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U.S. Trade Overview, 2013
Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis
Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce
International Trade Administration
October 2014
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Change in Real GDP
forecast United StatesEmerging and developing economies Advanced economies
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Change in Export Volume
• Globally, trade accounts for more than 60% of gross domestic product (GDP). • Trade volume growth typically outpaces real GDP growth, and is expected to do so
over the next five years.
• The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for merchandise.
• While below the world average, U.S. export growth (by volume) exceeded the average for advanced economies in 2013 and is expected to continue to do so in 2014. Future world exports are expected to be largely driven by growth in emerging economies.
3.1% World export volume
growth in 2013 U.S. export volume growth, 2013 2.7%
10% U.S. Share of world
exports in 2013 (by value)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; WTO International Trade Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
ChinaUnited States
GermanyJapan
United KingdomFrance
NetherlandsKorea, Republic ofHong Kong, China
ItalyRussian Federation
BelgiumCanada
SingaporeIndia
Billions of current US dollars
Top Exporters, 2013
Merchandise Exports
Commercial Services Exports
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e fr
om P
revi
ous
Year
Percentage Change in World Trade and Output
Forecast Change in GDP (constant prices) Change in Total Trade Volume
Trade: A Vital Part of the Global Economy
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
• Total trade (exports and imports) accounted for 30% of U.S. GDP in 2013. • U.S. exports totaled a record $2.3 trillion in 2013, up 2.9% from 2012 and 44.0% from
2009 when the global crisis caused a worldwide drop in exports. • In 2013, exports were up $63.7 billion from 2012, with goods exports increasing by
$31.1 billion and services exports increasing by $32.6 billion. • The U.S. trade balance improved by $61.2 billion from 2012 to 2013, driven by the
increase in both goods and services exports and a drop in goods imports.
• Historically, exports have grown as a share of U.S. GDP. However, in 2013 exports contributed to 13.5% of U.S. GDP, a slight drop from 2012. That year, increased domestic investment and reduced goods imports played a greater role in U.S. GDP.
• Trade in goods drives the majority of both exporting and importing activity.
96% Total U.S. export
growth 2004‒2013
Trade Balance -$476
Total Exports
$2,280
Total Imports
$2,757
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Billions of US dollars
U.S. Trade in Goods and Services
Recession
$5 trillion
Total value of U.S. trade in 2013
Goods 83%
Services 17%
Imports
Goods 70%
Services 30%
Exports
Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis
11.0
12.4
13.6 13.6 13.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Shar
e of
GD
P (P
erce
ntag
e)
U.S. Exports as a Share of GDP
Personal consumption
-0.1
Private domestic
investment 0.5
Exports -0.1
Imports 0.6
Government -0.9
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Perc
enta
ge P
oint
Cha
nge
in S
hare
Change in Share of U.S. GDP 2012-2013
U.S. Trade in 2013
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
• Exports of goods and services supported 11.3 million jobs in 2013, an increase of 1.6 million jobs since 2009.
• In 2013, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported nearly 5,600 jobs.
• Nearly 305,000 U.S. companies exported goods in 2012 (latest data available), a record-high. Small- and medium-sized exporters (SMEs) accounted for 98% of exporters and 33% of the known export value.
• 16% of SMEs and 55% of large company exporters in 2012 exported to five or more countries.
• Companies that exported to five or more countries accounted for 88.6% of the known export value.
