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U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Oregon Field Office. Oregon Hazelnut Production Forecast September 12, 2008. Quick Facts about the 2008 Hazelnut Objective Yield (HOY) Survey. Total sample size = 180 samples 1 sample = 1 orchard - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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U.S. Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
Oregon Field Office
Oregon Hazelnut Production Forecast
September 12, 2008
Quick Facts about the 2008
Hazelnut Objective Yield (HOY) Survey
Total sample size = 180 samples1 sample = 1 orchard 2 trees per orchard 90 samples carried from last year90 samples painted this year Of the 180 samples, 177 were usable
Total nuts picked = 68,999 Of those, 15,373 were sub-sampled 88.7% of sub-sampled nuts were good (13,636 nuts)
Oregon Hazelnut Production
-Released September 9, 2008-
2004 2005 2006 20072008
forecast
Pct.
Chg.
Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Pct.
37,500 27,600 43,000 37,000 34,000 -8
Hazelnut ProductionForecast vs. Final
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Tho
usan
ds o
f ton
s
August Forecast Final
Picked July 28, 2008
Picked July 28, 2008
Picked July 28, 2008
Put on the brakes!
• It was determined that the crop was under-developed. By the time we were able to get in touch with the picking crews, 31 out of 180 samples had been picked.
• Procedures were modified for the return to the orchards. We swapped picking colors. Blue had been scheduled to be picked this year and orange next year.
Nuts Picked Per TreeHazelnut Objective Yield Lab
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Num
ber
of N
uts
2008 Good Nut Production 2008 Good Nut Production Percentage by Industry GroupingsPercentage by Industry Groupings
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Small Medium Large Jumbo
11.9% 10.4%
47.9%
29.8%
13,636 good nuts sampled in 2008
Percentage of Good Nuts by Size Group, 2004-2008
Small Medium Large Jumbo0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20042005200620072008
Percentage of Good Nuts by Size Group, 1998-2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Per
cen
t of
Goo
d N
uts
Small Medium Jumbo Large
1/ The average number of nuts per tree is a calculation. It is the number of good nuts sampled per tree expanded by the number of terminal and primary limbs recorded from each tree. There were 252 Barcelona trees sampled in 2008.
Average number of expanded nuts per tree (for all sizes) by county, Barcelona 2007 - 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Nu
mb
er
of
nu
ts, e
xp
an
de
d
2007 2008
1/ The average number of nuts per tree is a calculation. It is the number of good nuts sampled per tree expanded by the number of terminal and primary limbs recorded from each tree. There were 62 Ennis trees sampled in 2008.
Average number of expanded nuts per tree (for all sizes) by county, Ennis 2007 - 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Nu
mb
er
of
nu
ts, e
xp
an
de
d
2007 2008
Percent of good nuts sampled by size group, Barcelona
52%
32%
18%
44%
19%
51%
30%
16%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Small/Med Large Jumbo
2006 2007 2008
Percent of good nuts sampled by size group, Ennis
6%
30%
64%
6%
30%
64%
6%
39%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Small/Med Large Jumbo
2006 2007 2008
1/ The average number of nuts per tree is a calculation. It is the number of good nuts sampled per tree expanded by the number of terminal and primary limbs recorded from each tree. There were 354 trees sampled in 2008.
Average number of expanded nuts per tree, by county and year planted, 2008
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Nu
mb
er
of
nu
ts, e
xp
an
de
d
1984 and earlier Post 1984
1/ The average number of nuts per tree is a calculation. It is the number of good nuts sampled per tree expanded by the number of terminal and primary limbs recorded from each tree. There were 252 Barcelona trees sampled in 2008.
Average number of expanded nuts per tree,by county and year planted, Barcelona only, 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Clackamas Lane Marion Yamhill
Nu
mb
er
of
nu
ts, e
xp
an
de
d
1984 and earlier Post 1984
Percentage of Good NutsHazelnut Objective Yield Lab
75%
77%
79%
81%
83%
85%
87%
89%
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Per
cent
Goo
d
Percent Brown StainHazelnut Objective Yield Lab
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Per
cent
Results of 2008 Lab Sampled Nuts
Lab Size Group
Good Nuts Sampled
Defective Nuts
Sampled
Brown Stain Nuts
Percent
Defective
Industry Size Groups
Size 1 161 110 0 40.5 % Small
Size 2 1,460 208 2 12.5 % Small
Size 3 1,416 261 3 15.6 % Medium
Size 4 1,876 247 3 11.7 % Large
Size 5 2,895 331 6 7.4 % Large
Size 6 1,768 238 7 11.9 % Large
Size 7 2,372 212 6 8.2 % Jumbo
Size 8 1,688 158 1 8.6 % Jumbo
Totals 13,636 1,765 28 11.3 %
Brown stain count is included in defective nuts
Total nuts sampled = 15,373
Dry Weight per Good NutHazelnut Objective Yield Lab
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Gra
ms
Average Nut SizeHazelnut Objective Yield Lab
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Siz
e (R
ang
e: 1
to
8)
19.5
20
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
Siz
e (m
m)
Nuts per Tree vs. Nut Size
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Nu
mb
er
of
Nu
ts
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Nu
t S
ize
Nuts per Tree Avg Size per Good Nut
Nuts per Tree vs. Average Good Nut Dry Weight
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Nu
mb
er
of
Nu
ts
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
Gra
ms
Nuts per Tree Grams per Good Nut
Thank You