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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Randy Smith SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. Randy Smith SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH. Industry Analysis. Past Performance. Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005. 3.4%. 0.6%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Randy Smith

SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Page 2: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 3: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 4: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Supply % Change

Demand % Change

Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005

3.4%

0.6%

Page 5: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

90000000

100000000

110000000

120000000

130000000

140000000

150000000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Actual Seas Adj

Total U.S.Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005

CAGR – 2.1%

Page 6: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 J FMAM J J A

Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent ChangeJan 2001 – August 2005

Page 7: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

100000000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Actual Seas Adj Linear (Seas Adj)

Total U.S.Room Demand – Actual and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005

Page 8: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Seas Adj Linear (Seas Adj)

Total U.S.Room Demand – Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to 2005 August

Peak CAGR – 2.7%

CAGR – 1.9%

Page 9: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-16

-11

-6

-1

4

9

14

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 J F MAMJ J A

Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent ChangeJan 2001 – August 2005

Page 10: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

50000000

70000000

90000000

110000000

130000000

150000000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Supply Demand Linear (Demand)

Total U.S.Seasonally Adjusted Room Supply and DemandJanuary 1989 to August 2005

39.9%

37.1%

Page 11: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

58

60

62

64

66

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Total United StatesOccupancy PercentTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005

61.9 %December 1991

Sep 95 & May 96

64.9%

63.3% Feb 2001

58.5%

Aug 02 & May 03

Aug 0562.2%

Page 12: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

40

50

60

70

80

90

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Actual Seas Adj

Total U.S.Occupancy PercentJanuary 1989 to August 2005

Page 13: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

50

55

60

65

70

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

12 MA Seas Adj

Total U.S.Occupancy Percent – 12 Month MA and Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 1989 to August 2005

12 MA Lags

Page 14: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

50

55

60

65

70

75

1999 2001 2003 2005

12 MA Seas Adj

Total U.S.Occupancy PercentJanuary 1989 to August 2005

12 MA Lags

Page 15: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Occ % Chg

ADR % Chg

Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005

DivergenceDivergence?

Page 16: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

50

60

70

80

90

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Total United StatesAverage Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005

$54.93Jan 1989

$86.36

June2001 $89.13

Aug 05

Peak CAGR – 4.4%

Long Term CAGR – 2.9%

Page 17: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

RevPAR % Chg

Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2005

-2.6%Oct 91

6.5%

Feb 97

6.5% Feb 01

8.1%Feb 05

-10.6%Jun 02

8.1%

Page 18: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Total U.S.Seasonally Adjusted Room RevenuesJanuary 1989 to August 2005

Peak CAGR – 7.1%

Long-Term CAGR – 4.9%

Page 19: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.4

2.6

4.9

3.84.03.3

7.1

0.8

3.1

7.6

0

5

10

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

2004 2005

Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeAugust YTD

Page 20: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

60

65

70

75

80

Last Year

This Year

Total United StatesOccupancy Percent 28-Day Moving AverageAug 7, 2005– October 16, 2005

Page 21: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

80

85

90

95

Last Year

This Year

Total United StatesADR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 7, 2005 – October 16, 2005

Page 22: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Last Year

This Year

Total United StatesRevPAR 28-Day Moving AverageAugust 7, 2005– October 16, 2005

Page 23: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 24: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

1.01.8

0.9

-2.7

0.7

-0.2

4.6 4.33.2

0.3

4.4

2.8

-5

0

5

10

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

SupplyDemand

Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 25: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

3.52.8

7.3

6.4

7.3

4.6

7.3

3.42.3

2.62.4

3.7

0

5

10

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

OccupancyADR

Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 26: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

7.3

12.211.2

4.3

12.1

6.3

9.0

11.29.8

11.1

6.5

10.4

0

5

10

15

20

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

RevPARRoom Revenue

Chain ScalesRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 27: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 28: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

68.6

64.8

69.8

58.1

69.6

57.8

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

Location SegmentsOccupancy PercentAugust 2005 YTD

Page 29: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

120.2

78.884.8

60.3

128.8

71.8

50

70

90

110

130

150

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

Location SegmentsAverage Daily Rate (In Dollars)August 2005 YTD

Page 30: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.0

1.10.3

1.3

-1.7

0.8

3.84.3

3.1 3.1

-0.5

2.8

-5

0

5

10

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

SupplyDemand

Location SegmentsSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 31: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

3.8

2.1

6.2

5.2

7.3

3.93.22.6

1.8

3.2

1.3

4.9

0

5

10

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

OccupancyADR

Location SegmentsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 32: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

