V-SHAPED REBOUND BECKONS A REVITALISED MARKET …€¦ · 2013 land market review V-SHAPED REBOUND BECKONS A REVITALISED MARKET Yangtze River Delta Region Land Market Review . Introduction

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2013 land market review

V-SHAPED REBOUND BECKONS A REVITALISED MARKET Yangtze River Delta Region Land Market Review

Introduction Land grant fees shrank with weak land supply and demand

A V-shaped rebound in the second half As one of the core elements of the real

estate market, land has always been the most important resource for the sustainable development and fast growth of business for developers. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the most active economic regions in China due to its accelerating economic growth and improving infrastructure, attracting a number of domestic and international real estate funds for investment. Therefore, understanding the land market trends in the YRD region has become crucial for developers and investors.

After experiencing a recession in the first half of 2012, the land market in YRD region started to recover in the second half. A V-shaped rebound can be found not only in supply area and transaction area, but also in land price. Particularly, the total land supply bounced back to the peak in 2011. In terms of policy, government restrictions on home purchases and land supply showed no signs of relaxation in 2012, imposing negative impact on China’s housing market. Facing the volatility of house sales and tightening land policies, how have land prices been influenced by the supply and demand situation? What is our forecast? How have the government and developers reacted in the changing market? Based on the market performance in 2012, Knight Frank analyses the characteristics and provides our assessment with regard to the land market of YRD region. The Yangtze River Delta region referred to in this report involves 16 major cities namely Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Ningbo, Zhenjiang, Nantong, Thaizhou (Jiangsu Province), Taizhou (Zhejiang Province), Yangzhou, Zhoushan, Wenzhou, Changzhou, Jiaxing and Huzhou but excludes their subordinate counties.

According to Knight Frank research, in 2012 the supply and transaction volume of land in 16 cities in the YRD (excluding affordable housing and industrial land) dropped 13.9% and 19.4% respectively year on year, among which the supply and sales volume of commercial land declined 16.3 % and 25.0% year on year respectively.

As a consequence, the total land grant fees dropped by 15.6% in 2012 year on year. Particularly in the first half of 2012, the land grant fees of the 16 cities decreased significantly to RMB78.7 billion, down 51.2% and 59.2% compared with the first half and the second half of 2011 respectively.

Starting from the third quarter of 2012, housing sales slowly picked up as developers lowered their prices. Furthermore, local governments were eager to launch more land to the market due to limited income and improved capacity for financing, encouraging more developers and funds to enter the land market. In the second half of 2012, the transacted residential and commercial land areas increased 124.7% and 55.6% respectively compared with the first half of 2012. The YRD land market witnessed a number of high-priced transactions in the second half of 2012 in terms of total consideration and accommodation value (AV).

The recovery in the second half of 2012 also helped form a V-shaped rebound in terms of supply area and transaction volume since the second half of 2011. Both decreased sharply in the first half of 2012 and then rebounded to relatively high levels in the second half of 2012. Total land supply was comparable to that in the second half of 2011.

Principal cities with strong economic strength such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo witnessed quicker recovery. Developers were inclined to invest in principal cities with stable demand and lower investment risk. In Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Suzhou, new land supply and transacted area in the second half of 2012 both doubled compared to the first half.

Yangtze River Delta region land market review KnightFrank.com.cn

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What drove the land market recovery in the second half of 2012? Increasing land supply The plummet of land supply by 60% in the first half of 2012 contributed to a sharp increase in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the development of new towns, urbanisation and the expansion of traditional city centres also created abundant land supply. An example involved a number of new towns along the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway such as Xidong New Town and Suzhou HSR New Town. Financial pressure on developers eased along with sales recovery Many large-scale developers recorded strong performance in terms of sales value in 2012.

More chances to finance eased financial pressure on developers In addition to sales recovery, more capital entered the real estate market. As listed below, the financing of developers increased significantly since the third quarter of 2012. The total financing value achieved by major developers reached RMB30 billion in the fourth quarter.

Developers to expand their land bank Due to the recovery of housing sales and declining land stock in the second half of 2012, developers were eager to acquire more land to maintain sustainable development and future pipeline for projects. For instance, Vanke and Poly achieved total transaction volumes of 12.92 million sq m and 9.01 million sq m respectively in 2012, while newly acquired land reached 14.46 million sq m and 14.0 million sq m respectively, ensuring sustainable real estate development in the coming three years for the developers.

Land prices still remained at a low level Though the land market picked up in the second half of 2012, the average land value in 2012 remained at one of the lowest levels over the past three years compared with the peak value in 2010.

