User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK

User Meeting 15 June 2005

Monthly Forecasting

Frederic VitartECMWF, Reading, UK


Monthly Forecasting System

Real-time forecast:

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations: a 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days every Thursday.

• Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a TL159L40 resolution

• Oceanic component: HOPE (from Max-Planck Institute) with a zonal resolution of 1.4 degrees and 29 vertical levels

• Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every ocean time step (1 hour)

Background statistics:

• 5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 12 years


Model Changes during the past year

New versions of IFS :

• Cycle 28R2 in June 2004

• Cycle 28R3 in October 2004 (contains a new physic package)

• Cycle 29R1 in April 2005 (contains a new moist boundary layer scheme)

Operational suite (October 2004):

• The frequency of the monthly forecast is once a week instead of once every two weeks.

• Starting date is Thursday instead of Wednesday

• Product dissemination on Fridays

• Hindcast and real-time forecast are archived under different streams (mnfc and mnfh)

• Model climatology and anomalies relative to the model climate are archived


Performance over the Northern Extratropics

Monthly ForecastPersistence of previous week probabilities

ROC area of probability of 2-meter temperature in upper tercile

Day 12-18 Day 19-32

DJF05DJF04DJF030 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

RO

C a

rea

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

RO

C a

rea

DJF03 DJF04 DJF05


Verification: Week 10/01/2005-16/01/2005

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60

Verification period: 10-01-2005/TO/16-01-20052-meter Temperature anomaly

Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS

FORECAST 06-01-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 30-12-2004: DAY 12-18


<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg



30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E




30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS



<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg



30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E




30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS



<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg



30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E




30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS



<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg



30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E




30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS



<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg


L

L

5.0m/s - -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v

- -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height

- -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion

-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -

13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v

- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -


- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -


- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

L

L

5.0m/s - -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v

- -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height

- -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion

-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -

13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v

- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -


- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

5.0m/s - -


- -


- -


-8

-6

-4

-2

1

3

5

7

9

Monthly Forecast 13/01/2005

Day 5-11 Day 12-18


Future developments (1)End of June :

• Cycle 29R2

• New sea-ice treatment:

Current scheme:

The sea-ice cover is a diagnostic of the ocean model.

There is sea ice if SST is lower than a certain threshold (about -1.7C)

New scheme (Magdalena Balmaseda and Tim Stockdale)

During the first 10 days, sea-ice is persisted from the atmospheric initial conditions.

- After 1 month, we impose climatological sea-ice (from ERA40)

- Between day 10 and month 1, interpolation between persisted sea-ice and climatological sea-ice.


Example: Sea-ice cover on 1/1/2005

SEA-ICE cover (%)

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%

Current Scheme: NEW Scheme:

SEA-ICE cover (%)

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%


Future developments (2)

-Archiving of probabilities:

1) Probability of weekly mean precipitation and temperature anomalies to be

above or below a threshold

2) Terciles, quintiles, 10% and 90% distributions of weekly mean precipitation

and temperature relative to the model climatology. The boundaries will

also be archived.


Future developments (3)

Verification plots on the web site (under development):

- Verification of anomaly maps of 2-meter temperature, Z500, precipitation….

- Some probabilistic scores

- Some deterministic scores

The verification plots will be updated every week


Examples of verification

Anomaly maps:

