US Weekly Kickstart - Scholar and Feminist Onlinesfonline.barnard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/US... · 2012. 5. 21. · Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1

March 30, 2012

United States

US Weekly Kickstart Portfolio Strategy Research

Five client questions about equity valuation and the market’s 2007 peak

Equities are an attractive long-term investment opportunity based on performance following periods of poor returns, valuation, and

equity risk premium. However, path matters and our price targets reflect short-term tactical risks. We believe equity valuation will

remain below average over the next year due to stagnant economic growth and high uncertainty. Both views can comfortably co-

exist in the context of different investment horizons. Last week we published three US Equity Views reports on valuation of equities

vs. bonds, dividends, and S&P 500 today vs. 2007 peak. This week, we address the questions clients raised most frequently.

Performance

The S&P 500 was up 0.8% this week. Health Care

was the best-performing sector (+2.2%) while

Telecommunication Services was the worst-

performing sector (-2.1%). We expect the S&P 500

will trade at 1325 by mid-year (-5.6%) and 1250 in

12 months (-10.9%).

S&P 500 Earnings

Our top-down EPS forecasts of $100 and $106 for

2012 and 2013 reflect +3% and +7% growth,

respectively. Bottom-up consensus forecasts a 9%

increase in 2012 to $106, and a 13% increase in

2013 to $119.

Valuation

Top-down, S&P 500 trades at an NTM P/E of

14.0X. Bottom-up, it trades at an NTM P/E of 13.2X

and an LTM P/B of 2.3X.

Sector views and performance

Our recommended sector weightings generated

-4 bp of alpha this week and -29 bp in 2012 YTD.

US Portfolio Strategy Baskets

Our recommended trades vs. SPX: Dividend

Growth (GSTHDIVG): +0.1%, High Quality

(GSTHQUAL): flat, Cyclically Attractive Risk-

Reward (GSTHCARR): -0.5%, and High Sharpe

Ratio (GSTHSHRP): -0.7%.

Domestic Sales (GSTHAINT) vs. International

Sales (GSTHINTL): +0.1%.

S&P 500 stock performance this week

Leaders: RHT, JNPR, S, FMC, and WLP.

Laggards: APOL, SHLD, BBY, NBR, and FSLR.

Note: The ability to trade these baskets will depend upon market

conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time

of trade.

David J. Kostin

(212) 902-6781 [email protected] Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Stuart Kaiser, CFA


Amanda Sneider, CFA


Peter Lewis


Ben Snider


Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

March 30, 2012 United States

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Conversations we are having with clients: Valuation questions and answers

Last week, Peter Oppenheimer and our European Portfolio Strategy

team published "The Long Good Buy; the Case for Equities" in which

they conclude equities are attractive for three reasons: (1) Periods of poor

real returns in equities tend to be followed by periods of significantly higher

returns; (2) equity valuation appears low versus bonds; and (3) an elevated

equity risk premium (ERP) supports a long-term positive view for stocks.

We agree with the long-term thesis. Investors willing to position for a

normalized growth and risk environment over the next decade should

interpret high ERP and low implied growth as an investment opportunity.

However, path matters and our price targets reflect short-term tactical

risks. We believe equity valuation will remain below average over the next

year due to stagnant economic growth and high uncertainty. Both views can

comfortably co-exist in the context of different investment horizons.

S&P 500 currently trades above fair value on a variety of metrics

although the index is attractively valued relative to bond yields given

the low interest rate environment. Equity investors fall into many

categories and we believe views are currently most differentiated between

equity-focused vs. cross-asset investors and short- vs. long-term investment

horizons. Investors that actively invest in multiple asset classes and/or can

look past near-term risks are generally more positive on US equities.

Last week we published three US Equity Views reports on valuation of

equities vs. bonds, dividends, and S&P 500 today vs. 2007 peak. We

address below questions clients raised most frequently:

Q: How do global markets currently trade relative to their previous peaks?

A: S&P 500 trades 10% below its 2007 peak, Asia-Pacific ex-Japan is 26%

below, Europe is 35% below and Japan is 53% below. TOPIX is 70% below

its 1989 level. The level of earnings has recovered and stands at new highs

in both US and Asia-Pacific ex-Japan. However, earnings are well below

2007 peaks in Europe (15%) and Japan (50%).

In contrast, the expected earnings growth rates increased in Japan (13% to

50%) and are unchanged in Europe at 8%. Forward EPS growth rates have

declined in US (13% to 9%) and Asia-Pacific ex-Japan (17% to 13%).

Every region has de-rated and remains below 2007 peak levels. Asia Pacific

ex-Japan has experienced the largest P/E de-rating despite having the

largest forward EPS growth. Earnings grew by 18% but the forward multiple

fell by 34% to 11.4x from 17.3x. MXAPJ is 26% below its 2007 peak.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is 35% below its 2007 peak. Performance can be

attributed to both multiple contraction and lower earnings given the

expected forward earnings growth has remained unchanged.

In Japan, TOPIX sits 53% below the 2007 high. The collapse in earnings,

which are 50% below the 2007 “peak,” and multiple contraction of 28% are

negative impacts to the Japan market level. Relative to the 1989 peak,

earnings are flat, but the multiple has compressed by 73%.

Q: Do buybacks and issuance affect 2007 and 2012 EPS comparisons?

A: S&P 500 EPS is the sum of all constituent earnings divided by the index

divisor. Company-level earnings are calculated as the EPS of the firm

multiplied by the company’s float-adjusted share count. The earnings

contribution of a firm earning $2 per share with 50 shares is the same as a

company earning $1 per share with 100 shares. The divisor is also adjusted

on share changes, and this can affect index-level EPS. We can remove this

by calculating earnings growth rather than EPS growth. S&P 500 LTM

earnings are 9% above the 2007 level while EPS grew 6%.

Q: Earnings and margins recovered. Where are sales relative to peak?

A: S&P 500 trailing four quarter EPS and margins peaked in 2Q 2007 but

sales, both including and excluding Financials and Utilities, peaked 15

months later in 3Q 2008. Full-year 2011 sales excluding Financials and

Utilities are 16% above 2Q 2007 levels but 1% below 2008 peak levels.

Q: Isn’t EPS growth just the result of higher margins from cost cutting?

A: Comparison of full-year 2011 earnings, sales, and margins versus 2007

peak suggests higher sales, not margin expansion, drove the majority of

EPS growth. This is because sales and earnings (excluding Financials and

Utilities) peaked together in 3Q 2008. Full-year 2011 sales remain just below

2008 levels, but earnings reached new highs, driven by margin expansion.

Q: Despite the valuation-driven rally, the S&P 500 trades below the 10-

year average P/E. How is the market valued using other metrics?

A: With a forward P/E of 13.2x, S&P 500 trades one standard deviation below

its 10-year average. S&P 500 trades between 0.5 and 1 standard deviations

attractive using most valuation metrics we track (see Exhibit 4). Historical

average valuation would imply a rise in S&P 500 of about 14% to 1600.

However, we don’t view mean reversion as appropriate given margins have

started to fall from record levels and US GDP is growing below trend.