5.8 6.3

10.2 9.810.6

7.1

4.4

6.1

8.6

10.310.2

5.3

0

10

20

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

RevPARRoom Revenue

Location SegmentsRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD

Page 33: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 34: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.8

-1.4

-1.5

-1.8

-4.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

1.3

1.8

2.2

-5 -3 -1 1 3

Dallas

Philadelphia

New York

Los Angeles

Phoenix

Miami

San Francisco

Orlando

Honolulu

Chicago

Boston

Atlanta

New Orleans

Washington

San Diego

Key 15 MarketsRoom Supply Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year

Page 35: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

1.01.6

2.12.6

2.92.9

3.33.43.4

3.63.9

4.24.3

4.55.3

0 3 6

OrlandoBoston

HonoluluWashington

San FranciscoDallas

PhiladelphiaSan DiegoNew York

Los AngelesChicago

MiamiPhoenixAtlanta

New Orleans

Key 15 MarketsRoom Demand Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year

Page 36: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

63.463.9

64.767.7

68.7

71.3

76.4

82.274.8

73.374.5

70.6

58.9

86.2

75.8

45 55 65 75 85

DallasAtlanta

ChicagoBoston

New OrleansPhoenix

PhiladelphiaSan Francisco

WashingtonMiami

San DiegoLos Angeles

OrlandoNew YorkHonolulu

Key 15 MarketsOccupancy PercentAugust 2005 YTD

Page 37: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.81.1

1.32.93.0

3.43.73.73.8

4.14.1

4.45.2

5.76.9

0 2 4 6 8

WashingtonSan Diego

BostonOrlando

DallasChicago

PhiladelphiaNew York

New OrleansLos Angeles

AtlantaSan Francisco

PhoenixMiami

Honolulu

Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year

Page 38: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

76.69

77.91

92.70

101.20

103.16

103.80

105.23

110.41

122.57

124.62

125.51

129.06

131.58

137.08

189.92

$50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 $170 $190 $210

Dallas

Atlanta

Orlando

Philadelphia

Los Angeles

Phoenix

Chicago

New Orleans

San Francisco

San Diego

Boston

Washington

Miami

Honolulu

New York

Top 15 MarketsADR August 2005 YTD

Page 39: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.3

3.4

3.6

3.6

4.1

5.9

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.1

8.1

10.6

11.4

11.6

11.6

0 5 10 15

New Orleans

Dallas

Atlanta

Boston

San Francisco

Orlando

Chicago

Philadelphia

Phoenix

Los Angeles

San Diego

Washington

New York

Miami

Honolulu

Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeAugust 2005 YTD Year over Year

Page 40: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Top 10 MarketsLTM August 2005 RevPar Change

22.1

26.4

8.5

7.6

4.0

6.0

4.5

4.4

5.9

7.0

9.9

4.7

9.7

8.5

12.0

9.6

11.1

10.9

7.8

4.8

MELBOURNE

MOBILE

WPB-BOCA

SARASOTA

NEW YORK

OHAU

FT LAUDERDALE

MIAMI

FT WORTH

ORLANDOocc rate

Source: Smith Travel Research

16.6%

14.2%

15.8%

16.4%

12.0%

16.0%

18.9%

32.2%

34.2%

16.2%

Page 41: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Bottom 10 MarketsLTM August 2005 RevPar Change

7.5%

6.3%

5.7%

5.5%

5.4%

5.3%

4.5%

3.1%

1.0%

-1.5%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

BUFFALO

JACKSON, MS

ROCHESTER, NY

DAYTON

LONG ISLAND

KNOXVILLE

HOUSTON

GREENSBORO

ALBANY

NORFOLK

Source: Smith Travel Research

Page 42: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Dalla

s, T

X

Houston, T

X

Detro

it, M

I

Nashvi

lle, T

N

St Louis

, MO

-IL

Atlanta

, GA

Denver

, CO

Norfolk

-Virg

inia

Bea

ch, VA

Total U

nited S

tate

s

Min

neapolis

-St P

aul,

MN-W

I

Tampa-

St Pet

ersb

urg, F

L

Chicag

o, IL

Orla

ndo, FL

Seattl

e, W

A

Phoenix, A

Z

Philadel

phia, P

A-NJ

New O

rlean

s, L

A

Anahei

m-S

anta A

na, CA

Los Angel

es-L

ong Bea

ch, C

A

Boston, M

A

San F

rancis

co/S

an M

ateo, C

A

San D

iego, C

A

Wash

ingto

n, DC-M

D-VA

Mia

mi-H

iale

ah, FL

Oah

u Isla

nd, HI

New Y

ork, N

Y

Top 25 MarketsRevPAR ($)August 2005 YTD

Page 43: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

10

11

12

13

14

15

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Supply

Demand

Room Rev

Linear (Demand)

California Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1989 – August 2005

Page 44: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Supply

Demand

Room Rev

Florida Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1989 – August 2005

Page 45: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

1

2

3

4

5

6

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Supply

Demand

Room Rev

New York City Market Share of Total USRoom Supply, Demand and Room RevenueJanuary 1987 – August 2005

Page 46: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Hurricane Katrina Impactas of 10/07/2005

SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Page 47: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

New Orleans

• 265 Hotels – 39K Rooms

• $1 Billion annual room revenue

• #17 based on room revenue

• #18 based on room supply

Page 48: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8 Impacted Tracts

Page 49: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8 Impacted TractsYTD OCC through July 2005

62.5%72.8% 75.2%

77.3%

65.2%

59.3%

66.0%

64.2%

Page 50: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8 Impacted Tracts – Verified Open/Close*

*as of 10/07/2005

Tract Name

Hotels open prior to Katrina

Open To the Public

Open to Relief

Workers / Evacuees Closed

Closed as a Percent of

Total

New Orleans CBD/French Quarter 129 14 20 95 73.6%

New Orleans East/Slidell 74 2 17 55 74.3%

New Orleans Metarie/Airport 63 8 30 25 39.7%

Louisiana South 141 48 91 2 1.4%

Biloxi/Gulfport MSA 130 18 30 82 63.1%

Mississippi South/Hattiesburg 97 48 47 2 2.1%

Mobile, Alabama (City of) 54 10 42 2 3.7%

Mobile, Alabama (Area) 46 36 4 6 13.0%

Total 734 183 281 269 36.6%

Page 51: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8 Impacted Tracts – Verified Open/Close*

*as of 10/07/2005

Tract Name

Rooms available prior to Katrina

Open To the Public

Open to Relief

Workers / Evacuees Closed

Closed as a Percent of

Total

New Orleans CBD/French Quarter

22,264

1,428

5,392

15,444 69.4%

New Orleans East/Slidell 6,588

136

1,888

4,564 69.3%

New Orleans Metarie/Airport 7,124

330

3,349

3,445 48.4%

Louisiana South 11,379

3,046

8,231

102 0.9%

Biloxi/Gulfport MSA 16,224

1,319

4,268

10,637 65.6%

Mississippi South/Hattiesburg 6,017

3,142

2,765

110 1.8%

Mobile, Alabama (City of) 5,574

834

4,625

115 2.1%

Mobile, Alabama (Area) 3,839

2,746

229

864 22.5%

Total 79,009

12,981

30,747

35,281 44.7%

Page 52: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Impact on the Region / Nation

Region: • Lower room supply through Dec ‘05• Much higher room demand through Dec ’05Nation:• Displaced meetings will go elsewhere• Displaced leisure travelers will go elsewhere• National supply number decreases• National demand number increases• National 2005 RevPAR higher than prior

estimates

Page 53: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 54: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Last Year

Aug 2005 Aug 2004 Change % Chg

In Construction 93,361 97,660 (4,299) -4.4%

Final Planning 20,685 20,064 621 3.1%

Planning 181,413 177,705 3,708 2.1%

In Pre-Planning 63,559 76,527 (12,968) -16.9%

Total Development 359,018 371,956 (12,938) -3.5%

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

Page 55: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Markets with Highest Construction ActivityJune 2005

Market # Rooms % Existing Supply

Washington, DC 4,383 4.8

New York 3,222 4.0

Boston 2,731 5.8

Chicago 2,472 2.4

Denver 1,844 5.1

Page 56: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

22.3

28.2

33.0

36.9

54.2

62.8

0.0 12.0 24.0 36.0 48.0 60.0 72.0

Economy

Midscale w/out F&B

Midscale w/F&B

Upscale

Upper Upscale

Luxury

Months

Pipeline Projects by ScaleAverage Duration From Pre-Planning to Open

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction

Page 57: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

10.3

12.9

13.7

15.8

20.3

23.9

0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0 30.0

Economy

Midscale w/out F&B

Midscale w/F&B

Upscale

Upper Upscale

Luxury

Months

Pipeline Projects by ScaleAverage Duration From Construction Start to Open

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction

Page 58: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Top 10 Construction Brands2001 – July 2005

Brand Rooms -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------HI Express 26,260 Hampton* 22,159 Hilton Garden 16,046 Comfort* 15,077 Courtyard 14,106 Residence Inn 13,303 Marriott 13,034 Best Western 10,761 Extended Stay America 9,820 Country Inns & Suites 9,002 * Includes Inns and Inns & Suites

