6
1 ©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5M and greater. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 billions -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 50 100 150 200 250 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Apartment Industrial Retail CBD-Office Sub-Office • Sales of significant commercial properties totaled $29.5b in April. is figure is essentially unchanged from the level a year earlier. e pause button was hit by the apartment sector in April while most other property sectors continued to see healthy growth. In Q1’15 the apartment sector posted 72% yoy growth and in one sense that pace cannot continue forever. Looking to the first four months of 2015 in total, vol- ume is still up 34% from the same time in 2014. • Cap rates are still trending down relative to their levels a year earlier. roughout 2015, however, the trends are generally flat with the exception of the industrial sector. Here cap rates have trended up — 30 bps from early in the year — but the composition of sales is largely the factor here. Late into 2014 and earlier this year, a number of high quality portfolios with flex assets sold and dragged down the aver- age cap rate for industrial. Portfolio and entity-level deals for industrial have been sharply curtailed into April. • e trend towards portfolio and entity-level deals was a key story in 2015 Q1. Across all property types, these mega-deals accounted for 37% of all transac- tion volume. e pace of these mega-deals slowed into April accounting for only 28% of all volume, though in truth the slowdown started in March. Still, it is not likely that the market is at the end of the line on these mega-deals as there is still a flood of capital looking for safe, stable yield worldwide. • e Moody’s/RCA national composite is up 16% from a year earlier in Q1. Commercial property pric- es are, on average, now 8.5% higher than the peak levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis. Still, there is variation by sector and location. On page 3 of this report we examine the implications on the variation of this price recovery with the ability to re- finance the wave of loans coming due in 2016 and 2017. Month in Review Monthly Volume & Pricing Trends Year-Over-Year Change Transaction Volume Commercial Property Price Indices APRIL 2015 PUBLISHED MAY 2015

US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

1©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

billions

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

50

100

150

200

250

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Apartment

IndustrialRetail

CBD-Office

Sub-Office

• Sales of significant commercial properties totaled $29.5b in April. This figure is essentially unchanged from the level a year earlier. The pause button was hit by the apartment sector in April while most other property sectors continued to see healthy growth. In Q1’15 the apartment sector posted 72% yoy growth and in one sense that pace cannot continue forever. Looking to the first four months of 2015 in total, vol-ume is still up 34% from the same time in 2014.

• Cap rates are still trending down relative to their levels a year earlier. Throughout 2015, however, the trends are generally flat with the exception of the industrial sector. Here cap rates have trended up — 30 bps from early in the year — but the composition of sales is largely the factor here. Late into 2014 and earlier this year, a number of high quality portfolios with flex assets sold and dragged down the aver-age cap rate for industrial. Portfolio and entity-level deals for industrial have been sharply curtailed into April.

• The trend towards portfolio and entity-level deals was a key story in 2015 Q1. Across all property types, these mega-deals accounted for 37% of all transac-tion volume. The pace of these mega-deals slowed into April accounting for only 28% of all volume, though in truth the slowdown started in March. Still, it is not likely that the market is at the end of the line on these mega-deals as there is still a flood of capital looking for safe, stable yield worldwide.

• The Moody’s/RCA national composite is up 16% from a year earlier in Q1. Commercial property pric-es are, on average, now 8.5% higher than the peak levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis. Still, there is variation by sector and location. On page 3 of this report we examine the implications on the variation of this price recovery with the ability to re-finance the wave of loans coming due in 2016 and 2017.

Month in ReviewMonthly Volume & Pricing Trends

Year-Over-Year Change

Transaction Volume

Commercial Property Price Indices

APRIL 2015 P U B L I S H E D M A Y 2 0 1 5

Page 2: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

2©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

• The price trends across all property sectors continue to outperform for the 6 Major Metros relative to the Non-Major Metros. The RCA CPPI posted 17.9% yoy growth in Q1’15 for this set of markets versus 14% yoy growth for the Non-Major Metros.

• Emerging submarkets of the New York Metropoli-tan region have posted the strongest absolute gains in Q1. The NYC-boroughs posted a 39% yoy growth with prices now 82% above the peak levels set before the Global Financial Crisis. Put simply, Brooklyn is hot. Commercial real estate investors have come to discover this borough in recent years in the wake of the cultural shift to the area by artists, musicians and younger workers.

