US Universities and Academic Science Careers: Storm Clouds ......Storm Clouds on the Horizon For Presentation at: COSEPUP, National Academies of Science: The Arc of the Academic Research

1 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013

US Universities and Academic Science Careers:

Storm Clouds on the Horizon

For Presentation at:

COSEPUP, National Academies of Science:

The Arc of the Academic Research Career: Issues and Implications for U.S. Science

and Engineering Leadership


Acknowledgements / Disclaimers

Gender Differences in Academic Careers joint with:

Shulamit Kahn, Boston University

Future of the Biomedical Workforce joint with:

Bruce Weinberg, Ohio State University

Wally Schaffer and Dorit Zuk, NIH

Ginther and Kahn’s research was funded in part by NIH Grant

R01-AG036820 and Ginther received funding from NSF Grant

SES-0353703.

The use of NSF data does not imply NSF endorsement of the research, research methods, or conclusions contained in this report.


Overview

Examine how academic career path has evolved 1980-2008 • PhD Student production • Academic & Non-Academic employment • Tenured & Tenure track jobs • Non-track jobs

Case study of Biomedical Careers Early academic careers

• How the postdoc affects subsequent career outcomes.

Some thoughts about the challenges facing academic science in the near- and long-term.


Data

Much of this work is based on the 1980-2008 waves of the Survey of Doctorate Recipients. • 2010 wave just became available, but it is not

included in this analysis

Biomedical Data supplemented with information from the BLS’s Occupational Employment Statistics and other sources.

When thinking about Academic Science, important to recognize that each field has a separate labor market.


Data

Science is grouped into four broad categories:

• Life Science Biomedical

Agriculture and Environmental

• Physical Science Chemistry and Physics

Geosciences

Math and Computer Science

• Social Science Psychology & Other Social Sciences

• Engineering


Doctorates Awarded by Field

Since the 1990s, Life Science has awarded the most doctorates (driven by biomedicine). Social science awards a high number of doctorates but growth has been flat. Engineering doctorates awarded since 1980 have more than tripled (Source

1980-2011 Survey of Earned Doctorates).

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Number

DoctoratesAwardedbyField

Engineering LifeSciences PhysicalScience SocScience

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Growth

GrowthinDoctoratesAwardedbyField


Academic and Non-Academic Employment by Field

With the exception of Life Sciences, the majority of US trained doctorates are employed in the non-academic sector (Source 1981-2008 Survey

of Doctorate Recipients).

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

EngineeringEmployment

Non-academic

Academic

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

LifeScienceEmployment

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

PhysicalScienceEmployment

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

SocialScienceEmployment


Academic and Non-Academic Employment Growth

Non-academic employment growth accounts for the majority of jobs for doctorates since the 1980s. (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients).

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

Growth

AcademicEmploymentGrowth

Engineering

LifeScience

PhysicalScience

SocialScience

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

Growth

Non-AcademicEmploymentGrowth

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Growth

GrowthinDoctoratesAwarded


Employment Growth

Academic Employment Growth has been much lower than Non-Academic Employment Growth

However, PhD Production for Life and Physical Sciences has doubled and for Engineering has tripled.

Physical Science and Engineering are producing more PhDs than jobs available in the US

• Are Foreign PhDs returning to home countries?

Life Science PhD and Employment growth are roughly equal

Social Science producing PhD growth less than employment growth


Tenure Track and Non-track Academic by Field

Life Science and Social Science are the largest fields. Growth evident in non-track positions (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients).

.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

EngineeringAcademicEmployment

Non-Track

TenureTrack

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

LifeScienceAcademicEmployment

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

PhysicalSci.AcademicEmployment

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

SocialScienceAcademicEmployment


Tenure Track and Non-track Academic Growth

With the exception of Engineering, Tenure Track Faculty Growth has been essentially flat.

The overwhelming majority of growth has been in non-track academic jobs.

PhD production has outpaced academic employment growth in every field except Social Science. (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate

Recipients).

.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

Growth

TenureTrackFacultyGrowth1981-2008

Engineering

LifeScience

PhysicalScience

SocialScience

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008

Growth

Non-TrackAcademicGrowth1981-2008


The Academic Labor Market

In academia, Supply of PhDs has outstripped Demand.

