URBAN CENTURY - ASOCIATIA ROMANA DE STIINTE REGIONALE

CITIES OF THE FUTURE: RESEARCH CHALLENGES IN THE

‘URBAN CENTURY’ *

Karima KOURTIT*, Peter NIJKAMP

Karima Kourtit

KTH - Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

and Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland

E-mail: [email protected]

* Corresponding author

Biographical Notes

Karima Kourtit is currently a researcher at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in

Stockholm, Sweden and also at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, Poland,

following the researcher position at the Department of Spatial Economics at the VU

University Amsterdam. Her main research interests cover entrepreneurship, ethnic migration,

innovation, geographic location and spatial clustering of industries including the spatial

distribution of firms, cultural heritage, and sustainable regional and urban development. In

recent years she has focused her research in particular on new qualitative and quantitative

methods for business and policy analysis, as well as on spatial-behavioural analysis of

economic agents. She also plays an active role in several nationals and international scientific

networks and professional associations. From 2009 she has served as a member of the

management board and now is appointed as a supportive scientific advisor of the scientific

advisory board of the Joint Programming Urban Europe and of various Dutch ministries.

Karima Kourtit is leader and expert of various international research projects related to

sustainable diversity, environmental impact of cultural heritage, and complex space-

economy of sustainable urban development. In all these fields she has published books and

numerous articles.

Peter Nijkamp is Professor in Regional and Urban Economics and in Economic Geography

at the Free University, Amsterdam. His main research interests cover plan evaluation, multi-

criteria analysis, regional and urban planning, transport systems analysis, mathematical

modelling, technological innovation, and resource management. In the past years he has

focused his research in particular on quantitative methods for policy analysis, as well as on

behavioural analysis of economic agents. He has a broad expertise in the area of public

policy, services planning, infrastructure management and environmental protection. In all

these fields he has published many books and numerous articles. He is member of editorial

* This paper is a tribute to the ‘founding mother’ of the Romanian Regional Science Association

mailto:[email protected]

Karima Kourtit, Peter Nijkamp – Cities of the future: research challenges in the ‘urban century’

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boards of more than 30 journals. He has been visiting professor in many universities all over

the world. He is past president of the European Regional Science Association and of the

Regional Science Association International. He is also Fellow of the Royal Netherlands

Academy of Sciences, and is immediate past vice-president of this organisation. Since June

2002 he serves as president of the governing board of the Netherlands Research Council

(NWO). In addition, he is past president of the European Heads of Research Councils

(EUROHORCs). In 1996, he was awarded the most prestigious scientific prize in the

Netherlands, the Spinoza award.

“The inhabitants of a city, it is true, must always ultimately derive their subsistence, and the

whole materials and means of their industry from the country. But those of a city, situated

near either the seacoast or the banks of a navigable river are not necessarily confined to

derive them from the country in the neighbourhood. They have a much wider range, and may

draw them from the most remote corners of the world, either in exchange for the

manufactured produce of their own industry, or by performing the office of carriers between

distant countries, and exchanging the produce of one for that of another. A city might in this

manner grow up to great wealth and splendour, while not only the country in its

neighbourhood, but all those to which it traded, were in poverty and wretchedness.” (Adam

Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776, p. 406).

Abstract

The geography of our planet shows increasingly an urban orientation. Cities or urban

agglomerations have a great variety of advantages, but exhibit also negative externalities.

This paper seeks to highlight the research challenges inherent in an urbanised world.

Particular attention is given to the solution potential offered by ‘smart cities’. The paper

concludes with lessons for urban governance.

Keywords: smart cities, urban governance

JEL Classification: R11, R58

1. Emergence of the ‘Urban Century’

Human settlement patterns have over the past century shown a trend towards urbanised ways

of living. This is clearly mirrored in the urbanisation degree of most OECD countries, which

nowadays amounts to approx. 70 percent. The fastest growth in urbanisation however, takes

place in emerging economies and developing countries, so that it is foreseeable that our

planet will turn into an urbanised planet by the middle of this century. Mankind tends to


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become an urban species. Urban agglomerations will then likely act as technological, social,

economic and political powerhouses and will become key actors for sustainable development

of our urban world.

The current urbanisation trend is a global phenomenon. But the structure of

urbanisation shows quite some variation in different regions of the world. For example,

despite the fact that the urbanisation degree in Europe does not show significant differences

from the USA, about 7 percent of the population in Europe lives in cities of over 5 mln, as

opposed to 25 percent in the USA (see Brown 2010). Both continents exhibit an urbanized

settlement pattern, but this pattern is less concentrated in Europe and has more mixed urban-

rural features than the USA. It is fair to say that the USA is showing a trend from

urbanisation to metropolitanisation, in which urban sprawl has an intermediate place. On the

contrary, the urbanized geography of Europe exhibits more a pattern of a mutually connected

urban network in which dense infrastructure (roads, railways, airline connections) plays a

central role.

Despite rural features in isolated areas, most OECD countries may be regarded as

urbanized regions. The transitional areas between rural and urban areas are sometimes called

‘rurban areas’. They are characterized by a great variety of appearances and functions (see

also Bengs and Zonneveld 2002, Bryant and Charvet 2005, Buciega et al. 2009, and Rauws

and de Roo 2011). Usually, they have an orientation towards larger agglomerations, are

relatively small in population size and have often a high ecological quality that is favourable

for leisure activities (see also Hoggart 2005, and McDonagh 2009). These ‘rurban’ areas are

apparently the result of urban growth and related urban agglomeration advantages as main

drivers.

Clearly, modern urban areas are also faced with far-reaching challenges, such as an

unprecedented influx of foreign migrants, an ageing population, urban sprawl, socio-

economic disparities, decline in social cohesion, rise in segregation, mounting volumes of

traffic, environmental degradation, rising resource use, and threatening human health

conditions. The shadow side of current urbanisation embodies high social costs. The dangers

of uncontrolled urbanisation have been clearly recognized in Europe, witness the emergence

of the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) ‘Urban Europe’†, which has made a successful

attempt to mobilize the research forces in Europe in order to cope with the urban challenges

and issues.

† See website: http://jpi-urbaneurope.eu/activities/sria-agenda/

http://jpi-urbaneurope.eu/activities/sria-agenda/


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Urban agglomerations are however, not only a source of decay and disaster, since

they can fortunately also act as a source of progress and new pathways (see e.g. Kourtit

2014a,b; Nijkamp and Kourtit 2013). Urban agglomerations may act as vehicles to turn

threats into promising opportunities, inter alia by exploiting local resources to create

sustainable growth (including a resilient and inclusive local economy), by enhancing the

potential of socio-economic, cultural, ecological and demographic diversity, by combating

spatial exclusion and energy scarcity with better housing, by shaping appropriate conditions

for a green and healthy locality, by seeking to achieve a balanced population development at

the edge of urbanity and rurality, and by creating attractive open public spaces in urban areas

with a ‘colour locale’ (see also EU 2011).

It is noteworthy that in the history of mankind urban areas have always prompted a

complex array of policy and research questions. About half a century ago, a unique gathering

took place of urbanists, nowadays knows as the Delos Symposium (July 1963). They shared a

common concern on the urban future of our world. In their Newsletter issued by Doxiadis

(1963) the following statement on the emerging challenges of our world was made: “when we

place all these extraordinary achievements together, however we can see where we have

failed: by bringing together all the elements of progress into a meaningless and inhuman

system of life.” (item 4, p. 21). The complex urban history and urban policy development

can in the long history of cities all over the world be characterized as a process of

‘challenge and response’ (see Kourtit 2014a,b), which is essentially based on a learning

paradigm for all actors involved in the life course of cities.

