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International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 8, Issue 4, April 2018 195 ISSN 2250-3153 http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 www.ijsrp.org Usefulness of NCMRWF Products for Indian Space- Launch Programmes D. Rajan * and CM. Kishtawal ** * NCMRWF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UttarPradesh, India ** SAC, Department of Space, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India DOI: 10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 Abstract- The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched 11 successful space missions between April 2017 and January 2018. The space centre, which was popularly known as SHAR (Sriharikota Range) was renamed as Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) during 2002 and is one of the second best ideally located spaceport and provides the launch base infrastructure for the ISRO’s space programmes. Apart from the location of the spaceport, the weather around the spaceport plays a critical role in deciding the “Go/No Go” decision for the space mission directors. Weather and weather forecasts are a crucial part of space launch operations at various stages which includes the selection of launch site, design phase of the launch vehicle, date and time of launch etc., For the last five years the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has been providing weather forecast/advisories on daily basis to SHAR’s space launch operations. This paper brings out the usefulness of NCMRWF’s weather forecasts for the recent SHAR launches in a detailed manner. The results of the paper concludes: (1) from surface to the middle atmosphere the differences in geo-potential height is found to be within the limit of 5-8 (gpm), whereas it shows 10-20 (gpm) in the upper atmosphere; (2) since winds are ovarying in nature here from surface to middle atmosphere i.e., up to non-divergent level, the zonal wind U-component has the bias of 4-5 (m/sec); whereas it shows more than 8 (m/sec) in the levels above 500 hPa; (3) but the meridional wind V-component has less biases in the lower troposphere; (4) the humidity parameters agrees well with the desire accuracy along with the rainfall etc; (5) the meteogram of surface parameters has high correlation coefficient with the desired accuracy. The NCMRWF medium range products have been validated through the observation or ground truth in the best possible way. Index Terms- Space-launch, wind-shear, Forecast, Modeling, Monsoon and Winter I. FEATURES OF SHAR CENTRE 2.1 Geographical Location HAR centre is located in Sriharikota which is a spindle- shaped island on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh closer to the equator and with sea on the eastern side. It has successfully launched several Indian and foreign satellites. Being closer to equator benefits eastward launches and rotation of the earth provides an extra little boost, so it requires less fuel. In addition SHAR has also evolved with better rail and road connectivity apart from sea-lane accessibility to move heavy equipment. The Bay of Bengal on the eastern side acts as a safety buffer to avoid human causalities in case of accidents. The SHAR centre has the facilities for launch vehicle integration, launch operations, range operations comprising telemetry etc. The SHAR centre has two launch pads called first launch pad (FLP) and second launch pad (SLP). From the first launch pad the rocket launching operations of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) are being carried out. From the second launch pad the rocket launching operations of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) are being carried out. 2.2 Available Meteorological Observations and their significance Weather and weather forecasts are very critical during various stages of a launch. SHAR island receives rainfall during summer and winter monsoon seasons, but heavy rain fall events occurs only in October and November, thus many clear days are available in a year for out-door static tests and launching. Beginning from the selection of launch site and design phase of the launch vehicle weather factors, parameters and weather phenomena are required to ensure a safe launch. Meteorological bulletins provide a long term climatological mean trends of daily meteorology observations, accurate now-casting, short range and long range weather forecasting over the launch station applicable for various phases of launch operations. SHAR is equipped with various observation platforms some of them are Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), instruments like 100 m, 20 m Met towers, upper wind observations using hydrogen or helium filled balloons, wind profiler and Radio-sondes are used to derive upper wind data up to 40 km height, electric field mills both up- ward and down-ward looking, Micro-wave Radiometer, Doppler weather radar etc. The conventional observation from the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) Chennai and National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL) located at Gadanki are also used for the launch. Significant variations of upper winds within the short interval of 3 to 4 hours at critical heights are a matter of concern for launch vehicles. Particularly upper wind variations associated with unprecedented high wind shears impose high wind loads on the vehicle which can be catastrophic in nature. During the last one year, ISRO could accomplish 11 space missions 1 (Annual Report 2017-18, Department of Space). In order to document/study the usefulness of the NCMRWF meteorological parameters we have undertaken the five recent S

Usefulness of NCMRWF Products for Indian Space … · The evaluation/verification has been carried out for all days of prediction ... infrastructure for sounding rockets of ISRO and

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International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 8, Issue 4, April 2018 195 ISSN 2250-3153

http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 www.ijsrp.org

Usefulness of NCMRWF Products for Indian Space-Launch Programmes

D. Rajan* and CM. Kishtawal**

*NCMRWF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UttarPradesh, India **SAC, Department of Space, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

DOI: 10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628

http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 Abstract- The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched 11 successful space missions between April 2017 and January 2018. The space centre, which was popularly known as SHAR (Sriharikota Range) was renamed as Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) during 2002 and is one of the second best ideally located spaceport and provides the launch base infrastructure for the ISRO’s space programmes. Apart from the location of the spaceport, the weather around the spaceport plays a critical role in deciding the “Go/No Go” decision for the space mission directors. Weather and weather forecasts are a crucial part of space launch operations at various stages which includes the selection of launch site, design phase of the launch vehicle, date and time of launch etc., For the last five years the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has been providing weather forecast/advisories on daily basis to SHAR’s space launch operations. This paper brings out the usefulness of NCMRWF’s weather forecasts for the recent SHAR launches in a detailed manner. The results of the paper concludes: (1) from surface to the middle atmosphere the differences in geo-potential height is found to be within the limit of 5-8 (gpm), whereas it shows 10-20 (gpm) in the upper atmosphere; (2) since winds are ovarying in nature here from surface to middle atmosphere i.e., up to non-divergent level, the zonal wind U-component has the bias of 4-5 (m/sec); whereas it shows more than 8 (m/sec) in the levels above 500 hPa; (3) but the meridional wind V-component has less biases in the lower troposphere; (4) the humidity parameters agrees well with the desire accuracy along with the rainfall etc; (5) the meteogram of surface parameters has high correlation coefficient with the desired accuracy. The NCMRWF medium range products have been validated through the observation or ground truth in the best possible way. Index Terms- Space-launch, wind-shear, Forecast, Modeling, Monsoon and Winter

I. FEATURES OF SHAR CENTRE 2.1 Geographical Location HAR centre is located in Sriharikota which is a spindle-

shaped island on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh closer to the equator and with sea on the eastern side. It has successfully launched several Indian and foreign satellites. Being closer to equator benefits eastward launches and rotation of the earth provides an extra little boost, so it requires less fuel. In addition SHAR has also evolved with better rail and road connectivity

apart from sea-lane accessibility to move heavy equipment. The Bay of Bengal on the eastern side acts as a safety buffer to avoid human causalities in case of accidents. The SHAR centre has the facilities for launch vehicle integration, launch operations, range operations comprising telemetry etc. The SHAR centre has two launch pads called first launch pad (FLP) and second launch pad (SLP). From the first launch pad the rocket launching operations of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) are being carried out. From the second launch pad the rocket launching operations of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) are being carried out. 2.2 Available Meteorological Observations and their significance Weather and weather forecasts are very critical during various stages of a launch. SHAR island receives rainfall during summer and winter monsoon seasons, but heavy rain fall events occurs only in October and November, thus many clear days are available in a year for out-door static tests and launching. Beginning from the selection of launch site and design phase of the launch vehicle weather factors, parameters and weather phenomena are required to ensure a safe launch. Meteorological bulletins provide a long term climatological mean trends of daily meteorology observations, accurate now-casting, short range and long range weather forecasting over the launch station applicable for various phases of launch operations. SHAR is equipped with various observation platforms some of them are Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), instruments like 100 m, 20 m Met towers, upper wind observations using hydrogen or helium filled balloons, wind profiler and Radio-sondes are used to derive upper wind data up to 40 km height, electric field mills both up-ward and down-ward looking, Micro-wave Radiometer, Doppler weather radar etc. The conventional observation from the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) Chennai and National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL) located at Gadanki are also used for the launch. Significant variations of upper winds within the short interval of 3 to 4 hours at critical heights are a matter of concern for launch vehicles. Particularly upper wind variations associated with unprecedented high wind shears impose high wind loads on the vehicle which can be catastrophic in nature. During the last one year, ISRO could accomplish 11 space missions1 (Annual Report 2017-18, Department of Space). In order to document/study the usefulness of the NCMRWF meteorological parameters we have undertaken the five recent