9.7 10.2 10.9 11.1 11.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions of Jobs Supported by Exports
ServicesGoods
SMEs 297,995
Large Companies
6,872
2012 Number of Exporters, by Company Size
Source: Census Bureau; Rasmussen and Johnson, 2013, “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update.” U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration
98% U.S. exporters that employ fewer than
500 employees
1.6 million more jobs supported by
exports since 2009
SMEs 449,400 Large
Companies 930,283
2012 Export Value, by Company Size
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Large Companies
SMEs
2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Known Export Value
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Large Companies
SMEs
2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Exporting Companies
1 market 2-4 markets 5-9 markets 10-24 markets 25-49 markets 50+ markets
Trade Supports U.S. Jobs
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
• Total U.S. goods trade was $3.8 trillion in 2013, up 47% from 2009. • Manufactured goods accounted for 87% of U.S. merchandise exports and 81% of
merchandise imports in 2013. • Goods imports fell by nearly $8 billion in 2013, the first time since 2009. Meanwhile,
goods exports rose by $33.9 billion, resulting in a $41.9 billion improvement in the trade deficit.
• Transportation equipment was the dominant export category in 2013, totaling $258.3 billion, or 16.3% of total goods exports.
• Transportation also showed the largest dollar growth among goods exports in 2013, increasing by $16.9 billion or 7.0% from 2012.
• Petroleum imports fell again in 2013, with the quantity of crude oil imports reaching the lowest point since 1995. The average annual price of crude oil also fell in 2013, dropping by 4.0% to $96.94.
• In 2013, the quantity of crude oil produced within the United States exceeded that of imports for the first time since the early 1990s.
Computer & Electronic Products
15.5%
Transportation Equipment
14.7%
Oil & Gas 12.6%
Chemicals 8.6%
Machinery, Except Electrical
6.5%
All Other Merchandise
42.1%
Merchandise Imports, 2013
Transportation Equipment
16.3%
Computer & Electronic Products
13.0%
Chemicals 12.6%
Machinery 9.5%
Petroleum & Coal Products
7.6%
All Other Merchandise
41.0%
Merchandise Exports, 2013
Merchandise Trade Highlights
Exports of petroleum products were a record-
high in 2013
Source: Census Bureau; Energy Information Administration
$2.27 trillion
$1.58 trillion
-$689 billion -1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Billi
ons
of c
urre
nt U
S do
llars
U.S. Merchandise Trade
Goods ImportsGoods ExportsGoods Trade Balance
32.4% Growth in real
U.S. goods exports since 2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U.S. Domestic Production of Crude
Oil (EIA)
7,893
U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (EIA)
7,759
Unit Price of Crude Imports (Census)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Unit Price (dollars per barrel) Th
ousa
nds
of B
arre
ls a
Day
Recession
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
Europe
Western Hemisphere
Asia & Pacific
EU
Other Europe
Canada
Mexico Brazil
Other Western
Hemisphere
Japan
China
Korea
Other Asia & Pacific
Africa
• Services exports hit a record high in 2013, up 5% from 2012 and 34% from 2009. • Despite a slight decline in 2009, services exports have risen faster than services imports
each year, leading to a growing services trade surplus. • Services accounted for 30% of total U.S. exports in 2013.
• Travel was the largest services export in 2013, accounting for 25% of overall services exports.
• Travel also accounted for the largest share of U.S. services imports in 2013. • From 2012 to 2013, financial services showed the fastest growth, with exports
increasing by 9.7%.
• U.S. services exports largely go to markets in Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America.
• Since 2009, services exports have grown by 121% to China, 40% to NAFTA partners, and 18% to EU countries.
Services Trade Highlights
The U.S. has held a services trade
surplus since 1971
Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Services trade surplus hit a record high in 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$687.4
$462.1
$225.3
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Billi
ons
of U
S do
llars
Services Exports
Services Imports
Balance
$173.1
$129.2 $123.4
$87.3 $84.1
$33.4
$24.5 $16.3 $16.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Billi
ons
of U
S do
llars
Services Exports, 2013
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
• U.S. exports span more than 230 destinations, with Canada and Mexico accounting for more than one-third of the total.
• Canada was the top export market in 2013, at $301.6 billion. Canada was followed by Mexico, ($226.1 billion), China ($121.7 billion), Japan ($65.2 billion), and Germany ($47.4 billion).
• Among top markets, China showed the highest dollar growth compared to 2012, up over $11 billion.