The charts we are watching: Global equity markets today vs. 2007 and S&P 500 valuation Exhibit 1: Global equity market earnings and valuation vs. their 2007 peaks as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 2: Attribution of global equity market index price changes since 2007as of March 29, 2012

Source: Factset and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Factset and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 3: Global equity index price levels relative to 2007 peaks as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 4: Current S&P 500 valuation vs. 10-year historical averages as of March 29, 2012

Source: Factset and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Compustat, FirstCall via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Peak 29-Mar-12LTM Expected P/E LTM Expected P/E

Sector EPS Growth NTM EPS Growth NTM

S&P 500 91 13 % 15.2 X 97 9 % 13.2 X

MXAPJ 29 17 17.3 34 13 11.4

Stoxx 600 27 8 13.7 23 8 10.5

TOPIX 79 13 20.3 39 50 14.6

TOPIX (since 1989) 50 8 53.5 39 50 14.6

Attribution of Index Price Change

EPS Expected Forward PriceSector Level Growth P/E Change

S&P 500 5 pp (2)pp (13)pp (10)%

MXAPJ 10 (1) (34) (26)

Stoxx 600 (11) (1) (23) (35)

TOPIX (32) 7 (28) (53)

TOPIX (since 1989) (5)pp 8 pp (73)pp (70)%

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Inde

xed

Per

form

ance

2007 Peak Level

S&P 500(-10%)

MXAPJ(-26%)

Stoxx 600(-35%)

TOPIX(-53%)

10-Year History Upside to

Standard Historical

Metric 29-Mar-12 Max Min Average Deviation Z-Score Average

EV / EBITDA 7.7 x 12.5 5.9 9.4 1.4 (1.3) 23 %

Trailing P/E 14.6 x 26.9 11.8 17.2 2.7 (1.0) 18

Forward P/E 13.2 x 20.2 10.8 14.8 1.7 (1.0) 12

Price / Book 2.3 x 3.4 1.5 2.6 0.4 (0.8) 15

PEG Ratio 1.1 x 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 (0.8) 10

FCF Yield 5.9 % 7.9 2.6 5.3 1.1 (0.6) 11

EV / Sales 1.4 x 2.1 0.9 1.6 0.2 (0.6) 8



S&P 500 Performance

Exhibit 5: S&P 500 sector performance over the last week

as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 6: S&P 500 price return and daily trading volume as of March 29, 2012

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.


Exhibit 7: S&P 500 sector performance over time as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 8: BEST and WORST performing S&P 500 STOCKS BY SECTOR as of March 29, 2012



(2.1)

(0.3)

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.3

2.2

0.8

(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Telecom Services

Energy

Industrials

Consumer Staples

Cons Discretionary

Materials

S&P 500

Financials

Utilities

Information Tech

Health Care

1-week Total Return (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

29-M

ar-1

0

29-J

un-1

0

29-S

ep-1

0

29-D

ec-1

0

29-M

ar-1

1

29-J

un-1

1

29-S

ep-1

1

29-D

ec-1

1

29-M

ar-1

2

Shares traded (billions)S&P

500

Pric

e Le

vel

S&P 500 daily trading volume (rhs)

S&P 500 daily price level (lhs)

S&P 500200-day

moving average

Total Return Percentage Change (%)1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD 12-Month

Information Tech 1 % 5 % 21 % 29 % 22 % 21 %

Financials 1 7 21 30 21 (2)

Cons Discretionary 1 4 15 26 15 18

Industrials 0 1 10 25 11 2

Materials 1 (0) 11 23 11 (3)

Health Care 2 4 8 18 8 16

Consumer Staples 1 3 4 14 5 17

Energy (0) (4) 3 18 3 (7)

Telecom Services (2) 1 2 9 2 5

Utilities 1 1 (3) 5 (2) 15

S&P 500 1 % 3 % 12 % 22 % 12 % 9 %

BEST STOCKS WORST STOCKSReturn (%) Return (%)

Sector Ticker 1-week YTD Ticker 1-week YTDCons Discr AMZN 6 % 18 % APOL (9)% (28)%Consumer Staples MKC 4 7 SVU (3) (26)Energy PXD 5 18 NBR (7) (1)Financials AIG 7 29 SCHW (4) 27Health Care WLP 8 9 THC (3) 1Industrials TXT 6 51 UNP (2) 2Info Tech RHT 19 49 FSLR (7) (26)Materials FMC 8 23 VMC (4) 8Telecom Services S 9 27 PCS (5) 6Utilities SCG 2 2 NRG (5) (13)

S&P 500 RHT 19 % 49 % APOL (9)% (28)%



S&P 500 Performance (cont’d)

Exhibit 9: TOP 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last week as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 10: BOTTOM 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last week as of March 29, 2012



Exhibit 11: TOP 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last week as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 12: BOTTOM 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last week as of March 29, 2012



3 3

3

3 3

3

3

3

4 8

0 2 4 6 8

Airlines

Communications Equipment

Residential REITs

Metal & Glass Containers

Industrial Gases

Health Care Distributors

Broadcasting

Brewers

Internet Retail

Managed Health Care


(7)

(6)

(4)

(4)

(3)

(3)(3)

(3)

(3)

(3)

(8) (6) (4) (2) 0

Education Services

Computer & Electronics Retail

Construction Materials

Oil & Gas Drilling

Health Care Facilities

Tires & Rubber

Real Estate Services

Footwear

Specialty Stores

Home Entertainment Software


Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Red Hat Inc. RHT Info Tech 19 49

Juniper Networks JNPR Info Tech 9 12

Sprint Nextel Corp. S Telecom Services 9 27

FMC Corp. FMC Materials 8 23

WellPoint Inc. WLP Health Care 8 9

UnitedHealth Group UNH Health Care 8 15

Humana Inc. HUM Health Care 8 5

Cigna Corp. CI Health Care 7 17

Coventry Health Care CVH Health Care 7 14

American Intl Group AIG Financials 7 29

S&P 500 Average 1 12

Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Apollo Group APOL Cons Discr (9) (28)

Sears Holdings SHLD Cons Discr (8) 113

Best Buy Inc. BBY Cons Discr (8) 6

Nabors Industries NBR Energy (7) (1)

First Solar FSLR Info Tech (7) (26)

Baker Hughes BHI Energy (6) (16)

NRG Energy NRG Utilities (5) (13)

MetroPCS Communications PCS Telecom Services (5) 6

Chesapeake Energy CHK Energy (5) 5

Alpha Natural Resources ANR Energy (5) (25)

S&P 500 Average 1 12



Earnings and Sales Exhibit 13: EARNINGS GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimates as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 14: SALES GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimates as of March 29, 2012



Exhibit 15: TOP-DOWN vs. BOTTOM-UP: Goldman Sachs vs. Consensus as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 16: TOP-DOWN vs. BOTTOM-UP: Sales and Margins as of March 29, 2012

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates. Source: Compustat, FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

2012E Earnings Per Share Growth Annual1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2012E 2013E

Information Technology 11 13 25 18 18 13Financials 18 14 2 21 13 14Industrials 13 8 13 17 12 14Materials (13) (5) 9 118 12 19Health Care 8 3 12 17 10 7S&P 500 6 5 7 20 9 13Consumer Discretionary (9) (1) 8 13 5 17Consumer Staples (2) 4 7 8 5 10Telecom Services (17) 2 (7) 38 2 19Energy 3 (7) (12) 28 1 12Utilities 1 (5) (1) 7 1 2