• There is a diversity of stories in the performance for the top markets among the Non-Major Markets. The strongest absolute gains over the last year have been seen in some of the markets that were most devastat-ed in the housing downturn. Sacramento, Las Vegas, various Florida markets – have turned in 25% to 33% yoy price growth in Q1’15.

• Other Non-Major Metro areas with more diverse and dynamic economies have not seen as much of a price gain in Q1’15. Denver, Seattle, the Texas Markets, Philadelphia and Baltimore are markets to which workers have flocked, particularly in key knowledge sector segments of the economy. Prices in these locations are now 16% to 21% above the high-water marks hit before the Global Financial Crisis.

• As the analysis in the following section will detail, with price recovery at a different pace across mar-kets, the degree of difficulty of refinancing the 2006 and 2007 mortgage originations will vary by market as well.

Price Trends By Region

Price Trends: Q1’15 CPPI ResultsRCA/CPPI Regions & Markets

NYC-Boroughs

NYC-Manhattan

SF-San Francisco

New York Metro

San Francisco Metro

SF-San Jose

SF-Oakland

Boston

LA-LA County

DC Metro

Los Angeles Metro

LA-OrangeCounty

LA-InlandEmpire

NYC-Burbs

Chicago

Dallas/Houston/Austin

Denver

Seattle

Philly/Baltimore

San Diego

Miami/South Florida

Sac/Central CA

Atlanta

Tampa/SW FL

Orlando/Central FL

Jacksonville/North FL

Las Vegas

Phoenix

6 Major Metros - All Types

Non-Major Metros - All Types

120%

117%

117%

112%

109%

102%

96%

94%

91%

121%

118%

117%

116%

108%

99%

94%

92%

87%

84%

81%

74%

71%

39%

28%

19%

28%

18%

17%

27%

24%

15%

13%

14%

18%

12%

5%

10%

11%

17%

19%

10%

19%

25%

27%

22%

10%

11%

33%

31%

8%

Q1’15 % of Peak Q1’15 % YOY Change

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

NEMA SE MW SW W

NEMA

Southw est

West

Southeast

Midw est

129%

114%

109%

96%

82%

22%

14%

16%

16%

7%

US Regions – All Types

* commercial property types defined as office, industrial and retail

APRIL 2015

Page 3: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

3©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

CMBS Outlook: Refi nancing the 2006 and 2007 Originations

• Th e time has fi nally come: the 2006 and 2007 origi-nations are coming due. Using RCA’s proprietary CPPI Index we estimate that just over 1/3 of all CMBS loans of this vintage maturing in 2016 and 2017 will require either additional capital in the deal or be worth less than the original loan. Our key fi nd-ing is that the wave of 2016 and 2017 maturities will not lead to massive defaults and foreclosures. If any-thing, there is an opportunity here for those involved in Mezz lending as well as potential for higher sales volume as owners extract remaining value directly.

• Th e apartment sector stands apart with the least trouble. Th is result is not surprising given that strong investor demand for apartments has driven prices 27% above the 2007 levels. Only 9% of all apartment loans will require any sort of additional capital or face further refi nancing challenges. By contrast, 45% of all retail loans will face such challenges. Th e retail price recovery is simply not as far along.

• As shown in the table on the following page, the 6 Major Metros have the fewest problem loans but some stand out. Chicago has the highest concentra-tion of loans where additional capital is needed to refi nance. Forty percent of all outstanding loans, $2.7b in our analysis will require additional capital to refi nance. Manhattan by contrast, a larger mar-ket, faces just under $400m of such loans. Within the NYC Metro, Northern New Jersey stands out as

a challenged area, with 60% of outstanding loans, $2.5b, requiring additional capital.

• Generally speaking the biggest problems are in the Tertiary markets where almost half of all loans will face diffi culties. Tertiary areas of the Southeast have $5.9b worth of loans where additional capital will be required to refi nance. Other Tertiary markets face challenges as well but not all. Th ose in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have seen stronger price recovery caught up in the tail-winds of the Major Metros in these regions.

• Th is analysis assumes that all the collateral is marked to current values, but as noted, the RCA CPPI has been growing at double digit rates recently. Rework-ing the analysis to assume that the market sees a fur-ther 10% increase in prices, only 25% of these loans outstanding will face challenges, not 1/3.

Methodology:For collateral underlying each CMBS loan, we marked each asset to current market values using the implied growth rate in RCA’s CPPI Index. We compared this estimated value with the original loan value and those where the current value is less than the original balance are categorized as Diffi cult to Refi nance. Those where a new loan at 70% LTV of the cur-rent value would not be suffi cient to pay off the outstanding balance of the existing loan are categorized as More Capital Required while the remainder are Easy to Refi nance.

This analysis includes a number of additional assumptions and exclusions. There are $296B of securitized fi rst mortgage loans originated in 2006 and 2007 and originally sched-uled to mature in 2016 and 2017 and our analysis focused on a core set of $153B. We do not look at any mezzanine debt that may be in place. This core set excludes assets outside of the fi ve major property sectors analyzed by RCA. We also exclude assets in certain portfolios where we cannot allocate the portfolio sale price to the property level. The analysis also only includes outstanding performing loans, and excludes anything already in special servicing.

Maturing 2006/2007 CMBSBy Property Type

Check out our Loan Search product for more granular information on commercial real estate loans!

Retail

Office

Hotel

Industrial

Apartment

$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70

6MM

Secondary

Tertiary

Billions

By Market Tier

DIFFICULT REFI

MORE CAP REQ

REFI EASY

APRIL 2015

Page 4: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

4©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

2016/17 Refinance CompositionCMBS Loans Originated in 2006/07 Difficult REFI % Market Total More Cap Req % Market Total Refi Easy % Market Total Total

Mid-Atlantic

Baltimore $17,250,000 1.3% $478,980,892 35.6% $849,482,018 63.1% $1,345,712,910 DC - 0.0% 32,300,000 1.0% 3,295,851,340 99.0% 3,328,151,340 DC MD burbs 44,000,000 1.9% 276,755,000 12.1% 1,962,508,487 86.0% 2,283,263,487 DC VA burbs 4,000,000 0.1% 731,741,688 16.3% 3,761,641,218 83.6% 4,497,382,906 Philadelphia 147,072,769 5.4% 1,262,694,103 46.4% 1,309,556,731 48.2% 2,719,323,602 Pittsburgh 13,750,000 1.7% 33,782,500 4.2% 750,822,307 94.0% 798,354,807 Richmond/Norfolk 5,200,000 0.3% 223,935,414 13.6% 1,420,384,697 86.1% 1,649,520,111 Tertiary Mid-Atlantic 32,424,307 0.9% 597,323,440 17.3% 2,821,226,096 81.8% 3,450,973,843 Total $263,697,076 1.3% $3,637,513,036 18.1% $16,171,472,894 80.6% $20,072,683,006

MidwestChicago 90,784,410 1.4% 2,652,859,533 40.5% 3,806,644,946 58.1% 6,550,288,889 Cincinnati 101,130,000 16.2% 394,536,137 63.3% 127,368,431 20.4% 623,034,568 Cleveland 324,492,500 24.9% 575,653,529 44.2% 401,298,963 30.8% 1,301,444,992 Columbus 125,391,000 10.6% 456,766,142 38.7% 598,666,564 50.7% 1,180,823,707 Detroit 309,872,196 17.1% 942,742,917 52.1% 557,521,669 30.8% 1,810,136,782 Indianapolis 127,410,040 7.1% 783,907,473 43.6% 885,465,015 49.3% 1,796,782,528 Kansas City 365,694,020 33.7% 529,892,599 48.8% 191,095,219 17.6% 1,086,681,838 Minneapolis 158,327,668 12.8% 853,774,814 68.9% 227,767,105 18.4% 1,239,869,586 St Louis 150,225,750 18.1% 431,799,016 52.0% 247,783,188 29.9% 829,807,954 Tertiary Midwest 764,392,108 11.3% 3,504,653,153 51.8% 2,492,795,592 36.9% 6,761,840,853 Total $2,517,719,691 10.9% $11,126,585,313 48.0% $9,536,406,692 41.1% $23,180,711,697

