Using Words as Data to Analyze Constitutional Change

Mises Seminar - Istituto Bruno Leoni September 21 2014

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By Julia Rubicam George Mason University

• Do Institutions Matter?!

• Western World has a tradition of creating written Constitutions

• 154 Sovereign States / Countries

• 9 Unrecognized States

• 13 Territories

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• In the US, each state has its own written constitution

States Constitutions

• Examines the overall size and scope of the US state constitutions

• Highlights the emergence of new policy initiatives and changes in issue priority

• Exposes the variation that exists across the fifty states

The Evolution of State Constitutions

The Evolution of State Constitutions• The Data: !

• All US state constitutions enacted since 1776

- Including Confederate State Constitutions

• All current US state constitutions (with amendments)

• 200 total constitutions in the dataset

# of Constitutions # of States State1 17 AK, AZ, CO, ID, KS, ME, MA, MN, NV, NM, ND, OK, OR, SD, UT, WI, WY2 10 CA, HI*, IN, IA, MT, NE, OH, RI, WA, WV3 5 CT, NH, NJ, TN, VT4 9 DE, IL, KY, MD, MI, MO, MS, NC, NY5 3 AR, PA, TX6 2 AL, FL7 1 SC8 1 VA

10 2 GA, LA

• Colonial Constitutions:!• Average: 5,217 • Shortest: 931 (New Hampshire) • Longest: 11,396 (Massachusetts)

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• Current State Constitutions:!• Average: 36,133 • Shortest: 8,043 (Vermont) • Longest: 330,701 (Alabama)

The Length of State Constitutions

The Length of State Constitutions

010

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2000

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onst

itutio

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ngth

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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Constitution Year

The Length of State Constitutions0

2000

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6000

080

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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Constitution Year

Net Words Linear Trend

• State Fixed Effects Model with Robust Standard Errors

- 1,516 word increase per decade

- 1,136 word increase (without Alabama)

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• Poisson Model with Fixed Effects and Robust Standard Errors

- 8.16% growth per decade

- 6.58% growth per decade (without Alabama)

Overall Growth of US State Constitutions

32 Constitutional Categories

• Preamble • Boundaries • Declaration of Rights • Religion • Private Property • Discrimination • Suffrage & Elections • Peoples’ Initiative • Representation • Legislative • Executive • Judicial • Militia • General Operations • Education • Tax & Finance

• Business & Corporations • Railroads & Canals • Banking • Social Regulations • Public Goods • Agriculture • Natural Resources • Entitlements • Public Institutions • State Lands • State Power • Local Government • Federal Government • Amendment Process • Schedule • Post Script

Preamble Boundaries Rights Religion Private Property Discrimination Suffrage Initiative Represent Legislative Executive JudicialFFCCCC CC9999 FFFF99 CCCC00 669966 CC9966 99FFCC FFCC99 CC99FF 9999FF FF3333 FF9933Preamble State

BoundariesRights Religion Property Discrimination Suffrage Referendum Representation Legislature Executive Judiciary

Grievance Agst King

Trail by Jury Religious Freedom Eminent Domain Indentured Service Electors Petition Apportionment Gen Assembly Secretary of State Judicial DistrictsLibel Right of Conscience Corporate Eminent Domain Slavery Voting Initiative Redistricting Jurisprudence Exec Counsel Judicial ScheduleUniform Law Separation of Church Homestead Racism Election Franchise Recall Petition Lots Governors Veto JuriesNo Standing Army State Religion Entails Race Election Returns CourtsNo Quartered Soldiers Religious Scruples Perpetuities Color Board of Registrars Writ of ErrorPublic Record Feudal Tenure Creed Disqualifications ArbitrationSex Offender Allodial National Origin Property Qualification ProsecutionsVictims Rights Laborer’s Lien Indians Poll Tax Damages

Forfeiture of Property Secret ballots ContemptMortgages Residency - Absent Convictions

General Elections BarratrySelectmen UnconstitutionalPrimary VenueCampaign Finance

Militia General Operations Education Taxation Finance

Business Railroads Canals Banking Regulation Pub. Good Agriculture Natural Resources

33CC00 CCCCCC 0066FF CCCC99 66CCFF 0099CC 33CCCC 669999 999966 FF99CC FF6699Militia Operations Education Finance Corporations Railroads Banking Dueling Public Good Agriculture ResourcesNational Guard Seat of Government Public Instruction Taxes Monopoly Canals Usury Lotteries Internal Improvement Livestock EnvironmentForts Distribution of Powers School Land Revenue Business Restrictions fares & passes Gambling Capital Projects Farming ConservationGarrisons State Offices School Funds Debt Embargos Selling of Railroads Gaming Commons Ranching Preservation