S&P 500 (ex-Financials) 3 3 8 19 9 12

2012E Sales Per Share Growth Annual1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2012E 2013E

Information Technology 10 10 11 8 10 8Energy 14 12 9 10 10 5Industrials 9 7 7 7 7 6S&P 500 7 6 6 6 6 5Materials 5 5 5 9 6 6Consumer Discretionary 4 4 6 6 5 6Consumer Staples 5 3 5 5 4 4Telecom Services 4 4 4 3 4 2Health Care 3 2 2 1 2 3

Contribution to EPS Annual earnings growth rates

GS Top-Down EPS Bottom-up GS Top-Down Bottom-Up

2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E

Telecom Services $3 $3 $2 $3 23 % 5 % 2 % 19 %

Information Technology 19 21 21 24 7 8 18 13

Energy 15 17 14 16 8 12 1 12

Health Care 12 13 13 14 5 3 10 7

Consumer Staples 9 10 10 11 2 3 5 10

Utilities 3 3 3 3 0 6 1 2

Industrials 9 10 11 12 (3) 3 12 14

Consumer Discretionary 8 9 10 11 (11) 5 5 17

Materials 2 3 4 4 (23) 22 12 19

S&P 500 ex-Financials 82 88 88 99 2 7 9 12

Financials 17 18 18 20 12 5 13 14

S&P 500 Operating EPS $100 $106 $106 $119 3 % 7 % 9 % 13 %

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

Goldman SachsPortfolio StrategyForecast

S&P 500 Net Profit Margin(trailing four quarters)

Bottom-up ConsensusForecast

8.8

5.9

3.8

4.7

Goldman Sachs ConsensusPortfolio Strategy Bottom-Up2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E

Sales Growth 3.3 % 4.9 % 6.2 % 5.3 %Margin Level 8.7 % 8.9 % 9.1 % 9.7 %

Margin Change (%) Y/Y (1) 2 3 7Margin Change (bp) Y/Y (12) 17 24 63



Revisions

Exhibit 17: EARNINGS and SALES REVISIONS Aggregate dollars % change, as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 18: Stocks with the most POSITIVE and NEGATIVE EPS REVISIONS as of March 29, 2012

Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.


Exhibit 19: S&P 500 1-Month EPS Revision Sentiment vs. 1-Month Return as of March 28, 2012

Exhibit 20: 1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by SECTOR as of March 28, 2012



EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E 12E 13E

Information Technology 0.8 % 1.6 % 4.4 % 5.3 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.7 % 2.4 %Energy 0.4 0.3 (4.2) (4.1) 3.2 (0.2) 8.2 7.5Financials 0.3 0.4 (3.3) (1.1) NM NM NM NMS&P 500 0.1 0.4 (1.4) (0.7) 0.7 0.1 1.7 1.7Health Care (0.0) (0.0) (1.5) (1.8) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5Utilities (0.1) (0.1) (1.6) (3.0) NM NM NM NMConsumer Staples (0.2) (0.1) (2.3) (2.3) (0.0) (0.1) 0.2 0.1Consumer Discretionary (0.2) 0.0 (1.4) (1.3) 0.2 0.1 (0.4) (0.4)Industrials (0.3) 0.0 (0.5) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3)Telecommunication Services (1.0) (0.3) (9.6) (6.4) (0.0) (0.0) 1.0 0.6Materials (1.5) (0.8) (7.1) (3.0) (0.2) (0.3) (1.1) (0.0)

POSITIVE 2012 EPS REVISIONS NEGATIVE 2012 EPS REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return

WDC 24 % 7 % 68 % 35 % CCL (23)% 6 % (38)% (3)%

LSI 17 (0) 38 43 WPX (17) 0 NM 1

DFS 14 10 17 36 CNX (17) (5) (37) (6)

APC 11 (8) 9 1 BHI (14) (19) (24) (15)

LEN 9 16 12 37 LUV (12) (6) (14) (2)

DNR 7 (9) 16 20 NUE (11) (2) (9) 8

EIX 7 2 2 2 CVC (11) 4 (22) 3

MPC 6 4 4 30 NRG (10) (8) (33) (14)

TSO 6 2 (4) 16 BTU (9) (15) (40) (9)

VLO 6 9 (4) 28 COG (8) (13) (40) (21)

S&P 500 0 % 3 % (1)% 12 % 0 % 3 % (1)% 12 %

(30)%

(20)%

(10)%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

(60)%

(40)%

(20)%

(0)%

20%

40%

60%

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

S&

P 500 M

onthly % Return1-

Mon

th R

evis

ion

Sen

timen

t

1-Month FY2 EPS Revision Sentiment (lhs)[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]

Price Performance (rhs)

S&P 500

(20)%

(15)%

(10)%

(5)%

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

Fina

ncia

ls

Info

Tec

h

Con

sum

er D

iscr

S&P

500

Indu

stria

ls

Hea

lth C

are

Con

sum

er S

tapl

es

Mat

eria

ls

Ener

gy

Util

ities

Tele

com

Ser

vice

s

Earn

ings

Sen

timen

t

1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by Sector[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]



Valuation

Exhibit 21: Aggregate valuation metrics for S&P 500 and sectors bottom-up consensus valuation, as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 22: Standard deviation vs. 10-year history (Z-Score) bottom-up consensus, as of March 29, 2012

Source: Compustat, FirstCall via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Source: Compustat, FirstCall via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 23: Historical NTM P/E and LTM P/B values for the S&P 500 aggregate bottom-up consensus valuation, as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 24: Top stocks by fastest 2012E earnings growth and lowest NTM P/E by sector, as of March 29, 2012

Source: Compustat, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.


EV/ Sales

EV/ EBITDA

Price/ Book

FCF Yield

PEG Ratio

NTM P/E

S&P 500 1.4x 7.7x 2.3x 5.9 % 1.1x 13.2xTelecommunication Services 1.8 5.9 1.8 9.1 1.6 18.6Consumer Discretionary 1.4 7.9 3.3 5.9 1.1 15.9Consumer Staples 1.3 9.8 3.7 5.3 1.7 15.5Utilities NM 7.7 1.6 1.1 4.3 14.2Information Technology 2.3 8.9 3.9 7.2 1.0 13.6Industrials 1.6 9.7 2.8 6.4 1.0 13.5Materials 1.4 7.5 2.6 5.3 1.1 13.4Health Care 1.3 7.6 2.7 8.1 1.6 12.5Financials NM NM 1.1 NM 1.1 11.7Energy 1.0 4.8 2.0 2.6 0.8 10.8

EV/ Sales

EV/ EBITDA

Price/ Book

FCF Yield P/E

PEG Ratio

Median Z-Score

S&P 500 (0.6) (1.3) (0.8) (0.6) (1.0) (0.8) (0.8)Health Care (1.2) (0.9) (0.9) (1.3) (0.6) 2.4 (0.9)Information Technology 0.9 (0.7) 1.3 (1.0) (1.1) (0.8) (0.7)Energy (1.6) (1.0) (0.8) 0.8 0.1 (0.6) (0.7)Financials NM NM (1.3) NM (0.0) (0.1) (0.1)Materials 0.4 (0.1) 0.5 0.4 (0.1) (0.4) 0.1Industrials (1.2) 0.5 1.2 0.8 (0.1) (1.3) 0.2Telecommunication Services (0.5) 1.2 0.5 0.4 3.1 (0.8) 0.4Consumer Discretionary 2.7 0.8 2.4 (0.2) 0.2 (0.4) 0.5Utilities NM 0.9 0.1 0.1 1.0 3.2 0.9Consumer Staples 1.8 2.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3

13.2

05

1015202530

1/76 1/79 1/82 1/85 1/88 1/91 1/94 1/97 1/00 1/03 1/06 1/09 1/12

NTM

P/E

(x)

10-yr rolling avg

P/E

2.30123456

1/76 1/79 1/82 1/85 1/88 1/91 1/94 1/97 1/00 1/03 1/06 1/09 1/12

LTM

P/B

(x)

10-yr rolling avg

P/B

GROWTH VALUEFastest EPS Growth Lowest P/E

Sector Ticker 2012E 2013E Ticker NTM Rel to SPX

Cons Discr DHI 98 % 57 % GT 6.2 x 0.5 x

Consumer Staples WFM 21 16 SVU 4.8 0.4

Energy NBR 53 22 VLO 6.6 0.5

Financials HIG 73 10 HIG 6.2 0.5

Health Care EW 30 33 CI 9.0 0.7

Industrials LUV 61 36 RRD 6.9 0.5

Info Tech WDC 67 (4) FSLR 5.2 0.4

Materials ATI 24 45 CLF 7.5 0.6

Telecom Services CCI 73 45 PCS 10.3 0.8

Utilities AES 23 4 AES 10.4 0.8



S&P 500 Factor Performance

Exhibit 25: S&P 500 factor return ranking for the week ended March 29, 2012 (a)

(a) Factor return analysis uses S&P 500 companies included in the Goldman Sachs Americas coverage universe with stock prices greater than $5 at the time of publication. (b) Growth, Value and Profitability analysis is based on Goldman Sachs Investment Profile scores (“IP Scores”). Growth, value and profitability metrics are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region’s coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year’s estimate over current year’s estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book.

(c) “Other metric” analysis based on current market prices and data sourced from NASDAQ and NYSE via FactSet.

Source: NASDAQ and NYSE via FactSet, IDC, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Last Week Spread (%) Performance Spread of Top Quintile Less Bottom Quintile (%)Last Last Five Trading Days Last Last

Growth Metrics(b) Week 23-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar Month QuarterSales Growth 0.7 0.4 0.4 (0.5) 0.1 0.3 (0.8) 6.2

EPS Growth 0.3 0.6 0.1 (0.7) (0.1) 0.4 (1.4) 5.9

GROWTH 0.1 0.5 0.2 (0.7) (0.1) 0.1 (1.3) 5.8

EBITDA Growth 0.0 0.6 0.2 (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (2.2) 3.4

Value Metrics(b)

P/B 1.5 (0.3) 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.6 9.0

EV/DACF 1.5 (0.7) 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.2 7.0 9.5

EV/EBITDA 1.4 (0.4) 0.8 0.5 0.6 (0.1) 7.8 11.4

VALUATION 1.3 (0.5) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 7.2 12.8

P/E 0.6 (0.6) 0.7 0.4 0.2 (0.2) 6.3 10.7

P/Div (0.3) (0.0) 0.2 (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 11.1

EV/FCF (1.3) 0.3 (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) (1.8) (2.7)

Profitability Metrics(b)

ROCE 1.1 (0.1) 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.1 7.1

ROE 1.1 (0.1) 0.5 (0.0) 0.2 0.4 3.5 1.3

PROFITABILITY 0.6 (0.3) 0.7 (0.1) 0.2 0.1 3.2 4.7

CROCI 0.4 (0.1) 0.8 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) 2.1 6.4

Other Metrics(c)

Short Interest Level (1.4) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) (0.8) (0.2) (1.8) 4.3

Equity Capitalization 1.2 0.2 0.2 (0.1) 0.7 0.3 1.6 (2.2)

(2) (1) 0 1 2



Style and Size

Exhibit 26: Total return by style and size over time as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 27: Total return by SECTOR for S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 as of March 29, 2012



Exhibit 28: GROWTH vs. VALUE relative performance over time Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value, as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 29: LARGE CAP vs. SMALL CAP relative performance over time S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000, as of March 29, 2012



Total Return Percentage Change (%)1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD

Large Cap vs. Small CapS&P 500 1 3 12 22 12Russell 2000 1 3 12 26 13

Large vs. Small (bps) (57) 11 (39) (418) (52)

Growth vs. ValueRussell 1000 Growth 1 3 14 23 14Russell 1000 Value 1 3 10 22 11

Growth vs. Value (bps) 19 53 388 133 378

Weight (%) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)Sector SP500 R2000 SP500 R2000 ∆ (bps) SP500 R2000 ∆ (bps)Health Care 11 13 2 2 41 8 15 (714)Information Tech 21 17 1 1 1 22 14 765Energy 11 7 (0) (0) (5) 3 7 (369)Cons Discretionary 11 14 1 1 (13) 15 18 (300)Utilities 3 3 1 1 (31) (2) (2) (20)Financials 15 22 1 2 (80) 21 12 949Consumer Staples 11 3 1 2 (105) 5 9 (419)Industrials 11 16 0 2 (127) 11 12 (93)Materials 3 5 1 2 (151) 11 13 (243)Telecom Services 3 1 (2) (0) (167) 2 13 (1,078)

Index 100 100 1 1 (57) 12 13 (52)

90

95

100

105

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Value outperforming

Growth outperforming85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

S&P 500 outperforming

Russell 2000 outperforming



Global Equity Market and Mutual Fund Performance

Exhibit 30: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over the past week as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 31: US EQUITY MUTUAL FUND performance vs. benchmark as of March 29, 2012


Source: Lipper, FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 32: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over time as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 33: International and other MUTUAL FUND performance as of March 29, 2012


Source: Lipper, FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

(5)(2)(2)

(2)(1)(1)(1)

(1)0

1 2

1

(6) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3

Spain (IBEX 35)Brazil (Bovespa)France (CAC 40)

China (MSCI China)Korea (KOSPI)

Europe (DJ Stoxx 600)UK (FTSE 100)Germany (Dax)Japan (Nikkei)

U.S. (S&P 500)Australia (ASX 200)

Mexico (Bolsa)

% Weekly price change

Avg. Total Return (%) No. of AUMLipper Indices 1-week YTD Funds $ bilLarge-Cap Core Funds 0.6 11.3 30 548

Benchmark: S&P 500 0.8 12.2

Large-Cap Growth Funds 0.7 16.9 30 204Benchmark: Russell 1000 Growth 0.9 14.4

Large-Cap Value Funds 0.7 11.2 30 193Benchmark: Russell 1000 Value 0.7 10.6

Small-Cap Core Funds 1.1 11.8 30 129Benchmark: Russell 2000 1.4 12.7

Price Return (%) USD1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 2012 YTD 2011

Germany (Dax) (1) (0) 21 19 (17)Brazil (Bovespa) (2) (8) 16 16 (27)Mexico (Bolsa) 2 3 14 15 (15)Japan (Nikkei) 0 2 14 12 (13)Korea (KOSPI) (1) (2) 12 12 (12)U.S. (S&P 500) 1 3 11 12 (0)France (CAC 40) (2) (3) 11 9 (20)Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) (1) (2) 11 9 (14)China (MSCI China) (2) (8) 9 9 (18)Australia (ASX 200) 1 (4) 9 8 (14)UK (FTSE 100) (1) (3) 7 5 (6)Spain (IBEX 35) (5) (7) (4) (6) (16)

