USE OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS TO SUPPORT FOREIGN ANIMAL DISEASE EMERGENCY EXERCISES

L I N D S EY H O L MST R OMV E T ER I NARY E P I D E MI OLOG I S T, M O D E L I NG T E A MU. S . D E PA RT MENT O F A G R I CU LT U R EA N I MAL A N D P L A NT H E A LT H I N S P EC T I ON S E RV I C EV E T ER I NARY S E RV I C ESO C TO BER 2 1 , 2 0 1 8

2

Incorporated the exercise scenario into the national FMD model

Provided disease spread options from the scripted, infected farms

3

EXERCISE * EXERCISE * EXERCISE

4

21 outbreak days

EXERCISE * EXERCISE * EXERCISE

5

14 premises infected pre-exercise, 9 of which were ARMAR scripted

6

9 premises infected during exercise play, 1 of which was ARMAR scripted

EXERCISE * EXERCISE * EXERCISE

7

Disease spread from direct and indirect movements and local spread represented

Daily outbreak situation responsive to exercise play

EXERCISE * EXERCISE * EXERCISE

ARMAR script: detected premises

Detection of Premises

ARMAR Exercise

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Tracing from Detected Premises

Colorado

Premises in 10km zones around detected premises, based on USDA NASS data

Colorado

South Dakota

California

Wisconsin

Minnesota Montana

11

FMD vaccine requests

Vaccine strategy, logistics, and resource capacity

Lindsey HolmstromVeterinary Epidemiologist, Modeling TeamU.S. Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceVeterinary ServicesLindsey.K.Holmstrom@usda.gov