NortheastBoston - 0.0% 407,184,000 8.0% 4,659,073,649 92.0% 5,066,257,649 Hartford 6,000,000 1.3% 185,940,916 39.3% 281,403,601 59.5% 473,344,518 Long Island 21,436,615 1.0% 1,290,343,349 60.6% 817,549,859 38.4% 2,129,329,823 Manhattan - 0.0% 396,010,000 2.4% 15,808,180,787 97.6% 16,204,190,787 No NJ 72,173,127 1.7% 2,541,078,515 60.0% 1,621,854,646 38.3% 4,235,106,288 NYC Boroughs 10,050,000 0.6% 27,759,579 1.5% 1,761,726,421 97.9% 1,799,536,000 Stamford 21,920,085 1.4% 1,260,769,631 79.3% 307,939,481 19.4% 1,590,629,197 Westchester 11,400,000 1.4% 548,997,648 69.0% 234,732,840 29.5% 795,130,488 Tertiary Northeast 43,282,206 1.2% 661,083,325 18.6% 2,856,381,505 80.2% 3,560,747,036 Total $186,262,033 0.5% $7,319,166,963 20.4% $28,348,842,789 79.1% $35,854,271,786

SoutheastAtlanta 229,134,016 7.0% 1,938,416,543 59.3% 1,101,646,711 33.7% 3,269,197,270 Broward 62,749,592 7.4% 331,355,339 39.2% 452,189,378 53.4% 846,294,309 Charlotte 14,337,030 0.8% 905,820,595 48.1% 962,661,269 51.1% 1,882,818,894 Jacksonville 176,148,167 30.1% 225,080,535 38.5% 183,291,580 31.4% 584,520,282 Memphis - 0.0% 546,571,756 83.5% 107,708,036 16.5% 654,279,791 Miami 9,525,698 0.6% 615,857,835 41.5% 856,857,669 57.8% 1,482,241,201 Nashville - 0.0% 449,402,930 52.8% 401,516,877 47.2% 850,919,808 Orlando 18,122,924 1.4% 817,300,205 62.3% 476,154,936 36.3% 1,311,578,065 Palm Beach 11,144,800 1.3% 376,798,010 42.4% 500,063,923 56.3% 888,006,733 Raleigh/Durham - 0.0% 627,142,803 43.3% 821,316,945 56.7% 1,448,459,748 Tampa 6,900,000 0.6% 623,215,784 53.5% 533,688,915 45.9% 1,163,804,699 Tertiary Southeast 354,736,339 3.1% 5,853,769,314 50.6% 5,369,945,311 46.4% 11,578,450,965 Total $882,798,566 3.4% $13,310,731,648 51.3% $11,767,041,551 45.3% $25,960,571,765

SouthwestAustin - 0.0% 114,927,085 11.1% 919,352,818 88.9% 1,034,279,903 Dallas 54,008,923 1.3% 522,879,976 12.3% 3,674,942,454 86.4% 4,251,831,353 Denver 17,000,000 1.0% 130,057,000 8.0% 1,488,309,851 91.0% 1,635,366,851 Houston 27,940,000 0.8% 237,118,378 7.0% 3,119,161,518 92.2% 3,384,219,896 Phoenix 1,099,267,011 39.7% 1,235,642,472 44.6% 432,606,340 15.6% 2,767,515,823 San Antonio 9,980,000 1.0% 540,861,880 55.6% 422,256,783 43.4% 973,098,664 Tertiary Southwest 64,535,000 1.3% 2,601,637,247 53.8% 2,173,052,212 44.9% 4,839,224,458 Total $1,272,730,934 6.7% $5,383,124,038 28.5% $12,229,681,975 64.8% $18,885,536,948