Average (1) (2) 11 10 (14)

Avg. Total Return (%) Stdev No. of AUM

Lipper Indices 1-week YTD 1-week YTD Funds $ bil

International Equity

Global Funds 0 12 0.5 3.9 30 179

International Funds (0) 12 0.5 2.7 30 432

European Funds (0) 13 0.6 3.9 10 12

Emerging Market Funds (0) 14 0.5 1.7 30 136

Real Estate and Natural Resources

Real Estate 1 9 0.4 1.0 30 60

Natural Resource (1) 4 0.6 1.4 10 7

Fixed Income

General U.S. Government Funds Index 0 (1) 0.3 1.5 6 NA

A Rated Bond Funds Index 0 2 0.3 1.0 30 NA

BBB Rated Funds Index 1 2 0.5 2.7 30 NA



ETF Analysis: Composition, Valuation, Growth and Ownership

Exhibit 34: Selected ETF analysis for the week ended March 29, 2012 (a) (b)

(a) Performance of the underlying index.

(b) Valuation, growth and ownership metrics are bottom-up aggregations of consensus forecasts, except where noted. (c) Hedge Fund ownership data based on 4Q 2011 13-F filings.

Source: Compustat, First Call, Lionshare via FactSet, IDC, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. See our Goldman Sachs ETF Bloomberg page <GETFG> or contact the desk at 1-888-ETF-DESK for more information.

ETF Description Composition Performance (%) Valuation Growth (%) Ownership Market Top Stocks as Valuation Short Median

Cap No. of % of ETF Price Change (a) P/E P/B Div Sales Growth Earnings Growth Interest Hedge FundSector / sub-sector Index ETF $ mil Stocks 1 5 10 1 Wk YTD NTM LTM Yield 2012 2013 2012 2013 Days Own (%) (c)

S&P 500 SPX SPY 105,776 500 4 13 21 1 12 13 2.3 2.1 5 5 9 13 1.9 3.0S&P 100 OEX OEF 3,602 100 7 20 32 1 12 13 2.3 2.2 5 5 9 12 1.4 1.6Nasdaq-100 NDX QQQ 35,544 100 19 43 57 1 21 15 3.8 0.9 11 9 15 14 1.6 3.5

Consumer Discretionary IXY XLY 3,359 80 7 29 45 1 15 16 3.2 1.6 6 6 12 17 2.5 4.4Homebuilders SPHOME XHB 1,363 35 4 19 37 1 26 25 2.3 0.9 8 9 96 40 3.3 6.0Retail SPSIRETR XRT 754 94 1 6 12 1 13 17 2.6 1.0 4 4 15 18 3.2 7.9

Consumer Staples IXR XLP 5,438 42 14 46 66 0 4 15 3.5 2.9 5 4 7 10 2.2 1.9

Energy IXE XLE 7,607 43 19 50 64 (0) 3 11 2.0 1.7 1 5 2 14 1.9 4.3Clean Energy ECO PBW 197 56 3 15 28 (1) 9 NM 1.0 0.5 (4) 16 NM NM 5.4 4.2Natural Resources SPGSSINR IGE 1,832 154 8 30 42 (1) 3 12 1.8 1.8 4 6 5 18 2.2 4.8Oil & Gas E&P SPSIOP XOP 1,084 72 2 8 15 (2) 8 16 1.9 0.6 3 8 14 29 2.5 5.6Oil Services OXH OIH 940 25 20 50 72 (3) 6 13 2.0 1.6 19 12 29 24 2.0 4.5

Financials IXM XLF 7,720 81 9 37 51 1 21 12 1.0 1.7 NM NM 22 15 1.6 2.7Banks BKX KBE 1,893 38 3 14 28 1 26 14 1.1 2.0 NM NM 29 26 1.2 2.4Broker-Dealers DJSINV IAI 73 24 9 34 57 (1) 21 14 1.2 1.6 NM NM 26 20 1.6 3.9Insurance KIX KIE 136 41 3 13 25 1 11 10 0.9 2.1 NM NM 64 9 2.1 3.4Real Estate DJUSRE IYR 3,605 82 9 26 42 1 9 16 2.4 4.1 NM NM 5 8 4.4 2.5Regional Banks KRX KRE 1,171 74 2 9 18 1 18 15 1.2 1.8 NM NM 19 23 3.7 3.1REITs RMZ VNQ 11,278 111 11 28 46 1 9 17 2.4 3.6 NM NM 7 7 5.1 2.3

Health Care IXV XLV 4,116 52 12 42 58 2 8 12 2.7 2.2 2 3 2 8 2.6 3.6Biotech SPSIBI XBI 533 46 4 17 32 3 21 NM 6.8 0.1 7 16 NM NM 3.9 11.8Pharmaceuticals IPH PPH 251 25 9 35 59 2 4 12 3.0 2.7 1 3 (4) 7 2.3 1.5

Industrials IXI XLI 3,083 61 11 32 50 0 10 14 3.0 2.3 7 6 11 14 2.3 2.2Transportation TRAN IYT 524 20 11 43 71 1 5 16 2.4 1.5 7 7 33 20 2.7 3.2

Information Technology IXT XLK 9,825 79 19 47 66 1 19 14 3.5 1.5 8 7 11 14 1.4 3.7Semiconductors SOXXIV SOXX 305 30 8 40 60 1 20 15 2.6 1.4 1 10 (9) 27 1.9 3.9Semiconductors XSH SMH 316 25 20 50 69 0 15 15 3.1 1.8 1 10 (7) 22 1.9 3.1Software SPGSTISO IGV 547 54 9 37 59 2 22 18 4.3 0.6 11 9 12 13 2.1 3.9Telecom Services DJSTELT IYZ 580 29 17 50 70 (1) 5 55 1.8 3.4 7 3 2 126 3.4 6.4

Materials IXB XLB 1,825 30 11 43 65 1 10 13 2.7 2.2 6 6 4 19 2.0 3.1Gold Miners GDM GDX 8,136 31 18 55 78 0 (5) 12 1.9 1.4 16 10 20 14 1.3 2.7Metals & Mining SPSIMM XME 678 41 3 16 30 1 1 17 1.5 1.4 4 7 13 55 2.3 5.9Steel STEEL SLX 148 26 11 39 65 1 11 9 1.1 2.6 2 12 10 21 2.5 3.6

Utilities IXU XLU 6,326 32 9 36 57 1 (3) 14 1.6 4.3 NM NM (6) 3 2.8 1.5



Fund Flows

Exhibit 35: Domestic equity mutual fund flows, 4-week moving average week ended March 28, 2012

Exhibit 36: Weekly mutual fund flows and assets tracked by Lipper week ended March 28, 2012; excluding ETFs

Source: Lipper and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Source: Lipper and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 37: Average daily TRADING TURNOVER over the last week by sector, as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 38: Top ten S&P 500 STOCKS by daily average trading turnover as of March 29, 2012

Daily average turnover = daily avg. trading value / avg. market cap (over the past 5 trading days).

Daily average turnover = daily avg. trading value / avg. market cap (over the past 5 trading days).