Cities all over the world have never been static, but always in a state of flux, by

accommodating themselves to new opportunities and coping with threats and challenges. The

rise of modern cities – leading to metropolitan areas and megacities finds its origin in

economies of density, synergy advantages and open network constellations. All these forces –

positive and negative – have led to a structural dynamics of urban areas. Thus, urban

transformation is a common feature of all cities which survived in the long history of spatial

dynamics in our world. This resilience of cities also means that technological, social and

institutional innovation is a prerequisite for the structural performance of cities. This is

clearly reflected in the current ‘smart city’ initiatives, which seek to combine the benefits of

urban density with the advantages of ecological quality (‘the quality of place’). Modern cities

are essentially ‘multi-tasking’ agents comprising a wide variety of stakeholders with different

interests. Strategic forward thinking and acting is therefore, a necessity for ‘urban survival’

(the ‘Prometheus governance model’) and resilience (see also Vanolo 2014).


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Such ‘smart cities’ should not only create the conditions for enhanced and accelerated

growth (due to ICT, R&D, education, creative sector initiatives etc.), but also offer a solid

contribution to sustainable city development (based on initiatives favouring green cities, eco-

cities, climate-neutral cities, zero-emission cities, liveable cities, resourceful cities etc). The

nature of urban planning will dramatically change in the future and calls for new and

unconventional policy departures, such as the design of agri-cities, urban planning with

nature, development of urban landscape ecology, design of green urban networks, or

integrated development of urban brownfields and greenfields. The challenges for planning

and research in the ‘urban century’ are vast, complex and far-reaching.

The present contribution aims to sketch out the most prominent challenges in the

urban domain. It will do so by presenting the main findings from an exploratory study on

urban megatrends, which provided the cornerstones for the development of a European

research agenda in this field. The new opportunities provided by the current wave of ‘smart

city’ initiatives will next be explored, with particular emphasis on the research and policy

opportunities offered by digital technology and ICT (in particular, ‘Big Data’). The paper

will be concluded with a sketch of governance issues involved.

2. Research Challenges of Urbanisation

The history of mankind over the past millennia is mainly a rural history. Clearly, urban

settlements did exist already a few millennia back, but most of these settlements were

relatively small in size and were not dominating the geography of the world. A few cities

managed to get much political power (Babylon, Nineveh, Rome, e.g.) and were seen as

global power players, even though their population size was not impressive compared to

current standards. Only the last few centuries marked the rise of an urbanized pattern of life, a

process that is even accelerated in emerging and developing countries (Latin-America,

Africa, Asia). If the global future is going to be an urban future, a thorough analysis of trends,

bottlenecks, policy tasks and research needs on cities and city networks is pertinent (see

Taylor 2003). This task has been undertaken by the Scientific Advisory Board of the Joint

Programming Initiative (JPI) ‘Urban Europe’ (see Coutard et al. 2014). In their recent

scoping document they map out various mega-trends, ranging from global to local, with a

view to the identification of policy challenges and research requirements in the urban field.

The JPI findings are presented in a cascade form, starting off from global tendencies and then

moving gradually down to local issues.


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From a global perspective, a series of structural trend developments are distinguished

which seem to be rather robust in the decades to come. These trends all point towards a

decline in rural areas and a rise in urban areas. The following issues are noteworthy:

Globalised economy

The world-wide scale and depth of interconnections and interdependencies have

increased rapidly, with a rise in cross-border trade towards intercontinental linkages,

in which multinational companies play a prominent role. The rise of large

agglomerations and megacities even in the form of city networks has run parallel

to the globalisation trend.

Geopolitics and conflict

The period after WW II has seen the rise of many independent nation states, in

combination with multi-scalar systems of institutions and organizations,

intergovernmental bodies, supra-national bodies and (inter)national NGOs. Much

political power is nowadays concentrated in urban areas and agglomerations, so that

urban agglomerations have become engines of political power.

Demographic change

The rise in population – despite the ageing trend in most OECD countries leads

most likely to a world population of about 10 bln people by the middle of this century.

Most of these people will live in cities, with the consequence that the rise in the

number of cities will grow exponentially, while the large cities will grow into mega-

cities, with more than 10 mln inhabitants.

Social inequalities

Cities have often been economic resorts to escape from poverty. But in recent times,

cities have become places where social inequalities and disparities in the standard of

living have increased. This does not only hold for income or employment, but also for

education and health.

Global environmental change

The population rise, the growth in welfare and in mobility, and the needs of many

people in less privileged countries have meant a formidable threat to sustainable

development (e.g., environmental quality, energy savings). Cities – through their scale

and agglomeration advantages are able to provide efficient technological measures

and behavioural incentives for environmentally-benign and energy-saving strategies.

Urbanisation


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Cities are sources of economic, social, ecological and technological opportunities. In

this way, they may act as self-perpetuating engines attracting even more people. This

prompts the need for effective and balanced policy strategies on urbanisation in the

‘urban century’.

Next, from a European perspective, also a wide variety of concerns and challenges

can be distinguished. Europe is a rather urbanized continent. Even though the population

growth is modest to almost zero, European cities are vulnerable, given their architectural and

cultural heritage. The following challenges can be mentioned:

Economic development

The economies in the European countries have shown a high degree of dynamics in

the past decades, with dramatic shifts in labour markets, technological developments

and R&D orientation. The EU has become an open trade region, an open job market,

and partly an open monetary system (the Eurozone). Cities in Europe have

strengthened their position as leading economic, knowledge and technological hubs.

Governance and government

Europe has not only seen the rise of many independent nation states over the past

decades, but also the emergence of supra-national bodies. Clearly, this was

accompanied by many tensions, especially in the Central and South-Eastern part of

Europe. European cohesion policies have been put in place in order to mitigate the

emergence of strong socio-political tensions in Europe. Governance systems in

Europe are extremely complex, but they have been instrumental in shaping the wider

political landscape and geography of Europe.

Demographic change

Europe has a rather stable – and in some countries, even a declining population. The

relatively high welfare standards in several European countries attracts many

migrants, partly from inside Europe (in particular, Eastern European countries), partly

from Africa and Asia (including the Middle East). As a consequence, cultural

diversity in European cities is rapidly rising. Together with ageing processes, this

leads to an unprecedented population diversity in many cities in Europe.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation


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Maintenance and improvement of urban environmental quality conditions are a sine

qua non for any city. This is also reflected in a great variety of climate strategies and

targets for European cities. This does not only hold for air pollution control or noise,

but also for water management and safety.

Urbanisation

As mentioned before, the density of medium-sized cities in Europe is rather high; they

are often connected through well-developed infrastructure. The urban landscape is

diverse and tends to be stretched out towards rural or semi-urban areas, sometimes

even leading to polycentric urban development. At the same time, there is a tendency

towards smart growth in compact cities. The European urban landscape exhibits

indeed a great diversification.

Transport

Transportation systems in Europe act as the blood circulation of geography. Such

systems need a high degree of accessibility and connectivity so as to offer an

integrating infrastructure for the European space-economy. At the same time leads an

intensification of transport flows (persons, goods) to environmental decay and lack of

safety. Such negative externalities are mainly concentrated in urban agglomerations.

Clearly, cities are action spaces for benefits, but also for threats in a modern network

society.

In the third place, the internal city functioning has to be addressed. Cities are

complex, multi-tasking systems, with a high degree of metabolism and nonlinear dynamic

evolution. The following elements are mentioned as challenging issues:

Spatial dynamics

From an economic, social, demographic and technological perspective, cities are

adaptive systems, with a high degree of evolutionary dynamics. There are many self-

organising forces in urban areas, which may reflect resilience, but also serious decays

due to vulnerability may occur.

