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Paul D. SpudisLunar and Planetary Institute

NASA Alumni League4 August, 2014

The Value of the Moonand the Critical Importance of Cislunar Space

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What Kind of Space Program?

Space program originated and grew inresponse to geopolitical pressures

We subsequently found it useful forother purposes (technicalinnovation, national drama)

Despite the documented practical valueof space, we are still wedded to PRstunts as goals

Space must be relevant to nationalscientific, economic, and securityneeds

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What’s Our Objective in Space?Contrary to conventional wisdom, it should

not simply be “Humans to Mars”That is just one of many different

objectivesApollo-like program and architecture is

likely to suffer the same type ofending

The ability to go anywhere, for anylength of time, to do whatever job wecan imagineFreedom of movement throughout the

Solar SystemAs long as we are limited to only what

we can launch from Earth, we willremain mass- and power-limited inspace than therefore, capability-limited

Analogy should be to seafaring, notaviation

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So What’s the Problem Then?

Spaceflight is difficultThe Tyranny of the Rocket EquationReaching LEO with empty fuel tanks

Spaceflight is expensiveAccelerating tons of mass to Mach 25 and

lifting it hundreds of kmPrecision machining, complex avionics,

difficult-to-work materialsRequires numerous man-hours of work

Spaceflight is barely possibleIf radius of Earth were 50% larger, the energy

in chemical bonds would not be sufficientto reach orbit

The benefits of spaceflight are notintuitively obviousHuman destiny, species survival, “Because

it’s there..” are not typical justifications formassive amounts of federal spending

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Our DilemmaHumans in space for more than 50

years, but template has notchangedLaunch, use, discardNo permanent space-based

infrastructureConsumables (propellant, life

support) must be lifted out ofthe deepest gravity well in theinner Solar System

An alternative modelSpace-centric, not Earth-centricMaterials and energy supplied

from local resourcesContinuously expanding sphere of

human reachWide variety of activities, not just

science or exploration

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Or to put it another way….

If our ultimate goal in space is togo anywhere, anytime with asmuch capability as we need…

And our spacecraft are mass- andpower-limited and thus,capability-limited…

And they will remain so as long aswe are restricted to what canbe lifted out of Earth’s gravitywell…

And this restriction negativelyimpacts scientific capabilities,economic health, and nationalsecurity…

Then to extend reach and capability, we must learn touse what we find in space to create new space faring

capabilities

Cislunar Space: The Zone Between Earth and MoonEarth, LEO, HEO, GTO, GEO, 5 Libration points, LLO, Moon Surface

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Why is Cislunar Space Important?

All of our space assets are incislunar:LEO – wide variety of

commercial, government,NGO platforms and assets.Half-way to anywhere inspace

MEO – GPS constellationGEO – comsats, weather,

remote-sensing, nationalreconnaissance

HEO – space surveillance,strategic assets

L-points – scientific platforms,telescopes, staging areas

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What are Our National Interests in Space?

Economic – communications,weather, mapping, resourceprospecting, navigation

Scientific – Earth science,space weather and physics,astronomy, spaceenvironment

Security – national technicalmeans (surveillance),strategic and tactical militarysupport, situationalawareness, asteroid impactand collision mitigation

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Historical Analogy for Cislunar Space:Alfred Thayer Mahan and The Influence of Sea Power on History (1890)

Mahan studied history of the rise andfall of nations

Nations who controlled the seacontrolled their destiny

The converse was also truePower projection is morally neutral; it

can be for the benefit of and tothe detriment of nations

Power projection by “benevolent”nations such as UK and USAguaranteed freedom ofcommerce for the world

Conversely, abrogation of thisresponsibility would leave worldopen to tyranny

The Great White Fleet, 1907

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What Other Entities are or will be Present inCislunar Space?

Nationals – other countries withspace programs (e.g., Majors:Russia, China, India, Japan)other players: North Korea, Iran,Israel)

Internationals – cooperativeefforts of multiple nations (e.g.,ESA)

NGO – non-governmentalconsortia and coalitions (mostlynon-flight at this point)

Corporate – markets andindustries with specific spaceapplication needs andobjectives

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What is Space Presence and Control?Presence is the ability to be at a remote

location and conduct useful tasksthere; it may not require physicalpresence by people (roboticpresence can substitute in somecases)

Control is the ability to protect your ownspace assets and deny the use of anadversary’s assets

The latter implies the former, thus, bothare desirable

Accepting this principle is NOT“weaponization” of space; assetscan be disabled or denied withoutweapons

You are space powerful or space vulnerable

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China’s Space ProgramAccomplishments and Aspirations

China has demonstrated significantspaceflight capability

Robotic: orbit, rendezvous, proximityoperations, station keeping and longloiter, travel at will throughout cislunarspace

Human: orbit, rendezvous, docking,assembly, EVA; possess capabilitiesUSA had in mid- to late 1960s

Lunar: travel to Moon, insertion intoprecision orbit, long-life in lunar orbit(inherently unstable), departure fromMoon, dwell at L-point, solar orbit andasteroid encounter

Significance: China has demonstratedmastery of cislunar flight, longlifetimes, orbital maneuvering andtransit, proximity ops, situationalawareness and long-term planning

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Is China a Threat to American Interests in Space?

PotentiallyMost of what China is doing is not

inherently threatening or bellicose, butall accomplishments to date are “dualuse”

Existing programs are secretive; programis run by PLA (Chinese military)

American absence is the issue; powervacuum is always filled and if we arenot present, it may be filled by entitiesnot favorably oriented toward ourvalues and beliefs

Long-lived Chinese spacecraft could“dwell” in cislunar, available toneutralize any space asset with veryshort notice

China has proven their determination topursue their program systematicallyand relentlessly

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How Should We Respond to Others’Accomplishments in Cislunar Space?

Be there: a strong American presence incislunar space

Make cislunar space the direction andcritical operational theater for Americanspace efforts in the coming twodecades

Develop a modular, incremental spaceflightsystem in cislunar, with both robotic andhuman components

Goal is the permanent, “at will” presence ofmachines and people throughout all ofcislunar space

Robotically operated, human-tended lunaroutpost is immediate goal, with aim ofdeveloping the technology andprocesses to use the material andenergy resources of the Moon to createnew spaceflight capabilities

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Other Considerations

Those who play make the rules– if we abandon cislunarspace, there is no assurancethat a market-based systemwill develop there

This goal and implementationlays technical groundworkand physical infrastructure togo to the planets, so it is NOTa “distraction” from Mars orany other space objectives

Both science and economicbenefits will follow, improvinglife on Earth

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Space faring: Changing the RulesCurrent template

Custom-built, self-contained, mission-specific spacecraft

Launch on expendable vehiclesOperate for set lifetimeAbandon after useRepeat, repeat, repeat

New templateIncremental, extensible building blocksExtract material and energy resources of

space to use in spaceLaunch only what cannot be fabricated or

built in space (smart mass)Build and operate flexible, modular,

extensible in-space systemsMaintain, expand and use indefinitely

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The Value of Space to Modern LifeModern industrial civilization depends

critically on numerous satellite assetsin high orbits above LEO:GPS and navigationGlobal communicationsRemote sensing, weatherSurveillance and national security

assetsWe cannot access those satellites to

maintain them or to build large,distributed space systems

If we could access those satellites withhumans and robots, new capabilitiesfrom space assets could be created,ensuring ourselves a better quality oflife, a bigger and stronger economy,and a more secure world

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Lessons from Shuttle and Station ProgramsLarge, distributed systems too big

to be launched from Earth canbe assembled in space

Humans and machines workingtogether can assemble, serviceand maintain complex spacesystems

Applying this paradigm to trans-LEO (cislunar) space requiresdevelopment of a transportationsystem that is affordable,extensible, and reusable

Developing the resources of the Moon enables thecreation of such a system (if you can reach the lunar

surface, you can access any other point in cislunar space)

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Why the Moon?Close

Three days away and easilyaccessible (as near as GEO)

Transport system to Moon can alsoaccess GEO, cislunar, Earth-SunLagrangians, and some asteroids

InterestingMoon contains a record of planetary

history, evolution and processesunavailable for study on Earth orelsewhere

UsefulRetire risk to future planetary missions

by re-acquiring experience andtesting with lunar missions

Development of lunar resources haspotential to be a majoradvancement in space logisticscapability

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The Value of the MoonProximity

The Moon is in Earth orbit and thusconstantly accessible from Earth;multiple launch windows alwaysavailable

Ease of accessΔv LEO to lunar surface ~6 km/s (to

martian surface ~10 km/s)Transit time: 3-5 daysTransit using WSB: weeks

Multiple options for mission abort andrapid Earth return

Round-trip light time permits near-realtime control of machines fromoperators on Earth

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The Value of the MoonUtility

Material resourcesBulk regolith (shielding, ceramics,

aggregate for construction)Metals (iron, aluminum, titanium)Water (chemically unbound)

Energy resourcesAreas near poles in quasi-

permanent sunlight, close towater deposits

Environmental resourcesThermal cold traps (~30-40 K)Hard vacuum (10-12 torr)Fractional gravity (0.17 Earth)

Operational resourcesPlanetary environment to learn

optimal exploration strategiesTechnology test-bed for planetary

surface systems

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Goals and PrinciplesExtend human reach beyond LEO by

creating a permanent, extensiblespace faring infrastructure

Use the material and energy resourcesof the Moon to create this system

Lunar return by small, incremental,cumulative steps

Proximity of Moon permits progress priorto human arrival via roboticteleoperations

Innovative space systems: fuel depots,robotics, ISRU, reusable spacecraft,staging nodes

Fit within reasonable budget (existingfraction of NASA budget for humanexploration, ~ $7 B/year)

Schedule is free variable; constant,steady progress but no deadlines

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Architectural ImplicationsUse robotic flights to acquire strategic

knowledge and emplace assetsrobotic missions are not just for

scienceCommonality of hardware, systems,

procedures between robotic andhuman flight elementstest human flight components on

robotic missionsLocate “high grade” lunar resources

and build human habitats nearbyconcentrated resources (e.g., polar

ice) are easiest to use; focus onthem first

Build up infrastructure in a singlelocation to create capability rapidlyForget sorties: pick the site and build

up an outpost

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MissionCreate a permanent human-tended lunar outpost

to harvest water and make propellantApproach

Small, incremental, cumulative stepsRobotic assets first to document resources,

demonstrate production methodsTeleoperation of robotic mining equipment from

Earth. Emplace and build outpost assetsremotely

Use existing LV, HLV if it becomes availableCost and Schedule

Fits under existing run-out budget (< $7B/year, 16years, aggregate cost $88 B, real-year dollars)

Resource processing outpost operational halfwaythrough program (after 18 missions); endstage after 30 missions: 150 mT water/yearproduction

BenefitsPermanent space transportation systemRoutine access to all cislunar space by people

and machinesExperience living and working on another world

An Affordable Lunar Return Architecture

P.D. Spudis and A.R. Lavoie (2011) Using the Resources of theMoon to Create a Permanent Cislunar Space Faring System. Space2011 Conf, Long Beach CA, AIAA 2011-7185, 24 pp.

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Initial Steps

1. Communication/navigation satellitesPolar areas out of constant Earth LOS;

need comm, positional knowledge2. Polar prospecting rovers

Study and characterize water deposits,other substances, environment

3. ISRU demoHeat icy regolith to extract water; purify

and store as ice in cold traps4. Digger/Hauler rovers

Excavate regolith, transport feedstock tofixed stations for water extraction

5. Water tankersPurify and store extracted water

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Next Steps

6. Electrolysis unitsCrack water into hydrogen and oxygen;

liquefy into cryogens7. Supporting equipment

Robotic Landers - medium (500 kgpayload), heavy (2 mT payload)

Power plants - extendable solar arrays,steerable on vertical axis to track sun atpoles

Cryo storage - store LOX, LH2 (use coldtraps, 25 K)

Material Fabricators - Process regolith forrapid prototype products and parts

8. Space-based assetsLEO depot - fuel lunar departure stagesLLO depot - staging node for reusable

cargo and human landers

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HumanLander (HL) Zone

Blast Berm

Blast Berm

Beacons

Beacons

HL SupportCart

RL Support Cart

Communication Terminal

Habitation Zone

Robotic Lander(RL) Zone

Pressurized Transfer Vehicle

Unpressurized ISRU Lab

Living Cluster

Regolith Waste

Outpost Layout Concept

PropellantProcessing Zone

Water Ice Deposit

Robot miners

Solar array panels

Mining Zone

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Program SummaryCreate a permanent, cislunar space

transportation system based upon theharvest and use of lunar water

Most infrastructure is emplaced andoperated robotically; people comewhen facilities and budgets are ready

Small incremental steps that build uponeach other and work together

Progress continually made, regardless ofbudgetary issues in any given year

Incremental approach greatly facilitatesboth commercial and internationalparticipation

Cislunar system created here is a“transcontinental railroad” in space,opening up the space frontier

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Ways and Means

NASA budget flat for 40 yearsNo evidence that future budgets will be any betterThus, we must do with what we have

Given this, is Mars 2035 possible?

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Value Returned for Money SpentCreate an extensible, reusable cislunar

space transportation system basedaround the use of the resources of theMoon

Such a space transportation system has theinherent capability to take us to theplanets

Obtain a permanent foothold on anotherplanetary body (the Moon) for the firsttime in human history

Develop the means to build large, high-power distributed space systems toserve a variety of national andinternational economic, scientific andsecurity objectives

Become a true space-faring species;learning to use off-planet resources isthe first step of settlement

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The Moon: An Enabling AssetA testing and training ground for

future human missionsDevelop and test technology,

equipment and flight elements onMoon and in cislunar space

Rehearse mission operations, simulateconditions, practice contingencyprocedures

Learn how to best explore planetarysurfaces with an optimum mix ofhumans and robots

A logistics depot for continuingspaceflight capabilityWater, the most useful substance for

spaceflight, available in quantityNear-continuous power from sunlight

near lunar polesPresence in Earth orbit assures routine,

continuous and easy access fromEarth and variety of locations incislunar space

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What Kind of Space Program?Two Visions

“A spectacular series of space ‘firsts’”(Augustine report, 2009)Launch, use and discardEverything comes up from EarthOne-off, PR “stunt” missionsAccomplish the feat and cancel the programFlags and footprints foreverCostly and subject to political and fiscal

winds of changeBecome a true space faring species

Reusable, maintainable, extensible spacesystems

Incremental, cumulative, steady progressionoutward

Fit under any budget envelope; return valuefor money spent

Government develops and demostechnology; commerce follows

Create a permanent and expanding spacetransportation infrastructure

Less glitter, more substance

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Space – A New Rationale“If God wanted man to become a space-faring species, He would have given

man a Moon.” – Krafft Ehricke

Explore to broaden ourknowledge and imaginationbase

Prosper by using the unlimitedenergy and materials of spaceto increase our wealth

Secure our nation and theworld by using the assets ofspace to protect the planet andourselves