(7.0)

(5.0)

(3.0)

(1.0)

1.0

3.0

5.0

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

$ bi

llion

s

Domestic Equities, 4-week moving avg

Lipper Weekly Mutual Fund Flows, ex-ETFs ($ billions)

Total Lipper Weekly Flows Total Flows Inflow/(Outflow)Assets 4-Week Avg This week 2012 YTD (Cons. Weeks)

All Equity 2,081 (0.4) (2.5) 1.9 (1)

U.S. Equity 1,563 (0.3) (1.8) (1.6) (1)

Int'l Equity 457 0.4 0.2 5.6 12

Global 61 (0.5) (0.8) (2.1) (5)

Equity Income 111 0.3 0.0 5.7 46

Gold & Nat Res 38 (0.1) (0.2) 0.2 (3)

Money Market 2,327 (11.0) (12.2) (88.3) (5)

All Taxable Bond 1,207 4.2 3.9 47.5 15

Govt Treas 32 0.2 0.3 1.7 4

0.40.60.6

0.70.7

0.80.9

1.01.0

1.1

0.8

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Cons StaplesIndustrials

UtilitiesHealth Care

EnergyS&P 500

FinancialsTelecom Services

Cons DiscrInfo TechMaterials

% Daily Avg Trading Turnover

Avg Daily 1-WeekTrading Total

Company Ticker Sector Turnover ReturnNetflix Inc. NFLX Consumer Discretionary 7.7 % (3)%United States Steel X Materials 7.3 (0)Alpha Natural Resources ANR Energy 5.7 (5)Lennar Corp. LEN Consumer Discretionary 5.4 4First Solar FSLR Information Technology 5.3 (7)Expedia Inc. EXPE Consumer Discretionary 4.6 (3)Micron Technology MU Information Technology 4.1 (3)PulteGroup PHM Consumer Discretionary 4.1 2Peabody Energy BTU Energy 3.9 (3)Apollo Group APOL Consumer Discretionary 3.7 (9)

S&P 500 Average 1.0 % 1 %



Correlation and Risk

Exhibit 39: S&P 500 stock and sector average correlation as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 40: Credit Default Swaps, 5-Year On-the-Run Spreads as of March 29, 2012

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 41: S&P 500 Cost of Equity = ERP + 10 Year Treasury Yield as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 42: Risk Barometer and S&P 500 VIX Volatility Index Risk Barometer index is number of standard deviations from the average * 100

We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) using our DDM framework to model expected future cash flows. We solve for the cost of equity that implies the market is at ‘fair value’ and then deduct the 10-year US treasury.

Note: Metrics included are implied option volatility (S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100), normalized skew, high yield credit spreads, credit derivative swap spreads, mutual fund net flows, and cash levels.

Source: IDC via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Source: IDC via FactSet, Lipper, ICI, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Dec

-89

Dec

-90

Dec

-91

Dec

-92

Dec

-93

Dec

-94

Dec

-95

Dec

-96

Dec

-97

Dec

-98

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Aver

age

Cor

rela

tion

Average stock correlation

Average sector correlation

0.64

0.24

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

High Yield C

DX (bps)

Inve

stm

ent G

rade

CD

X (b

ps) CDX (IG) (lhs)

CDX (HY) (rhs)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

11

Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Cost ofEquity

10 YearUS Treas.

Yield

ERP6.4 %

2.2 %

8.5 %

(5)

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec

-12

S&P 500 VIX

Risk

Bar

omet

er

Risk Aversion Increasing

Risk Aversion Decreasing

29-Mar-12

Risk Barometer (LHS)

S&P 500 VIX (RHS)

(38)

15



Goldman Sachs Recommendations and Forecasts

Exhibit 43: Goldman Sachs Recommended Sector Weightings (a) as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 44: Goldman Sachs US Economics quarterly GDP forecasts as of March 30, 2012

(a) Sector weightings last rebalanced on January 30, 2012.


Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Exhibit 45: Goldman Sachs 3-, 6-, and 12-month forecasts as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 46: Goldman Sachs US Economics forecasts as of March 30, 2012

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Sector Weightings

Total Goldman Sachs Current GS GSReturn Recommended S&P 500 Overweight / Alpha

Sectors YTD Sector Weightings Weight Underweight YTDEnergy 3 % 11 % 200 bp (12)bpInformation Technology 22 21 200 17

Consumer Staples 5 11 0 (12)Financials 21 15 0 0Industrials 11 11 0 (6)Materials 11 3 0 (6)Telecom Services 2 3 0 (8)Utilities (2) 3 0 0

Consumer Discretionary 15 11 (200) (6)Health Care 8 11 (200) 4

S&P 500 12 % 100 % 0 bp (29)bp

Overweight

Neutral

Underweight0.4

1.3 1.8

3.0 2.3

2.0 2.0 2.5

2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5

0.0 %

0.5 %

1.0 %

1.5 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

3.0 %

3.5 %

4.0 %

Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E

GD

P G

row

th (

qoq

annu

aliz

ed %

)

2011 2012 2013

Goldman SachsEconomics

Consensus

Forecastsunits Current 3m 6m 12m

EquitiesS&P 500 level 1403 1275 1325 1250DJStoxx 600 level 261 270 275 290Asia Pac Ex-Japan level 437 450 475 525TOPIX level 858 900 970 970

Ten Year RatesUS % 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8Euro Area % 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.8Japan % 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4

CurrenciesEuro / US Dollar EUR/$ 1.33 1.33 1.38 1.45Sterling / US Dollar £/$ 1.59 1.53 1.59 1.67US Dollar / Yen $/¥ 82 77 76 74

EnergyBrent Crude Oil $/bbl 122 120 120 128NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 2.28 2.90 2.75 4.25

MetalsCOMEX Gold $/troy oz 1652 1785 1840 1940LME Copper $/mt 8350 8400 9000 9000

% Annual Change2011E 2012E 2013E

Real GDP 1.7% 2.2% 2.2%Consumer Spending 2.2 1.9 1.9Total Fixed Investment 6.7 7.5 7.7

Business Fixed Investment 8.7 6.9 7.0Residential Investment (1.4) 10.4 10.6

Federal Government Spending (1.9) (1.7) (2.5)Exports of Goods and Services 6.8 5.2 6.0Imports of Goods and Services 4.9 4.2 5.8

InflationProducer Price Index 6.0 2.6 2.6Headline CPI 3.1 2.3 1.7Core CPI 1.7 1.9 1.5Core PCE 1.5 1.6 1.4

Unemployment Rate 9.0 8.3 8.2Fed Funds Rate 0.1 0.1 0.12-year Treasury Rate 0.3 0.5 1.010-year Treasury Rate 1.9 2.5 3.3



Goldman Sachs Strategy Baskets

US Portfolio Strategy baskets are designed to provide portfolio managers with vehicles to monitor and implement thematic views in the U.S. equity markets. Our

baskets may be found on Bloomberg by typing <GSTH>. The Bloomberg page provides real-time basket performance and current basket constituents. To obtain

access to our baskets on Bloomberg, please contact your Goldman Sachs salesperson.

Exhibit 47: Strategy basket performance and average valuation data as of March 29, 2012

Exhibit 48: Strategy basket total return performance over the last week last week % total return, as of March 29, 2012


Exhibit 49: US Portfolio Strategy thematic trade recommendations as of March 29, 2012

Results presented should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Further details on performance calculations can be provided upon request.