Metabolism

Cities are dynamic physical entities that are subjected to the laws of physics

(including entropy). They may be out of equilibrium, as a result of an exogenous

impulse. Consequently, resource management under conditions of city metabolism is

of critical importance for the sustainable development of cities.


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Infrastructures and smart cities

Infrastructure is the spine of a city or of a system of cities. The cities’ social,

economic, technological and political performance is depending on reliable, robust

and efficient infrastructure. In this context, the notion of a ‘smart city’ is relevant, as

this refers to ‘doing things better’ through the use of knowledge and technology.

Clearly, digital technology in smart cities plays a central role in achieving such goals

(see also Section 3).

Social tensions, welfare and inequality

Modern cities are always in a stage of transition. This holds for the economy, for the

population composition, for the labour market and for the housing market. Such

developments induce social tension and social exclusion, and lead eventually to

segregation.

Cultural heritage and tourism

European cities have mostly a long history and consequently, a wealth of

architectural, cultural and political heritage. Any change in a city may have

implications for the urban heritage, so that the free manoeuvre space in European

cities is normally restricted. Balanced urban growth is certainly a great challenge in

Europe.

Urban governance and planning processes

Urban planning is normally a sine qua non for a balanced development of cities.

Planning traditions and practices – especially regarding land use vary widely all

over Europe, ranging from top-down to participatory modes, depending also on the

size and scope of the plan concerned. Governance systems for cities differ, therefore,

significantly as well, although in many cities sustainable development has been

agreed upon as a major overarching policy objective.

On the basis of the cascade of global, European and urban challenges and concerns,

the JPI report argues that the world is becoming more populous, with more economic

dynamism, but also with more ecological threats. Cities play a central role in this

development, as they are the source of higher productivity, efficiency and ecological quality,

but at the same time also the source of socio-political stress and segregation. European cities

have to find a balance between mutually contrasting forces, with a view to a long-range

sustainability. Research in the urban field – from a future perspective needs to be broadly


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conceived in nature, but also to find meaningful anchor points in basic knowledge on cities

and their evolution. This also calls for rich empirical datasets, bridges to applied useful

methodologies, planning solutions and effective policy instruments. There is indeed a need to

proactively address the great many challenges and threats faced by cities. In its concluding

framework section for ‘Urban Europe’ research, the JPI report (see Coutard et al. 2014)

claims: “What is clear is that an approach is required that possesses a number of qualities that

enables a holistic yet nuanced understanding to be developed and contextual and relational

responses to be delivered. Neither a silo approach to each issue or case, nor a one size fits all

theory or policy, will produce the interdisciplinary, integrative, pluralistic, nuanced and

contextual knowledge needed to understand and manage contemporary urbanism and

urbanisation. And given the pressing nature of the challenges and problems facing cities, it is

not enough to simply produce new knowledge through research; rather such fundamental

knowledge needs to be translated into utilisable techniques and technologies and instrumental

policy and action”.

3. The Nature of ‘Smart Cities’

Urban agglomerations are no passive spatial entities. They contribute actively to the

well-being of the local population, but also to all those who are directly or indirectly

connected with the city concerned. The spatial footprint – or action radius of a city may

range from the direct hinterland to the planet as a whole. Governing such socio-economic and

technological potential calls for an urban intelligence that is able to cope with the wide

variety of challenges sketched out in Section 2. This mission leads to the popularity of the

current ‘smart city’ movement, as cities are forced to be competitive amongst each other,

with the goal to offer the highest quality of urban life, the best possible opportunities for

business life, and the most favourable ecological conditions (the so-called XXQ principle; see

Nijkamp 2008). There is a wide diversity of definitions of a ‘smart city’, but in most

definitions a ‘smart city’ is regarded as an urban agglomeration that seeks to accomplish a

better socio-economic, technological and ecological performance of a city through the use of

ICT, in particular the use of digital technology (in other words, a kind of e-city; see

Townsend 2013). This calls for an appropriate and integrated combination of human capital,

social capital, creative capital and infrastructure capital. These are the seedbed conditions for

innovativeness, entrepreneurship and economic growth. Smart city policy is essentially based

on intelligent resource management through information technology, with a view to ‘doing

things better’.


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The ‘smart city’ movement has over the past years witnessed a booming development,

often as a combination of public and private initiatives. There is a wealth of opportunities and

applications for ‘smart city’ actions at the level of cities or regions. A recent report by

Steenbruggen et al. (2015) offers a nice set of illustrative applications of ‘smart city’

application fields:

Logistic distribution of goods in cities

Establishment of smart urban energy grids

Monitoring of urban quality-of-life indicators

Intelligent 3-D planning of urban space

Pro-active management of water flows in cities

Design of driverless cars (pilots)

Innovative urban parking management

Creative forms of cyber safety in urban areas

Online retail initiatives (including distribution)

New forms of car sharing initiatives

Sensor systems for optimal matching between energy demand and renewable energy

supply

Electronic traffic incidence management

Integrated transport flows management in urban areas

Interactive living lab learning applications

Optimal coordination between private and public transport

Novel contributions to urban e-democracy

Tailor-made supply of care systems for elderly

E-safety in popular entertainment centres etc.

Clearly, to accomplish a fully integrated ‘smart city’ is not an easy task. An

illustration of a systematic scheme on the various stages of such an urban intelligence can be

found in Figure 1.

It should be added that a necessary element of a ‘smart city’ policy is the design and

operational use of the ‘Internet of Things’, and more in particular of ‘Big Data’ (see Kitchin

2014; Robinson 2011). Big Data are ‘mountains of data’ acquired through the medium of

digital technologies (sensors, camera’s, GSM, GPS, social media etc.), often on-line available

which offer a micro-based picture of objects and movements of objects. Such data are usually


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characterized by 3-V: volume, velocity, variety (and sometimes veracity). Such large-scale

information flows with open access can be used for data exploration and description,

descriptive statistical analysis, predictive causal modelling, and retrieval by substance or

content. In recent years, big geo-data have become rather popular management tools for

space-time problems in urban areas (e.g., traffic management). Such spatial data-analytics

operate often at the interface of virtual and real worlds.

It seems plausible that ‘smart city’ initiatives in combination with e-services provided

by the ‘Internet of Things’ will show a booming growth in the years to come. This will be

facilitated by new advances in ‘Big Data’ management and analysis, as is witnessed by the

recent progress in the field of data mining techniques.

Figure 1. Components of a strategic ‘smart city’ plan

Source: EU (2013), European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities

Strategic Implementation Plan


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4. In Search of the ‘City Captain’

Cities have turned into excessively complex spatial entities. In the previous sections

various challenges and threats to this vulnerable human ecosystem have been indicated, in

particular, the stimulation of economic vitality, the mitigation of social exclusion and

fragmentation, the maximization of ecological quality and sustainability (including energy

use), the management of a balanced mobility of the urban population on the basis of

accessibility and connectivity, and the protection of architectural and historical cultural

heritage in the city. All these policy concerns have to be placed in the context of

contemporaneous urban dynamics, with its different spatial land-use manifestations, such as

urban expansion, suburbanisation, urban sprawl, edge city developments, and trends towards

poly-nuclear urban systems. But who is the responsible captain for such a dynamic evolution

of cities?