DeveloperSales value and

year-on-year change in 2012

DeveloperSales value and

year-on-year change in 2012

Vanke (SZ000002) 141.2 +16.2% Evergrande (3333.HK) 92.3 +14.8%Poly (SH600048) 101.7 +38.9% Greentown (3900.HK) 54.6 +55.0%Gemdale (SH600383) 34.2 +10.4% CRLand (1109.HK) 52.2 +45.0%CMPD (SZ000024) 36.4 +73.0% Longfor (0960.HK) 40.1 +4.9%China Overseas (0688.HK)

89.6 +30.0% Shimao(0813.HK) 46.1 +50.0%

Source : Knight Frank Research, Published Developers' Announcements. Unit: RMB billion

Developer Financing Financing resultsGemdale (SH600383)

Equity

Buying shares of FRASERS PPT (00535.HK)

CMPD (SZ000024)

Buying shares of TONIC INDUSTRIES (00978.HK)

Vanke (SZ000002 )

Buying shares of Winsor Properties (01036.HK)

CIFI (00884.HK) IPO in Hong Kong HKD1.5 billionFuture Land (01030.HK) HKD2.1 billionChina Overseas (0688.HK)

Bond / billUSD1.0 billion

Gemdale (SH600383) USD350 millionSOHO China (00410.HK) USD1.0 billionLongfor (0960.HK) Allotment of shares HKD3.089 billion

Source : Knight Frank Research, Published Developers' Announcements

Chart 1: Land grant fees and year on year change in the YRD region (2012)

City 1H 2012 2H 2012 2012 y-o-y change Shanghai 11.78 62.54 74.29 -19.4% Hangzhou 8.51 45.89 54.4 20.4% Suzhou 3.18 28.61 31.78 -35.5% Nanjing 13.16 22.66 35.83 3.8% Wuxi 2.89 10.41 13.30 -41.1% Zhenjiang 2.79 2.53 5.32 -55.4% Changzhou 21.08 12.97 34.05 -2.8% Taizhou 1.53 1.73 3.26 -27.9% Thaizhou 2.34 2.78 5.12 -18.2% Yangzhou 3.85 7.36 11.21 -17.7% Zhoushan 1.5 0.64 2.14 -41.4% Jiaxing 1.1 1.93 3.03 -62.8% Ningbo 3.14 8.22 11.36 50.1% Nantong 1.13 4.84 5.97 -23.5% Huzhou 0.79 1.5 2.29 -45.7% Wenzhou 0.02 6.28 6.3 -25.0%

Source : Knight Frank Research, Government Land and Resource Bureau. Unit: RMB billion

Chart 2: Land supply, demand and accommodation value in the YRD region (2010-2012)

Source : Knight Frank Research, Government Land and Resource Bureau

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

- 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2010 2011 2012

RMB per sq mMillions sq m

Supply area (LHS) Transacted area (LHS) Accommodation value (RHS)

0 0

Millions sq m

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

RMB per sq m

City facts in the YRD region (2012)


KnightFrank.com.cnYangtze River Delta region land market review

3 4

Yangzhou

Nanjing

Nantong

ChangzhouWuxi

Suzhou

Hangzhou Ningbo

Taizhou

Shanghai

4.5GDP 295

8,600

2,100

% 25-30%

YANGZHOU

7.6GDP 408

7,800

1,500

% 25-30%

NANTONG

13.0GDP 1,072

12,000

3,400

% 30-35%

SUZHOU

23.0GDP 2,010

22,500

7,100

% 35-45%

SHANGHAI

7.6GDP 652

14,000

8,300

% 30-40%

NINGBO

6.0GDP 293

9,500

2,600

% 30-40%

TAIZHOU

8.7GDP 780

20,000

8,300

% 30-40%

HANGZHOU

6.6GDP 688

8,100

2,000

% 25-35%

WUXI

4.6GDP 358

6,700

1,800

% 35-40%

CHANGZHOU

8.1GDP 615

13,000

4,900

% 30-35%

NANJING

Permanent population (million)

GDP in 2012 (RMB billion)

Residential house price (RMB/sq m)

Residential land AV (RMB/sq m)

Ratio of land AV to residential price

GDP

%

Top 10 most expensive land transactions in the YRD region (2012)

Ranking CityTotal value (RMB billion)

LO LocationLA Land area (sq m)PR Plot ratioAV Accommodation value

(RMB /sq m)US UsageBY Buyer

1 SHANGHAI

5.68LO Haimen Rd

55,HongkouLA 40,577PR 6.0AV 23,330US Retail, officeBY Franshion

2 NANJING

5.62LO Xiaguan

RiverfrontLA 364,215PR 2.0AV 7,754US Retail,

residentialBY MCC real estate

3 HANGZHOU

2.35LO Olympic Centre,

BinjiangLA 77,324PR 3.2AV 9,504US Retail,

residentialBY Longfor

4 SUZHOU

2.32LO Gusu DistrictLA 86,018PR 3.0AV 8,990US ResidentialBY Franshion

5 WUXI

2.3LO Binhu DistrictLA 434,460PR 2.0AV 2,646US Retail, officeBY Wuxi Jianshe

6 CHANGZHOU

2.26LO Tianning DistrictLA 176,900PR 2.0AV 6,375US RetailBY Changzhou

Jinling Investment Company

7 NINGBO

1.99LO East of

Yongjiang RiverLA 97,456PR 2.5AV 8,310US Retail,

residentialBY Yinyi Real

Estate

8 WENZHOU

0.86LO Wenzhou

Riverfront ProjectLA 36,489PR 3.5AV 6,695US RetailBY Wenzhou Timber

Group

9 ZHOUSHAN

0.75LO Lincheng New

TownLA 99,498PR 1.8AV 4,170US ResidentialBY Huatong Real

Estate

10 THAIZHOU

0.69LO Zhoushanhe

StreetLA 183,872PR 2.8AV 1,316US Retail,

residentialBY Greenland

Group


Thaizhou

NanjingChangzhou

Wuxi

Suzhou

Hangzhou

Ningbo

Wenzhou

Zhoushan

Shanghai


5 6

Land supply: Down then up but annual total still fell

In 2012, the total supply of residential and commercial land in the YRD region declined by 14.0% year on year to approximately 49.56 million sq m, the third consecutive year with an annual decrease in land supply.

Because of the slowdown in the residential sales market, the total residential land supply in the YRD was only 10.48 million sq m in the first half of 2012, a decrease of 53% compared with the second half of 2011. As residential sales volume picked up gradually in the second half of 2012, the residential land supply of the 16 cities increased 94%. In particular, major cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Suzhou recorded significant growth rates reaching over 200%. In the commercial land market, though commercial property investment moved upward, commercial land supply did not follow the trend. The total supply of commercial land in the YRD was 18.76 million sq m in 2012, a decline of 16.0% compared with the previous year. Only four cities, Suzhou, Wuxi, Taizhou and Wenzhou, saw land supply increases due to rapid urbanisation progress and new town developments (eg. Suzhou High-speed Railway New Town, Wuxi Binhu Taihu New Town as well as Wenzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone). Notably, with robust commercial land supply in the Wenzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, the total commercial land supply in Wenzhou reached 934,000 sq m during the second half of 2012, doubling its total supply in the past two years.


Chart 3: Residential land supply in the YRD region (2010-2012)

Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang

million sq m30

25

20

15

10

5

01H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2010 2011 2012

Land demand: cautious until year-end when transactions soared With declining supply levels and a wait-and-see attitude adopted by developers, land transaction volume in the YRD region in the first half of 2012 decreased 48.9% compared with the second half of 2011. The residential land sector led the fall by 51.7%, with Nantong and Wenzhou witnessing no transactions.

In the commercial land sector, the total transacted area in the YRD region in the first half of 2012 reached 6.16 million sq m with a decrease of 44.7% compared with the previous half-year and down 37.5% compared with a year ago. Comparatively, the commercial land sector recorded stronger performance than residential. We believe this was because cooling measures had limited impact on commercial properties and the rapid expansion of city districts and the development of new towns activated the commercial land market in major cities. In Shanghai, Hangzhou and Changzhou, based on the transacted area of commercial land over 2012, the total developable gross floor area (GFA) of new commercial properties reached over 2.0 million sq m.

Within the recovery of the land market in the second half of 2012, it is particularly important to note the recovery of the residential land sector, which had been strongly affected by housing purchase restrictions. The total transacted area of residential land in the YRD region reached 18.09 million sqm, an increase of 124.7% compared to the previous half-year, 69.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate for commercial land. The residential land sector witnessed a number of large plot transactions in first and second-tier cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou.



Chart 4: Commercial land supply in the YRD region (2010-2012)


16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

million sq m

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2010 2011 2012

Chart 5: Residential land transacted area in the YRD region (2010-2012)

25

20

15

10

5

0

million sq m


1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2010 2011 2012

Chart 6: Commercial land transacted area in the YRD region (2010-2012)


14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

million sq m


1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2010 2011 2012


7 8

Land price: most land sold for reserved prices but stronger competition at end 2012

In 2012, 59.3% of land was transacted at reserved prices, 4.5 percentage points higher than that in 2011. Only 18.7% of the plots were transacted at a premium (excess of transacted price over reserved price) of more than 10%, while this figure was 40.7% in 2011. Transactions at reserved prices were focused in Wujin District of Changzhou, where real estate development expanded rapidly and the commercial land sector of Suzhou.

Among all the land plots sold at a premium, half were for residential use. The majority of the land transacted at a premium involved small plots of commercial land and residential land in new towns, which were given priority in development and enjoyed comprehensive planning and infrastructure. In the second half of 2012, although the proportion of transactions at reserved prices was similar to the previous half year, the proportion of transactions achieving premium rates of 10-100% increased sharply. This demonstrated that developers showed more enthusiasm in the increasingly desirable land market, but their bidding remained cautious. Any shift in investment interest was to land with promising investment returns, thus land with stable income in prime locations attracted more attention.

The land market in 2012 witnessed a decrease in accommodation value in most cities compared with 2011. Given developers’ cautious attitude towards

land acquisition and shrinking land revenue, the government, keen to sell more land, cut reserved prices. But on a half-yearly basis, sales prices in almost all cities in the YRD region rebounded

in the second half of 2012 due to pick up in developers’ demand and the concentration of land transactions in prime locations. In the fourth quarter, Poly Property and Greentown Group acquired two residential plots within the Inner-Ring Road in Yangpu and Tangzhen Town in Pudong of Shanghai respectively. The accommodation values of both land achieved over RMB15,000 per sq m.

Hangzhou, with most land transactions in prime areas, and Ningbo, with extremely limited supply, have had the highest residential land prices in the YRD region. Their residential land accommodation values reached RMB7,000-9,000 per sq m. In Shanghai, most transacted land was located in suburban areas, with limited land supply in urban areas. The average accommodation value of residential land in suburban areas was only RMB5,000-7,000 per sq m, whilst core location residential values ranged from RMB12,000 to RMB15,000 per sq m. As there are limited development projects in Thaizhou, the residential accommodation value remained at RMB1,000 per sq m since 2010. Currently, Thaizhou is one of the cities with lowest residential accommodation value in the YRD region.


Chart 7: Proportion of land transacted at a premium in the YRD region (2011-2012)

Transactions at reserved price

Transaction at <10% Premiun

Transaction at 10-50% Premiun

Transaction at 50-100% Premiun

Transaction at >=100% Premiun

59.8% 40.2%25.7%

10.5%

2.6% 1.3%

2012 1H

2012 2H

2011

58.8%

54.8%

41.2%

45.2%

20.0%

16.0%

4.1% 1.1%

4.5%

22.2%

9.0% 9.5%

Government and Enterprises

Government: land grant fees plummeted with prime land supporting the market With limited land supply and low transaction prices at reserved levels, land grant fees in the YRD region declined to RMB302.2 billion in 2012, down 14.8% and 35.0% respectively compared with 2011 and 2010. Notably, in the first half of 2012, the total land grant fee only reached RMB78.8 billion, equivalent to 26.0% of the 2012 total. For instance, the total land grant fee in Shanghai reached RMB11.8 billion in the first half, while the figure increased to RMB62.5 billion in the second half of 2012. With a concentration of land transactions in prime locations in the second half of 2012, the land grant fees in Hangzhou, Nanjing and Ningbo witnessed year-on-year increases over 2012. All the most expensive land in the above three cities in 2012 was transacted in the fourth quarter.

As chart 10 below demonstrates, land grant fees rebounded every half a year, in accordance with real estate policies and the sales volume of commodity properties( "commodity properties" refer to all types of real estate developments which are permitted by the government to launch legally on the property sales and rental market) at the times. In 2010, benefiting from the strong sales of commodity properties, the land grant fees amounted to 41.6% of the total land grant fees in the past three years. However, due to home purchase restrictions, this ratio dropped to 31.7% in 2011 and only 7.0% in the first half of 2012. The ratio rebounded to 19.7% in the second half of 2012, above the three-year average, indicating the recovery of the land market. Enterprises: fierce competition, large developers secured land in prime locations Companies with a government background, especially those state- owned enterprises belonging to local

counties, played major roles in the primary land market. Starting from the second half of 2012, the land market has slowly been warming up with developers acquiring more land. The YRD region remained a major area for land acquisition by listed developers and major corporates expanding across the country.

Due to ample funds available and competitive capabilities, large developers still dominated the primary land market. They showed their interest not only in first and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing but also in third-tier cities such as Changzhou and Nantong. In 2012, large developers contributed 75% of the top 20 transactions in terms of total value, such as China Overseas who acquired four land plots. In mid-November, China Overseas acquired three interconnected residential plots in Sanpu Area in Jianggan District, Hangzhou with a total consideration of RMB5.588 billion or an accommodation value of RMB19,300 per sq m, 49% higher than the reserved price. In December, China Overseas acquired another residential land plot in Suzhou at a total value of RMB1.99 billion.

ForecastAs actual land supply in the first half of 2012 was below the forecasted supply plan, the government was urged to launch more land, resulting in a significant increase of supply in the second half of 2012. Developers’ interest in acquiring land started to return in June, evidenced by a number of sites sold at premium prices. Buoyant outlook for both the land and property market will have positive impacts on the land market and it is anticipated that land transaction volumes and prices will maintain on an upward trend in the first half of 2013.

Developers believe that it is a good time to invest in the land market and they will continue to acquire land in 2013. Government-owned enterprises and large listed companies are expected to acquire more land with a broader geographical distribution across YRD region. It is expected that small to medium-sized developers will lose their market share due to weak competitiveness. Hence, for those developers who wish to expand in second and third-tier cities, 2013 might be a good time; but for those who focus on first-tier cities, fierce competition is inevitable due to limited land supply. However, as retail property supply remains large in some second and third-tier cities and online shopping platforms continue to grow rapidly, developers will be more cautious in selecting commercial land.

Chart 8: Residential accommodation value trend in the YRD (2010-2012)


RMB/sq m

Shanghai Hangzhou Suzhou Nanjing Wuxi Changzhou Nantong Zhenjiang Yangzhou

Chart 9: Commercial accommodation value trend in the YRD (2010-2012)

Chart 10: The proportion of half-year land grant fees to the total land grant fees in the past three years by city (2010-2012)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Shanghai

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Suzhou

Changzhou

Wuxi

Ningbo

Yangzhou

Wenzhou

Nantong

Zhenjiang

Jiaxing

Taizhou-S

Taizhou-Z

Huzhou

Zhoushan

Source: Government Land and Resource Bureau, Knight Frank Research

20101H 20102H 20111H 20112H 20121H 20122H

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Shanghai

Hangzhou

Nanjing

Suzhou

Changzhou

Wuxi

Ningbo

Yangzhou

Wenzhou

Nantong

Zhenjiang

Jiaxing

Taizhou-S

Taizhou-Z

Huzhou

Zhoushan

20101H 20102H 20111H 20112H 20121H 20122H


Shanghai Hangzhou Suzhou Nanjing Wuxi Changzhou Nantong Zhenjiang Yangzhou

RMB/sq m

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研究报告

二零一三年土地市场回顾

V 形反弹，重现活力长三角土地市场回顾

前言土地供求疲软，土地财政缩水供求 V形反弹，下半年市场复苏

土地作为房地产市场的核心要素之一，

一直都是开发企业得以可持续开发和发

展壮大最重要的资源。长三角区域是中

国最活跃的经济圈之一，经济和基础设

施提升极快，吸引众多国内外房地产开

发资金涌入。所以，准确把握长三角区

域土地市场走势对企业持续发展具有重

要意义。

纵观二零一二年长三角区域的土地市

场，在经历了上半年的市场严冬之后，

土地市场在下半年开始复苏，无论土地

供应面积、成交面积还是土地价格，都

呈现 V型反弹。其中，土地供应更接近

二零一一年的高峰时段。而政策方面，

政府对于商品住宅的限购政策和土地调

控政策未有放松迹象，仍然对于中国住

宅销售产生负面影响。在商品房销售市

场动荡和政策收紧的背景下，长三角区

域土地市场供求变动对土地价格产生了

怎样的影响？对于土地市场的未来展望

怎样？政策和开发企业在土地市场上的

表现有什么变化？为此，基于二零一二

年土地市场行情，莱坊分析了长三角区

域各城市的土地市场特征，并对土地市

场作出评估。

本报告所指长三角区域包括以下十六个

城市：上海、杭州、南京、无锡、苏州、

宁波，镇江、南通、台州、泰州、扬州、

舟山、温州、常州、嘉兴、湖州，但不

包括其下辖县。

莱坊研究及咨询部统计显示，二零一二

年，长三角十六个城市土地（不含保障

性住房和工业用地，下同）供应量和成

交量同比分别下降百分之 13.9 和百分

之 19.4。其中商业地产用地供应和成交

面积同比分别下降百分之 16.3 和百分之

25.0。

受此影响，二零一二年长三角土地出让

金同比下滑了百分之 15.6。上半年表

现尤其低迷，土地出让金仅实现人民币

787 亿元，较二零一一年上半年和下半

年分别减少百分之 51.2 和百分之 59.2。

自二零一二年第三季度开始，随着开发

商降价促销逐步体现效果，房屋销售回

暖，再加上政府财政收入锐减、开发商

融资重启，政府推出更多土地，更多开

发商和资金进入土地市场，土地市场明

显复苏。二零一二年下半年，长三角区

域住宅用地和商办用地成交环比分别增

长百分之 124.7 和百分之 55.6。长三角

区域录得多宗总价和单价新高地块成

交。

下半年开始的土地复苏也形成了二零

一一年下半年以来长三角区域土地市场

的 V 形结构（如图表 2），土地供应面

积、成交面积以及土地价格在经历二零

一二年上半年的短暂急剧下滑后，在二

零一二年下半年重返高位，土地供应已

接近二零一一年下半年。

二零一二年长三角经济实力强大的重点

城市如上海、南京、苏州、杭州和宁波

的土地市场回暖速度更快，显示出开发

企业在资金投放策略上更倾向于市场需

求稳定、投资风险相对较低的重点城市。

二零一二年下半年，上海、南京、杭州

和苏州的新增土地供应和成交面积均实

现了翻番。

长三角土地市场回顾 KnightFrank.com.cn

1 2

图表 1：长三角地区土地出让金总额及同比变幅（2012）

城市 2012 年上半年 2012 年下半年 2012 年全年按年变幅上海 117.8 625.4 742.9 -19.4% 杭州 85.1 458.9 544.0 20.4% 苏州 31.8 286.1 317.8 -35.5% 南京 131.6 226.6 358.3 3.8% 无锡 28.9 104.1 133.0 -41.1% 镇江 27.9 25.3 53.2 -55.4% 常州 210.8 129.7 340.5 -2.8% 台州 15.3 17.3 32.6 -27.9% 泰州 23.4 27.8 51.2 -18.2% 扬州 38.5 73.6 112.1 -17.7% 舟山 15.0 6.4 21.4 -41.4% 嘉兴 11.0 19.3 30.3 -62.8% 宁波 31.4 82.2 113.6 50.1% 南通 11.3 48.4 59.7 -23.5% 湖州 7.9 15.0 22.9 -45.7% 温州 0.2 62.8 63.0 -25.0%

数据来源：莱坊研究部 /各城市国土资源局。单位：人民币亿元

土地市场回暖动力何在？

土地供应增长

二零一二年上半年，各地土地供应环比降幅超过百分之 60，促成了下半年尤其是第

四季度各地大面积供应土地。此外，新城建设、城市化和城市外扩，如京沪高铁沿线

多个新城（西东新城、苏州高铁新城）的出现也形成了大量新增土地供应。

销售回暖，开发企业资金压力缓解

大型房地产开发企业在二零一二年仍获得了较好的销售量和销售额。

融资通道拓宽，企业资金更为充裕

在销售回暖同时，更多资金得以进入房地产业。如下表所示，自第三季度开始，内

地房地产企业的融资规模和力度不断扩大，仅第四季度总募集资金就超过人民币 300

亿元。

开发企业扩充土地储备

二零一二年下半年销售回暖，土地储备逐步减少，开发企业势必有新购土地的需求，

以保证未来的可持续发展及未来重要项目建设。比如万科和保利地产二零一二年销售

面积分别为 1,295 万平方米和 901 万平方米，同期新增土地储备则分别为 1,446 万平

方米和 1,400 万平方米，以此保证未来三年房地产开发能得以持续。

土地价格仍处于低位

虽然在二零一二年下半年土地价格有所抬头，但二零一三年楼板价水平仍处于近三年

低位，距离二零一零年的价格高值仍有上涨空间。

开发企业2012 年销售额及同比变幅

开发企业2012 年销售额及同比变幅

万科 (SZ000002) 1,412 +16.2% 恒大 (3333.HK) 923 +14.8%保利 (SH600048) 1,017 +38.9% 绿城 (3900.HK) 546 +55.0%金地 (SH600383) 342 +10.4% 华润 (1109.HK) 522 +45.0%招商 (SZ000024) 364 +73.0% 龙湖 (0960.HK) 401 +4.9%中海 (0688.HK) 896 +30.0% 世茂 (0813.HK) 461 +50.0%

开发企业融资方式募集资金结果金地地产 (SH600383) 购买上市公司股权控股星狮地产 (00535.HK)招商地产 (SZ000024) 控股东力控股 (00978.HK)万科地产 (SZ000002) 控股南联地产 (01036.HK)旭辉控股 (00884.HK) 香港上市港币约 15 亿元

新城发展 (01030.HK) 港币约 21 亿元

中海地产 (0688.HK) 债券 /票据美元 10 亿元

金地地产 (SH600383) 美元 3.5 亿元

SOHO 中国 (00410.HK) 美元 10 亿元

龙湖地产 (0960.HK) 配股港币 30.89 亿元

图表 2：长三角地区土地供求面积和楼板价走势 (2010-2012)

数据来源：莱坊研究部 /各城市国土资源局

2010 2011 2012

0 0

数据来源：莱坊研究部 /各房地产开发商公告。单位：人民币亿元

数据来源：莱坊研究部 /各房地产开发商公告

长三角区域二零一二年市场回顾


KnightFrank.com.cn长三角土地市场回顾

3 4

扬州

南京

南通

常州

无锡

苏州

杭州宁波

台州

上海

4.5GDP 295

8,600

2,100

% 25-30%

扬州

7.6GDP 408

7,800

1,500

% 25-30%

南通

13.0GDP 1,072

12,000

3,400

% 30-35%

苏州

23.0GDP 2,010

22,500

7,100

% 35-45%

上海

7.6GDP 652

14,000

8,300

% 30-40%

宁波

6.0GDP 293

9,500

2,600

% 30-40%

台州

8.7GDP 780

20,000

8,300

% 30-40%

杭州

6.6GDP 688

8,100

2,000

% 25-35%

无锡

4.6GDP 358

6,700

1,800

% 35-40%

常州

8.1GDP 615

13,000

4,900

% 30-35%

南京

常住人口（百万人）

2012 年 GDP（人民币十亿元）

住宅均价（人民币 /平方米）

宅地楼板价（人民币 /平方米）

地价房价比（%）

GDP

%

长三角区域二零一二年地王排名

排名城市

总价（人民币亿元）LO 位置

LA 土地面积（平方米）

PR 容积率

AV 楼板价（人民币/平方米）

US 用途

BY 开发商

1 上海

56.8LO 虹口区海

门路 55 号

LA 40,577PR 6.0AV 23,330US 商办

BY 方兴地产

2 南京

56.2LO 下关滨江

LA 364,215PR 2.0AV 7,754US 商住

BY 中冶置业

3 杭州

23.5LO 滨江区奥

体中心

LA 77,324PR 3.2AV 9,504US 商住

BY 龙湖

4 苏州

23.2LO 姑苏区

LA 86,018PR 3.0AV 8,990US 住宅

BY 方兴地产

5 无锡

23.0LO 滨湖区

LA 434,460PR 2.0AV 2,646US 商办

BY 无锡建设发展投资

6 常州

22.6LO 天宁区

LA 176,900PR 2.0AV 6,375US 商业

BY 常州晋陵投资建设

7 宁波

19.9LO 甬江东

LA 97,456PR 2.5AV 8,310US 商住

BY 宁波银亿

8 温州

8.6LO 温州滨江

广场项目

LA 36,489PR 3.5AV 6,695US 商业

BY 温州木材集团

9 舟山

7.5LO 临城新区

LA 99,498PR 1.8AV 4,170US 住宅

BY 华通置业有限公司

10 泰州

6.9LO 周山河街

区地块

LA 183,872PR 2.8AV 1,316US 商住

BY 绿地集团


泰州

南京常州

无锡

苏州

杭州

宁波

温州

舟山

上海


5 6

土地供应：先抑后扬，全年总量仍然下降

二零一二年，长三角区域住宅和商业土

地供应总量约 4,956 万平方米，同比减

少百分之 14，连续三年下降。

由于住宅销售不景气，二零一二年上半

年长三角区域住宅用地供应仅约 1,048

万平方米，环比跌幅高达百分之 53。

随着下半年住宅成交量逐步增加，16 个

城市商品住宅用地供应环比增长百分之

94，包括上海、南京、杭州和苏州等

城市均实现了商品住宅用地供应百分之

200 以上的增长。

商办土地方面，虽然商办物业投资呈明

显增长趋势，但商办土地的供应并未跟

上，二零一二年长三角区域供应总量为

1,876 万平方米，同比减少百分之 16。

只有苏州、无锡、台州和温州四个城市

在城市化和新城建设的带动下商办土地

供应维持增长（比如苏州高铁新城、无

锡滨湖区太湖新城以及温州经济技术开

发区等）。值得注意的是，温州在经济

技术开发区等热点地区近期大量出让商

办用地，二零一二年下半年商办用地供

应量达到 93.4 万平方米，相当于前两

年商办土地供应面积总额的两倍之多。

图表 3：长三角地区住宅用地供应面积 (2010-2012)


上海市江苏省浙江省

百万平方米30

25

20

15

10

5

0上半年下半年上半年下半年上半年下半年

2010 2011 2012

图表 4：长三角地区商办用地供应面积 (2010-2012)


16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

百万平方米

上半年下半年上半年下半年上半年下半年

2010 2011 2012


土地需求：谨慎观望，但年末进入密集购地期

受累于供应下滑和开发商的谨慎观望，

二零一二年上半年长三角区域土地成交

环比下降百分之 48.9。住宅用地表现尤

其逊色，成交量环比下滑百分之 51.7，

南通和温州住宅用地录得零成交。

商办用地方面，二零一二年上半年长三

角区域商办土地成交面积为 616 万平方

米，环比下降百分之 44.7，同比减少百

分之 37.5。相较住宅用地，商办用地成

交表现较好，一方面在于本次房地产调

控政策对商业物业影响较小，另一方面，

城市的快速扩张和大量新城的建设促进

了各城市商办用地活跃。按上海、杭州

和常州等城市二零一二年已成交商办土

地面积计算，累计可新增商办建筑面积

均超过 200 万平方米。

进入二零一二年下半年，土地市场复苏，

尤其是受限购政策影响大的住宅用地变

化更明显。长三角区域商品住宅用地成

交量环比增长百分之 124.7 到 1,809 万

平方米，增幅较商办用地高出 69.1 个百

分点。包括上海、杭州和苏州在内的一、

二线城市下半年录得多批次大体量集中

交易。

图表 5：长三角地区住宅用地成交面积 (2010-2012)


25

20

15

10

5

0

百万平方米


2010 2011 2012


图表 6：长三角地区商办用地成交面积 (2010-2012)


14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

百万平方米


2010 2011 2012



7 8

土地价格：底价成交是主流，年末竞争加剧

二零一二年，长三角区域商品房用地中

百分之 59.3 以底价成交，这一比例较

前一年高出 4.5 个百分点。二零一二年

全年溢价（“溢价”指成交价超过底价

的部分）超过百分之 10 的地块总数仅

占成交总数的百分之 18.7，而二零一一

年这一比例则高达百分之 40.7。其中常

州和苏州底价成交地块比例最高，常州

主要分布在目前商品房开发急剧膨胀的

武进区，而苏州则分布在商办地块中。

在所有溢价成交地块中，住宅用地约占

一半。高溢价地块多为小面积的商业用

地和位于新城区的住宅用地（这些新城

区是各城市未来重点发展方向，拥有良

好规划和基础设施建设）。

分时段来看，二零一二年下半年和上半

年底价成交比例相仿，但下半年溢价达

到百分之 10 至 100 的地块比例明显提

高，显示出虽然开发商对热点地块已经

投入较多关注，但竞价仍然谨慎。企业

投资更侧重投资收益安全，具有稳定收

益和优秀区位的地块更受关注。

与二零一一年比较，二零一二年多个城

市土地楼板价下滑。由于开发商拿地谨

慎和出让金下滑，政府一方面通过预告

地块吸引更多开发商关注，另一方面降

低出让底价以保证土地顺利出让。但分

时段来看，二零一二年下半年，各城市

地价普遍反弹，除开发商竞价热情提高

以外，更多位于中心城区的地块推出也

推动了土地价格的上扬。二零一二年第

四季度，保利置业和绿城集团分别在上

海杨浦区内环区域和浦东唐镇区域各购

得一宗住宅用地，成交楼板价均超过每

平方米人民币 15,000 元。

成交地块多位于市中心核心区的杭州

以及土地供应极少的宁波一向都是长

三角区域住宅用地楼板价较高的城市，

住宅用地楼板价已跃居每平方米人民

币 7,000-9,000 元。上海中心城区住宅

用地极度匮乏，成交地块多位于郊区新

城，成交楼板价多集中于每平方米人民

币 5,000-7,000 元，与中心城区每平方

米人民币 12,000-15,000元的价格相比，

竞地门槛差异巨大。泰州房地产开发项

目较少，住宅用地楼板价自 2010 年以

来维持在每平方米人民币 1,000 元的水

平上。目前，泰州市是长三角地区住宅

用地楼板价最低的城市之一。

底价成交比例溢价小于 10% 溢价 10-50%

溢价 50-100% 溢价超过 100%

图表 7：长三角地区溢价成交地块比例(2011-2012)