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Bloomberg Total Return % P/E P/B Div YldTicker 1 wk 1 mo YTD NTM LTM (%)

Macroeconomic Baskets

US Sales GSTHAINT 1 % 1 % 9 % 16x 3.0x 2.0 %International Sales GSTHINTL 1 1 12 15 4.9 1.6Cyc. Attractive Risk-Reward GSTHCARR 0 2 19 19 4.5 1.5Western Europe Sales GSTHWEUR 1 1 11 17 4.5 1.0BRICs Sales GSTHBRIC 0 1 15 15 4.4 1.3Dual Beta GSTHBETA 1 2 16 16 2.4 1.1

Fundamental Baskets

High Quality GSTHQUAL 1 % 2 % 12 % 16x 4.9x 1.9 %ROE Growth GSTHGROE 1 2 14 14 3.2 1.8Revenue Growth GSTHREVG 1 3 16 21 4.8 1.1High Op Leverage GSTHOPHI 1 1 12 14 2.7 1.7Low Op Leverage GSTHOPLO 1 2 12 16 5.5 1.5Strong Balance Sheet GSTHSBAL 1 2 13 21 6.2 0.9Weak Balance Sheet GSTHWBAL 1 2 12 16 2.1 1.8

Hedge Fund Baskets

High HF Concentration GSTHHFHI (1)% 1 % 18 % 17x 2.5x 0.7 %Low HF Concentration GSTHHFSL 1 2 9 16 2.9 3.0Hedge Fund VIP GSTHHVIP 1 2 14 15 5.3 1.3

Valuation Baskets

GARP GSTHGARP 0 % 2 % 11 % 15x 3.0x 1.3 %Dividend Growth GSTHDIVG 1 2 11 13 2.5 2.8High Sharpe Ratio GSTHSHRP 0 1 16 13 2.3 1.7

Sector BasketsGlobal Cyclicals GSSBGCYC 1 % 1 % 14 % 16x 3.0x 1.5 %Global Defensives GSSBGDEF 1 3 9 17 5.7 1.8Domestic Cyclicals GSSBDCYC 1 6 18 14 2.1 2.1Domestic Defensives GSSBDDEF 1 3 8 15 3.3 2.5

S&P 500 1 % 3 % 12 % 13x 2.3x 2.1 %S&P 500 Average 15 3.5 1.9S&P 500 Median 14 2.4 1.8

(0.7)0.1

0.3 0.4 0.5

0.5 0.5

0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

0.7

0.7 0.7 0.8

0.9 0.8

0.6

0.7

0.7

1.2

(1) 0 1 2

High HF Conc <GSTHHFHI>Sharpe Ratio <GSTHSHRP>Cyc Attr RR <GSTHCARR>BRIC Sales <GSTHBRIC>

GARP <GSTHGARP>Dual Beta <GSTHBETA>

Strong B/S <GSTHSBAL>Global Cyclical <GSSBGCYC>

ROE Growth <GSTHGROE>Low HF Conc <GSTHHFSL>

W Europe Sales <GSTHWEUR>Int'l Sales <GSTHINTL>

Dom Cyclical <GSSBDCYC>Weak B/S <GSTHWBAL>

Dom Defensive <GSSBDDEF>Hedge Fund VIP <GSTHHVIP>

US Sales <GSTHAINT>High Quality <GSTHQUAL>

S&P 500Dividend Growth <GSTHDIVG>

Global Defensive <GSSBGDEF>

Thematic Trade RecommendationsInitiation Weekly

Date Return Return

BUY Cyclically Attractive Risk-Reward Basket (GSTHCARR); SELL S&P 500See US Thematic Views (9-Jan-12) 9-Jan-12 3.9 % (0.5)%

BUY Domestic Sales Basket (GSTHAINT); SELL International Sales Basket (GSTHINTL)See 2012 Outlook: Strategies for stagnation (30-Nov-11) 30-Nov-11 (1.8)% 0.1 %

BUY High Quality Basket (GSTHQUAL); SELL S&P 500See US Equity Views (4-Oct-11) 4-Oct-11 (1.4)% (0.0)%

BUY Dividend Growth Basket (GSTHDIVG); SELL S&P 500See US Equity Views (5-Aug-11) 5-Aug-11 (0.8)% 0.1 %

BUY High Sharpe Ratio Basket (GSTHSHRP); SELL S&P 500See 2010 Outlook: Cyclical start; defensive finish (7-Dec-09) 7-Dec-09 18.0 % (0.7)%



Constituents of our Dividend Growth basket <GSTHDIVG>

Exhibit 50: Dividend Growth <GSTHDIVG> basket, as of March 29, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Compustat, FirstCall, IDC via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

2013E Cash 2013E Cash Market Ann. 2012E Dividend Growth 2011-2013 Return on Market Ann. 2012E Dividend Growth 2011-2013 Return on

Price Cap Payout Dividend 2012E 2013E Dividend Cash Price Cap Payout Dividend 2012E 2013E Dividend CashCompany Name Ticker 29-Mar-12 ($ bil) Ratio Yield Growth Growth CAGR Invested Company Name Ticker 29-Mar-12 ($ bil) Ratio Yield Growth Growth CAGR Invested

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALSCablevision Systems CVC $14.80 $3 62 % 4.5 % 15 % 17 % 16 % 5.2 % Avery Dennison AVY $30.17 $3 52 % 3.6 % 8 % 11 % 10 % 4.0 %Darden Restaurants DRI 50.70 7 43 3.7 24 14 19 4.2 General Electric GE 19.95 211 44 3.6 16 15 16 4.1Carnival Corp. CCL 32.04 15 57 3.1 0 20 10 3.7 Iron Mountain IRM 28.73 5 75 3.7 15 9 12 4.1Time Warner Cable TWC 80.34 25 41 2.8 17 11 14 3.1 Emerson Electric EMR 51.87 38 43 3.2 14 10 12 3.5Johnson Controls JCI 32.27 22 25 2.4 15 24 19 2.9 Eaton Corp. ETN 49.15 16 34 3.1 12 13 12 3.5

CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYLorillard Inc. LO $131.33 $17 70 % 4.7 % 19 % 3 % 11 % 4.9 % Microchip Technology MCHP $36.74 $7 69 % 3.8 % 35 % 1 % 17 % 3.9 %Dr Pepper Snapple Group DPS 39.75 8 46 3.6 17 10 14 3.9 Intel Corp. INTC 28.16 141 34 3.1 12 14 13 3.6Safeway Inc. SWY 20.48 5 30 3.3 21 20 20 3.9 Harris Corp. HRS 44.72 5 25 3.0 25 6 15 3.1Molson Coors Brewing TAP 44.99 7 35 3.1 13 11 12 3.5 Microsoft Corp. MSFT 32.12 240 28 2.6 22 14 18 3.0Walgreen Co. WAG 33.93 30 33 2.9 21 13 17 3.2 Computer Sciences Corp. CSC 30.28 5 25 2.7 3 9 6 3.0Coca-Cola Enterprises CCE 28.15 8 28 2.3 25 0 12 2.3 Xerox Corp. XRX 8.13 11 15 2.1 0 41 19 3.0