WestEast Bay 10,169,370 1.1% 159,502,500 16.7% 783,519,428 82.2% 953,191,298 Inland Empire - 0.0% 344,920,824 24.2% 1,081,160,627 75.8% 1,426,081,451 Las Vegas 304,321,600 23.1% 885,332,077 67.1% 129,630,243 9.8% 1,319,283,921 Los Angeles 41,381,461 0.4% 1,023,149,796 10.8% 8,423,834,235 88.8% 9,488,365,491 Orange Co 30,172,222 0.9% 707,008,805 21.3% 2,588,841,596 77.8% 3,326,022,623 Portland 6,500,000 0.5% 492,029,570 35.9% 870,521,398 63.6% 1,369,050,968 Sacramento 1,450,000 0.2% 293,055,000 31.7% 629,521,250 68.1% 924,026,250 Salt Lake City - 0.0% 412,506,271 57.3% 307,168,204 42.7% 719,674,475 San Diego - 0.0% 634,346,365 21.3% 2,339,616,552 78.7% 2,973,962,917 San Francisco - 0.0% 22,146,200 2.1% 1,040,291,427 97.9% 1,062,437,627 San Jose 190,000,000 16.3% 2,977,000 0.3% 969,117,956 83.4% 1,162,094,956 Seattle - 0.0% 127,021,008 5.3% 2,263,773,244 94.7% 2,390,794,252 Tertiary West 126,204,506 2.3% 2,165,618,125 39.6% 3,180,869,820 58.1% 5,472,692,451 Total $710,199,159 2.2% $7,269,613,541 22.3% $24,607,865,982 75.5% $32,587,678,682 Total US $5,123,208,301 3.3% $48,046,734,540 30.7% $102,661,311,883 65.6% $156,541,453,883

Market Table: CMBS Refinancing Outlook - All Property TypesAPRIL 2015

Page 5: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

5©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Dev Sites TotalTransactions Reported Closed Past 12 months

Vol($M)

#Props

Vol ($M)

#Props

Vol($M)

#Props

Vol ($M)

#Props

Vol($M)

#Props

Vol ($M)

#Props

Vol($M)

#Props

Mid-Atlantic

Baltimore $491.6 38 $573.3 64 $641.8 50 $1,546.7 54 $181.1 17 $285.4 24 $3,720.0 247 DC 3,424.6 45 168.9 10 762.0 37 1,732.1 41 430.2 6 348.7 23 6,866.5 162 DC MD burbs 484.4 32 653.0 33 877.3 42 1,267.5 38 132.0 13 90.3 15 3,504.4 173 DC VA burbs 2,837.1 98 391.5 31 1,352.2 51 1,926.3 28 476.0 18 374.2 38 7,357.2 264 Philadelphia 1,700.8 54 440.6 70 678.0 61 1,005.8 53 278.5 20 230.3 23 4,334.0 281 Pittsburgh 241.4 13 30.2 8 169.0 21 118.2 5 306.3 23 23.6 5 888.8 75 Richmond/Norfolk 295.8 33 482.6 34 688.8 52 666.9 44 317.5 35 42.1 8 2,493.6 206 Tertiary Mid-Atlantic 981.4 91 1,941.9 162 2,141.6 183 773.3 63 396.3 49 245.7 27 6,480.2 575 Total $10,457.2 404 $4,681.9 412 $7,310.6 497 $9,036.7 326 $2,518.0 181 $1,640.4 163 $35,644.7 1,983

MidwestChicago 6,878.0 164 3,464.3 381 3,180.1 271 3,217.0 157 723.4 51 667.2 82 18,130.0 1,106 Cincinnati 584.8 31 452.8 53 528.0 47 215.6 22 150.4 18 39.5 8 1,971.1 179 Cleveland 337.2 36 216.9 21 328.1 29 201.8 26 194.2 18 50.8 6 1,328.9 136 Columbus 255.3 29 629.7 57 695.3 45 941.1 56 139.6 19 42.3 8 2,703.1 214 Detroit 880.1 59 481.6 79 983.6 89 414.2 44 242.6 24 34.1 9 3,036.3 304 Indianapolis 611.2 54 1,016.9 107 428.2 71 362.2 23 232.9 21 27.6 7 2,679.1 283 Kansas City 218.3 17 223.2 41 624.1 52 666.5 45 253.0 17 56.5 7 2,041.7 179 Minneapolis 1,783.4 69 1,062.3 128 934.6 69 1,136.9 79 374.3 30 108.8 23 5,400.4 398 St Louis 1,121.6 64 475.0 72 346.9 48 417.5 35 378.7 19 89.9 13 2,829.7 251 Tertiary Midwest 1,779.0 181 1,825.1 248 3,268.9 423 2,127.1 224 1,064.2 201 278.1 54 10,342.4 1,331 Total $14,448.8 704 $9,847.8 1,187 $11,317.9 1,144 $9,700.1 711 $3,753.3 418 $1,394.7 217 $50,462.6 4,381

