USE OF INDICATORS IN POLICY CONTEXT

BY

DR. WILLIAM P. O’HARE

The Annie E Casey Foundation(WOHARE@AECF.ORG)

Child Poverty and Disparities: Public Policies and Social Justice

Conference

Cairo, January 20, 2009

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY “INDICATORS OF CHILD WELL-BEING”

PROBLEMS OF LANGUAGE

• INDICATORS

• MEASURES

• STATISTICS

• VARIABLES

• DATA

• CONDITIONS

MY DEFINITION OF AN INDICATOR

“THERE MUST BE WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT THAT IF THE VALUE OF AN INDICATOR GOES UP OR GOES DOWN, THAT IS A GOOD THING OR A BAD

THING.”

EXAMPLES

• INFANT MORTALITY AND CHILD POVERTY ARE INDICATORS OF WELL-BEING

• PERCENT OF A POPULATION IN A GENDER, RACE OR ETHNIC GROUP IS NOT

• PERCENT RECEIVING PUBLIC BENEFITS?– PHILOSOPHY– MEANING – MORE POOR OR MORE HELP?

MANY WAYS TO USE CHILD INDICATORS

• USE OF SINGLE INDICATOR LIKE POVERTY

• CLUSTER OF INDICATORS IN ONE DOMAIN – LIKE HEALTH

• USE OF MULTIPLE INDICATORS ASSESSING OVERALL CHILD WELL-BEING – SEE INNOCENTI REPORT BY JOHNATHAN BRADSHAW

USING INDICATORS IN POLICY ARENA

• TRYING TO REACH POWERFUL PEOPLE/ELECTED OFFICIALS

• THESE PEOPLE HAVE LOTS OF DEMANDS ON THEIR TIME AND ATTENTION

• CHILD ADVOCATES DO NOT HAVE

– VOTES

– MONEY

• NEED PUBLIC ATTENTION - MEDIA

WHAT IS THE POLICY ARENA ?

• VERY SPECIFIC POLICY OR PROGRAM

VERSUS

• BROADER USES LIKE SHAPING THE POLICY-MAKING CLIMATE

• CHANGE PRIORITIES OF PEOPLE IN POWER• CREATING A CLIMATE FOR CHANGE• RAISING AWARENESS

QUESTIONS?

WHAT IMPACTS CHILD WELL-BEING?

• PUBLIC POLICY

• INCOME/ECONOMICS

• DEMOGRAPHICS (RACE/URBANIZATION)

• CULTURE

TWO STUDIES

•KIDS COUNT CHILD WELL-BEING ACROSS STATES

• CHILD POVERTY ACROSS COUNTRIES

Values of Indicators in Best and Worst StatesBest State Worst StateNew Hampshire Mississippi

Percent Low birth-weight babies 7 11.8

Infant Mortality rate 5.3 11.3Child Death rate 8 33

Teen Death rate 55 101

teen Birth Rate 18 61High school Dropout rate 4 10

Percent Idle teens 4 12

Children with underemployed parents 26 42

Child Poverty Rate 10 30

Percent in Single parent Families 25 45

WHAT EXPLAINS STATE DIFFERENCES?

• 90% OF VARIANCE EXPLAINED• MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE

– PERCENT BLACK

• SECOND MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE– NET WORTH (ASSETS)

• OTHER IMPORTANT MEASURES – WELFARE PAYMENTS/STATE EXPENDITURE– HEALTH INSURANCE– FAMILY INCOME– FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION– PERCENT HISPANIC

2 CAVEATS

– PUBLIC POLICIES NOT MEASURED WELL – NOT ONE HOLISTIC MEASURE

– STUDY SHOULD FOCUS ON WELL-BEING OF LOW-INCOME KIDS BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE PUBLIC POLICY IS MORE IMPORTANT

Child poverty before and after cash benefits 2005

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Child poverty rate pretransfer 2005 Child poverty rate post-transfer 2005

WHAT IS POVERTY?

• WORLDWIDE MOVEMENT FROM NARROW CONCEPTION TO BROADER CONCEPTION (CHILD WELL-BEING)

• TWO STREAMS OF THOUGHT– BEYOND ECONOMICS– BEYOND SURVIVAL

BEYOND ECONOMICS MEASURING POVERTY

• CASH INCOME ONLY– DOLLAR A DAY – THIRD WORLD– PERCENT OF MEDIAN INCOME THRESHOLD –

EUROPE – ABSOLUTE THRESHOLD – U.S.

• BROADER CONCEPTIONS– NOT JUST GNP - DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL DOLLARS

IMPORTANT– OVERALL WELL-BEING– SOCIAL EXCLUSION– DOMAINS OF CHILD WELL-BEING

Examples of Indicators of Material situation

• Child deprivation – Lacking car, own bedroom, holidays last

year, a computer – Lacking a desk, quiet for study, a computer,

calculator, dictionary, text books– Less than ten books in the home

• Parental worklessness• COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTICS

BEYOND SURVIVAL

• EARLIER WORK LOOKED ONLY AT MORTALITY

• NOW MANY OTHER FACTORS TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION – CHILD HEALTH– EDUCATION– OPPORTUNITIES

• THE NEW EMPHASIS IS REFLECTED IN MOVEMENT FOR DHS TO MICS

QUESTIONS?

USES OF INDICATORSIN THE POLICY CONTEXT

1. Description

2. Monitoring

3. Setting Goals

4. Outcomes-based accountability

5. Evaluation

6. Distribution of Funds

DESCRIPTION

• TYPICALLY INVOLVES SOME SORT OF COMPARISONS

• VERY WIDELY USED WITH CHILD INDICATORS– RAISES THE TOPIC IN PUBLIC WAY– LIKELY TO INCREASE CHILDREN AS A

PRIORITY– INFLUENCES POLICYMAKERS

INDIRECTLY

MONITORING

• REPEATED MEASUREMENT OVER TIME– INDICATES IF THINGS ARE GETTING

BETTER OR WORSE FOR CHILDREN– CAN ISOLATE WHAT AREAS ARE GETTING

BETTER AND WHAT AREAS ARE GETTING WORSE

– MAY CREATE PROBLEMS• IF YOU SAY HEALTH IS GETTING WORSE,

HEALTH MINISTER WILL NOT BE HAPPY.

SETTING GOALS

• USUALLY DONE WITH ONE INDICATOR

• GREAT BRITAIN CHILD POVERTY GOAL IS A GOOD EXAMPLE

• U.S. CONTEXT SIMILAR --- BUT HIGHLIGHTS LIMITATIONS OF THE WAY THE INDICATOR IS MEASURED.

Using Indicators for Goal Setting

• In March 1999 in a speech at Toynbee Hall Prime Minister Tony Blair announced, “Our historic aim, that ours is the first generation to end child poverty forever… It’s a 20-year mission, but I believe it can be done.” He also said that it was the Government’s intention to monitor progress towards that end.

• MILLINNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

1. ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER

2. ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION

3. PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY

4. REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY

5. IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH

6. COMBAT HIV/AIDS

7. ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY

8. DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT

EVALUATION

• USED TO DETERMINE IF A POLICY IS WORKING

• DIFFICULT BECAUSE MANY FACTORS TYPICALLY AFFECT ONE INDICATOR

OUTCOMES BASED ACCOUNTABILITY

• TIES TRENDS IN INDICATORS TO SANCTIONS AND/OR REWARDS– NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND ACT IN U.S.

DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC FUNDS

• IN U.S. $400+ BILLION DISTRIBUTED EACH YEAR BASED ON STATISTICAL DATA FROM THE CENSUS BUREAU

QUESTIONS?