KLA-Tencor Corp. KLAC 54.10 9 31 2.6 17 7 12 2.8ENERGY Accenture ACN 64.50 42 34 2.2 27 12 19 2.5Williams Companies Inc WMB $30.59 $18 69 % 3.8 % 50 % 12 % 30 % 4.2 % Texas Instruments TXN 33.19 38 36 2.1 25 13 19 2.4Chevron Corp. CVX 106.85 211 25 3.1 9 9 9 3.4 International Bus. Machines IBM 208.27 241 20 1.6 14 12 13 1.8Marathon Petroleum MPC 43.24 15 18 2.4 129 12 60 2.7Occidental Petroleum OXY 94.43 77 25 2.3 17 15 16 2.6 MATERIALSValero Energy Corp. VLO 26.65 15 15 2.3 100 8 47 2.4 Newmont Mining NEM $51.34 $25 28 % 3.2 % 63 % 37 % 49 % 4.3 %Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 86.08 406 23 2.3 6 6 6 2.4 Dow Chemical DOW 34.18 41 37 3.4 28 17 22 3.9

FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICESSLM Corp. SLM $15.85 $8 24 % 3.2 % 67 % 20 % 41 % 3.8 % AT&T Inc. T $31.21 $185 75 % 5.6 % 2 % 2 % 2 % 5.8 %Huntington Bancshares HBAN 6.40 6 27 2.5 60 38 48 3.4BlackRock Inc. BLK 199.59 20 45 3.0 9 13 11 3.4 UTILITIESU.S. Bancorp USB 31.55 60 29 2.5 56 23 39 3.0 Northeast Utilities NU $37.21 $7 49 % 3.2 % 7 % 6 % 7 % 3.4 %PNC Financial Svc. Gp. PNC 63.95 34 23 2.4 35 23 29 3.0 ONEOK Inc. OKE 81.89 9 66 3.1 16 12 14 3.4JPMorgan Chase JPM 45.67 174 25 2.5 44 17 30 3.0Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 14.03 13 23 2.3 14 25 20 2.9

HEALTH CAREPfizer Inc. PFE $22.42 $169 39 % 3.9 % 10 % 9 % 10 % 4.3 %Johnson & Johnson JNJ 65.54 180 45 3.7 7 7 7 3.9Becton Dickinson BDX 77.10 16 30 2.4 10 10 10 2.6Cardinal Health CAH 43.10 15 26 2.2 15 13 14 2.5Amgen Inc. AMGN 67.32 53 24 2.1 157 8 67 2.3 Dividend Growth <GSTHDIVG> Average $59 37% 3.0% 27% 14% 19 % 3.3 %Covidien COV 53.93 26 21 1.7 12 11 12 1.9 S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Average 1403 25 28 1.9 22 15 13 2.1



Recent US Portfolio Strategy Publications Please contact your Goldman Sachs salesperson for access to additional research or if you wish to be added to the US Portfolio

Strategy research distribution list.

Exhibit 51: Recent research from US Portfolio Strategy

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Latest Market Research Publication Date

US Equity Views: Today vs. 2007 Peak: Comparing earnings, growth and P/E multiples March 23, 2012

US Equity Views: Raising dividend forecasts as firms return more cash to shareholders March 21, 2012

US Equity Views: The Multiple Mystery: US equity earnings yield vs. bond yield March 20, 2012

US Thematic Views: GARP Update March 1, 2012

US Sector Views: Shift to neutral, late-cycle allocation January 30, 2012

US Thematic Views: Buy US stocks with cyclically attractive risk-reward January 9, 2012

Recent US Weekly Kickstart: "Conversations we are having with clients" Publication Date

Health Care and the High Court March 23, 2012

Multiple expansion rally and topics raised on our West Coast trip: Housing, oil, dividends March 16, 2012

S&P 500 Idiosyncratic Risk rose in January but remains a headwind for fund managers March 9, 2012

Investors sensing déjà vu in equity and oil markets March 2, 2012

Despite lagging hedge fund returns, following the "smart money" is a profitable strategy February 24, 2012

Franchise Research Publication Date

S&P 500 Idiosyncratic Risk: Micro vs. Macro equity returns February 24, 2012

Portfolio Strategy: GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator January 13, 2012

The multiple mystery: P/E based on uncertainty metrics August 9, 2011

Rebalancing our strong and weak Balance Sheet baskets July 29, 2011

Portfolio Strategy: The anatomy of ROE: Part 3: S&P 500 Stocks July 12, 2011

Portfolio Passport: US stocks for a growth market world April 12, 2011

Periodical Research Description Frequency Timing / Recent Release

Hedge Fund Trend Monitor Analysis of hedge fund holdings and positioning Quarterly February 21, 2012

Global Dividend Swap Monitor Summary of global dividend swap market and forecasts Monthly March 28, 2012

S&P 500 Beige Book Qualitative assessment of S&P 500 quarterly earnings reports Quarterly February 17, 2012

Strategy Baskets Overview of US Portfolio Strategy thematic baskets Quarterly September 8, 2011

US Monthly Chartbook Monthly report on where to invest in the S&P 500 Monthly March 5, 2012

US Weekly Kickstart Five minute guide to the US equity market Weekly Friday PM

Where to Invest Now Marketing presentation highlighting recent research and best trade ideas Monthly March 5, 2012



Equity basket disclosure

The Securities Division of the firm may have been consulted as to the various components of the baskets of securities discussed in this report prior to their launch; however, none of this research, the conclusions expressed herein, nor the timing of this report was shared with the Securities Division.



Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC

We, David J. Kostin, Stuart Kaiser, CFA, Amanda Sneider, CFA, Peter Lewis and Ben Snider, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the

subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views

expressed in this report.

Disclosures

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships

Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell

Global 30% 55% 15% 47% 42% 34%

As of January 16, 2012, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,593 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment

Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage

groups and views and related definitions' below.

Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations

See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or

other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or

specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities.

The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their

households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes

investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer,

director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and

therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.

Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States

The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia

Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking

business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs.

Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily

responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the

text. Canada: Goldman, Sachs & Co. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may

conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered

companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may

be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited; Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained

from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve

Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by

Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion

as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this



research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors

should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the

United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies

referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in

this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request.

European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at

http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research.

Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a

member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus

consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities

Finance Company.

Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions

Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a

stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review

Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular

coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the

potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.

Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for

all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership.

Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one

of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The

investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12

months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage

group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation.

Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic

transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because

there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and

price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not

meaningful and is therefore excluded.

Global product; distributing entities

The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices

around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia

by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by Goldman, Sachs & Co. regarding

Canadian equities and by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman

Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in

Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this

research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union.

European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and

United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany.

General disclosures

This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is

accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports

published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.

Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a

substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org).

Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are

contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the

recommendations or views expressed in this research.



The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that

reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' published

price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return

potential relative to its coverage group as described herein.

We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or

derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal

recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this

research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income

from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have

adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.

Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options

disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transaction costs may be significant in option

strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request.

In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its

research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and

reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting.

All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or

available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact

your sales representative or go to http://360.gs.com.

Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282.

© 2012 Goldman Sachs.

No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Documents

US Weekly Kickstart - Scholar and Feminist Onlinesfonline.barnard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/US... · 2012. 5. 21. · Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy