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UTANRÍKISRÁÐUNEYTIÐ
Viðkskipti við Bandaríkin árið 2017
Hlynur GuðjónssonAðalræðismaður og viðskiptafulltrúi
Markaðurinn
Economist Intelligence Unit, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States Department of Labor Burea u of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund, Euromonitor International, World Tourism Organization, Iceland Tourist Board and Iceland Statistics.
Main Economic Figures for the U.S.
• Despite policy uncertainty, financial conditions remain supportive of growth and the U.S. economy is expected to grow modestly above potential in 2018. The USD is moderately stronger than 12 months ago. Financial conditions are looser than in 2016 and are supportive of investment.
• After a prolonged deleveraging, the housing sector is showing a healthy growth. U.S households are in relatively good financial shape, with the debt service to disposable income ratio of 10% at the lowest level since the early 1980s.
• GDP forecast is at 2.1% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018 and 2.2% 2019 according to the FedPhil. The FedPhilforecast is 0.3% higher in 2018 than IMF and The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
• Personal consumer expenditure (PCE) is expected to slowly rise above 2% before returning to the Federal Reserve's medium target of 2%. Inflation is expected to rise modestly and reach above 2%. Forecasters predict PCE to be from 2.1% to 2.7% in 2017 and 1.9% to 3.0% 2018.
• Unemployment rate is at 4.4% and job growth continuous to be strong. The FedPhil forecast for 2017 is 4.3% and same for 2018 and 2019. Other institutions such as IMF and Euromonitor International are at the same level. Wages are still stagnant and have been since the downturn in 2008. The tightening labor market is drawing detached workers back into the labor market and starting to put upward pressure on wages, particularly for those that are switching jobs.
• U.S. export accounts for 7.8% of GDP and is expected to grow 2.4% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Import is expected to grow in 2017 and 2018 3.8% and 5.5% respectively.
• Forecasters predict continuous rise in stock prices between the levels of 2410 points at the end of 2017 to 2630 at the end of 2018.
• Health goods and medical services are expected to be the fastest growing consumer categories in 2017-2030 and communication will be the second fastest growing category.
Ferðaþjónusta
PROFILES OF POTENTIAL TRAVELLERS I
» Gender: Men are likely to show more interest to travel to Iceland than women.
» Age: People aged 18-54 are significantly more likely to express high interest in Iceland as a travel destination than consumers aged 55+.
» Education: Interest in Iceland has a correlation with higher education.
» Type: Frequent Travelers and the Outdoor Type exhibit the highest levels of interest in travel to Iceland, followed by City Vacationers.
» Income: Interest in Iceland is highly correlated with household income of $100K plus.
» Employment: The majority of potential travellers are employed full or part time.
» Residence: Consumers in the West and South are more interested in travel to Iceland than consumers in Northeast and Midwest.
SOURCE: 2016 CONSUMER RESEARCH IN THE US, ICELAND NATURALLY; VISITOR SURVEY, ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD
US MARKET SNAPSHOT
POPULATION: 322M
73 M
13.8M
73 MTOTAL OUTBOUND
TRAVELERS
34 MLIKELY TRAVELERS TO
ICELAND
13,8 MLIKELY TO TRAVEL TO
ICELAND IN NEAR
FUTURE
PROFILES OF POTENTIAL TRAVELLERS II
» Buying behaviour:
– Most (41,4%) of the US visitors book their trip less than 2 months in advance, 31% of them book their trip 2-4 months in advance [1].
– At least 66% of leisure travellers (and 59% of business travellers) use search engines to research travel online [2]. And according to a survey by TripAdvisor 98% of North Americans say that reviews are influential in generating bookings [3].
– In 2015, online travel sales to US residents grow by 7%. Mobile travel sales to US residents as a percentage of all online travel sales to US residents increased in every category in that year [4].
– Instagram has become the go-to social media website for travel operators to reach US consumers in a genuine and personal way [4].
– Travellers seek mostly information from the internet, friends and relatives, brochures and handbooks and airlines when deciding on travelling to Iceland [1].
– March to May are the main booking months for Iceland travel.
– Most US residents (69%) search for Iceland travel-related things with a desktop computer, 39% search with mobile [5].