Page 59: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Opened ClosedNet

Total United StatesAverage Monthly Rooms Added, Closed and NetJan 2001 To May 2005

Recession and 9/11 ClosingsHurricane and Condo Closings

1,886 NetOpeningsFeb 2005

Wynn Las Vegas2,611 Rooms

Page 60: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total U.S.Summary of Condotel, Private Ownership and Timeshare in Pipeline

Source: STR Condotel Pipeline

289 projects in pipeline with 108,458 units

227 Condotel projects

93,425 condotel units

3,024 units under Private Ownership

62 Pure Timeshare projects

12,009 timeshare units

Page 61: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total U.S.Summary of Condotel, Private Ownership and Timeshare in Pipeline

Source: STR Condotel Pipeline

Condotels86.14%

Pure Timeshare

11.07%Private

Ownership2.79%

Page 62: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total U.S.Summary of Condotels in Pipeline

Source: STR Condotel Pipeline

227 Condotel projects in pipeline with 93,425 units

24,193 hotel rooms

61,674 condominiums under a rental program

3,898 residences under a rental program

3,660 apartments under a rental program

Page 63: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total U.S.Summary of Condotels in Pipeline

Source: STR Condotel Pipeline

Hotels 25.90%

Condominiums 66%

Residences 4.20%

Apartments 3.90%

Page 64: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total U.S.Top 10 Condotel Markets

246824952964301930673613

74697585

2083621012

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

NV FL CA IL NJ CO AZ MA SC NY

Source: STR Condotel Pipeline

Page 65: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Page 66: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.20.1

0.40.6

-0.3

-1

0

1

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

Total United StatesKatrina Impact - 2005

Page 67: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

2.8

4.4

3.5

0.91.5

1.1 0.7

2.41.6

0.4

1.4

3.03.6

-3.4

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Supply % Chg

Demand % Chg

Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 68: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

2.8

4.43.6

0.4

1.51.1 0.7

2.41.6

0.4

1.4

3.03.6

-3.4

-6

-3

0

3

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Supply % Chg

Demand % Chg

Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 69: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-1.2

0.31.4

0.8

2.63.5

-5.7

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 70: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-1.2

0.31.4

-5.7

3.5 3.1

0.8

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 71: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

63.3

59.7

63.8

59.158.9

62.9

61.3

55

60

65

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2000 – 2006P

Page 72: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

63.3

59.7

64.2

59.158.9

63.3

61.3

55

60

65

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2000 – 2006P

Page 73: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total United StatesNominal Room Rates1998 – 2006P

85.3784.20

83.01 83.12

86.24

90.38

94.89

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Source: STR

Page 74: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Total United StatesNominal Room Rates1998 – 2006P

85.3784.20

86.24

90.52

95.05

83.1283.01

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Source: STR

Page 75: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-1.5

0.1

55.44.8

4

-1.4

-3

0

3

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesADR Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 76: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-1.5

0.1

5.05.4 5.0

4.0

-1.4

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesADR Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 77: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.4

7.8 7.56.5

-2.7

-7

6.1

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 78: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

0.4

6.57.8 8.2

-2.7

-7.0

6.1

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P 2006P

Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2000 – 2006P

Page 79: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

United States Lodging Industry Estimated Profits (Billions $) 1990 – 2005E

-5.7

-2.8

0

2.4

5.5

8.5

12.5

17

20.922.1 22.5

16.2

14.212.8

16.7

20.8

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E

$ 30.5%24.6%

Source: PWC (2004 & 2005 Estimates)

Page 80: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

* Occupancy Gains Continue

* Demand Strength Broadens

* Increased Profitability

U.S. Lodging Outlook

* Supply Growth Remains Benign

* Aggressive Pricing Strategies

Page 81: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Lodging Industry Issues

Source: STR

• Rising Costs – Energy (Gas), Insurance, Labor (visa caps)

• Amenity Creep – “Bed Wars”, HDTV, Internet Access

• Rising Interest Rates

• Rebuilding from Hurricanes

• Transportation Problems - Airlines, Fuel Costs, Infrasturcture

• Hiring from Outside (Sr. Level) - Coke, Schweppes, Kraft

• Demand Leakage – Condo Hotels, Cruise, Timeshare

• Demand Growth…where are we in the cycle?

• Benign Supply Growth

• “Old Habits Hard to Break” ?