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

180°150°W

12

0°W

90

°W6

0°W

30°W 0° 30°E

60°E

90°E

120°E

150°EObserved anomaly: Sun 20050228- Sat 20050306

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

180°150°W

120°W

90°W

60°W

30°W 0° 30°E

60°E

90°E

120°E

150°EFC 20050224: Day 5-11

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

180°150°W

120°W

90°W

60°W

30°W 0° 30°E

60°E

90°E

120°E

150°EFC 20050210: Day 19-25

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

180°150°W

12

0°W

90

°W6

0°W

30°W 0° 30°E

60°E

90°E

120°E

150°EFC 20050217: Day 12-18

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

180°150°W

12

0°W

90

°W6

0°W

30°W 0° 30°E

60°E

90°E

120°E

150°EFC 20050203: Day 26-32

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E




30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E

ANALYSIS



<-10deg

-10.. -6

-6.. -3

-3.. -1

-1.. 0

0.. 1

1.. 3

3.. 6

6.. 10

> 10deg

Temperature Z500



Examples of probabilistic scores: ROC scores

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

hit

rat

e

ROC score = 0.663Day 12-18 20041007-20050505

ECMWF Monthly Forecast, 2mtm in upper tercile , Area:Northern Extratropics

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

20041007 TO 20050505WEEK2ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System

<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9



Example of deterministic scores:

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

An

om

aly

Co

rr. C

oeff

.

Anomaly Correlation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

RM

S e

rro

r (m

)

RMS Error

Ensemble MeanECMWF ensemble Forecasts

31 forecasts N.Hemis

MOFC CLIM

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

An

om

aly

Co

rr. C

oeff

.

Anomaly Correlation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

RM

S e

rro

r (m

)

RMS Error



MOFC CLIM

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

An

om

aly

Co

rr. C

oef

f.

Anomaly Correlation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Day

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

RM

S e

rro

r (m

)

RMS Error



MOFC CLIM


Future developments (4)SYSTEM changes

• Autumn 2005: CY30R1. The resolution of the monthly forecasting system will

change from TL159L40 to TL159L62. The additional vertical levels will be in the

mid-troposphere.

• 2006: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS.


Future developments (5)Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS

Present situation: 2 separate systems

EPS:

Day 0 Day 10

TL255L40 twice a day uncoupled

MOFC:

Day 0 Day 32

TL159L40 once a week

Ocean model



End of 2005: 2 separate systems

VAREPS:

Day 0 Day 7

twice a day uncoupled

MOFC:

Day 0 Day 32

TL159L62 once a week

Ocean model

Day 15

TL399L62TL255L62



2006: single system

VAREPS:

Day 0 Day 7

twice a day

MOFC:

Day 0 Day 32Ocean model (once a week)

Day 15

TL399L62TL255L62

TL255L62 (*)

Once a week

* To be confirmed


Future developments (8)SYSTEM changes

2006 : Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS.

• New MARS archiving for this system. For example stream mnfc will become enfo

• Hindcasts will still be produced with the same resolution as the full VAREPS

system. This could also be useful for calibrating medium-range weather forecasts.


Madden Julian Oscillation Experiments: 15/12/92-31/01/93

ERA40 Analysis:

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N

Zonal wind anomaly at 850 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

-1

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

U850Velocity Potential 200 hPa

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAYS


30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W


Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

6

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

DAY

S


30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W


Outgoing Long wave RadiationHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST

30/01

29/0128/0127/01

26/0125/0124/01

23/0122/0121/01

20/0119/0118/0117/01

16/0115/0114/01

13/0112/0111/01

10/01 9/01 8/01

7/01 6/01 5/01

4/01 3/01 2/01

1/0131/1230/1229/12

28/1227/1226/12

25/1224/1223/12

22/1221/1220/12

19/1218/1217/12

16/1215/12

OLR


MJO ExperimentsVelocity Potential correlation

Persisted SSTs Coupled Observed SSTs

Persistence of atmos. initial conditions

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meaneldt

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanel5a

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

30

25

20

15

10

5

0D

AY

S

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanel26

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek7h

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanel26

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek7h

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1


MJO ExperimentsVelocity Potential correlation

Mixed-layer modelCoupled Mixed-layer model10-meter vertical resolution

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

-0.7

-0.5

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanelio

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek6v

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanel26

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek7h

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

-0.7

-0.5

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanelio

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek6v

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Persistence

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble meanel26

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

DA

YS

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

LONGITUDE

30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W

Ensemble Meanek7h

0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1


Real-time monthly forecasts (81 cases) Loss of Variance

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Time Lag (Days)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4V

ari

an

ce

PC1 Fcst PC2 Fcst PC1 Analysis PC2 Analysis

Documents

User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK