Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale

Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's

Jeffrey Tongue

Robert Shedd

NOAA/NWS

Overview

• Objective

• How and what data the NWS (WFO and RFC) is getting

• What we’re doing with it

• Example from Hurricane Jeanne

Objective

• Allow operational forecasters to improve:– Understanding NWP Systems.– Understanding NWP Parameterizations.– Utilization of ensemble systems.

• Demonstrate the value of local short range ensemble systems for research and operations.

NWS WFO

• Web Pages

• Data Within AWIPS

• Data within GFE

• Discussion groups and seminars.

Web Pages

• Pro’s– Availability– Easy of Access

• Con’s– Non interactive– Static Graphics– Precipitation Displays

AWIPS

• Pro’s– Interactive– Easy of Access

• Con’s– Timeliness– Consistency

AWIPS

• Timeliness– Internet speed improved– New Linux Cluster at SBU

• (ensemble data by 2-3 AM vs 8-10 AM)

• Consistency– New scripts

• Bottom Line – If you want to use research data in operations

it MUST be consistently available and timely.

Ensemble Data

• Mainly Web Based

• Mainly looking at the QPF products

River Forecast Centers

• Hydrological Ensembles for MM5 QPF

• http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/mm5_test.shtml

Currently 4 Locations

• Black River at Boonville, NY

• Smith River at Bristol, NH

• White River at West Hartford, VT

• Pemigewasset River at Woodstock, NH

Boonvillle Bristol

W. Hartford

Woodstock

Example of MM5 Ensemble driven River Stage

Case Example

• Hurricane Jeanne

• 27-29 September 04

• 4-5 Inches of Rain NYC/LI

• 2-3 Inches Lower Hudson Valley/CT

GOES IR 26/02Z – 29/20Z (6 h interval)

GFS 27/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29th 06Z

GFS 28/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29th 06Z

GFS 29/00Z Run: MSLP/1000-500 hPa Thickness Valid Sept 29th 06Z

Eta 27/18Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29th 12Z

GFS 28/00Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29th 12Z

HPC Day 1 QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29th 12Z

Eta 28/06Z Run: QPF – 24 Hours Ending Sept 29th 12Z

Rainfall

• New York City – 4.49 Inches

• Bridgehampton – 7.57 Inches

• Port Jervis – 1.44 Inches

Summary

• 40 FFW’s Issued (OKX CWA).• A Flash Flood Watch Was Issued Tuesday

Afternoon (28/18Z).• NCEP/HPC Models Greatly Underestimated the

Precipitation and the focus of the precip.• Short Range ensemble showed consistency and

the focus location of the QPF.• Models/Ensemble under-predict heavy precip

events.

Conclusions

• Use of Short Range Ensembles is critical.

• Forecasters do not “trust” experimental models/data.

• Forecasters need to continue to learn to integrate ensembles of models into the forecast process.

• GFE has “re-promoted” the model of the day concept.

Conclusions

• Timeliness and Reliability are key.

• Integration into GFE.

Some Future Plans

• Expand Ensemble Hydrographs

• Continue Outreach and Training

• Add members of the Ensemble to AWIPS

• Increase use of ensemble data in GFE

• Increase utilization of WS-eta

• Evaluation of local WRF element

• Increase ensemble use in GFE/NDFD

Additional