US Army Corps of Engineers

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USACE Extreme Storm Team Update

Chuck McWilliams

Meteorologist

USACE, Omaha District

20 February 2013

(May 2011 MR-T Flood Storm Maximization)

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History

1991 – ER1110-8-2 “Use HMR’s or request site-specific studies through NWS Hydro-met”

2004 – NWS discontinues PMP services 2005 – Agreement between COE & USBR for

USBR to temporarily provide PMP services 2008 – Interagency Federal Work Group

established 2010 – USACE Work Group established

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Extreme Storm Events Work Group

Interagency Federal Work Group established by SOH (Subcommittee on Hydrology) of the ACWI (Advisory Committee on Water Information)

Purpose: Coordinate Studies & Databases used to develop Extreme Design Storms up to PMP

Current Membership: NRC, USBR, NWS, USACE, FEMA, FERC, USGS, NRCS, NHWC

Kickoff Meeting: Sep 4, 2008

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USACE Extreme Storm Team

Matt Fleming, Hydraulic Engineer, HEC Larry Schick, Meteorologist, NWS Angela Duren, Hydrologist, SPK Marian Baker, Hydrologist/Meteorologist, NWK David Williams, Hydraulic Engineer, SWT Doug Clemetson, Hydraulic Engineer, NWO

► Chuck McWilliams, Meteorologist, NWO► George Hayes, Geographer, NWO

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USACE Extreme Storm Data Needs

Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Studies

Hydrometeorological Reports (HMR’s) updates

Data Archiving & Analysis of Extreme Storm Events

Update Standard Project Storm Criteria

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http://www.weather.gov/oh/hdsc/studies/images/20080513_PMP_Map_r.png

HMR Regional Coverage Location of USACE Dams

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Extreme Storm Catalog

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Bucket Survey Form Original Isohyetal Map

Digitized Isohyetal Map

GIS for Transposition Studies

Data Archiving and Analysis System

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      Highest recorded rainfall Total Storm  

Storm ID

Basic assignment number (if

given) Date of storm

Approximate location of storm

center

Total rainfall

(in)

Storm duration

(hr)

Storm area (mi2)

Max average depth of rainfall

(in)

24-hr, 100 mi2 rainfall

(in)

1 MR 1-1 16-20 Dec 1895 Phillipsburg, MO 12.20 96 110000 5.6 7.2

2 MR 1-3A 6-7 Jul 1898 Blanchard, IA 12.50 30 7200 4.2 10.9

3 MR 1-3B 7-8 Jul 1898 Edgehill, MO 8.30 30 20000 3.2 7.8

4 MR 1-5 14-17 Jul 1900 Primghar, IA 13.60 78 100000 3.9 11.8

5 MR 1-6 4-8 Sep 1901 Ness City, KS 9.10 114 63000 3.5 8.3

6 MR 1-8 20-24 Sep 1902 Wakeeney, KS 8.10 108 81600 4.0 6.2

Area within 2-in

isohyetal (mi2)

Area within 4-in

isohyetal (mi2) Latitude Longitude

Storm Dew point

Max Dewpoint

In-place moisture

adjustmentWind

Vector Elevation

Extreme Storm Database

Links to Depth-Area-Duration Curves, Isohyetal Map, ScannedImages of Original Data, GIS Shapefiles, DSS files

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Current & Recent Projects Update Extreme Storm Catalog

Digitize Historic Storm Isohyetal Maps Convert Radar Imagery Compute Depth Area Duration

Chena Basin Site Specific PMP Study Incorporate HMR51/52 into HEC-HMS Afghanistan PMP/PMF Criteria Review Wyoming Statewide PMP Study Review MR&T Project Design Flood

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Max Precipitation 33 inches

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384 hr/16 day - NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimator Data (hourly radar) - Max Precipitation 23.47 inches

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature

Manual on Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (WMO/2009); Page 12