NortheastBoston 10,211.0 185 1,268.5 131 1,290.4 123 2,386.5 104 766.7 25 788.4 59 16,711.5 627 Hartford 104.3 10 61.2 9 214.0 23 215.4 40 86.0 7 6.4 2 687.4 91 Long Island 262.7 27 225.6 43 482.4 52 128.0 8 187.8 10 18.4 4 1,304.9 144 Manhattan 27,629.2 185 425.1 17 6,717.9 309 11,977.1 514 5,779.5 29 3,121.2 66 55,650.1 1,120 No NJ 2,346.0 127 1,729.1 161 1,785.7 92 1,495.6 79 574.6 33 466.4 45 8,397.4 537 NYC Boroughs 1,424.9 58 1,886.6 164 2,659.0 282 5,277.8 473 133.8 8 1,848.5 120 13,230.7 1,105 Stamford 418.1 27 163.7 17 440.5 32 681.4 26 145.3 12 79.4 8 1,928.5 122 Westchester 585.1 25 158.0 20 489.6 30 247.7 19 170.3 8 69.7 5 1,720.4 107 Tertiary Northeast 496.4 54 292.4 47 909.5 97 725.0 67 420.4 31 93.1 18 2,936.8 314 Total $43,477.8 698 $6,210.1 609 $14,989.0 1,040 $23,134.6 1,330 $8,264.5 163 $6,491.5 327 $102,567.7 4,167

SoutheastAtlanta 3,609.7 129 2,271.6 241 1,838.5 173 6,362.3 238 809.6 60 378.5 46 15,270.3 887 Broward 923.6 61 462.8 50 985.2 83 1,042.8 45 1,535.9 31 338.7 40 5,289.0 310 Charlotte 1,326.3 50 807.3 78 1,002.5 53 1,427.4 67 214.8 18 197.2 26 4,975.5 292 Jacksonville 490.5 24 340.0 18 588.2 33 900.6 44 158.6 7 39.4 8 2,517.4 134 Memphis 133.4 21 418.7 36 181.7 40 505.0 30 139.2 13 30.4 5 1,408.5 145 Miami 1,592.1 110 748.0 95 2,088.9 140 817.8 89 1,340.4 36 1,023.1 88 7,610.1 558 Nashville 647.2 48 729.8 66 442.1 63 1,252.0 67 479.6 23 148.5 33 3,699.3 300 Orlando 647.9 44 520.5 31 813.4 75 2,361.7 80 643.7 28 196.7 34 5,183.9 292 Palm Beach 902.2 42 184.4 30 1,480.1 62 955.3 31 333.7 14 271.6 35 4,127.3 214 Raleigh/Durham 1,331.7 81 449.6 43 428.0 39 2,197.7 78 197.6 11 87.5 15 4,692.2 267 Tampa 1,016.9 57 320.2 44 953.1 74 1,950.0 94 692.9 36 113.1 19 5,046.2 324 Tertiary Southeast 2,522.8 273 2,478.2 289 7,166.5 822 7,081.3 502 3,509.0 292 704.8 137 23,462.5 2,315 Total $15,144.3 940 $9,731.0 1,021 $17,968.4 1,657 $26,853.8 1,365 $10,055.1 569 $3,529.5 486 $83,282.2 6,038

