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Utah Economic Update May 2013 Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean. Presentation Outline. Glum and angry Positive and happy Reflective. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Utah EconomicUpdate
May 2013Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean
Presentation Outline
• Glum and angry
• Positive and happy
• Reflective
“You can feel the economy wants to launch, but Washington is sitting on the national mood button. We the people still feel like
children of permanently divorcing parents.”- Tom Friedman
The Great Divorce
Job Losses in Recent Recessions
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
MedicareAverage couple retiring in 2010
• Medicare taxes paid$122K
• Medicare benefits received $387K
Source: Urban Institute
“The greatest nation on earth – the greatest nation on earth – cannot keep conducting its business by drifting from one manufactured crisis to the next. We can’t do it.”
-President Barack Obama
Yes We Can …?
Fiscal Crises Naming Conventions• Debt ceiling stand off (August 2011)
ANDREA
• Super Committee deadline (December 2011)BARRY
• Fiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012)CHANTEL
• Fiscal cliff (January 2013)DORIAN
• Start of sequestration (March 2013)ERIN
• Debt ceiling revisited (May 2013)FERNAD
• Next crisisGABRIELLE
Job Growth: Utah and U.S.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%
0.1%
-5.1%
-0.6%
2.3%3.2%
-0.6%
-4.4%
-0.7%
1.2% 1.4%
Utah U.S.
Top Five Job Growth States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 2012 – March 2013
Idaho
Colorado
Texas
Utah
North Dakota
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
2.4%
2.6%
3.1%
4.2%
4.4%
Year-Over Percent Change
U.S. average = 1.5%
Utah Job Growth by IndustryApril 2013
Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health
Prof. and Business
Financial Activities
Information
Trade, Trans, Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources
Total
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
-1.44.3
5.93.4
4.96.0
10.4
4.62.9
3.40.0
3.5Chart Title
Year-Over Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Fiscal ChecklistBalanced Budget
RequirementLine Item Veto AAA Bond
Rating
Rainy Day Fund
AppropriationLimitation
BondLimitation
U.S. Fiscal ChecklistBalanced Budget
RequirementLine Item Veto AAA Bond
Rating
Rainy Day Fund
AppropriationLimitation
BondLimitation
Utah’s Unique Demographic Profile
In the country…
Third fastest growingHighest fertility rate
Lowest median age
Largest household sizeLong life expectancy
Rapidly diversifying
Total Fertility Rate
ArizonaOklahomaNebraska
HawaiiKansas
TexasIdaho
South DakotaAlaska
UtahU.S.
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
2.07
2.11
2.142.15
2.16
2.162.24
2.27
2.352.45
1.93
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 61, No. 1
U.S. and Ten Highest States: 2010
Median Age
KansasArizona
LouisianaGeorgia
CaliforniaIdaho
DCAlaskaTexas
UtahU.S.
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
36.0
35.9
35.835.3
35.2
34.6
33.833.8
33.629.2
37.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1
U.S. and Lowest Ten States: 2010
Household Size
GeorgiaArizonaAlaska
NevadaIdaho
New JerseyTexasHawaii
CaliforniaUtahU.S.
2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10
2.63
2.632.65
2.65
2.66
2.682.75
2.89
2.903.10
2.59
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
U.S. and Highest Ten States: 2010
Life Expectancy
Source: American Human Development Projects, Measure of America 2010-2011
Top Ten States
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
North Dakota
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New York
California
Minnesota
Hawaii
79.00 79.50 80.00 80.50 81.00 81.50
79.92 79.92
80.08
80.10
80.10 80.18
80.36 80.37
80.85 81.48
Minority Population Growth By State2000-2010
Washington
Nebraska
Vermont
Minnesota
Iowa
Idaho
Utah
Maine
New Hampshire
Nevada
U.S.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8048.8
50.7
51.854.3
59.8
62.5
64.866.0
67.578.1
28.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2000 – 2010 Growth in Utah’s Population by Race and Ethnicity
24%
91%
78%
61%
61%
56%
48%
17%
2%
Total Population
Other
Hispanic/Latino
Native Pacific Islander
African American
Two or More Races
Asian
White
American Indian/Alaskan
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2010 Census.
“We can have a hard decade or a bad century.”
- Tom Friedman
Source: the dip, Seth Godin
Source: the dip, Seth Godin
“Utah is a great example of what enlightened and motivated political leadership can accomplish with a solid plan,” said Brent Pollina of Pollina Corporate Real Estate. He went on to call Utah, the “brightest star” on the American flag and the ultimate model for the rest of the country.”
-MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal
Utah the Brightest Star