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1/9/2018
1
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop & Livestock Market Outlook
Jan. 4, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
515-294-9911
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Area Planted (mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.4 91.0
Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 175.4 173.5
Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,578 14,520
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,295 2,437
Imports (mil. bu.) 32 67 57 50 50
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,922 17,007
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,280 5,120 5,463 5,575 5,550
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,200 5,224 5,439 5,525 5,525
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,401 1,422 1,452 1,460 1,475
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,867 1,898 2,293 1,925 1,900
Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,748 13,664 14,647 14,485 14,450
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,731 1,737 2,295 2,437 2,557
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.20 3.30
Source: USDA
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 91.0
Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.5 48.4
Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,425 4,360
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 92 191 197 301 445
Imports (mil. bu.) 33 24 22 25 25
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,752 4,830
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,940 1,970
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 146 122 141 141 140
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,225 2,325
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,306 4,435
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 191 197 301 445 396
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.30 9.40
Source: USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: USDA/AMS
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Sale
Weight
Sale
Date
Sell Price,
$/cwt ADG DOF
VOG,
$/cwt
VOG,
$/head
650 1/24/18 $163.33 2.50 41 $120.17 $120.17
750 3/5/18 $153.94 2.50 81 $106.55 $213.10
850 4/14/18 $143.87 2.50 121 $93.80 $281.41
Backgrounding and Stocker Example December 15th 550 Pound Calves in Iowa @ $171.18/cwt
Source: USDA/AMS, CME
Group
Projected VOG 80% of Projected VOG
COG ($/cwt) $106.55 $85.24
$85.00 $43.10 $0.48
$95.00 $23.10 ($19.52)
$105.00 $3.10 ($39.52)
$115.00 ($16.90) ($59.52)
$125.00 ($36.90) ($79.52)
Increased Value ($/hd)
Trucking, interest, etc. must be subtracted to identify returns
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Data Source:
USDA/AMS
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2014 = +$197.24 [+$41 to +$269]
2015 = -$225.12 [-$530 to +$43]
2016 = -$110.62 [-$359 to +$113]
2017f = +$139.67 [-$74 to +$415]
2018f = -$44.54 [-$135 to +$49]
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: USDA/AMS
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Sep 2017
Source: USDA/ERS
Sep-17/Aug-17 Sep-17/Sep-16 Year-to-Date
Country Percent Percent 1,000 lbs Percent Share
Japan -13% 40% 142,497 29% 31%Mexico -11% 8% 20,185 7% 15%Canada -5% 8% 8,634 4% 11%South Korea -11% 3% 26,340 8% 16%Hong Kong -2% -8% 16,641 9% 10%China (Taiwan) 2% 5% 7,904 8% 5%Vietnam -24% 17% 10,779 98% 1%Netherlands 16% 8% 2,186 8% 1%Philippines 35% 21% 5,267 29% 1%Chile -47% -24% 3,868 19% 1%Bahamas -48% -35% -817 -11% 0%United Arab Emirates 26% 18% -681 -6% 1%Dominican Republic -41% -8% 1,048 8% 1%China (Mainland) 83% 3,462 0%
Other Countries 15% 16% 15,396 14% 6%
Total -8% 14% 262,710 14%
(Carcass Weight Basis)
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 2,556 mil lbs 2017: 2,855 (+12%) 2018: 2,970 (+4%)
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: CME
Group
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2013 = +$6.21 [-$25.60 to +$24.57]
2014 = +$61.85 [+$13.15 to +$107.25]
2015 = +$7.93 [-$18.40 to +$26.25]
2016 = -$1.26 [-$35.52 to +$32.92]
2017f = +$12.77 [-$12.68 to +$47.62]
2018f = +$13.70 [-$10.03 to +$33.79]
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: USDA/AMS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Sep-17/Aug-17 Sep-17/Sep-16 Year-to-Date
Country Percent Percent 1,000 lbs Percent Share
Japan -8% -3% 3,535 0% 22%
Mexico -2% 1% 201,425 18% 32%
Canada 14% 1% -1,280 0% 10%
South Korea 16% 38% 83,831 30% 9%
China (Mainland) 1% -31% -117,964 -29% 7%
Hong Kong 31% 29% -13,402 -12% 2%Australia -31% -25% 4,223 3% 4%
Philippines 43% 14% 14,278 26% 2%
China (Taiwan) -18% 55% 8,800 64% 1%
Colombia 28% 90% 57,330 84% 3%
Honduras -17% 1% 2,194 4% 1%
Dominican Republic 7% -19% 17,228 31% 2%
Guatemala 44% 38% 1,870 7% 1%
Chile -27% -20% 26,520 97% 1%
Other Countries 0% 8% 16,773 13% 3%
Total 1% 2% 305,360 8%
U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Sep 2017
Source: USDA/ERS
(Carcass Wt Basis)
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs 2017: 5,588 (+7%) 2018: 5,900 (+6%)
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
1/9/2018
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/3/2018
3.46
3.88
4.07
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/3/2018
9.43
9.73 9.68
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2017/18 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2018/19 Margins w/ ‘17 Costs/Basis
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
