2014
1.1
1.1.1
1.2.5
2.10
2.1.11
2.2.13
2.3.14
3.17
3.1.17
3.2.22
4.24
4.1.24
4.2.27
4.2.1. 28
4.2.2.31
4.2.3.32
4.3.34
4.3.134
4.3.2.35
5.38
38
6.41
ii
i
1.
CEPA, Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement200377
1.1.
2003SARS2000200120030.56%1.66%3.06%20015.1% 20037.9%
11 1997 2012 (2011 )
:
12 1997 2012
:
1849
11
2010 ()
2003728
:
11.0
2003820
:
15.0
200391
:
26.7
200411
:
24.3
200451
: (21)
34.7
200471
: ()
:
:
46.5
200531
:
25.5
2005111
:
:
:
30.5
200651
:
:
:
:
:
:
29.0
200771
:
:
:
:
:
38.1
: 2010
13
:
20094 ()201298342.5%[footnoteRef:1]200912201012 [1: ,20141]
1.2.
2003 20072009199720135,430201211.7%103.5
14 1997 2013
:
20002003
2013767.4%2000201329%75%
15 2000/
16 2013/
:(20012014)
2013, 5,43047.1%2,56620128%3.48,12320123.9%
12 2013
2013
2012
54,298,000
+11.7%
-
25,661,000
+8.0%
-
28,637,000
+15.3%
3.4
-0.1
8,123
+3.9%
27.5
+18.7%
:
201348.8%16.34.7%1,262565.4%34.6%
17 2013 16
:
* (16.3%), (4.7%), (4.1%), (1.8%), (1.3%), (1.2%) (1.3%)
2.
2.1.
/
1999(World Tourism OrganizationWTO) (Tourism Satellite Account,
TSA)[footnoteRef:2]TSAWTO[footnoteRef:3]TSATSA [2: Designing the
Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) Methodological Framework, World
Tourism Organization] [3: 2011]
21
:
2.2.
[footnoteRef:4] [4: 2011]
22 2009 2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
51,000 (3.22%)
74,600 (4.29%)
86,200 (4.53%)
94,600 (4.70%)
105,900 (5.05%)
40,300 (2.55%)
59,200 (3.41%)
72,100 (3.79%)
79,100 (3.93%)
89,000 (4.24%)
13,300
16,900
22,700
26,400
32,000
*
9,800
16,100
23,200
25,000
25,600
4,500
6,300
7,900
9,100
10,000
8,000
13,800
10,500
10,000
11,700
4,700
6,100
7,700
8,600
9,700
:
*
:
2.5%4.2%
(2014)[footnoteRef:5]20122721.4%5192.6% [5: Economic Benefits of
the Independent Visitor Scheme for Hong Kong: How Large are They??
(2014), Yun-Wing Sung.]
2.3.
201347%112,60021%48,80017%39,800
21 2013
:
2013269,70088.2%237,80020002.73%20136.38%200087,700
2011237,800
22 2000 2013
:
200320057.8%[footnoteRef:6]201020095[footnoteRef:7](2014)20128.7
[6: , 20079, ] [7: , ]
3.
3.1.
4-1
31
/3-1
31
SMCSMBPMCSMCSMB
Gooroochurn and Sinclair (2003, 2005) Gago and Labandeira (2006)
3-2
32
S1 Ct (C + t)
3.2.
(Composite CPI)2009-2010
33 1999 2012 ()
:
200320102011380%[footnoteRef:8]2011
$730,0002012$2,300,000210%[footnoteRef:9] [8:
(2011)http://www.joneslanglasalle.com.hk/HongKong/ZH-HK/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?ItemID=23715]
[9: 2012/11/151]
3-32004
4.
4.1.
:
41
AD = C + I + G + (X M)
4-1
41
200980%92.2%
41 2009
2009
8.3%
0.2%
7.9%
2.7%
77.8%
92.2%
2.8%
2.9%
3.3%
2.1%
: ( )
2013363[footnoteRef:10] [10: Travel & Tourism, Economic
Impact 2013, Hong Kong, World Travel and Tourism Council ()]
20041802013280 () 201218452[footnoteRef:11] [11: Travel &
Tourism Economic Impact 2013 Hong Kong, World Travel and Tourism
Council ()]
201247.5%
4.2.
2013122013
4.2.1.
2005
201285%91%95%89%85%
42 2012
()
85%
2,457
91%
1,228
95%
781
89%
1,489
85%
510
: 2013
4-220002012200385%200978%20082009 20094
42 2000 2012
:
2003120%138% 134%
43 20002012
:
2007-082008-092009
4.2.2.
201273%()55%
201340%20121,200 3
2012[footnoteRef:12]201323% [12:
http://www.mtr-shatincentrallink.hk/en/project-details/benefit.html
, retrieved on 20 Jan 2014.]
4.2.3.
[footnoteRef:13] (20133) [13: 2013/12/15 2014/2/24 +1.6]
43 20139
9,186
3.4%
14,362
4.9%
10,135
1.8%
5,840
2.7%
8,778
2.5%
: 20139
[footnoteRef:14] [14: 20139]
4.3.
/
4.3.1 .
201212%2013
4920052006127,300 2005 137,400 2006144,70020054.1%20064.2%
20131648.8%201330.8%
4.3.2.
44 -
2017
SRASAD2SRASAD3
45
5.
1
2013
2
[footnoteRef:15] [15: 2014
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201401/08/P201401080613.htm]
1
2-12-2200120020.56%1.66%5.10%7.31%20037.92%
51 2000
SRASAD1AD2e1e2
20132013
52 2013
2
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31
