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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Outlook
For International Monetary Fund January 14, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040
2
• Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth
• Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade
• Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards
• The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s
• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports
3
U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
25
50
75
100
125
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Consumption
Production
Net imports
9%
19% 10%
History Projections 2011 2035
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Petroleum
4 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel
Projections History 2011
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Reference
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019
6
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Tight oil
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
Projections History 2011
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
New light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by 2040
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
New LDV fuel efficiency miles per gallon
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
2011 Projections History
Summary of LDV standards
2012-2016: Increase to 34.1 mpg CAFE average in 2016 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)
2017-2025: Increase to 47.4 mpg CAFE average in 2025 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution)
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
8
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2012
AEO2013
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines
9
Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Projections History 2011
60% Motor gasoline
E85 Jet fuel
CNG/LNG 11%
13% 4%
29%
47%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
2%
Pipeline fuel 3%
4%
Other 4%
Diesel 22%
1%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades
10
Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009
imports
exports
net exports
net product exporter
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines
11
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports 45%
37%
Projections History 2011
60%
2005
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Global liquids supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
OPEC
Other non-OECD
OECD
44%
25%
31%
40%
26%
34%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Natural Gas
13 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Shale gas production leads growth in production through 2040
14
U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
Projections History 2011
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History
Industrial*
Electric power
Commercial
Residential
Transportation**
33%
14%
6%
32%
12%
33%
19%
3%
31%
13%
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.
Gas to liquids 2%
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?
16
U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
Pipeline fuel
Light-duty vehicles
2011 History Projections
95%
3%
1%
1%
28%
38%
3%
31%
1% Buses
Freight trucks
Gas to liquids
Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
17
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case
18
U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Alaska LNG exports
Exports to Mexico
Exports to Canada
Lower 48 LNG exports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Coal and Electricity
19 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040
20
U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projections
History 2011
Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2011 0.9 2012-2040 0.9
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source
21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours
25%
19%
42%
13%
1%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2011 Projections History
17%
16%
35%
30%
1%
1993
53%
13%
19% 11%
4%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases
22
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2005 2020 2035 0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2005 2020 2035 0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2005 2020 2035
U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Natural gas
2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural gas Natural gas
Renewables
Renewables Nuclear
Nuclear Coal
Coal
2010
24%
10%
20%
45%
28%
15%
18%
38%
34%
22%
27%
16%
34%
23%
38%
4%
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis
23
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
History Projections
2011 2011 dollars per Btu
History Projections 2011
Competitive parity
Energy prices to the electric power sector
Coal
Natural gas
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal
24
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million short tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
Consumption
Domestic Supply
Net imports
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040
25
Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Wind
Solar
Geothermal Waste
Biomass
Industrial CHP
Power sector
Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible)
2011 Projections History
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines
26
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
History Projections 2011
Carbon dioxide emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP
Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP
Energy use per capita
2005
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level
27
Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Projections History 2011 2005
2005 2020 2040 (billion metric tons)
6.00 5.45 5.69
- - -9.0% -5.1%
(percent change from 2005)
AEO2013
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013
For more information
28
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual
Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013