SOURCE: [1] INTERNATIONAL VISITORS IN ICELAND WINTER 2013/2104, ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD; [2] THE WELL CONNECTED TRAVELLER, TRAVELPORT; [3] TRIPBAROMETER APRIL 2014: NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN EDITION; [4] ONLINE TRAVEL SALES TO RESIDENTS IN THE US, EUROMONITOR; [5] GOOGLE TRENDS; [6] 2016 CONSUMER RESEARCH IN THE US, ICELAND NATURALLY
US MARKET SNAPSHOT
» Travel behaviour:
• The majority of potential travellers are frequent travellers [6].
• US visitors are more inclined to stay in Reykjavik and take day tours to nearby regions [1].
• Travellers from US are more inclined to visit during summer time and majority of them (48,7%) stay for 3-4 nights [1].
• US visitors are mainly interested in geothermal swimming pools (65,5%), guided tours (51,3%), northern l ights tours (41,7%), museums (35,9%) and wellness activities (28,3%) [1].
• Most of (73,9%) US visitors say that they are travell ing independently, 26,4% say that they booked a package holiday where travel and accommodation was included in the same price [1].
VISITORS 2017
AVERAGE STAY** (ALL MARKET AVG: 6,9 NIGHTS)
FOREIGN CARD TURNOVER
* INTERNATIONALVISITOR CREDIT- AND DEBITCARD TURNOVER IN ICELAND ** INTERNATIONAL VISITOR SURVEY
MARKET SNAPSHOT 2017
576.403
• The largest visitor market over the whole year
• Lower than average overnight stay (5,9 nights) mainly due to higher share of transatlantic stop-over passengers compared to other markets
5,9 NIGHTS
USA
84.13M ISK
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mar
ket
shar
e (V
isito
r A
rriv
als
thro
ugh
KEF
Airp
ort)
• Bandaríkin er stærsta viðskiptaland Íslands í ferðþjónustu og næst koma Bretland, Þýskalandi, Kanada og Frakkland
• Straumhvörf urðu árið 2009 þegar Icelandair hóf flug til Seattle. Í dag fljúga fjögur flugfélög til 18 áfangastaða en var 1 flugfélag árið 2009 til 5 áfangastaða
• Síðan þá hefur ferðamönnum frá Bandaríkjanna til Íslands fjölgað um 1200%
• Fjölgun ferðamanna var 71% milli ára 2015/2016 og 39% milli ára 2016/2017.
• Farþegar frá Norður Ameríku voru 680 þús. árið 2017 og er N-A stærsta markaðssvæðið Íslands í ferðaþjónustu. 0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bandaríkin
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ferðamenn eftir markaðssvæðum
N-Ameríka
Mið-/S-Evrópa
Bretland
Norðurlöndin
Annað
MA
RK
AÐ
SE
IN
KU
NN
20
18
/
ÍS
LE
NS
K F
ER
ÐA
ÞJ
ÓN
US
TA
• Þrep 4: hluti af 10% bestu
• Þrep 3: Hluti af 25% bestu
• Þrep 2: Hluti af 50% bestu
• Þrep 1: Hluti af 50% verstu
BandaríkinVídd Þrep Þáttur Samtals Breyting milli ára Tímabil
Markaðshlutdeild (gistinætur) 23% 4% 2016
Markaðsþróun s.l. 3 ár (gistinætur) +1.044.724 47% 2013/2016
Aukning á ferðaleitarfyrirspurnum um Ísland (áhugi) 73% 31% 2015/2017
Fjöldi utanlandsferða (1000 ferðir) 85.268 +6.290 2016
Framtíðarspá í utanlandsferðum næstu þrjú ár (árlegur meðal vöxtur) 3% -0,4% 2018/2021
Meðaleyðsla á ferðalag ($) $1.323 +$44 2016
Árstíðarsveifluvísitala gistinátta á Íslandi (0=engin, 1=hámark) 0,23 -17% 2016
Hlutfall gistinátta utan sumarmánaða 60% +5% 2016
Markaðshlutdeild (sætistala) í samanburðarlöndum 6 -1 2016
Kaupmáttur (GDP per capita, PPP) $57.442 +$1.098 2016
Consumer Confidence Index 0,7 -0,1 2016
Fjarlægð frá KEF flugvelli (km) 4.516 2017
Framboð á beinu flugi til Íslands (flugsæti) 2.699.273 +803.817 2017
Framboð á beinu flugi utan sumarmánaða til Íslands (flugsæti) 1.753.324 +547.749 2017
ALMENNT STYRKUR ÁKJÓSANLEIKI AÐGENGI
Sty
rku
rÁ
kjó
sa
nle
iki
Að
ge
ng
i
Einkunn: 9
FLOKKUR
Sæti:
Hópur:
2
A
10 9
1 2 3
A A A
10
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000
Yo
Y G
row
th 2
01
6 v
s 2
01
7
NUMBER OF VISITORS TO ICELAND
Market Visitor Arrivals YoY Growth
USA 576.403 39%
OTHER 390.933 37%
UK 322.543 2%
GERMANY 155.813 17%