• Of markets receiving more than $500 million in U.S. goods exports, potential TPP partner Brunei showed the fastest growth in 2013 by percent change, up 254 percent compared to the previous year.
• While a smaller share of overall trade, U.S. goods exports to markets in South and Central America have shown the most rapid growth since 2009, up nearly 77%. The trade surplus with this region was a record high in 2013.
Top Export Markets in 2013
U.S. export growth to Free Trade Partners
2009‒2013
57%
More than one-third of U.S. merchandise exports went to Canada & Mexico
1/3
Source: Census Bureau
Canada $301.6
EU-28 $262.2
Mexico $226.1
China $121.7
Japan $65.2
Brazil $44.1
Hong Kong $42.3
Korea $41.7
Singapore $30.7
Switzerland $26.8
Australia $26.1
Taiwan $25.5
United Arab Emirates $24.4
India $21.8
Saudi Arabia $19.0
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e, 2
012-
2013
Top Export Markets and Growth, 2013
Circle size indicates 2013 export value Dollar values shown in billions of US dollars
16%
NEI Markets
44%
Trans-Pacific Partnership
46%
FTA Partners
Share of 2013 Goods Exports by Region
17%
TTIP
2%
CAFTA-DR
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
Global Trade and Economy • World Development Indicators, World Bank
Released June 2013
• IMF World Economic Outlook Released April 2014
• WTO International Trade Statistics 2012 Released April 2014
• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014
U.S. Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau
Released June 2014
• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014
• “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update,” Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration Released February 2014
• Profile of U.S. Exporting Companies, Census Bureau Released April 2014
U.S. Merchandise Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau
Released June 2014
• Energy Information Administration Released July 2014
U.S. Services Trade • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau
Released June 2014
• International Services Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released June 2014
U.S. Export Markets • Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau
Released June 2014
Source Notes
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
International Trading & Economic Regions
EU-28: Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership
(TTIP)
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) Partners
Australia
Brunei
Australia
Austria
Chile
Bahrain
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Bulgaria
New Zealand
Chile
Croatia
Peru
Colombia
Cyprus
Singapore
Costa Rica
Czech Republic
Vietnam
Dominican Republic
Denmark
El Salvador
Estonia
Central America-Dominican
Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR)
Guatemala
Finland
Honduras
France
Israel
Germany
Costa Rica
Jordan
Greece
Dominican Republic
Mexico
Hungary
El Salvador
Morocco
Ireland
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Italy
Honduras
Oman
Latvia
Nicaragua
Panama
Lithuania
Peru
Luxembourg
National Export Initiative (NEI)
Priority Markets Singapore
Malta
South Korea
Netherlands
Brazil
Poland
China
Portugal
Colombia
Romania
India
Slovakia
Indonesia
Slovenia
Saudi Arabia
Spain
South Africa
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
Vietnam
Region Definitions
Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration
U.S. Trade Statistics:
• TradeStats Express – National and state-level trade data http://tse.export.gov
• Jobs Supported by Exports – National and state-level detail http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment
• Exporter Database – Export data by company size http://tse.export.gov/edb
Local Area Data:
• Metropolitan Export Series – Export data by metro area http://tse.export.gov/metro
• Metro Report – Reports and data on metropolitan areas http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/metroreport
• State Reports – Short statistical report for each state http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/statereports/
Additional Reports and Information:
• Reference Information – Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and more http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/referenceinfo
• Trade Statistics – Access all statistical reports and databases http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/tradestatistics
• Trade Policy and Analysis – Home page for Trade Policy and Analysis http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian
Comments and questions should be directed to:
Natalie Soroka Office of Trade and Economic Analysis
Trade Policy and Analysis, Industry and Analysis International Trade Administration
[email protected] T 202.482.5839
For More Information:
This page intentionally left blank
The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.
Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis 1401 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20230
T 202.482.5839 F 202.482.4614 www.trade.gov/mas/ian
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