

Source: World Bank Database.

Average Years of Schooling of Adults, Selected Countries

19902000

27

Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Well Established

• More education is associated with higher wages

• More education is associated with a lower unemployment rate

396Some high-school, no

diploma8.8

554High-school graduate5.5

622Some college, no degree5.2

672Associate degree4

900Bachelor's degree3.3

1,064Master's degree2.9

1,307Professional degree1.7

$1,349 Doctoral degree2.1

(Dollars)(Percent)

Median weekly

earnings in 2003

Education attained

Unemploy-ment rate in

2003

28

Mean Real Earnings of Workers 18 Years and Over by Education Attainment

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Less than High School

High School Graduate

Some College/Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Advanced Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population SurveyRecessions are shaded.

Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Clear

Mean Real Earnings of Workers 18 Years and Over by Education Attainment

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Less than High School

High School Graduate

Some College/Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Advanced Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population SurveyRecessions are shaded.

Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Clear

29

Our International Competitive Advantage is Education

4.0 4.95.9 6.4

9.2 9.4

4.1 5.1

6.77.2

6.07.1

5.4 6.1

11.7 12.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Brazil China Hong Kong,China

India Mexico Singapore South Africa

United States

Source: World Bank Database.

Average Years of Schooling of Adults, Selected Countries

19902000

U.S. 8th Grade Math Scores Falling Behind Some Less Developed Countries

604 585 582 579502 487 467

392

275

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Singapore ChineseTaipei

HongKong

Japan UnitedStates

Intern’lAver. (38Countries)

Thailand Chile SouthAfrica

Source: International Association for the Evaluation of Education Attainment.

8th Grade Math Scores, 1999 Are We About to Lose the Are We About to Lose the Edge that UnderpinnedEdge that UnderpinnedOur Growth?Our Growth?

30

Distribution of Combined Mathematics Scores of 15-Year Old Students, by Country 2003

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

BrazilTunisiaIndonesia

ThailandUruguaySerbiaRussian Federation

LatviaMacao-China

LiechtensteinHong Kong-ChinaPartner Countries

MexicoTurkeyGreece

ItalyPortugal

United StatesSpain

HungaryPoland

LuxembourgNorway

Slovak RepublicIreland

GermanyAustriaSwedenFrance

DenmarkIceland

Czech RepublicNew ZealandAustralia

SwitzerlandBelgiumCanadaJapan

NetherlandsKoreaFinland

OECD CountriesOECD Average

10-25 25-Mean Mean +/- standard errorMean-75 75-90Percentiles of Performance

Distribution of Combined Mathematics Scores of 15-Year Old Students, by Country 2003

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

BrazilTunisiaIndonesia

ThailandUruguaySerbiaRussian Federation

LatviaMacao-China

LiechtensteinHong Kong-ChinaPartner Countries

MexicoTurkeyGreece

ItalyPortugal

United StatesSpain

HungaryPoland

LuxembourgNorway

Slovak RepublicIreland

GermanyAustriaSwedenFrance

DenmarkIceland

Czech RepublicNew ZealandAustralia

SwitzerlandBelgiumCanadaJapan

NetherlandsKoreaFinland

OECD CountriesOECD Average

10-25 25-Mean Mean +/- standard errorMean-75 75-90Percentiles of Performance

31

+92%9.44.9India

+258%13.63.8China

+15%15.713.7U.S.Change20001990

Students Enrolled in Postsecondary(in millions)

International Competition

UNESCO, 2003

New Participants in the World Economy (Supply Side)

• China, India and Russia = 3 billion people• 10% highly educated = 300 million people• USA = 300 million people• 25% highly educated = 75 million• Competition for jobs = 375 million people• USA students/adults will face greater

competition in the future than anytime in history

Craig Barrett, INTEL CEO 2004

32

Portion of Workforce Needing High-Skilled Jobs Has Increased

Unskilled

60%

Skilled

20%

Professional

20%

Skilled

65%

Unskilled

15%

Professional

20%

1950 1997National Summit on 21st Century Skills for 21st Century Jobs

At the Same Time, Educational Attainment in the U.S. is Rising

Source: Katharine Bradbury, “Education and Wages in the 1980s and 1990s: Are All the GroupsMoving Together?”Boston Fed.

30%20%

U.S. Full Time Workers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00

Less Than High School 10%

High School or Some College

20% College Degree or More 30%

33

Importance of Education—Regions Grow Fasterand Income is Higher

Education Attainment and HH Income

Relationship Between Education Attainment and COLA Houshold Income(Correlation Coefficient 0.47)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

% Adults With Bachelor Degree

Med

ian

Ho

use

ho

ld I

nco

me (

Co

st o

f Liv

ing

A

dju

sted

)

Source: 2000 Census and CEA

Falls Church

Arlington

Fairfax

AlexandraCovington

Dickenson

Trend Line

Loudon

Albemarle

34

These Students Will Be Underpinning Growth in 4 to 8 Years . . .

Source: Virginia Dept. of Education.

% of Students Passing 8th Grade Mathematics by School Division, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

HIGHLAND CHESTERFIELD ROCKINGHAM FAUQUIER POWHATAN SMYTH WISE KING GEORGE

CHARLES CITY

Top 10

These Students Will Be Underpinning Growth in 4 to 8 Years . . .

Source: Virginia Dept. of Education.

% of Students Passing 8th Grade Mathematics by School Division, 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

HIGHLAND CHESTERFIELD ROCKINGHAM FAUQUIER POWHATAN SMYTH WISE KING GEORGE

CHARLES CITY

Bottom 10PORTSMOUTH CITYTAZEWELLSUSSEXLEEBUCKINGHAMSCOTTCHARLOTTESVILLE COVINGTON CITYBUCHANANPETERSBURG CITY

60.156.554.954.454.050.647.143.340.840.5

35

Higher Skills Needed for Fast Growing Services than Declining Mfg Industries

2.9

2.7

2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2Skill Measure of Occupations in Industries

Average Serv. Skill

Average Mfg Skill

Occupational Skill of Fastest Growing and Declining Industries, Virginia, 2002-2012

Source: JobsEQ™

2.62.7

2.62.6

2.52.3

2.72.6

2.82.9

2.7


Mining Beverage/Tobacco Prod. Mfg.

Textile MillsTextile Prod. Mills

Apparel Mfg.Leather/Allied Prod. Mfg.

Paper Mfg.Petro./Coal Prod. Mfg.

Chemical Mfg.Computer/Electronic Prod. Mfg.

Average Mfg Skill


Job Loss


Source: JobsEQ™

2.9Average Serv. Skill 2.9

BiggestJob Loss

36

3.13.0

2.93.1

3.03.1

2.92.9

2.72.6

2.9

2.62.7

2.62.6

2.52.3

2.72.6

2.82.9

2.7


Internet Serv. /Data Process. Serv.Profess., Scientific, and Tech. Serv.

Admin./Support Serv.Ed. Serv.

Ambulatory Health Care Serv.Hospitals

Nursing/Res. Care FacilitiesSocial Assist.

Amusement, Gambling/Recreation Ind.Food Serv./Drinking Places

Average Serv. Skill






Average Mfg Skill


Job Gain

Job Loss


Source: JobsEQ™

3.13.0

2.93.1

3.03.1

2.92.9

2.72.6

2.9

2.62.7

2.62.6

2.52.3

2.72.6

2.82.9

2.7


Internet Serv. /Data Process. Serv.Profess., Scientific, and Tech. Serv.

Admin./Support Serv.Ed. Serv.

Ambulatory Health Care Serv.Hospitals

Nursing/Res. Care FacilitiesSocial Assist.

Amusement, Gambling/Recreation Ind.Food Serv./Drinking Places

Average Serv. Skill






Average Mfg Skill


BiggestJob Gain

BiggestJob Loss


Source: JobsEQ™

37

Take Aways• National growth is shifting gears…Fed is at the

end of interest rate increases • The economy’s potential is about 3-3.5% real

GDP– Faster productivity growth leads to higher wages and

the potential for the economy to grow faster• Weaker dollar giving manufacturers some relief

from low foreign wages• Productivity and ingenuity need to offset low

labor costs abroad• People not industries are a region’s and firm’s

most valuable resource . . .education is important

Documents

Virginia Government Finance Officers’ Associationvgfoa.asp.radford.edu/2006 Fall Conference/chumra... · 2007-01-09 · US Data through August 2006. Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics