Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties to Reflect the New Realities of Today’s Middle East

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Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties toReflect the New Realities of

Today’s Middle EastBy Brian Katulis, Rudy deLeon, Peter Juul, Mokhtar Awad, and John Craig April 2016


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Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties toReflect the New Realities ofToday’s Middle East

By Brian Katulis, Rudy deLeon, Peter Juul, Mokhtar Awad, and John Craig

April 2016


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1 Introduction and summary

4 Saudi social contract changes amid economic

and security pressures

9 Saudi Arabia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy

11 Laying a new foundation for U.S.-Saudi relations

in the 21st century

13 Recommendations for U.S.-Saudi relations

16 Conclusion

17 About the authors

20 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties to Reflect the New Realities of Today’s Middle East

Introduction and summary

When Presiden Barack Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia las week o paricipae

in he U.S. summi wih he Gul Cooperaion Council, or GCC, he landed

in he mids o regional urbulence and major economic and oreign policy

changes by he Kingdom.1

oday, he Middle Eas remains caugh up in a period o ragmenaion and com-

peiion or influence among he leading powers in he region.2 In he afermah

o las year’s nuclear deal beween Iran and oher global powers, Presiden Obamahas ye o achieve he new equilibrium in he Middle Eas ha he envisioned.3 His

recen suggesion ha GCC counries “share” he region wih Iran received a cool

recepion in Saudi Arabia and oher pars o he GCC.4 Saudi Arabiaalong wih

oher GCC counriesremains deeply concerned abou Iran’s subversive acivi-

ies in he region, including is suppor or erroris groups and ongoing conven-

ional miliary effors, such as is ballisic missile program.5

Tis curren period o insecuriy ollowing he Iran nuclear deal is he laes epi-

sode in a U.S.-Saudi relaionship roiled by ension or more han a decade. Since

2000, he decades-long oundaion o close relaions beween he Unied Saes

and Saudi Arabianamely, regional sabiliy, energy securiy, and miliary coop-

eraionhas come under considerable sress. Te 9/11 erroris atacks in 2001

and he 2003 Iraq war ushered in a rocky phase in bilaeral U.S.-Saudi relaions.

Tese wo incidensalong wih he end o he U.S. policy o dual conainmen

o Iran and Iraqled o a decline in muual rus beween he Unied Saes and

Saudi Arabia ha’s now reaching criical mass.

Te srains in he relaionship were on display during Presiden Obama’s recen rip

o Riyadh. His meeing wih King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud served o highlighhe differences beween American and Saudi ways o achieving saed, shared secu-

riy goals. According o a senior adminisraion official, he Saudi king emphasized

he use o orce o deal wih hreas, while Presiden Obama emphasized he need


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o include diplomacy as well.6 Alhough he wider U.S.-Gul Cooperaion Council

summi produced a consrucive acion agendaincluding plans or a high-level

economic reorm dialogue laer his year and join miliary exercises in 2017bila-

eral ension beween he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia remains.7

Poliical leaders and ciizens in boh counries now openly quesion he valueproposiion o he curren bilaeral relaionship.8 For many Americans, he

ulraconservaive values enorced domesically and promoed worldwide by he

Saudi governmen sand a odds wih he progressive American values o plural-

ism, equaliy, and reedom.9 As a resul, many Americans quesion Saudi Arabia’s

reliabiliy as an ally in he figh agains Islamis exremism and seek answers o

unanswered quesions abou he relaionship beween he 9/11 hijackers and he

Saudi governmen.10 For heir par, many Saudis view he Unied Saes as aking

acionssuch as he 2003 invasion o Iraq and he 2015 Iran nuclear dealha

bolsered Iran’s regional posiion a Saudi Arabia’s expense.11

Despie hese growing differences, however, he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia

coninue o share imporan securiy ineress. Indeed, in recen years, boh

counries have orged closer securiy cooperaion on several key rons, including

cerain aspecs o he figh agains erroris groups such as Al Qaeda in he Arabian

Peninsula, or AQAP. In ligh o his cooperaion, he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia

should work o build a new oundaion or bilaeral relaionsone ocused on he

shared ineress o he presen, no he pas. Above all, bilaeral relaions should be

hones and ransparen: Te basic differences in values beween he Unied Saes

and Saudi Arabia canno and should no be ignored, and shared ineress should

be publicly debaed and explained in boh counries. As Saudi Arabia embarks on a

period o significan economic and oreign policy change, he Unied Saes should

use all he incenives a is disposal o press or change in a progressive direcion.

Based on he Cener or American Progress’ research and recen visi o Saudi

Arabiawhich included inerviews wih several Saudi leaders, securiy officials,

and inellecualsPresiden Obama and his successor should commi o he ol-

lowing acions:

• Recognize the opportunities provided by the new Saudi leadership’s economicreform program, Saudi Vision 2030. Following he accession o King Salman

o power in early 2015, Saudi leaders laid plans or economic and governance

reorms ha could undamenally aler he counry’s social conrac and move


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is economy away rom dependence on oil revenues. In addiion, hese reorms

could creae opporuniies or progressive change in Saudi sociey as he coun-

ry’s economy diversifies. Te Unied Saes should encourage hese reorms and

look or ways o assis Saudi Arabia in heir execuion.

•Create incentives for a constructive Saudi foreign policy. Saudi Arabia’snewly asserive oreign policy will likely persis or he oreseeable uure. Te

Kingdom’s leadership perceives hreas rom Iran, AQAP, and he Islamic Sae.12

Alhough Saudi leaders say hey wan o reinorce and srenghen he region’s

sae srucures, hey have litle experience wih such aciviies and heir acions

have ye o produce angible gains oward hose saed goals. Te Obama admin-

israion and is successor should provide incenives o Saudi leaders o ensure

ha heir oreign policy acions beter serve heir saed ends. A he op o ha

lis are conaining Iranian misbehavior and counering erroris groups such as

he Islamic Sae and AQAP.

• Be honest about core values but do not make cooperation on shared interests

dependent on revolutionary changes in Saudi society. Any new oundaion

or U.S.-Saudi relaions should acknowledge he proound differences beween

he wo counries when i comes o basic values. Alhough hese differences

should no preclude cooperaion on shared ineress, American leaders will find

i difficul o susain cooperaion wih Saudi Arabia i hey are no hones wih

he American people abou he undamenal values and differences beween

American and Saudi socieies. A he same ime, Americans should acknowl-

edge ha i here are revoluionary changes in Saudi sociey, hose changes

are unlikely o be progressive. Insead, American leaders should seek pracical

opporuniies o suppor gradual, meaningul, and progressive change in Saudi

Arabia ha also advances American values and ineress.

Te nex presiden o he Unied Saes should sar a new bilaeral sraegic

dialogue wih Saudi Arabia. Te goal o his dialogue should be he esablishmen

o join goals on he counries’ shared ineress, including regional securiy and

domesic Saudi economic and governance reorms. Te high-level GCC economic

reorm dialogue planned or laer his year should be jus he firs sep in a long-

erm effor o expand he poins o conac beween he wo socieies in a broadersraegic dialogue. Tis dialogue also should seek o expand people-o-people

links, such as privae secor business and academic exchanges. A he same ime,

boh he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia should honesly acknowledge heir seri-

ous and deep differences when i comes o heir values.


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Saudi social contract changes amid

economic and security pressures

The post-Abdul lah transition

Currenly, Saudi Arabia is in he early sages o a careully managed genera-

ional change in leadership. Afer he deah o nonagenarian King Abdullah bin

Abdulaziz al-Saud in January 2015, ocogenarian King Salman ascended o he

hrone. Once in power, Salman ook seps o empower a new group o leaders

many coming rom a much younger generaionwhich has begun o char a

course o economic and governance reorms ha could aler he Saudi social con-rac subsanially. A he same ime, he Saudi governmen has aken a number

o seps o crack down on criics o he ruling auhoriies in an apparen effor o

reasser he legiimacy o he monarchy.

Te opaque naure o poliics in he Kingdom makes difficul any ouside assess-

men o how power is setling under he new king, bu he conours o he ransi-

ion are clear: King Salman has ocused on empowering a new generaion o leaders

cenered around his son, Depuy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Abdulaziz

al-Saud.13 Te deense miniser and chair o he Council o Economic and

Developmen Affairshe governmen’s main economic policymaking group

he depuy crown prince is seen as he driving orce behind he proposed reorm

program. Te curren heir o he hrone, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naye bin

Abdulaziz al-Saud, remains ocused on inernal securiy and counererrorism as

he inerior miniser and chair o he Council o Poliical and Securiy Affairs.

While here have been rumors o inrigue regarding he succession, he ransiion

o power appears o have moved smoohly hus ar, wih he Saudi royal amily

appearing o mainain he balance o ension ha is necessary o saisy he differ-

en acions wihin he ruling amily and he key ribes and ceners o power in heKingdom. Power and policy planning have cenralized, which creaes a poenial

challenge as he new leadership moves orward wih is proposed reorm program.


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Successul implemenaion o his program likely will require a more decenral-

ized mode o governance ha pushes auhoriy down o a wider range o officials

operaing ouside he palace in Riyadh. On he whole, however, Saudi Arabia has

so ar weahered he ransiion wih minimal urbulence.

The reform program: Opportunities and challenges

Te new Saudi leadership embarks on a program o economic reorm a a ime

o considerable economic sress. Global oil prices have allen sharply rom a high

o $112 per barrel in June 2014 o jus more han $38 per barrel by lae March

2016.14 Moreover, Saudi oreign currency reserves declined by $115 billion las

year, leaving Riyadh wih $608 billion a he sar o 2016.15 Subsidies are a major

source o governmen spending, wih he Inernaional Moneary Fund esimaing

ha Saudi Arabia spends some $107 billion per year on energy subsidies alone.16

As one Saudi official pu i, “We are hosages o he price o oil, and our paseffors o diversiy he Saudi economy have only parially succeeded.”17

Saudi Arabia’s economic reorm plans are ar more ambiious han and quie di-

eren rom he $130 billion simulus package pushed by King Abdullah afer he

sar o he Arab uprisings in 2011.18 Ta package ocused on disribuing sae

unds o respond o some immediae challenges. By conras, he reorms cur-

renly being considered aim o reduce subsidies across he board, and he coun-

ry’s 2016 budge includes increases in he prices o uel, elecriciy, and waer, as

well as a 5 percen value-added ax. Te goal o his budge is o cu he govern-

men’s budge defici over he nex five years.19 In addiion, he Saudi leadership

hopes o privaize large secors o he economyincluding parial privaizaion o

Saudi Aramco, he naional peroleum and naural gas company and he source o

90 percen o he Kingdom’s revenue.20 Finally, he Saudi governmen plans o use

he proceeds rom he parial privaizaion o Saudi Aramco o sar a new sover-

eign wealh und ha poenially could be worh $2 rillion.21 As one Saudi official

pu i, “Te old way o doing business is over.”22

I ully implemened, hese reorms would aler he basic erms o he Saudi social

conrac and could lead o wider progressive social change in he Kingdom. “W hais missing rom he curren Saudi economy,” one Saudi official said, “is he idea o

wha Saudis can do or heir counry and heir economy.”23 Te parial privaiza-

ion o Saudi Aramco, or insance, would require an unprecedened level o rans-


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parency or he Kingdom and more predicable business laws and regulaions.24

A more open and compeiive Saudi economy could make i difficul o susain

gender-based resricions ha currenly preven Saudi women rom seeking work

and mainaining employmen.25

Alhough i is ar rom guaraneed ha economic reorm will lead o poliical andsocial change, suppor or he new Saudi leadership’s economic reorm program

should be a op prioriy or he nex adminisraionespecially in he conex

o a new bilaeral sraegic dialogue wih Riyadh. American policymakers should

encourage heir Saudi counerpars o couple heir economic reorms wih

progressive poliical and social change by reminding hem ha social progress in

Saudi Arabia will make he Kingdom more atracive o American businesses and

more conducive o susainable economic growh.

A closed political system without basic freedoms

While he new Saudi leadership moves orward wih dramaic economic

reorms, i has given no indicaion ha i inends o reorm he Saudi polii-

cal sysem or acknowledge he basic righs and reedoms o is people. As he

U.S. Deparmen o Sae pu i in is mos recen “Counry Repors on Human

Righs Pracices” or Saudi Arabia:

Te most important human rights problems reported [in Saudi Arabia]

included citizens’ lack o the ability and legal means to choose their government;

restrictions on universal rights, such as feedom o expression, including on the

internet, and the feedoms o assembly, association, movement, and religion; and

pervasive gender discrimination and lack o equal rights that affected all aspects

o women’s lives.26

Wih his record, Saudi Arabia consisenly finds isel a he botom o inerna-

ional rankings o democracy, poliical reedom, and human righs.27 Indeed, some

o he world’s harshes resricions on reedom o expression and open public

debae remain in place in Saudi Arabiawih blasphemy and aposasy punish-

able by deah.28

Simple advocacy o progressive values can land a Saudi ciizen adecade-long prison senence.29 Te religious moraliy police coninue o monior

public behaviorhough he Saudi governmen has aken recen seps o resric

he moraliy police’s auhoriies.30


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Given his realiy, Saudi criics o he ruling auhoriy are unable o organize a

coheren poliical alernaive o he ruling monarchy. Wihou reedom o expres-

sion and open public debae, i is difficul o make argumens and garner suppor

or one’s viewsand i is nex o impossible when he punishmen or doing so is

as exreme as i is in Saudi Arabia. Saudis are unable o organize or express hem-

selves in his closed and ighly conrolled sysem and have, by and large, exhibieda low level o ineres in poliics.

Sill, American officials a all levels should coninue o urge he Saudi governmen

o show greaer respec or human righs and reedomsparicularly in specific

cases, such as ha o Rai Badawi, where he core American value o reedom o

expression is a sake.31 In cases such as his, he Unied Saes can and should bring

rank, persisen, and quie diplomaic pressure o bear on Saudi officials a he

highes levels. American policymakers should remind heir Saudi counerpars ha

avorable resoluion o such cases will make i easier o pursue shared ineress.

Threats to internal stabil ity

Tose shared ineress include counering he wo main hreas o Saudi Arabia’s

inernal securiy: Al Qaeda in he Arabian Peninsula and he Islamic Sae. Boh

groups pose direc hreas o Saudi Arabia and he Unied Saes, as well as o

America’s allies in Europe and parners elsewhere in he Middle Eas. Boh AQAP

and he Islamic Sae have proven willing and able o murder innocen people in

he Unied Saes, Saudi Arabia, and around he world.

In paricular, he hrea posed o he Kingdom by he Islamic Sae has grown over

he pas wo years. Since November 2014, he group has declared hree provinces

inside Saudi Arabia and launched a leas a dozen atacks in he counry.32 Saudi

securiy officials acknowledge ha hey ace remendous challenges in deec-

ing and prevening atacks rom Islamic Sae sympahizers wihin he Kingdom,

despie arresing more han 1,000 suspecs. Since he Islamic Sae dispues he

monarchy’s religious legiimacy, some Saudi officials believe ha i seeks o seize

conrol o he Islamic holy ciy o Mecca.33

While Saudi counererrorism cooperaion remains imperec, i has improved

markedly since 9/11 and is vial in fighing erroris groups such as AQAP and he

Islamic Sae.34 Tis cooperaion has gone largely unnoiced and unacknowledged

in he Unied Saesin par due o a lack o clariy over Saudi Arabia’s role in


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he 9/11 atacks and in par due o Saudi Arabia’s role promoing ulraconserva-

ive inerpreaions o Islam around he world. More ransparency and honesy

is clearly needed on boh aces o he relaionship. Bu in he final analysis, boh

American and Saudi securiy would suffer i counererrorism cooperaion came

o an abrup hal.


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Saudi Arabia’s increasingly

assertive foreign policy

In he decade beore he 2011 Arab uprisings, Saudi Arabia ell shor on many o

is leading oreign policy goals. For example, Riyadh ailed o hal he spread o

Iranian influence across he Middle Eas in he wake o he 2003 Iraq war. In addi-

ion, Saudi Arabia’s atemp o move Arab-Israeli peace orwardwih he 2002

Arab Peace Iniiaive, or exampleailed o gain racion.35

In he wake o he evens o 2011, Saudi Arabia’s regional sraegy has aken a

more asseriveand unpredicableurn. Firs and oremos, Saudi leadersremain concerned abou Iran. “Te Iranian fingerprin is on every single cookie

jar,” one senior Saudi securiy official said. “Te Iranians expor problems and

promoe secarianism and exremism.”36

Te Islamic Sae, Al Qaeda in he Arabian Peninsula, and oher Islamis erroris

groups ha hreaen he inegriy o he Middle Eas’s sae sysem are nex on he

lis o Saudi Arabia’s worries. op Saudi officials consisenly sae ha heir goal

is o reinorce his sysem.37 As one leading Saudi official pu i, “Our goal is o

sabilize unsable counries.”38

However, i is difficul o ideni y one consisen, overarching approach governing

Saudi Arabia’s pos-2011 regional policy. Riyadh has insead ailored is acions

and responses o he specific siuaions i aces in paricular counries around

he region. On one hand, Saudi Arabia suppored movemens and armed groups

inen on overhrowing rulers in Yemen and Syria. On he oher hand, Riyadh

criicized he overhrow o ormer Presiden Hosni Mubarak in Egyp in 2011

and hen backed Presiden Abdel Fatah el-Sisi’s seizure o power in 2013.39 More

recenly, Riyadh launched a miliary campaign o resore he governmen o

Presiden Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen while wihdrawing billions o dol-lars in securiy assisance o Lebanon’s miliary.40

Given his apparen lack o a coheren sraegy, i remains unclear wheher Saudi

Arabia’s more acivis regional policy will achieve Riyadh’s saed objecive o

a sable regional sae sysem. Counries such as Yemenwhere Saudi Arabia

has engaged in direc miliary acionremain unsable, while ohers such as


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Egypwhere i has given considerable financial helpsill ace consider-

able domesic challenges. Even in he ace o inconclusive acivism abroad and

economic challenges a home, however, Riyadh does no appear willing o rerea

rom is more asserive regional posure in he years o come.

As wih counererrorism, American and Saudi ineress converge when i comeso counering malign Iranian influence and prevening erroris groupssuch

as he Islamic Saerom undermining he inegriy o he Middle Eas’s sae

sysem. U.S. and Saudi leaders should candidly and regularly discuss wheher he

policies hey are pursuing are achieving heir saed aims. In he securiy area,

he Unied Saes has an advanage over all oher global powers which wih Saudi

Arabia engages, including China, Russia, and leading European counries. Te

Unied Saes should use is exising securiy and inelligence cooperaion rela-

ionships wih Saudi Arabia o ormulae a more proacive and comprehensive

approach o regional securiy and sae sabiliy ha does no rely so heavily on

miliary acion and inernal coercion.


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Laying a new foundation for

U.S.-Saudi relations in the

21st century

For all he alk abou an American rerea rom he Middle Easand Saudi

officials’ hins abou building sraegic ies wih counries such as Russia and

ChinaSaudi leaders recognize ha here are no alernaives o parnership wih

he Unied Saes. Despie recen ensions, he miliary, counererrorism, and

inelligence relaionships beween he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabiaas well as

beween he Unied Saes and oher counries across he Middle Easremaindeep and srong. As one leading Saudi figure said, “China canno help us when i

comes o securiy crises.”41

Bu neiher he George W. Bush adminisraion nor he Obama adminisraion has

engaged effecively wih Saudi Arabia in order o shape Riyadh’s domesic reorm

agenda or is regional engagemen abroad. A range o Saudi leaders have raised

quesions abou America’s leadership role in he regionand expressed a desire or

he Unied Saes o offer a clearer regional sraegy. As one Saudi leader noed, “Te

Unied Saes is he leader o he world, and he new global order remains linked o

he Unied Saes. … Anyhing ha harms global order represens a hrea o every-

one in he world. Ta’s why we are upse ha here hasn’ been U.S. leadership.” 42

In ac, many o hese calls or greaer U.S. “leadership” represen policy disagree-

mens wih he Obama adminisraionsuch as he Iran nuclear agreemen

or a perceived lack o suppor or Saudi Arabia’s miliary campaign in Yemen.

Noneheless, some o hese calls or greaer U.S. engagemen indicae a perceived

lack o clariy abou U.S. goals in and is commimen o he region.

Te sraegic relaionship beween he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia cannores on he shaky and oudaed oundaion ha currenly exiss. A new ounda-

ion should be laid, bu i also should be one ha reflecs he common ineress

o he presen raher han hose o he pas. Addiionally, his new oundaion

canno disregard he undamenal differences in values beween he wo coun-

ries. However, i should recognize ha hones and srong disagreemen does

no and should no preven collaboraion on common ineress.


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Indeed, even wih all he urbulence buffeing he Middle Eas, he ime is righ

or his new oundaion o be buil. Saudi Arabia has jus experienced a leadership

ransiion, and is new leaders appear se on charing a new course when i comes o

Saudi Arabia’s economy. A he same ime, Saudi Arabia is pursuing a more asserive

oreign policy in he region. aken ogeher, hese evens provide boh Washingon

and Riyadh a promising opporuniy o se a new oundaion or bilaeral iesoneha may no come again. Te Obama adminisraion can begin o esablish he

groundwork, bu i will be up o he nex adminisraion o finish he job.


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Recommendations for

U.S.-Saudi relations

Te Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia can ake a number o pracical seps o creae a

new oundaion or heir sraegic relaionship:

• Setting a long-term economic cooperation strategy. Wih he new Saudi lead-

ership’s emphasis on reorm, economic policy offers he bes opporuniy or

consrucive cooperaion beween he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia. Te nex

generaion o Saudi leaders appear o recognize ha heir counry’s dependence

on oil revenue canno las orever, as do many o heir counerpars in he Gul. A he same ime, he Unied Saes has emerged rom he 2008 financial crash

as he world’s leading economic power. Economic changes, hen, poenially

could creae space or progressive reorm in Saudi Arabiaalbei gradually over

ime. While acknowledging he limis o American influence in Saudi Arabia’s

domesic affairs, American policymakers should remain ready o ake advan-

age o any opporuniies ha economic reorm creaes in order o encourage

progressive poliical and social change in Saudi Arabia. Te high-level GCC

economic reorm dialogue planned or laer his year on his issue is a good

firs sep. Economic cooperaion should be a he op o he agenda or a new

bilaeral sraegic dialogue beween he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia, and he

Unied Saes should be prepared o offer whaever assisance i can o ensure

ha economic reorm proceeds smoohly.

In paricular, U.S. assisance o Saudi Arabia should ocus on increasing Saudi

women’s paricipaion in heir counry’s economy. According o he World

Economic Forum’s 2015 “Global Gender Gap” repor, Saudi women ace some

o he larges obsacles o economic paricipaion and opporuniy in he world.43

American officials should coninuously remind heir Saudi counerpars ha heir

economic reorms will be more susainableand heir counry more atraciveo American invesmeni Saudi Arabia is on a clear pah o social and poliical

progress. While American policymakers should remain cauious abou jus how

ar economic opporuniy can drive social change in Saudi Arabia, he Saudi gov-

ernmen’s reorm program offers a rare chance o use limied American influence

and help increase economic opporuniies or Saudi women.


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• Overhauling security cooperation to meet contemporary security challenges

and strategic objectives. Te Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia already have a

robus oundaion or miliary and inelligence cooperaionparicularly on

counererrorism. However, his cooperaion has remained ocused primarily on

immediae hreas raher han working o achieve long-erm, proacive sraegic

aims. Securiy cooperaion coninues o ocus on he sale o sophisicaed weap-ons sysems rom he Unied Saes o Saudi Arabia: More han $20.8 billion

in arms sales have been announced since 2014 alone.44 Bu convenional arms

ransers will no alleviae Saudi Arabia’s concerns abou Iranian subversion, nor

will hey address he Unied Saes’ and Saudi Arabia’s muual concerns abou

he srengh o he Middle Eas’s sae sysem. Going orward, securiy coopera-

ion canno remain ounded on some combinaion o arms sales and counerer-

rorism cooperaion agains seleced groups.

In he immediae erm, he Unied Saes should sop viewing is maerial

securiy assisance o Saudi Arabiarom expensive weapons sysems o joinplanning cellssolely or even primarily in erms o reassurance agains Iran.

Raher, his assisance should be seen as a way o begin a bilaeral conversaion

abou how he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia can work ogeher o achieve

heir commonly declared goals. Alhough Saudi officials say hey wan o shore

up a ragile regional sae sysem, he conduc o heir miliary campaign in

Yemen raises concerns.45 Te Unied Saes should use is unrivaled posiion

as Saudi Arabia’s securiy parner o choice as leverage o ensure ha Riyadh’s

campaign in Yemen boh complies wih relevan inernaional sandards and

does no produce he very insabiliy ha Saudi officials say hey wan o avoid.

Congressional effors o increase oversigh o arms sales o Saudi Arabia could

prove useul in hese conversaions, and adminisraion officials should ake

advanage o he leverage hey provide.46

Over he long erm, he Unied Saes should use his leverage o press Saudi

Arabia o define wha i means by “sabilizing unsable counries” wih a greaer

degree o clariy.47 From he war in Yemen o he wihdrawal o billions o dol-

lars in securiy assisance o he Lebanese miliary, recen behavior suggess ha

Saudi officials may be less concerned wih sae sabiliy han wih he perceived

advance o Iranian influence. Once Riyadh’s prioriies become clear, he UniedSaes and Saudi Arabia can engage in a meaningul dialogue abou how bes o

achieve saed common goals o shoring up crumbling regional saes and con-

aining Iran. For he Unied Saes, however, he ulimae objecive remains he

creaion o a sel-susaining and cooperaive regional securiy sysemsome-

hing ha is only achievable wih Saudi Arabia’s buy-in.


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• Acknowledging honestly that U.S.-Saudi relations are based on shared inter-

ests, not shared values. Te Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia can lay a new

oundaion or heir long-sanding sraegic relaionship due o a srong presen-

day convergence o ineress. Bu leaders and policymakers in neiher counry

should misake hese shared ineress or shared values or worldviewswhich

have grown urher and urher apar. Indeed, U.S. eleced officials and policy-makers should recognize ha hey will no be able o susain a close relaion-

ship wih Saudi Arabia unless hey are hones wih he American people abou

he proound differences in values beween he wo counries. While he nex

adminisraion should ake care no o blindside he Saudi governmen, i can

and should esablish clear expecaions ha he Unied Saes will publicly voice

candid bu civil criicisms o Riyadh’s poor human righs record and promoion

o ulraconservaive values around he world.

On a pracical level, he Unied Saes should make a prioriy o avorably resolv-

ing cases involving paricularly imporan values such as reedom o expression.Te Unied Saes should be able o operae on wo racks: principled, public

opposiion o Saudi Arabia’s general human righs record and promoion o

ulraconservaive values, and quie, persisen diplomacy o achieve avorable

resuls in specific cases relaing o core values.


19/25


Conclusion

Saudi Arabia was he firs counry in he Middle Eas ha Barack Obama visied

as presiden, and i may be he las counry in he region he visis beore leaving

office. His firs visi ook place amid hope or progress on Arab-Israeli peace and

change in he regiona sharp conras wih he bloodshed and uncerainy acing

he region oday. In his final monhs in office, Presiden Obama has he oppor-

uniy o begin laying a new oundaion or America’s ongoing relaionship wih

Saudi Arabia and he broader Gul region.

I is imperaive ha relaionship building beween boh counries coninues

wih he nex U.S. adminisraion. As Saudi Arabia begins imporan economic

reorms domesically, i remains asserive and acive across he Middle Eas.

While he Unied Saes and Saudi Arabia have deep and ar-reaching differences

when i comes o values, he Unied Saes reains a srong ineres in a consruc-

ive Saudi role in he region and supporing economic reorms ha offer hope or

progressive poliical and social change. Te new oundaion o U.S.-Saudi rela-

ions should acknowledge hese differences honesly bu recognize, ulimaely,

ha boh counries have common ineress across he Middle Eas and mus

work ogeher o secure hem.


20/25


About the authors

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow a American Progress, where his work ocuses on

U.S. naional securiy sraegy and counererrorism policy. For more han a decade,

he has advised senior U.S. policymakers on oreign policy and has provided exper

esimony several imes o key congressional commitees, including he U.S. SenaeCommitee on Foreign Relaions and he U.S. Senae Armed Services Commitee.

Kaulis has conduced exensive research on he ground in he Middle Eas, where

he has lived and worked in a number o counries, including Egyp, he Palesinian

erriories, Israel, and Jordan. His pas experience includes work a he Naional

Securiy Council and he U.S. Deparmens o Sae and Deense during Presiden

Bill Clinon’s adminisraion. He also worked or Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Research, he Naional Democraic Insiue or Inernaional Affairs, Freedom

House, and ormer Pennsylvania Gov. Rober Casey (D).

Kaulis received a maser’s degree rom Princeon Universiy’s Woodrow Wilson

School or Public and Inernaional Affairs and a bachelor’s degree in hisory and

Arab and Islamic Sudies rom Villanova Universiy. In 1994 and 1995, he was a

Fulbrigh scholar in Jordan. Kaulis regularly provides commenary on leading

elevision and radio programs, including “PBS NewsHour” and Naional Public

Radio. He has also published aricles in several leading newspapers, including Te

New York imes , Te Washington Post , and Te Wall Street Journal. He is co-auhor

wih Nancy Soderberg o Te Prosperity Agenda , a book on U.S. naional securiy

published by John Wiley & Sons in 2008.

Rudy deLeon is a Senior Fellow wih he Naional Securiy and Inernaional

Policy eam a he Cener. He has worked a he organizaion since 2007 and

ocuses on U.S. naional securiy issues. His 25-year governmen career con-

cluded in 2001 afer his enure as depuy secreary o deense, during which

ime he served as he chie operaing officer a he Penagon; a member o he

Depuies Commitee o he Naional Securiy Council; and a member o he U.S.

Deparmen o Veerans Affairs Naional Parnership Council on labor manage-

men issues. In earlier Penagon assignmens, deLeon served as undersecreary o

deense or personnel and readiness rom 1997 o 2000 and as undersecreary ohe U.S. Air Force rom 1994 o 1997.


21/25


Peter Juul is a Policy Analys wih he Naional Securiy and Inernaional Policy

eam a he Cener, where he has worked on U.S. oreign policy in he Middle Eas

since 2006. His work has appeared in Wired , Aviation Week and Space echnology ,

he Philadelphia Inquirer , Foreign Policy , and oher venues.

Mokhtar Awad is a research ellow in he Program on Exremism a George Washingon Universiy’s Cener on Cyber & Homeland Securiy. He specializes in

Islamis and Salafis groups in he Middle Eas region and regional poliics, wih

a special ocus on emerging violen exremis organizaions and heir ideas. Prior

o joining he Program on Exremism, Mokhar worked as a Research Associae

a he Cener or American Progress and as a junior ellow in he Middle Eas

Program a he Carnegie Endowmen or Inernaional Peace.

John B. Craig is a Senior Fellow a he Cener. During his disinguished career as a

member o he U.S. Foreign Service, he held numerous assignmens boh over-

seas and in he Deparmen o Sae. He served as a diploma in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egyp, and Haii. Craig speaks Arabic, French, and Spanish. He was

he ambassador o he Sulanae o Oman rom 1998 o 2001. He was also a spe-

cial assisan o Presiden George W. Bush and served on he saff o he Naional

Securiy Council. In June 2003, he was appoined as Boeing Company’s regional

vice presiden in he Middle Eas. Craig joined Te Jadwin Group as ull parner

in March 2008 and ran is Middle Eas and Norh Arica operaions as manag-

ing direcor. Craig has been he ambassador in residence o he Cener or Global

Undersanding and Peacemaking a Elizabehown College in Elizabehown,

Pennsylvania, since July 2010.


22/25


Acknowledgments

Muah Al Wari and Hardin Lang, our colleagues on he Middle Eas eam a he

Cener, provided valuable eedback on he repor hroughou he wriing process.

Elisa Caalano Ewers, he ormer direcor or he Middle Eas and Norh Arica

on he Naional Securiy Council, reviewed drafs o he repor and gave consruc-ive criicism. Tanks also o Carl Chancellor, Vicoria Ford, Meghan Miller, and

everyone else on he Cener’s Ediorial and Ar eams who helped polish and

publish his repor.


23/25


Endnotes

1 Michael D. Shear and Ben Hubbard, “Obama and KingSalman of Saudi Arabia Meet, but Deep Rifts Remain,”The New York Times, April 20, 2016, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/21/world/middleeast/obama-arrives-in-saudi-arabia-amid-a-new-round-of-contention.html.

2 Brian Katulis and Peter Juul, “U.S. Middle East Policy ata Time of Regional Fragmentation and Competition:Lessons for U.S. Policy from the Past Three Years” (Wash-ington: Center for American Progress, 2014), availableat https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/06/16/91809/u-s-middle-east-policy-at-a-time-of-regional-fragmentation-and-competition/.

3 David Remnick, “Going the Distance,” The New Yorker , January 27, 2014, available at http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/27/going-the-distance-david-remnick .

4 Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” The Atlantic ,April 2016, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doc-trine/471525/; Prince Turki Al-Faisal, “Mr. Obama, we arenot ‘ free riders’,” Arab News, March 14, 2016, available athttp://www.arabnews.com/news/894826.

5 Thanassis Cambanis, “Iran and Saudi Arabia DoubleDown on a Cold War Neither Can Win,” Newsweek,January 9, 2016, available at http://www.newsweek.com/2016/01/22/iran-and-saudi-arabia-double-down-cold-war-neither-can-win-413623.html.

6 Shear and Hubbard, “Obama and King Salman of SaudiArabia Meet, but Deep Rifts Remain.”

7 White House Office of the Press Secretary, “UnitedStates-Gulf Cooperation Council Second Summit Lead-ers Communique,” April 21, 2016, available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/21/united-states-gulf-cooperation-council-second-sum-mit-leaders-communique.

8 Brian Katulis, “U.S.-Saudi Ties Tested by Middle EastUpheaval,” World Politics Review, September 26, 2013,

available at http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13249/u-s-saudi-ties-tested-by-middle-east-upheaval.

9 Nearly three-quarters of Americans do not think theSaudi government respects the personal freedoms ofits people, and some 58 percent have an u nfavorableopinion of the Kingdom. See Richard Wike, “The worldgives Saudi Arabia poor marks on freedoms,” Fact Tank, March 28, 2014, available at http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/28/the-world-gives-saudi-arabia-poor-marks-on-freedoms/; Frank Newport andIgor Himelfarb, “Americans Least Favorable Toward Iran,”Gallup, March 7, 2013, available at http://www.gallup.com/poll/161159/americans-least-favorable-toward-iran.aspx. President Obama has privately blamed SaudiArabia’s influence for increasing religious fundamental-ism in Muslim-majority countries, while former U.S.State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism

Daniel Benjamin argued, “A solid line of causation fromthe slaughter in Islamic State-controlled Iraq and thetragedy of 9/11 traces back directly to Saudi evange-lization and the many radical mosques and extremist[nongovernmental organizations] it spawned.” Further-

more, Algerian novelist Kamel Daoud directly linkedSaudi and Islamic State practices in the opinion pagesof The New York Times. See Goldberg, “The ObamaDoctrine”; Daniel Benjamin, “The King and ISIS,”ForeignPolicy , September 10, 2015, available at http://foreign-policy.com/2015/09/10/the-king-and-isis-saudi-arabia-egypt-iraq/; Kamel Daoud, “Saudi Arabia, an ISIS ThatHas Made It,” The New York Times, November 20, 2015,available at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opin-ion/saudi-arabia-an-isis-that-has-made-it.html.

10 Kristen Breit weiser and others, “Our Saudi ‘Friends’,” TheNew York Times, April 5, 2016, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/opinion/our-saudi-friends.html; Steve Kroft, “28 Pages,” 60 Minutes, April 10,2016, available at http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/.

11 Katulis, “U.S.-Saudi Ties Tested by Middle East Upheaval.”

12 Brian Katulis, “How Saudi Arabia Is Expanding Its Rolein the Middle East,” The Wall Street Journal , December13, 2015, available at http://blogs.wsj.com/wash-wire/2015/12/13/how-saudi-arabia-is-expanding-its-role-in-the-middle-east/.

13 Brian Katulis and Mokhtar Awad, “After Saudi PowerShuffle, New Tests Await U.S.-Saudi Ties,” World PoliticsReview, May 8, 2015, available at http://www.world-politicsreview.com/articles/15722/after-saudi-power-shuffle-new-tests-await-u-s-saudi-ties.

14 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Crude oilprices down sharply in fourth quarter of 2014,” January6, 2015, available at https://www.eia.gov/today-inenergy/detail.cfm?id=19451; Nasdaq, “Crude Oil,”available at http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=7d (last accessed March 2016).

15 Vivian Nereim, “Saudi December Net Foreign AssetsDrop More Than $19 Billion,” Bloomberg, January 28,2016, available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-set-for-oil-record-as-it-mulls-action-with-opec-on-prices.

16 Angus McDowall and Reem Shamseddine, “Sau-dis looking at raising domestic energy prices – oilminister,” Reuters, October 27, 2015, available at http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUK-KCN0SL1C620151027.

17 Saudi government official, interview with authors,Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 9, 2015.

18 Neil MacFarquhar, “In Saudi Arabia, Royal Funds BuyPeace for Now,”The New York Times, June 8, 2011, avail-able at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09saudi.html.

19 Reuters, “Gulf States prep tax laws ahead of 2018rollout,” Al Arabiya English, January 14, 2016, availableat http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/econo-my/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.html; Reuters, “Saudi Arabia reveals cuts

plan to shrink $98bn budget deficit,” The Guardian, December 28, 2015, available at http://www.theguard-ian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficit.

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gy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09saudi.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09saudi.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficithttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/01/14/Gulf-states-prep-VAT-laws-ahead-of-2018-rollout.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09saudi.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09saudi.htmlhttp://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-energy-prices-idUKKCN0SL1C620151027http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-set-for-oil-record-as-it-mulls-action-with-opec-on-priceshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-set-for-oil-record-as-it-mulls-action-with-opec-on-priceshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-set-for-oil-record-as-it-mulls-action-with-opec-on-priceshttp://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=7dhttp://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=7dhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19451https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19451http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/15722/after-saudi-power-shuffle-new-tests-await-u-s-saudi-tieshttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/15722/after-saudi-power-shuffle-new-tests-await-u-s-saudi-tieshttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/15722/after-saudi-power-shuffle-new-tests-await-u-s-saudi-tieshttp://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/13/how-saudi-arabia-is-expanding-its-role-in-the-middle-east/http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/13/how-saudi-arabia-is-expanding-its-role-in-the-middle-east/http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/13/how-saudi-arabia-is-expanding-its-role-in-the-middle-east/http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-911-classified-report-steve-kroft/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/opinion/our-saudi-friends.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/opinion/our-saudi-friends.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/opinion/our-saudi-friends.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opinion/saudi-arabia-an-isis-that-has-made-it.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opinion/saudi-arabia-an-isis-that-has-made-it.htmlhttp://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/10/the-king-and-isis-saudi-arabia-egypt-iraq/http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/10/the-king-and-isis-saudi-arabia-egypt-iraq/http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/10/the-king-and-isis-saudi-arabia-egypt-iraq/http://www.gallup.com/poll/161159/americans-least-favorable-toward-iran.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/161159/americans-least-favorable-toward-iran.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/161159/americans-least-favorable-toward-iran.aspxhttp://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/28/the-world-gives-saudi-arabia-poor-marks-on-freedoms/http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/28/the-world-gives-saudi-arabia-poor-marks-on-freedoms/http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/28/the-world-gives-saudi-arabia-poor-marks-on-freedoms/http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13249/u-s-saudi-ties-tested-by-middle-east-upheavalhttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13249/u-s-saudi-ties-tested-by-middle-east-upheavalhttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13249/u-s-saudi-ties-tested-by-middle-east-upheavalhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/21/united-states-gulf-cooperation-council-second-summit-leaders-communiquehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/21/united-states-gulf-cooperation-council-second-summit-leaders-communiquehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/21/united-states-gulf-cooperation-council-second-summit-lea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24/25


20 Perry Cammack and David Livingston, “The Prince andPolitics Behind a Saudi Aramco IPO,” Carnegie Endow-ment for International Peace, January 15, 2016, avail-able at http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/15/prince-and-politics-behind-saudi-aramco-ipo/isnl;The Economist , “Saudi Arabia is considering an IPO ofAramco, probably the world’s most valuable company,” January 7, 2016, available at http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21685529-biggest-oil-all-saudi-arabia-considering-ipo-aramco-probably;Michael J. de la Merced, “Saudi Aramco I.P.O. Is Weighedby Kingdom,” DealBook, January 7, 2016, available at

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/business/deal-book/saudi-aramco-ipo-is-weighed-by-kingdom.html.

21 John Micklethwait and others, “Saudi Arabia Plans$2 Trillion Megafund for Post-Oil Era: Deputy CrownPrince,” Bloomberg, April 1, 2016, available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/saudi-arabia-plans-2-trillion-megafund-to-dwarf-all-its-rivals.



24 Cammack and Livingston, “The Prince and PoliticsBehind a Saudi Aramco IPO.”

25 Elizabeth Dickinson, “In tougher times, more Saudi

women drive for social change,” The Christian ScienceMonitor, March 15, 2016, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2016/0315/In-tougher-times-more-Saudi-women-drive-for-social-change?cmpid=gigya-tw.

26 U.S. Department of State, Saudi Arabia: Country Reportson Human Rights Practices for 2015, available at http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm?year=2015&dlid=252945#wrapper(lastaccessed April 2016).

27 The Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2015 “DemocracyIndex 2015,” for instance, ranked Saudi Arabia 160th outof 167 countries. See Economist I ntelligence Unit, “De-mocracy Index 2015: Democracy in an Age of Anxiety”(2016), available at h ttp://www.eiu.com/public/topi-cal_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2015.

28 Human Rights First, “Compendium of Blasphemy Laws”(2014), available at http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/sites/default/files/Compendium-Blasphemy-Laws.pdf; Human Rights Watch, “Saudi Arabia: A Move to CurbReligious Police Abuses,” April 18, 2016, available athttps://www.hrw.org/news/2016/04/18/saudi-arabia-move-curb-religious-police-abuses-0.

29 Ian Black, “A look at the writings of Saudi blogger RaifBadawi – sentenced to 1,000 lashes,” The Guardian, January 14, 2015, available at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/14/-sp-saudi-blogger-extracts-raif-badawi.

30 “Saudi Arabia’s religious police ordered to be ‘gentle’,”BBC News, April 13, 2016, available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36034807.

31 Jen Pskai, “Statement on the Sentence of Saudi Human

Rights Activist Raif Badawi,” Press release, U.S. Depart-ment of State, January 8, 2015, available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/01/235704.htm; UnitedStates Commission on International Religious Freedom,“USCIRF Letter to Saudi King Salman Requesting thePardon of Raif Badawi and Waleed Abu al-Khair,” Pressrelease, June 11, 2015, available at http://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/press-releases/uscirf-letter-saudi-king-salman-requesting-the-pardon-raif-badawi-and.

32 Cole Bunzel, “The Kingdom and the Caliphate: Duel ofthe Islamic States” (Washington: Carnegie Endow-ment for International Peace, 2016), available at http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/02/18/kingdom-and-caliphate-duel-of-islamic-states/iu4w.

33 Senior Saudi government leader, interview withauthors, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 10, 2015.

34 Government Accountability Office, “Combating Terror-ism: U.S. Agencies Report Progress Countering Terror-ism and Its Financing in Saudi Arabia, but Continued

Focus on Counter Terrorism Financing Efforts Needed,”GAO-09-883, Report to Congressional Requesters,September 2009, available at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09883.pdf .

35 Brian Katulis, “The Twilight of Saudi Power,” The Atlantic ,January 27, 2015, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/01/the-twilight-of-saudi-power/384858/.


37 Ibid.

38 Ibid.

39 Rod Nordland, “Saudi Arabia Promises to Aid Egypt’sRegime,” The New York Times, August 19, 2013, available

at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/world/mid-dleeast/saudi-arabia-vows-to-back-egypts-rulers.html.

40 Anne Barnard, “Saudi Arabia Cuts Billions in Aid toLebanon, Opening Door for Iran,” The New York Times, March 2, 2016, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-cuts-billions-in-aid-to-lebanon-opening-door-for-iran.html.


42 Ibid.

43 World Economic Forum, “The Global Gender Gap Re-port 2015” (2015), available at http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GGGR2015/cover.pdf.

44 Christopher M. Blanchard, “Saudi Arabia: Background

and U.S. Relations” (Washington: CongressionalResearch Service, 2016), available at http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33533.pdf .

45 Michael Knights, “Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen(Part 2): The Air War,” The Washington Institute, March25, 2016, available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/gulf-coalition-operations-in-yemen-part-2-the-air-war; Human Rights Watch,“Yemen: US Bombs Used in Deadliest Market Strike,”April 7, 2016, available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/04/07/yemen-us-bombs-used-deadliest-market-strike.

46 Joe Gould, “Senators Want Legislation To Limit USBomb Sales to Saudi Arabia,” Defense News, April 12,2016, available at http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/04/12/bill-would-limit-us-bomb-sales-saudi-arabia/82942344/.


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Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties to Reflect the New Realities of Today’s Middle East