CANADA 103.026 24%
FRANCE 100.374 18%
CHINA 86.003 29%
POLLAND 66.299 67%
SPAIN 57.971 48%
SWEDEN 56.229 3%
DENMARK 53.240 7%
THE NETHERLANDS
49.164 26%
NORWAY 47.958 -6%
ITALY 40.865 29%
SWITZERLAND 30.166 5%
FINLAND 24.068 21%
JAPAN 22.397 0%
RUSSIA 11.819 87%
USAMarket Size: 26%
UKMarket Size: 15%
GERMarket Size: 7%
MARKETSHARE VS YOY GROWTH 2017
SOURCE: ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD – VISITOR ARRIVALS THROUGH KEF AIRPORT
ICELAND TOURISM MARKET SNAPSHOT
OTHERMarket Size: 18%
Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna
Aukið virði útflutnings
• Virði heildar útflutnings til Bandaríkjanna dróst saman milli ára 2016 og 2017 um 13% úr 41. 7 milljörðum í 36.2. Megin ástæðan erstyrking ISK um 11.5% á sama tímabili
• Toppar 2006, 2008 og 2010 eru iðnvörur “tæki og vörur til lækninga” og “flugvélar”
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Total Export to the US in ISK
Bill
ion
ISK
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hlutdeild BNA af heildarútflutningi heldur áfram að aukast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Sjávarafurðir - Virði
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Þorskur Ýsa
Lax Silungur
• Vægi þorsks (9%) og ýsu (41%) heldur áfram að aukast• Ársframleiðsla á laxi og silungi eykst en útflutningur til BNA á laxi minnkar um 200 tonn, eykst um
80 tonn á silungi
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands & Seðlabanki Íslands
-
5
10
15
20
25
Bil
lio
ns
ISK
Útflutningur sjávarafurða til Bandaríkjanna - Virði
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
76,76
70,12
62,8669,78
64,02
88,07
123,59
122,04
116,07
125,05
122,23
116,75
131,85120,67
106,78
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Miðgengi USD vs ISK 2003-2017 - ISK styrkist um 11.5% vs USD
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Þáttur sjávarafurða í útflutningi eykst• Virði útflutnings dróst saman um 6.9% milli 2016/2017 en jókst um tæpt 1% í tonnum sama
tímabil• Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum síðan 2005• Sjávarafurðir eru tæp 30% af virði útflutnings til BNA 2012, 52% 2013, 56% 2014, 60% 2014,
53% 2016 og 56% árið 2017
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Útflutningur sjávarafurða til Bandaríkjanna - Tonn
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sjávarafurðir - Útflutningur til BandaríkjannaMesti þorsk útflutningur síðan 2004
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Í þú
sun
du
m t
on
na
Þorskur
Ýsa
Ufsi
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Í hu
nd
ruð
um
to
nna
Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna
Lax
Silungur
Fersk fiskur
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands og Seðlabanki Íslands
• Virði útflutnings á ferskum fiski dróstsaman um 5.5% milli 16/17
• Magn útflutnings á ferskum fiski jókstum rúm 3.7% sama tíma
• USD féll um 11.5% gagnvart ISK (miðgengi) milli16/17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Bill
ion
s
Fersk útflutningur - Virði
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
Tho
usa
nd
s
Ferskfisk útflutningur - Tonn
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Saltfiskur
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Þorskur
Ufsi
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Saltað - heild í tonnum
Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna - Saltað og blautsaltað í tonnum
Fisk olía – Virði 2017 er 1.25 mlja
Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fisk olía - Tonn
Fisk olía
Samantekt• Bandaríski markaðurinn er ekki lengur í lægð; hagvöxtur eykst, neytendur eru jákvæðir,
atvinnuleysi dregst saman og kaupgeta og laun hækka.• Markaðurinn er í mikilli nálægð við Ísland með góðar samgöngur og langa viðskiptasögu.• Ísland stendur vel í huga neytenda í Bandaríkjunum• Magn sjávarafurða eykst lítilega en gengi krónunnar áhrif á virði afurða sem dregst saman um
