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Shuyang Ma1, Jianchao Li1, Jiahua Cheng2, Yongjun Tian1* 1 Laboratory of Fishery Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
2 East China Sea Fishery Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai, China
*E-mail: [email protected]
Session 1: Environmental control of spatio-temporal changes in population size, distribution and migration of small
pelagic fish in the ecosystem context
Variations in the catches of small pelagic fishes from China seas and its responses to
climatic regime shifts
Outline
I. SPF in the over-exploited China Seas
II. Catch variation trends and step changes in SPF
III. Climatic regime shifts in China Seas and the responses of SPF
IV. Summary
China seas as marginal seas, are largely influenced by West Boundary Current, and have significant environmental changes which will have important effects on SPF.
Components Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea Current system (except South China Sea) Warm: YSWC, TWC, KS Cold: YSCC, KCC, ZFCC
(Zheng et al, 2006)
YSCC: Yellow Sea Coastal Current YSWC: Yellow Sea Warm Current KCC: Korea Coastal Current TSWC: Tsushima Warm Current ZFCC: Zhejiang-Fujian Coastal Current TWC: Taiwan Warm Current KS: Kuroshio
China seas and currents
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Chin
a ca
tch
(mill
ion
t)
Glo
bal c
atch
(mill
ion
t)
Variation trends of Global and Chinese Marine catch
Global
China
Chinese catch under over-exploitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Fish
ing
boat
s (te
n th
ousa
nd in
d)
CPU
E (t
/boa
t·yea
r)
Variation trends of CPUE and fishing boats in China
CPUE
Fishing boats
Data from Global Capture Production 1950-2014, FAO
Global: Increasing trend since 1950,
remain stable after 1990 18.2% was from China in 2014
China: Increasing rapidly since 1980 to
2000, then remained stable CPUE reduced sharply in the
1950s and kept low-level after 1980. Under the over-exploitation,
how about the SPF?
Data from Global Capture Production 1950-2014, FAO
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Catc
h/10
4 t
Catch of marine fish and SPF in China Marine fish SPF
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SPF
cat
ch/1
04 t
SPF catch of global and China Global China
1996/97
SPF 39%
SPF 26%
SPF catch — From global to China
China marine fishes
Cods, hakes, haddocks
Tunas, bonitos billfishes
Coastal fishes
Demersal fishes
Small pelagic fishes
Others
Global marine fishes
Cods, hakes, haddocks
Tunas, bonitos billfishes
Coastal fishes
Demersal fishes
Small pelagic fishes
Others
SPF 39%
SPF 26%
FAO, 2014
Focus
Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus
Chub mackerel Scomber japonicas
Horse mackerel Trachurus japonicus
Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus
Japanese scad Decapterus maruadsi
Pacific herring Clupea pallasi
Clarify the trends of SPF in China seas Identify the responses of SPF to climate change
Catch Chinese Fishery Statistics 1950-2014 FAO Global Capture Production 1950-2014 Tsushima Stock Assessment Reports 2015
Sea Surface Temperature Grid data with resolution of 1°×1°
Climatic indices Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Southern Oscillation (SOI) Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) North Pacific Index (NPI) Asian Monsoon Index (MOI)
Regime Shift Detection Cumulative Sum Get the variation trends and step changes of data
Principal Component Analysis Calculate the pc1 of SST in summer and winter then get the changing pattern
Correlation Analysis Explore the relationships between catch and environmental indicators
Data and analyses
Variation trends in SPF catch
0
20
40
60
80Chub mackerel
0
5
10
15
20Pacific herring
0
40
80
120
160Japanese anchovy
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Japanese sardine 0
20
40
60
80Japanese scad
0
10
20
30
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Horse mackerel
Catc
h/10
4 t Ca
tch/
104 t
Catc
h/10
4 t
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Anom
alie
s/10
4 t Japanese sardine
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cusu
m/1
04 t
Horse mackerel
Anomalies
Mean
Cusum
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Cusu
m/1
04 t
Japanese scad
Step changes in SPF catch
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Anom
alie
s/10
4 t Chub mackerel
1995/96 1976/77
2007/08
1983/84