While the non-academic sector has absorbed many of these doctorates, given the recent economic crisis and jobless recovery, it is not clear that it will continue to do so.

The gap between Supply and Demand will likely grow larger given the current financial issues facing academic institutions.


Biomedical Research Workforce ACD

Working Group (ACD BMW) Working Group co-chaired by Shirley Tilghman and Sally

Rockey.

Charge

• Develop a model for a sustainable and diverse U.S.

biomedical research workforce that can inform decisions

about training of the optimal number of people for the

appropriate types of positions that will advance science and

promote health.

• Based on this analysis and input from the extramural

community, make recommendations for actions that NIH

should take to support a future sustainable biomedical

infrastructure.

• Reported to the ACD in June 2012.

• http://acd.od.nih.gov/Biomedical_research_wgreport.pdf

• Supplementary Web Site

http://report.nih.gov/investigators_and_trainees/ACD_BWF

13

http://acd.od.nih.gov/Biomedical_research_wgreport.pdf

http://report.nih.gov/investigators_and_trainees/ACD_BWF

http://acd.od.nih.gov/index.htm

http://acd.od.nih.gov/index.htm


Biomedical Workforce

Presenting Results from that report and its supplemental material on:

• Salaries

• Job Match

• Research Space

• Early Career Issues


Biomedical Analysis: Field Definitions

Basic Biomedical—(Biochemistry, Bioinformatics, Biological

Sciences, Biomedical Engineering, Biophysics, Biotechnology, Cell

Biology, Developmental Biology/Embryology, Endocrinology, Genetics,

Immunology, Microbiology, Molecular Biology, Neurosciences, Nutritional

Science, Parasitology, Pharmacology, Pharmaceutical Chemistry,

Physiology, Toxicology, Veterinary Medicine, Zoology )

Clinical Sciences (Biometrics and Biostatistics, Environmental

Health, Epidemiology, Exercise Science, Health Sciences, Health

Administration, Nursing, Pharmacy, Public Health, Rehabilitation Services,

Physicians in Academic Medicine)

Behavioral & Social Sciences (Anthropology,

Audiology/Speech Pathology, Demography/Population Studies, Sociology,

Psychology)

Other Life Sciences (Agricultural and Food Sciences,

Environmental Life Sciences

Chemistry


Comparison: Median PhD/Median

Bachelor’s Salary, by Field

Source: NSF SESTAT, prepared for ACD BMW

Early career Biomedical PhDs have the lowest PhD/Bachelor’s

salary ratio

There is no salary difference between fields later in career

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 2006 2008

Med

ian

Ph

D/B

A S

alar

y R

atio

0-9 Years After PhD

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 2006 2008

10-25 Years After PhD

Behavioral and Social Sciences Biological Sciences

Chemistry Other Life Sciences


Comparison: Salary Across Broad

Fields by Years of Experience

Years Since

PhD Bio Med Comp

Math Physical

Science Social

Science Engineer

0 51,594 66,804 57,775 55,532 72,992

10 87,766 99,972 94,180 87,853 113,314

30 123,959 109,277 122,148 107,321 133,292

Starting salaries are the lowest in biomedicine, but there is some

catch-up late career.

Engineers have the highest salaries over their careers.

Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, prepared for ACD BMW


Job Match: Relationship between science

and engineering PhD field and occupation

Across S&E PhD fields, 50-80% of graduates are employed in

occupations that closely match their PhD field.

Source: NSF Survey of Doctoral Recipients,

prepared for the ACD BMW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008

Biological/LifeSciences

Engineering Math and ComputerScience

Physical Sciences Psychology andSocial Science

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ph

Ds


70.75

59.29

79.26 77.77 78.64 77.44

55.14 52

73.32 69.38

22.79

31.93

17.32 18.39 16.04 17.23

34.55 37.27

20.02 23.36

6.46 8.78 3.42 3.84 5.32 5.33

10.31 10.73 6.66 7.26

1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008

Biomedical Sciences Clinical Sciences Behavioral and SocialSciences

Chemistry Other life sciences

Closely related Somewhat related Not related

Job Match: Relationship between PhD

Field and Occupation

Source: NSF Survey of Doctoral Recipients,

Prepared for the ACD BMW

Chemistry has the lowest proportion of PhDs working in a closely

related field

Within Life Sciences, Biological Sciences fields have the lowest

proportion of PhDs working in a related occupation.