S

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space mission launches which were conducted in the summer and the winter periods. The information about the date of launch, PSLV/GSLV launches, payload, launch pad, period of launch

seasons like winter, summer, monsoon onset phase, monsoon active phase, etc are given in the Table-1.

Table 1--- Recent five Launches selected during the year 2017 and 2018 at SHAR No Date Mission Primary

Payload Launch Pad Launch Season

1 12 Jan 2018 PSLVC40 CARTOSAT-2F First Launch Pad Winter season 2 31 Aug 2017 PSLVC 39 IRNSS-1H Second Launch Pad Vigorous phase of

monsoon 3 23 Jun 2017 PSLVC 38 CARTOSAT-2E First Launch Pad Active phase of monsoon 4 05 Jun 2017 GSLV Mk-III GSAT-19 Second Launch Pad Onset phase of monsoon 5 05 May 2017 GSLV-F09 GSAT-9 Second Launch Pad Pre monsoon season

The evaluation/verification has been carried out for all days of prediction (24hrs to 120hrs); however for brevity in this paper the results of only 24 hrs, 48 hrs and 72 hrs forecasts are discussed. The present study confines to the time period from April 2017 to January 2018 and NCMRWF’s main Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model: NCMRWF’s Unified Model (NCUM) and its regional variant. The following sections provide a brief description of adopted methodology and the numerical model involved at NCMRWF; the datasets were generated and used; and case studies of three PSLV and two GSLV launches since April 2017. The study concludes with comparison of NCUM’s performance against observations.

II. METHODOLOGY AND OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY NCMRWF provides weather forecast/advisories with the operational analysis and forecast system on daily basis to SHAR for space launch operations with lead time of five to ten days at an interval of 12 hrs. The medium range forecasts are routinely sent to SHAR without any human intervention. NCUM is a global analysis and forecast system adapted from the UK Met Office. The NCUM data assimilation process combines the observations with model guess-forecast to obtain the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, known as analysis, based on which the forecasts are made. The data assimilation system at NCMRWF runs at six hourly cycle and produces four analysis valid at 00, 06 12 and 18 UTC. The medium range scale of ten day forecast is based on 00 UTC analysis and five day forecast based 12 UTC analysis are produced routinely and archived. NCUM has been used for real-time numerical weather prediction with the latest up-gradation packages4 Rajaopal et al., (2012) It is high resolution global model providing forecasts at 17 km grid. The forecasts for the location 820N, 13.50E are being generated on daily basis with this 00 UTC analysis and sent to SHAR station. Major components of the NCUM data assimilation system include: (1) observation processing system which prepares the observations for the assimilation (2) hybrid 4D-Var, which produce the atmospheric analysis and (3) the NCUM model which generates short and medium range forecasts. Details of the model resolution and the forecast length of various NCUM configurations used at NCMRWF are given in the web page4 (Rakhi et. al., 2016). NCUM is used for real-time

numerical weather prediction and is operational at NCMRWF. The meteorological parameters which are being sent to the SHAR centre on a daily basis in the scale of medium range and are made available through the ftp (ftp://ftp.ncmrwf.gov.in/pub/outgoing/SHAR). These guidelines with reference to various weather parameters are necessary for a safe take-off and completion of the launch process. The weather launch commit criteria are checked by the NWP-expert team members. One of the author of this paper is the chairman of the above mentioned expert team. The final weather clearances are provided at T-30 minutes to proceed with the launch. Generally the launch process from the take-off to injection of the payload into designated orbit covers about ~20 -30 minutes. Most of the launch campaign operations include outdoor movements and safety demand an hour to about six hours weather clearance. This requires a regular weather watch and call for weather advisories for safe and uninterrupted operations without any false alarms. The SHAR has a separate launch pad for launching sounding rockets. The centre also provides the necessary launch base infrastructure for sounding rockets of ISRO and for assembly, integration, etc. Regular weather forecast bulletins are issued for 24 hrs and 48 hrs are taken as a broad guideline. Issue of severe weather warnings to launch pad may take a call for a break to vacate the launch pad for the sake of personnel safety. This covers phenomena like thunderstorms, sea breeze and local terrain induced effects etc. Weather advisories play a very crucial role in the space launch program to the extent of even taking final; launch “Go/No GO” decision. The following section of this paper deal with the synoptic weather situation prevailed on the date of launch, the name of the parameters forecasted, their biases when compared with the observations, and along with the NCUM verifying analysis etc

III. DATA AND METHODS OF EVALUATION This result of this paper depends upon the following data sets mainly obtained from NCMRWF analysis and forecasts system. The NCUM operational global model analysis (NCUM-A) is considered as base/reference line; the subsequent forecasts made with the above analysis at the interval of 24 hrs (NCUM1), 48 hrs (NCUM2), 72 hrs (NCUM3) are also used here. The

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NCUM-R is Regional high resolution model over Indian domain which covers an area 5-40°N ~65-100°E was also employed. For ground-truth data Radiosonde-Rawinwinds (RSRW) observations in TEMP format which is denoted as OBS in this paper has been used. The balloon ascent time has been taken close to the time of launch for computation purpose. Thus summarize, the following datasets were used in this paper: (1) NCUM-A: Analysis of the NCUM; (2) NCUM-1: The 24 hrs forecasts made from NCUM-A, (3) NCUM-3: The 72 hrs forecasts made from NCUM-A, (4) NCUM-R: The forecasts have been made from high resolution regional model which is nearest to the time of launch of the satellite; (5) Ground truth data like AWS/MST Radar/profiler etc from NARL, Gadanki and through the mosdac/SAC and (6) Weekly weather report for Tamil Nadu obtained from Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai etc The Figure-1 describes: (a) the differences between the observed geo-potential height (gpm) and the above models at various pressure levels (hPa); (b) the amount of Relative Humidity (%) from analysis and other forecasts at standard pressure levels (hPa); (c) the value of the zonal wind-U (m/sec) component from analysis and other forecasts at standard pressure levels (hPa); (d) the value of the meridional wind-V (m/sec) component from

analysis and other forecasts at standard pressure levels (hPa); (f) the meteogram for the SHAR location at Sriharikota; and (g) the cloud motion winds derived from INSAT-3D on the date of launch. Similarly, the Figure 2, Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5 correspond to 31 August 2017, 23 June 2017, 5 June 2017 and 5 May 2017, respectively. The evaluation/verification has been carried out for all days of prediction (24hrs to 120hrs); however for brevity in the figures the results of only 24 hrs and 72 hrs forecasts are shown.

IV. RESULTS OF CASE STUDIES This section presents the case studies for the selected three PSLV and two GSLV launches along the prevailing meteorological conditions at the time of the launch. It presents as a brief performance of the above selected models. The launches are chosen in various seasons occurred during the year 2017 and 2018. The seasons are pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter monsoon periods. 5.1 PSLV-C40/Cartosat-2 Launch on 12 Jan 2018 Results On 12 Jan 2018 India's Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C40) was launched successfully2 (Annual Report 2017-18) which carried Cartosat-2 Series Satellite for earth observation and 30 co-passenger satellites. So far, PSLV had successfully launched 51 Indian satellites. The PSLV-C40 mission was launched from the FLP of SDSC-SHAR, Sriharikota. The lift-off of PSLV-C40 was at 0929 IST (UTC+0530). The fourth stage of PSLV C40 fired twice for short durations to achieve a polar orbit of 365 km height in which India’s MicroSat was successfully separated. During the second week of January 2018, the Northeast monsoon rains ceased over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. A trough of low at mean sea level ran from Maldives area to North Maharashtra coast during this period. Light to moderate north-easterlies/easterlies winds prevailed in the lower tropospheric levels over the southern peninsula. The winds were easterlies or north-easterlies from surface to 500 hPa and above which they were south-easterlies over the SHAR region. The minimum temperatures were above normal at a few places over the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during the period; 11 to 13 January and one or two places thereafter. Rainfall occurred at a few places over the Northern part of Tamil Nadu and southern part of Andhra Pradesh on 11 Jan and at few isolated places on 12 and 13 January and subsequently dry weather prevailed during this period of launch.

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Figure 1 (e) Cloud motion winds from INSAT-3D valid for 00 UTC of 12 Jan 2018 In the Figure-1(a), the differences in the geo-potential height from the observation were computed for global model analysis, global model forecasts and regional model forecasts separately. At lower levels the model had positive 1-5 (gpm) error; subsequently the error grew up to tropopause level then the error become negative above the tropopause consistently. From the Figure 1(a), it can be seen that NCUM-3 has the least error at the same time the NCUM-R has large error at different pressure levels from surface. It was also noted that the model errors are within the acceptable limit when compared with other leading operational atmospheric models. The reason/cause for the large error in the regional model has to be diagnosed. The Relative Humidity-RH (see Figure 1 (b)) was around 80 % at the time of launch then gradually it reduced up to 500 hPa height, then it started increasing; these values are within the cut off value as far as the humidity parameter is concerned in the lower and upper atmosphere. The errors in zonal and meridional wind components (see Figures 1 (c) and (d) ) are within ± 2-4 (m/sec) limit which happens to be the best and reliable statistics over the tropical regions, thus the flow pattern, which is crucial for space launches, is well predicted to avoid any unforeseen wind shear loads on the launch vehicle. 5.2 PSLV-C39/IRNSS-1H Launch on 31 August 2017 Results The PSLV-C39 mission was carrying IRNSS-1H Navigation satellite and it was launched on 31 August 2017. According to ISRO Annual Report 2016-17), this mission was a rare failure. The PSLV-C39 lift-off was at 1900 IST and it was normal in all the launch activities except the heat shield separation. During the month of August the rainfall activity over the country as a whole was below normal. The month of August 2017 was the fourth warmest with respect to the mean temperature since the 1901. No intense low pressure system was formed over the Indian region during this month, however two well marked low pressure areas was formed over the North West Bay of Bengal, one low pressure during 18-22 August and the other during 27 Aug - 2 Sep. The latter system was vigorous and it caused active south west monsoon conditions over some parts of central and peninsular India. On 31 August a trough at sea level chart ran from north coastal

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Andhra Pradesh to Comorin area across the southern coastal Andhra Pradesh and Northern costal Tamil Nadu. On 31 August the observed winds were north-westerly at 850 hPa and due easterly at 200 hPa pressure levels over this SHAR region. An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over southwest bay off southern Sri-Lankan coast and extended up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. The differences in the geo-potential height from observation were computed and plotted here for global model analysis, global model forecasts and regional model forecasts. In the lower level the model had 5-15 gpm positive error; subsequently the error grew up to tropopause level then it became negative above the tropopause consistently (see Figure 2 (a)). As seen in the figure, NCUM-3 has the least error while the NCUM-R exhibits largest error at different pressure levels from surface. Thus it is concluded that the model errors are within the acceptable limit when compared with the other leading modeling centers of the world. The reason/cause for the large error in the regional model has to be diagnosed.

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Figure 2 (c) The Zonal Wind (m/sec) valid for 12 UTC of 31 Aug 2017

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Figure 2 (e) Cloud Motion winds from INSAT-3D valid for 12 UTC of 31 Aug 2017

The zonal and meridional wind components have error within ± 2-6 (m/sec) limit. The Relative Humidity-RH during this active monsoon season was about 60-80 % then gradually reduces up to 400 hPa height then it starts decreasing. 5.3 PSLV-C38/CARTOSAT-2E Launch on 23 June 2017 Results On 23 Jun 2017 at 0929 IST, ISRO successfully launched 40th flight PSLV-C38 by injecting CartoSat-2 series satellite along with 30 satellites into their designated sun-synchronous polar orbits from SHAR, Sriharikota.

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Figure 3 (e) The cloud imagery from Kalpana-1 valid for 09:44 UTC of 23 Jun 2017

A trough at sea level was extended from coastal Andhra Pradesh to southern peninsula across the interiors of Tamil Nadu on 23 Jun and across coastal Tamil Nadu on 24 Jun. It extended to Comorian area across coastal Tamil Nadu on 25 Jun. Mainly the winds were westerly/northwesterly at the lower and middle levels, which enhanced RH values to 70-85 %. Rainfall occurred at a few places over Andhra and Tamil Nadu on 23 - 24 June. Northeasterly/easterly winds prevailed at upper level. From the Figure-3 the following conclusions are drawn: (a) the geo-potential height differences were in the positive direction ie 5-20 gpm up to the 400 hPa pressure level. (b) the least error was seen with NCUM-3 when compared to NCUM-R. (c) The NCUM-1 exhibited mixed response from the surface to upper tropopause.

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Figure 4 (e) The Meteogram (48 hrs fcst) valid for 12 UTC of 05 Jun 2017

5.4 GSLV/Mk III GSAT-19 Launch on 5 June 2017 Results

The GSLV Mk III (also referred as Launch vehicle Mark 3 or LMV3 or GSLV-III) was launched from SHAR’s SLP on 5 June and was successfully placed at GSAT-19 satellite to a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit at 1730 IST. During the first week of June 2017 an off-shore trough at mean sea level was seen from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast. In the onset phase of monsoon i.e., 4-5 June an upper air circulation lay over the east-central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood and was present and it extended between 1.5 km and 3.1 km above mean sea level. An east west shear zone ran roughly along SHAR latitude. One more upper air cyclonic circulation which lay over west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha was noticed on the day of launch. Rainfall occurred at isolated places over the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during the launch period. At surface and near-surface levels all the models predicted has very less negative height values; subsequently the difference reached positive values up to 700 hPa level. In the middle and upper troposphere the differences in values were in the range of 5-20 (gpm). In this launch also it was noted that the NCUM-3 has the least error while NCUM-R had the largest error in the

different pressure levels from surface. The reason/cause for the large error in the regional model is to be diagnosed. The zonal and meridional wind components have an error within ± 3 -7 (m/sec) range which is the best and reliable statistics. It is surprising to know that the NCUM-1 has large deviation values than NCUM-3 in the meridional wind component. This seems to be the valid result for the flow pattern with reference to the space launch activities over the tropical region. The RH was observed as 70 % at the time of launch, then gradually it reduces up to 400 hPa then it starts increasing; these values are within the cut off value as far as the humidity parameter is concerned in the lower and upper atmosphere. These surface observations can be used for model derived parameters. For the SHAR location Sriharikota the meteogram based on the initial condition of 3 Jun (as shown in Figure-4 (e) ), it can be noted that the 24-hrs forecasts valid for 5 Jun indicates sea level pressure at 1004 hPa, temperature at 300C, RH at 75%, rain as 0 mm. These predicted valued are almost near to the conventional observation made at SHAR location. 5.5 GSLV- F09 GSAT-9 Launch on 5 May 2017 Results GSLV-F09 was launched on 5 May at 1725 IST from the second launch pad at SHAR space port in India. GSLV-F09 launched the south Asia Satellite GSAT-9 into the

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geosynchronous transfer orbit. GSLV-F09 mission is the eleventh flight of India’s Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle and fourth consecutive flight with the indigenous cryogenic upper stage. Chief synoptic features and its associated weather during the pre-monsoon season were as following. On 5 May an upper air trough was seen from Madhya Maharashtra to Comorin area across interior Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu and extended up to 0.9 km above mean sea level. An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu at 1.5 km above mean sea level was observed on 6 May 2017. The maximum temperature was remarkably above normal at one or two places over the Andhra state on 5 and 6 May. Rainfall occurred at isolated places during the launch day. The differences in the geo-potential height from observation were computed and plotted as shown in Figure-5 from global model analysis, global model forecasts and regional model forecasts. From the surface to tropopause level, the models

exhibit 5-15 gpm of positive error; and subsequently the error increased in the upper layers, within the acceptable threshold for a successful launch again in terms of absolute error, NCUM-3 performed better than NCUM-R at various pressure levels. The computational error in zonal and meridional wind components is within ± 2-8 (m/sec) The RH near surface during the pre-monsoon season was observed to be less than 78 % and gradually reduces with height in all the forecasts. The Figure-5(e) depicts the Tephigram (T-Φ) diagram obtained from NARL. The Tephigram describes the moist-thermodynamic aspects of the atmosphere in weather analysis and forecasts made by regional model which is operational at NARL. This diagram shows the vertical distribution of RH and varies with 80 - 20 %, the difference between the dry bulb ambient temperature and dew point temperature was in the range of 5-80C, the lower level winds are south-easterly. NCMRWF also forecasted these variable operationally in all the above five cases

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Figure 5 (e) The Tephigram valid for 12 UTC of 05 May 2017

International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 8, Issue 4, April 2018 213 ISSN 2250-3153

http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.4.2018.p7628 www.ijsrp.org

V. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS From the above comparison study for the selected launches it is seen that the forecast and analysis products from NCMRWF is useful for ISRO in making Go/No-Go decision. The computational error in zonal and meridional wind components is within ± 2-8 (m/sec). These predicted values are almost near to the conventional observation made at SHAR location. The NCUM-3 has the least error while at the same time the NCUM-R has the largest error in the different pressure levels from surface. The NCUM-3 ie 72 hrs forecast fields performed better than NCUM-1 ie 24 hrs forecasts fields. The reason/cause for the large error in the regional model is to be diagnosed. The evaluation procedure will be conducted NCUM-A against NCUM-1, NCUM-2, NCUM-3 and NCUM-5 in near future. The NCMRWF will be providing forecasts for the space launch activities in future with state of art atmospheric models along with Ocean coupled packages; these valid will validated in due course of time.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Dr EN Rajagopal, Head, NCMRWF and Dr AK Mitra, BIMSTEC for providing encouraging and guiding to write this paper. The lead author is thankful to Scientists Dr M.N.Raghavendra

Sreevathsa, Dr Pasant Mali and Dr Prithi Sharma for the valuable comments provided time to time and validating/evaluating the paper at the time documentation. Thanks are due to NCMRWF colleagues, RMC Chennai Scientists and NARL scientists who have provided inputs at very short notice.

REFERENCES [1] Annual Report 2016-2017, Government of India, Department of Space [2] Annual Report 2017-2018, Government of India, Department of Space [3] Rajagopal E.N. , G.R. Iyengar, John P. George, Munmun Das Gupta, Saji

Mohandas, Renu Siddharth, Anjari Gupta, Manjusha Chourasia, V.S. Prasad, Aditi, Kuldeep Sharma and Amit Ashish, 2012: Implementation of Unified Model based Analysis-Forecast System at NCMRWF, Technical Report, NMRF/TR/2/2012

[4] Rakhi R, A. Jayakumar, M. N. R. Sreevathsa and E. N. Rajagopal 2016: Implementation and upgradation of NCUM in Bhaskara HPC. NMRF/TR/03/2016, May 2016

AUTHORS First Author – D. Rajan, NCMRWF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UttarPradesh, India, email: [email protected] Second Author – CM. Kishtawal, SAC, Department of Space, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India