Storm Of Interest

Representative Dew Point Temps

Notes• Representative Dew Points should be outside of “rainfall area”• Minimum of two stations to be used (homogeneous air mass)• Stations need to be along the inflow trajectory• Consider time needed to transport moisture to rainfall site• Consider avoiding “intervening barrier”, if possible• Stations must show observations for more than half of the 12-hour

period under consideration

Moisture Source

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (Surface Analysis)

12Z 19 April 2011

12Z 24 April 201112Z 23 April 201112Z 22 April 2011

12Z 21 April 201112Z 20 April 2011

Notes/Observations• Frontal boundary across region… some shifting north/south• Strong/severe thunderstorms… periodic outflow boundaries• Steady fetch of moist air from Gulf of Mexico (southerly winds)• Little or no “intervening barriers” from moisture source to rainfall area

Graphics courtesy of NOAA/NWS

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (Surface Analysis)

12Z 25 April 2011

12Z 28 April 2011

12Z 27 April 201112Z 26 April 2011

Notes/Observations• Frontal boundary becomes progressive after 12Z 27 April 2011• Strong/severe thunderstorms… periodic outflow boundaries continue• Southerly winds continue from eastern Texas across Louisiana into heavy rainfall region• Frontal passage complete by 12Z 28 April 2011… followed by cooler/drier air mass

Graphics courtesy of NOAA/NWS

***Two Distinct Air Masses***

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (Surface Analysis)

12Z 29 April 2011

12Z 04 May 201112Z 03 May 201112Z 02 May 2011

12Z 01 May 201112Z 30 April 2011

Notes/Observations• Cyclogenesis across Central U.S. with another frontal system• Warm/moist southerly winds return to region by 12Z 30 April 2011• Front from “second system” more progressive than previous front• Moisture inflow shut off by 12Z 03 May 2011

Graphics courtesy of NOAA/NWS

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (Streamlines)

12Z 20 April 2011

12Z 25 April 201112Z 24 April 201112Z 23 April 2011

12Z 22 April 201112Z 21 April 2011

Notes/Observations• Flow of moisture from central Gulf of Mexico inland to rainfall center• Far eastern Texas… Louisiana… southwestern Mississippi general path

Graphics courtesy of Plymouth State Weather Center

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (NOAA HYSPLIT Model)

12Z 23 April 2011 12Z 25 April 201112Z 24 April 2011

Graphics courtesy of NOAA

McComb, MSNew Orleans, LABaton Rouge, LAPatterson, LALafayette, LALake Charles, LADeRidder, LAJasper, TX

Notes/Observations• MOISTURE INFLOW FOR 19-28 April 2011• Storm moisture from central Gulf of Mexico• SE Texas-Louisiana-SW Mississippi along path

• Surface Winds• 550 meters AGL

Winds• 1300 meters AGL

Winds

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Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature (Streamlines & HYSPLIT)

12Z 30 April 2011

12Z 03 May 2011

12Z 02 May 201112Z 01 May 2011

Notes/Observations• Flow of moisture from central Gulf of Mexico inland to rainfall center• Far eastern Texas… Louisiana… southwestern Mississippi general path

Graphics courtesy of Plymouth State Weather Center and NOAA

00Z 01 May 2011 12Z 01 May 2011 00Z 02 May 2011

• Surface Winds• 550 meters AGL

Winds• 1300 meters AGL

Winds

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Lake Charles, LAFort Polk, LAAlexandria, LALafayette, LAPatterson, LABaton Rouge, LAJasper, TXPort Arthur, TX

Obtain Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature

Notes/Observations• INFLOW FOR 29 April – 4 May2011• Storm moisture from central Gulf of Mexico• SE Texas-southern Louisiana along path

Notes/Observations• Diagram from HMR 34 (1956)• Moisture inflow pattern similar to 19 April – 4 May storms

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Manual on Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (WMO/2009); Page 11

Obtaining Storm Representative Dew Point Temperature

Notes

• Reduce Td to 1000 millibars pseudo-adiabaticallyAdjustment = 2.4° F per 1,000 feet of elevation

Then average…

Moist Lapse Rate

Td (Celsius)

Hei

gh

t (m

eter

s)