Oath of Office School Districts Appropriations Industry & Trade Liquor Public Roads Warehouses ParksTerms of Office Student Loans Budget Labor / Unions Drugs Highways Promotion MineralsTerm Limits Libraries Budget Sessions Bus Development Smoking Navigable Waters DrainageTerm During Good Behavior Expense Reports Private Utilities Master Settlement Levees & Dams ReservoirsRemoval from Office Expense Oaths Pubic Service Com. Marriage Ports Water UsageImpeachment State Auditor Employment Divorce Public Works Water SalesRecall of officers — not petition Comptroller Merchandise Inspection Bigamy Public Transit Sportsman BillVacancy Treasurer Price Controls Polygamy Public Buildings Fish & GameDisqualified Persons Public Money Stockholders Abortion Public Health Energy SubsidiesOffice Property Qualification State Credit Healthcare services Gun Control Sewage TreatmentPublic Employment State Contracts Insurance Stem Cells State PoliceOfficial Office Bond Bond Insurance License Tax Fire DepartmentCode of Ethics Payment Occ. Licensing Natural DisastersMerit Test Franchise Tax Tourism Promotion Blighted AreasState Personal Board Tax Exemptions Nuclear DetonationCivil Service Public BeachCollective Bargaining (pub)Salaries and DeductionsPay of deceased or retiring officialsFalse Reporting of officePerjury in officeOfficials accepting rail passHolder Public Money DisqualifiedOfficial LanguageLobbying

Natural Resources

Entitlements Institutions State Land State Power Local Government

Fed Amend Process

Schedule Post Script

Headings Net Words

FF6699 FF3399 FF9999 CC9900 993333 6633CC CCCCFF CCFFCC CC66FF 999999 FFFFFFResources Paupers Institutions Land Office Treason Local Gov Continental Congress Council

Of CensorsTransition Headings Words

Environment Poor Deaf, Dumb, Blind State Leases Martial Law Home Rule Enabling Act Temporary Provisions MinusConservation Veteran Affairs Handicapped Granted Land Sovereign Immunity Counties The Union Enact Provisions of Constitution HeadingsPreservation Pensions Insane Public Land State Suits Municipalities Supreme Law ConventionParks Retirement Mental Health Escheat Claims Agts State Municipal Debt Secession TerritoryMinerals Workmen’s Comp Hospitals Police Power Municipal Tax Civil WarDrainage Housing Projects Jail Emergency Power County Officers ConfederacyReservoirs Homeless Corrections No Habeas Corpus Local Authorities US LandWater Usage Social Services Penitentiary Suspending Laws Local Referendum US JurisdictionWater Sales Heath Care Fund Prison Mandatory Provisions Sheriffs US RedistrictingSportsman Bill Medical Malpractice Fund Convict Farms Coroners US CompactFish & Game Victims Fund Convict Work US CongressEnergy Subsidies Inmate Work US Term Limits

Commissioners US ConsentHospital Districts US Bonds

US GrantsFederal Gov

• Traditionally!

• Structure of Government

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• Legislation:!

• Business - 1830s & 1840s

• Tax & Finance - 1830s & 1840s

• Environment - 1880s & 1900s

• Entitlement - 1860s — 1930s &1940s

Constitutional Growth by CategoryGrowth Per Decade, by Category

Words % Growth

Religion 0.4 0.19Schedule 16 1.78Rights 29 3.03Legislative 48 3.36Executive 47 3.64Federal Govt 25 3.90Suffrage 23 4.24Railroads & Canals 7 4.60State Land 3 4.78General Operations 41 4.92Amendment Process 23 6.26Judicial 149 6.38Business 30 6.74Net Words 1,530 8.19State Power 11 8.45Private Property 23 8.98Education 80 12.16Public Institutions 16 12.88Social Regulation 34 13.33Tax/Finance 204 13.50Public Goods 63 18.71Local Government 482 20.94Agriculture 19 21.82People’s Initiative 23 22.33Entitlements 52 29.49Environment 68 30.76

State Words % Growth

Montana -667 -4.18

North Dakota -263 -1.30

Minnesota 27 0.25

Wisconsin 54 0.39

South Dakota 155 0.62

Wyoming 241 1.06

Indiana 111 1.10

Vermont 84 1.19

Iowa 146 1.53

Illinois 247 1.74

Rhode Island 174 2.17

Maine 288 2.22

Idaho 467 2.24

Kansas 260 2.28

New Hampshire 254 2.72

Tennessee 319 2.81

Connecticut 221 3.25

Nevada 822 3.84

New Mexico 1053 4.11

Washington 1030 4.27

North Carolina 446 4.30

Arkansas 746 4.38

Massachusetts 830 4.38

Kentucky 835 4.89

Mississippi 929 5.21

Maryland 1,422 5.54

West Virginia 1,333 6.00

Michigan 1,017 6.06

Virginia 974 6.10

Oklahoma 3,520 6.45

Pennsylvania 931 6.48

Utah 876 6.72

Delaware 1,046 6.81

Nebraska 1,220 6.97

Arizona 2,212 7.14

South Carolina 926 7.47

Hawaii 1,258 7.92

Missouri 2,878 8.36

Colorado 3,879 8.64

Florida 1,762 8.72

New York 1,930 8.88

New Jersey 943 8.94

Oregon 2,140 9.20

Ohio 2,475 10.10

Lousiana 3,116 10.25

Georgia 1,664 10.70

California 3,670 10.77

Texas 4,472 12.01

Alabama 18,239 21.96

Growth of US State Constitutions by State

Percent Growth (Per Decade)N

umbe

r of S

tate

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1

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Growth

< 0% 1-2% 3-4% 5-6% 7-8% 9-10% 11-12% 13-14% > 15%

Table 1: Growth, by Region

10 Yr Word Increase

10 Year Growth Rate

50 Year Growth Rate

New England 197 ** 2.33 *** 11.65

Rocky Mtn 980 4.12 20.60

Plains 918 4.85 ** 24.25

Great Lakes 851 5.12 ** 25.60

Mideast 1,227 ** 7.09 *** 35.45

Far West 2,043 * 7.75 *** 38.75

Southwest 3,553 * 9.87 *** 49.35

Southeast 2,288 10.79 *** 53.95

Example: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001

Constitutional Growth by Region

Current Constitutions Length in Words

1.8 Million Words in Today’s State Constitutions!

• Local Government: 413,200+ (182,000 w/o Alabama)!

• Tax & Finance: 197,500+!

• Judicial: 92,900+!

• Executive: 89,500+!

• Education: 84,400+!

• General Operations: 65,200+!

• Declaration of Rights: 63,400+!

• Environment/Resources: 63,100+!

• Federal Government: 60,400+

Current Constitutions - Total Words by Category

• Tax & Finance: (29 States)!• California (24%) • Louisiana (20%) • Hawaii (19%) • Georgia (17%) • Virginia (17%) • West Virginia (16%) • Florida (14%) • Missouri (14%) • Ohio (14%) • South Carolina (14%) • Arizona (13%) • New Jersey (13%) • Minnesota (13%) • Texas (13%) • Utah (13%) • Washington (13%) • Illinois (12%) • Maine (11%) • Oklahoma (11%) • Wisconsin (11%) • Alaska (10%) • Colorado (10%) • Kansas (10%) • Maryland (10%) • Michigan (10%) • Idaho (10%) • Oregon (10%) • Tennessee (10%)

Prioritized Categories by State• Local Government: (24 States)!

• Alabama (70%) • Oklahoma (31%) • South Carolina (26%) • Georgia (24%) • Maryland (24%) • New York (22%) • Arizona (18%) • New Mexico (17%) • Missouri (16%) • Hawaii (15%) • Idaho (15%) • Illinois (15%) • Colorado (14%) • Tennessee (14%) • North Carolina (13%) • Oregon (13%) • Texas (13%) • Louisiana (12%) • Utah (12%) • California (11%) • Kentucky (11%) • Wisconsin (11%) • Kansas (10%) • Ohio (10%)

• Federal Government (5 States)!• New Hampshire (19%) • Alaska (14%) • South Dakota (14%) • North Dakota (13%) • Nebraska (11%)

!!• Declaration of Rights (5 States)!

• Vermont (17%) • New Hampshire (14%) • Montana (11%) • Rhode Island (11%) • Connecticut (10%)

!!• Education (3 States)!

• North Dakota (21%) • Louisiana (11%) • Texas (10%) !

• Entitlements (2 States)!• West Virginia (16%) • Ohio (14%)

!• Environment (1 State)!

• New Jersey (13%)

• The original American state constitutions barely mentioned the union • Focused on instituting sovereign and independent state governments !

• The central government is becoming more involved in state affairs • A similar situation could arise in the EU • What happens when the European Parliament decides it wants to enact an important

initiative that some members are not interested in? • In theory a state can withdraw from the EU. In practice? !

• The United States was formed through secession and several states emphasized in their ordinances ratifying the US Constitution that the powers being given to the federal government could be taken back

• Yet, state sovereignty was not recognized during the American Civil War !

• Once inseparability is established, a central government has considerably more power and influence !

• Monetary Power • State finances are intertwined with central governments finances • The state constitutions now reference federal aid, grants, and state-federal programs

Federalism & Pluralism

• World Analysis!• The Comparative Constitutions Project (CCP)

• http://comparativeconstitutionsproject.org/ • 192 World Constitutions

Further Research & Applications

• #1: What accounts for the variation across States? • Population, Demographics, Political Elite?

!• #2: Constitution Growth = Growth in Gov’t?

Further Research & Applications