• Global Threats – Terrorism, Bird Flu

• Construction Costs – Interest Rates, Steel, Concrete

Page 82: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

74.7

74.3

79.9

79.4

78.2

77.4

70 75 80 85

Auckland

Beijing

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sydney

Tokyo

Asia PacificOccupancy PercentAugust YTD 2005

Page 83: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-4.5

8.3

3

-2

-1.3

1.9

-5 0 5 10

Auckland

Beijing

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sydney

Tokyo

Asia PacificOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2005

Page 84: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

99.01

94.51

99.44

145.84

195.66

142.72

80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Auckland

Beijing

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sydney

Tokyo

Asia PacificAverage Daily Rate (In US $)August YTD 2005

Page 85: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8.6

14.5

14.9

23.7

4.5

11

0 10 20 30

Auckland

Beijing

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sydney

Tokyo

Asia PacificAverage Daily Rate Percent Change (In Local Currency)August YTD 2005

Page 86: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

64.8

62.6

67.3

64.1

75.2

60 65 70 75 80

Mexico

Mexico City

Canada

Toronto

Caribbean

North AmericaOccupancy PercentAugust YTD 2005

Page 87: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

3.4

5

2.6

3.5

0.9

0 5

Mexico

Mexico City

Canada

Toronto

Caribbean

North AmericaOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2005

Page 88: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

108.27

120.78

191.35

98.74

170.93

70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210

Mexico

Mexico City

Canada

Toronto

Caribbean

North AmericaAverage Daily Rate (In US $)August YTD 2005

Page 89: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

10.4

1.5

11.3

11.1

12.1

0 5 10 15

Mexico

Mexico City

Canada

Toronto

Caribbean

North AmericaAverage Daily Rate Percent Change (In Local Currency)August YTD 2005

Page 90: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

68.3

68.9

61.6

60.9

50.4

50 55 60 65 70 75

Buenos Aires

Quito

Rio de Janeiro

Santiago

Sao Paulo

Central & South AmericaOccupancy PercentAugust YTD 2005

Page 91: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

8.2

7.3

7.5

14.6

14.1

5 10 15 20

Buenos Aires

Quito

Rio de Janeiro

Santiago

Sao Paulo

Central & South AmericaOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2005

Page 92: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

95.75

75.63

89.1

139.94

72.02

70 90 110 130 150

Buenos Aires

Quito

Rio de Janeiro

Santiago

Sao Paulo

Central & South AmericaAverage Daily Rate (In US $)August YTD 2005

Page 93: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

18.6

3

-5.5

-3.4

-1.3

-10 0 10 20

Buenos Aires

Quito

Rio de Janeiro

Santiago

Sao Paulo

Central & South AmericaAverage Daily Rate Percent Change (In Local Currency)August YTD 2005

Page 94: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

76.8

63

71

70.9

74.6

65

67.8

65.3

60 65 70 75 80

Amsterdam

Berlin

Brussels

London

Madrid

Paris

Rome

Vienna

EuropeOccupancy PercentAugust YTD 2005

Page 95: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

2.3

-2.3

0.2

8.5

-1.5

2.6

5.6

7

-5 0 5 10

Amsterdam

Berlin

Brussels

London

Madrid

Paris

Rome

Vienna

EuropeOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2005

Page 96: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

149.67

104.24

114.15

190.65

189.07

117.45

226.6

133.42

100 140 180 220 260

Amsterdam

Berlin

Brussels

London

Madrid

Paris

Rome

Vienna

EuropeAverage Daily Rate (In US $)August YTD 2005

Page 97: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

1.5

-2.7

6.2

1.4

4.5

2.9

2.8

-4.4

-5 0 5 10

Amsterdam

Berlin

Brussels

London

Madrid

Paris

Rome

Vienna

EuropeAverage Daily Rate Percent Change (In Local Currency)August YTD 2005

Page 98: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

73.6

75.3

65.8

86

66.7

69.5

60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Cairo

Doha

Dubai

Johannesburg

Muscat

Riyadh

Middle East & AfricaOccupancy PercentAugust YTD 2005

Page 99: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

-2.5

-2.5

6.7

-0.4

25.9

10.9

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cairo

Doha

Dubai

Johannesburg

Muscat

Riyadh

Middle East & AfricaOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust YTD 2005

Page 100: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

80.29

187.58

87.49

203.45

133.47

123.31

70 100 130 160 190

Cairo

Doha

Dubai

Johannesburg

Muscat

Riyadh

Middle East & AfricaAverage Daily Rate (In US $)August YTD 2005

Page 101: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

9.6

74.5

5.5

41.6

12.5

52.5

0 20 40 60 80

Cairo

Doha

Dubai

Johannesburg

Muscat

Riyadh

Middle East & AfricaAverage Daily Rate Percent Change (In Local Currency)August YTD 2005