rúm 5%• Útflutningur frá Íslandi til Bandaríkjanna hrynur eftir aldamót 2000 og tekur ekki við sér fyrr en
2012– 67% samdráttur í tonnum frá 2001-2010.– 75% samdráttur í þorski og 76% í laxi en 80% aukning í sölu á bleikju. Sala á loðnu og síld
hverfur og sala á humri er óveruleg.– Stærsti hluti aukningar er sala á fersk fiski. – Þorskur er til aftur á markaðnum og sala á laxi og silungi helst stöðu– Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum séð til Bandaríkjanna síðan
2005; hrunið milli 2005 og 2006 er að mestu vegna brotthvarfs loðnu.• Sala á saltfiski (þorskur og ufsi) er nánast að hverfa eins og var árin 2005-2008
Seafood Expo North AmericaKaupstefnur í Kanada og BNA
Seafood Expo North America• Bás á sýningunni síðan 2012
– 8 fyrirtæki taka þátt í afurða básnum og 5 í tækni og þjónustu hluta sýningarinnar 2018
– Markaðssamstarf með SeafoodSource• Auglýsing á vefsíðu og fréttablaði SeafoodSource ásamt
markpósti á 2600 sjávarútvegsfyrirtæki í Norður Ameríku– Markpóstur til 1200 fyrirtækja í Norður Ameríku– Eftirfylgni eftir sýningu
Kaupstefnur – Tækni og þjónustufyrirtæki– Í bígerð er kaupstefna á austurströnd Kanada haust/vetur 2018
Vatn, áfengir drykkir og landbúnaðarvörur
• Útflutningur á vatni var 1.6 milljarður árið 2016 vs 1.3 árið 2017
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
Mill
jón
ir IS
K
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Í to
nn
um
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• Útflutningur á áfengum drykkjum var næsta 0 kr. Árið 2011, 350 milljónir árið 2016 vs 276 árið 2016 (inn í tölunar vantar Reyka Vodka sem er flutt til U.K. og tappaðþar. BNA er stærsti markaður Reyka Vodka)
• Þessi vöruflokkur hefur alla burði til að reynast Íslandi dýrmætur
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
Mill
jón
ir IS
K
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
Í hu
nd
ruð
um
to
nna
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sala á lambakjöti eykst á milli ára
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Í mill
jón
um
ISK
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Í hu
nd
ruð
um
ton
na
• Sala á mjólkurvörum hefur verið dræm en nýtt vörumerkiIcelandic Provisions kemur sterkt inn 2016 en hefurframleiðslu í BNA 2017
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Í mill
jón
um
ISK
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Íslenskar afurðir standa vel í huga neytenda
“Other:”
11% -
Pure/clean/beautiful
10% - Green/warm
5% - Positive remarks
4% - Volcanoes
2% - Fish, seafood,
whales
TOP-OF-MIND ASSOCIATIONS
What is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Iceland? (%, open-end)
Ice, snow, cold
Nature, landscape
Music, culture
Other
INTEREST IN PRODUCTS
36%
How interested are you in each of the following products from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
56%
37%
39%
48%
29%
31%
Interest in SEAFOOD is correlated
with age, gender, income, education, frequent travel, and the Outdoor Type.
How interested are you in seafood from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
SEAFOOD ORIGIN
How much would your opinion be affected by the origin of the fish? (“makes me really want the fish” 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
There is a slight decline
in consumers’ interest in the
origin of fish from all
countries. Interest in the
fish from Iceland is at
45% in 2016, as
compared to 50% in 2014.
Which of the following describes what you think of seafood from Iceland?
OPINIONS OF SEAFOOD FROM ICELAND
48% of respondents
say seafood from Iceland is
FRESH and HIGH QUALITY, consistent
with results from 2014
Hlynur Guðjó[email protected]+1 646 282 9360 / +354 545 7766www.iceland.is/us/nyc