The European urban system has a particular precious feature, namely a wealth of

heritage assets. They form a diversified collection of architectural and artistic goods that

attract millions of tourists from all over the world. By exploiting the benefits offered by the

past heritage, local vitalization and socio-economic resurrection of agglomerations is

favoured. Thus, culture-led regeneration of cities is an additional challenge and a new

opportunity for many cities in Europe. Such a policy does not only refer to tangible assets

(e.g., museums, churches, castles, festivals, arts exhibitions and the like), but also to cultural

events or sports manifestations. Consequently, city branding is increasingly becoming a

major policy instrument for boosting the attractiveness of a city through the creation of an

appropriate city image. Such a strategy is also in agreement with current initiatives to favour

creative classes in creative urban districts (see Kourtit et al. 2014). Next to local cultural

policy stimuli, there are also European actions favouring urban culture as a prominent

cornerstone for urban Europe, such as: the European Heritage Days, the European Heritage

Label, and the establishment of the European Capital of Culture programme.

It is obvious that historical culture is by far not the only concern of urban policy-

makers and planners. The EU report on ‘Cities of Tomorrow’ (2011) offers a whole range of

foreseeable future developments of cities, of hurdles and threats to a balanced urban

evolution, of new chances to turn problems and bottlenecks into opportunities, and of new

forms of governance to respond to these urban challenges. These items will concisely be

presented here.

Cities are critical for a sustainable EU development


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The strategic future role of cities in Europe originates from the following observed

trends: Europe is highly urbanised; cities are logistic, innovative and socio-economic

engines of the EU; urban dynamics exceeds the city borders and calls for new forms

of flexible governance of cities; cities are fireplaces for education, health, social

cohesion, culture, ecological regeneration, and democracy; urban agglomerations are

the anchor points for a balanced territorial development of Europe.

The current urban development in Europe does not contribute to sustainable

development

Various threats can be distinguished: demographic change causing ageing in cities

and shrinkage of cities; disruption of economic growth perspectives, in particular in

older industrial cities; high unemployment levels (especially among the youth) in

many cities; rise in socio-economic disparities in European cities; an increase in social

polarisation and segregation causing more marginalised groups; an increase in social

tensions and hostile attitudes in various urban districts; increasing negative spatial

externalities due to urban sprawl and uncontrolled land use in urban areas; threatening

development of urban ecosystems, biodiversity and water resources.

Europe has many opportunities to turn threats into positive challenges

Urban development in Europe has also many possibilities for a sunny perspective, in

particular: global competitiveness of cities can be combined with sustainable local

economies; European cities have the potential to create a resilient and inclusive

economy; socio-economic, cultural, generational and ethnic diversity may be used as

a source of innovation; eco-friendly initiatives may be combined with better housing

conditions; cities in Europe offer a great potential for a holistic approach to

environmental and energy issues; medium-sized cities in Europe may be instrumental

in avoiding rural depopulation; sustainable cities in Europe may offer favourable

public transport so as to reduce car mobility and to create attractive open public

spaces.

Europe needs adaptive governance systems to cope with the new urban challenges

The policy challenges for European cities are vast and call for new forms of

governing complex urban development in the ‘urban century’. The following

signposts can be mentioned: cities of tomorrow need a holistic model of sustainable

urban development matching place-based and people-based approaches; urban polices

need to be flexible and to take into account various territorial and temporal scales;


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urban development needs a multi-faceted (‘across sectors’) approach; urban

governance systems have to be based on horizontal and vertical coordination

mechanisms at different territorial scales; participatory governance modes including

all relevant stakeholders are to be put in place; social innovation in urban

agglomerations should favour civic engagement, creativity, and cohesion; cities in

Europe need professional foresight systems to anticipate conflicts, to mitigate

contradictions and to better understand urban complexities.

The above perspectives on cities of the future highlight that a careful governance of

urban systems is needed. The complexity of modern cities makes them vulnerable; managing

such fragile human ecosystems concentrated in a small territory poses many questions on the

geographic span of control of urban governance, on the competences of various stakeholders

involved, on the time frame of urban policies, and on the long-run information needs for

balanced urban planning. ‘Big Data’ handling and organisation is a sine qua non for

sustainable city governance in the future. From this perspective, the current ‘smart city’

movement is promising, provided it is supported by smart forward-looking urban research.

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