-15-10-5051015202530
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Cusu
m/1
04 t
Pacific herring
1983/84
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
Anom
alie
s/10
4 t Japanese anchovy
2000/01
1996/97
2006/07
1996/97
2007/08
2001/02
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Cusu
m
Win
ter P
DO A
nom
alie
s Winter PDO
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Cusu
m
Annu
al S
OI A
nom
alie
s Annual SOI
-14-12-10-8-6-4-2024
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Cusu
m
Win
ter A
O A
nom
alie
s Winter AO
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Cusu
m
Win
ter N
PI A
nom
alie
s Winter NPI
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10-8-6-4-202468
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cusu
m
Win
ter M
OI A
nom
alie
s Winter MOI 1977: PDO
1989: PDO
2015: PDO
1989: AO
1977: NPI 2016: NPI
1987: MOI
2005: MOI
-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
RSI
Regime Shift Index (RSI)
1976/77 1988/89 1976/77 1988/89
Variation pattern in Climatic indices
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Yellow Sea
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
PC1
Scor
es
Bohai Sea -4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Bohai Sea
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2PC
1 Sc
ores
Yellow Sea
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PC1
Scor
es
East China Sea -2.5
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
East China Sea
1995/96 1986/87
Summer
China
Variation pattern in SST In China Seas Winter
1977: PDO
1989: PDO
2015: PDO
1989: AO
1977: NPI 2016: NPI
1987: MOI
2005: MOI
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
RSI
Climatic indices
[类别名称]: 1
1996: 1
[类别名称]: 1
[类别名称]: 2
[类别名称]: 2
[类别名称]: 3
[类别名称]: 3, 4
2002: 5
[类别名称]: 6 -1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
2
RSI
Catch, China
1: Chub mackerel 2: Pacific herring 3: Japanese anchovy 4: Japanese sardine 5: Japanese scad 6: Horse mackerel
2007: 1
1988: 4
1983: 5 1994: 3, 5
1961: 6 1978: 6
1987: 6 1997: 1, 6
2011: 6
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
RSI
SST pc1s
Numbers 1-6 represent SST pc1 of different seas.
Catch step changes 1976/77 1996/97 2007/08
Climatic regime shifts 1976/77 1988/89 1995/96 (step change in SST)
Response of SPF to climate change
Chinese SPF catch responded well to the climatic regime shifts in 1976/77 and 1995/96, but no response to the shift in 1988/89.
Variation in SPF catches are driven by climatic regime shifts, particularly the thermal regime shifts.
Table 1 Correlation analysis between climatic indices, SST pc1s and SPF catch anomalies in China.
Asterisks denote significance at the following alpha levels: * 0.05>p>0.01, ** 0.01>p
Climate indices and SST pc1s Chub mackerel
Pacific herring
Japanese anchovy
Japanese sardine
Japanese scad
Horse mackerel
PDO 0.45** -0.3* 0.42* SOI AO -0.45* NPI -0.3* -0.43* MOI
Bohai Summer PC1 0.56* Bohai Winter PC1
Yellow Sea Summer PC1 0.44* Yellow Sea Winter PC1 0.3*
East China Sea Summer PC1 0.57** 0.64** 0.48** 0.5* East China Sea Winter PC1 0.62** 0.61** 0.47**
Impact of environmental indices on SPF
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Catc
h/10
4t
Japanese scad
Cold Winter
Cold Summer
Warm Winter
Cold Summer
Warm Winter
Warm Summer
1986/87
1995/96
Responses of SPF to SST variation pattern
Rising trend with time lag between winter and summer.
Catch trends responded well to the SST variation pattern.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Catc
h/10
4t
Japanese anchovy 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Catc
h/10
4t
Chub mackerel
Increasing Decreasing Collapse
Responses of Tsushima catch to the changing SST
China
Japan
Summary
I. SPF catch in China showed decadal variations with step changes around 1976/77, 1996/97 and 2007/08.
II. SPF catch in China responded well to the climatic regime shifts, particularly the thermal regime shifts, occurred in 1976/77 and 1995/96, but no significant response to the shift in 1988/89.
III. SST variation pattern with regime shift occurred in winter in 1986/87 and in summer in 1995/96 had important effects on SPF catch.
Future works
Cold Winter
Cold Summer
Warm Winter
Cold Summer
Warm Winter
Warm Summer
1986/87
1995/96
Based on data collection such as life history traits by species, to verify the effects of the SST variation pattern on SPF.