University Assignable Research

Space, by Field

Source: NSF Survey of Science and

Engineering Research Facilities, -

prepared for the ACD BMW

Assignable space increased for most fields, and in particular

in the biological sciences.

Who filled that research space? Non-track scientists.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Ne

t as

sign

able

sq

uar

e f

ee

t, in

mill

ion

s

Agricultural sciences(1)

Biological sciences(2)

Earth, atmospheric, andocean sciences(4)Engineering

Medical sciences(6)

Physical sciences(7)

Psychology

NIH Doubling Period


Early Careers of Academic Scientists

Many of the changes resulting from the NIH’s the Biomedical Research Workforce Working Group focused on PhD and Postdoctoral training.

Here I present some analysis of the postdoc as well as information on the demand for biomedical researchers.


Training: US Graduate Degrees Awarded, by Field

Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates

Stable production of Chemistry PhDs since 1970 and MDs since 1980

Stable production of Clinical Sciences and Behavioral PhDs since 1998

Increasing production of Biomedical PhDs that coincides with end of NIH

Doubling (1999-2003)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Nu

mb

er

of

MD

s A

war

de

d

Nu

mb

er

of

Ph

Ds

Aw

ard

ed

Basic Biomedical PhDs Behavioral and Social Sciences PhDs Clinical Sciences PhDs

Chemistry PhDs MDs

Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, prepared for the ACD BMW


Training: US PhDs with Postdoctoral

Research Plans

Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, prepared for ACD BMW

Relatively stable percentage of biomedical PhDs planning postdocs since

mid-1980s, even with increasing number of PhDs produced

Increasing number of social sciences PhDs planning postdocs

Jump in percentage of clinical sciences PhDs planning postdocs

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000N

um

be

r o

f P

hD

s P

lan

nin

g P

ost

do

c

Biomedical Sciences

Behavioral and Social Sciences

Chemistry

Clinical Sciences

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ph

Ds

Pla

nn

ing

Po

std

oc

Biomedical Sciences

Behavioral and Social Sciences

Chemistry

Clinical Sciences


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Po

std

oct

ora

tes Federal Fellowship

Federal Traineeship

Federal Research Grant

Non-Federal Support

Postdoctorates, by Field and Type of

Support

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000N

um

be

r o

f P

ost

do

cto

rate

s

Biomedical

Behavioral & Social Sciences

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Po

std

oct

ora

tes Chemistry

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Nu

mb

ers

of

Po

sdo

cto

rate

s

Clinical Science

Field-specific volume of postdocs; only in Chemistry are numbers stable

Field-specific mix of federal and non-federal grant support Source: NSF Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs, prepared for ACD BMW


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 2008

Pe

rce

nt

of

Bio

me

dic

al P

hD

s in

Po

std

oct

ora

l R

ese

arch

er

Po

siti

on

s

Survey year

1-2 years since Ph.D




More than 8 years since Ph.D

NIH Doubling

Training: US-Trained Biomedical PhDs in

Postdoctoral Researcher Positions, by Years

Since Degree

Over 60% of Biomedical PhDs started their careers in

postdocs in the 1990s. The percentage taking postdocs fell

during the doubling.

Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, prepared for ACD BMW


Training: Fields with more postdocs

Fields where postdocs are more likely (top 10): genetics developmental biology

Biochemistry molecular biology

immunology cellular biology

Endocrinology biophysics

Microbiology neuroscience

→7 are in the top 10 fields of %PhDs NIH funds as postdocs

Fields where postdocs are less likely: biometrics/stats pharmaceutical science

nursing rehabilitation

kinesiology health science, other

public health environmental health

veterinary medicine health sciences general

→ 9 are in the bottom 10 fields of %PhDs NIH funds as postdocs

Source: NIH ACD BMW report


Biomedical Doctorate Academic

Career Milestones, by Age

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

Ave

rage

Age

PhD First Tenure Track Position First R01 First RPG (incl. K)

Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates and NIH IMPAC II, Prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report

There is a increasing divergence between age at PhD and age at

first R01/RPG for biomedical doctorates

There appears to be a decoupling of tenure track jobs and first NIH

R01/RPG


Age at PhD, First Non-Postdoc Job & First Tenure

Track Job by Broad Field

Gap between age at PhD and age at First Non-Postdoc Job is largest in Life Sciences because of prevalence of postdocs.

.

25

30

35

40

45

19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

Med

ianAge

PhDYear

EngineeringPhD

FirstJob

TenureTrackJob

25

30

35

40

45

19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

Med

ianAge

PhDYear

LifeScience

25

30

35

40

45

19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

Med

ianAge

PhDYear

PhysicalScience

25

30

35

40

45

19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006

Med

ianAge

PhDYear

SocialScience

Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients)


Age at First PhD, First Non Postdoctoral Job, First

Tenure Track Job, for US trained Doctorates

Source: Survey of Earned Doctorates

prepared for ACD BMW

Gap between age at PhD and age at First Non-Postdoc Job is largest in Biomedical Sciences because of postdocs.


Biomedical Job Creation Data

Used data from the Survey of Doctorate

Recipients

Combined with Occupational Employment

Statistics

• Estimated share of PhDs in occupations based

on SDR

• Data available 2002 – 2011

Examined levels and the number of jobs

added each year

OES estimates suggest that the demand

for biomedical PhDs has declined

precipitously


Estimated PhD Employment in Biomedical

Occupations 1993 - 2011

Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients and BLS Occupation Employment Statistics

SDR level of employment is higher (and more accurate)

However, SDR and OES trends are similar in overlapping

years

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1993199519971999200120032005200720092011

Employmen

tLevel

SDR

OES

Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, and BLS Occupational Employment Statistics , Prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report


Change in Biomedical Employment Levels

Compared to Doctorates Awarded 1993 - 2011

Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, and BLS Occupation Employment Statistics, prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report

Since 2003 57,541 PhDs awarded compared to ~27,808 biomedical jobs

created.

In 1997 –small gap between employment & PhDs 71% were working in jobs

closely related to field. In 2008 this number dropped to 60%

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Num

berofjo

bsadd

edorlost

SDREmployment

OESEmployment

USPhDs

USPhDs+ForeignPhDs


Storm Clouds Threaten Higher

Education

• Federal and State Funding for Higher Education is

decreasing.

• Decreases in federal research funding may

result in the US losing a generation of scientists

• Decreases in state funding make education less

affordable shutting out lower-income students.

• Emphasis on measuring the Return on Investment

in Higher Education may lead to unintended

consequences.

• Florida proposal to have differentiated tuition by

major (increasing the price of the humanities)

• Federal Research funding is a public good


Academic Science Faces Additional

Headwinds

• Growth in science PhDs being driven by foreign

students and women

• As other nations build academic science

infrastructure we will lose trained students to

other countries including Korea, China and EU.

• Average K-12 student is not well-prepared for

college courses, let alone more challenging courses

in STEM fields

• Science careers (especially biomedical careers) are

unattractive because of lengthy training period and

uncertain job prospects.

• Science is dominated by white men, whereas the

US population is becoming increasingly diverse.

3

4


Conclusions

Tenure Track Academic Jobs are becoming

increasingly scarce

• Academic institutions have hired greater

numbers of non-track PhDs compared with

tenure track PhDs.

PhD production in all fields except Social Science is

growing at a faster rate than academic employment in

those fields.

In many fields, match between degree and

employment has decreased

Taken together, this suggests that the supply of STEM

PhDs exceeds demand in many, but not all fields.

The Postdoc has an important impact on subsequent

career outcomes.

Documents

US Universities and Academic Science Careers: Storm Clouds ......Storm Clouds on the Horizon For Presentation at: COSEPUP, National Academies of Science: The Arc of the Academic Research