SouthwestAustin 2,145.9 78 678.8 74 849.6 65 2,951.3 113 693.3 26 135.5 16 7,454.5 372 Dallas 3,323.0 181 2,515.0 269 2,490.0 194 6,740.7 347 1,009.5 76 522.8 66 16,601.0 1,133 Denver 2,862.8 168 1,179.7 161 1,055.7 103 4,209.1 148 473.0 33 285.5 35 10,065.9 648 Houston 3,244.8 127 1,438.1 153 1,790.2 178 5,351.6 281 783.9 58 672.3 63 13,280.9 860 Phoenix 2,055.2 110 1,432.7 161 1,402.4 150 3,270.9 167 477.4 35 399.2 63 9,037.7 686 San Antonio 734.0 40 315.8 29 375.9 48 1,512.5 69 394.4 36 102.0 9 3,434.6 231 Tertiary Southwest 1,199.8 131 1,078.4 191 2,317.9 338 3,623.8 290 1,503.3 185 141.2 29 9,864.2 1,164 Total $15,565.5 835 $8,638.6 1,038 $10,281.7 1,076 $27,659.8 1,415 $5,334.8 449 $2,258.5 281 $69,738.9 5,094

WestEast Bay 1,493.0 59 1,556.7 134 1,164.6 57 1,493.6 96 201.7 12 296.6 29 6,206.2 387 Inland Empire 584.9 75 1,877.8 158 1,067.8 116 1,412.1 86 217.5 21 363.6 35 5,523.7 491 Las Vegas 318.4 30 420.3 47 1,350.7 91 789.9 46 110.6 14 381.7 17 3,371.6 245 Los Angeles 7,533.2 259 4,728.6 507 6,394.9 397 6,722.9 651 1,791.3 51 1,300.7 122 28,471.5 1,987 Orange Co 1,878.4 112 1,867.8 166 1,109.5 87 802.9 64 1,337.1 30 418.9 25 7,414.6 484 Portland 944.2 57 708.8 75 707.6 55 1,707.2 99 430.9 14 118.6 18 4,617.3 318 Sacramento 695.2 51 364.5 46 811.3 69 971.4 77 92.8 12 49.7 9 2,984.9 264 Salt Lake City 648.2 45 339.2 40 795.9 31 280.5 16 108.1 6 86.0 16 2,257.8 154 San Diego 1,859.4 122 1,678.1 147 992.8 95 1,693.3 130 1,355.0 24 337.7 33 7,916.3 551 San Francisco 10,062.9 139 1,063.8 90 923.5 82 2,699.3 162 1,700.1 17 1,473.0 45 17,922.5 535 San Jose 4,826.6 98 2,920.2 208 1,002.7 55 1,284.2 65 567.3 18 524.1 30 11,125.2 474 Seattle 3,815.0 117 1,207.4 125 1,771.3 111 3,780.9 186 651.0 29 463.4 57 11,688.9 625 Tertiary West 1,526.7 149 2,331.4 255 6,506.8 315 1,929.2 191 2,114.6 118 701.7 59 15,110.5 1,087 Total $36,186.0 1,313 $21,064.5 1,998 $24,599.6 1,561 $25,567.5 1,869 $10,678.0 366 $6,515.7 495 $124,611.2 7,602 US Other 81.3 3 3,102.8 186 732.3 76 1,103.9 8 421.7 44 5,441.9 317 Total US $135,360.9 4,897 $63,276.8 6,451 $87,199.4 7,051 7,024 $41,025.4 2,190 $21,830.3 1,969 $471,749.2 29,582

Market Table: All Property TypesAPRIL 2015

Page 6: US Capital Trends-The Big Picture

6©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $2.5m and greater.

APRIL 2015

ABOUT REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICSReal Capital Analytics, Inc (RCA) is an indepen-dent data and analytics firm focused exclusively on the capital investment markets for commercial real estate. RCA offers the most in-depth, comprehensive and current information of activ-ity in the industry. Formed in 2000, RCA has offices in New York City, San Jose, and London. In addition to collecting transactional informa-tion for property sales and financing, RCA interprets the data includ-ing capitalization rates, market trends, pricing and sales volume. The firm publishes a series of Capital Trends reports and offers an online service that provides real-time, global transactional market informa-tion. For more information, visit: www.rcanalytics.com.

ABOUT US CAPITAL TRENDS®US Capital Trends is published by Real Capital Analytics, Inc.Copy-right ©2015 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.