STATE CITY 1 May 04Z 1 May 05Z 1 May 06Z 1 May 07Z 1 May 08Z 1 May 09Z 1 May 10Z 1 May 11Z 1 May 12Z 1 May 13Z 1 May 14Z 1 May 15Z

Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F)

Texas Jasper 73 73 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74

Texas Port Arthur 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 72 71

Louisiana Lake Charles 72 73 73 73 72 72 72 72 72 71 71 70

Louisiana Fort Polk 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 72 71 70

Louisiana Alexandria 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 70

Louisiana Lafayette 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 70 70 71 70 70

Louisiana Patterson 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 72 70

Louisiana Baton Rouge 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 70 71

Average 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

12-hr Persisting 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71

STATE CITY 21 April 05Z 21 April 06Z 21 April 07Z 21 April 08Z 21 April 09Z 21 April 10Z 21 April 11Z 21 April 12Z 21 April 13Z 21 April 14Z 21 April 15Z 21 April 16Z

Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F) Adjusted (°F)

Texas Jasper 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 72 72 72 70 69

Louisiana DeRidder 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 70 70

Louisiana Lake Charles 71 71 70 71 71 70 70 71 71 71 70 70

Louisiana Lafayette 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 71 72 71 70 68

Louisiana Patterson 73 73 73 72 72 70 72 72 73 73 73 72

Louisiana Baton Rouge 73 72 72 72 71 73 73 73 74 73 71 71

Mississippi McComb 72 72 71 71 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 71

Louisiana New Orleans 71 71 71 71 70 71 71 71 72 71 71 69

Average 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 71 70

12-hr Persisting 69 69 69 69 69 69 70 70 71 72 71 70

12-Hour Persisting Td = 72° F : 19-28 April 201112-Hour Persisting Td = 71° F : 29 April – 4 May 2011

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Obtain Storm Maximum Dew Point Temperature

Climatic Atlas of the United States (Page 59); Environmental Data Services

Maximum Persisting12-Hour 1000-mb DewPoints (°F)

(19-28 April 2011)• April = 74.5° F• May = 77.0° F• 21 April = 75° F• 06 May** = 76° F

**Adjusting 15 days toward seasonal maximum

April

May

Maximum Persisting12-Hour 1000-mb DewPoints (°F)

(29 April-04 May 2011)• April = 74.5° F• May = 77.0° F• 01 May = 76° F• 16 May** = 77° F

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Time Period 12-Hour Persisting Dew Point Temperature (°F)

Observed Storm Td

Maximum Td(Climate Atlas)

Maximum Td15 Days “Warmer”

(Climate Atlas)

19-28 April 72 75 76

29 April-4 May 71 76 77

In Place Maximization Adjustment

Hydrometeorological Report No. 55A (NOAA/1988)

Steps

1. Locate the Dew Point Temperature (x-axis)2. Go down (y-axis)3. Note the corresponding precipitable waters (PW)4. The ratio is the in-place maximization adjustment

Maximum Td = 76Storm Td = 72

PW(76) = 3.04”PW(72) = 2.50”

Appendix C, Page 242

Example for 19-28 AprilPW(76) = 3.04 inchesPW(72) = 2.50 inchesRatio = 3.04/2.50 = 1.22

Time PeriodIn-Place

Adjustment

In-Place Adjustment

(15 days “warmer”)

19 - 28 April 1.16 1.22

29 April - 4 May 1.28 1.34

Note: There’s approximately a 6% increase due to “seasonal” adjustment”

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Dew Point maximization 19-28 April 1.22 15 days closer to the warm seasonDew Point maximization 29 April-04 May 1.34 15 days closer to the warm season

Note: Max Precipitation = 29.08” (previously 23.47”)

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Future Projects

Update SPS Criteria (EM1110-2-1411) Update IDF Criteria (ER1110-8-2) Other Site-Specific PMP studies Review of District PMP studies Review of AE prepared PMP studies Combine Database with USBR and others Set up Web Site to Disseminate Data

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Questions ??