59.8% 40.2%25.7%

10.5%

2.6% 1.3%

2012 年上半年

2012 年下半年

2011 年

58.8%

54.8%

41.2%

45.2%

20.0%

16.0%

4.1% 1.1%

4.5%

22.2%

9.0% 9.5%

政府：土地出让金骤降，优质地块支撑市场

企业：激烈角逐，大型房企瓜分优质地块

在供应减少和底价成交盛行等因素共同

作用下，二零一二年长三角区域土地

出让金降至人民币 3,022 亿元，较二零

一一年和二零一零年分别减少百分之

14.8 和百分之 35.0。其中上半年表现

更为疲软，土地出让金总额仅录得人民

币 787 亿元，占全年成交总额的百分之

26.0。以上海为例，二零一二年上半年

上海土地成交总金额约人民币 118 亿元，

下半年则增至人民币 625 亿元。由于下

半年核心区域的优质地块频出，杭州、

南京和宁波三城市二零一二年土地出让

金总额同比增长。这些城市的年度最高

总价地王均出现在第四季度。

从图表 10 可以看出，近三年长三角区

域呈现出很明显的半年度波动一次的态

势，这一波动趋势又恰好与当时的房地

产政策倾向以及商品房（“商品房”指

经政府有关部门批准，建成后用于市场

出售或出租的所有建筑物）销售走势相

一致。二零一零年，商品房销售火热，

全年土地出让金呈上升趋势，出让金总

额达到三年土地出让金总额的百分之

41.6%，但二零一一年的限制性政策让

这一比重迅速下滑至百分之 31.7%，并

将这一趋势延续至二零一二年上半年，

出让金总额仅占近三年出让金金额的百

分之 7.0。二零一二年下半年土地出让

金占近三年总额的百分之 19.7，超过近

三年平均值，显示出市场已经复苏。

二零一二年上半年长三角区域土地市场

上，政府背景企业 ( 尤其是隶属于当地

区县的国有企业 ) 成为市场主角。进入

下半年，土地市场回暖，参与竞争的企

业明显增长。从全国范围看，长三角城

市依然是房地产上市公司、全国性扩张

的大型企业的重点关注区域。

由于资金和开发能力具有优势，大型房

地产开发企业在优质地块的争夺中占据

支配地位，其关注重点分布在上海、杭

州、南京等一二线城市，并逐步向常州、

南通等三线城市扩张。在二零一二年总

价最高的二十宗地块争夺中，此类企业

占总宗数的百分之 75，例如中海地产竞

得这二十宗地块中的 4 宗。11 月中旬，

中海地产以总价人民币 55.88 亿元获得

杭州江干区三堡三幅相连住宅用地，住

宅楼板价每平方米人民币 19,300 元，

溢价百分之 49。12 月份，中海地产又

以人民币 19.9 亿元的总价竞得苏州一宗

住宅用地。

图表 10：不同时期各城市土地出让金占该城市近三年总出让金的比重 (2010-2012)


图表 8：长三角地区住宅用地楼板价变化趋势 (2010-2012) 图表 9：长三角地区商办用地楼板价变化趋势 (2010-2012)


人民币 /平方米人民币 /平方米

市场展望

二零一二年上半年，各市土地实际供应

落后于供应计划，政府推地意愿提升，

土地供应量在下半年已经明显增长，与

此同时，开发商的购地意愿自六月份明

显回升，屡有地块以溢价成交。对土地

市场和房屋市场的良好预期将对土地市

场产生积极的效应，预计在二零一三年

上半年土地市场成交量和土地价格都有

望增长。

土地购地时机到来，二零一三年大型开

发企业购地行为将持续，在长三角地区，

国企和大型上市企业购地数量更多、分

布更广，而中小型企业的拿地竞争力继

续下降，将在已有市场内继续拓展，市

场份额继续缩小。因此，对于拓展二、

三线城市的开发商而言，二零一三年仍

将是拿地时机；而对于深耕一线城市的

企业而言，由于优质土地匮乏，竞争仍

将难以避免。但是，部分二、三线城市

商业规模已然较大，加上电子商务的兴

起，开发商对商办土地的选择应更为谨

慎。

研究报告

最近的市场研究报告

财富报告2013-英文版

大中华物业市场报告中国商铺市场观察

财富报告2013-中文版

可从www.KnightFrank.com/Research获取莱坊研

究报告

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