It is a violation of Federal law to photocopy or reproduce any part of this publication, or forward it electronically, without first obtaining permission from Real Capital Analytics, Inc. To subscribe as an indi-vidual or to purchase a corporate license for your office, please call 1.866.REAL.DATA.

Information presented by RCA has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. While we have no reason to doubt its accuracy, RCA makes no representation or warranty regarding the information. The information is provided as is without warranties of any kind, express or implied, and may be subject to material revisions.

NOTES & METHODOLOGYThe information maintained by RCA and presented in this report encom-passes markets nationally and includes only properties or portfolios $2.5M or greater. Readers should note that there is substantial investment activ-ity, largely local in nature, that falls below this threshold and is not cap-tured in this report.

Records are maintained for transactions that represent the transfer of a controlling interest in a property or portfolio of properties that are $2.5M or greater. Transactions are assumed to be fee simple; lease-hold and commercial condominium interests are noted, if known. Transactions include both real estate asset sales as well as transac-tions involving real estate operating and investment entities. Thus, for example, merger and acquisition activity among entire REITs or

other real estate entities is included in this report unless noted oth-erwise. Sales of partial interest transactions will receive credit and be valued at the pro-rated share.

For this report, market classifications are defined as followed:

Major Metros: Boston, Chicago, DC Metro, LA Metro, NYC Metro and SF Metro

Secondary: Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Colum-bus, Dallas, Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Jack-sonville, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Nashville, Norfolk, Orlando, Philly Metro, Phoenix, Pittsburg, Portland, Raleigh/Durham, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego, Seattle, South Florida, St Louis and Tampa.

Tertiary: All other US markets.

Commercial Property Price Indices (RCA CPPI™): CPPI use advanced repeat-sale regression (RSR) methodology, which uses quali-fied repeat-sale observations to measure price change in commercial real estate. All CPPI are based on similar index methodology devel-oped by RCA and further information is available on our website. The US suite of CPPI includes 23 Moody’s/RCA CPPI national benchmarks and over 200 RCA US CPPI for regions, markets and property niches.

The Moody’s /RCA CPPI suite includes national composites for all property types and all commercial. Each of the apartment, hotel, CBD office, suburban office, retail and industrial sector indices are compos-ites with each based on Major Metro and Non-Major Metro indices.

The RCA US CPPI were developed and published by Real Capital Ana-lytics to complement the Moody’s/RCA CPPI but are not maintained, reviewed, endorsed, or otherwise affiliated with Moody’s Investors Service or its affiliates.

Ranking Methodology: Based on transactions $2.5M and greater. Full dollar value is assigned to each buyer, seller, or broker in joint venture transactions. Partial interest sales are included at the pro-rated share of the total property or portfolio value.Trend analysis may exclude certain transactions that exceed 5% of the data sample or that may otherwise skew results. A complete glossary and methodology can be found at www.rcanalytics.com.

Abbreviations:PPSF = Price Per-Square-FootBPS = Basis PointsYOY = Year-Over-Year

YTD = Year-to-DateQ1 = First Quarter of YearH1 = First Half of Year

REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICSwww.rcanalytics.com

US Headquarters110 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10011Toll-Free: 1.866.REAL.DATAPhone: 212.387.7103

US West Coast OfficePruneyard Towers1901 South Bascom AvenueCampbell, CA 95008Phone: 408.371.8880

Europe Office71 Broadwick StreetLondon, United Kingdom W1F 9QYPhone: +44.207.297.6860

Robert M White, Jr Founder & PresidentJim Costello Senior Vice PresidentNina Turner Director, Marketing CommunicationsDoug Murphy Senior Director, AnalyticsAndrew Pisanelli Director, AnalyticsYiqun Wang Director, AnalyticsHermann Lademann Senior Manager, AnalyticsSheng Li Senior AnalystPatrick Therriault Senior AnalystScott McDonald AnalystRachel Tipermas AnalystElizabeth Szep AnalystAlexis Maltin AnalystMichael Gilligan Principal Architect

Notes & Defi nitions

Loan Search – the largest database of commercial real estate financings linked to properties, borrowers and lenders.