Valuation of the health and climate-change benefits of ... · bene ts of healthy diets, Background paper for SOFI 2020 Springmann et al, 2016, Analysis and valuation of the health

Valuation of the health and climate-changebenefits of healthy diets

Marco SpringmannOxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food

Nuffield Department of Population HealthUniversity of Oxford

Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits

Health impacts of the food system

Current diets are not healthy:

Dietary risks are leading risk factors globally and in mostregions (GBD, 2013):


Health impacts of the food system

Global prevalence of overweight increased over a third, andobesity rates doubled over last 30 years (Stevens et al, 2012).


Environmental impacts of the food system

The current food system is environmentally unsustainable:

major driver of climate change (25% of GHG emissions,Vermeulen et al, 2012);

major driver of land-use change and biodiversity loss (40% ofthe Earth’s surface, Ramankutty et al, 2008; Houghton et al,2012);

major user of freshwater resources (70% of global freshwaterwithdrawals (WWAP, 2012);

major polluter of terrestrial and aquatic systems throughfertilizer runoff (Vitousek et al, 1997) (→ dead zones incoastal oceans, Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008)


Environmental impacts of the food system

Key environmental limits could be exceeded without ambitiousfood-system changes:

Springmann et al, Nature 2018


Economic costs of current food systems

Cost factors

Unhealthy diets:

healthcare-related costslost workloss of quality of life

Unsustainable diets:

climate-change costsenvironmental degradationloss of ecosystems


Valuation of costs of dietary change


Research objective

This study:

Valuation of the health and climate-change benefits of dietarychanges towards healthier and more sustainable diets

Methods:1 Diet analysis:

Standardised set of healthy and sustainable diet scenariosadapted from EAT-Lancet Commission (new)

2 Health analysis:

Comparative risk assessment of changes in mortality fromchanges in dietary and weight-related risk factors (updated);

3 Environmental analysis:

Life-cycle analysis of food consumption based on a recentmeta-analysis (updated);

4 Economic valuation:

Social cost of carbon (updated), cost-of-illness estimates


Diet scenarios


Health analysis (for 2030)

14 million avoidable deaths in 2030 (22% of all deathsamongst adults)


Healthcare costs

USD 1.3 trillion in 2030 (7% of global healthcare expenditure)


Healthcare costs

Regional distribution in line with level of health-care spendingand population levels


Healthcare costs

Large savings for healthier and more sustainable diets


Emissions analysis (for 2030)

8.1 GtCO2-eq in 2030 (13% of total emissions)


Climate-change costs

USD 1.7 trillion in 2030; possible reduction of 50-76%


Comparison to cost of diets

Costs of healthcare and climate change represent 22-28% ofwholesale costs of diets in 2030


Comparison to cost of diets

Including health and climate-change costs reduces relativecosts of healthy and sustainable diets


Discussion

Policy implications:

Full costing of foods and diets can provide financial incentivefor dietary change towards healthy and sustainable diets

Commodity-specific health and environmental taxes can helpaccount for external costs (see Springmann et al, NatureClimate Change 2017, Plos One 2018)

Additional policy measures might be needed to supportuptake of healthy and sustainable diets:

Reform of national dietary guidelines (see Springmann et al,The BMJ 2020)School and workplace approaches, procurement, regulation ofthe food sectorAgricultural incentives, change in subsidies (Freund andSpringmann, in preparation)


Bibliography

Springmann, 2020, Valuation of the health and climate-changebenefits of healthy diets, Background paper for SOFI 2020

Springmann et al, 2016, Analysis and valuation of the healthand environmental co-benefits of dietary change, PNAS.

Springmann et al, 2017, Mitigation potential and globalhealth impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities,Nature Climate Change.

Springmann et al, 2018, Health-motivated taxes on red andprocessed meat: a modelling study on optimal tax levels andassociated health impacts, Plos One.

Springmann et al, 2020, The healthiness and sustainability ofnational dietary guidelines, The BMJ.


Thank you

Contact, comments and suggestions:

[email protected]


Supplementary Slides


Dietary guidelines

Health and environmental analysis of


Operationalizing planetary boundaries

Relationship of planetary boundaries and policy goals (SDGs):


Dietary guidelines

Number of global health and environmental targets attained:


Dietary guidelines

Target attainment by region:


Dietary guidelines

Health implications:

Springmann et al, The BMJ 2020


Dietary guidelines

Implications:

Dietary guidelines inform national policies (healthprogrammes, procurement, etc).

Many dietary guidelines are not sustainable when adoptedglobally (and could also be healthier).

Reason is lack of limits for animal products.

Updating guidelines in light of sustainability concerns isessential first step for progressive food-policy reforms.


Fiscal incentives

Adjust food prices for climate damages(Springmann et al, 2017, Nature Climate Change):


Design of emissions taxes on foods

Model scenarios:

TAX : GHG taxes on all food commodities

TAXadj : Tax exemptions for health-critical food groups in devcountries (fruits&veg and staples)

TAXani : GHG taxes only on animal products (meat, dairy,eggs)

TAXrem: GHG taxes only on red meat (beef, lamb, pork)

TAXbef : GHG taxes only on beef

Income-compensated variants (r )

Variants in which half of tax revenues are used to subsidizefruits&veg (s)

⇒ 15 different tax scenarios


Optimal tax scenario

Health-sensitive taxing scheme


Optimal tax scenarios

Health-maximising tax scenario for each region:

Optimization across all 15 tax scenarios:


Fiscal incentives

Adjust food prices for health costs(Springmann et al, 2018, PLOS One):


Health taxes on red meat

Prices changes needed to pay for health care-related costs inequilibrium (red meat):


Health taxes on processed meat

Prices changes needed to pay for health care-related costs inequilibrium (processed meat):


Health taxes on processed meat

Reductions in mortality attributed to red and processed meat:


Cost of diets

Changes in cost of diets with full pricing and by diet scenario:

(Springmann, SOFI 2020 Background Paper)


Food prices

Implications:

Consumption decisions are influenced, in part, by food prices.

Current prices do not reflect the full health and environmentalcosts of diets and foods.

Pricing in food-system externalities (e.g. via taxes) can helpconsumers make healthier and more environmentally friendlychoices.

Tax revenues (and avoided healthcare costs and climatedamages) can be used to compensate low-income households.


Agricultural incentives

Align agricultural subsidies with public health objectives tosupport food-system transformation:


Agricultural subsidies

Agricultural support measures (USD million) in 2011:

Source: GTAP, OECD’s producer support estimates net of tariffs



Change in production in the EU (%):



Change in consumption of fruits and veg (%):

(Freund and Springmann, in preparation)



Change in economic welfare:

(Freund and Springmann, in preparation)


Documents

Valuation of the health and climate-change benefits of ... · bene ts of healthy diets, Background paper for SOFI 2020 Springmann et al, 2016, Analysis and valuation of the health